🏈 How Much Do You Really Love Football?
Tuesday night Sun Belt football is something of a litmus test for how much you really love betting on football.
If Southern Miss-Troy gets the blood pumping, congratulations. You've made it.
Tonight marks the first Tuesday football game of the season — Day 6 of a streak that will give us football every day for two months.
And because we're not going to send you into a Tuesday night Sun Belt game unprepared, Adam Burke has a best bet.
The market initially moved Troy from -9.5 into double digits, but Adam found some reasons to question whether the Trojans' offense is built to cover that kind of number.
Against FBS opponents, Troy is averaging just 4.9 yards per play and has converted 37.8% of its third downs. The Trojans have also made only nine trips to the red zone all season.
So what does Adam want to do with the number?
>> See Adam's Southern Miss-Troy Best Bet
☀️ Bone Up on the Sun Belt
If you're going to spend Tuesday night betting Southern Miss-Troy, you might as well know what you're getting into.
>> Adam's 2026 Sun Belt Conference Preview
🔥 Steve Stays Hot
Steve Makinen didn't need the two points Monday night.
The Falcons beat the Saints 45-24 outright, giving Steve another NFL Best Bet winner.
Steve is now 25-12-2 ATS on his NFL Best Bets this season, including a 7-2-1 Week 4.
And now he's showing us some of what's behind the run.
Steve and VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen (aka his son) have developed a new batch of NFL systems. Steve quietly began test-driving several of them with his Week 4 plays before putting the systems into circulation this week.
These aren't old franchise trends. Steve is looking for league-wide situations that can persist even as players and coaches change — many of them built around going against what the market might intuitively expect.
One example: Teams coming off a loss in which they scored 10 points or fewer have gone 65-34-3 ATS (65.7%) as divisional underdogs since 2020.
The new systems will be incorporated into VSiN's weekly NFL Analytics Reports beginning this week, with the qualifying teams identified automatically.
Worth noting: The Falcons' victory wrapped up quite a week for underdogs, who went 10-4-2 with seven outright wins.
🐦 Nick's Crowing, Too
Steve isn't the only VSiN handicapper off to a pretty, pretty good start.
Nick Bakay, co-host of Winning Ugly with Billy Gardell (10-11 p.m. ET Wednesdays), has posted four winning NFL weeks and a 12-5 record overall.
As Nick put it: “I gotta crow while I can!”
📖 The Second-Half Rotation Guide Is Here
The second half of the season is now available in the DonBest College and Pro Rotation Guide.
Purchase the complete guide for $4.99 — or download the updated version if you've already paid.
>> Get the Updated Football Rotation Guide
💰 Contest Wrap: 23.9% Remain
☠️ 5,972 Still Alive
Week 4 is officially in the books for Circa Survivor.
Of the original 25,017 entries, 5,972 have advanced to Week 5.
That's just 23.9% of the original field still alive in the quest for $25 million.
🛒 Missed the Cut? You Can Still Get In
If your Survivor entry didn't make it to Week 5 — or you never had one — the Survivor Sweat Marketplace has new live Circa contest entries available.
>> Check Out the New Survivor Sweat Listings
🏆 Salmons and Petch Tied at the Top
Ed Salmons and Jeff Petch are tied with 20 points apiece in the Circa Friday Football Invitational.
Salmons owns the early tiebreaker with a perfect 4-0 Best Bets record.
>> Circa Friday Football Invitational Standings
🎯 43 Perfect Cards. One Winner.
VSiN Pro subscriber Dan Pilcher of Oklahoma City (OKC—IDP) finished first in Week 4 of the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.
Dan was one of 43 contestants with a perfect record and won the week on the Action Points tiebreaker.
>> See How Dan Built His Winning Card
>> Overall and Week 4 Leaderboard
💵 I Hope Dan Signed Up for EdgeBoost
EdgeBoost is offering its customers a $1,000 bonus with at least a $100 deposit if they finish first in the weekly standings.
⚾ Adam Burke Is Taking This Well
The Guardians are down 2-0 to the White Sox, which means it's time to check in with noted Cleveland fan Adam Burke.
Adam described the Guardians offense as “the worst [bleeping] thing I've ever seen for a playoff team” and noted that Cleveland's World Series drought is rapidly approaching 80 years.
Yankees fans probably aren't feeling much better after watching their team score two runs in 18 innings against Tampa Bay — while committing four errors.
Adam's question: “Has anybody checked in on Tom Emanski to see if he has thoughts?”
Fortunately for Adam, he doesn't have to watch Cleveland today. The American League is off and the NL takes center stage.
Tuesday's NLDS Schedule — Circa Sports
6 p.m. ET — Dodgers (Yamamoto) EVEN at Braves (Sale) -110 — Total 6
9:30 p.m. ET — Brewers (May) +122 at Padres (Pivetta) -132 — Total 7
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Chris Sale is about as good as it gets for a playoff pitching matchup. The best-of-five series is tied 1-1 after Atlanta stole home-field advantage in Game 2 while keeping Sale well-rested for tonight.
The nightcap could look very different.
Adam was surprised Milwaukee chose Dustin May instead of Robert Gasser. May posted a 5.65 ERA and 6.06 xERA with the Brewers, and Adam expects Milwaukee could piggyback him with a left-hander.
San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, who lasted only 3.1 innings against the Cubs in the Wild Card Round. His September numbers also tell two very different stories: a 1.45 ERA but a 4.78 xERA.
>> Adam Burke's Tuesday MLB Best Bets (later today)
⚾ Tony George Stays Hot in MLB
Tony George finished the 2026 MLB regular season +120 units and +$8,060 with a low-volume, strategy-driven approach. His MLB Top Picks are 24-12 YTD.
And he's carried that momentum into October: 6-1 in the MLB Playoffs through Oct. 5 and +$1,450 over the last seven days.
>> See Tony George's MLB Results
>> Get a Free Trial at Doc's Sports
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