Ignoring all the stats and analytics, just using my eye test the first two weeks.

First the Falcons, they had a shot week one against Pittsburgh but failed to capitalize with a bad turnover leading to the go ahead Watt TD. They looked like the worst team in football against Carolina in a game that was over quick, so Bijan really couldn't make an impact. AJ Terrell being out will not make it any easier on this bottom tier defense. Having Penix back at the helm, hopefully healthy should keep this a competitive game.

Now to Green Bay, they have looked explosive at times, and just downright lazy at others. Vikings have a good defense, and I think the Jets defense is better than what most people think. BUT Green Bay is a poor 4th quarter gameplan from Aaron Glenn away from being a miserable 0-2. Jayden Reed injury doesn't do much for this offense since Watson and Kraft are the primaries. Something just seems "off" in Green Bay and I think it starts at the HC.

To my game bets:

Falcons ML(.5 unit) - desperate team, Lambeau isn't that intimidating in September

Kraft over 45.5 rec yards(1 unit) - Waller and Muth both ripped up ATL.

Bijan Parlay - ATTD & 100 rush/rec yards(1 unit) - Bijan will get fed this game, only way they have a chance

Pitts 1st TD(.25 unit) - Penix favorite target, will be looking for him ALOT

Green Bay has had trouble moving the ball and their offensive line has looked bad and now will be without their best lineman in Bako-Bewele. Their o line ranks 32nd in win rate. Also two other o linemen are injured they've had to play several different combos at guard and tackle vs the jets and looked terrible. They definitely miss Josh jacobs, a very underrated top ten running back who makes Love better and the mediocre o line better. Jacobs is consistent and even if there is no room will get you 4 yards. They lucked out vs the jets as they were the first team in NFL history to have under 200 yards, five fumbles and 14 penalties (for -133 yards) to win a game. Atlanta still has bijan Robinson and get a boost at qb which clearly has been their biggest issue, with Penix returning. Packers also miss Parsons. Last yr green bay started strong looked like the best team in football in October but gradually got worse as season progressed. This yr I see them exact opposite they are playing bad football, and are missing key players, two of whom should be back by mid season in Micah and Josh. Gr bays goal has to be to get to 3-5 or 4-4 and see if they can fix the line by week 10 and make a 2nd h push. Atlanta is in desperation mode at 0-2 esp with Carolina and New Orleans clearly looking like div faves. Still at 0-3 they aren't going to ever be eliminated in the .500 division; where 8 wins has been all u needed to win it twice in the last 4 years 8-9 won it and 9-8 was the # in 2023. They will learn on Bijan tomorrow heavily both on the ground and in the air as they will ease Penix into the game with short passes to bijan and TE Pitts with wr1 Drake London mixed in with deeper routes. I can see Atlanta winning this game outright. Certainly improving the offense with Penix over the poor play of the 3rd &4th stringers they trotted out first two weeks. Defensively Atlanta has the players to at least come close to matching what the jets did last week under DC Jeff Ulbrich. Zdarius Smith returns to Lambeau and already has 2.5 sacks for Atlanta I expect a lot of pressures from a motivated Smith vs his old team, he put up 26 sacks for the Pack over two years span 2019-2020. Line value still there after lookahead line was 7.5 now down to 4.5. anything over a fg I love Atlanta. Again on lookahead line the total was 46.5 now is 42.5 so no value there. I lean under but not strong. The first half under may be worth a play as typically these Thursday games have a way of starting slow and staying under so first h under 21.5 should come in but we missed the best # for the game. There is one more Falcon positive stat, teams coming off overtime games favored by single digits and playing teams on a short week who had no overtime previous week are 0-15 ats last 15 and failed to cover on avg by 12.5 points! Take desperate 0-2 Atlanta plus 4.5 and a little on the $ line

Maybe getting on the road will help The Chargers.

The Atlanta Falcons haven't showed me nothing this season so far. GB has been a little better. But at home GB should romp they should win by at least 2 TD's this line is a little low I think. So jump on it while it is. AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

While I am usually a ‘dog’ and ‘under’ player, Thursday NFL spots can be quite unique.

Last Thursday’s result between Detroit and Buffalo saw the ‘total’ sail ‘over’ and the Bills get the ‘chalk’ cover. Green Bay similarly gets their home opener here after two weeks on the road. This should have the Packers fired up and even trying to put this one away early.

Atlanta heads north after a dismal 34-3 loss at home to the Carolina Panthers. While I don’t see much of a different result here, the Falcons should be good for some late catchup scoring to “front door” a cash for the ‘over.’

The lines have dropped to Packers -5.5 and a ‘total’ of 43.5. I always prefer going against movement and grabbing late value. Likely, bettors are ‘steaming’ Atlanta since Green Bay is coming off an overtime win this past Sunday. That worked last Thursday in backing the Bills when the Lions headed east after an extra period, but the Falcons are a drop in class.

Take Green Bay -5.5 and the ‘over’ 43.5 in straight up bets. The ‘square’ bankrolls should get a rebounding boost from this one after Sunday’s Week 2 action went mostly the other way.

The Atlanta Falcons with Michael Penix could easily be 0-3 after Thursdays matchup. Michael Penix is frail and could be sitting by halftime. Bijon Robinson will be keyed upon by the Green Bay defense. Atlanta will very possibly be calling on the ghost of Steve Bartkowski here to rescue Arthur Blank from the “worst owners” round table.

Share your analysis on the Falcons-Packers game. We publish the best ones in the VSiN Daily newsletter on Thursday.

From Makinen - Small road underdogs have been gold in Week 2 of the NFL - those in the +1 to +6.5 range are 31-32 SU but 44-17 ATS since 2016. Even better are those same small road dogs coming off a loss in Week 1, as they are 16-17 SU but 26-6 ATS (81.3%) in that same span.