I'm going live in about 10 minutes on our YouTube channel to talk through some NBA plays for tonight. Check it out if you want some last-minute analysis, and feel free to fire away with some questions. https://www.youtube.com/@HardwoodHandicappers
Tune into VSiN Saturday from 3P-6P ET for Live Bet Satruday as Will Hill and I watch, discuss, and place Live Wagers on College Football as it happens!
This is my third week posting Saturday picks here on the VSiN Community. The first week had great results! Last week? Not so great! But one of the most important things we can do as Sports Handicappers is sticking to your guns when things go wrong, because they always do in this business.
As a child of the 80’s, I had the New Edition Cassette Tape called Heart Break. The BET Documentary on New Edition a few years ago was “Must Watch” for someone like me. One of the songs on that tape was called Can You Stand The Rain. It was a great Quiet Storm-type song to impress the ladies back in the day, but I digress. In this world of Sports Gambling, we better be able to stand the rain! From Billy Walters to the Squarest of Squares, we all endure cold streaks. The winners are the ones who keep trusting their proven systems and methods, while not deviating from their game when the noise around them gets louder. The best Sports Gamblers in the world don’t hit 55% winners. It’s tough to remember that sometimes.
With that in mind, let’s get some winners on this Halloween Weekend!
ARIZONA STATE +16.5 at #8 BYU
After a classic “Let Down” spot for BYU, can they recover now in a Big 12 matchup against a team starting a freshman QB for the first time? BYU finally lost their first game ATS last week as well as SU. Bounce back for BYU and Maiden Start for Arizona State QB? Easy call......the other way!
Line Move: BYU has been –16.5 since Monday, but opened –17.5 last week.
Betting Splits: 59% of the tickets, and 60% of the money are on BYU.
Betting Systems: Cover Margin. Arizona State has one of the worst Cover Margins in the nation, averaging losing by –8.83 points ATS. Conference Road Dogs that have a Cover Margin of –6 or worse covers 55% of the time in a good sample size (668-566)
Best Bet: Arizona State +16.5
MISSISSIPPI STATE +20.5 at #11 TEXAS
No more QB Taylor for Mississippi State, and that’s terrible news. On Live Bet Saturday, Will Hill jokes about their backup QB being a Zero-Star Recruit. He isn’t wrong! This is more about Texas. Can you believe in them to cover a 3 TD-spread? I don’t trust Sark and Arch favored anywhere.
Line Move: Texas was –21 on Tuesday
Betting Splits: 65% of the tickets, and 75% of the money is on Mississippi State.
Betting System: Complacency. We played this system last week with SMU, but it didn’t work. But over the last 20 years, Conference Road Dogs playing against a team playig their 3rd or more straight home game covers 57% of the time (226-181), including 5-4 in 2026
Best Bet: Mississippi State +20.5
TEXAS STATE +10.5 at #20 BOISE STATE
Texas State hasn’t been this good since Scott Bakula was QB. 1991, Necessary Roughness. Google it, kids! Texas State is averaging outgaining opponents by over 100 yards per game this season. The line move in this game tells the story, and the fact that Boise State is ranked doesn’t hurt.
Line Move: Boise State was –12.5 on Sunday.
Betting Splits: 66% of the tickets and 85% of the money is on Texas State.
Best Bet: Texas State +10.5
IOWA STATE +9.5 vs. #24 OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS and their QB is better than Arch Manning. Then again, many QB are better than Arch Manning. Iowa State is coming off a big loss at Arizona. Is there a better time to buy low and sell high?
Line Move: Oklahoma State was –10.5 on Sunday
Betting Splits: 69% of tickets and 70% of money is on Oklahoma State, but line has moved to Iowa State.
Best Bet: Iowa State +9.5
STANFORD +22.5 at LOUISVILLE
How is a 4-3 team a 22.5-point favorite over a 4-4 team in a Conference game? Because Louisville is a very good team that has put up impressive stats that make deserve to be a big favorite. But how many is too many? Stanford hasn’t covered a spread on the road.
Betting System: Cover Margin. Just like Arizona State, Stanford’s Cover Margin ATS is terrible (-8.14). Conference Road Dogs that have a Cover Margin of –6 or worse covers 55% of the time in a good sample size (668-566).
Best Bet: Stanford +22.5
GEORGIA TECH +7.5 at PITTSBURGH
Georgia Tech is a disappointment in every aspect, but especially being 1-6 ATS. Pitt was once 5-0, then lost their QB, lost to Belichick, and 3 games later they’re 5-3. Both teams are coming off big losses, but Tech’s ATS record stands out.
Line Move: Pittsburgh was –8 on Thursday
Betting System: Total Change. When a Conference Road Dog sees the total rise 3 points or more from its open, that Dog covers 56% of the time (372-308), including 12-8 this year.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech +7.5
BIG TEN UNDERS
When in doubt, let’s look for some Big Ten teams to go Under the total later in the season. We aren’t getting the best of these totals now, but they still have value.
Line Moves: MN/IN was 43.5 on Sunday, WI/IA was 39.5 on Sunday. Both totals have dropped at least 3 points since open. And a majority of money is on the Overs!
Betting System: Conference Games in which the home team is favored, and the Road Dog won their previous game go Under 54% of the time in a large sample size (1,495-1,331).
Best Bets: Wisconsin/Iowa Under 36.5, Minnesota/Indiana Under 40.5
VIRGINIA/#14 WAKE FOREST TOTAL 48.5
When did Wake become a #14 team? This is nothing more than a Market Play against a team that’s on fire (Wake Forest). Wake has been putting up big numbers in their last 5 games, covering every point spread by a large margin. The public is putting their money on the over. How come this total has gone from 49.5 to 48.5?
Line Move: Total was 49.5 Thursday, and a majority of the tickets and money are on the Over. Reverse Line Move!
Best Bet: Virginia/Wake Forest Under 48.5
Good luck to everyone this Saturday, and all the best to you and yours.....
The Draftkings betting splits have been down all week on their website. However, VSiN still seems to have Draftkings betting splits listed and available. Are the betting splits on here still accurate? Does VSiN still have access to that information even though the Draftkings website is having trouble providing it?
Looks like betting splits are back up. Good luck, bro
A couple of more thoughts on the USL Championship playoffs that begin tonight.
Miami FC at Tampa Bay: on paper this should be no contest, number 1 seed vs #8 seed that backed into the playoffs losing its last 2 games. Tampa has 16 shutouts this year and I look for them to win this game going away. They lost to Miami FC on Oct 3rd so they will not take the win for granted.
Play:
Tampa to win -255 (parlay with something)
Tampa - 1 1/2 +105
Tampa to win and over 1 1/2 -202
Tampa to win and over 2 1/2 - 125
Tampa HT/FT -122
Rhode Island FC at the Charleston Battery: Rhode Island has not conceded a goal in the first half in the last 7 games.
Play Rhode Island + 1/2 first half - 242 (parlay with something)
Rhode Island ML first half +265 (small wager)
The USL Championship playoffs start tonight with 4 games in the eastern conference and 1 western conference game. Its win or go home time. Expect tight defensive matches, players will not want to be the one to make a mistake to cost their team a goal. There will be upsets so don't be afraid to play dogs. The double chance on the underdog should be a good wager. I like to play under corners in the first half but not in the second half as teams that are behind will go all out to get a tying goal which can lead to corners. Draws in the first half are also a consideration.
The one game I have an eye on is the Hartford at Detroit match. The atmosphere at Keyworth Stadium in Detroit is going to be crazy with the fans right on top of the players. It is an intimidating atmosphere for visiting teams. Detroit is tough defensive minded team who have given up only 5 goals at home this year and GK Carlos Herrera was just named the golden glove award winner for the league this season. Detroit had 10-1-4 record at home this season. Detroit will sit back and be organized on defense and try to catch Hartford on the counter. Detroit has playoff experience making the playoffs the last six seasons. Hartford makes it second straight playoff appearance but has never won a game in the playoffs. This game goes at 7:00 PM CST.
My suggested plays:
Detroit/Hartford under 2 1/2 - 180
Detroit/ Hartford under 1/2 first half + 149
draw 1st half +100
draw total match + 216
Alternate total under 1 1/2 + 166
Detroit to win and under 3 1/2 + 132
Detroit to win and under 2 1/2 + 255
Detroit draw no bet -224
correct score 0-0 + 528
correct score Detroit 1-0 +400
I don't see the to advance line yet posted but that would also be a play.
I like the over 1.5 in Period 1 in this game
💰cashed
If you didn't catch today's Hardwood Handicappers, or see the VSiN website, I have a few plays up for tonight's three-game slate.
Sides/Totals: https://vsin.com/nba/nba-predictions-today-october-29-best-bets-on-sides-totals/
Player Props: https://vsin.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-top-picks-for-thursday-october-29/
I'm also not going anywhere with EuroLeague plays, even though I have been ice cold since I stopped gatekeeping them: Parlayed Paris Alt +10.5 with Real Madrid ML at +103.
Hope someone hit that Acuff ladder with me! So damn close to getting 35. Fully happens if he doesn't get into some foul trouble.
Arkansas 35/1
Team is loaded this year. nice addition to your cbb portfolio
Headed to Vegas next week ,best Restaurant?
Thanks for the feedback.
And to answer ( what does this have to do with sports gambling )
I do need to eat, to continue gambling.
Also I am a daily listener, I can look up all the bets,but the hosts talks about many different restaurants,but I can’t always remember the ones they mention.
I am betting these hosts know there restaurants.
I just posted three of my NBA player props for tonight, so make sure you check them out at the website. Dropping the link below. I'll also add some more when I go live on YouTube at right around 2:00 pm PST.
For any brave souls joining me on EuroLeague today: Parlaying Besiktas Alt +7.5 with Bologna Alt +7.5 (-109). Also on Partizan ML (-106). https://vsin.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-top-picks-for-wednesday-october-28/
Lost the Besiktas leg on a wide-open blown layup, but the day sweat was still worth it and that was an awesome game.
Today is the battle of Alberta, 2/5 this season with Flames winning 1 already, there is money to be made with an injured Oilers team thats playing cold and a Calgary team that has been a profitable underdog so far.
Read the plays a teams, use your knowledge and VSIN guides/ experts analysis but my play is
Calgary +1.5
Loss today. Flames warm goalie injured in first period, changed possible spread of game.
Good for Oilers, better luck and analysis next time.
I love sports betting but Im also a horse player. If you havent gotten a chance to play the breeders cup. Its some of the best racing in the world and the money making opportunities are great. Especially pick 3s, 4s and 5s. Just find a sequence e.g race 5-8 on friday or saturday and try a multi race wager. I know Mike Somich used to rep for VSIN and he is someone who finds good value in horse racing. Breeders cup is the year end championships in racing their are horses from EU, Japan etc coming here and the racing is fantastic. Check it out! This friday and saturday. The big race on saturday is the BC classic its worth watching if nothing else. https://www.breederscup.com/
Breeders Cup days are always worth checking out. Can be some good overlays on odds. I am not into multi-race exotics but win and place bets can pay well.
So after the ladder of Williams on MNF I see Dustin Swedelson with another RB call and its this kid at 54.5 I bet the over at 58.5 figuring who would bet this guy. It was great to watch him as he has beat Hodgkins and ran hard. Scored a TD and seeking out a line man for the spike. Waiting for the DS RB call today. RB whisperer 😆
Anyone have any news on why Draft Kings betting splits have been down the last few days?
We're working on it. There were some changes to the code and the feed.
Two of my NBA player props posted in here, with one being a ladder 👀. Only one side today (Lakers ML), which I'll post soon + I'm going to do a separate dive on Jalen Williams and what I'm doing with the futures mark.
Also, for anyone watching EuroLeague: Bayern ML (-112), Valencia ML (-108), Baskonia +8.5 (-110) https://vsin.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-top-picks-for-tuesday-october-27/
Take a look at Javonte Williams bets by Dustin Swedelson. I saw this yesterday and thought it was creative but didnt tail it. Nice night...
Dustin has been killin it💰
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