I mentioned these three picks in today’s VSiN Daily, but here’s the deeper dive into how I got there.

I went through Steve Makinen’s Week 4 college football Analytics Report and weighed the systems, power ratings, team trends and latest DraftKings betting splits behind each play.

VSiNCollege Football Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 4Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share the college football betting trends you need to know for Week 4

One of the three actually changed after I looked at the latest splits.

Here’s the case for each.

Illinois +27.5 at Ohio State

This was probably the cleanest college football case.

Illinois shows up near the top of two different Steve Makinen ratings systems.

His Power Ratings have Illinois as the No. 3 underpriced underdog, showing 4.6 points of value.

His Bettors Ratings have the Illini No. 2, with 6.1 points of value.

There’s also a strong Illinois team trend: the Illini are 19-9 ATS in road or neutral games since 2021.

Then there’s one of Steve’s ranked-team systems.

Ranked home conference favorites of more than 14 points against unranked opponents are just 168-211-4 ATS, or 44.3%, and Ohio State -27.5 qualifies as a fade.

The DraftKings market is heavily tilted toward Ohio State: 78% of the spread handle and 80% of the bets are on the Buckeyes.

There are contradictory signals. One of Steve’s betting-split systems actually likes huge home favorites such as Ohio State. So this isn’t a case where everything agrees.

But I liked having two separate ratings models, the Illinois road trend and the ranked-favorite fade all pointing toward the same side.

The pick: Illinois +27.5

Wyoming +3 vs. Hawaii

This one kept getting better the more I dug.

Steve has Hawaii at just 15-27 ATS as a favorite, while Wyoming is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home conference games as an underdog.

There’s another Hawaii-specific trend: the Rainbow Warriors are just 4-18 ATS in their last 22 conference games as a single-digit favorite.

The series history also likes the home team. Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight Hawaii-Wyoming meetings.

And this isn’t just a collection of historical trends.

Steve’s Bettors Ratings make Wyoming the No. 4 underpriced underdog this week, showing 5.4 points of value.

Meanwhile, the latest DraftKings market has 77% of the spread handle and 74% of the bets on Hawaii -3.

So we’ve got several pieces of Steve’s data pointing toward the home dog while the market is heavily backing the road favorite.

That was enough for me.

The pick: Wyoming +3

Boston College +14 vs. Virginia Tech

This is the one that changed.

I originally had James Madison-Old Dominion Over 44.5 as my third play.

Then I looked at the updated betting splits and went back through the BC-Virginia Tech numbers.

Steve’s Effective Yards Per Play calculation produces one of the biggest discrepancies anywhere in the report.

The actual line in his report was Virginia Tech -14.

His Effective YPP line was Boston College -0.3.

That’s a 14.3-point difference toward BC.

There are also some supporting team trends.

Virginia Tech is 10-24 ATS after a straight-up win, while Boston College is 29-18 ATS in conference games since 2020.

And home teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine Virginia Tech-Boston College meetings.

Then I looked at DraftKings:

87% of the spread handle and 81% of the bets are on Virginia Tech -14.

That lines up with two of Steve’s betting-split fade systems: one fading sides attracting very heavy handle and another fading majority-backed road favorites.

There is a big contradiction here that I don’t want to hide.

Steve’s Bettors Ratings actually favor Virginia Tech -14 by 5.8 points.

So this isn’t unanimous at all.

But that huge Effective YPP discrepancy, the BC trends and the lopsided betting market were enough for me to switch.

The pick: Boston College +14

So that’s the college football card:

Illinois +27.5 at Ohio State
Wyoming +3 vs. Hawaii
Boston College +14 vs. Virginia Tech

And yes, I changed one after looking at the updated market.

That’s really the point of this exercise. Steve’s report gives us a ton of information. The handicapping comes from deciding which pieces deserve the most weight.

These are my picks using Steve’s data, not Steve’s official Best Bets.

What did I miss? Post the bet you think has the strongest case from Steve’s report — and tell me why. If there’s a good one, I may feature it in VSiN Daily.

I mentioned these three picks in today’s VSiN Daily, but here’s the deeper dive into how I got there.

I went through Steve Makinen’s Week 3 NFL Analytics Report and looked for places where his systems, power ratings, team trends and betting splits were pointing in the same direction — or at least where the evidence was strong enough to outweigh the contradictions.

VSiNNFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 3Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share the NFL betting trends you need to know for NFL Week 3.

Here’s what I actually weighed on each game.

Lions -6.5 vs. Jets

This was the cleanest ratings convergence of the three.

Steve’s Power Ratings make Detroit the No. 4 underpriced favorite this week, with 2.7 points of value. His Effective Strength Ratings have the Lions No. 3 among underpriced favorites, with 3.7 points of value. And his Bettors Ratings also put Detroit No. 4, with 1.9 points of value.

So three different ways of measuring team strength all land on Detroit.

There is a counterpoint: the recent Jets-Lions series has favored underdogs, who are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The latest DraftKings market has Detroit -6.5 taking 74% of the spread handle and 67% of the bets.

For me, the ratings convergence carried more weight than the head-to-head trend.

The pick: Lions -6.5

Colts +1.5 vs. Texans

This one was actually stronger at the +2.5 in Steve’s original report, so we’ve lost a point.

But Indianapolis shows up near the top of all three of Steve’s ratings systems:

• No. 3 underpriced dog in the Power Ratings at +2.8 points of value

• No. 2 in Effective Strength at +3.2

• No. 1 in Bettors Ratings at +4.7

There are also a couple of team trends I liked.

Shane Steichen is on a 14-5 ATS run against poor offensive teams scoring fewer than 19 points per game, while Daniel Jones is 22-17 ATS when his team is coming off an outright loss.

The market is a little more interesting now. Houston has 73% of the spread handle but only 46% of the bets at DraftKings.

So the larger average wagers are currently landing on Houston.

That gave me some pause, especially after losing the point from +2.5 to +1.5. But the fact that all three of Steve’s ratings still favored Indianapolis was enough to keep me on the Colts.

The pick: Colts +1.5

Rams-Broncos Under 44.5

This one started at 45.5 in Steve’s report and is now down to 44.5, so again, the number isn’t quite as good.

But there are a lot of Under signals.

Steve’s Effective Strength Ratings made Rams-Broncos Under 45.5 the No. 2 Under edge of the week, with a 1.7-point difference from the market total.

His Sunday Night Football data also says non-conference SNF games have gone 32-15 to the Under in the last 47.

Then there are the team trends:

• Rams: 19-9 Under in primetime

• Broncos: 21-7 Under in primetime since 2017

• Rams: 8-2 Under in their recent SNF sample

• Denver: 111-75 Under overall since 2015

There is a contradiction: Matthew Stafford is 24-12 to the Over when playing on short rest.

But the latest betting splits strengthen the Under case: 87% of the total handle is on the Under despite only 42% of the bets.

I don’t love losing the point from 45.5 to 44.5, but there’s enough convergence here for me to stay with it.

The pick: Rams-Broncos Under 44.5

Lions -6.5
Colts +1.5
Rams-Broncos Under 44.5

These are my picks using Steve’s data, not Steve’s official Best Bets.

What did I miss? If there’s another game in Steve’s report where you think the evidence is stronger, make the case below. I’m interested in seeing what everyone else pulls out of the same data.

Love it when a bet wins early. PCA +140 in the first inning

Some individual player benchmarks to watch today:

Paul Skenes needs eight strikeouts for 200 on the season

Hunter Goodman needs one HR for 40

Rafael Devers needs three HR for 40; also needs two RBI for 100

Manny Machado, Max Muncy, Elly De La Cruz need one HR for 30

Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper need two HR for 30

Junior Caminero, Ben Rice need three RBI for 100

Pete Crow-Armstrong needs one SB for 40

Jose Ramirez, Fernando Tatis Jr. need four SB for 40

Josh Naylor, Elly De La Cruz need one SB for 30

Oneil Cruz needs two SB for 30

What's your favorite of the bunch?

Ignoring all the stats and analytics, just using my eye test the first two weeks.

First the Falcons, they had a shot week one against Pittsburgh but failed to capitalize with a bad turnover leading to the go ahead Watt TD. They looked like the worst team in football against Carolina in a game that was over quick, so Bijan really couldn't make an impact. AJ Terrell being out will not make it any easier on this bottom tier defense. Having Penix back at the helm, hopefully healthy should keep this a competitive game.

Now to Green Bay, they have looked explosive at times, and just downright lazy at others. Vikings have a good defense, and I think the Jets defense is better than what most people think. BUT Green Bay is a poor 4th quarter gameplan from Aaron Glenn away from being a miserable 0-2. Jayden Reed injury doesn't do much for this offense since Watson and Kraft are the primaries. Something just seems "off" in Green Bay and I think it starts at the HC.

To my game bets:

Falcons ML(.5 unit) - desperate team, Lambeau isn't that intimidating in September

Kraft over 45.5 rec yards(1 unit) - Waller and Muth both ripped up ATL.

Bijan Parlay - ATTD & 100 rush/rec yards(1 unit) - Bijan will get fed this game, only way they have a chance

Pitts 1st TD(.25 unit) - Penix favorite target, will be looking for him ALOT

Green Bay has had trouble moving the ball and their offensive line has looked bad and now will be without their best lineman in Bako-Bewele. Their o line ranks 32nd in win rate. Also two other o linemen are injured they've had to play several different combos at guard and tackle vs the jets and looked terrible. They definitely miss Josh jacobs, a very underrated top ten running back who makes Love better and the mediocre o line better. Jacobs is consistent and even if there is no room will get you 4 yards. They lucked out vs the jets as they were the first team in NFL history to have under 200 yards, five fumbles and 14 penalties (for -133 yards) to win a game. Atlanta still has bijan Robinson and get a boost at qb which clearly has been their biggest issue, with Penix returning. Packers also miss Parsons. Last yr green bay started strong looked like the best team in football in October but gradually got worse as season progressed. This yr I see them exact opposite they are playing bad football, and are missing key players, two of whom should be back by mid season in Micah and Josh. Gr bays goal has to be to get to 3-5 or 4-4 and see if they can fix the line by week 10 and make a 2nd h push. Atlanta is in desperation mode at 0-2 esp with Carolina and New Orleans clearly looking like div faves. Still at 0-3 they aren't going to ever be eliminated in the .500 division; where 8 wins has been all u needed to win it twice in the last 4 years 8-9 won it and 9-8 was the # in 2023. They will learn on Bijan tomorrow heavily both on the ground and in the air as they will ease Penix into the game with short passes to bijan and TE Pitts with wr1 Drake London mixed in with deeper routes. I can see Atlanta winning this game outright. Certainly improving the offense with Penix over the poor play of the 3rd &4th stringers they trotted out first two weeks. Defensively Atlanta has the players to at least come close to matching what the jets did last week under DC Jeff Ulbrich. Zdarius Smith returns to Lambeau and already has 2.5 sacks for Atlanta I expect a lot of pressures from a motivated Smith vs his old team, he put up 26 sacks for the Pack over two years span 2019-2020. Line value still there after lookahead line was 7.5 now down to 4.5. anything over a fg I love Atlanta. Again on lookahead line the total was 46.5 now is 42.5 so no value there. I lean under but not strong. The first half under may be worth a play as typically these Thursday games have a way of starting slow and staying under so first h under 21.5 should come in but we missed the best # for the game. There is one more Falcon positive stat, teams coming off overtime games favored by single digits and playing teams on a short week who had no overtime previous week are 0-15 ats last 15 and failed to cover on avg by 12.5 points! Take desperate 0-2 Atlanta plus 4.5 and a little on the $ line

Maybe getting on the road will help The Chargers.

The Atlanta Falcons haven't showed me nothing this season so far. GB has been a little better. But at home GB should romp they should win by at least 2 TD's this line is a little low I think. So jump on it while it is. AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

While I am usually a ‘dog’ and ‘under’ player, Thursday NFL spots can be quite unique.

Last Thursday’s result between Detroit and Buffalo saw the ‘total’ sail ‘over’ and the Bills get the ‘chalk’ cover. Green Bay similarly gets their home opener here after two weeks on the road. This should have the Packers fired up and even trying to put this one away early.

Atlanta heads north after a dismal 34-3 loss at home to the Carolina Panthers. While I don’t see much of a different result here, the Falcons should be good for some late catchup scoring to “front door” a cash for the ‘over.’

The lines have dropped to Packers -5.5 and a ‘total’ of 43.5. I always prefer going against movement and grabbing late value. Likely, bettors are ‘steaming’ Atlanta since Green Bay is coming off an overtime win this past Sunday. That worked last Thursday in backing the Bills when the Lions headed east after an extra period, but the Falcons are a drop in class.

Take Green Bay -5.5 and the ‘over’ 43.5 in straight up bets. The ‘square’ bankrolls should get a rebounding boost from this one after Sunday’s Week 2 action went mostly the other way.

The Atlanta Falcons with Michael Penix could easily be 0-3 after Thursdays matchup. Michael Penix is frail and could be sitting by halftime. Bijon Robinson will be keyed upon by the Green Bay defense. Atlanta will very possibly be calling on the ghost of Steve Bartkowski here to rescue Arthur Blank from the “worst owners” round table.

Share your analysis on the Falcons-Packers game. We publish the best ones in the VSiN Daily newsletter on Thursday.