NFL Week 6 action ends with Monday night’s matchup in the Bay Area as the San Francisco 49ers host the Washington Commanders. As of Sunday evening, Circa Sports lists San Francisco as 7.5-point home ‘chalk’ with the ‘total’ posted at 52. VSiN Odds show the lookahead numbers were 8 and 49.5, respectively, while Circa’s wager handle on VSiN’s Betting Splits has 80% on the 49ers and 70% on the ‘over.’

San Francisco remained unbeaten this season in last week’s 32-29 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks, while improving to 4-1 ‘ATS’ as a 3.5-point road underdog. The wild affair between the NFC West Division rivals saw five lead changes and a combined seven turnovers. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy guided his crew to reach touchdown paydirt in all three of his team’s red zone trips, while being held to a season-low of 189 passing yards.

Washington came away with a 27-27 tie as a 3.5-point home favorite in last Sunday’s NFC East Division duel with the New York Giants. The Commanders reached New York territory twice in the battle’s 10-minute extra frame but failed to get points on the board. Quarterback Jayden Daniels returned under center for his first game in three weeks after a recent elbow injury. The California native called his own number to dash for two rushing touchdowns in the contest’s second half, while finishing with a season-high 199 passing yards.

For Monday’s betting selections, I am going with Washington +7.5 and the ‘under’ 52 in separate straight tickets. While my VSiN EDGE BOOST Average Joe Contest entry sits at a tough 2-4 mark this week, I did use the Commanders as the seventh pick. The ‘under’ has since gotten my attention as the ‘total’ feels inflated from recent high-scoring games involving these teams.

Daniels should continue to improve in this spot for Washington and catch the “elite” 49ers off guard with his variety of attacking dimensions. The Commanders were a failed two-point conversion away from tying the Philadelphia Eagles in Daniels’ most recent full effort away from home, collecting ATS as 5.5-point road dogs in a 24-22 loss one month ago. Daniels also shined in a west coast trip last season with 231 passing yards and no interceptions in Washington's 27-10 upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point road dog.

San Francisco has had a pair of marquee games in the last two weeks, which could see Kyle Shanahan’s squad take Monday's date more lightly. The 49ers saw two of their touchdowns in Seattle come from quick drives after the Seahawks made costly turnovers deep in their own territory. This not only helped Shanahan and Co. edge out the defending Super Bowl champions in a victory, but also added to ‘over’ backers cashing their ‘total’ tickets.

Look for San Francisco to fall short of covering the ‘number’ on Monday night, while Washington and ‘under’ backers collect at the betting windows.

… could be a YUGE night for #DallasCowboys  NFC east ticket holders at +200 or better…….. 👀 🏈💰

Nobody wants this division. If Dallas wins they’ll probably be odds on by the am…. Something we’ll monitor on by the books week 6 has been pure chaos thus far

Rams lose by 2 and 901 Circa Survivor entries go with them, 31% of the 2,910 alive entering Week 6. 1,281 left, each now holding $19,529 of the pool.

From my colleagues at MLB Network Research..

In a best-of seven playoff series tied at two apiece, the Game Five winner goes on to win the series on 46 of 69 previous occasions (67%).

Drew Rasmussen allowed a season-high-tying eight hits in six innings in Game One last Monday. He was charged with two runs – on solo homers by Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey – in six innings of the Rays’ 7-3 loss.

Parker Messick lost Game Two of the ALCS on Tuesday, allowing three unearned runs in five innings (82 pitches). He allowed 9 baserunners but was helped out by three double plays.

• Messick got just six whiffs Tuesday – his fourth fewest in 35 starts in 2026 (inc. PS).

Patrick Bailey is 9-27 AB with 2 HR and seven runs this postseason, but Austin Hedges will likely catch Messick. Hedges has started behind the dish for 34 of Messick’s 35 starts this season (inc. PS). David Fry caught a three-inning outing from Messick in the season finale.

• Hedges is 0-3 AB with a walk this postseason. He was also hit by a pitch.

The Rays’ top three of the order – Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero – combined for six hits in 14 at-bats (.429) in Game Three with 3 XBH and 5 RBI. That trio had gone 5-34 AB (.147) with 3 XBH and one RBI in the first three games of this series.

• Of the Rays’ 19 XBH in the ALCS, Díaz has four of them – three doubles and a HR.

Since going 0-4 AB in ALDS Game One, Chase DeLauter is batting .333/.429/.500 (10-30 AB) with more walks (five) than strikeouts (3).

Dalton Kincaid grew up in Henderson and starred at Faith Lutheran here in Las Vegas… today he plays his first NFL game in his hometown… on his 27th birthday.

Hometown game. Birthday game. Favorable matchup.

Somebody get this man a reservation for six.
Possibly twelve.

🎂 Anytime TD (+170)
🎂 2+ TDs (+1200)

Is “his family probably bought a lot of tickets” an advanced metric? No.

Will I be factoring it in? Absolutely.

And now for some REAL analysis: the Raiders have allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends this season, tied for the most in the NFL, along with 285 receiving yards to the position.

Kincaid ladder, anyone???🪜

ARE WE DOWN WITH THE VIBES?!?! 👀

I think I may be dreaming, but UCLA is 6-0. The schedule is very favorable the rest of the season. Can the Bruins win the national title? Please share your thoughts.

2 games that strike me as fishy lines. One, 1-4 Texans in London vs 4-1 Jaguars. Jaguars are in their 2nd week in London and are getting 63% of the bets on DK but the line remains below the key number 3. Circa splits have Texans getting bulk of the $$. Why aren't Jaguars favored by more. Public says easy winner. Game two, Carolina with their new look offense vs a depleted Eagles team. It makes sense they are favored but on Saturday line dropped from -3.5 to -3. Strange considering they are getting over 65% of bets on most betting spilt sites that the line would go down. This seems like a Joes vs Pros game.

I'll hold my nose and take 2 stinky cheese plays in the Texans and Eagles. Good luck today!

Sunday’s Week 6 NFL slate includes an afternoon matchup with the New York Giants hosting the New Orleans Saints. VSiN Odds show Circa Sports opened New Orleans as a 1.5-point road favorite, with early movement shifting the line to a pick’em. The ‘total’ was installed at 44.5 and has moved north to 46.5 as of Saturday evening.

New York saw a two-game winning streak snap in last week’s 27-27 tie with the Washington Commanders, while getting the money ‘ATS’ as a 3.5-point road underdog. Giants quarterback Jameis Winston rallied his squad from a late 14-point deficit with touchdown passes to wide out Malik Nabers and tight end Isiah Likely. The battle’s 10 extra minutes left the final score in a deadlock, with New York logging a missed field goal and fumble in its two overtime possessions.

New Orleans picked up its third straight loss in last Sunday’s 23-13 defeat as a 2.5-point home underdog to the Minnesota Vikings. Saints safety Jonas Sanker returned a fumble in the third quarter for a touchdown, tying the game at 13-13. Sanker and Co. went on to allow 10 unanswered points in a late downfall, while their quarterback Tyler Shough tossed his second interception of the game on his crew’s final drive.

The VSiN Betting Splits have shown DraftKings with 84% of its wagering handle on the Giants’ point spread, while Circa has action more mixed with 59% on New Orleans. Both sports books show heavy betting on the ‘over’ handle (DK: 73%, Circa: 90%), with weather conditions expected to be a clear 55 degrees.

For my wagers on this contest, I am going with both New York and the ‘under’ in a pair of straight tickets. Both of these picks have been included among my seven selections for the VSiN EDGE BOOST Average Joe Contest.

The Giants have notched victories in all three of their home dates, with a combined margin of 76-51 to sweep the oddsmakers with a 3-0 ‘ATS’ mark. John Harbaugh’s squad continues to stay under most experts’ radars, while Winston has quietly passed for more yards each week (Last three: 118, 250, 326).

New Orleans travels north after a three-game homestand in Caesars Superdome, with only playing once outside all season. The Saints allowed 33.5 PPG through their four indoor duels, but only 17 in their Week 2 trip to Baltimore. This sets up New Orleans giving up less points than usual against the Giants, but also not having its typical dome traction for added scoring.

I see New York putting up just enough numbers at MetLife Stadium to hold serve with a win, while both sides grind it out for ‘under’ backers to also collect.

2,909 picks across 18 teams. Chalk is Rams at 31.0% of the field.

Picks are in. 2,908 entries still alive, $8,603 implied value.

I am on a few teams here in the Early Slot

IU +3.5

UF TT u19.5

NW -7.5

Leans:

UT -11.5

SMU v Virginia u52

K-State -3.5

Thank you, Scott

Two games on the card today so far that are of interest to me. I always have to go against the grain.

Strong public action on opposing sides, not a ton of movement.

Ball State +6.5 @ Bowling Green
Northern Illinois +8.5 @ Wyoming

Best of luck today.

Join Will Hill and me for Live Bet Saturday, on VSiN from 3P-6P ET as we watch, discuss, and Live Bet College Football as it happens! 

The late, great Lem Banker (may he rest in peace) once said, “They play the National Anthem every day, all over the country.” That was his way of saying that we don’t have to bet every single game. In fact, one of the few advantages we have as Sports Handicappers is that we don’t have to bet every game, while the Sportsbooks must put up betting lines on every game. 

When I was younger, I thought we MUST bet Monday Night Football! I thought this because the media told us so. Whether we let our weekend winnings ride, or we try to get back what we lost, everybody bets that game because it’s on national television and we have egos to stroke. Even Fantasy Football “experts” told us decades ago that if we can’t decide on who to start, then start the guy on Monday Night Football so you can watch him. Not exactly hard-hitting analysis, is it? 

But like you, I’ve learned many gambling lessons the hard way. A Tuesday night Conference USA game can make us as much money as the SEC Championship Game. With that in mind, I’m passing on the Monster games this week like Notre Dame-BYU and Ohio State-Indiana. In my handicapping world, there’s better options in other games than forcing picks on the biggest ones. Lem Banker taught me that. And go look up his Ken Stabler/David Humm story while you're at it.

Here are my Best Bets for Saturday. Betting Systems date back to the 2005 season, and Betting Splits and Lines are courtesy of Circa. 

Auburn +19.5 at Georgia 

UGA comes off a big road win over Alabama. And while GA is 5-1 ATS, Auburn is 1-4 (including 0-4 ATS vs Power 4 teams). While Auburn is off a bye, they also were an Underdog last time out vs. Tennessee. 

Betting Splits: 71% of the tickets and money are on Georgia 

Line Moves: Auburn was +20.5 (some places +21) on Friday morning, and that dropped to +19.5 although a majority of money is on Georgia. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs that were underdogs in their previous game cover 54% of the time in a large sample size (1,297-1136). 

Best Bet: Auburn +19.5 

Florida +11 at Texas 

If this game was 2 weeks ago, Florida wouldn’t be a Double-Digit Dog here. Texas is also coming off of a loss. Even with Florida’s QB Philo banged up, do you trust Arch Manning (preseason favorite to win the Heisman TWO years in a row) to cover a spread this large? Good luck! 

Line Moves: Texas was –11.5 early Friday. 

Betting System: A Conference Road Dog on a 2-game losing streak covers 54% of the time (308-264) 

Best Bet: Florida +11 

North Carolina +3 at Duke 

Belichick just can’t leave us alone. 2nd consecutive road game in which he is an underdog. Duke is probably the better team, but this is one of the heaviest bet games. And the people are on Duke, as they are 4-1 ATS. 

Betting Splits: 54% of the tickets and 59% of the money is on Duke. 

Line moves: Every time this number goes to Duke –3.5, it comes back to –3. 

Betting System: Short Road Dogs +4 or less always do well ATS (1,033-914, 54%). 

Best Bet: North Carolina +3 

Rutgers +5.5 at Maryland 

Remember UMass going to Rutgers and winning Week 1 as a huge Dog? As lousy as both teams have been, they are a combined 5-6 ATS. 

Betting Splits: 56% of the tickets, but 83% of the money is on Rutgers. 

Line Moves: Rutgers was +6 on Tuesday. 

Betting System: FWIW, Big Ten Road Dogs coming off games in which they scored less than 20 points are 154-111 ATS, 59%. 

Best Bet: Rutgers +5.5 

TCU +6 Baylor 

Baylor is 4-1 ATS while TCU is 2-3, and both teams are off a bye. 

Line Moves: This line was Baylor –6.5 on Wednesday. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs that won 58% or more of their games the previous season cover 54% of the time (884-771), including 11-6 ATS this year. 

Best Bet: TCU +6 

Michigan State +7 Northwestern 

Two things: The analytics say Michigan State can keep this close. And Pat Fitzgerald wants revenge! 

Betting Splits: 77% of the tickets are on Northwestern, but 82% of the money is on Michigan State. 

Line Moves: Northwestern was –10 as late as Monday. 

Best Bet: Michigan State +7 

Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech Total 56 

No hurricane this week, but Weather Unders are still a thing when the wind is more than 10 MPH and the analytics agree. Both teams have winning records to the Over. 

Line Move: This total was 57.5 on Wednesday. 

Betting System: As corny as it sounds, when winds are 10 MPH or more the Unders hit 55% of the time in an XL sample size (1,622-1383). That includes 29-25 this season. 

Best Bet: Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech Under 56 

Arkansas/Vanderbilt Total 50 

Of all the SEC games this week, this is one of them. That’s the nicest thing I can say about it.  

Line Move: This Total was 50.5 earlier on Friday. 

Betting System: FWIW, when the home team is favored in SEC games involving Vanderbilt, those games go Under 61% of the time (62-40) 

Best Bet: Arkansas/Vanderbilt Under 50 

Good luck to all on Saturday..... 

Keeping it simple tonight: two games, two straight bets. We found reasons to back both favorites and picked the numbers we wanted.

🏈 Memphis -6.5 (-115) | 1U

The ground game is the biggest attraction here. Memphis averages 247 rushing yards per game at 5.9 yards per carry, facing a Tulane defense surrendering nearly 219 rushing yards per game. That gives the Tigers a path to sustain drives and control the game.

JVT and Dustin Swedelson backed Memphis -7. We’re getting under that key number, meaning a seven-point win cashes. Tulane has faced the tougher schedule and attracted money at Circa, so we respect the opposition and keep this at 1U.

🏈 Purdue -3 (-120) | 1U

Backing the Boilers at home alongside JVT, Zachary Cohen and Bruce Marshall. Purdue has won two consecutive conference games, and Makinen’s Effective Strength and play-by-play projections both make the Boilers roughly nine-point favorites.

Washington’s Elijah Brown brings uncertainty at quarterback, and Purdue’s defense still has something to prove. We paid a little extra to keep the spread at three: a field-goal win returns our stake instead of handing us a loss.

Simple card. Clear reasoning. Now the teams have to deliver.

🤙UnderBoss

Did I miss the Jon Najarian interview

Saturday night’s action in college football includes a Mountain West Conference battle with the New Mexico Lobos visiting the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. VSiN Odds show Circa Sports posting the Lobos as 14.5-point road favorites, with the ‘total’ sitting at 44 as of Friday afternoon.

New Mexico last took the field on October 3, with a 61-7 victory over the UTEP Miners as a 23.5-point home favorite. Lobos running back Cameron Mathews crossed the century mark with 149 rushing yards on 20 carries, while quarterback Toa Fa’avae threw for three touchdowns. Fa’avae and Co. cruised into their bye week with a 5-0 ATS mark at the betting windows this year, while the team’s defense recorded a safety and two touchdown scores of its own from turnovers.

Hawaii logged a third straight loss in last week’s 30-12 defeat against the Arizona State Sun Devils, while holding on to cash as a 20.5-point road underdog. Rainbow Warriors quarterback Micah Alejado connected 25 passes from a season-high of 49 attempts, including one toss to wide out Audric Harris for his squad’s sole touchdown. The duel’s combined 42 points slid below the ‘total’ of 51.5, moving the ‘under’ to 5-0 in Hawaii’s most recent five games.

Based on VSiN Betting Splits from DraftKings, betting handle is currently 79% on New Mexico -14.5 and 68% on the ‘under’ 44.5. While these bettors try to ride New Mexico’s 5-0 ATS streak and the “Hawaii 5-0” run of ‘unders,’ I feel both the point spread and ‘total’ have adjusted too much in this spot. I am backing the Rainbow Warriors as double-digit home ‘dogs’ here, as well as a rare ‘over’ for me with straight tickets on both bets to collect. Will also be considering both plays for this week’s VSiN EDGE BOOST Average Joe Contest.

New Mexico has put up less points on the road than at home (24 PPG), while the bye week may cool off Jason Eck’s crew just enough to miss collecting 'ATS.’ The Lobos have held inferior foes to single digits of scoring in Albuquerque this year, but last season allowed a sizable 37 PPG in their first three road spots against Mountain West rivals.

Hawaii will also give up its share of paydirt here, but should answer back enough to close within cashing range. The Rainbow Warriors’ top two scoring efforts this year both came at Ching Athletics Center (22.5 PPG), with season-high passing yardage from Alejado under center (343.5 YPG) in that pair of duels.

Look for more ball movement action here than the oddsmakers expect, with Hawaii covering the ‘number’ and enough octane from both sides to cash ‘over’ tickets.     

Brooklyn FC inaugural season in the USL has been one to forget with a 4-17-6 record and only 1 road win on the season. The season can't end soon enough. They travel to take on Hartford Athletic team that has playoff seeding to play for. The first match between these two teams was 2-0 win for Hartford and it could have been much worse with Hartford having a 15 to 4 shot advantage and no big chances for Brooklyn. Brooklyn's last 2 road games have been 4-0 losses. I like Hartford to win this game.

Hartford to win -242 (parlay with something)

Hartford - 1 1/2 + 112

Hartford to win and over 1 1/2 -202

Hartford halftime/fulltime -121

Hartford/Brooklyn over 2 1/2 - 173

Crazy game 3-2 Brooklyn, we hit the over but lose the others.

Detroit travels to Tampa to take on the Eastern conference leaders Tampa Bay Rowdies at 6:30 PM CST. Detroit is a tremendously tough team at home but 4-4-5 on the road. Tampa is 8-2-3 at home. Detroit expended a tremendous amount of energy and emotion in their last match with Rhode Island after going down to 10 men in the 23rd minute and surviving to get a hard fought 1-0 win. The player to receive the red card was Detroit's starting GK Carlos Herrera. He will be suspended for the Tampa match. Now they get to travel almost 1000 miles to take on the Eastern conference leaders. I like Tampa to win a close one 1-0 or 2-0.

Tampa to win - 126

Tampa/Detroit under 2 1/2 - 154

Tampa to win and under 2 1/2 +224

Tampa wins 1-0 and we win

I have a juicy ML parlay with Zalgiris and Panathinaikos to win. I'll be sweating it out as I drive with the wife and baby to California, where I'm dragging them to see Wisconsin take on UCLA tomorrow night. Our one-year-old daughter is usually pretty happy and calm, but we'll see if she can hold back tears when she sees her dad crying as Chesney coaches circles around Fickell.

A few days early on this.

Jaylen Brown OVER 19.5 points feels like a play for Tuesday. 14-1 OVER 19.5 his last 15 games, averaging 28.1

https://data.vsin.com/nba/player-props/