Been debating who to ladder up in NFL Week 3. Finally settling on Cam Skattebo. I wrote in my VSiN.com article about why myself and OptaAI both like Skattebo over rush yards this week. To add to that analysis we are looking at an 80% chance of rain, wind gusts up to 43 mph. Breece Hall was strong vs Tennessee with 102 rushing yards in Week 1. Saquon Barkley was injured just 4 carries into their Week 2 matchup so we didn’t get to see what he could do. Let’s ride with Skatt who doesn’t have a ton of competition for carries and will be vital in the Giants avoiding Jameis Winston turning the ball over:

58+ -114

70+ +152

80+ +220

90+ +340

100+ +550

VSiNFavorite Week 3 NFL Player Props from Dustin Swedelson and OptaAICashing Out host Dustin Swedelson uses our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections and his own analysis for his favorite Week 3 bets.

There seem to be alot of numbers staring me in the face that I love, which means - UH OH I'm going to have a rough Sunday. But with that being said, one line that is just punching me in the face is the Titans as a dog @ NYG. Granted the Nor'easter is going to affect this game - the revenge factor of Brian Daboll coming back and how terrible Winston looked last week leads me to think the Titans can get this done. Tennessee had the Eagles number all last week and couldn't get the job done. Tomorrow, Salah has the defense shut down the Giants lackluster run game and force Winston to beat them through the air...and well Winston just doesn't have that magic any longer.

Bets below:

Titans ML - 1 unit

Pollard ATTD - 1 unit, Giants have given up multiple TDs to the RB the first 2 weeks.

Jameis INT - 1 unit

Jameis 2 INT's - .5 unit.

Hey everyone. Coming up on Cashing Out tonight 10pm Eastern, I'll talk about the market reaction to QB Injuries and if the market has moved too much. Plus my Bettor Day Trench Report, RB Prop Bets and more! Join the conversation!

I'd love to read your comments, questions, betting angles, etc. during the show tonight!

Circa Grandissimo Week 3: 30 picks across 5 teams. Chalk is Chiefs at 50.0% of the field.

30 entries still alive, $256,667 implied value.

Circa Survivor Week 3: 8,607 picks across 23 teams. Chalk is Chiefs at 51.1% of the field.

8,110 entries still alive, $3,085 implied value.

Not going to lie, the shrimp tacos that they had on last night looked delicious!

For my best bet on Sunday’s Week 3 NFL card, I am backing the Washington Commanders +7.5, who host the Seattle Seahawks. I also used it in VSiN’s “Average Joe” contest, hoping a contrarian play will help pick up some ground.

The Seahawks head east after a 31-7 thrashing of the Arizona Cardinals, and also expect to have quarterback Sam Darnold returning under center. While the defending Super Bowl champs go into this battle with momentum, it is a tricky spot for Darnold and Co.

Washington will have backup Marcus Mariota calling the signals, who did not see action in the Commanders’ 38-14 home defeat against the Seahawks last season. Mariota had his share of moments for Washington during 2025, with five of his first seven starts seeing either outright wins notched or defeats by seven points or less. Although the Commanders have logged two losses so far this season, a change at the passing helm could give Washington some spark for its home opener.

Mariota and Co. may also have a ‘back door cover’ chance here should Seattle have a “get in and get out” mindset for this one. Upcoming weeks are travel-friendly for the Seahawks with two home games to start October, and not flying east of the Mountain time zone until December.

The line movement in this duel has been fueled by injury news on the quarterbacks, which soared the ‘number’ north to 7.5 at Circa Sports. Other betting boards have reached as high as 8 for the point spread, making it worth shopping for value. This feels like a double overreaction from Circa’s lookahead line of 2, setting up a good spot for the ‘home dog’ to collect.

BYU 5/1 Big 12

Give us your tired, your poor, and your weak..... 

Living here in SEC Country (Lexington, Kentucky), it’s all about the SEC. Lexington likes its basketball, but College Football is King in the South. 

And nothing beats a good Conference Road Dog in College Football or College Basketball, especially when those Dogs have no public support. In the SEC, they love frontrunners and favorites. That’s why those Dogs are so beautiful, especially early in Conference Season. 

Betting Splits are available at vsin.com and Betting Systems date back to the 2005 season. 

OKLAHOMA +13.5 at Georgia 

The Sooners have done nothing in the last 2 weeks to impress anyone! From losing a game to Michigan on the road in which they were favored, to barely scraping by New Mexico at home last week, nothing says they have a chance heading to Athens this week. While Georgia is perfect this season (3-0 SU and ATS), a road win at Arkansas isn’t exactly one to highlight on the resume once the season ends. Easy win and cover for UGA, right? Not so fast..... 

Betting Splits: As of Saturday morning, 79% of bets are on Georgia. But 71% of the money is on Oklahoma. That’s the Sharp money with the Sooners. 

Line moves: With a majority of tickets on Georgia to cover, why has this line gone from Oklahoma +14 earlier in the week to its current +13.5? We always like to follow the Reverse Line Move. 

Betting System: SEC Road Dogs where the total is 48 or less cover 57% of the time (129-98). The total in this one is 43.5. 

Best Bet: Oklahoma ATS 

VANDERBILT +10 at Auburn 

Auburn is coming off a home loss to Florida, in which both teams put up impressive offensive numbers. And of course, all Sports Bettors remember the Vandy Miracle against NC State. That game will be at the top of Bad Beats lists forever! How does Vandy bounce back after that?  

Betting Splits: Tickets are even at 50% on each side, but a whopping 94% of the money is on Auburn to cover.  

Line Moves: This is a Steam move. All that Auburn money has moved Auburn –8.5 from last weekend to its current Auburn –10. 

Betting System: Vandy is the best Conference Road Dog in the country since 2005, and it’s not close. Vandy is 49-31 ATS (61%) in this spot. No Power 4 Conference Team is close. Here in the South, mentioning Vandy Football has been followed by Dad Jokes for years. But they cash tickets, often undervalued. 

Best Bet: Vanderbilt ATS 

SOUTH CAROLINA +12.5 at Alabama 

Alabama is 3-0 SU, and 2-1 ATS. They’ve scored 143 points in 3 games, 2 of which were against Power 4 programs. While South Carolina lost at home last week to Mississippi State, a team that was tied for the lowest preseason Win Total in the SEC. And after that game, SC fans are calling for their coach’s job. Welcome to the SEC. 

Betting Splits: 61% of the bets are on Alabama to cover this spread. But 64% of the money is on South Carolina. That’s the Sharps siding with SC. 

Line Moves: This line was Alabama –13 last Sunday night. It was quickly bet down to AL –12.5, and some places –12, before settling on its current –12.5. 

Betting System: 10 days ago, the look ahead Total in this game was 46.5. After Alabama has scored all these points, this total is now 54.5. That’s an 8-point move on the Total! History says that overreaction helps the Conference Road Dog. When a Total jumps 3 or more points from its opener, the Conference Road Dog covers 55% of the time (362-300). That includes 2-0 this season. 

Best Bet: South Carolina ATS 

Catch Will Hill and me on VSiN Live Bet Saturday today from 3P-6P ET as we watch games and react to Live Betting Lines. Cash some tickets today! 

I'd be paying attention to the overnight tennis action in Asia no matter what, but I'm especially dialed into my handicapping for it now. I'm currently in New York with my family for my sister-in-law's engagement party, and my wife unfortunately has some type of stomach virus. That means I'm on baby duty with our one-year-old all day, so the only "me time" I'm getting is when everyone else is asleep. So, I'm currently doing some of my write-ups for the site, watching Indiana beat Northwestern, and diving into some tennis odds. One match I like:

Roman Safiullin ML (-137) over Quentin Halys in Hangzhou

I always like it when a higher ranked player is favored in a match. It's like the NCAA Tournament when you see a 12 favored over a 5. Well, Halys is No. 49 in the world, but he's an underdog against a player that sits outside the Top 100.

Outside of that, Safiullin is just a much better baseline player. Halys is really a serve-first player that has very little to his game. I'll lean on Safiullin's solid all-around play here. Best of luck if you're joining me, and I'll have some more on the Pro Picks page!

Wandale should be a nice Play for tomorrow against his old team and I also like the Titans to win 😄

If you had a $1,000 free bet - who are you placing it on to win the American League pennant and why?

Odds at Circa, as of Friday afternoon, September 25:

Rays +225

Yankees +400

Guardians +475

White Sox +625

Red Sox +650

Astros +875

Rangers 22/1

My choice & reasoning: WHITE SOX +625

Can they win the pennant? Probably not. But remember: it's a FREE BET and their pathway presents excellent positive expected value, whether they end up as the No.2 or 6 seed. At worst, they'll be underdogs in ANY potential matchup for the ALCS - putting you in the driver's seat to, at minimum, guarantee profit by betting their opponent on the series price.

I hit the Drake London receptions ladder on TNF at VSiN.com/Picks. Who should we eye for Sunday? The first names I considered:

David Montgomery Rush Yards

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards

Cam Skattebo Rush Yards

Does Kyle Pitts stink? Betting his unders for the rest of eternity.

Army at Temple

Jeff Monken

• 6-4 ATS, 6-4 Under road fav 7 or less

• 17-12 ATS, 15-13 Under vs conference

KC Keeler

• 6-2 ATS career as home dog 7 or less, 8-4 as dog

• 5-0 ATS when total 42.5-49, 4-1

Northwestern at Indiana

David Braun

• 1-2 ATS, 2-1 Over road dog 14.5-21

Curt Cignetti

• 0-1 ATS, 1-0 Under home fav 14.5-21

• 10-8 ATS, 11-7 Over home fav overall

• 12-7 ATS, 13-6 Over when total between 49.5-56

Clemson at California

Dabo Swinney

• 7-12 ATS road fav 7 or less

• 19-10 Under when line +3 to -3

Here is a summary of the field for Circa Survivor heading into Week #3.

Chargers have already taken out over 35% of of the field. Yikes!!!

https://data.vsin.com/contests/circa-survivor/

VSiNCirca Survivor 2026 - OverviewEvery pick, every elimination, teams left and entry lookup for Circa Survivor, updated weekly.

Somewhat similar list to yesterday, but some batters did get closer to the round numbers.

Jacob deGrom needs four strikeouts for 200

Hunter Goodman needs one HR for 40

Rafael Devers needs three HR for 40; also needs two RBI for 100

Manny Machado, Max Muncy, Nolan Arenado (homered yesterday) need one HR for 30

Jordan Walker, Bryce Harper need two HR for 30

Junior Caminero needs one RBI for 100 (had two yesterday)

Ben Rice needs three RBI for 100

Fernando Tatis Jr. needs two SB for 40 (stole two yesterday)

Jose Ramirez needs three SB for 40 (stole one yesterday)

Josh Naylor, Elly De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz (stole one yesterday) need one SB for 30

I like Tatis 1+ SB (+496) and think 2+ SB at (+3600) is worth a shot.

Any of these you would play? Like others?

Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers
Friday September 25th 9:30PM PACIFIC | Watch on FS1

Before we get into this, I am an AFL casual. I understand general rules, know a player or two but I really enjoy watching this sport. It's fascinating how similar and alien it feels the first time you ever see it.

If you have never heard of or watched the sport, here is the quickest synopsis I can give. The field is massive, ranging anywhere from 140-180 meters in length and 110-150 meters in width. 22 players on each team cover it at a time. Scoring is just like American football, 6 points for a goal and 1 point for a "behind". There are four posts at the end of each side of the field, kick it through the middle and you get 6 points, kick it through either side and get 1 point. The final scores end up looking like an NBA game, and all of this goes on with rugby style tackling.

Now to the game at hand, Fremantle and Brisbane have fought their way to this point. The Lions find themselves in a historic spot, one that sports fans anywhere understanding the difficulty, winning three championships in a row. They won in 2024 & 2025 and look to defend their title again. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games, and 8-2 over their last 10.

The Dockers are coming off strong postseason wins over Sydney and Geelong, winners of 7 of their last 10 games. They also have done something rare in Fremantle, beat Brisbane in 2 of their last 3 meetings - including most recently in May of 2026 where the Dockers won 103-78.

I would be lying to your face if I was going down over technique, formations or even players. This is a sport I tune into in the middle of the night for pure entertainment, so please take all of this into account before placing a bet.

I really think this comes down to a situational spot that transcends this particular sport. Everyone knows how difficult the three-peat is.

Pick: Fremantle Dockers ML (+115)

I mentioned these three picks in today’s VSiN Daily, but here’s the deeper dive into how I got there.

I went through Steve Makinen’s Week 4 college football Analytics Report and weighed the systems, power ratings, team trends and latest DraftKings betting splits behind each play.

VSiNCollege Football Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 4Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share the college football betting trends you need to know for Week 4

One of the three actually changed after I looked at the latest splits.

Here’s the case for each.

Illinois +27.5 at Ohio State

This was probably the cleanest college football case.

Illinois shows up near the top of two different Steve Makinen ratings systems.

His Power Ratings have Illinois as the No. 3 underpriced underdog, showing 4.6 points of value.

His Bettors Ratings have the Illini No. 2, with 6.1 points of value.

There’s also a strong Illinois team trend: the Illini are 19-9 ATS in road or neutral games since 2021.

Then there’s one of Steve’s ranked-team systems.

Ranked home conference favorites of more than 14 points against unranked opponents are just 168-211-4 ATS, or 44.3%, and Ohio State -27.5 qualifies as a fade.

The DraftKings market is heavily tilted toward Ohio State: 78% of the spread handle and 80% of the bets are on the Buckeyes.

There are contradictory signals. One of Steve’s betting-split systems actually likes huge home favorites such as Ohio State. So this isn’t a case where everything agrees.

But I liked having two separate ratings models, the Illinois road trend and the ranked-favorite fade all pointing toward the same side.

The pick: Illinois +27.5

Wyoming +3 vs. Hawaii

This one kept getting better the more I dug.

Steve has Hawaii at just 15-27 ATS as a favorite, while Wyoming is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home conference games as an underdog.

There’s another Hawaii-specific trend: the Rainbow Warriors are just 4-18 ATS in their last 22 conference games as a single-digit favorite.

The series history also likes the home team. Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight Hawaii-Wyoming meetings.

And this isn’t just a collection of historical trends.

Steve’s Bettors Ratings make Wyoming the No. 4 underpriced underdog this week, showing 5.4 points of value.

Meanwhile, the latest DraftKings market has 77% of the spread handle and 74% of the bets on Hawaii -3.

So we’ve got several pieces of Steve’s data pointing toward the home dog while the market is heavily backing the road favorite.

That was enough for me.

The pick: Wyoming +3

Boston College +14 vs. Virginia Tech

This is the one that changed.

I originally had James Madison-Old Dominion Over 44.5 as my third play.

Then I looked at the updated betting splits and went back through the BC-Virginia Tech numbers.

Steve’s Effective Yards Per Play calculation produces one of the biggest discrepancies anywhere in the report.

The actual line in his report was Virginia Tech -14.

His Effective YPP line was Boston College -0.3.

That’s a 14.3-point difference toward BC.

There are also some supporting team trends.

Virginia Tech is 10-24 ATS after a straight-up win, while Boston College is 29-18 ATS in conference games since 2020.

And home teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine Virginia Tech-Boston College meetings.

Then I looked at DraftKings:

87% of the spread handle and 81% of the bets are on Virginia Tech -14.

That lines up with two of Steve’s betting-split fade systems: one fading sides attracting very heavy handle and another fading majority-backed road favorites.

There is a big contradiction here that I don’t want to hide.

Steve’s Bettors Ratings actually favor Virginia Tech -14 by 5.8 points.

So this isn’t unanimous at all.

But that huge Effective YPP discrepancy, the BC trends and the lopsided betting market were enough for me to switch.

The pick: Boston College +14

So that’s the college football card:

Illinois +27.5 at Ohio State
Wyoming +3 vs. Hawaii
Boston College +14 vs. Virginia Tech

And yes, I changed one after looking at the updated market.

That’s really the point of this exercise. Steve’s report gives us a ton of information. The handicapping comes from deciding which pieces deserve the most weight.

These are my picks using Steve’s data, not Steve’s official Best Bets.

What did I miss? Post the bet you think has the strongest case from Steve’s report — and tell me why. If there’s a good one, I may feature it in VSiN Daily.

I mentioned these three picks in today’s VSiN Daily, but here’s the deeper dive into how I got there.

I went through Steve Makinen’s Week 3 NFL Analytics Report and looked for places where his systems, power ratings, team trends and betting splits were pointing in the same direction — or at least where the evidence was strong enough to outweigh the contradictions.

VSiNNFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 3Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share the NFL betting trends you need to know for NFL Week 3.

Here’s what I actually weighed on each game.

Lions -6.5 vs. Jets

This was the cleanest ratings convergence of the three.

Steve’s Power Ratings make Detroit the No. 4 underpriced favorite this week, with 2.7 points of value. His Effective Strength Ratings have the Lions No. 3 among underpriced favorites, with 3.7 points of value. And his Bettors Ratings also put Detroit No. 4, with 1.9 points of value.

So three different ways of measuring team strength all land on Detroit.

There is a counterpoint: the recent Jets-Lions series has favored underdogs, who are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

The latest DraftKings market has Detroit -6.5 taking 74% of the spread handle and 67% of the bets.

For me, the ratings convergence carried more weight than the head-to-head trend.

The pick: Lions -6.5

Colts +1.5 vs. Texans

This one was actually stronger at the +2.5 in Steve’s original report, so we’ve lost a point.

But Indianapolis shows up near the top of all three of Steve’s ratings systems:

• No. 3 underpriced dog in the Power Ratings at +2.8 points of value

• No. 2 in Effective Strength at +3.2

• No. 1 in Bettors Ratings at +4.7

There are also a couple of team trends I liked.

Shane Steichen is on a 14-5 ATS run against poor offensive teams scoring fewer than 19 points per game, while Daniel Jones is 22-17 ATS when his team is coming off an outright loss.

The market is a little more interesting now. Houston has 73% of the spread handle but only 46% of the bets at DraftKings.

So the larger average wagers are currently landing on Houston.

That gave me some pause, especially after losing the point from +2.5 to +1.5. But the fact that all three of Steve’s ratings still favored Indianapolis was enough to keep me on the Colts.

The pick: Colts +1.5

Rams-Broncos Under 44.5

This one started at 45.5 in Steve’s report and is now down to 44.5, so again, the number isn’t quite as good.

But there are a lot of Under signals.

Steve’s Effective Strength Ratings made Rams-Broncos Under 45.5 the No. 2 Under edge of the week, with a 1.7-point difference from the market total.

His Sunday Night Football data also says non-conference SNF games have gone 32-15 to the Under in the last 47.

Then there are the team trends:

• Rams: 19-9 Under in primetime

• Broncos: 21-7 Under in primetime since 2017

• Rams: 8-2 Under in their recent SNF sample

• Denver: 111-75 Under overall since 2015

There is a contradiction: Matthew Stafford is 24-12 to the Over when playing on short rest.

But the latest betting splits strengthen the Under case: 87% of the total handle is on the Under despite only 42% of the bets.

I don’t love losing the point from 45.5 to 44.5, but there’s enough convergence here for me to stay with it.

The pick: Rams-Broncos Under 44.5

Lions -6.5
Colts +1.5
Rams-Broncos Under 44.5

These are my picks using Steve’s data, not Steve’s official Best Bets.

What did I miss? If there’s another game in Steve’s report where you think the evidence is stronger, make the case below. I’m interested in seeing what everyone else pulls out of the same data.