Apparently the New York judges view kicking a dude in the balls over and over as proper winning technique. But seriously, had a 3 fighter underdog parley. Those judges cost me green American money dollars.
Fanatics voided him on my ticket
The is a good situation to bet Dallas +4 and ML. This is a do or die situation for Dallas if they want to make the playoffs or win the division. A loss would be a setback. At home against an overrated 49ers team that has more injuries than a mash unit.
Posted plays 1-0.
Every week, we publish the Circa Million consensus picks from thousands of contestants.
But what if we looked only at the entries that have been winning?
For Week 10, we isolated the selections of the top 41 entries in the standings after Week 9. That's just 0.7% of the 5,790-entry field.
Why 41?
There are 24 entries ahead of 25th place, with 17 more tied for 25th. We included everyone at that cutoff rather than arbitrarily excluding tied contestants.
And the leaders have some very different ideas from the full field.
The Rams -9.5 lead the way, appearing on 15 of 41 cards (36.6%).
The Falcons +3.5, Jets +7.5 and Steelers +3.5 follow with 13 selections apiece (31.7%).
The Titans +10.5 and Panthers +2.5 tie for fifth with 11 each (26.8%), so we're showing six teams.
Across the 5,708 entries that submitted picks, the 49ers -4 and Lions -3 were the two most popular selections.
Neither makes the leaders' top six.
The Rams, meanwhile, are the leaders' strongest selection but don't appear among the full field's five most popular picks.
Only the Steelers and Falcons make both groups' lists.
That's the story: The top 0.7% of the standings isn't following the same consensus as the overall field.
These are contest picks, not necessarily bets at current sportsbook prices.
For example, Falcons +3.5 was available on the contest card, while Circa's Saturday evening sportsbook line was Falcons +3. That half-point can matter.
And nine weeks of strong results don't guarantee that the leaders will keep outperforming. That's why we'll track the two groups separately.
Which consensus would you rather follow this week — the leaders or the full field?
Let us know in the comments.
I should have stayed away from this one because not a lot of circa or vsin pros were on this game at all. But Clemson was favored by 15 and lost to GA Tech 20-6 at home? Nobody had GA Tech as a dog cover either. Just curious.
GEORGIA TECH +14.5 CLEMSON
Betting System: GT is 1-8 ATS (worst in nation). Conference Road Dogs with an ATS Win percentage of 28% or less cover 57% of the time (676-570). That includes 28-13 in 2026.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech +14.5
My picks for night games
Morgan State +1.5 vs. Loyola Maryland
LATE ADDITION to The Angle, it was an extra game that slipped through when I did my checks last night. This game tips off soonest, 30 minutes from now.
The number is all over the place, dog at some spots and a favorite at others.
This now brings us to 5 total plays for The Angle today, best of luck everyone.
Last 6 Plays: 4-2 ATS 📈
The Angle: 6-7 (-0.7 UNITS)
✅ Morgan State +1.5 vs. Loyola Maryland
Late add, another winner. Hope some were able to see it in time. Track along here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TVIC90cnMvyeq8X0fxlUqGc7a7AADCD5_cn7WfzrQZA/edit?usp=sharing
I hooked the extra point on the initial request to provide M/L plays for the parlay. So, here are two for your consideration on Parlay #2:
UTSA (+105) vs N. Texas - Roadrunners on a 5 game home winning streak and 18-2 in their last 20 home games averaging 47 points/game. UTSA is 5-3 in last 8 games vs N. Texas and is 6-1 at home vs N. Texas with that 1 loss coming back in 2018.
Florida Atlantic (+180) at Tulsa - FAU brings a top-8 scoring offense (40.2 PPG) led by QB Caden Veltkamp (19 TD passes in his last 5 games; 3rd-most in FBS)into Tulsa, a team FAU beat 40-21 last season. In high game total, the Owls' passing attack gives them a chance to pull out the road win.
Mark (mah-hey-nzz) 😃
Anyone else make any plays based on the flight groundings yesterday? From what I read a few teams had to take 6 hour bus rides, while some other teams flew out very early this morning. You would think that puts the teams in a terrible travel spot.
I cant believe some sharps were on SMU. They should be relegated to NAIA. pathetic!
Miami is letting Duke hang around. I took the points but I’m wishing I had ML.
My Dawgs for today are Utep +7.5, Arkansas +7.5, and Florida +3. Sprinkling the money line on all 3.
The Arkansas look is one I was considering as well with Sellers being a game-time decision and #1 WR Nyck Harbor already ruled out. Worth a sprinkle now for sure before the final decision on Sellers. If he is out that line value drops. Also The Gamecocks could being a dangerous look ahead with Georgia and Clemson scheduled next.
Has anyone been betting this streak of his 28 straight games over 1.5 shots on goal? Im afraid to jump in and jinx it. -200 is obviously another reason to not jump in. Might be worth 1 unit to grab a half unit though. Any thoughts?
The price keeps me away
Let's have a little fun this Saturday.
Terrance McKinney vs Jim Miller is set for absolute chaos at UFC 334.
McKinney has an average fight time of 2 minutes and 28 seconds.
Jim Miller is 2nd in all time UFC finishes at 20. And at 43 years old he's been very careful of not putting himself in too much danger. Let's hope he slows the pace a bit here for us.
Normally I enjoy betting a McKinney fight to end within 60 seconds, but the odds have shortened up on that. (The books are on to us!)
So let's switch it up and play "Either Fighter in Round 2" at +340.
It's going to be a 5 minute sweat!
Enjoy the violence.
I thought McKinney missed weight
Minnesota is 6-3 ATS overall this season and 4-1 ATS as a Big Ten underdog, including 2-0 ATS when catching 9.5 or more points:
No. 6 Texas (+4.5) is a strong underdog play tonight against No. 21 LSU because the two teams enter Baton Rouge with completely opposite momentum: Texas is riding a three-game winning and cover streak with Playoff hopes alive, while LSU is reeling from a demoralizing 31–13 home loss to Alabama that historically causes Lane Kiffin teams to flatten out in November. In a low-total defensive grinder (46.5 O/U) featuring identical scoring defenses (~17.5 PPG), Texas holds the edge in fourth-quarter quarterback execution under Arch Manning (72.7% fourth-quarter completion rate) and can exploit LSU's red-zone struggles and Sam Leavitt’s turnover issues (9 INTs). While Texas's 2-8 underdog ATS record under Steve Sarkisian warrants caution on the raw moneyline, catching 4.5 points gives you cushion past the key numbers of 3 and 4 in a projected one-score battle.
Texas covers if not wins LSU is terrible against better teams
Michigan State i think wins out right
Like then today.
Arizona - Possible
I’ll be on for Live Bet Saturday from Noon-3 PM ET for the early window of CFB Week 11.
Let’s build an Underdog ML Parlay ticket together. Who is LIVE to win outright. Send your favorite options below 👇 and I’ll read them on the air!
Fresno State +285
old school
MOREHEAD ST +2.5 vs. IU Indianapolis
SANTA CLARA +1.5 vs. New Mexico
YOUNGSTOWN ST +1.5 vs. Marshall
MONTANA +1.5 @ North Dakota
These are the first four games that have popped on the slate for Saturday that are a play for "The Angle".
Three of the four teams are at home, and even one +2.5 point spread. That's the third spread of the year we're betting not at +1.5.
The Angle: 4-6 (-1.5 UNITS) [record as of this post]
THAT'S A CLEAN SWEEP FOR THE ANGLE 📐
5-0 ATS today. Every underdog won outright. Hope you tailed!
✅ Santa Clara +1.5
Last 10 Plays: 8-2 ATS (80%) 🔥🔥🔥
Last 6 Plays: 6-0 ATS
The Angle 📐: 10-7 ATS (+2.0 UNITS)
Two title fights tomorrow at UFC 334. The last two divisional title fights of 2026!
Catch Dave Ross and I, along with Reed Kuhn on this weeks First Strike.
Lock in some bets! 🍎
I'll share a small side bet here on the community page tomorrow for everyone as well. 🤫
Tune in VSiN Live Bet Saturday from 3P-6P ET as Will Hill and I watch, discuss, and Live Bet College Football as the games happen!
The Hometown Discount.
In addition to VSiN responsibilities on weekends, I host a weekday show in Lexington, Kentucky. Unlike Live Bet Saturday, the weekday show spends time focusing on the home teams from a handicapping perspective. Our station is the voice of the Cincinnati Reds and Cincinnati Bengals. But in Lexington, it’s all about the University of Kentucky.
This week, Florida is visiting Kentucky. The Cats are still in the College Football Playoff, but I’m betting Florida getting the points. Not because I’m trying to piss off the local fans, but because the Betting Markets and my Betting Systems say this is a good play. But when I said this on the radio on Monday, the BBN (Big Blue Nation, as Kentucky fans are called) came out of the woodwork as usual. “Who gave you a microphone?” “You’re not one of us!” “I’ll be waiting for you in the parking lot!” “I know where your mother lives.” I’ve heard it all. It’s a slap in the face of the BBN! Listeners have no idea how anyone can go on local radio and proclaim that he’s betting against their beloved team, even with proven data and history that explains why.
The Blind Resume’ stunt we pulled spoke volumes. A while back, we presented a Blind Resume’ to random people here in Lexington with Team A vs. Team B in a game that evening. Team records, rankings, etc. Everyone took Team A. Then we pulled the curtains back. Team A was Tennessee, and Team B was Kentucky. Everyone polled asked to change their minds and switch to Team B. No facts or numbers changed. Just the name on the front of the jersey.
People ask me all the time who my favorite team is. My answer is always the same: “Whoever I bet on that night.” Unlike many fans, I get the same amount of sleep if the local teams win or lose. Being able to bet on a team one night, and against that same team the next night, is how Sharps play. I’m playing Florida against Kentucky this weekend. I might lose, but the best Sports Handicappers aren’t influenced by emotions or fandom. They’re influenced by the best process to cash tickets.
These are my Best Bets for this week. Betting Lines/Splits courtesy of Circa, and our Systems go back to 2005.
FLORIDA +3 KENTUCKY
Line Move: Kentucky was –3.5 on Thursday
Betting Splits: Majority of tickets and money on Kentucky
Betting System: Fading Home Favorites in Conference Games that scored less than 20 points in their previous game hits 55% of the time (1,116-964). That includes 38-27 in 2026
Best Bet: Florida +3
TEXAS A&M +2.5 TENNESSEE
Line Move: Tennessee was –3 on Monday.
Betting Splits: Huge majority of tickets and money on Tennessee.
Best Bet: Texas A&M +2.5
MICHIGAN +10.5 OREGON
Line Move: Oregon was –12.5 on Monday.
Betting System: Conference Road Dogs in the Big Ten with an average ATS Margin of -2.00 or worse for the season cover 61% of the time (115-77). That includes a crazy 14-2 ATS record in 2026.
Best Bet: Michigan +10.5
MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 AUBURN
Line Move: Auburn was –4.5 on Monday.
Betting Splits: Huge majority of tickets and money on Auburn
Best Bet: Mississippi State +2.5
GEORGIA TECH +14.5 CLEMSON
Betting System: GT is 1-8 ATS (worst in nation). Conference Road Dogs with an ATS Win percentage of 28% or less cover 57% of the time (676-570). That includes 28-13 in 2026.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech +14.5
KANSAS +11.5 TCU
Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing teams on a 1-2 game losing streak cover 54% of the time (1.065-929). That includes 44-30 in 2026.
Best Bet: Kansas +11.5
ARIZONA STATE +3 CENTRAL FLORIDA
Line Move: Central Florida was –3.5 on Wednesday.
Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on Central Florida
Betting System: Conference Road Dogs facing teams with a –1 or worse average scoring margin on the season cover 56% of the time (829-676)
Best Bet: Arizona State +3
NORTH CAROLINA STATE +3 SYRACUSE
Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on Syracuse
Best Bet: North Carolina State +3
BOSTON COLLEGE/NOTRE DAME TOTAL 52.5
Line Move: Total was 53.5 on Monday.
Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on the Over.
Best Bet: Boston College/Notre Dame Under 52.5
ALABAMA/VANDERBILT TOTAL 49.5
Line Move: Total was 54.5 on Monday.
Betting Splits: A majoruty of tickets and money are on the Over
Best Bet: Alabama/Vanderbilt Under 49.5
LOUISVILLE/NORTH CAROLINA TOTAL 57.5
Line Move: Total was 61.5 on Monday.
Best Bet: Louisville/North Carolina Under 57.5
CINCINNATI/IOWA STATE TOTAL 58.5
Line Move: Total was 61.5 on Monday.
Betting System: Cincinnati is 6-3 to the Over this year. In Conference Games, when the Home Team is favored, but the Road Team is going Over the Total in 62% of more of their games, the Under hits 55% of the time. That includes 41-31 in 2026.
Best Bet: Cincinnati/Iowa State Under 58.5
ARIZONA STATE/CENTRAL FLORIDA TOTAL 48.5
Line Move: Total was 51.5 on Monday.
Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on the Over.
Betting System: Conference Games when the Home Team is favored, and the Road Team won their previous game, cover 54% of the time (1,511-1,347)
Best Bet: Arizona State/Central Florida Under 48.5
SYRACUSE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE TOTAL 53.5
Line Move: Total was 56.5 on Monday
Betting Splits: A majority of tickets and money are on Over.
Best Bet: Syracuse/North Carolina Under 53.5
WEATHER UNDERS
All of the following games have the same 3 qualities: The Total has dropped during this week, more money is on the Over, and winds are more than 10 MPH. When that happens, Unders hit 55% of the time (1,646-1,402). 3 games that fit the criteria:
Best Bets: Wisconsin/Maryland Under 42.5, Kansas State/TCU Under 44.5, Minnesota/Penn State Under 42.5
Good luck to everyone this week!
Very nice interesting angles you have! I can tell you understand line movements, public perception and you do your homework! ... i will tail along some of these games for sure! GL~!
Tennessee State visits Knoxville tonight to take on the Vols. They bring with them the number 1 fastest rate of play in the young season according to covers.com. Both teams are a combined 0-3 to the under so far but I think that changes tonight on Friday the 13th in Knoxville. The o/u is set at 157 1/2 which is probably about right. But I like Tennessee's team total of 92 1/2 over. There should be a alot Tennessee dunks and layups. When Tennessee scores 100 points tonight they will be handing out free Chick Fil A sandwiches or whatever they give away to the students.
Play Tennessee team total over 92 1/2
Everything goes over except Tennessee team total, urg!
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