✅ Today’s Checklist
We're down to 66 teams
Two more punch their tickets tonight — and the betting edges are sharper than they look.
Using Steve Makinen’s First Four betting trends, Wednesday’s card splits cleanly: one strong side . . . and one even stronger Total.
Tuesday recap:
👉 Howard (-1.5) advanced with a MDBC 86-83 (Over 143.5) and Texas (+1.5) moved on, beating NC State 68-66 (Under 157.5).
Wednesday's games:
🏀 Prairie View (+3.5) vs. Lehigh — 6:40 ET, truTV
The edge: Fade Lehigh in this profile.
Patriot League vs mid-majors: 2-7 ATS
#16-seed dogs: 64% ATS
🏀 Miami of Ohio (+6.5) vs. SMU
The edge: The Total of 163.5 is the play.
MAC teams: 7 straight NCAA UNDERS
High totals (139+): 60% UNDER
FYI: Side trends conflict
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🧠 How to Spot a Bracket Buster
Upsets aren’t random — they’re predictable.
Steve Makinen’s data shows most March surprises follow the same profiles.
⚠️ Teams to fade
Public favorites with flaws:
Kentucky — elite offense, shaky defense
Alabama — inflated by pace, volatile D
Iowa State — efficiency dips vs top teams
🧨 Cinderella targets
Under-seeded, efficient teams:
Drake — half-court efficiency + experience
McNeese — defensive profile travels
James Madison — veteran guards + balance
🏆 Title blueprint
Teams that check every box:
Houston — elite defense
UConn — no statistical holes
Purdue — interior dominance + improved guards
💡 Bottom line
Fade: flawed blue bloods
Back: efficient mid-majors
Build around: complete teams
👉 Bracket strategy: Save your chaos for teams that fit the profile — not just the seed line.
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🏀 Your NCAA Tournament Toolkit
Everything you need before filling out a bracket or placing a bet.
🔍 Today’s picks
👉 Top plays from Adam Burke & Tyler Shoemaker, plus Josh Appelbaum's Sharp Report (coming later this morning)
👉 The Circa College Hoops Challenge: 15 plays apiece from 15 contestants for the first-round games will be announced on VSiN PrimeTime tonight after ET and posted on VSiN.com.
🎧 Podcast picks
👉 Beating The Book: Picks from Gill Alexander, Todd Wishnev, Will Hill and Jeff Parles. ➡️ Watch / Listen
📊 Betting tools
⚡ Real-time edge
👉 Track market steam with the DonBest Screen
Zach Cohen's NBA Report
Zach Cohen's NBA Report
Parlay Options Galore
If you've been sitting out the “brain dead parlay” the last couple of nights, I get it. We haven't had as many can't-miss legs as usual. That changes on Wednesday. The following six games fit what we're looking for:
Thunder at Nets - 7:30 PM ET
Trail Blazers at Pacers - 7:30 PM ET
Raptors at Bulls - 8 PM ET
Jazz at Timberwolves - 8 PM ET
Hawks at Mavericks - 8:30 PM ET
Nuggets at Grizzlies - 8:30 PM ET
I can't say with certainty that I'll be jumping on a six-team parlay, but it's definitely under consideration. On Tuesday, we saw the NBA’s tanking teams get completely stomped.
Zach posts his Best Bets every morning.
He also does a fresh episode of the Hardwood Handicappers podcast Monday-Friday.
⛳ Valspar: Bet the Ball-Strikers
Copperhead isn’t a birdie fest — it’s a survival test.
And that makes this one of the easiest boards to handicap.
🎯 The edge
Nearly one-third of approach shots come from 200+ yards
Fairways hit just ~56% → positional course
Winners separate with elite irons + bogey avoidance
👉 Think grinders, not birdie-makers
👀 Targets (with odds)
Brooks Koepka (20-1) — elite long-iron proximity fits perfectly
Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1) — accuracy + scrambling combo
Corey Conners (25-1) — one of the steadiest iron players on Tour
DRF’s Wednesday Race of the Day at Turfway Park: Picks, Preview, and Analysis for March 18
by Daily Racing Form (DRF)
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