🏈 Chiefs, NASCAR and Metallica
Just about everyone I've met here in Las Vegas this week seems to be here for one of three things: the Chiefs, NASCAR or Metallica.
We'll cover all three today.
Let's start with the Chiefs.
Are the 3-0 Raiders for real?
Las Vegas is a 4.5-point home underdog against the 3-0 Chiefs, who are experiencing a resurgence with a healthy Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City is also heading into its bye week — which gives me a chance to introduce you (or re-introduce you) to Steve Makinen's pre-bye week betting systems.
The big one: Teams heading into their bye against a division opponent are 58-25-1 ATS since 2013 — 69.9%, +30.6 units and a 36.7% ROI.
That's particularly interesting with Andy Reid in his 14th season in Kansas City. The Chiefs themselves are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight pre-bye games.
And Steve's systems point to something interesting on the total, too.
>> See Steve Makinen's Pre-Bye Week Betting Systems
One more thing: Of our VSiN handicappers, Dave Tuley is the one who took a position on Chiefs-Raiders.
>> See Tuley's Chiefs-Raiders Pick
🎯 NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Matt Youmans — 6 plays
Wes Reynolds — 6 plays
Zach Cohen — 3 plays
Steve Makinen — 9 more plays
Dustin Swedelson — 5 player props
🇬🇧 Don't Forget: Football Starts at 9:30 ET
You don't have to wait until the normal Sunday window.
The Colts (-4.5) and Commanders kick off from London at 9:30 a.m. ET, and Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard will have the game live during VSiN's Pro Football Tailgate Show from 9 a.m.-Noon ET.
VSiN Countdown to Kickoff with Stormy Buonantony and Jonathan Von Tobel takes over from noon-1 p.m. ET.
And if you're looking for a bet on the early game, a Marcus Mariota prop is one of seven player props BOLT produced for Sunday.
🧰 Last-Minute NFL Tools
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections →
🏈 Sunday's Matchups & Advanced Stats →
📊 DraftKings & Circa NFL Betting Splits →
🎯 Every NFL Week 4 Pick From VSiN Hosts & Guests →
⚡ Complete NFL Week 4 Betting Hub →
🏆 What the Contest Players Are Betting
🇺🇸 Eight Handicappers. Eight Patriots Picks.
Patriots +7 against the Bills is the most popular NFL pick among Circa Friday Football Invitational contestants.
And there is no disagreement: all eight handicappers who played the game backed New England.
>> See All 175 Invitational Picks
📈 Average Joe Bettors Expect Points
Here's an even more lopsided opinion from the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.
Among contestants who played the total in Lions-Panthers, 97% took Over 51.
>> See the Average Joe Week 4 Picks
☠️ Survivor Comes Down to Two Teams
Circa Survivor begins Sunday with 6,285 entries still alive in the quest for $25 million.
And most of them are riding with the same two teams:
Vikings — 2,733 picks (43.4%)
Ravens — 2,449 (38.9%)
Seahawks — 442 (7.0%)
Bills — 178 (2.8%)
Colts — 161 (2.6%)
That's 82.3% of the field on Minnesota or Baltimore.
💰 Grandissimo Is Even More Concentrated
Only 24 entries remain in the $100,000-entry Circa Grandissimo — and every one of them picked one of just three teams:
Ravens — 13 (54.2%)
Vikings — 9 (37.5%)
Seahawks — 2 (8.3%)
That's 91.7% of the remaining Grandissimo field on Baltimore or Minnesota.
📋 Rams Lead the Circa Million
Rams -3 is the No. 1 Week 4 consensus play among Circa Million contestants, appearing on 2,032 submitted cards.
1. Rams -3 — 2,032 (35.3%)
2. Bills -6.5 — 1,670 (29.0%)
3. 49ers -2.5 — 1,610 (28.0%)
4. Bears -3 — 1,481 (25.7%)
5. Bengals -2.5 — 1,254 (21.8%)
>> See All Circa Week 4 Contest Picks
💬 From the VSiN Community
VSiN Community member Joe Freda likes a particular home underdog today — and he's going against the public. (Nice call on Arizona, Joe!)
Have a Monday Night Football pick you'd like to share with everyone else?
>> Post It in the VSiN Community
📈 Track the Moves with DonBest
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Start with a 7-day free trial and use promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
⚾ The Long Ball Ruled Saturday
Four playoff games.
The team that hit more home runs went 4-0.
Adam Burke's takeaway: Manufacturing runs in this environment is extremely difficult, which puts even more weight on power and bullpen decisions.
He thought White Sox manager Will Venable handled Game 1 beautifully, especially with his reliever deployment. On the other side, Atlanta's Walt Weiss left AJ Smith-Shawver in too long and watched a 2-1 game become 5-1 in a hurry.
Today, both NL series return:
Padres at Brewers — 4 p.m. ET
Braves at Dodgers — 8 p.m. ET
One thing Adam is watching: Milwaukee used all of its high-leverage relievers Saturday, while San Diego got a look at all of them. That could matter as the series progresses.
Adam will have his Game 2 Best Bets later this morning.
>> VSiN's MLB Playoff Coverage
And don't sleep on VOLT's MLB picks: They're 10-2 over the past week.
🏁 NASCAR Takes Over Vegas, Too
The Cup Series is at Las Vegas Motor Speedway today for the South Point Casino 400 — and qualifying may matter more here than at most tracks.
Twelve of the last 13 winners at LVMS started inside the Top 10.
Steve Makinen's final simulation sees a clear two-car breakaway at the top between Kyle Larson and pole-sitter Denny Hamlin, followed by a four-driver fight for the remaining Top 5 spots.
Steve's projected Top 5: Larson, Hamlin, Bell, Briscoe and Reddick.
>> See Steve's Full Race Simulation
>> South Point Casino 400 Preview & Odds
🤘 And Finally ... Metallica
I promised you Chiefs, NASCAR and Metallica.
Dave Tuley was at Metallica's “Life Burns Faster” show Saturday night at the Sphere. His review:
“I know all about ‘recency bias,’ but I’ve been to dozens of concerts the past 40 years and Metallica’s ‘Life Burns Faster’ show Saturday night at the Sphere in Las Vegas probably topped them all.”
Dave saw U2 at the Sphere two years ago and came away thinking the venue itself — especially the visuals and sound — was the star of the show.
“But Metallica used the venue even better and matched the energy with a two-hour tour de force.”
Then James Hetfield said “good night,” drawing a disappointed moan from the crowd — before the band launched into “Enter Sandman” to close the show in epic fashion.
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