🏈 90 Points Last Time. Steve’s Data Says Under.
NFL Week 1 had a record-tying number of points.
And if you remember the last time Buffalo and Detroit played, there wasn’t much defense involved there, either: the Bills won 48-42 in 2024.
The current total for tonight’s Lions-Bills matchup is 54.5.
Yet Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report keeps pointing in the other direction: Under.
The case for the Under:
Teams coming off a win by three points or fewer are 44-23-1 Under (65.7%) in Week 2.
Teams that won Week 1 games in which 50+ points were scored are 34-18 Under (65.4%) the following week.
Steve’s Detroit-specific data agrees: Dan Campbell is 16-10 Under after allowing 30+ points.
Then there’s the Thursday-night angle. Since 2012, TNF games with totals of 50+ are 24-12 Under (66.7%). At 54.5, this game qualifies comfortably.
>> Steve Makinen’s NFL Week 2 Analytics Report
More Ways to Bet Lions-Bills
Zach Cohen is staying away from both the side and total on this one, but he has a few player props.
>> Zach Cohen’s Bills-Lions Picks & Player Props
Dave Tuley writes: “I love the Lions here at anything more than a field goal and feel better about it as the line has been bet up from 3.5 to 4.5.”
>> Tuley’s Takes on Every NFL Week 2 Game
Build your own card:
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections →
🔎 NFL Player Prop Analyzer →
📊 DraftKings & Circa NFL Betting Splits →
🎯 Picks From VSiN Hosts & Guests →
🎙️ The Week 2 Megapod
Gill Alexander is joined by Todd Wishnev, Will Hill and ClevTA for the Beating The Book NFL Week 2 Megapod.
Spoiler Alert: Will likes Lions-Bills Over.
>> Watch the Week 2 Megapod
>> Listen on Apple Podcasts
🚑 NFL Injury Watch
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold (hip) will miss Sunday’s game against the Cardinals.
Add two more for the injury-prone 49ers: rookie WR De’Zhaun Stribling (ankle) is out 10 weeks and TE Jake Tonges (knee) is out for the season.
🏈 LSU-Ole Miss Line Gets Interesting
In the big LSU-Ole Miss grudge match, Tigers QB Sam Leavitt (shoulder) was a surprise name on the injury report.
At Circa, the line moved from LSU -3 to -1.5 before moving back to -2.5 by Wednesday night.
>> Circa & DraftKings College Football Betting Splits
Tonight: Syracuse at Pitt
There’s just one college football game tonight: Syracuse (+11) at Pitt, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
>> Adam Burke’s Syracuse-Pitt Best Bet
Looking ahead to Saturday: Steve Makinen has posted both his Best Bets and his massive Analytics Report for Week 3.
>> Steve Makinen’s Week 3 Best Bets
>> Steve’s CFB Week 3 Analytics Report
>> CFB Week 3 Betting Hub
⚾️ Greg Has Five for Thursday
Greg Peterson has five best bets on Thursday’s MLB menu.
>> Greg Peterson’s Thursday MLB Best Bets
>> More MLB Picks From VSiN Experts
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