Yesterday, we promised we'd dig through Steve Makinen's Week 0 College Football Analytics Report and see if we could come up with our three favorite bets.
So that's what we did.
As with our NFL preseason experiment, we looked for plays where multiple independent indicators in Steve's report pointed in the same direction — putting the most weight on his ratings models, broader league-wide systems, Stability Scores and current betting data.
And we came up with three:
🥇 North Carolina +9.5 vs. TCU
🥈 UNLV -4.5 vs. Memphis
🥉 Hawaii +4 at Stanford
📊 Dig into Steve's Week 0 Analytics Report →
Then I looked at Steve's own Week 0 picks.
He picked all three, too.
And, to be clear, we hadn't looked at Steve's picks before making ours.
That's what makes this interesting.
We essentially treated Steve's Analytics Report as a database, looking for places where the numbers converged. Steve approached the games as a handicapper, combining many of those same analytics with his evaluation of the teams, personnel and matchups.
Different paths. Same three bets.
🥇 North Carolina +9.5 vs. TCU
This was our strongest ratings play. North Carolina is an underpriced underdog in all three of Steve's ratings models: No. 1 in Power Ratings, No. 2 in Effective Strength and No. 2 in Bettors Ratings, where the model shows a substantial 6.3 points of value. A 59.8% ATS neutral-field revenge system also supports UNC.
🥈 UNLV -4.5 vs. Memphis
This is our stability play. UNLV qualifies for Steve's Stability Score system that has gone 302-243-12 ATS (55.4%) since 2013. Memphis also triggers separate fades involving a new head coach and new defensive coordinator. Steve's Power and Effective Strength ratings both see value on UNLV.
🥉 Hawaii +4 at Stanford
Hawaii also qualifies for the 55.4% ATS Stability Score system, while Stanford's low Stability Score creates another reason to fade the Cardinal. Stanford has a new defensive coordinator, P4 home favorites in this situation have struggled ATS against G5 visitors, and Steve's Bettors Ratings show 2.6 points of value on Hawaii.
Steve has more Week 0 best bets, so you'll want to check out his complete card.
Now we get to find out whether being on the same side is a good thing.
Before we turn our full attention to the regular season, there's one more weekend of NFL preseason betting.
Yesterday, we gave you our three favorite plays from Steve Makinen's analytics: Chiefs +2.5, Lions +3.5 and Dolphins +3.5.
🏈 Adam Burke's Week 3 Best Bets + More NFL Coverage →
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