Las Vegas is enjoying October weather in October for a change. Usually, we have to wait until December for 60-degree temperatures.
So let's start with baseball.
⚾ Dodgers Face a Must-Win Game
The Rays beat the Guardians 3-1 Tuesday night to even the ALCS at 1-1. But Adam Burke points out that Cleveland got what it wanted: a split on the road. Now the Guardians head home for three games with their top bullpen arms rested.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers trail Milwaukee 2-0 in the NLCS. Los Angeles (-165) sends Blake Snell against Robert Gasser and the Brewers (+153) tonight (8 p.m. ET, FS1), with the struggling Shohei Ohtani remaining in the lineup.
>> Read Adam's Brewers–Dodgers Game 3 Preview
Adam's daily Best Bets will be posted later this morning. >> MLB Best Bets and Playoff Coverage
🏈 A 14-Point Disagreement in Tonight's College Football Odds
We've got two Conference USA games tonight, and Steve Makinen's effective play-by-play ratings have something interesting to say about one of them.
Wednesday's games (Circa lines):
- Kennesaw State (-3) at Missouri State — 7:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
- Western Kentucky (-2) at Sam Houston — 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Steve has released his effective play-by-play ratings for all 59 games this week. One of the biggest differences is Western Kentucky–Sam Houston: his numbers make Sam Houston a 12.6-point favorite, compared with a market line of Sam Houston +1.5 in his analysis — a 14.1-point gap.
The ratings have gone 33-25 ATS (56.9%) against closing numbers. Does tonight's discrepancy point to an opportunity?
>> See Steve's Ratings for All 59 Games
Adam Burke also has his Wednesday college football Best Bets, including Western Kentucky–Sam Houston.
>> Read Adam's Wednesday College Football Picks
🏈 Does Denver Have Value on Thursday Night?
Seattle (-2.5) visits Denver on Thursday Night Football, and Zach Cohen sees a price worth questioning after some questionable coaching decisions in Week 5.
“I don't see why Denver is available at +130 in a home game against a similar team,” Zach writes.
>> Read Zach's Seahawks–Broncos Picks and Props
Your Best Bet Could Be in VSiN Daily
The VSiN Community has grown to more than 1,000 members. Let's put some of that collective handicapping knowledge to work.
Have a Best Bet for Thursday night's Seahawks–Broncos game? Share your pick on the VSiN Community page and, more importantly, explain why you like it. I'll publish the best submission in VSiN Daily based on the strength of the argument.
>> Share Your Best Bet with the VSiN Community
☠️ Three Teams Gill Is Avoiding in Circa Survivor
The Rams, Chiefs and Bills might look like attractive options in Circa Survivor this week. Gill Alexander isn't taking any of them.
On A Numbers Game, Gill explains why he's passing on all three — and reveals which team he prefers instead.
>> Watch Gill's Survivor Breakdown
💰 Grandissimo Entries for Sale
I was browsing the Survivor Sweat marketplace and spotted four Circa Grandissimo entries for sale.
The highest asking price I saw was $4,750 for a 1% share, valuing the entry at $475,000. That's below the $513,333 implied value of each of the 15 entries still chasing the $7.7 million prize.
But there's a catch. That entry has already used the Lions and Chiefs — two teams playing on Thanksgiving — along with the Vikings, Eagles and 49ers.
How much of a discount should you demand for a surviving entry with fewer attractive teams available?
>> Browse the Survivor Sweat Listings
🎲 Tales from the Tables: A $100,000 Edge
Professional gambler Gina Fiore has a new memoir, Advantage Player, and an HBO project in the works based on her life.
On A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander, she described how she and her team beat a Las Vegas casino for more than $100,000 through edge sorting.
>> Watch Gina's Story | See Her Book
🏀 The NBA Betting Guide Is Out
Win totals into edges. Edges into profit.
The 44-page VSiN NBA Betting Guide is packed with everything you need to prepare for the season:
- Win-total predictions for all 30 NBA teams
- Futures picks from nine VSiN experts
- Steve Makinen's preseason power ratings
- Key betting trends and team-by-team previews
- Season-long best bets
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