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There's only one college football game Monday — SMU (-3) at Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) — and Steve Makinen's analytics don't give us a clean answer on the side.
They do on the total.
Three different indicators point toward the Under:
1. P4 conference games have gone Under 71.4% of the time.
Week 0/1 games between P4 conference opponents are 15-6 to the Under since 2021, averaging just 46.6 points.
2. Tight ACC games have leaned Under.
ACC matchups with spreads between -3.5 and +3.5 and totals of 55.5 or lower have gone 70-48-1 to the Under since 2015 — 59.3%.
3. Steve's Effective Strength Ratings really like the Under.
SMU-Florida State was the No. 1 Under projection on Steve's Week 1 board, with his model projecting 49.3 points when the total was 52.5.
The side is much messier.
One of Steve's opening-week systems says to fade road favorites like SMU. Another trend says to fade Florida State, which is just 13-27 ATS in ACC games since 2021. And Steve's Effective Strength Ratings see value on Florida State +3.
So the numbers can argue about the side.
College Football Week 1 isn't quite over, but Adam Burke is already working on Week 2.
Later this morning, Adam will have his updated college football power ratings and a look at the early Week 2 line moves and games that have caught his attention.
We've spent the last several days talking about college football. Now it's time to turn our attention to the NFL.
And Steve Makinen has already done a lot of the homework for us.
Inside the updated VSiN NFL Betting Guide 2.0, Steve breaks down 12 systems he uses to attack the opening week — looking at everything from home and road favorites to divisional games, totals and how last season's results can create value in Week 1.
Thought Circa Survivor: The Quest for $18.7 Million was over?
We've got one more for you.
A bonus “Behind the Scenes” episode will be released Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET on VSiN's YouTube channel.
With the entry deadline still six days away (2 p.m. ET Saturday), the Circa football contests fields are filling up. As of Sunday night:
Circa Million: 4,409 entries
Circa Survivor: 19,011 entries
Circa Grandissimo: 46 entries
Tune in Saturday night at 9 p.m. ET for The Football Contest Show with Matt Brown. We'll announce the final numbers and the consensus picks.
FootballContest.com provides proxy services for players who need help entering and managing their Circa football contest selections from outside Las Vegas.
Registration is open for the 2026 Average Joe Contest, sponsored by EdgeBoost.
It's free to enter. Make seven picks ATS or on totals each week, and the winner earns a spot in next year's Circa Friday Football Invitational.
The Labor Day menu serves up first place vs. second place in both the NL Central and NL East.
Greg Peterson has plays on Braves-Phillies and Brewers-Cubs.
🎾 US Open: Zach Cohen has his Best Bets for Monday's Round of 16.
👉 Zach's Monday US Open Picks →
🏇 Saratoga: One last day at the Spa. DRF's Mike Beer has his picks for the final day of the Saratoga meet.
Strike Point Sports is known as “Mr. Saturday” for their dominating college football work, hammering home 9 of 11 winning college football years, including 2025.
They ended last season on a 28-14 (67%), +6,200 college football run and plan on picking up where they left off this season.
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