Tune in VSiN Live Bet Saturday from 3P-6P ET as Will Hill and I watch, discuss, and Live Bet College Football as the games happen! 

The Hometown Discount. 

In addition to VSiN responsibilities on weekends, I host a weekday show in Lexington, Kentucky. Unlike Live Bet Saturday, the weekday show spends time focusing on the home teams from a handicapping perspective. Our station is the voice of the Cincinnati Reds and Cincinnati Bengals. But in Lexington, it’s all about the University of Kentucky. 

This week, Florida is visiting Kentucky. The Cats are still in the College Football Playoff, but I’m betting Florida getting the points. Not because I’m trying to piss off the local fans, but because the Betting Markets and my Betting Systems say this is a good play. But when I said this on the radio on Monday, the BBN (Big Blue Nation, as Kentucky fans are called) came out of the woodwork as usual. “Who gave you a microphone?” “You’re not one of us!” “I’ll be waiting for you in the parking lot!” “I know where your mother lives.” I’ve heard it all. It’s a slap in the face of the BBN! Listeners have no idea how anyone can go on local radio and proclaim that he’s betting against their beloved team, even with proven data and history that explains why. 

The Blind Resume’ stunt we pulled spoke volumes. A while back, we presented a Blind Resume’ to random people here in Lexington with Team A vs. Team B in a game that evening. Team records, rankings, etc. Everyone took Team A. Then we pulled the curtains back. Team A was Tennessee, and Team B was Kentucky. Everyone polled asked to change their minds and switch to Team B. No facts or numbers changed. Just the name on the front of the jersey. 

People ask me all the time who my favorite team is. My answer is always the same: “Whoever I bet on that night.” Unlike many fans, I get the same amount of sleep if the local teams win or lose. Being able to bet on a team one night, and against that same team the next night, is how Sharps play. I’m playing Florida against Kentucky this weekend. I might lose, but the best Sports Handicappers aren’t influenced by emotions or fandom. They’re influenced by the best process to cash tickets. 

These are my Best Bets for this week. Betting Lines/Splits courtesy of Circa, and our Systems go back to 2005. 

FLORIDA +3 KENTUCKY 

Line Move: Kentucky was –3.5 on Thursday 

Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money on Kentucky 

Betting System: Fading Home Favorites in Conference Games that scored less than 20 points in their previous game hits 55% of the time (1,116-964). That includes 38-27 in 2026 

Best Bet: Florida +3 

TEXAS A&M +2.5 TENNESSEE 

Line Move: Tennessee was –3 on Monday. 

Betting Splits: Huge majority of tickets and money on Tennessee. 

Best Bet: Texas A&M +2.5 

MICHIGAN +10.5 OREGON 

Line Move: Oregon was –12.5 on Monday. 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs in the Big Ten with an average ATS Margin of -2.00 or worse for the season cover 61% of the time (115-77). That includes a crazy 14-2 ATS record in 2026. 

Best Bet: Michigan +10.5 

MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 AUBURN 

Line Move: Auburn was –4.5 on Monday. 

Betting Splits: Huge majority of tickets and money on Auburn 

Best Bet: Mississippi State +2.5 

GEORGIA TECH +14.5 CLEMSON 

Betting System: GT is 1-8 ATS (worst in nation). Conference Road Dogs with an ATS Win percentage of 28% or less cover 57% of the time (676-570). That includes 28-13 in 2026. 

Best Bet: Georgia Tech +14.5 

KANSAS +11.5 TCU 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing teams on a 1-2 game losing streak cover 54% of the time (1.065-929). That includes 44-30 in 2026. 

Best Bet: Kansas +11.5 

ARIZONA STATE +3 CENTRAL FLORIDA 

Line Move: Central Florida was –3.5 on Wednesday. 

Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on Central Florida 

Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing teams with a –1 or worse average scoring margin on the season cover 56% of the time (829-676) 

Best Bet: Arizona State +3 

NORTH CAROLINA STATE +3 SYRACUSE 

Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on Syracuse 

Best Bet: North Carolina State +3 

BOSTON COLLEGE/NOTRE DAME TOTAL 52.5 

Line Move: Total was 53.5 on Monday. 

Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on the Over. 

Best Bet: Boston College/Notre Dame Under 52.5 

ALABAMA/VANDERBILT TOTAL 49.5 

Line Move: Total was 54.5 on Monday. 

Betting Splits: A majoruty of tickets and money are on the Over 

Best Bet: Alabama/Vanderbilt Under 49.5 

LOUISVILLE/NORTH CAROLINA TOTAL 57.5 

Line Move: Total was 61.5 on Monday. 

Best Bet: Louisville/North Carolina Under 57.5 

CINCINNATI/IOWA STATE TOTAL 58.5 

Line Move: Total was 61.5 on Monday. 

Betting System: Cincinnati is 6-3 to the Over this year. In Conference Games, when the Home Team is favored, but the Road Team is going Over the Total in 62% of more of their games, the Under hits 55% of the time. That includes 41-31 in 2026. 

Best Bet: Cincinnati/Iowa State Under 58.5 

ARIZONA STATE/CENTRAL FLORIDA TOTAL 48.5 

Line Move: Total was 51.5 on Monday. 

Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on the Over. 

Betting System: Conference Games when the Home Team is favored, and the Road Team won their previous game, cover 54% of the time (1,511-1,347) 

Best Bet: Arizona State/Central Florida Under 48.5 

SYRACUSE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE TOTAL 53.5 

Line Move: Total was 56.5 on Monday 

Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on Over. 

Best Bet: Syracuse/North Carolina Under 53.5 

WEATHER UNDERS 

All of the following games have the same 3 qualities: The Total has dropped during this week, more money is on the Over, and winds are more than 10 MPH. When that happens, Unders hit 55% of the time (1,646-1,402). 3 games that fit the criteria: 

Best Bets: Wisconsin/Maryland Under 42.5, Kansas State/TCU Under 44.5, Minnesota/Penn State Under 42.5 

Good luck to everyone this week! 

Tennessee State visits Knoxville tonight to take on the Vols. They bring with them the number 1 fastest rate of play in the young season according to covers.com. Both teams are a combined 0-3 to the under so far but I think that changes tonight on Friday the 13th in Knoxville. The o/u is set at 157 1/2 which is probably about right. But I like Tennessee's team total of 92 1/2 over. There should be a alot Tennessee dunks and layups. When Tennessee scores 100 points tonight they will be handing out free Chick Fil A sandwiches or whatever they give away to the students.

Play Tennessee team total over 92 1/2

We are down to 4 teams in the USL Championship playoffs. Louisville City FC at the Charleston Battery on Saturday and Sacramento Republic FC at New Mexico United on Sunday. We will have a new champion this year as Pittsburg was eliminated in the first round. I like New Mexico United to reach the finals as they have the experience from last year of reaching the semi finals . I think that helps them in getting to the championship game. Just a note from the quarter finals, Louisville City FC was down 2-0 to Miami FC in the 79th minute and scored 3 goals late to advance. Not sure if that helps them or hurts them.

I would expect tight, defensive minded first halves with teams not wanting to make mistakes that leads to giving up the first goal. Organization will be a top subject on the pre match talks for coaches.

parlay:

Charleston/Louisville first half under 1 1/2 - 232

New Mexico/Sacramento first half draw +111

for +202 parlay

singles: Charleston Battery draw no bet -145

New Mexico draw no Bet +116

New Mexico + 1/2 - 173

I would also consider playing under 2 1/2 for both games and fulltime draw for both games.

For those of you that are familiar with our "Moneyline Marathon" weekly plays on By The Books, you'll recognize the concept here: looking to potentially pile up some holiday cash for friends, family and presents!? Tail along with me as we try to go 6-for-6 and climb the cash ladder to net us ~$1,600!

PLAY ONE: Arizona State -29.5 vs UL Monroe (-113)

$25 to win $22.12

Randy Bennett's Sun Devils group is winning by an average margin of 19.7 points/game, while holding each of their opponents to under 65 points in every contest this season. UL Monroe is on the front end of a back-to-back, with a game against Grand Canyon tomorrow, so they'll likely empty the bench once this game gets out of hand to save resources for Saturday's contest. Add in the 45 combined turnovers committed by ULM in their last two games, as well as this game being the 3rd they've played in the last five calendar days and Arizona State can throw the hammer down to cover comfortably.

can anyone tell me the best source to find up to date injury report and starting lineups for CBB?

I am not sure why this line keeps moving in favor of the Buckeyes. As a lifelong Buckeye fan, this is one of the “worst” years I’ve seen in Columbus. The team just looked defeated after giving up a fake punt, when LEADING by 11. Leadership is looking rough in Columbus, and don’t see that changing this week. Also, Nicco Marchiol is not much different than Chiles, especially not 2 points worth. I was on Northwestern at +12, for sure on them at +14. Ohio state “should” win. But it’s going to be close. The Buckeyes will struggle to slow down Nicco’s legs as they historically struggle with mobile QBs. This could get ugly in Columbus if the Buckeyes drop this one.

Best Bet: NW +14

Lean over 44.5

Alt line parlay: NW +17.5 & Over 41.5. +168(DK)

Illinois is a live dog tonight for several reasons

1. UCLA has had the turnover battle go their way in many key games (+14 overall). The Illini protects the ball with only 6 turnovers all year.

2. UCLA is hurt on the O line and is 133rd in explosive plays and 86th in success rate. Illini 39th and 33rd in comparison.

3. And my biggest reason, UCLA is 9-0 ATS. No team in the modern era has run the table ATS. The books keep pushing the number up for UCLA games. All good things must come to an end.

   These teams, especially with the injuries, are closer in talent than their records indicate. I expect a close, grind it out game. Take the points and the fighting Illini!

I love Chuba Hubbard and Tyler Warren the most this week.

Chuba Hubbard Over 74.5 vs NO

• NO 3rd most rush yards allowed to RBs

• Opta AI Proj 86.56, +9.3% Edge Over

• Over in 5 of last 6: 79, 81, 33, 120, 122, 82

• 1 game he didn’t get there was a 43-13 blowout vs TB elite run defense
  

RBs vs Saints

NO Judkins 43

PIT Warren 101, Dowdle 41

NYG Tracy 18 (Skattebo suspended)

MIN A. Jones 113

ATL Bijan 145

LVR Jeanty 56, Washington 54

BAL Henry 68

DET Gibbs 156

He should get volume

• Huge divisional game

• On Road, lower risk, lean on run

• No real back up being mixed in, Brooks may return off injury, TBD on workload

Chubba Hubbard Ladder

79+ -113

90+ +133

100+ +200

110+ +300

120+ +425

Tyler Warren Over 43.5

• No Downs or Allen…who else is Jones throwing?

• 7 targets last week, 10 before

• Now team leader with 53 targets

• Jones loves him, had a great repoire last season

• MIA 8th most rec yards allowed to TEs

Tyler Warren Receiving Yards Ladder

42+ -114

50+ +142

60+ +240

70+ +410

80+ +640

Northwestern +1.5 vs. DePaul

One of the three sources has Northwestern as a 9 point favorite. All three agree. We fire again.

The Angle: 4-5 (-0.5 UNITS)

UNLV +1.5 vs. Stanford

Each site showing UNLV as a short favorite, firing here as they're an underdog.

The Angle: 4-5 (-0.5 UNITS)

Kirk Cousins is 278 yards behind Jordan Love. The case at +700: Cousins has a path to an 18th game, five of his nine remaining opponents rank 21st or worse in passing yards allowed, and he gets to throw to Justin Jefferson again. That last part tends to make a quarterback’s life easier.

The extra game

Cousins was traded before his former team’s bye and after Minnesota had already taken theirs. If he plays all nine remaining games, he’ll become the fifth player to play 18 regular-season games after a midseason trade, joining Leonard Williams (2023), Mike Williams (2024), and Rashid Shaheed and Dre’Mont Jones (2025).

If Cousins and Love throw for the same total yardage over their other remaining games, 278 yards in that extra start would pull Cousins even. It also helps that Cousins gets to throw to Jefferson instead of throwing against Minnesota’s defense, which ranks first in passing yards allowed by a wide margin.

The nine games left
Rankings are based on passing yards allowed (1st = best, 32nd = worst):

• Packers (21st) — Away

• 49ers (6th) — Away. Cousins threw for 216 yards against them in Week 9.

• Falcons (26th) — Home

• Panthers (5th) — Home

• Patriots (31st) — Away. Cousins threw for 243 yards against them in Week 5.

• Lions (32nd) — Home

• Commanders (18th) — Home

• Jets (11th) — Away

• Bears (22nd) — Home. The NFC North title or playoff seeding could be at stake.

The 49ers and Panthers are the toughest spots on paper. The stretch I’m circling is New England followed by Detroit, the bottom two defenses in passing yards allowed. That’s where I’d look for Cousins to make up ground. And if the Chicago finale matters for the division or seeding, there’s a reason to expect him to play it.

Love is the benchmark, and Cousins still has to beat the rest of the field. At +700, I’ll take the shot on the extra start, the schedule, and a No. 1 receiver who can turn a routine completion into a chunk play.

Shout-out to Erik Kuselias for bringing this up on Wednesday’s Cashing Out. I liked it even more after digging into the schedule. +700 at Caesars was the best I found. Shop around, and if you find a better number, let your boy know!

Gill and Kelley's NFL Week 10 Survivor Considerations:

CFB Week 11 Best Bets Compilation:

Beating the Book MegaPod ft. Matt Brown (NFL Week 10):

With how bad the 1-11 Jazz are and with the loss of Markkanen for at least a month, which of these upcoming games do the Jazz win before they go to SAC on 12/27?!! They remind me of the 2024 White Sox during their 3-22 start.

@Houston

vsSan Antonio

@LA Clippers

@Los Angeles

vsPhoenix

vsDallas

@Los Angeles

vsDenver

vsPhoenix

@Golden State

@Portland

vsDenver

vsMinnesota

@Chicago

@Boston

@Cleveland

@New York

vsIndiana

@Sacramento

Loyola Marymount +1.5 @ South Alabama

I am seeing the dog as a 6-8 point favorite across all three sources. This is a strong angle play in my opinion if we are really getting into a groove.

The Angle 26/27: 4-5 (-0.5 UNITS)

Tring to find the best three? Its a lot of games

I bet LSU to win the natty in August at +2700 and have been watching them go up and down all year. They are still at +2200 at DK and still have a good shot at getting into the CFP if they beat TX this week and TN next week. Then I'll hedge the hell out of this thing. They are favored vs TX this week and at TN, so get in now if you want to ride the Lane Train!

The time difference probably means I miss a lot of the live action and conversations but looking forward to joining the community and posting some bets.

I might even be able to give some Australian Football League tips when our season starts in April if you have access and hopefully you wake up richer.

Last week, we dug into Steve Makinen's NFL analytics report looking for the strongest betting opportunities—not simply the most eye-catching historical trends, but situations where multiple rating systems and relevant betting angles pointed in the same direction.

The result: 3-0.

See last week's picks and analysis

So we're doing it again for Week 10.

We examined Steve's power ratings, Effective Strength Ratings, Bettors Ratings and situational systems to identify three potential Best Bets.

1. New England Patriots +3 vs. Detroit Lions

Three rating systems agree.

• Power Ratings: 1.5-point edge on New England.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 2.8-point edge.

• Bettors Ratings: 3.0-point edge.

New England also qualifies for a situational system involving teams that have lost four straight against the spread facing a non-conference opponent. Those teams have gone 34-20-2 ATS (63%).

Why we like it: The agreement across all three ratings is the strongest argument, particularly with Circa offering the key number of +3.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers–Cincinnati Bengals Under 50

Two separate ratings models project a lower-scoring game.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 46.6 points.

• Bettors Ratings: 45.8 points.

That translates into model discrepancies of 3.4 and 4.2 points, respectively.

There's also a supporting situational system: road teams coming off a bye have produced a 49-29-1 Under record (62.8%) since 2021.

Why we like it: Both numerical projections point in the same direction, with the market total above each estimate.

3. Carolina Panthers +2.5 at New Orleans Saints

Another unanimous decision from the three rating systems.

• Power Ratings: 1.5-point edge on Carolina.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 2.3-point edge.

• Bettors Ratings: 4.1-point edge.

New Orleans also qualifies for a system fading home favorites with season-long scoring differentials of minus seven points per game or worse. Those teams are 49-76-3 ATS (39.2%) since 2016.

Why we like it: Three-model agreement, supported by a situational system that questions whether New Orleans deserves to be favored.

Steve Makinen's NFL Week 10 Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends

These are our independent selections based on Steve's analytics, not necessarily Steve's own Best Bets. All lines are from Circa Sports on Wednesday evening.

Can we keep it going? Which of these three plays do you like best?

I consider myself a new bettor even though I’ve been doing it for few years. My question is, if I can’t or don’t know how to set my own lines, do I stand a chance at winning? Is just reading line movement and being contrarian enough to win? I just do this for fun but tired of losing. Any advice on what to look for to become better is much appreciated.

Something to lock away for the future , military schools go 3-0 on Veterans Day. Thank you to all the veterans out there for your service!

Air Force defeats Loyola Chicago 107 -93

Navy defeats Penn 81-76

VMI defeats North Carolina Central 65-51

Any tips or suggestions on wagering NBA games when factoring in load management? As a busy dad, it’s hard to keep up with who is playing and who is not. Perhaps I should avoid it altogether but figured I would toss it out there. Thanks everyone and have a great hump day. 🐫

A few tickets I’ve played over the last couple of weeks:

Super Bowl exactas

• Bears over Jaguars (+3500)

• Jaguars over Bears (+4000)

Both teams are bolstering their rosters for a deep playoff push, and both have offensive coaches who play the way I play Madden: more points, please and thank you.

That mentality is a big part of why I like the matchup. Both teams want to keep scoring even when they have the lead. At these prices, I’m more interested in betting on both teams getting there than in deciding now who wins it. The two exactas cover either winner if Chicago and Jacksonville meet in the Super Bowl.

Bears to win the NFC + Sixers to win the East (+3012)

This is a separate ticket built around the same Chicago read. I played it after the Simmons trade and before Bears–Seahawks on Monday night, its currently +2150 on BetMGM but shop around and you might be able to find a better price.

Update: I found the Bears/Sixers at +2394 on FanDuel if you’re in one of those states that has that.

Since Aaron Schatz did his mid-season update on ANG this morning.......

I know DVOA is a moving target for the first few weeks of the season, but taking today's bottom five D's for DVOA against the run heading into week 10 and looking back to the start of the season, #1 RB's are 28-11 (72% win rate) on props to score 1 TD against those D's. This weekend's menu:

CMC vs #28 DAL (-334)

Tuten vs #29 TEN (-167)

Chuba vs #30 NO (-167)

Gordon vs #31 IND (+110)

Charbonnet vs #32 LV (+110)

Not a bad list of talent - Gordon gives me pause, but Charbonnet against the bottom run D by DVOA looks like value here to me. I think the line reflects Hawks inability to score on the ground with Price this season, but Charbonnet is just back from injury and ready to roll. I'll play it now before the line moves. CMC has a TD in every game since week 2. Maybe a CMC/Charbonnet TD prop parlay at +173 seems interesting? LOL pizza money 5 prop parlay........+1365.......naaaah 🤣