EPA Stats
Quick question......what site can I use to see NFL team and player EPA rankings? It's seems the one I have been referencing is WAY different from the stats mentioned on the network. Thanks for the help.
Quick question......what site can I use to see NFL team and player EPA rankings? It's seems the one I have been referencing is WAY different from the stats mentioned on the network. Thanks for the help.
tampa upset ITS THE COWBOYS
I’ll preface this stating, I am a diehard Cowboys fan. With that being said, I have one very simple bet/handicap on this game. Not the line(which Dallas should cover this game by double digits), not the total…Tampa’s offense might not be good enough to score enough on Dallas’ terrible defense. It’s simply the guy who has ZERO touchdowns this year - George Pickens. Pickens should have had 2 last week against Houston, got held out of a break he won against Lassiter and had another opportunity on a PI that just went through his hands. He’s also had a couple dropped balls that could have scored earlier this year. Dak will be looking his way, especially after a huge Lamb game where he will garner more of the attention. Pickens at +120(DK) is my best bet of TNF.
I'm hard at work on the NBA guide right now, so I wasn't able to get a proper post up for the 1000-level tourney in Shanghai today. I'll get back to publishing daily best bets on the VSiN website tomorrow, but a few of my quick caps for the overnight:
Altmaier +1.5 Sets (-147 - 1.5 units) & ML (+188 - 0.5 units) vs. Rune - It brings me no joy fading Holger, who is one of my favorite players on tour. But Altmaier is a player that thrives in the underdog role, and he's getting Rune early in the Dane's comeback from an Achilles tear. I don't see this being one-way traffic, and I can see Altmaier sending Rune home.
Norrie ML (+106 - 2 units) vs. Shapovalov - This match is the next night. I'm not sure what type of form Norrie brings into it, but I do know that I saw Shapovalov get hurt against Alcaraz the other night. Unless he was just selling the crap out of that injury because he wanted to avoid embarrassment against Carlos, it's hard to imagine him being 100% healthy here. And Norrie is an absolute grinder, so he'll make Shapovalov work for everything.
SHANGHAI TOURNEY FUTURES:
- Karen Khachanov To Win Quarter 1 (10-1 risking 0.25 units)
- Novak Djokovic To Win Quarter 2 (+350 risking 1.5 units) & Win The Tournament (14-1 risking 0.5 units)
- Jiri Lehecka To Win Quarter 3 (+650)
Great nuggets from MLB Network Research..
Teams to outhomer the opponent over the past two postseasons have combined to win 40 of 48 games (.833), including 10-3 in 2026.
Teams to score first in the playoffs are 13-4 (.765). Two of those losses are by the Padres in the NLDS.
Looking ahead: Only three teams have been swept in a best-of-five while scoring first in all three games: 2009 Twins (ALDS), 1997 Giants (NLDS), 1976 Phillies (NLCS).
Teams that go up 2-0 in any best-of-five series are 83-10 all-time (89.2%), and they’re 63-7 (90.0%) in the LDS (since 1995).
Teams scoring 4+ runs this postseason are 13-0…46-9 (.836) over the last two playoffs.
The Rays have just 23 whiffs in 139 swings (16.5 whiff pct) vs. the Yankees in the ALDS…Yankee pitching had a 31.3 whiff pct vs. the Red Sox (45 whiffs in 144 swings).
Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes a postseason road start. Remember, he threw two complete games on the road last October while joining Nathan Eovaldi (2023) as the only pitchers to win four games on the road in a single postseason (4-0, 1.01 ERA, 26.2 IP).
Since 1969, only two starting pitchers (min. 30 IP) have a lower road ERA in the postseason than Yamamoto (1.45): Madison Bumgarner (0.50) & Anibal Sanchez (1.34).
Lionel Messi plays his last international game with Argentina today. There are a couple of wagering opportunities. The sacrificial lamb for this game is the country of Benin ranked 93rd in FIFA rankings. Argentina ranked #2. The line for this game is 4 1/2 with an over of 5 1/2. Messi to score anytime is - 901 (not playable but I threw it in a couple of parlays). To score first is +120 which is worth a shot, his teammates are going to be setting him up all the time, and I would think the Benin players know their role in this game. My favorite play is both halves over 1 1/2 at around -160. I also am going to take a chance on the +260 for both teams to score. Argentina will be focusing on Messi scoring goals not defending so Benin might get a goal. Good luck!
plays:
Both halves over 1 1/2 -160
BTTS yes+280
Messi to score first goal +120
Cowboys 18-3 over run first half and 10
Overs row for
The game.
These Falcons are the real deal with Michael Penix and Bijan Robinson at the helm and a defense in the backpocket. I wasn’t so sure when I heard Dave Ross and JVT touting them in August. They have it right. Atlanta put on a show tonight.
The dip in the spread, as this game opened up as Saints -3 and is now sitting at Saints -1, as well as the Circa Sportsbook betting splits puts me on the Falcons ML (+101) tonight in this matchup. Earlier splits also favored the UNDER 47.5, BUUUUT, as of about 30 minutes ago, there has been some buy back on the OVER as the handle jumped from 36% to 52%. Both Saints and Falcons trends on MNF say UNDER (but we all know "trends are your friends until they aren't"). So I'm curious, is anyone here betting the total in the game? i would love to hear other's thoughts.
I will discuss these on the show tonight, what do you think?
DPOY: Greg Rousseau 14/1
OPOY: CeeDee Lamb 15/1
NFC Winner: Cowboys +1375
AFC 1 Seed: Jaguars +500
NFC 1 Seed: Bears +800
Heisman Trophy: Gunner Stockton 35/1
Just added falcons 1H +0.5 saints have been AWFUL so far in first half’s….
But if the trend holds…. And I hope it does… I’ll be looking to hop in at halftime on the Saints because they’ve been so much better in second half’s
Good luck one and all!
Kay vs CLE this year has either Led or Tied after F5 each of 4 games This season. Should be low scoring too.
From my colleagues at MLB Network Research..
Teams to outhomer the opponent over the past two postseasons have combined to win 40 of 47 games (.851), including 10-2 in 2026.
There have been four shutouts in 15 playoff games thus far. Last year, there were just three scoreless contests in 47 games.
The most shutouts in a single postseason is 10 – set in 2016 and matched in 2022.
Teams to score first in the playoffs are 12-3 (.800). Philly’s Game One loss to Atlanta and the Padres’ two losses in Milwaukee are the three defeats.
Looking ahead: Only three teams have been swept in a best-of-five while scoring first in all three games: 2009 Twins (ALDS), 1997 Giants (NLDS), 1976 Phillies (NLCS).
Teams that go up 2-0 in any best-of-five series are 83-10 all-time (89.2%), and they’re 63-7 (90.0%) in the LDS (since 1995).
In the history of the Division Series with the 2-2-1 format, when a team earns a split on the road in the first two games, that team has gone on to win the series 30 of 49 times (61%).
From my colleagues at MLB Network Research..
Teams that go up 2-0 in any best-of-five series are 83-10 all-time (89.2%), and they’re 63-7 (90.0%) in the LDS (since 1995). In the history of the Division Series with the 2-2-1 format, when a team earns a split on the road in the first two games, that team has gone on to win the series 30 of 49 times (61%).
So far in this postseason, starting pitchers have combined to throw 113.1 innings. Relievers have combined to throw 113.2 innings.
Only the Twins (6-23, .207) have a worse cumulative record in the LDS since its introduction in 1995 than the Padres (9-18, .333).
Dave Roberts is one win shy of matching Tony La Russa (71) for second place on the all-time postseason wins list. Roberts’ 70 wins are 10 more than the other seven managers remaining in the postseason, combined.
The Padres fouled off 30 of 88 Jacob Misiorowski pitches in Game 1. That 34.1% foul ball rate was the fifth highest for any pitcher in a start in 2026.
The average fastball velocity in Padres-Brewers Game 1 was 98.5 mph, the highest-ever recorded by Statcast.
Drew Rasmussen’s game score of 88 in Game 1 is tied for the fourth highest in MLB history in a postseason game against the Yankees, trailing only Randy Johnson (91 in 2001 WS Game 2), Cliff Lee (90 in 2010 ALCS Game 3) and Don Drysdale (89 in 1963 WS Game 3).
It’s the third time in postseason history the Yankees lost 1-0. The opposing starters in the other defeats? Hall of Famer Don Drysdale (1963 WS Game 3) and World Series MVP Lew Burdette (1957 WS Game 5).
Jonathan Aranda is one of just seven batters to homer in a 1-0 game since the start of the 2000 Postseason (first since San Francisco’s Evan Longoria in the 2021 NLDS vs. LA).
Grant Taylor on Saturday became the second pitcher in MLB history to record at least 7 outs while closing out a victory in each of his first two career postseason games, joining Nolan Ryan in 1969 (NLCS G3, WS G3).
David Hamilton, batting ninth for the Brewers on Sunday, recorded 15 of his 83 hits this season via bunt—the highest percentage (18.1%) by any player since 2008!
⚾ Sunday: Two games, and somehow the K department still has a full workday.
Didn’t expect a daily strikeout leader market today, but since they posted it…
Official plays:
• Logan Henderson daily K leader (+380) — 0.5u
• Snell + Henderson both 6+ Ks parlay (+112) — 1u
Henderson 7+ (+117) and 8+ (+205) are intriguing, but neither is an official play.
The Padres ranked in the bottom third of MLB in K%, so the matchup isn’t exactly handing out strikeouts...
BUT Henderson brings a 29.6% K rate, a 67.7% first-pitch strike rate, a 53.2% swing rate, and just a 5.2% walk rate.
What does that mean? My man gets ahead, gets swings, and limits the free passes. That’s a promising recipe for keeping the pitch count manageable while piling up Ks.
Half a unit on him taking the crown. Full unit on Snell and Henderson both reaching six.
Who’s everyone backing today?
Only bet I hit last week was a total so let’s go:
Pats-Bills UNDER 49.5
Jags-Bengals OVER 52
Chiefs-Raiders OVER 48
Rams-Eagles OVER 43
You didn’t really think I wouldn’t bounce back from 0–3, did you???
⚾ Saturday: 3–0 SWEEP 🧹
• Messick under 6.5 Ks (-121) ✅
• Rasmussen 7+ Ks (+117) ✅
• Rasmussen daily K leader (+650) ✅
Drew put up 10 Ks and took the crown.
AHEM… Can He Get to 10? 👀
Apparently, yes. A little Drew diligence paid off.
+8.50u on the card with 1u on each.
+19.75u on postseason baseball so far.
WE KEEP ROLLING.
Saturday's Daily K Leader
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