What I am seeing across the Midwest….

HOW ARE THE PACKERS 12-1 to win the the North?

Look I get it everyone loves the bears now. I was on them Monday night when most were on Seattle

But… they (and the lions) only have a 1 game lead over GB and packers already hammered the bears first time out

I know Jacobs likely is headed for another prolonged suspension so I’m making this play with that in mind.

Simmons is such a stud and an upgrade on the bears D. Kind of like… gasp MICAH PARSONS and yes he’s actually coming back soon

Detroit? Defense is just not good enough IMO

Minny? Offense isn’t good enough IMO

I’m thinking it’s Chicago/Green Bay Christmas Day and you talk about holiday drama!!!! And if I’m sitting on a 12-1 ticket (at circa right now) well merry Christmas to me then! 🤣

Seriously as I said this morning on By The Books (shameless plug 7-10am EST) it’s the best division BY FAR top to bottom

And the packers won’t be at the bottom much longer

in Ned Stark voice

“The north remembers”

#GoPackGo

Three different power ratings agree on one NFL underdog. Two other games offer intriguing betting opportunities.

I went through Steve Makinen's NFL Week 9 analytics report looking for the strongest betting opportunities, with one important adjustment: I placed more weight on current power ratings, coaches and quarterbacks than on historical team trends that may no longer apply.

Three plays stood out.

The source: Read Steve Makinen's complete NFL Week 9 analytics report.

1. Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs. Dallas

This is my favorite play from the report.

All three of Makinen's ratings systems identify Indianapolis as undervalued:

• Power Ratings: 4.0-point edge

• Effective Strength Ratings: 4.5-point edge

• Bettors Ratings: 3.5-point edge

The models suggest Indianapolis should be getting roughly 1–2 points rather than 5.5.

There are counterarguments within Steve's report. The Colts are coming off an ugly blowout loss, and Daniel Jones has struggled in certain situations against high-scoring opponents. But the agreement among the three ratings systems makes Indianapolis the strongest candidate.

The pick: Colts +5.5.

2. Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Atlanta

All three Makinen ratings systems favor Cincinnati, with the Bettors Ratings showing the largest edge at 2.8 points.

There's also a coaching angle: Zac Taylor is 23-8 ATS as a favorite of 3–7 points since 2022.

Atlanta presents a complication. Teams coming off shutout losses have historically been good bounce-back bets, and the Falcons were blanked by Tampa Bay last Sunday.

Still, Cincinnati has the stronger combination of ratings and coach-specific support.

The pick: Bengals -3. I wouldn't chase the line to -3.5.

3. New York Jets at Kansas City — Under 47.5

Two Makinen ratings systems point toward the Under:

• Effective Strength Ratings project 46.3 points.

• Bettors Ratings project 44.3 points.

There's a relevant coaching trend, too: Andy Reid's teams are 37-11 to the Under as home favorites of seven points or more since 2011.

Makinen also identifies this matchup as an Under candidate based on DraftKings betting splits, with unusually heavy money on the Over. But there is still plenty of time for the split to change.

The pick: Jets–Chiefs Under 47.5.

These are the strongest candidates I found in the report, not necessarily Steve's own selections. He will file those on Thursday.

The analysis uses the lines in his Wednesday report, so check updated odds and injury information before placing a wager.

The biggest takeaway? Don't count every historical betting trend equally. Current team strength, quarterback situations and coaching continuity should carry more weight than what a franchise did five or 10 years ago.

New Hampshire +1.5 @ Rider

It's official. We just saw lines drop and I wanted to get this one out early. FanDuel only book with this game listed but the wrong team is favored here.

I like UNH as an underdog or even pick 'em.

Thanks everyone for your patience, I can't wait to see how this season goes.

The Angle 26/27: 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)

My big 2: Kirk Ferentz/Iowa and SP Martin Perez

I bring this up because if Kyle Pitts doesn't hit his receiving yard ladder this week vs CIN he will join the list.

I just grabbed Roma Moneyline at Circa for +195 against Manchester United and it’s a number too good to turn down!

Michael Carrick is a dead man walking and should have been let go after the 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth. United followed that up with a 2-0 loss at Chelsea where Morgan Rogers strolled through their defense unchallenged for the opener and Lisandro Martínez got himself sent off with a ridiculous second yellow on Fofana. That’s nine without a win, and the team looks completely broken with no signs it’s going to get better anytime soon

Roma, on the other hand, are flying under Gasperini with a club-record 28 goals in 10 Serie A games, and remain unbeaten in the league. His high-pressing, direct style that made Atalanta so dangerous and won them the 2024 Europa League will be too much for this United side

Starting with OKC/CLE:

Jarrett Allen most rebounds (+200)

- Allen and Isaiah Hartenstein both average 9.2 boards, with Evan Mobley at 8.2. With Chet Holmgren out, Hartenstein has his hands full dealing with Cleveland’s two bigs.

James Harden most assists (+140)

Harden averages nearly two more assists per game than the next closest starter on either team, and we’re getting plus money. No reason to overthink this.

🎯 OKC/CLE most threes made:
• James Harden (+325)
• Donovan Mitchell (+350)
• Evan Mobley (+3500)

- Harden and Mobley each average 2.5 made threes per game; Mitchell averages 2.3. Mobley is shooting 57.7%, while the other two are in the mid-30s. That percentage won’t last forever, and attempts matter. But if Mobley gets more perimeter opportunities against a depleted OKC team, 35/1 gets interesting.

- That also fits my Allen rebound angle: Mobley spending more time outside could leave Allen handling more business on the glass. Take your pick of Harden or Mitchell, with a smaller sprinkle on Mobley. Or stagger the stakes across all three.

For example, a 1u total:
• Harden: 0.45u
• Mitchell: 0.45u
• Mobley: 0.10u

If one wins outright, the net profit across those three tickets is:
• Harden: +0.91u
• Mitchell: +1.03u
• Mobley: +2.60u

Dead heats reduce those returns. Someone else wins outright, and all three lose.

Tyrese Maxey highest scorer, CHI/PHI (+145)

My favorite part of being offered plus money to root for Maxey is that I was going to do it anyway.

Tyler Herro highest scorer, MIL/MIN (+250)

For me, this comes down to Herro or LaMelo Ball (+200). I’m taking Herro tonight.

🎟 Four-leg parlay (+3600):
• Harden most assists (+140)
• Maxey highest scorer (+145)
• Herro highest scorer (+250)
• Luka Dončić highest scorer (-125)

📍 These markets are under each game’s “Leaders” tab on Caesars. Every selection is for that individual game—not the full day’s slate. Not every market is available for every game.

🏈 Side note: Burrow’s 462 is still holding strong for our Week 8 passing leader ticket (+700). Sam Darnold needs to beat his career-high passing yardage by at least 84 yards to spoil it.

Great convos talking bears this am with Jensen and our guests. Marty Hurney likes the over tonight (46.5) which caught my attention and I like the bears side so I went on the hunt for the hook

Found it here in TN

So… as i discussed this am, if you can an affordable teaser price id go for it

I did

Bears +9.5 / O 40.5

Got that at even 💰

Once I got the hook and no juice it gave me exactly what I wanted to fire

We’ll see if it works out but for me, i have to be comfortable making the play at the proper price point and numbers. When they align I fire

🔥 away!

Good luck one and all!

College basketball being played at 3am local time is absolutely nuts. Also these games are on YouTube does anyone know which channel is streaming it all I remember from last year was the audio was egregious.

Was having a wonderful 🏈💰 weekend and then the cowboys had to cowboy 🤦🏼‍♂️

Anyhoo… we get back up on the horse with a can’t lose matchup as a Cowboy fan 🤣

So nice to watch your arch rivals do battle… I can’t believe Dan Quinn is 6 point favs against anyone let alone a Vic Fangio defense

Philly got embarrassed by Dallas on MNF. I expect a much better showing from that eagle front, and quietly think Tanner Mckie acquitted himself quite nicely

This commanders D isn’t very good either

Took Philly +6, over 40.5

Laddered up the rookie makai lemon up to 69.5 yards kid is close to a breakout game could come tonight

Anyway don’t remind me someone is gonna win this division just hand it to the giants since they have a competent head coach

Good luck one and all!

We’re shopping for the most passing yards across Week 8. Two main plays, with a few smaller tickets cleared for takeoff.

✈ Joe Burrow (+700) — 1u
Fourth in the NFL at 275.5 passing yards per game. Tennessee allows the ninth-most at 233 per game, rising to 264 over its last three.

✈ Dak Prescott (+700) — 1u
Eighth in the NFL at 264.4 passing yards per game. Arizona allows the 12th-most, tied with Dallas. Dak should recognize the hospitality.

Both bring strong season-long production into matchups that give me a reason to look their way.

A few smaller shots:
• Patrick Mahomes (+2200) — 0.15u
• Michael Penix Jr. (+2000) — 0.15u
• Caleb Williams (+1800) — 0.15u

All five tickets are for the Week 8 passing yards leader. Total risk: 2.45u.

Please keep your seat belts fastened. We will be checking box scores an unreasonable number of times.

Texas State +11 vs. Boise State

I love what I am seeing with how the betting splits and line movement is shaping up. Line opened 11.5 and is now showing 10.5 at public books.

Those public books are taking a ton of action on Boise State. But the sharper books are seeing a small bet quantity yet high handle on Texas State with the points. I'll ride the dog here to end the night.

2026 Posted CFB Betting: 6-5 (+0.4 UNITS)

Two game-leader markets I’m keeping an eye on:

👑 LeBron most assists

He’s led the game in assists in 2 of the 3 games when all five projected preseason starters have played. In the lone loss, he still had 10 - Andrew Nembhard handed out 14 for Indiana.

Worth tracking when the full starting five is available.

⚡ Tyrese Maxey most threes made

Maxey is 1–5, with a three-way tie accounting for his win. In three of the five losses, he finished just one three behind the leader.

Usually priced around +400 to +500, he’s worth another look each game. Those close finishes catch my attention, though dead-heat payouts matter.

Small samples, so these are nuggets to follow—not automatic plays.

📍 Both markets are under each game’s “Leaders” tab on Caesars. These are leaders for that game, not the full day’s slate.

Just posted some of my favorite NBA plays for today. Super unfortunate last night. Was in the building for Dillon Brooks' flagrant 2, which was a miserable call. Should have gotten our 25+ from him, and I thought the Suns had a run in them. Oh well... https://vsin.com/nba/nba-predictions-today-best-bets-and-player-props-for-saturday-october-31/

Happy Halloween to everyone! My daughter is excited for her Super Bowl!

More I look at the DK and Circa betting splits many cases DK and Circa are often opposite. Example Washington/Nebraska. DK has under 74% of the $ and 53% of the bets but Circa has the Over $65% of the $ and under has 75% of the bets. More so general historical question are their specific markets one or the other betting splits reading are sharper at historically. I see they have the results from prior days but don't see any historical public results beyond previous days on the site?

This is a weird CFB card. Feels like a lot of anticipating of next week's slate, which means CRAZY stuff will happen. Which dogs are LIVE enough to possibly win outright?

My shortlist:

Georgia Tech +7.5 at Pitt

USC +7 vs Ohio State

Florida +12 vs Georgia

Temple +4.5 vs ECU

I'm going live in about 10 minutes on our YouTube channel to talk through some NBA plays for tonight. Check it out if you want some last-minute analysis, and feel free to fire away with some questions. https://www.youtube.com/@HardwoodHandicappers

Tune into VSiN Saturday from 3P-6P ET for Live Bet Satruday as Will Hill and I watch, discuss, and place Live Wagers on College Football as it happens! 

This is my third week posting Saturday picks here on the VSiN Community. The first week had great results! Last week? Not so great! But one of the most important things we can do as Sports Handicappers is sticking to your guns when things go wrong, because they always do in this business. 

As a child of the 80’s, I had the New Edition Cassette Tape called Heart Break. The BET Documentary on New Edition a few years ago was “Must Watch” for someone like me. One of the songs on that tape was called Can You Stand The Rain. It was a great Quiet Storm-type song to impress the ladies back in the day, but I digress. In this world of Sports Gambling, we better be able to stand the rain! From Billy Walters to the Squarest of Squares, we all endure cold streaks. The winners are the ones who keep trusting their proven systems and methods, while not deviating from their game when the noise around them gets louder. The best Sports Gamblers in the world don’t hit 55% winners. It’s tough to remember that sometimes. 

With that in mind, let’s get some winners on this Halloween Weekend! 

ARIZONA STATE +16.5 at #8 BYU 

After a classic “Let Down” spot for BYU, can they recover now in a Big 12 matchup against a team starting a freshman QB for the first time? BYU finally lost their first game ATS last week as well as SU. Bounce back for BYU and Maiden Start for Arizona State QB? Easy call......the other way! 

Line Move: BYU has been –16.5 since Monday, but opened –17.5 last week. 

Betting Splits: 59% of the tickets, and 60% of the money are on BYU. 

Betting Systems: Cover Margin. Arizona State has one of the worst Cover Margins in the nation, averaging losing by –8.83 points ATS. Conference Road Dogs that have a Cover Margin of –6 or worse covers 55% of the time in a good sample size (668-566) 

Best Bet: Arizona State +16.5 

MISSISSIPPI STATE +20.5 at #11 TEXAS 

No more QB Taylor for Mississippi State, and that’s terrible news. On Live Bet Saturday, Will Hill jokes about their backup QB being a Zero-Star Recruit. He isn’t wrong! This is more about Texas. Can you believe in them to cover a 3 TD-spread? I don’t trust Sark and Arch favored anywhere. 

Line Move: Texas was –21 on Tuesday 

Betting Splits: 65% of the tickets, and 75% of the money is on Mississippi State. 

Betting System: Complacency. We played this system last week with SMU, but it didn’t work. But over the last 20 years, Conference Road Dogs playing against a team playig their 3rd or more straight home game covers 57% of the time (226-181), including 5-4 in 2026 

Best Bet: Mississippi State +20.5 

TEXAS STATE +10.5 at #20 BOISE STATE 

Texas State hasn’t been this good since Scott Bakula was QB. 1991, Necessary Roughness. Google it, kids! Texas State is averaging outgaining opponents by over 100 yards per game this season. The line move in this game tells the story, and the fact that Boise State is ranked doesn’t hurt. 

Line Move: Boise State was –12.5 on Sunday. 

Betting Splits: 66% of the tickets and 85% of the money is on Texas State. 

Best Bet: Texas State +10.5 

IOWA STATE +9.5 vs. #24 OKLAHOMA STATE 

Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS and their QB is better than Arch Manning. Then again, many QB are better than Arch Manning. Iowa State is coming off a big loss at Arizona. Is there a better time to buy low and sell high? 

Line Move: Oklahoma State was –10.5 on Sunday 

Betting Splits: 69% of tickets and 70% of money is on Oklahoma State, but line has moved to Iowa State. 

Best Bet: Iowa State +9.5 

STANFORD +22.5 at LOUISVILLE 

How is a 4-3 team a 22.5-point favorite over a 4-4 team in a Conference game? Because Louisville is a very good team that has put up impressive stats that make deserve to be a big favorite. But how many is too many? Stanford hasn’t covered a spread on the road. 

Betting System: Cover Margin. Just like Arizona State, Stanford’s Cover Margin ATS is terrible (-8.14). Conference Road Dogs that have a Cover Margin of –6 or worse covers 55% of the time in a good sample size (668-566). 

Best Bet: Stanford +22.5 

GEORGIA TECH +7.5 at PITTSBURGH 

Georgia Tech is a disappointment in every aspect, but especially being 1-6 ATS. Pitt was once 5-0, then lost their QB, lost to Belichick, and 3 games later they’re 5-3. Both teams are coming off big losses, but Tech’s ATS record stands out. 

Line Move: Pittsburgh was –8 on Thursday 

Betting System: Total Change. When a Conference Road Dog sees the total rise 3 points or more from its open, that Dog covers 56% of the time (372-308), including 12-8 this year. 

Best Bet: Georgia Tech +7.5  

BIG TEN UNDERS 

When in doubt, let’s look for some Big Ten teams to go Under the total later in the season. We aren’t getting the best of these totals now, but they still have value. 

Line Moves: MN/IN was 43.5 on Sunday, WI/IA was 39.5 on Sunday. Both totals have dropped at least 3 points since open. And a majority of money is on the Overs! 

Betting System: Conference Games in which the home team is favored, and the Road Dog won their previous game go Under 54% of the time in a large sample size (1,495-1,331). 

Best Bets: Wisconsin/Iowa Under 36.5, Minnesota/Indiana Under 40.5 

VIRGINIA/#14 WAKE FOREST TOTAL 48.5 

When did Wake become a #14 team? This is nothing more than a Market Play against a team that’s on fire (Wake Forest). Wake has been putting up big numbers in their last 5 games, covering every point spread by a large margin. The public is putting their money on the over. How come this total has gone from 49.5 to 48.5? 

Line Move: Total was 49.5 Thursday, and a majority of the tickets and money are on the Over. Reverse Line Move! 

Best Bet: Virginia/Wake Forest Under 48.5 

Good luck to everyone this Saturday, and all the best to you and yours..... 

The Draftkings betting splits have been down all week on their website. However, VSiN still seems to have Draftkings betting splits listed and available. Are the betting splits on here still accurate? Does VSiN still have access to that information even though the Draftkings website is having trouble providing it?