Tune in VSiN for Live Bet Saturday from 3P-6P ET as Will Hill and I watch, discuss, and Live Bet College Football as the games happen! 

“Every dog has his day.” Tony Montana, Scarface 

As a kid growing up, Scarface was always a must stop movie when flipping channels. The only catch was not to turn it up too loud! With all the F-bombs and cursing, my God-fearing mother would have a fit! 

As a Sports Handicapper, I am always looking to play Road Dogs first. While not of the total “Dog or Pass” mentality, the slight edge historically Road Dogs have over Home Teams and Favorites is too much to ignore long term. And we need every advantage we can get on this side of the window. 

We have 7, count ‘em SEVEN, games in College Football this week with a ranked team facing a ranked team. How is Oregon ranked 23rd? That mystery will remain unsolved. But they will still have that little number “23” next to them on the TV screen. Since 2005, Favorites in Ranked Matchups cash tickets. When ranked teams face off, the Favorites cover 56% of the time (524-424). That includes 14-12 ATS in 2026. 

It’s even better when the Lower Ranked team is favored. Since 2005, when the Lower Ranked team is favored over the Higher Ranked team, those Lower Ranked teams cover 57% of the time (129-98). We have 3 examples this week (Notre Dame, LSU, Tennessee). 

Tony Montana died at the end of Scarface. Insert “using his own product” line here. But the Road Dog Mentality vs. Home Favorites in Ranked Matchups data is not a battle I choose to fight this week!  

My Best Bets for this week (Betting Splits are from Circa, and our Systems date back to 2005). 

KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOTAL 49.5 

Line Move: Total was 51.5 on Sunday. 

Betting System: In SEC games, when the home team is favored and the visitor has a Win % of 62 or more, the Under hits 60% of the time (103-72), including 8-5 in 2026. 

BEST BET: Kentucky/Tennessee Under 49.5 

WEST VIRGINIA +16.5 at TEXAS TECH 

Line Moves: Texas Tech was –17.5 on Thursday. 

Betting System: In conference games where the home team is favored, when the total moves 3 or more points, the Under hits 55% of the time (373-312) 

BEST BET: West Virginia +16.5 

TEXAS A&M +6.5 at SOUTH CAROLINA 

Line Move: South Carolina was –7.5 on Monday. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs averaging 4.0 yards per play or less cover 57% of the time (416-324), including 9-6 in 2026. 

BEST BET: Texas A&M +6.5 

CINCINNATI/HOUSTON TOTAL 61.5 

Line Move: Total was 62.5 Friday morning. 

Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money are on the Over 

Betting System: In Conference games where the home team is favored, if the majority of tickets and money are on the Over, then the Under hits 56% of the time (504-407). 

BEST BET: Cincinnati/Houston Under 61.5 

IOWA STATE +9.5 at BAYLOR 

Line Move: Baylor was –11.5 on Monday 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs that allowed 42 or more points in their previous game cover 55% of the time (605-521). 

BEST BET: Iowa State +9.5 

MARYLAND +5.5 at PURDUE 

Line Move: Purdue was –7.5 on Monday. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing a team that lost their previous game by 6 or more points cover 56% of the time (989-806). That includes 24-17 in 2026. 

BEST BET: Maryland +5.5 

RUTGERS +18 at WISCONSIN 

Line Move: Wisconsin was –19 on Friday morning. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing a team that scored less than 10 points the previous week cover 61% of the time (213-143).  

BEST BET: Rutgers -18 

MICHIGAN STATE +14.5 at MICHIGAN 

Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money on Michigan. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs in games where the Total is 45 of less cover 56% of the time (465-380). That includes 11-9 in 2026, 

BEST BET: Michigan State +14.5 

NC STATE +4.5 vs DUKE 

Line Move: Duke was –6.5 on Monday 

Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money on Duke 

BEST BET: NC State +4.5 

ARKANSAS/AUBURN TOTAL 54.5 

Betting Splits: Majority of money is on the Over 

Betting System: When Conference Road Dogs face teams that haven’t socred more than 27 points in 5 or more consecutive games, those games go Under 55% of the time (596-510) 

BEST BET: Arkansas/Auburn Under 54.5 

COLORADO/ARIZONA STATE TOTAL 48.5 

Live Move: Total was 49.5 on Monday 

Betting System: When Conference Road Dogs are coming off a win, the Total goes Under 54% of the time (596-510). 

BEST BET: Colorado/Arizona State Under 48.5 

Good luck to everyone this Saturday...... 

Roma vs Sassuolo | Saturday, 2:45 PM ET
Serie A’s top scorers host the league’s leakiest defense. Injuries to key players in Roma’s midfield and the demands of Champions League football should see this game open up and Sassuolo get on the scoresheet.
SGP: Both Teams To Score Yes and Over 3.5 Goals (+134)

VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Saturday, 12:30 PM ET
The Bundesliga’s top scorer has just been recalled by Germany, and he faces a tired, struggling Stuttgart side allowing four big chances a game.
Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer (+175)

Inter Milan vs Como | Sunday, 12 PM ET
Inter are without captain Lautaro Martínez, and Como arrive with the league’s joint-best defense and the momentum of a historic 9-1 Champions League win.
Como +0.5 (-105)

Click here for a full breakdown of every match

Hey everyone, just figured I'd share my NBA Cup plays for tonight:

Sides/Totals: https://vsin.com/nba/nba-predictions-today-november-6-best-bets-on-sides-totals/

Player Props: https://vsin.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-top-picks-for-friday-november-6/

I'm going to go live on YouTube at around 1:30 pm PST to talk through some more plays. If you're around, would be awesome if you can hop in. Feel free to ask any questions and I'll try to respond.

Bonus Basketball Plays...

EuroLeague: Crvena Zvezda +7.5 (-151) vs. Olympiacos
CBB: Missouri ML (-125) vs. St. Louis, Yale/UCF Over 152.5 (-105)

Southern Illinois +1.5 vs. UKMC

We have a flip that has turned into an angle play! This game opened with SIU as a 2.5 to 3 point favorite. Now they are dogs in a handful of spots.

Happy a majority of folks hit on UNH, Fairfield still pains me from last night but I am beginning to track how where the line opens impacts this.

Good luck to all today!

The Angle 26/27: 1-1 (-0.1 UNITS)

Georgia on the ML. Top to bottom they are the best team in College Football. They are in a revenge spot coming off a bye week.

Fairfield +1.5 vs. Vermont

When it rains, it pours. We have gotten a second play for the angle tonight. Almost got past me because I assumed all lines were locked.

Fairfield opened as a favorite but has shifted to a dog. Line movement working against this one, but I am playing it all the same. Game starts in just over 2 hours.

The Angle 26/27: 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)

Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon's Survivor Week 9 Considerations:

CFB Best Bets Compilation ft. Will Hill, Scott Spreitzer & Zak Bigelow:

NFL Week 9 Beating the Book Megapod ft. Tanner Buzick:

Great info..another Angle play!!!

This is something I started doing 3 weeks ago with the Circa picks posted on Fridays, I look for a team that is picked at least 3 time more than their opponent. It can be 3 picks versus 0, or 4 picks vs 1. As long as I get 3 positive picks I bet that team.

for example last week

CFB - Sat, Oct 31 at 12:00 PM ET - Wisconsin at Iowa
Alex White : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin
Jack Lenenberg : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin
Doug Fleming : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin BEST BET
Steve Fezzik : Iowa (-2.5) vs Wisconsin BEST BET
Frank Carulli : Wisconsin (+2.5) at Iowa
Weston Stradtman : Wisconsin at Iowa - UNDER (36)

I ignore totals if I see a team picked at least 3 times more than their opponent I bet that team. In this case I bet Iowa because they were picked 4 to 1.

here are my results for the last 3 weeks Wins 11 Lost 4

here is a list of the games I bet

Oct 31

Iowa -2.5 Wiscon picked 4 to 1 Win

NC State -7 Calf picked 5-0 Win

Colorado -1.5 Kansas picked 3-0 Win

N Illinois +24 UNLV picked 4-0 Win

Oct 24

N Texas -2.5 at Navy picked 3-0 Win

S Car 2.5 Tenn picked 6-1 Win

Wiscon 3 USC picked 3-0 Win

Houston 6.5 Utah picked 6-0 Lost

Oct 17

Kansas 4.5 Kansas st picked 6-2 Lost

Georgia St 10.5 James Mad picked 3-0 Lost

Penn st 6.5 Michigan picked 3-0 Win

Tenn 7.5 bama picked 3-0 Win

Texas Tech -15.5 Arz St picked 4-0 Win

Wisconsin 2.5 UCLA picked 4-1 Lost

San Jose -6.5 UTEP picked 3-0 Win

Good Luck I will post this weeks picks on Friday

Two close friends have a res to eat tomorrow night at Peter Luger and have been looking forward to it for months. I just called the restaurant to buy a nice bottle of wine to send to the table and the woman who answered my call puts me on hold for 5 minutes, and then returns to tell me that they have no way of doing that. My only option is to purchase a gift cert and email it to my buddies before they arrive. Well done Caesars, well done.

I like today the Blackhawks/Lightning o1.5 in P1 today

I dig this post. Coming from WI and growing up a Packers fan, I’ve always had a great bead on them, but I’m in the process of restructuring my outlook on them this year. I had an under 9.5 win ticket on them coming into the season. I thought they’d be pretty bleak, mostly due to an underwhelming O-line and an often overwhelmed defense. But, some early season luck vs NYJ and Tampa Bay has likely trashed that play.

The Jordan Love moon ball is pure poetry and LaFleur/Love have fully leaned into looking long to hit receivers on big plays due to their inability to sustain drives. A rather sharp adjustment that allows for a multitude of penalty opportunities for the opposing D (PIs and Roughing the passer). The NFL basks in the point potential these calls provide. The Pack have seemingly gone all-in on the one area they can thrive as a team, and an area of vulnerability for NFL officials. It is a much more sustainable approach than it would seem. It allows Love & Lady Luck to have more control and doesn’t expose the Pack’s weaknesses on the offensive side.

Hand it to the brain trust of Love & LaFleur for capitalizing on this and giving the Pack a chance to play with anybody.

Although, in regards to the original post…who in the Hell was on Seattle vs The Bears on Monday night? And why? Just the travel aspect and playing on the road vs the 12s? Bears are power rated higher than Seattle in everyone’s book, right? Seattle’s D looked great vs KC but KC has zero offense and one weapon. That can be taken away easily. The Bears are an offensive juggernaut with the greatest offensive head coach our generation has ever seen. Bettors need to remember the NFL is an offensive league, thanks to greedy revenue-hunting, fantasy football and CTE. That fact needs to remain in your handicapping portfolio.

What I am seeing across the Midwest….

HOW ARE THE PACKERS 12-1 to win the the North?

Look I get it everyone loves the bears now. I was on them Monday night when most were on Seattle

But… they (and the lions) only have a 1 game lead over GB and packers already hammered the bears first time out

I know Jacobs likely is headed for another prolonged suspension so I’m making this play with that in mind.

Simmons is such a stud and an upgrade on the bears D. Kind of like… gasp MICAH PARSONS and yes he’s actually coming back soon

Detroit? Defense is just not good enough IMO

Minny? Offense isn’t good enough IMO

I’m thinking it’s Chicago/Green Bay Christmas Day and you talk about holiday drama!!!! And if I’m sitting on a 12-1 ticket (at circa right now) well merry Christmas to me then! 🤣

Seriously as I said this morning on By The Books (shameless plug 7-10am EST) it’s the best division BY FAR top to bottom

And the packers won’t be at the bottom much longer

in Ned Stark voice

“The north remembers”

#GoPackGo

Three different power ratings agree on one NFL underdog. Two other games offer intriguing betting opportunities.

I went through Steve Makinen's NFL Week 9 analytics report looking for the strongest betting opportunities, with one important adjustment: I placed more weight on current power ratings, coaches and quarterbacks than on historical team trends that may no longer apply.

Three plays stood out.

The source: Read Steve Makinen's complete NFL Week 9 analytics report.

1. Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs. Dallas

This is my favorite play from the report.

All three of Makinen's ratings systems identify Indianapolis as undervalued:

• Power Ratings: 4.0-point edge

• Effective Strength Ratings: 4.5-point edge

• Bettors Ratings: 3.5-point edge

The models suggest Indianapolis should be getting roughly 1–2 points rather than 5.5.

There are counterarguments within Steve's report. The Colts are coming off an ugly blowout loss, and Daniel Jones has struggled in certain situations against high-scoring opponents. But the agreement among the three ratings systems makes Indianapolis the strongest candidate.

The pick: Colts +5.5.

2. Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Atlanta

All three Makinen ratings systems favor Cincinnati, with the Bettors Ratings showing the largest edge at 2.8 points.

There's also a coaching angle: Zac Taylor is 23-8 ATS as a favorite of 3–7 points since 2022.

Atlanta presents a complication. Teams coming off shutout losses have historically been good bounce-back bets, and the Falcons were blanked by Tampa Bay last Sunday.

Still, Cincinnati has the stronger combination of ratings and coach-specific support.

The pick: Bengals -3. I wouldn't chase the line to -3.5.

3. New York Jets at Kansas City — Under 47.5

Two Makinen ratings systems point toward the Under:

• Effective Strength Ratings project 46.3 points.

• Bettors Ratings project 44.3 points.

There's a relevant coaching trend, too: Andy Reid's teams are 37-11 to the Under as home favorites of seven points or more since 2011.

Makinen also identifies this matchup as an Under candidate based on DraftKings betting splits, with unusually heavy money on the Over. But there is still plenty of time for the split to change.

The pick: Jets–Chiefs Under 47.5.

These are the strongest candidates I found in the report, not necessarily Steve's own selections. He will file those on Thursday.

The analysis uses the lines in his Wednesday report, so check updated odds and injury information before placing a wager.

The biggest takeaway? Don't count every historical betting trend equally. Current team strength, quarterback situations and coaching continuity should carry more weight than what a franchise did five or 10 years ago.

New Hampshire +1.5 @ Rider

It's official. We just saw lines drop and I wanted to get this one out early. FanDuel only book with this game listed but the wrong team is favored here.

I like UNH as an underdog or even pick 'em.

Thanks everyone for your patience, I can't wait to see how this season goes.

The Angle 26/27: 0-0 (+0.0 UNITS)

My big 2: Kirk Ferentz/Iowa and SP Martin Perez

I bring this up because if Kyle Pitts doesn't hit his receiving yard ladder this week vs CIN he will join the list.

I just grabbed Roma Moneyline at Circa for +195 against Manchester United and it’s a number too good to turn down!

Michael Carrick is a dead man walking and should have been let go after the 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth. United followed that up with a 2-0 loss at Chelsea where Morgan Rogers strolled through their defense unchallenged for the opener and Lisandro Martínez got himself sent off with a ridiculous second yellow on Fofana. That’s nine without a win, and the team looks completely broken with no signs it’s going to get better anytime soon

Roma, on the other hand, are flying under Gasperini with a club-record 28 goals in 10 Serie A games, and remain unbeaten in the league. His high-pressing, direct style that made Atalanta so dangerous and won them the 2024 Europa League will be too much for this United side

Starting with OKC/CLE:

Jarrett Allen most rebounds (+200)

- Allen and Isaiah Hartenstein both average 9.2 boards, with Evan Mobley at 8.2. With Chet Holmgren out, Hartenstein has his hands full dealing with Cleveland’s two bigs.

James Harden most assists (+140)

Harden averages nearly two more assists per game than the next closest starter on either team, and we’re getting plus money. No reason to overthink this.

🎯 OKC/CLE most threes made:
• James Harden (+325)
• Donovan Mitchell (+350)
• Evan Mobley (+3500)

- Harden and Mobley each average 2.5 made threes per game; Mitchell averages 2.3. Mobley is shooting 57.7%, while the other two are in the mid-30s. That percentage won’t last forever, and attempts matter. But if Mobley gets more perimeter opportunities against a depleted OKC team, 35/1 gets interesting.

- That also fits my Allen rebound angle: Mobley spending more time outside could leave Allen handling more business on the glass. Take your pick of Harden or Mitchell, with a smaller sprinkle on Mobley. Or stagger the stakes across all three.

For example, a 1u total:
• Harden: 0.45u
• Mitchell: 0.45u
• Mobley: 0.10u

If one wins outright, the net profit across those three tickets is:
• Harden: +0.91u
• Mitchell: +1.03u
• Mobley: +2.60u

Dead heats reduce those returns. Someone else wins outright, and all three lose.

Tyrese Maxey highest scorer, CHI/PHI (+145)

My favorite part of being offered plus money to root for Maxey is that I was going to do it anyway.

Tyler Herro highest scorer, MIL/MIN (+250)

For me, this comes down to Herro or LaMelo Ball (+200). I’m taking Herro tonight.

🎟 Four-leg parlay (+3600):
• Harden most assists (+140)
• Maxey highest scorer (+145)
• Herro highest scorer (+250)
• Luka Dončić highest scorer (-125)

📍 These markets are under each game’s “Leaders” tab on Caesars. Every selection is for that individual game—not the full day’s slate. Not every market is available for every game.

🏈 Side note: Burrow’s 462 is still holding strong for our Week 8 passing leader ticket (+700). Sam Darnold needs to beat his career-high passing yardage by at least 84 yards to spoil it.