✅ Today’s Checklist
👉 Enter the free March Mania Betting Challenge (deadline noon ET today)
👉 Take your shot at $1M Survivor (deadline 10 p.m. ET today) . . . Still a big overlay
Greetings from New York. I know, I know. I should be in Las Vegas, but VSiN duties call.
First-Round Cheat Sheet
I ran Steve Makinen's NCAA Tournament first-round betting trends through Chat GPT and requested the three Best Bets based on the data.
These three spots show the strongest alignment of historical trends + market inefficiencies:
🧊 Under: South Florida–Louisville (163.5)
Multiple systems converge: high totals (70.5% UNDER), First Four carryover (73.1%), AAC trends (64%+), and #6 seed UNDER (81.5%)
Even the head-to-head series has gone UNDER 5 straight
👉 Why it matters: Early-round totals are still inflated—this is a classic pace + pressure spot.
🐶 Fade the #5 seeds (Target: McNeese State +11.5 vs Vanderbilt)
#5 seeds: just 40.9% ATS over last 16 tournaments
Favored by 6+: 34.5% ATS
#12 seeds: 76.5% ATS surge
👉 Why it matters: This is the most consistently mispriced matchup in March—public loves the favorite, value sits with the dog.
💪 Lay it: Michigan -31.5 vs Howard (or similar 1-seed blowouts)
Double-digit favorites: 56% ATS
#1 seeds laying 25+: 59% ATS
Big Ten vs mid-majors: 85% ATS
MEAC teams: 25% ATS in this round
👉 Why it matters: NIL has widened the gap—true mismatches are producing more blowouts, not fewer.
📊 The takeaway from Steve's data as analyzed by AI:
Bet one total (UNDER), one dog (12 over 5), and one favorite (1-seed rout)—that’s the most balanced way to attack Round 1.
👉 Read NCAA Tournament First-Round Analytics Report for the full breakdown and every qualifying trend.
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🏀 Wednesday night recap
Prairie View and Miami (OH) advanced to the field of 64 on Wednesday night in Dayton.
👉 No. 16 Prairie View will meet No. 1 Florida (-35.5) on Friday after beating Lehigh (-3.5) 67-55.
👉 No. 11 Miami will take on No. 6 Tennessee (-10.5) after defeating SMU (-6.5) 89-79.
🎯 First-round Best Bets from VSiN experts
VSiN's host and writers offer their top plays:
Adam Burke, Tyler Shoemaker and Josh Appelbaum will post later this morning. 👉 Go here.
Circa College Hoops Challenge: You can find 15 plays apiece from the 15 contestants for the first-round games. 👉 Go here.
FYI: Most popular contest play? Hofstra +13 vs. Alabama.
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🏀 Your NCAA Tournament Toolkit
Everything you need before filling out a bracket or placing a bet.
📊 Betting tools
⚡ Real-time edge
👉 Track market steam with the DonBest Screen
Zach Cohen's NBA Report
Packed Thursday schedule
A lot of people will be watching a different kind of basketball on Thursday, but those who love the NBA will have some good games to consume. The Magic and Hornets will clash in Charlotte at 7 p.m. ET, LeBron James returns to Miami as the Lakers take on the Heat at 8:00 pm ET, and the Suns will face the Spurs in a big Western Conference tilt at 8 pm ET.
Unfortunately, it isn’t the greatest night to parlay playoff teams against tankers. The only legs I’d feel good about are the Pistons (at Wizards) and Cavaliers (at Bulls). However, you can use those teams in some other parlays, if you’re willing to be creative.
Zach posts his Best Bets every morning.
He also does a fresh episode of the Hardwood Handicappers podcast Monday-Friday.
Quick Hits
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