Sweating
I heard Sal Pal back the Broncos big time on Follow the Money. Only reason I bet them tonight. Sheeeeeesh what a sweat. Awesome game.
MNF
Barkley over 15.5 receiving yards is gonna be my Best bet
Tell me if I’m nuts…
Can Jahmyr Gibbs win MVP?
Through 3 games:
307 rushing yards
156 receiving yards
463 scrimmage yards
6 TDs
17-game pace: 2,624 scrimmage yards and 34 TDs
He's on pace to break both the single-season scrimmage yards (2,509) and TD (31) records
LaDanian Tomlinson won MVP when he scored 31 TDs
They will face 5 defenses ranked 20th or worse vs the run, GB and CHI 2x from that group
Detroit should also be favored in most matchups and running late with a lead
LIVE BET SUNDAY: SNF
What is your best bet for SNF?
Oh shiz!
My bets - fade me hard
Pats-Jags under 46
Panthers-Browns over 42.5
Bucs ML +100
Seahawks -8.5
NFL Plays
Here's what I've got on the games today!
Rashee Rice Over 49.5 Rec Yards
Khalil Shakir Over 49.5 Rec Yards
Derrick Henry any time TD
Chase Brown Over 63.5 Rushing yards
Kenneth Walker III Ovr 24.5 Rec yards
Darnell Mooney Over 1.5 Receptions
JSN any time TD
D'Andre Swift Total Rush + Rec Over 74.5 yards
Phi | Chi Under 42
Hope everyone has a great day of betting!
Survivor beware..?
My top 3 “upset alert” selections for Week 3 in the NFL:
49ers (vs Cardinals)
Nick Bosa is out, the San Francisco defensive line is thin and if the pass rush can’t get pressure on Jacoby Brissett, look out. I expect a heavy dose of Trey McBride, a physical Cardinals offense bouncing back from being manhandled by Seattle and a live underdog that can create chaos.
Panthers (at Browns)
Carolina flattened Atlanta last week, but they’re down Devin Lloyd and two other defensive starters. Their inability to stop the run (448 rushing yards allowed through two weeks) is glaring and Deshaun Watson actually looked efficient in Tampa, upsetting the Bucs to crush many survivor entries. This game screams trap spot.
Giants (vs Titans)
Short week for the G-men, no Jaxson Dart for the rest of the regular season and Jameis Winston looks finished. Cam Ward utilizing his legs for multiple scores last week should embolden OC Brian Daboll to press the New York defensive front too. It’s gonna be messy, low-scoring and if Winston’s turnover-prone habits surface, I expect the Titans to capitalize with multiple red zone opportunities.
Week 3🪜
Been debating who to ladder up in NFL Week 3. Finally settling on Cam Skattebo. I wrote in my VSiN.com article about why myself and OptaAI both like Skattebo over rush yards this week. To add to that analysis we are looking at an 80% chance of rain, wind gusts up to 43 mph. Breece Hall was strong vs Tennessee with 102 rushing yards in Week 1. Saquon Barkley was injured just 4 carries into their Week 2 matchup so we didn’t get to see what he could do. Let’s ride with Skatt who doesn’t have a ton of competition for carries and will be vital in the Giants avoiding Jameis Winston turning the ball over:
58+ -114
70+ +152
80+ +220
90+ +340
100+ +550

Sunday Best Bet
There seem to be alot of numbers staring me in the face that I love, which means - UH OH I'm going to have a rough Sunday. But with that being said, one line that is just punching me in the face is the Titans as a dog @ NYG. Granted the Nor'easter is going to affect this game - the revenge factor of Brian Daboll coming back and how terrible Winston looked last week leads me to think the Titans can get this done. Tennessee had the Eagles number all last week and couldn't get the job done. Tomorrow, Salah has the defense shut down the Giants lackluster run game and force Winston to beat them through the air...and well Winston just doesn't have that magic any longer.
Bets below:
Titans ML - 1 unit
Pollard ATTD - 1 unit, Giants have given up multiple TDs to the RB the first 2 weeks.
Jameis INT - 1 unit
Jameis 2 INT's - .5 unit.
Cashing Out TONIGHT: NFL Week 3 Preview & Best Bets!
Hey everyone. Coming up on Cashing Out tonight 10pm Eastern, I'll talk about the market reaction to QB Injuries and if the market has moved too much. Plus my Bettor Day Trench Report, RB Prop Bets and more! Join the conversation!
I'd love to read your comments, questions, betting angles, etc. during the show tonight!
Circa Grandissimo Week 3 Selections
Circa Grandissimo Week 3: 30 picks across 5 teams. Chalk is Chiefs at 50.0% of the field.
30 entries still alive, $256,667 implied value.
Circa Survivor Week 3 Selections
Circa Survivor Week 3: 8,607 picks across 23 teams. Chalk is Chiefs at 51.1% of the field.
8,110 entries still alive, $3,085 implied value.
Omaha Steaks
Not going to lie, the shrimp tacos that they had on last night looked delicious!
Sunday NFL: Commanders +7.5
For my best bet on Sunday’s Week 3 NFL card, I am backing the Washington Commanders +7.5, who host the Seattle Seahawks. I also used it in VSiN’s “Average Joe” contest, hoping a contrarian play will help pick up some ground.
The Seahawks head east after a 31-7 thrashing of the Arizona Cardinals, and also expect to have quarterback Sam Darnold returning under center. While the defending Super Bowl champs go into this battle with momentum, it is a tricky spot for Darnold and Co.
Washington will have backup Marcus Mariota calling the signals, who did not see action in the Commanders’ 38-14 home defeat against the Seahawks last season. Mariota had his share of moments for Washington during 2025, with five of his first seven starts seeing either outright wins notched or defeats by seven points or less. Although the Commanders have logged two losses so far this season, a change at the passing helm could give Washington some spark for its home opener.
Mariota and Co. may also have a ‘back door cover’ chance here should Seattle have a “get in and get out” mindset for this one. Upcoming weeks are travel-friendly for the Seahawks with two home games to start October, and not flying east of the Mountain time zone until December.
The line movement in this duel has been fueled by injury news on the quarterbacks, which soared the ‘number’ north to 7.5 at Circa Sports. Other betting boards have reached as high as 8 for the point spread, making it worth shopping for value. This feels like a double overreaction from Circa’s lookahead line of 2, setting up a good spot for the ‘home dog’ to collect.
Love this CFB future
BYU 5/1 Big 12
LIVE BETs on SATURDAY
Give us your tired, your poor, and your weak.....
Living here in SEC Country (Lexington, Kentucky), it’s all about the SEC. Lexington likes its basketball, but College Football is King in the South.
And nothing beats a good Conference Road Dog in College Football or College Basketball, especially when those Dogs have no public support. In the SEC, they love frontrunners and favorites. That’s why those Dogs are so beautiful, especially early in Conference Season.
Betting Splits are available at vsin.com and Betting Systems date back to the 2005 season.
OKLAHOMA +13.5 at Georgia
The Sooners have done nothing in the last 2 weeks to impress anyone! From losing a game to Michigan on the road in which they were favored, to barely scraping by New Mexico at home last week, nothing says they have a chance heading to Athens this week. While Georgia is perfect this season (3-0 SU and ATS), a road win at Arkansas isn’t exactly one to highlight on the resume once the season ends. Easy win and cover for UGA, right? Not so fast.....
Betting Splits: As of Saturday morning, 79% of bets are on Georgia. But 71% of the money is on Oklahoma. That’s the Sharp money with the Sooners.
Line moves: With a majority of tickets on Georgia to cover, why has this line gone from Oklahoma +14 earlier in the week to its current +13.5? We always like to follow the Reverse Line Move.
Betting System: SEC Road Dogs where the total is 48 or less cover 57% of the time (129-98). The total in this one is 43.5.
Best Bet: Oklahoma ATS
VANDERBILT +10 at Auburn
Auburn is coming off a home loss to Florida, in which both teams put up impressive offensive numbers. And of course, all Sports Bettors remember the Vandy Miracle against NC State. That game will be at the top of Bad Beats lists forever! How does Vandy bounce back after that?
Betting Splits: Tickets are even at 50% on each side, but a whopping 94% of the money is on Auburn to cover.
Line Moves: This is a Steam move. All that Auburn money has moved Auburn –8.5 from last weekend to its current Auburn –10.
Betting System: Vandy is the best Conference Road Dog in the country since 2005, and it’s not close. Vandy is 49-31 ATS (61%) in this spot. No Power 4 Conference Team is close. Here in the South, mentioning Vandy Football has been followed by Dad Jokes for years. But they cash tickets, often undervalued.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt ATS
SOUTH CAROLINA +12.5 at Alabama
Alabama is 3-0 SU, and 2-1 ATS. They’ve scored 143 points in 3 games, 2 of which were against Power 4 programs. While South Carolina lost at home last week to Mississippi State, a team that was tied for the lowest preseason Win Total in the SEC. And after that game, SC fans are calling for their coach’s job. Welcome to the SEC.
Betting Splits: 61% of the bets are on Alabama to cover this spread. But 64% of the money is on South Carolina. That’s the Sharps siding with SC.
Line Moves: This line was Alabama –13 last Sunday night. It was quickly bet down to AL –12.5, and some places –12, before settling on its current –12.5.
Betting System: 10 days ago, the look ahead Total in this game was 46.5. After Alabama has scored all these points, this total is now 54.5. That’s an 8-point move on the Total! History says that overreaction helps the Conference Road Dog. When a Total jumps 3 or more points from its opener, the Conference Road Dog covers 55% of the time (362-300). That includes 2-0 this season.
Best Bet: South Carolina ATS
Catch Will Hill and me on VSiN Live Bet Saturday today from 3P-6P ET as we watch games and react to Live Betting Lines. Cash some tickets today!
Tennis anyone? (Sat, Sep. 26 pick)
I'd be paying attention to the overnight tennis action in Asia no matter what, but I'm especially dialed into my handicapping for it now. I'm currently in New York with my family for my sister-in-law's engagement party, and my wife unfortunately has some type of stomach virus. That means I'm on baby duty with our one-year-old all day, so the only "me time" I'm getting is when everyone else is asleep. So, I'm currently doing some of my write-ups for the site, watching Indiana beat Northwestern, and diving into some tennis odds. One match I like:
Roman Safiullin ML (-137) over Quentin Halys in Hangzhou
I always like it when a higher ranked player is favored in a match. It's like the NCAA Tournament when you see a 12 favored over a 5. Well, Halys is No. 49 in the world, but he's an underdog against a player that sits outside the Top 100.
Outside of that, Safiullin is just a much better baseline player. Halys is really a serve-first player that has very little to his game. I'll lean on Safiullin's solid all-around play here. Best of luck if you're joining me, and I'll have some more on the Pro Picks page!
Revenge game for wandale and daboll
Wandale should be a nice Play for tomorrow against his old team and I also like the Titans to win 😄
Who's winning the AL Pennant?
If you had a $1,000 free bet - who are you placing it on to win the American League pennant and why?
Odds at Circa, as of Friday afternoon, September 25:
Rays +225
Yankees +400
Guardians +475
White Sox +625
Red Sox +650
Astros +875
Rangers 22/1
My choice & reasoning: WHITE SOX +625
Can they win the pennant? Probably not. But remember: it's a FREE BET and their pathway presents excellent positive expected value, whether they end up as the No.2 or 6 seed. At worst, they'll be underdogs in ANY potential matchup for the ALCS - putting you in the driver's seat to, at minimum, guarantee profit by betting their opponent on the series price.
Who do we ladder in NFL Week 3?
I hit the Drake London receptions ladder on TNF at VSiN.com/Picks. Who should we eye for Sunday? The first names I considered:
David Montgomery Rush Yards
Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
Cam Skattebo Rush Yards
Pitts stains
Does Kyle Pitts stink? Betting his unders for the rest of eternity.
Friday CFB Betting Trends
Army at Temple
Jeff Monken
6-4 ATS, 6-4 Under road fav 7 or less
17-12 ATS, 15-13 Under vs conference
KC Keeler
6-2 ATS career as home dog 7 or less, 8-4 as dog
5-0 ATS when total 42.5-49, 4-1
Northwestern at Indiana
David Braun
1-2 ATS, 2-1 Over road dog 14.5-21
Curt Cignetti
0-1 ATS, 1-0 Under home fav 14.5-21
10-8 ATS, 11-7 Over home fav overall
12-7 ATS, 13-6 Over when total between 49.5-56
Clemson at California
Dabo Swinney
7-12 ATS road fav 7 or less
19-10 Under when line +3 to -3
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