Last week, we dug into Steve Makinen's NFL analytics report looking for the strongest betting opportunities—not simply the most eye-catching historical trends, but situations where multiple rating systems and relevant betting angles pointed in the same direction.

The result: 3-0.

See last week's picks and analysis

So we're doing it again for Week 10.

We examined Steve's power ratings, Effective Strength Ratings, Bettors Ratings and situational systems to identify three potential Best Bets.

1. New England Patriots +3 vs. Detroit Lions

Three rating systems agree.

• Power Ratings: 1.5-point edge on New England.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 2.8-point edge.

• Bettors Ratings: 3.0-point edge.

New England also qualifies for a situational system involving teams that have lost four straight against the spread facing a non-conference opponent. Those teams have gone 34-20-2 ATS (63%).

Why we like it: The agreement across all three ratings is the strongest argument, particularly with Circa offering the key number of +3.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers–Cincinnati Bengals Under 50

Two separate ratings models project a lower-scoring game.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 46.6 points.

• Bettors Ratings: 45.8 points.

That translates into model discrepancies of 3.4 and 4.2 points, respectively.

There's also a supporting situational system: road teams coming off a bye have produced a 49-29-1 Under record (62.8%) since 2021.

Why we like it: Both numerical projections point in the same direction, with the market total above each estimate.

3. Carolina Panthers +2.5 at New Orleans Saints

Another unanimous decision from the three rating systems.

• Power Ratings: 1.5-point edge on Carolina.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 2.3-point edge.

• Bettors Ratings: 4.1-point edge.

New Orleans also qualifies for a system fading home favorites with season-long scoring differentials of minus seven points per game or worse. Those teams are 49-76-3 ATS (39.2%) since 2016.

Why we like it: Three-model agreement, supported by a situational system that questions whether New Orleans deserves to be favored.

Steve Makinen's NFL Week 10 Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends

These are our independent selections based on Steve's analytics, not necessarily Steve's own Best Bets. All lines are from Circa Sports on Wednesday evening.

Can we keep it going? Which of these three plays do you like best?

I consider myself a new bettor even though I’ve been doing it for few years. My question is, if I can’t or don’t know how to set my own lines, do I stand a chance at winning? Is just reading line movement and being contrarian enough to win? I just do this for fun but tired of losing. Any advice on what to look for to become better is much appreciated.

Something to lock away for the future , military schools go 3-0 on Veterans Day. Thank you to all the veterans out there for your service!

Air Force defeats Loyola Chicago 107 -93

Navy defeats Penn 81-76

VMI defeats North Carolina Central 65-51

Any tips or suggestions on wagering NBA games when factoring in load management? As a busy dad, it’s hard to keep up with who is playing and who is not. Perhaps I should avoid it altogether but figured I would toss it out there. Thanks everyone and have a great hump day. 🐫

A few tickets I’ve played over the last couple of weeks:

Super Bowl exactas

• Bears over Jaguars (+3500)

• Jaguars over Bears (+4000)

Both teams are bolstering their rosters for a deep playoff push, and both have offensive coaches who play the way I play Madden: more points, please and thank you.

That mentality is a big part of why I like the matchup. Both teams want to keep scoring even when they have the lead. At these prices, I’m more interested in betting on both teams getting there than in deciding now who wins it. The two exactas cover either winner if Chicago and Jacksonville meet in the Super Bowl.

Bears to win the NFC + Sixers to win the East (+3012)

This is a separate ticket built around the same Chicago read. I played it after the Simmons trade and before Bears–Seahawks on Monday night, its currently +2150 on BetMGM but shop around and you might be able to find a better price.

Update: I found the Bears/Sixers at +2394 on FanDuel if you’re in one of those states that has that.

Since Aaron Schatz did his mid-season update on ANG this morning.......

I know DVOA is a moving target for the first few weeks of the season, but taking today's bottom five D's for DVOA against the run heading into week 10 and looking back to the start of the season, #1 RB's are 28-11 (72% win rate) on props to score 1 TD against those D's. This weekend's menu:

CMC vs #28 DAL (-334)

Tuten vs #29 TEN (-167)

Chuba vs #30 NO (-167)

Gordon vs #31 IND (+110)

Charbonnet vs #32 LV (+110)

Not a bad list of talent - Gordon gives me pause, but Charbonnet against the bottom run D by DVOA looks like value here to me. I think the line reflects Hawks inability to score on the ground with Price this season, but Charbonnet is just back from injury and ready to roll. I'll play it now before the line moves. CMC has a TD in every game since week 2. Maybe a CMC/Charbonnet TD prop parlay at +173 seems interesting? LOL pizza money 5 prop parlay........+1365.......naaaah 🤣

I'm going to go live to talk about the NBA slate in about 20 minutes over on YouTube. If you have some time, hop in and join me. Feel free to fire away with questions.

I posted a bunch of plays to VSiN.com earlier, but I have a few new ones I'm giving out on the show!

https://www.youtube.com/@HardwoodHandicappers

Temple +1.5 vs. Charleston
Sam Houston St +1.5 vs. Pepperdine
Sam Houston St +3.5 vs. Pepperdine
American +1.5 @ Drexel

Added more to the SHSU bet with some wild line movement overnight, doesn't appear to be any injury or lineup news to follow up with that.

Green Bay vs Kansas City. A replay of Super Bowl II. The Packers are starting to put it together. Sunday at Lambeau Field vs the Vikings is a test the need to pass. Hopefully the O Line comes to play. Jordan Love has been pretty solid all year. Go Pack Go

Just know every year some team comes out of nowhere and makes the SB. I don’t think anyone had the Pats last year. If you bet futures, look for value. The AFC is wide open, that’s probably the most target rich environment. Of course if y’all are on this chat you knew that already. I kinda like one of these teams to get hot and make a run: Ravens, Raiders, Jets (I know - I’m delusional) but they keep losing very close games (Chiefs game withstanding). If they pick off the Bills this week that might be a match to the fuse

Why are these forums so dead?

At the halfway point of the NFL season, we asked VSiN Daily readers a simple question:

If you had one bet to win the Super Bowl, who would it be?

We offered five contenders at their Circa odds, plus “None of the above.”

535 readers voted. And it was close.

• 49ers (+600): 121 votes (22.6%)

• Jaguars (+850): 114 (21.3%)

• None of the above: 112 (20.9%)

• Bills (+550): 89 (16.6%)

• Bears (+650): 67 (12.5%)

• Chiefs (+900): 32 (6.0%)

The 49ers won the vote, but Jacksonville might be the more interesting story.

The Jaguars were just seven votes behind San Francisco, and several readers specifically cited their trade deadline acquisitions.

One Jacksonville supporter wrote:

"Jaguars are loaded. Offense, Defense and Coaching."

Another pointed to the Jessie Bates acquisition and Trevor Lawrence's play.

But what about the teams we left off the ballot?

More than one in five readers chose “None of the above.”

Cincinnati, Green Bay and Denver were recurring write-in favorites. Several readers argued that this season is unusually wide open.

One reader summed it up:

"There is no great team, and as wide open as it has been in years."

And the Chiefs?

Despite their championship pedigree, Kansas City received just 32 votes — 6% of the total.

Now we'd like to hear more from you:

Did we leave out the eventual champion? Are the Jaguars legitimate contenders after their deadline moves? Or are the 49ers the team to beat?

Tell us in the comments.

You know he’ll be busting his ass tonight against the Celtics. Rebounds is a hustle stat, so I’m taking his over seven even money.

Let’s have a great day and good luck with your investments today.🌮💰🏈🏀

The last game in single digits before we turn it over to week 10 in the blink of an eye….

As discussed this am on By The Books (shameless plug 7-10am EST) I’m rolling with Buffalo -3 and played O44

Bought in on the dip and now it seems the total is back on the rise

Its a play that Wentz>murray in the pass game and should get JJ involved much more and trust Josh Allen will eventually get the best of Brian Flores

Also played JJ anytime TD +150 it’s a force feed situation for the Vikings offense and I expect them to have to throw a lot tonight

Best of luck one and all!!

DR

Some of the worst reffing I've probably ever seen in football - I've been watching football - all levels my entire life, including one of my sons played - get it right or don't call it AND call the game both ways. I've never thought the games were rigged but that was a tough one to swallow

Let's get a thread going - what are you taking for tonight's game? Drop it below 👇

This looks pretty good based on past trends

Texas vs Grambling St o/u is 152.5(FanDuel). Both play at a good pace in a small sample size. Texas has averaged 103 PPG in their two games and Grambling dropped 89 on Northern Illinois. I think Texas eclipses the 100 point barrier again tonight and Grambling can put up over 53 points to cover this number. Wouldn’t be surprised if this flew over honestly.

Hey yall

Just added a few rushing props for SNF

O 5.5 attempts for roshon Johnson +109

O 17.5 Bucky Irving +161

O 64.5 -110 rushing yards for Irving

I see a trenches game

Impose your will game

Both coaches are stubborn and won’t give in even if there’s not a ton of success early

Good luck one and all!

DR

Looks like good opportunity. Bucks slightly better at home but think maybe worth shot on this

This one may end up being little too juiced, but I do like the over in the 1.5 goals in the 1st Period for this game. (lowest current odds I see so far is -160 so may be worth applying a Boost to this to get the odds down)