Hey yall

Just added a few rushing props for SNF

O 5.5 attempts for roshon Johnson +109

O 17.5 Bucky Irving +161

O 64.5 -110 rushing yards for Irving

I see a trenches game

Impose your will game

Both coaches are stubborn and won’t give in even if there’s not a ton of success early

Good luck one and all!

DR

Looks like good opportunity. Bucks slightly better at home but think maybe worth shot on this

This one may end up being little too juiced, but I do like the over in the 1.5 goals in the 1st Period for this game. (lowest current odds I see so far is -160 so may be worth applying a Boost to this to get the odds down)

What Are the Circa Million Leaders Betting? We Built a Top 25 (plus ties) Consensus.

The Circa Million consensus is one of the most closely watched indicators of NFL handicapping opinion each week. But what happens when we narrow the field to the contestants who have performed best?

We decided to find out.

Using the standings through Week 8, we identified the 28 entries at the top of the Circa Million leaderboard, then matched each entry with its five Week 9 selections.

That's 140 picks from contestants who have accumulated at least 28.5 points through eight weeks.

We compared their selections with the consensus from the entire field of 5,717 submitted cards.

The results are interesting — especially for Sunday night's Buccaneers–Bears game.

The Leaders Aren't Buying the Bears Hype

Chicago's 34-17 Monday night victory over Seattle certainly got everyone's attention.

Bears–Bucs was the most frequently selected matchup in this week's Circa Million, appearing on 2,430 cards, or 42.5% of the submitted entries.

The full field was nearly evenly divided:

• Bears -6: 1,301 selections (53.5%)

• Buccaneers +6: 1,129 selections (46.5%)

But the leaders had a very different opinion.

Of the nine Top 28 entries that selected the game, eight picked Tampa Bay +6. Only one backed Chicago -6.

That's an 89% preference for the Buccaneers among the leaders who played the game.

The Top 28 Consensus: Week 9

Here's how the most popular selections among the leaders compare with the entire Circa Million field.

Three Things That Stand Out

1. Minnesota is the leaders' No. 1 selection.

Twelve of the 28 entries selected Vikings +3½ against Buffalo. That's 42.9% of the leaders, compared with 24.9% of the overall field.

But there's a complication: The contest offered Minnesota +3½, while the market subsequently moved to +3. That extra half-point is valuable, especially around a key NFL margin.

2. The Rams and Panthers are tied for second.

Eleven entries selected Rams -4 against Washington, and another 11 took Panthers +2½ against Denver.

The Rams' frozen -4 was also better than the later market price of -4½. That's another reason not to treat every contest selection as an endorsement of the current betting line.

The Panthers' popularity among the leaders is worth noting because they were considerably less popular across the entire field.

3. The overall field's favorite isn't the leaders' favorite.

Saints -3 against Cleveland was the Circa Million's most popular individual selection, appearing on 1,802 cards.

Only nine of the Top 28 entries included New Orleans.

That's not exactly a rejection — 32.1% of the leaders selected the Saints, almost identical to the overall field's 31.5%. But the leaders showed substantially greater interest in Minnesota, Los Angeles and Carolina.

What Should Bettors Take Away?

A few important qualifications.

First, contest picks aren't necessarily betting picks. Contestants are selecting from fixed point spreads, some of which are no longer available at sportsbooks.

Second, these are the 28 leading entries, not necessarily 28 independent handicappers. Some contestants have multiple entries among the leaders, which can make certain opinions appear more frequently.

Third, eight weeks of success doesn't prove that a contestant has a sustainable handicapping advantage. We're looking at a relatively small sample, not declaring anyone a professional bettor.

And finally, a consensus is not a betting system. Popular selections can lose, regardless of who's making them.

Still, the comparison provides another way to examine the weekly contest selections.

Instead of simply asking which teams are most popular, we can ask whether the contestants currently performing best are seeing the board differently.

This week, the answer is yes — particularly on Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Los Angeles and Carolina.

We'll track how the Top 28 consensus performs against the spread and compare it with the overall Circa Million consensus as the season progresses.

Explore all VSiN contest picks and standings

Linking my NBA plays for today here: https://vsin.com/nba/nba-predictions-today-best-bets-and-player-props-for-saturday-november-7/

I hope some people jumped on the P.J. Washington ladder yesterday!

Also, I don't normally write about college basketball for us until March, but I'm watching and betting all basketball. Maybe the community can be a good place for me to post some of my NCAA plays...like I have been with EuroLeague. Split my two CBB picks yesterday.

Today: Northern Iowa vs. Furman UNDER 150.5 (-110), Providence +2.5 (-108), Maryland -2.5 (-110)

The number keeps dropping, and while I think Ohio State’s defense won’t put up a stinker two weeks in a row this game will be more up tempo than people think. Over 44.5 is juicy - I see a Buckeye 28-21 victory.

For those curious...

I rip a pack of cards on my other podcast "Fighting With Numbers" every week. And if I pull a fighter that is fighting the same week...I HAVE to find my way to a bet on said fighter. We've gone a perfect 4-0 on pack bets. It's just some fun side action on a fight night.

Talked it through on First Strike with Dave Ross as well.

This week we pulled Seok Hyeon Ko out a pack. He's a -700 or bigger favorite, so we need to get creative.

I've played him by Decision +125 and also a small play on his Sig. Strike OVER 34.5.

"I'm not superstitious, but I am a little stitious"

Enjoy the violence 👊

FIU -4.5

I realize the "smart" money is on the home team. I disagree. Missouri lost to the two State of Mississippi universities. Texas beat both of them. I am counting on the matchup being the same issues. I shall put my dumb money on the Longhorns and hope the Manning plays adequately, like normal.

I like o1.5 in the first period today in the Lightning/Wild game today

Feels like we could get some major Heisman moments Saturday. Who do you think makes their push?

CJ Carr taking down Miami?

Darian Mensah beating ND without Toney?

Trinidad Chambliss knocking off Georgia?

Kenny Minchey at Tennessee?

Devon Dampier or Bear Bachmeier in the Holy War?

Sam Leavitt vs Alabama?

Someone else?

Tune in VSiN for Live Bet Saturday from 3P-6P ET as Will Hill and I watch, discuss, and Live Bet College Football as the games happen! 

“Every dog has his day.” Tony Montana, Scarface 

As a kid growing up, Scarface was always a must stop movie when flipping channels. The only catch was not to turn it up too loud! With all the F-bombs and cursing, my God-fearing mother would have a fit! 

As a Sports Handicapper, I am always looking to play Road Dogs first. While not of the total “Dog or Pass” mentality, the slight edge historically Road Dogs have over Home Teams and Favorites is too much to ignore long term. And we need every advantage we can get on this side of the window. 

We have 7, count ‘em SEVEN, games in College Football this week with a ranked team facing a ranked team. How is Oregon ranked 23rd? That mystery will remain unsolved. But they will still have that little number “23” next to them on the TV screen. Since 2005, Favorites in Ranked Matchups cash tickets. When ranked teams face off, the Favorites cover 56% of the time (524-424). That includes 14-12 ATS in 2026. 

It’s even better when the Lower Ranked team is favored. Since 2005, when the Lower Ranked team is favored over the Higher Ranked team, those Lower Ranked teams cover 57% of the time (129-98). We have 3 examples this week (Notre Dame, LSU, Tennessee). 

Tony Montana died at the end of Scarface. Insert “using his own product” line here. But the Road Dog Mentality vs. Home Favorites in Ranked Matchups data is not a battle I choose to fight this week!  

My Best Bets for this week (Betting Splits are from Circa, and our Systems date back to 2005). 

KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOTAL 49.5 

Line Move: Total was 51.5 on Sunday. 

Betting System: In SEC games, when the home team is favored and the visitor has a Win % of 62 or more, the Under hits 60% of the time (103-72), including 8-5 in 2026. 

BEST BET: Kentucky/Tennessee Under 49.5 

WEST VIRGINIA +16.5 at TEXAS TECH 

Line Moves: Texas Tech was –17.5 on Thursday. 

Betting System: In conference games where the home team is favored, when the total moves 3 or more points, the Under hits 55% of the time (373-312) 

BEST BET: West Virginia +16.5 

TEXAS A&M +6.5 at SOUTH CAROLINA 

Line Move: South Carolina was –7.5 on Monday. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs averaging 4.0 yards per play or less cover 57% of the time (416-324), including 9-6 in 2026. 

BEST BET: Texas A&M +6.5 

CINCINNATI/HOUSTON TOTAL 61.5 

Line Move: Total was 62.5 Friday morning. 

Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money are on the Over 

Betting System: In Conference games where the home team is favored, if the majority of tickets and money are on the Over, then the Under hits 56% of the time (504-407). 

BEST BET: Cincinnati/Houston Under 61.5 

IOWA STATE +9.5 at BAYLOR 

Line Move: Baylor was –11.5 on Monday 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs that allowed 42 or more points in their previous game cover 55% of the time (605-521). 

BEST BET: Iowa State +9.5 

MARYLAND +5.5 at PURDUE 

Line Move: Purdue was –7.5 on Monday. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing a team that lost their previous game by 6 or more points cover 56% of the time (989-806). That includes 24-17 in 2026. 

BEST BET: Maryland +5.5 

RUTGERS +18 at WISCONSIN 

Line Move: Wisconsin was –19 on Friday morning. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing a team that scored less than 10 points the previous week cover 61% of the time (213-143).  

BEST BET: Rutgers -18 

MICHIGAN STATE +14.5 at MICHIGAN 

Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money on Michigan. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs in games where the Total is 45 of less cover 56% of the time (465-380). That includes 11-9 in 2026, 

BEST BET: Michigan State +14.5 

NC STATE +4.5 vs DUKE 

Line Move: Duke was –6.5 on Monday 

Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money on Duke 

BEST BET: NC State +4.5 

ARKANSAS/AUBURN TOTAL 54.5 

Betting Splits: Majority of money is on the Over 

Betting System: When Conference Road Dogs face teams that haven’t socred more than 27 points in 5 or more consecutive games, those games go Under 55% of the time (596-510) 

BEST BET: Arkansas/Auburn Under 54.5 

COLORADO/ARIZONA STATE TOTAL 48.5 

Live Move: Total was 49.5 on Monday 

Betting System: When Conference Road Dogs are coming off a win, the Total goes Under 54% of the time (596-510). 

BEST BET: Colorado/Arizona State Under 48.5 

Good luck to everyone this Saturday...... 

Roma vs Sassuolo | Saturday, 2:45 PM ET
Serie A’s top scorers host the league’s leakiest defense. Injuries to key players in Roma’s midfield and the demands of Champions League football should see this game open up and Sassuolo get on the scoresheet.
SGP: Both Teams To Score Yes and Over 3.5 Goals (+134)

VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Saturday, 12:30 PM ET
The Bundesliga’s top scorer has just been recalled by Germany, and he faces a tired, struggling Stuttgart side allowing four big chances a game.
Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer (+175)

Inter Milan vs Como | Sunday, 12 PM ET
Inter are without captain Lautaro Martínez, and Como arrive with the league’s joint-best defense and the momentum of a historic 9-1 Champions League win.
Como +0.5 (-105)

Click here for a full breakdown of every match

Hey everyone, just figured I'd share my NBA Cup plays for tonight:

Sides/Totals: https://vsin.com/nba/nba-predictions-today-november-6-best-bets-on-sides-totals/

Player Props: https://vsin.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-top-picks-for-friday-november-6/

I'm going to go live on YouTube at around 1:30 pm PST to talk through some more plays. If you're around, would be awesome if you can hop in. Feel free to ask any questions and I'll try to respond.

Bonus Basketball Plays...

EuroLeague: Crvena Zvezda +7.5 (-151) vs. Olympiacos
CBB: Missouri ML (-125) vs. St. Louis, Yale/UCF Over 152.5 (-105)

Southern Illinois +1.5 vs. UKMC

We have a flip that has turned into an angle play! This game opened with SIU as a 2.5 to 3 point favorite. Now they are dogs in a handful of spots.

Happy a majority of folks hit on UNH, Fairfield still pains me from last night but I am beginning to track how where the line opens impacts this.

Good luck to all today!

The Angle 26/27: 1-1 (-0.1 UNITS)

Georgia on the ML. Top to bottom they are the best team in College Football. They are in a revenge spot coming off a bye week.

Fairfield +1.5 vs. Vermont

When it rains, it pours. We have gotten a second play for the angle tonight. Almost got past me because I assumed all lines were locked.

Fairfield opened as a favorite but has shifted to a dog. Line movement working against this one, but I am playing it all the same. Game starts in just over 2 hours.

The Angle 26/27: 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)

Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon's Survivor Week 9 Considerations:

CFB Best Bets Compilation ft. Will Hill, Scott Spreitzer & Zak Bigelow:

NFL Week 9 Beating the Book Megapod ft. Tanner Buzick:

Great info..another Angle play!!!

This is something I started doing 3 weeks ago with the Circa picks posted on Fridays, I look for a team that is picked at least 3 time more than their opponent. It can be 3 picks versus 0, or 4 picks vs 1. As long as I get 3 positive picks I bet that team.

for example last week

CFB - Sat, Oct 31 at 12:00 PM ET - Wisconsin at Iowa
Alex White : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin
Jack Lenenberg : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin
Doug Fleming : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin BEST BET
Steve Fezzik : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin BEST BET
Frank Carulli : Wisconsin (+2.5) at Iowa
Weston Stradtman : Wisconsin at Iowa - UNDER (36)

I ignore totals if I see a team picked at least 3 times more than their opponent I bet that team. In this case I bet Iowa because they were picked 4 to 1.

here are my results for the last 3 weeks Wins 11 Lost 4

here is a list of the games I bet

Oct 31

Iowa -2.5 Wiscon picked 4 to 1 Win

NC State -7 Calf picked 5-0 Win

Colorado -1.5 Kansas picked 3-0 Win

N Illinois +24 UNLV picked 4-0 Win

Oct 24

N Texas -2.5 at Navy picked 3-0 Win

S Car 2.5 Tenn picked 6-1 Win

Wiscon 3 USC picked 3-0 Win

Houston 6.5 Utah picked 6-0 Lost

Oct 17

Kansas 4.5 Kansas st picked 6-2 Lost

Georgia St 10.5 James Mad picked 3-0 Lost

Penn st 6.5 Michigan picked 3-0 Win

Tenn 7.5 bama picked 3-0 Win

Texas Tech -15.5 Arz St picked 4-0 Win

Wisconsin 2.5 UCLA picked 4-1 Lost

San Jose -6.5 UTEP picked 3-0 Win

Good Luck I will post this weeks picks on Friday

Two close friends have a res to eat tomorrow night at Peter Luger and have been looking forward to it for months. I just called the restaurant to buy a nice bottle of wine to send to the table and the woman who answered my call puts me on hold for 5 minutes, and then returns to tell me that they have no way of doing that. My only option is to purchase a gift cert and email it to my buddies before they arrive. Well done Caesars, well done.

I like today the Blackhawks/Lightning o1.5 in P1 today