Take a look at Sam Darnold to throw an interception in this one. I’m seeing-135 lines but as always, shop around to get the best number.

Below are some things factoring into this bet:

• Darnold has thrown 5 picks in 4 games.

• Denver has 5 interceptions in 5 games. The only game without one was against Purdy. (And they had 2 against the Rams)

• The game is lined at Seattle -2.5, so it’s unlikely that the Seahawks will be able to exclusively rely on running the ball. More passes = more chances at interceptions.

• Denver is a hostile environment for an opposing QB, and the Denver D is strong. Expect pressure and hurried throws.

If you have a book that lets you pay 3% for injury insurance, I recommend doing it. It’s a small price to pay in the event the Denver pass rush puts Darnold out of the game before he has a chance to throw that int.

2 strikeout +217 on DK. Let’s go

Rams 86%, Chiefs 78%, 49ers 77%. Hard to find: 49ers at 77%, only 14% of the field still has them.

2,910 entries still alive, $8,597 implied value.

The Average Joe Contest standings have officially reset, which means everyone has a fresh shot at the top spot!

Compete for round trip airfare for two to Las Vegas, plus a two night stay at Circa Resort & Casino!

New quarter, new opportunity. Let's see who comes out on top!

If you haven't signed up - you can still enter. Just go here - https://data.vsin.com/procontests/average-joe-football-2026/

Jeanty’s receiving line looks low at 24.5 against this Bills defense. He’s put up 37, 68, and 50 receiving yards over his last three games, clearing this number in all three. I think the Raiders will be playing from behind, so the checkdowns should be there. Buffalo just allowed 80 receiving yards on nine catches to the Rams’ RBs. We don’t need a monster game here, a few catches and one decent swing pass, and we’re in good shape. The Bills are in the bottom quarter of the league in missed tackles per game. Jeanty should eat on Sunday.

LADDER(2 UNITS):

25 -114

40 +249

50 +451

Fading the Broncos offense here. I see the Seahawks scoring at least 20 points, while Denver's offense has been struggling to score point. Feels like a sub 20 field goal performance from Denver Offense. The Broncos are averaging just 19.4 points per game, and Bo threw for only 123 yards last week. Seattle will do a good job suffocating Bo in the fourth. Denver has been relying on late rallies to pull out wins. Big burner here is Seahawk turnovers.

SEA -2.5 (-111 Fanatics)

Been seeing -2 popping up also for little more juice.

This game was abandoned Saturday because of weather and will be played Wednesday at 6:00 PM CST. I still like the over but not so much on Birmingham winning. They played a half and Birmingham was leading 1-0 when the game was abandoned. Below is my original handicap of this game. I have updated to the current odds.

The Birmingham Legion travel down to Jacksonville to take on Sporting Jax, these are 2 struggling teams but one thing they can do is give up goals. Sporting Jax has given up 73 goals this season in 26 games. Birmingham has also given up its fair share 43. The total for this game is 3 1/2 - 108. I expect a high scoring affair. The first match between these two teams finished 3-2. Birmingham is the slightly better team and may win a shootout. Birmingham just announced a new team president yesterday so they may look to impress.

Plays:

Over 3 1/2 +104

Birmingham - 1/2 -118

Birmingham to win and over 2 1/2 +129

The USA women's National team play Spain in the 2nd game of back-to-back friendlies here in the states. This game will be played in Chester PA at 6:00 PM est. Spain won the first game 2-0 even though USA outshot them 13 to 6, 38 touches in Spain's box to 15 in USA box, expected goals were 2.26 for the USA 0.54 for Spain. So, you get the picture, expect some regression for Spain. Also, in these back-to-back friendlies in soccer the games are usually never the same. I would expect more goals and a USA win. One last note, these teams don't like each other, if you can find a card market over 4 1/2 cards is worth a shot. There was a red card in the last game.

I like a plus price on USA to win this game outright at +181 and the over 2 1/2 at -167.

2-2 draw, didn't get the win but hit the over.

Here is how some of the teams have started the season for those who want instant gratification in the first period. I would not recommend betting them blindly. Use as a tool.

1P straight up:

Rangers 5-0-2
Ducks 4-0-1

Lightning 4-1

Bruins 4-1-1

Avalanche 3-0-2

Blue Jackets 3-1

Panthers 0-4-2

Canucks 1-4-2

Flyers 1-4-2

Penguins 1-2-3

Blackhawks 1-5

Sharks 1-4

Canadiens 1-0-4

1P overs

Kraken/Leafs/Mammoth 5-1

Flames/Avs/Predators/Lightning/Capitals 4-1

1P under

Sharks 5-0

Stars 4-1

Kings 3-1

Flyers/Rangers 5-2

BTTS (Both Teams To Score) NO:

Wild 6-0
Lightning/Blues/Sharks/Islanders 5-0

Knights/Flyers/Rangers 6-1

Senators/Blackhawks/Bruins 5-1

Jets/Predators/Oilers 4-1

Goal in the First 10

Sabres/Kraken/Leafs 5-1

Oilers/Predators/Lightning/Capitals 4-1

NO Goal in the first 10:

Knights 6-1

Blackhawks 5-1

Jets/Sharks/Ducks 4-1

From my friends at MLB Network Research..

Tuesday is a critical game for the Rays. Teams to lose the first two at home in a best-of-seven playoff series have gone on to lose the series on 26 of 30 occasions (87%).

• The four teams to rally after losing the first two at home: the Blue Jays in the ALCS last year (over Seattle) and three World Series winning teams: 1996 Yankees (over Braves), 1986 Mets (over Red Sox), and the 1985 Royals (over Cards).

• Parker Messick grew up a Rays fan in nearby Plant City, Florida before pitching at Florida State. He attended the Rays’ lone victory in the 2008 World Series – Game Two at Tropicana Field. He’ll have a large contingent of friends and family on hand Tuesday.

• Messick is 2-1, 1.03 ERA (3 ER, 26.1 IP) in four career starts vs. the Rays, including his first career victory on August 26, 2025 (7 scoreless in Cleveland).

The Rays have won each of Freddy Peralta’s last seven starts, including a victory in Game Two of the ALDS. He is 5-0, 0.93 ERA (4 ER, 38.2 IP) across those seven outings.

• Peralta allowed a solo HR to Ben Rice in 4.2 innings in a 5-2 Rays’ win in ALDS Game Two.

• In the ALDS vs. the Yankees, Rays pitchers allowed 12 hits in 92 at-bats (.130) with 2 HR. Cleveland hitters went 14-40 AB (.350) with two homers in ALCS Game One.

• José Ramírez has matched a club record by recording an RBI in four straight playoff games, joining Sandy Alomar Jr. (1997) and Jim Thome (1998-1999). Ramírez is 8-17 AB (.471) with 4 XBH, 8 RBI, and 7 runs scored in that four-game stretch.

• Since going 0-4 AB in ALDS Game One, Chase DeLauter is 8-20 AB (.400) with three walks (.478 OBP) and five runs scored in five playoff games.

Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.31 ERA (6 ER, 23.1 IP) over the last four games, striking out 38 of the 95 batters they’ve faced (40.0 K%).

• After a six-pitch ninth on Monday, Cade Smith has now thrown 100 pitches to 26 batters faced in the 2026 postseason, allowing one run on two hits in 7.2 innings with 11 strikeouts.

• Like Smith, Hunter Gaddis has appeared in all six Cleveland playoff games (5.1 scoreless).

Atletico Madrid enter this game in very solid form. Winners of four straight matches, they are 7-1-2 in their last 10 overall dating back to mid-August. The form is even more impressive at home where they are 5-1-0 in their last six matches.

Manchester United on the other hand have been struggling. Winless in their last four matches (0-2-2) they have had a tough time finding wins outside of weaker Champions League and Premier League competition. Manchester United are 0-3-1 in their last four matches away from home.

Once a home favorite pushes past (-110) on the three way moneyline I feel more confident in the bet. Plus the new Champions League format gives some room for a team like United to drop points and still find a way out later.

This is only the 2nd game of the group stage for both of these clubs. Manchester United secured a win against Sabah Baku, a club from Azerbaijan. While Atletico Madrid lost their first game of group play to Liverpool on the road.

I think Atletico get on the right track and snag this tough win at home.

Atletico Madrid ML (-120) vs. Man Utd

Rams -3 (-135)

I bought the half point at Circa to avoid the hook. The public book shows a 50/50 handle split with a majority of the tickets on the Bills.

Sharp books have much more money on Rams spread with a lower ticket number. I have to pay some juice and avoid hook potential.

Gotta take another heat check and see if we can win again. Best of luck tonight everyone!

From my colleagues at MLB Network Research..

Teams to outhomer their opponent have combined to win 46 of 55 games (.836) over the past two postseasons, including a 16-4 record in 2026.

• Teams to score first are 18-8 (.692) this postseason. But three of Milwaukee’s four postseason victories have come after conceding the first run, including Sunday!

• Teams scoring 4+ runs this postseason are 18-1…and 51-10 (.836) over the last two postseasons.

Home Field Advantage: The Brewers are 11-0 in Logan Henderson’s 11 career starts at American Family Field (including NLDS Game Two). He is 8-0, 1.65 ERA (11 ER, 60 IP) across those 11 contests.

• Henderson won both of his starts vs. the Dodgers this year, allowing five hits and one run – a Max Muncy solo homer on Aug. 16 – over 12 combined innings.

Brewers’ relievers have allowed just three runs (one earned) in 23.2 innings (0.38 ERA)…but the ‘pen has needed to cover at least four innings in all five games in the PS.

• Now the Brewers look to go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series for the first time in franchise history. Teams to go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 79 of 95 times (83.1%).

• The Dodgers haven’t lost back-to-back games on the road in a month (Sep. 12-13 @ Miami). Despite solid at-bats vs. Misiorowski, L.A.’s offense is yet to break out this postseason.

• They’re slashing a combined .207/.282/.360 with 11 of their 15 runs coming via the HR.

• L.A. is 2-22 AB (.091) – two singles by Andy Pages – with RISP so far in the playoffs.

Shohei Ohtani has gone a career-high 106 PA without a homer. He scored the Dodgers’ lone run on Sunday after a leadoff walk in the second inning (1-3 AB, single, BB).

Just under a year ago (Oct. 14), Yoshinobu Yamamoto started Game Two of the NLCS in

Milwaukee. He allowed one run on three hits in a 5-1 complete game victory (111 pitches). Dating back to that start, Yamamoto has won each of his last five postseason outings while posting a 1.07 ERA (33.2 IP / 4 R) and allowing a .397 OPS.

• He looks to become the 6th pitcher in the LCS Era (since 1969) to win 6 straight PS games (Cliff Lee, Liván Hernández, David Wells, Orel Hershiser, Dave Stewart).

• Yamamoto is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA (22 IP / 3 ER) in three postseason starts following a Dodgers’ loss – including his latest start in Game 3 of the NLDS in Atlanta when he allowed one run in seven innings with 10 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory.

• Yamamoto won both of his starts vs. the Brewers this season, allowing two runs in 13 innings.

The Rays – one of five clubs to never win a World Series – face the Guardians who have the longest championship drought in baseball (77 seasons).

• These two teams have met twice in the playoffs. In 2013, Joe Maddon’s Rays shut out Terry Francona’s club in the A.L. Wild Gard Game. In the 2022 Wild Card Series, these clubs combined for just four runs in 24 innings as the Guards swept Tampa Bay.

• The Rays won five of their six meetings with the Guardians this season, shutting out Cleveland in three of those victories. Tampa Bay allowed just eight runs in those six games, posting a 1.19 ERA while allowing just two homers.

• Small-ball series: The Rays (81.8% - 1st) and Guards (78.7% - 5th) each ranked top-five in MLB in contact rate this year. They also each ranked top-7 in MLB in steals.

José Ramírez led the Guardians’ offense as they became the 11th club to come back from an 0-2 deficit and win a best-of-five postseason series. Ramírez was 5-12 AB (.417) with four extra-base hits (2 HR) and seven RBI in the club’s victories in Games 3, 4, and 5.

Drew Rasmussen will start Game One. The Rays have won each of his last 13 starts including his Game One victory in the ALDS vs. the Yankees. Rasmussen is 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA (15 ER, 80.2 IP) across those 13 outings with 86 strikeouts and just 17 walks.

• Rasmussen was brilliant two Saturdays ago vs. the Yankees, taking a no-hitter into the eighth before Austin Wells’ two-out double, in which he was thrown out at third. He finished with eight scoreless frames in the Rays’ 1-0 victory.

• Rasmussen used his changeup a career-high 28 times vs. NYY (0-9 AB, 4 K).

• Rasmussen defeated the Guardians 1-0 on July 26 in St. Pete, allowing one hit – a lead-off double by Steven Kwan – in seven innings outdueling Parker Messick (1 run in 7.2 IP).

Talked about it this am with Jensen Lewis on By The Books… and finally took the plunge

Man the bills are banged up at WR

And game script? It’s usually “Josh Allen make it up as you go along” so whether they’re ahead or behind, he’s gonna chuck it and free wheel this thing like he normally does

I think I’m going to *gasp* trust Keon Coleman tonight

Just played O 37.5 yards -114 and small ladder to 49.5 +144 and last ladder 59.5 +208

If you don’t want to be overly aggressive i totally get it

But without Josh Palmer and potentially DJ Moore (who’s dinged up regardless) shakir should gets tons of attention and hopefully get good 1-on-1’s for Coleman

Hopefully he gets involved early because sometimes he can sulk and go in the corner when he’s not involved but hopefully the veterans on this team have gotten that out of him and he does seem to be turning a corner

Good luck to one and all tonight and go bills! (ML +150) 😀

So , Philly loses a game from a terrible coaches call and the Falcons underutilize one of the best weapons in the NFL in crunch time. The Ravens leaned heavily on Henry when it really mattered and even used a direct snap for the 2 point conversion....Great call ! The Falcons have Bijon blocking for a backup QB and lose the game. Why not be creative and get your extreme weapon out in space...a screen...a toss..a reverse....put him in the slot....anything !!! Dont just run him into the big Dline. What a waste of talent...reminds me of when Barry Sanders couldn't get a line. Ya , it sucks losing my combo bets by a couple of yards but it's worse watching talent being wasted by incompetent coordinators and coaches...imho...PJ

⚾ Luke asked for Monday’s best bets. The K department has been summoned!

Yamamoto, Rasmussen, and Henderson are three of today’s four starters. Asking me to pick a daily K leader from that group is like asking a parent to choose their favorite child.

The prices aren’t particularly tempting either, so we’re skipping the leader market and taking:

• Drew Rasmussen 6+ Ks & Yoshinobu Yamamoto 6+ Ks parlay (+150)

A little Drew diligence:

• An ABSURD 67.4% first-pitch strike rate—seventh in baseball in 2026. Skubal is the only pitcher still in the playoffs with a higher mark.
• A 4.8% walk rate—the lowest in the AL among pitchers with at least 170 Ks, and third in MLB behind Sale and Skubal.

Drew gets ahead and keeps the free passes to a minimum. That gives him a chance to spend his pitches chasing strikeouts instead of digging out of counts.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (noun): MLB postseason legend.

• Only three starts since July in which he hasn’t reached 6 Ks.
• Top 20–30 in every category I weigh in my handicap.

Yoshi doesn’t lead any single category I track. He just keeps showing up near the top of all of them. His consistency is his dominance.

Both guys also struck out 10 in their 2026 postseason debuts.

AHEM… Can He Get to 10? 👀

Today, six apiece will do just fine.

I have been building models for baseball and football using Gemini AT my results are pretty good and getting better my question is what are the determining data points I need to factor in for building a NHL model

Fun slate ahead today for sports fans on the west coast.

10am - NHL: Panthers vs. Sabres
12pm - EPL: Coventry vs. Newcastle
2pm - NLCS Game 2: Brewers vs. Dodgers
5pm - ALCS Game 1: Rays vs. Guardians
5pm - MNF: Rams vs. Bills
9pm - Shanghai Masters

Who is your best bet?

I could picture Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve going through the end of the Chargers/Broncos game today.

“You’re up 7 and getting +3.5…You’re good!…”

Then the Chargers get stopped on 4th and 1. Denver scores to tie the game. Next drive Chargers fumble with the “wooo wooo” right away. Another 3 for Denver from that.

“Oh it’s fiiiine…We still got the +3.5…We’re Coverrrrrin!”

Next Chargers drive it’s an “Ohhhh noooo” interception. Denver punches in the front door field goal and it’s all blown. ❌

Chargers need the Benny Hill music at the end of their games. Along with that Commanders finish for the tie today. 😆

From my colleagues at MLB Network Research..

Only the Guardians (77 seasons) have a longer active title drought than the Brewers (57), who have not won a title since the franchise’s inception in 1969 (drought includes 1994).

• The Brewers are seeking just their second pennant in club history (1982 in AL).

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are looking to become the fifth N.L. team to win at least three consecutive pennants (1942-44 Cardinals, 1921-24 Giants, 1911-13 Giants, 1906-08 Cubs).

Tarik Skubal will start opposite of Jacob Misiorowski. Remember, the Brewers were

runner-up to the Dodgers in the pursuit of Skubal at the trade deadline. Milwaukee was loath to part with Game 2 starter Logan Henderson in a potential deal with Detroit.

• By starting Skubal in Game 1, the Dodgers can ensure Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches on five days’ rest in Games 2 and 6.

• Skubal is 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA (7 ER, 32.1 IP) in his last five starts, including a victory in Game 1 of the NLDS last Saturday vs. Atlanta (6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 7 K).

• Skubal allowed six runs – five earned – in 12 innings across two starts vs. the Brewers this season, including a loss at Chavez Ravine on August 16 (6 IP, 2 R, 1 ER).

Jacob Misiorowski allowed two runs in four innings vs. the Padres in Game 1 of the NLDS, striking out six of 18 batters faced. He was done after just 88 pitches (52 of them at 100+ mph).

• In three career appearances (two starts) vs. the Dodgers including the postseason, the Miz has allowed four runs (3 ER) in 17 IP (1.59 ERA), striking out 27 of 66 batters (40.9%).

• Misiorowski was the losing pitcher in Game 3 of the NLCS last year, allowing two runs (1 ER) over 5 IP after opener Aaron Ashby faced just four batters. He struck out 9 of 19 batters.

• Freddie Freeman is 0-7 AB with a walk and four K’s in his career vs. Misiorowski.

Los Angeles went 1-16 AB (.063) with RISP in the LDS. The lone hit was Andy Pages’ go-ahead two-

run single in the seventh on Wednesday. Of their 14 runs in the series, 12 came via the HR.

• Max Muncy was 3-12 AB in the NLDS with three solo HR (Dodger record 19 PS HR).

• Can the Dodgers win the pennant without a productive Shohei Ohtani? He went 2-13 AB with two singles, 2 BB and 4 K’s in the NLDS and has gone a career-high 102 PA without a HR.

• Remember, Ohtani entered last year’s NLCS just 4-27 AB before winning MVP honors.

Jackson Chourio had an RBI in all four LDS games, going 3-16 AB (.188) with a homer and six RBI. The 22-year-old’s 17 career playoff RBI are the most in the Brewers’ club history.

William Contreras in the NLDS vs. San Diego: .375/.444/.750 (6-17 AB), 2 HR, 2 BB.