Riding with Javonte Williams and Mason Taylor this week:

Javonte Williams Ladder

RBs Last 4 Games vs Eagles during losing streak

CHI D’Andrew Swift 84

LAR Kyren Williams 80

JAX Bhayshel Tuten 72

CAR Chubba Hubbard 120

70+ +102

80+ +158

90+ +235

100+ +360

110+ +525

120+ +750

Hubbard is the best comparison to this matchup

• Javonte Williams will see bellcow carries like Chuba did…neither has threatening backups

• DAL like CAR was is a road favorite in Philly

• The Cowboys NEED this win to snap their losing skid

• If this game goes to plan they will be running with a lead late

• They need to avoid turnovers and wear this defense down

• PHI has allowed 156 RB carries, the most in the NFL

Mason Taylor

• Outsnapped Sadiq 75 to 35 last 2 weeks

• 4/33 at NE

• 3/24 vs CLE

• Last year vs MIA: 5/65 and 5/51

TEs vs MIA

1 LVR Mayer 6/32

2 SF Kittle 4/80

3 KC Kelce 2/59

4 MIN Hockenson 13/119

5 CIN Erick All 25, Hudson 14, Sample 5, Gesicki 4

Ladder:

23.5 -110

30+ +125

40+ +280

50+ +550

60+ +880

NEPats  +3 -105

Good luck one and all it’s already week 7 baby

Man I say it every year: don’t blink

🏈💰

Mitch Moss inspired me to build model P1 total model and love the two picks today Thanks for pointing me to this market.

Some data with recent results going into TNF. D'Andre Swift has 18 carries on the season during all combined first drives of the game for the Bears. That is the second highest number in the league behind Javonte Williams' 20. It's also 82% of Bears carries on the opening drive compared to 53.4% for Swift over the course of a full game.

Braelon Allen had 20 yards on the first drive alone last week vs. the Pats. Ashton Jeanty had 11 yards the week before, James Cook only 3 the week before that, and Bhayshul Tuten had 21 the week before.

The Patriots have won the coin toss 5 games through 6 weeks so far. They have deferred every time. The Bears lost the coin toss the first 5 weeks but won and received last week vs. Atlanta. There isn't enough data to suggest Ben Johnson will receive the ball if the Bears win the toss. That goes back to the start of 2025.

However, I played Swift 20+ yards in the 1Q at +122 at Boyd (FanDuel). I also sprinkled 5+ receiving yards at +164.

👑 LeBron most assists (+100)

Father Time has requested a meeting. Klutch has not responded.

Cashed at +110 against the Knicks on Tuesday. We’re playing this every game they offer plus money this season. The King distributes. We collect.

⚡ Tyrese Maxey most points (+300)
🔥 Jaylen Brown most points (+625)

Two Sixers. One scoring crown. My brain says Tyrese. My wallet is willing to hear Jaylen out. I’m counting on Brown’s defense to make Mitchell work for his points. And James Harden is… well, James Harden.

🏀 Sixers ML (-145)

There are men who climb mountains, men who cross oceans, and men who order gas station sushi. I salute their courage but I’m not mentally stable enough to lay points with this team two games into the season. Just win, we can discuss margin when we’ve established trust.

GO SIXERS.

Note: The points and assists markets are on the Caesars app under this game’s “Leaders” tab. These are game leaders, not leaders across the full day’s slate.

Just posted my write-ups for tonight's ESPN doubleheader. Anyone tailing?

Also, anything stand out for Friday? Have a feeling we get bounceback wins from Miami, Boston, and Orlando.

why am i now getting ads on your site? if ads are going to be a new thing i want my money back. i pay for content not to watch more ads.

ACE BAILEY points is 11.5 tonight (UTH at MEM). 14-1 over that number over his last 15 games, averaging 19.3.

https://data.vsin.com/nba/player-props/

#NBA #PlayerProps #DraftKings @VSiNLive

St Louis City FC and the Columbus Crew battle tonight for the US Cup trophy. Over 200 teams started this competition last year and now we are down to two. Both these teams are in good form and should give excellent efforts with hardware on the line. This is a hard handicap, but the game is being played in Columbus Ohio, so I give the advantage to Columbus with the home crowd support. Expect a tightly fought game so I like the under and draw in the first half. Here is what I am playing:

First half draw +140

First half under 1 1/2 -160

Columbus Crew draw no bet -143

Under 3 1/2 - 178 is worth a consideration

0-0 tie, we hit 3 and 1 push

In our other match Louisville City FC travel to Jacksonville Florida to take on last place Sporting Jax. Keeping it simple Louisville City should have all the motivation they need as a win gives them a home game in the first round of the playoffs. Sporting Jax have given up 74 goals in 28 games. The inaugural season in the USL for Sporting JAX has been tumultuous one with numerous schedule changes for a myriad of reasons. They have only managed to win 3 games this season with 5 draws and 20 losses. The first match between these teams was a 1-0 win for Louisville but is should have been much worse as Louisville dominated the stats: 38 to 5 touches in the oppositions box, 7-0 shots on target, 8 to 2 corners. I could keep going but you get the picture.

Let's play:

Louisville City FC to win -245 (parlay with something)

Louisville City FC - 1 1/2 -101

Over 3 1/2 -149

Louisville City FC to win and over 2 1/2 - 143

Louisville City FC to win and over 3 1/2 + 146

Louisville City FC halftime / fulltime - 127

Louisville wins 2-0

We have two games in the USL tonight as teams get ready for the playoffs:

Two of the teams that meet tonight that are not headed for the playoffs are the Birmingham Legion and Brooklyn FC. This match was originally scheduled to be played in August but was rescheduled because of weather concerns. Brooklyn comes off a surprising road win 3-2 over Hartford and Birmingham tied 0-0 with Loudon in their last match. The first game between these two teams was a 4-0 victory for Birmingham. That game was a tough scheduling spot for Brooklyn as the game was played at 11:00 AM on a Tuesday in Birmingham in an almost empty stadium. I think this game is a tough scheduling spot for Birmingham as they come off two recent trips to Jacksonville Florida and now have to travel to New York. I also like the revenge angle for Brooklyn. This is also Brooklyn's final home game, so I expect at least a good effort for the fans.

Let's try:

Brooklyn + 1/2 -192

Brooklyn to win + 157

Birmingham wins 2-1, lose both.

I'm taking Pats +3 based on their defense which is better than the Bears defense. Bears new defensive coordinator still has not made a positive impact on Bears D which currently allows 8.4 yards per pass and 4.5 yards per run, and Pats are coming in with a hot Maye who has thrown 7 TD's and no int's. Finally Vrabel's record with Pats is 5-1-1 ATS as road dogs.

Share your Best Bet on the Thursday Night Football game and I'll post the most well-reasoned analysis in Thursday's VSiN Daily Newsletter.

Banner raised. Party spoiled. Sixers ML (+152) ✅

Turns out being myself was profitable.

GO SIXERS.

Marshall +2.5 vs. South Alabama

The public is hammering South Alabama -2.5 on public books like DraftKings and the line has moved from opening 3 to 2.5 now.

Sharper books seeing lower bets and higher handle on the Marshall side, I'm in.

Pauly Ho With Dylan Harper in the starting lineup, I like his OVER 25.5 PRA tonight. More minutes should equal more production. Any thought with you and Mitch and Doug?

My god celtics that was brutal.

All the fouls on 3 and the bs calls on fouls by the refs .

People complain about nfl with the flags but the nba is at a whole different level of b.s.

Hard to watch this league with players flopping constantly and the bad overacting.

Players just giving up on shots cuz they know they will get a foul.

No wonder the amount of people watching has plummeted in the last decade.

It's virtually unwatchable.

Why can't we bet unders on props any more?

This is dumb!

U bet bet unders on college football but not the nba? College sports are notoriously more dodgy than the nba.

I can only bet milestone overs now too! Wtf give me the actual line.

To bet LeBron points over 15+ -160? That's gross.

I'm so done with the nba.

🏀 Sixers ML (+152) vs. NYK

LeBron James (noun): GOAT, Sixer.

Raise it to the rafters, New York. Play the tribute video. Let everybody get their pictures. Then we’re handing you an L to commemorate the occasion.

Is there some Philly bias here? Of course. They’re offering me plus money to be myself!

GO SIXERS.

'I have been doing well recently in NFL by betting (sometimes teasing) on Home Dogs and taking Unders in Division Games. I do not have stats - sorry.      Speaking of stats we all know that 52.4% is the Holy Grail to make a profit.  However that is only based on doing the same $$ every bet.  EG you can back 4 games @ 110 - 3 for $100 and 1 for $1,000.   If the 3 smaller bets lose and the larger one wins, you will make money even though your % is only 25%