🏀 Dog or Pass . . . or Under?
For 11 months of the year, he’s Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley.
For the NCAA Tournament? It’s “Under or Pass” Tuley
That’s why his Final Four card caught my eye.
👉 Illinois–UConn Total: 139.5 . . . Dave projects 144.5 and is betting the Over
Why the market is low:
🏟️ Football stadium setting (historically suppresses scoring)
📉 Both teams 3-1 to the Under this tournament
🐢 Slower tempo on both sides
Tuley’s take: The market has over-adjusted.
“I believe the oddsmakers and early bettors have put too much stock in this.”
Big picture: Unders have been cashing—but not overwhelmingly.
👉 Favorites: 47-13 SU (78.3%)
👉 Favorites: 33-25-2 ATS (56.9%)
👉 Totals: Unders 33-27 (55%)
Bottom line: Even in an Under-leaning tournament, Dave sees value going the other way.
👉 Read Tuley’s full Final Four breakdown (including Arizona–Michigan) →
👉 Check VSiN's Tournament Hub for game previews →
👉 Greg Peterson, Adam Burke and Tyler Shoemaker have Best Bets for tonight's NIT semis and Crown Basketball quarterfinals on our college hoops page →
For the NCAA Tournament? It’s “Under or Pass” Tuley
That’s why his Final Four card caught my eye.
👉 Illinois–UConn Total: 139.5 . . . Dave projects 144.5 and is betting the Over
Why the market is low:
🏟️ Football stadium setting (historically suppresses scoring)
📉 Both teams 3-1 to the Under this tournament
🐢 Slower tempo on both sides
Tuley’s take: The market has over-adjusted.
“I believe the oddsmakers and early bettors have put too much stock in this.”
Big picture: Unders have been cashing—but not overwhelmingly.
👉 Favorites: 47-13 SU (78.3%)
👉 Favorites: 33-25-2 ATS (56.9%)
👉 Totals: Unders 33-27 (55%)
Bottom line: Even in an Under-leaning tournament, Dave sees value going the other way.
👉 Read Tuley’s full Final Four breakdown (including Arizona–Michigan) →
👉 Check VSiN's Tournament Hub for game previews →
👉 Greg Peterson, Adam Burke and Tyler Shoemaker have Best Bets for tonight's NIT semis and Crown Basketball quarterfinals on our college hoops page →
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Here is one nugget I found compelling:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 434-491 SU but for +68.09 units since the start of the 2021 season.
👉 Read Makinen’s full MLB systems breakdown →
Here is one nugget I found compelling:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 434-491 SU but for +68.09 units since the start of the 2021 season.
👉 Read Makinen’s full MLB systems breakdown →
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🎯 MLB Best Bets
There are only three games today, but Greg Peterson has plays for all of them.
👉 Greg's top plays →
Steve, Adam Burke and Zach Cohen will have their daily MLB contributions later this morning.
👉 Go to our MLB page→
👉 Greg's top plays →
Steve, Adam Burke and Zach Cohen will have their daily MLB contributions later this morning.
👉 Go to our MLB page→
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They’re also rolling out the new “Masters of your Domain” contest:
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They’re also rolling out the new “Masters of your Domain” contest:
👉 Make one $50+ play on any Masters market (win or lose)
👉 Earn an entry to win a $1,000 golf prize:
• $1,000 round of golf
• $1,000 clubs of your choice
• $1,000 apparel gift card
Just play to get in — that’s it.
👉 Download ProphetX, use code VSINMM and get started →
🏀 Zach Cohen’s NBA Report
Wednesday recap
The Celtics rolled the Heat 147-129 on the road in one of their better all-around performances. Jaylen Brown dropped 43, while Jayson Tatum went for 25-18-11 in 37 minutes. If that duo keeps trending like this, Boston is going to look very real in the title picture. Tatum, in particular, is rounding into peak form.
The Hawks made a statement, too. Franz Wagner’s return moved the line from Magic +4.5 to +2.5, but it didn’t matter — Atlanta stomped Orlando 130-101 and is closing in on the Southeast Division.
And then there was Sacramento. The Kings went into Toronto and won 123-115 as 12.5-point dogs… which, of course, ruined the braindead parlay.
The Celtics rolled the Heat 147-129 on the road in one of their better all-around performances. Jaylen Brown dropped 43, while Jayson Tatum went for 25-18-11 in 37 minutes. If that duo keeps trending like this, Boston is going to look very real in the title picture. Tatum, in particular, is rounding into peak form.
The Hawks made a statement, too. Franz Wagner’s return moved the line from Magic +4.5 to +2.5, but it didn’t matter — Atlanta stomped Orlando 130-101 and is closing in on the Southeast Division.
And then there was Sacramento. The Kings went into Toronto and won 123-115 as 12.5-point dogs… which, of course, ruined the braindead parlay.
Tonight's action
This is a sneaky good slate.
The Prime Video doubleheader features Timberwolves–Pistons and Lakers–Thunder. Elsewhere: Suns–Hornets, Cavaliers–Warriors, and Spurs–Clippers — five games involving playoff teams.
Even Pelicans–Trail Blazers, the weakest matchup on paper, at least avoids the tanking nonsense.
This is a sneaky good slate.
The Prime Video doubleheader features Timberwolves–Pistons and Lakers–Thunder. Elsewhere: Suns–Hornets, Cavaliers–Warriors, and Spurs–Clippers — five games involving playoff teams.
Even Pelicans–Trail Blazers, the weakest matchup on paper, at least avoids the tanking nonsense.
🎧 Zach’s Hardwood Handicapper podcast →
👉 Explore NBA Opta AI projections (no paywall) →
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