You know it's trouble when the big network pregame show goes to its experts and they all pick the same team.
Hopefully not yours.
That's why I hesitated to feature in yesterday's newsletter that six of seven Circa Friday Football Invitational contestants backed Tennessee +5.5 against Texas.
They cashed — granted, barely — thanks to a late Vols TD in a 20-17 loss.
So why not tempt fate again today?
The most popular NFL game for the Invitational contestants is Raiders at Saints.
Nine handicappers played the side.
Eight took New Orleans -3.
Jeff Petch: Saints -3 ★ BEST BET
Doug Fleming: Saints -3
Weston Stradtman: Saints -3
Chris Macero: Saints -3 ★ BEST BET
Tony George: Saints -3 ★ BEST BET
Randy McKay: Saints -3 ★ BEST BET
Jeff Whitelaw: Saints -3 ★ BEST BET
Jack Lenenberg: Saints -3
The lone Raiders backer?
Chris Fallica: Raiders +3
Plus one play on the total:
Tony Gordon: Raiders-Saints Over 43.5 ★ BEST BET
And this isn't just an Invitational thing. The Saints were also the most popular pick in the Circa Million and the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.
Weather won't be an issue inside the Superdome, but Titans-Giants appears to be the game bearing the brunt of the East Coast storms.
The current forecast calls for rain and strong winds at MetLife Stadium.
The betting market has noticed.
Circa opened the total at 43. It's now down to 37. The Titans and Giants offenses may have contributed to that number as well, right?
VSiN's Pro Football Tailgate Show with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard from 9 a.m.-Noon ET, followed by VSiN Countdown to Kickoff with Stormy Buonantony and Jonathan Von Tobel from Noon-1 p.m. ET.
I asked VSiN Community members yesterday to make their case for their best bet on Sunday's NFL card.
Loyal VSiN subscriber Joe Freda came through with an interesting one on Seahawks-Commanders.
Joe points out that the Circa lookahead line was 2. With Sam Darnold and Marcus Mariota now expected to start, the number has ballooned to 7.5.
Joe thinks the market has overreacted twice — and he sees an opportunity because of it.
BOLT has seven NFL player prop plays for Sunday. The biggest edge on the board involves Malik Willis' pass attempts.
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections →
🏈 NFL Matchups & Advanced Stats →
📊 DraftKings & Circa Betting Splits →
Circa Survivor started Week 3 with 8,610 entries alive.
Green Bay's Thursday-night loss to Atlanta eliminated 497 entries before the rest of the weekend even started. Three more entries failed to submit a pick, leaving 8,110 currently alive heading into Sunday.
More than half the remaining field is riding one team:
🏈 Chiefs — 4,398 picks (51.1%)
🏈 Seahawks — 1,111 (12.9%)
🏈 Lions — 743 (8.6%)
🏈 49ers — 591 (6.9%)
The $100,000-entry Circa Grandissimo is down to 30 entries, and exactly half are on the Chiefs Sunday.
🏈 Chiefs — 15 of 30
🏈 Seahawks — 6
🏈 Lions — 4
🏈 Bills — 3
🏈 49ers — 2
All 30 entries are concentrated on just five teams.
New Orleans -3 is the No. 1 Week 3 consensus play among the 5,790 Circa Million entries, appearing on 1,989 cards.
And among contestants who played Raiders-Saints, 80.3% laid the 3 points with New Orleans.
The Top 5:
1. Saints -3 — 1,989
2. Jaguars -3 — 1,561
3. Bengals -3.5 — 1,485
4. Lions -6.5 — 1,437
5. Ravens -3 — 1,412
With one day left in the regular season, two playoff spots remain open.
NL: The Padres clinched Saturday, leaving the Phillies and Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot. Arizona needs a victory and a Phillies loss to get in.
AL: The Guardians won the AL Central on Saturday, but the AL West will be decided today. The Rangers and Astros enter the finale tied at 80-81, with Houston holding the tiebreaker. The Astros face the Athletics while Texas plays Minnesota.
Greg Peterson likes the Phillies in one of his five plays for today.
>> See Greg's 5 Sunday Best Bets
Farewell: That's a wrap for Greg, who is moving on to other opportunities. I truly appreciate everything he's done for VSiN in his various roles over the years.
There's no practice or qualifying before today's race at Kansas, but Steve Makinen still has his final simulation ready.
Steve's personal predictions:
Top 5: Bell, Larson, Hamlin, Logano, Gibbs
Top underdogs to consider (+1200 or more): Briscoe, Wallace, Elliott, Gibbs
Favorites to struggle: Reddick, Hocevar, Bowman, Berry
The NHL season is almost here, and Jonathan Davis has started rolling out his team-by-team season previews.
He's breaking down the futures market, including each team's outlook and Stanley Cup chances.
>> Read Jonathan's NHL Season Previews
And if you're betting hockey, grab our free DonBest Rotation Guide.
It has the rotation numbers for every NHL game through Nov. 30 — an easy reference to keep handy as the season gets underway.
Nick Menken is 12-4 (75%) this football season after a 5-1 weekend that included a 3-1 NFL Sunday.
That's +$1,150 in documented football profit.
SIC Picks went 6-1 on NFL spreads in Week 2, including a perfect 3-0 on 3-Star picks.
Former NFL team doctor Dr. David Chao uses injury information to help identify betting opportunities before kickoff.
Get a free week of premium picks — normally $79 — with code VSIN at SICPicks.com.
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