LIVE BETs on SATURDAY
Join Will Hill and me for Live Bet Saturday, on VSiN from 3P-6P ET as we watch, discuss, and Live Bet College Football as it happens!
The late, great Lem Banker (may he rest in peace) once said, “They play the National Anthem every day, all over the country.” That was his way of saying that we don’t have to bet every single game. In fact, one of the few advantages we have as Sports Handicappers is that we don’t have to bet every game, while the Sportsbooks must put up betting lines on every game.
When I was younger, I thought we MUST bet Monday Night Football! I thought this because the media told us so. Whether we let our weekend winnings ride, or we try to get back what we lost, everybody bets that game because it’s on national television and we have egos to stroke. Even Fantasy Football “experts” told us decades ago that if we can’t decide on who to start, then start the guy on Monday Night Football so you can watch him. Not exactly hard-hitting analysis, is it?
But like you, I’ve learned many gambling lessons the hard way. A Tuesday night Conference USA game can make us as much money as the SEC Championship Game. With that in mind, I’m passing on the Monster games this week like Notre Dame-BYU and Ohio State-Indiana. In my handicapping world, there’s better options in other games than forcing picks on the biggest ones. Lem Banker taught me that. And go look up his Ken Stabler/David Humm story while you're at it.
Here are my Best Bets for Saturday. Betting Systems date back to the 2005 season, and Betting Splits and Lines are courtesy of Circa.
Auburn +19.5 at Georgia
UGA comes off a big road win over Alabama. And while GA is 5-1 ATS, Auburn is 1-4 (including 0-4 ATS vs Power 4 teams). While Auburn is off a bye, they also were an Underdog last time out vs. Tennessee.
Betting Splits: 71% of the tickets and money are on Georgia
Line Moves: Auburn was +20.5 (some places +21) on Friday morning, and that dropped to +19.5 although a majority of money is on Georgia.
Betting System: Conference Road Dogs that were underdogs in their previous game cover 54% of the time in a large sample size (1,297-1136).
Best Bet: Auburn +19.5
Florida +11 at Texas
If this game was 2 weeks ago, Florida wouldn’t be a Double-Digit Dog here. Texas is also coming off of a loss. Even with Florida’s QB Philo banged up, do you trust Arch Manning (preseason favorite to win the Heisman TWO years in a row) to cover a spread this large? Good luck!
Line Moves: Texas was –11.5 early Friday.
Betting System: A Conference Road Dog on a 2-game losing streak covers 54% of the time (308-264)
Best Bet: Florida +11
North Carolina +3 at Duke
Belichick just can’t leave us alone. 2nd consecutive road game in which he is an underdog. Duke is probably the better team, but this is one of the heaviest bet games. And the people are on Duke, as they are 4-1 ATS.
Betting Splits: 54% of the tickets and 59% of the money is on Duke.
Line moves: Every time this number goes to Duke –3.5, it comes back to –3.
Betting System: Short Road Dogs +4 or less always do well ATS (1,033-914, 54%).
Best Bet: North Carolina +3
Rutgers +5.5 at Maryland
Remember UMass going to Rutgers and winning Week 1 as a huge Dog? As lousy as both teams have been, they are a combined 5-6 ATS.
Betting Splits: 56% of the tickets, but 83% of the money is on Rutgers.
Line Moves: Rutgers was +6 on Tuesday.
Betting System: FWIW, Big Ten Road Dogs coming off games in which they scored less than 20 points are 154-111 ATS, 59%.
Best Bet: Rutgers +5.5
TCU +6 Baylor
Baylor is 4-1 ATS while TCU is 2-3, and both teams are off a bye.
Line Moves: This line was Baylor –6.5 on Wednesday.
Betting System: Conference Road Dogs that won 58% or more of their games the previous season cover 54% of the time (884-771), including 11-6 ATS this year.
Best Bet: TCU +6
Michigan State +7 Northwestern
Two things: The analytics say Michigan State can keep this close. And Pat Fitzgerald wants revenge!
Betting Splits: 77% of the tickets are on Northwestern, but 82% of the money is on Michigan State.
Line Moves: Northwestern was –10 as late as Monday.
Best Bet: Michigan State +7
Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech Total 56
No hurricane this week, but Weather Unders are still a thing when the wind is more than 10 MPH and the analytics agree. Both teams have winning records to the Over.
Line Move: This total was 57.5 on Wednesday.
Betting System: As corny as it sounds, when winds are 10 MPH or more the Unders hit 55% of the time in an XL sample size (1,622-1383). That includes 29-25 this season.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech Under 56
Arkansas/Vanderbilt Total 50
Of all the SEC games this week, this is one of them. That’s the nicest thing I can say about it.
Line Move: This Total was 50.5 earlier on Friday.
Betting System: FWIW, when the home team is favored in SEC games involving Vanderbilt, those games go Under 61% of the time (62-40)
Best Bet: Arkansas/Vanderbilt Under 50
Good luck to all on Saturday.....
Love this, Brad. Thanks for posting.
