Northwestern +1.5 vs. DePaul

One of the three sources has Northwestern as a 9 point favorite. All three agree. We fire again.

The Angle: 4-5 (-0.5 UNITS)

UNLV +1.5 vs. Stanford

Each site showing UNLV as a short favorite, firing here as they're an underdog.

The Angle: 4-5 (-0.5 UNITS)

Kirk Cousins is 278 yards behind Jordan Love. The case at +700: Cousins has a path to an 18th game, five of his nine remaining opponents rank 21st or worse in passing yards allowed, and he gets to throw to Justin Jefferson again. That last part tends to make a quarterback’s life easier.

The extra game

Cousins was traded before his former team’s bye and after Minnesota had already taken theirs. If he plays all nine remaining games, he’ll become the fifth player to play 18 regular-season games after a midseason trade, joining Leonard Williams (2023), Mike Williams (2024), and Rashid Shaheed and Dre’Mont Jones (2025).

If Cousins and Love throw for the same total yardage over their other remaining games, 278 yards in that extra start would pull Cousins even. It also helps that Cousins gets to throw to Jefferson instead of throwing against Minnesota’s defense, which ranks first in passing yards allowed by a wide margin.

The nine games left
Rankings are based on passing yards allowed (1st = best, 32nd = worst):

• Packers (21st) — Away

• 49ers (6th) — Away. Cousins threw for 216 yards against them in Week 9.

• Falcons (26th) — Home

• Panthers (5th) — Home

• Patriots (31st) — Away. Cousins threw for 243 yards against them in Week 5.

• Lions (32nd) — Home

• Commanders (18th) — Home

• Jets (11th) — Away

• Bears (22nd) — Home. The NFC North title or playoff seeding could be at stake.

The 49ers and Panthers are the toughest spots on paper. The stretch I’m circling is New England followed by Detroit, the bottom two defenses in passing yards allowed. That’s where I’d look for Cousins to make up ground. And if the Chicago finale matters for the division or seeding, there’s a reason to expect him to play it.

Love is the benchmark, and Cousins still has to beat the rest of the field. At +700, I’ll take the shot on the extra start, the schedule, and a No. 1 receiver who can turn a routine completion into a chunk play.

Shout-out to Erik Kuselias for bringing this up on Wednesday’s Cashing Out. I liked it even more after digging into the schedule. +700 at Caesars was the best I found. Shop around, and if you find a better number, let your boy know!

Gill and Kelley's NFL Week 10 Survivor Considerations:

CFB Week 11 Best Bets Compilation:

Beating the Book MegaPod ft. Matt Brown (NFL Week 10):

With how bad the 1-11 Jazz are and with the loss of Markkanen for at least a month, which of these upcoming games do the Jazz win before they go to SAC on 12/27?!! They remind me of the 2024 White Sox during their 3-22 start.

@Houston

vsSan Antonio

@LA Clippers

@Los Angeles

vsPhoenix

vsDallas

@Los Angeles

vsDenver

vsPhoenix

@Golden State

@Portland

vsDenver

vsMinnesota

@Chicago

@Boston

@Cleveland

@New York

vsIndiana

@Sacramento

Loyola Marymount +1.5 @ South Alabama

I am seeing the dog as a 6-8 point favorite across all three sources. This is a strong angle play in my opinion if we are really getting into a groove.

The Angle 26/27: 4-5 (-0.5 UNITS)

Tring to find the best three? Its a lot of games

I bet LSU to win the natty in August at +2700 and have been watching them go up and down all year. They are still at +2200 at DK and still have a good shot at getting into the CFP if they beat TX this week and TN next week. Then I'll hedge the hell out of this thing. They are favored vs TX this week and at TN, so get in now if you want to ride the Lane Train!

The time difference probably means I miss a lot of the live action and conversations but looking forward to joining the community and posting some bets.

I might even be able to give some Australian Football League tips when our season starts in April if you have access and hopefully you wake up richer.

Last week, we dug into Steve Makinen's NFL analytics report looking for the strongest betting opportunities—not simply the most eye-catching historical trends, but situations where multiple rating systems and relevant betting angles pointed in the same direction.

The result: 3-0.

See last week's picks and analysis

So we're doing it again for Week 10.

We examined Steve's power ratings, Effective Strength Ratings, Bettors Ratings and situational systems to identify three potential Best Bets.

1. New England Patriots +3 vs. Detroit Lions

Three rating systems agree.

• Power Ratings: 1.5-point edge on New England.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 2.8-point edge.

• Bettors Ratings: 3.0-point edge.

New England also qualifies for a situational system involving teams that have lost four straight against the spread facing a non-conference opponent. Those teams have gone 34-20-2 ATS (63%).

Why we like it: The agreement across all three ratings is the strongest argument, particularly with Circa offering the key number of +3.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers–Cincinnati Bengals Under 50

Two separate ratings models project a lower-scoring game.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 46.6 points.

• Bettors Ratings: 45.8 points.

That translates into model discrepancies of 3.4 and 4.2 points, respectively.

There's also a supporting situational system: road teams coming off a bye have produced a 49-29-1 Under record (62.8%) since 2021.

Why we like it: Both numerical projections point in the same direction, with the market total above each estimate.

3. Carolina Panthers +2.5 at New Orleans Saints

Another unanimous decision from the three rating systems.

• Power Ratings: 1.5-point edge on Carolina.

• Effective Strength Ratings: 2.3-point edge.

• Bettors Ratings: 4.1-point edge.

New Orleans also qualifies for a system fading home favorites with season-long scoring differentials of minus seven points per game or worse. Those teams are 49-76-3 ATS (39.2%) since 2016.

Why we like it: Three-model agreement, supported by a situational system that questions whether New Orleans deserves to be favored.

Steve Makinen's NFL Week 10 Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends

These are our independent selections based on Steve's analytics, not necessarily Steve's own Best Bets. All lines are from Circa Sports on Wednesday evening.

Can we keep it going? Which of these three plays do you like best?

I consider myself a new bettor even though I’ve been doing it for few years. My question is, if I can’t or don’t know how to set my own lines, do I stand a chance at winning? Is just reading line movement and being contrarian enough to win? I just do this for fun but tired of losing. Any advice on what to look for to become better is much appreciated.

Something to lock away for the future , military schools go 3-0 on Veterans Day. Thank you to all the veterans out there for your service!

Air Force defeats Loyola Chicago 107 -93

Navy defeats Penn 81-76

VMI defeats North Carolina Central 65-51

Any tips or suggestions on wagering NBA games when factoring in load management? As a busy dad, it’s hard to keep up with who is playing and who is not. Perhaps I should avoid it altogether but figured I would toss it out there. Thanks everyone and have a great hump day. 🐫

A few tickets I’ve played over the last couple of weeks:

Super Bowl exactas

• Bears over Jaguars (+3500)

• Jaguars over Bears (+4000)

Both teams are bolstering their rosters for a deep playoff push, and both have offensive coaches who play the way I play Madden: more points, please and thank you.

That mentality is a big part of why I like the matchup. Both teams want to keep scoring even when they have the lead. At these prices, I’m more interested in betting on both teams getting there than in deciding now who wins it. The two exactas cover either winner if Chicago and Jacksonville meet in the Super Bowl.

Bears to win the NFC + Sixers to win the East (+3012)

This is a separate ticket built around the same Chicago read. I played it after the Simmons trade and before Bears–Seahawks on Monday night, its currently +2150 on BetMGM but shop around and you might be able to find a better price.

Update: I found the Bears/Sixers at +2394 on FanDuel if you’re in one of those states that has that.

Since Aaron Schatz did his mid-season update on ANG this morning.......

I know DVOA is a moving target for the first few weeks of the season, but taking today's bottom five D's for DVOA against the run heading into week 10 and looking back to the start of the season, #1 RB's are 28-11 (72% win rate) on props to score 1 TD against those D's. This weekend's menu:

CMC vs #28 DAL (-334)

Tuten vs #29 TEN (-167)

Chuba vs #30 NO (-167)

Gordon vs #31 IND (+110)

Charbonnet vs #32 LV (+110)

Not a bad list of talent - Gordon gives me pause, but Charbonnet against the bottom run D by DVOA looks like value here to me. I think the line reflects Hawks inability to score on the ground with Price this season, but Charbonnet is just back from injury and ready to roll. I'll play it now before the line moves. CMC has a TD in every game since week 2. Maybe a CMC/Charbonnet TD prop parlay at +173 seems interesting? LOL pizza money 5 prop parlay........+1365.......naaaah 🤣

I'm going to go live to talk about the NBA slate in about 20 minutes over on YouTube. If you have some time, hop in and join me. Feel free to fire away with questions.

I posted a bunch of plays to VSiN.com earlier, but I have a few new ones I'm giving out on the show!

https://www.youtube.com/@HardwoodHandicappers

Temple +1.5 vs. Charleston
Sam Houston St +1.5 vs. Pepperdine
Sam Houston St +3.5 vs. Pepperdine
American +1.5 @ Drexel

Added more to the SHSU bet with some wild line movement overnight, doesn't appear to be any injury or lineup news to follow up with that.

Green Bay vs Kansas City. A replay of Super Bowl II. The Packers are starting to put it together. Sunday at Lambeau Field vs the Vikings is a test the need to pass. Hopefully the O Line comes to play. Jordan Love has been pretty solid all year. Go Pack Go

Just know every year some team comes out of nowhere and makes the SB. I don’t think anyone had the Pats last year. If you bet futures, look for value. The AFC is wide open, that’s probably the most target rich environment. Of course if y’all are on this chat you knew that already. I kinda like one of these teams to get hot and make a run: Ravens, Raiders, Jets (I know - I’m delusional) but they keep losing very close games (Chiefs game withstanding). If they pick off the Bills this week that might be a match to the fuse

Why are these forums so dead?

At the halfway point of the NFL season, we asked VSiN Daily readers a simple question:

If you had one bet to win the Super Bowl, who would it be?

We offered five contenders at their Circa odds, plus “None of the above.”

535 readers voted. And it was close.

• 49ers (+600): 121 votes (22.6%)

• Jaguars (+850): 114 (21.3%)

• None of the above: 112 (20.9%)

• Bills (+550): 89 (16.6%)

• Bears (+650): 67 (12.5%)

• Chiefs (+900): 32 (6.0%)

The 49ers won the vote, but Jacksonville might be the more interesting story.

The Jaguars were just seven votes behind San Francisco, and several readers specifically cited their trade deadline acquisitions.

One Jacksonville supporter wrote:

"Jaguars are loaded. Offense, Defense and Coaching."

Another pointed to the Jessie Bates acquisition and Trevor Lawrence's play.

But what about the teams we left off the ballot?

More than one in five readers chose “None of the above.”

Cincinnati, Green Bay and Denver were recurring write-in favorites. Several readers argued that this season is unusually wide open.

One reader summed it up:

"There is no great team, and as wide open as it has been in years."

And the Chiefs?

Despite their championship pedigree, Kansas City received just 32 votes — 6% of the total.

Now we'd like to hear more from you:

Did we leave out the eventual champion? Are the Jaguars legitimate contenders after their deadline moves? Or are the 49ers the team to beat?

Tell us in the comments.

You know he’ll be busting his ass tonight against the Celtics. Rebounds is a hustle stat, so I’m taking his over seven even money.