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Apr 21, 2025
A Number’s Game | April 21,2025 | Hour 1
A Number’s Game | April 21,2025 | Hour 1
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44:49
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Transcript
0:02
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:11
There's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, K Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
To my left, everybody, Wyatt Tomchek, in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. There you go, Wyatt. Very nice. I feel like I need to aggressively type as we're coming into the show. 'Cause that's Kelly's thing?
0:33
I just don't know what to do with my hands, so I'm like, I just feel like that's Kelly's thing of just like- Let's just keep them so I can see where they are. [laughs] That'd be my answer to that.
0:40
Uh, Wyatt Tomchek with a review of WrestleMania 41 momentarily, ladies and gentlemen, because, uh, that was the, uh, agreement I made of Wyatt was gonna be here this week. He got to talk WrestleMania 41.
0:50
So, uh, fresh off two, uh, appearances there, we will get to, uh, his review here momentarily. On the show today, Carl Sack from killersports.com. Killer Sports, uh, and Killer, uh, what else is it?
1:03
Killer Sports, and there's Killer- Is it Killer Cappers? Killer Cappers. It's all the Killer stuff. Yeah.
1:08
He's also, of course, the, uh, the brainchild, it was his brainchild, to do the NBA contest that we're doing, the NBA Killer Sports Challenge, which in the early going, Steve Fezzik has gone out to an early lead.
1:21
It's not a, it's not a big news headline yet because no one's made the same amount of bets. You have to get 20 bets in, uh, in the first round of the playoffs.
1:29
Everybody's staggered, but five-and-one start for old Fezzik. How many- He's the leader in the clubhouse right now... how many texts did he send you over the weekend? No, he wasn't bragging about it. Oh, interesting.
1:36
He knows it's early. Interesting. Okay. Okay. He knows. He's just a, a Hall of Fame contest player. He's like, he's like the leader of round one at the Masters. It's nothing special. Yeah, nothing special right now.
1:44
Okay, okay. Um, it's, it's not even the first round, right? Yeah. It's, uh, it's, you know, very early stages of the first round. So we'll, we'll talk to Carl about the NBA playoffs.
1:51
He'll give my little two-and-a-half minute review of the NBA playoffs here momentarily thus far. Paul Spohrer on baseball. We have adjusted season wins. We have awards, including manager of the year.
2:01
We'll see if he has anything to say about that. That is available at a spot like FanDuel. Um, Advocate Skirmish, as we used to call it here on the show.
2:09
Wes Reynolds, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. He was on Justin Thomas this weekend at the RBC. Uh, Justin Thomas breaking a, uh, 20, what was it?
2:19
A 58 event, three years anyway, but I believe it's a 58 event drought. He wins his 16th PGA title, uh, sinking a 21-foot putt on the first playoff hole.
2:31
Andrew Novak was his, uh, competitor there, and Justin Thomas gets it done. Congratulations not only to Wes, but also to our own Kelly Bidlin in absentia today.
2:42
Kelly Bidlin, I hope you, I hope you, uh, tailed Kelly on this. Uh, not only did he have Justin Thomas at 24 to one, Wyatt, but he also had, it was a huge tourney for him. He had Daniel Berger top five, seven to one.
2:55
He had, uh, and I think his biggest bet was on Russell Henley top 10 at, uh, plus 150, and then he had Sepp Straka top 20. All of them get home for Kelly.
3:04
Is there a better spot to w- know that you won a ton of money and now you're in Turks and Caicos? Like- The answer is no. There is not a better spot.
3:12
He's doing it while watching, while looking out into light blue waters. I've seen a couple of his pictures, and I was like, it's a well-deserved vacation for Kelly, but I'm very, uh, jealous right now.
3:20
Oh, I'm, I'm stupid jealous of it. [laughs] And then later on in the show, by the way, not to be outdone, uh, Andy Molator will join us.
3:25
I sa- I mention Andy's name every week on the show when Drew, when we have Drew Dincic on, because Drew does the Deep Dive podcast with his buddy Andy Molator. We, we don't have Andy on all that often, but today we do.
3:36
We wanna talk NFL draft, 'cause I think he and Drew did a great job last week on their podcast sort of headlining how they feel about the draft, at least as of last Thursday.
3:46
We'll see how he feels about if it's the same this Monday morning, what he knows, what he doesn't know, what he's bet, what he's looking to bet.
3:52
Because even in a draft where we don't know much, if that is still the opinion, there is a way perhaps to exploit this better than others, so we'll talk to Andy about that.
4:01
Uh, the NBA playoffs, before we get to, uh, Wyatt's WrestleMania 41, which I know is the headliner here. Uh, the NBA playoffs in two and a half minutes or less.
4:08
Um, all the game ones being played in all the respective series, and we'll just do them in chronological order. Uh, Indiana with a one-nothing lead over Milwaukee.
4:16
This, this, by the way, the first eight games, there was one game of the eight that the l- that mattered in the last two minutes of the game and beyond. Um, obviously, that was Denver and the Clippers.
4:27
The rest of these, well, some of them flirted with competitiveness, others did not. The w- the first one did not. Indi- Indiana beat your Milwaukee Bucks. Can I call them your Milwaukee Bucks, Wyatt?
4:36
Yep, that's, uh, me, Ben Wilson, Nick Whalen's Milwaukee Bucks, and, uh, yeah. All y'all. That's about 20 minutes into the game. I was like, "This is exactly how it was last year." Uh, but- No defense.
4:46
Can't hit a shot to save their life. But you don't have Dame yet, so you know, there's that to- Da- Dame did get a technical foul [laughs] during the game. Yeah.
4:52
Well, Dame, Dame's supposed to come back from the deep th- uh, vein thrombosis. Pacers led by 24 at the half. They win by 19. Coasted 117-98. Siakam with 25. Then the only competitive one in the final moments.
5:03
Denver takes a one to nothing, uh, series lead over the Clippers, best of seven. I know we have a lot of NBA hardos who are all over the Clippers.
5:10
I'm not sure this did anything to dissuade them from their position, as the Nuggets and Clippers have game two tonight. Two games in the association tonight.
5:17
Game two of both the Knicks-Pistons and Nuggets-Clippers series. But this was the one where the, where the Clippers led by 15 in the second quarter, 51 to 36. Nuggets closed the half on a 13 to two run, cut it to four.
5:29
Eventually tied it after many tries at tying it at 81, and then it was the Westbrook show, uh, put back to put the Nuggets up for the first time, late 93-92. Then a layup to put them back up 95-94.
5:42
Then down 96-95 in the final 30 seconds. He hits a corner three, does Russell Westbrook. Um, pass from Jokic. Nuggets go up two.
5:49
Harden with the layup in the closing seconds, and then Denver doesn't even get a shot off at the end of regulation. We go to overtime.
5:56
A Christian Brown three put the Nuggets up four with just under a minute left, and then Westbrook with the big steal, knocking it off Harden. That was what really put it away.
6:06
But as far as the spread is concerned, and for those of us who had the Nuggets, I was doing a contrarian play in the, uh, challenge. I had the Nuggets minus the points.
6:14
A Norm Powell Three that didn't matter to the final score, but mattered to the spread, sunk my bet. So the Clippers get the money even though they don't win the game, and that's how, uh, game one was.
6:25
Kawhi sort of fading down the stretch. Just four points in the final 7:45 of regulation and overtime combined. Seven turnovers from him in that stretch.
6:35
20 turnovers in total for the Clippers, um, despite Harden scoring 32, Kawhi with 22, Zubac with 21. By the way, Kawhi with seven total turnovers, not during that stretch. Jokic, 29, 9 and 12. Gordon, 25 and 8.
6:48
Murray, 21, 9 and 7. And even Westbrook with those 15 for the Nuggets in victory. Then it was the Knicks over the Pistons.
6:55
That was a game where, again, game two is tonight, but the Pistons were up eight late, late meaning fourth quarter, and then a 21 to nothing Knicks run. 21 to nothing.
7:07
What was the last time there was a playoff run of 21 to nothing? I have no idea, but that was just unbelievable.
7:12
The stage looked a little too big for the Pistons, and it was a really strange ending as well because the, the Pistons did get it back down to six with a bit, with 1:23 left, but they couldn't have played it worse from there.
7:24
Ausar Thompson immediately committing a foul, and then the Knicks just sort of cruised. Didn't feel like the Pistons thought they had a chance. Very strange ending to that game, uh, after the 21 to nothing run.
7:35
Brunson with 34 in victory. Uh, Minnesota then in maybe the surprise blowout of the weekend. Minnesota blows out the Lakers to take a one to nothing lead.
7:43
The Lakers were up seven after the first quarter, then the T-Wolves outscored them 38 to 20 in the second to go up 11. They scored the first 11 points of the second half, and it was kind of Katie bar the door from there.
7:55
So that's a one-nothing series. Again, we'll get to all these with Carl, which he was most surprised by.
7:59
By the way, the reason I go through this, teams that take a one to nothing lead in the NBA playoff series, of all of them, they go on to win the series 77.8% of the time. Just attaching a number to it.
8:12
And then yesterday, OKC over Memphis by 51 in a game that they led as many, by as many as 56. The question was, how much would they adjust the line? Not much. A point, a point and a half.
8:24
Boston then after trailing the Magic by one at halftime yesterday, they run out. Were already up double digits four and a half minutes into the third quarter. Go on to win by 17.
8:34
Cleveland wins by 21 over the Heat in a game where it was a seven-point game with under eight minutes to play. Just ran them out, 28-12 down the stretch.
8:42
And then the Warriors-Rockets, for those who missed it yesterday, um, interesting game. Warriors got up to a 23-point lead.
8:49
Rockets got it all the way back down to three, and then the Dubs just sort of closed it out late, ending up winning by double digits. So by the way, that was a game where neither team got to 100.
8:58
The stat on TNT inside the NBA last night, uh, 30, only 30 of 1,230 regular season games this year featured teams, uh, w- featured, featured where both teams, games where both teams did not get to 100 points.
9:12
So that's the first of the postseason. So that was a rare thing. But we'll, we'll talk to Carl about all that. But now, ladies and gentlemen, WrestleMania 41 with Wyatt Tomchek. You went both nights.
9:23
Do we have a picture? Did you put the picture up? No, I didn't do any pictures. All right, put that up later if you could. I could, yeah. It's amazing.
9:28
I, I was bombarding Gil with a bunch of text messages, and Gil, I can't repeat him on air, but he's just like, "Wow, this is a, it's a bunch of..." I don't, I don't...
9:35
He just, as he said, "I don't get the, I just don't get it." I just don't get it. It's me. It's not you, it's me.
9:40
I will say if, uh, if you ever wanna go to a wrestling event and do people watching, it's, it's, you, you'd have a blast. Oh, I'm sure. I'm sure. But, but it was, it was, it was so much fun.
9:49
Just the experience to go to what is the most important wrestling show in all of America is w- was something that I will remember for the rest of my life. Uh, get to see some, some pretty good matches.
10:02
Uh, night one was so-so. Uh, night two was a lot better. I did get to see Stone Cold, but not in the capacity that I thought it was gonna be. Meaning what?
10:10
I thought he was gonna come out and, uh, interfere in the, uh, the title match between Cody Rhodes and John Cena. He came out to just announce, uh, the attendance. He, uh- Ah... he had a little bit of trouble.
10:19
He, uh, he missed the ramp to go up. He drove an ATV. He missed the ramp, so you had a bunch of people trying to- [laughs]... back it up. And then he's going around the ring and he hit the barricade.
10:30
He knocked a fan over, and the fan, uh, it, it felt like Saquon Barkley, like, trucked her. She was so upset. She goes, "What are you doing?"
10:37
And at the end of it, you could see the president of the WWE trying to talk to her. He's like, "Please don't sue us." And this was real? Yeah, he didn't mean to crash the ATV- Okay... at this height.
10:46
So, and John Cena wins the title? John Cena wins the title. He wins his 17th title, breaking the, uh, record with Ric Flair, his final WrestleMania. Uh, just kind of cements himself as probably the GOAT of WWE.
10:59
And you say you will remember this for the rest of your life? Oh, it was a lot of fun. It, me and, me and a buddy went. Uh, I had a couple moments where I jumped out of the seat and then was cheering very loud. Yeah.
11:09
One of them being Joe Hendry was a surprise, uh, um- Oh, sure. Joe Hendry. Yeah, you- Yeah... if you say his name, he will appear. Well, he did appear- Oh... at WrestleMania. So it was, that was, that kind of a big pop.
11:19
Do you have a studio? I just said his name. Is he here? He, maybe he's in Vegas. No. You know, but- Yeah... wh- I just, I, I adm- I'm, I wish there was a third night, 'cause I w- I w- You wish there was a third night?
11:28
I wish there was a third, fourth. It, it was just, I can't say it enough. It was a ton of fun. Wow. You are, you are, you love this stuff. Logan Paul won? Logan Paul did win.
11:36
That was, uh, got a lot of boos, but I think he's the right call. Yeah. Okay. Hope it w- it, it was everything it was cracked up to be? Maybe not night, no. Maybe not night number one.
11:44
Uh, night one was eh, but night two definitely saved it. Wyatt Tomchek, WrestleMania 41. I'm sure Wes will have thoughts later as well. Coming back.
11:52
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:07
The NBA playoffs are here, and so is the VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge.
12:12
We've invited 15 sharp minds from the world of VSiN and Killer Sports to go head-to-head, making 38 picks each from the start of the playoffs all the way through the NBA Finals. We did the math for you.
12:21
That's a total of 570 NBA playoff picks, all available to VSiN Pro subscribers. Picks are locked in one hour before the first game each day, so you'll have fresh insights to guide your bets every step of the postseason.
12:33
And right now, you can get full VSiN Pro access through August 1st for just $59. Don't miss this playoff edge. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
12:43
And as I mentioned earlier, Steve Fezzik Uh, jumping out to the early, early lead in this with a, uh, five and one record.
12:50
Alex Christensen at four and one, followed by Kyle Aikens at three and O, JVT three and one, 'cause he got the Norm Powell shot to go. Carl Sack himself at three and one. Carl Sack trying to win his own contest here.
13:03
Uh, and Scott Rakel at three and three as well. They are in the lead early. Fe- look at Fezick, five and one, doing his thing. Uh, we have Carl Sack here momentarily. We got tweets at Beating The Book.
13:14
Uh, wanna get to some of these first real quick. Dan Groeschel. Dan Groeschel, uh, "Kelly takes a vacation to Turks and Caicos. Last week I was on, quote-unquote, 'vacation' with the kids at Disney World.
13:25
I'm only a lot jealous of his vacation." Me too, Dan. Michael Harrison, "Gil, after seeing the NBA and NHL scores this weekend, are the haves and have-nots becoming more of a thing?
13:34
Since the college football playoff, it seems that favorites are just blowing away their opponents at a very high rate across all major sports."
13:40
Well, Michael, that's why I go through it real briefly at the top here, because it was largely a kinda ho-hum, uh, first weekend in the N- in the NBA playoffs.
13:49
Though, though I'm sure there are gonna be those that, uh, you know, take away from it. Well, one, the Timberwolves-Lakers blowout wasn't necessarily what they saw coming.
13:58
And also in games like the Pistons-Knicks and, uh, obviously the Warriors-Rockets, maybe there would've been a different outcome had things sort of gone differently at the very end.
14:08
Uh, but really the only one competitive, Clippers-Nuggets at the end, and, uh, we'll get Carl's thoughts here on that momentarily. Um, Last Name Nash, "We better get an opening [laughs] segment recap of WrestleMania.
14:18
Wyatt has more to say." He's gonna, uh, say more in a bit. Uh, Ryan Hyatt, "Dear Gil, what part of Florida in absentia is, uh, Kelly under? A hurricane watch there? I'll hang up and listen." Yeah, I'm not sure.
14:28
I hope everything's okay. Usually has bad inclement weather, uh, wherever he goes on vacation. And Mike Rouse, "Are we going to discuss the NBA award finalists, especially Defensive Player of the Year?"
14:37
Yes, we must, as we bring in Carl Sack from Killer Sports at killerscappers.com, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Uh, Carl, I just wanna, I'm just gonna read these.
14:46
So MVP, Giannis is a finalist along with SGA and Nikola Jokic. You would expect that. Uh, Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle with, uh, Zachary Risacher and Jalen Wells. Okay.
14:59
Sixth Man, Peyton Pritchard is in there with Malik Beasley and Ty Jerome. Ty Jerome, by the way, going off, assisting or scoring the first 24 points of the, uh, fourth quarter for the, uh, Cavs yesterday.
15:10
But the real shocker, as Mike Rouse alludes to, is Defensive Player of the Year. I don't know if it's a shocker, but it is the one that raises eyebrows for those of us who bet.
15:17
Draymond, Evan Mobley, Dyson Daniels, no sign of Dort or SGA from OKC. Are you a little surprised by that at all? I know you're not an awards guy necessarily. Yeah, I'm, I'm not.
15:33
Um, I mean, there's so many guys that I feel like... Th- there's a lot of guys that you could really make the argument for. I mean, um, even Jrue Holiday's a lockdown defender.
15:44
Um, and the Celtics were one of the top defensive teams this year. So I, [sighs] yeah, no, I, I haven't dug into this, uh, to this category very much.
15:54
I, off the top of my head, I'd, I'd probably lean towards Mobley, actually. But, um, yeah, I don't know. Yeah, Coach of the Year, Atkinson, Bickerstaff, Udoka, no surprise there.
16:05
Most Improved, Cade Cunningham, along with Dyson Daniels and, uh, Zubac. And Clutch, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Wa- Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokic. No Trae Young on that list for Clutch Player of the Year.
16:15
That might surprise some folks. Uh, okay, what surpri- uh, you had a good weekend, I know, betting-wise. The Lakers' first half was the only thing that didn't come home for you. Everything else did, as I recall.
16:27
Um, is that the one? Is that the answer to the question of what surprised you the most, the Lakers being so listless? Yeah, definitely.
16:33
Um, they s- they started off, they played a good first, eh, 10 minutes of that game, but the second quarter really went south and, uh, continued to go for the rest of the game.
16:43
It w- it was a, you know, it's one of those things, though, I'm not sure if you saw this in your underlying numbers at all, that the Lakers, it, towards the, you know, when they had that h- tremendous stretch towards the end of the regular season, they really were kind of the beneficiaries of, of some good three-point luck on the other side.
17:02
Were you, did you notice that as well, that maybe that regression was bound to happen at some point? Who knew that it would happen in game one with the T-Wolves? Um, but did you see that, uh, when you were analyzing it?
17:13
Yeah. Yeah, I think, uh, JVT actually pointed that out, um, on his show, uh, maybe, uh, three, four weeks ago. Um, it's a good observation by him. T-Wolves shot- Yeah...
17:23
50% from behind the arc, set a playoff franchise record with 21 made three-pointers in that game. So eventually, um, eventually the, uh, their opponent was going to, uh, go off, and that's what happened on, uh, Saturday.
17:37
Let me ask you this. OKC beats Memphis by 51. Obviously no one, no one saw a 51-point win coming, led by as many as 56. But the spread in game one was 13, if I'm not mistaken, um, consensus.
17:53
And you ask yourself, or at least I did, okay, if they win by 51, what's the, what's the adjustment on a game two spread to something like that? Not from your perspective, but what, what the, what's the market gonna do?
18:04
And the answer is about a point and a half, two points. Was there anything you saw in that game or anything in your analysis that would tell me not to bet a sweep here? Uh, no. [laughs] No, I, I would, uh...
18:22
I think that's the most likely scenario at this point, certainly. And is that adjustment nearly enough? Like, is this just gonna get bet up between now and tip-off for game two? I think it is. I, I th- I,
18:35
I am eyeing betting OKC in game two. Um, oftentimes you get, uh, teams to make adjustments and bounce back in game two, but I think that that Happens more often in series w- that are potentially going to be competitive.
18:52
Um, you know, like the Clippers game tonight, I would expect them to make some adjustments that are tangible.
18:58
Um, in this match up I just have it so far off, you know, especially with Wells being out, Brandon Clark being hurt earlier in the year, uh, the way Memphis has been trending, um, the differential in rest.
19:11
Uh, there's just so many things coming into this, this series that I, I, I don't think that this line is gonna close any lower than 14 and a half.
19:22
Yeah, I mean, that was my, that was my immediate reaction, was for those of us who had OKC minus the points, I know you did, um, if you had them in game one, what would ever prevent you from playing them auto again here game two with, with very little of an adjustment?
19:37
And you've just confirmed that for me right now. I, I just... Even if you didn't have them, why wouldn't you jump in? There, there's really... It was an unbelievable sort of, uh, display of dominance in that game.
19:46
And SGA didn't even play that great right on top of it to, to add to that. It wasn't really a, a great performance by him, uh, relatively speaking.
19:54
Uh, about tonight though, let's start with the Clippers and the Nuggets, which is the marquee match-up of the two games tonight. Um, you did not have a play in game one.
20:03
This has shifted from the Nuggets being a short favorite to now the Clippers being a short favorite, despite the fact that Denver did win game one in overtime.
20:11
Is there a play for you on the side or is this still a stay away?
20:16
It's tough because this, this line closed, m- uh, Denver by two and a half in game one, and now you're looking at Clippers by one and a half, so it's a four-point shift.
20:24
And I, I would lean towards the Clippers playing better than they did last game, um, but with that much of a move it's, it's hard to, to back them. It would be Clippers or pass for me.
20:36
Um, as a Nuggets fan, that, that was such a great game to watch and, um, I don't know if I can watch six or seven, six, five or six more of those games. Man, what a, what a great game. What...
20:49
I mean, I, I mentioned a couple things about game one, and I guess maybe this is part of it, which is, is, is this likely to happen again? Is it likely for the Clippers to have 20 turnovers?
20:58
Is it likely for Kawhi to only score four points in the final seven 45? He had seven turnovers himself. Um, is it likely that they won't be able to maintain a 15-point lead again if they got up that high?
21:10
So I guess it's a bunch of those things. Yeah. No, I, I don't think any of those things are necessarily likely. Um, I would like to think that Denver makes some adjustments as well though. You know?
21:22
Like, it just seemed like so many times Westbrook i- i- is, is pushing the ball when he's down. Like, he's, he's on a breakaway and he's one on three, two on four, pushing the ball to the rim. [laughs] Yeah.
21:35
Um, you know, Adelman mentioned it, uh, or, or, uh, after the game and, um, gosh, I hope that he's, uh, conscious enough to, to not do that. [laughs] But we'll see. You know, that's kind of Westbrook. You know?
21:49
He's just got one motor. He's got one motor. The, the decision-making is often not good, and yet he had huge plays in game one. Uh, anything with the Knicks and Pistons? I know you didn't have anything in game one.
21:59
Anything on this one? Right around the same spread of six here. Um, I would look at the... I, I, I'm waiting on the Isaiah Stewart injury.
22:08
You know, things really changed in that game in the fourth quarter, um, when he, he got hurt early in the fourth I believe it was, and, um, he's a really good defensive player. And that game totally turned when he left.
22:21
And so I'm gonna keep an eye out on that injury. I think if he's out, maybe over is the way to go here. Maybe over. 220 and a half, by the way, spread. We're showing six and a half I should say.
22:33
220 and a half on the spread right now, so Carl monitoring that through the day, staying off the Clippers and the Nuggets for now. Carl, thank you, appreciate it, man, and thanks for doing this contest. We love it.
22:46
Oh, I'm having a great time. Thanks for being a part of it. Vsiz.com/challenge, uh, also for anybody who wants to follow along the standings. Baseball with Paul Spohn next right here on the Numbers Game.
22:55
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
Sharpplays.com, unmatched transparency with, with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to check it out. Sharpplays.com.
23:21
Let's get Alexander. Wyatt Tomchek in for, uh, the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets admitting the book, always appreciate it. Primetimecowboys_cubs1, "Yo." Hey, man.
23:30
I was with you on the Nuggets minus two and a half. Followed that beauty up by having Damon, uh, in crowds bogeyed last three holes to lose by one, and had Scotty T5 l- joining McNeill and Harmon as losers in golf.
23:43
Gambling is fun. Hopefully Paul Molitor's twin, Andy Molitor, won. We'll find out a little later when we talk NFL draft with him. And then, uh, Scott NewYorkMess16 says, "No thoughts to Wyatt on Rollins-Heyman?
23:55
Would have loved to have hear what, uh, Gil thought if you mentioned the return of the man who is a woman, LOL." [laughs] So there's that.
24:02
And then we get, uh, oh, LosVegas514, "Yo, young Wyatt, enjoy your memories of WrestleMania because when you get to Gil's and I, [laughs] and my age, you're gonna be like, 'What the hell was I thinking?'"
24:11
[laughs] Which is, uh, which is consistent with some of the texts we get. Uh, Lou Finaccaro, uh, talking about my talk with you earlier, he goes, "Some of your most delicate and def interviewing ever, Gil."
24:21
[laughs] I know. And Dave Ross, who hosts By the Books just before us, along with Jensen Lewis here on the network, he says- We all love Dave...
24:27
he says, "You dead panning and being apopleki- a- apoplectic about why it's ex- why the experience of, uh, WrestleMania was hysterical." Yeah, I've... Wyatt could be making up names for all I know. I have no idea.
24:38
Well, y- y- then, like, to go back to the tweet, I just didn't have enough time to talk about the, the Rollins, Reigns, and Punk match, which was, I thought, probably the best match of the entire card.
24:48
And I called the screwjob that happened, so I felt very proud of myself. What's the screwjob that happened? Uh, Paul Heyman, uh, decided to hit both Roman Reigns and CM Punk in the family jewels.
24:58
Oh, you can't do that, can you? Aligned, aligned with Seth Rollins. Boom, big heel turn, big swerve. I mean, it, it was Cinema Heel turn and swerve technical terms for the wrestling folks? Yes.
25:09
Heel term is when you become- Yeah... a bad guy. No, I understand. You know? I understand. It's like when Katie went to the Warriors.
25:13
Was there something else you wanted to say about th- about the whole thing w- before we got on air, before that? Well, uh- Swerve. Yeah.
25:18
[laughs] I mean, y- you know, I give cred- um, Allegiant Stadium, it was a, it was a beautiful event. The, just the how they put everything together is spectacular.
25:26
But one thing I noticed, Gil, and I was talking about this, is we were w- way up in the nosebleeds, and if you have to, like, go, go to the bathroom or go get a, uh, drink, the rows are so tight, like if I slip and fall, I'm going down f- five rows.
25:41
And- Allegiant... yeah. Oh, wow. It's so t- I'm like sitting there like, "Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry." Like, "Please don't get mad at me," [laughs] 'cause I hopefully I'm not kicking anything that's down on the ground.
25:49
Well. Well. I'm glad you had a great time. It was. I'm glad it was a great life experience for you. It was. It was, it was worth the money, and I gotta give credit to my buddy. He found a great parking spot.
26:00
We parked at the, uh, the, was it the Fairfield? That's a little bit south, right by the In-N-Out. Mm-hmm. It, quote, unquote- That's the-... we were In-N-Outs... that's the parking hack? Yeah.
26:09
Well, you just paid for, I don't know, I think it was parking was like 20 bucks. The Wishnev specials- Yeah... we like to call it on the Megapod. So it was like- All right...
26:14
and, and I know the back roads in Vegas, so I was like, I didn't deal with any traffic at all. Uh, this, this gentleman seems like he'd be a WrestleMania fan. He was as a child, but he says as an adult he is not.
26:23
It's Paul Sporer, ladies and gentlemen, @Sporer on Twitter, S-P-O-R-E-R, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, joining us now to talk baseball. You are not a WrestleMania guy, right?
26:33
No, I'm, I'm no longer a wrestling fan, but- 'Cause you grew up- I'm very- Don't worry, Paul. If you got- Yes... if you got a couple minutes, I can get you back on it.
26:40
No, don't do- get the- I mean, I, I grew up in the, you know, Hogan, Macho Man, Ultimate Warrior era. That, that's a golden era. And greatly enjoyed it.
26:47
Got to go to, uh, uh, an event at, at the Joe Louis Arena in Detroit as a kid, which was wonderful. And I certainly don't throw stones at people that like it. I like plenty of very nerdy stuff.
26:59
So everyone enjoy your own nerdy stuff. That's right. Wrestling's just not, not for me. That's right. Well said, Paul. We all have our things. Yours just happens to be a different kind of thing.
27:08
Why, at the- Everything baseball related. That's- Right? I, I do remarkably nerdy stuff with baseball that people will look at me like, "What are you doing?"
27:15
So that's why I don't throw stones from this glass house over here. Well, that's true. If there's a baseball card show happening, like, you know, 10 miles away, I might go. So you're right- Right... about that.
27:25
About baseball, let me, uh, let's start with adjusted... Well, before we do that, let's start with your DFS, 'cause we always sort of push you up against a wall with that.
27:33
We have a Patriot's Day game in Boston happening here in about, uh, 25 minutes. Uh, give us a- Mm-hmm... DFS look today. What do you got? By the way, that game is always crazy, right?
27:44
You never know how guys are gonna react to it. Famously, Lucas Giolito pitched in it. Not an a- not a morning person, by his own admission. You know, late night video game type. Got absolutely clobbered in it.
27:55
So we'll see today if, uh, if either Walker Buehler or I wanna say Jonathan Cannon, uh, if either of them are morning guys, because that is a very early game. I went- Today's an interesting board. I went- Go ahead...
28:06
I went, I went, in 1990, I went to a Brewers 18 to nothing victory over the Red Sox on Patriot's Day, to your point. 18 to nothing. And so none of that team- Yes... was a morning person, very clearly. By the way, I,
28:20
I, I might go against Buehler in that, not because he's not a morning person, but because he's just not pitching very well. He's got a couple good starts in a row, but they're surface level good.
28:30
I'm just not seeing it with him. If it was any other team but the White Sox, I'd have a bit more confidence in it. But the pool today, um, i- isn't super deep in terms of great pitchers. You know, you love Schwarmbach.
28:41
St. Louis capable offense. They've been hitting pretty well, but I like Spencer Schwarmbach for sure. Hunter Brown against Toronto, again, competent team with some good players there.
28:50
Uh, Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, and the like, but I like Hunter Brown against Toronto. And then Nico LoDollo coming off of a paternity leave there. Congratulations to him becoming a father, I think for the first time.
29:00
I actually have no idea. I'm just guessing there. But he's going to Miami, and that team is terrible. Now I know they have a 9 and 12 record, which is halfway decent for what Miami is, but they cannot hit for anything.
29:12
So I'm looking at the top pitchers today because there's a f- only a few of them, and I, I think I'm just gonna play it safe with the pitching.
29:18
I, I like your, uh, I like your, you, you predicted whether a baseball player had more than one child, and then you recognized while you were doing it, you're like, "I probably have no idea," which, which is interesting because- Yeah.
29:27
What, what am I talking about?... Charles Barkley on Inside the NBA, the post game last night, uh, Billy Ray Bates, an old ballplayer, came up on a graphic, and on air he goes, "Is he even still alive?" And he's not.
29:37
[laughs] And he's not. And it was very awkward. [laughs] It was very awkward for about 30 seconds. Shock. Uh, yeah, just maybe off air. He, he- Ernie even said, he goes, "Maybe you should ask that off air."
29:48
Um- Ooh, that was a good, that was a good Ernie. Oh, thank you. Um, thank you very much. Uh, okay. Adjusted season win totals. Adjusted season win totals.
29:58
This is obviously, look, we're, we're 20 games into the season roughly, right? Right. We're an eight- you know, what is that? An eighth of the way through the season. Um, so it's not much.
30:06
But we do have the opportunity to look at some of these, and you are not necessarily locked into that betting market, so you're actually a good sort of, you know, um, person to ask this because you have a perspective where you're not too close to the sun.
30:20
Was there any of these that, that jumped off the page for you? These are available, by the way, this morning at FanDuel. Yeah.
30:26
Obviously, you wanna be careful, and, and you should probably be still staying pretty anchored to your preseason thoughts. Um, but with that in mind, it gives you an opportunity to maybe place some overreactions in.
30:37
You know, I, I would pretend that I'm just great at segues and, and that I mentioned a couple teams earlier 'cause I was gonna mention them here, but I, that's just dumb luck there.
30:46
But Miami and the White Sox are two teams that I'm looking at in opposite directions. A- again, I think Miami, uh, they're 9 and 12 right now. I think that would pace to what, like 68, 67 wins. I think they're terrible.
30:59
I, I, I like them under their 62 and-a-half still. You know, that's a team, and I- I've said this about the White Sox, so I'm bringing them in right now.
31:06
I like them over the 51 and-a-half 'cause I think they, they're gonna go different ways here.
31:10
I think Miami is a team that's gonna trade some of their very few decent parts that they have Chief among them, Sandy Alcantara, of course. Now Max Meyer will stick, uh, around. That's a great young pitcher.
31:21
He actually goes today too, I believe, um, uh, against Cincinnati, and I really do like him, but they have no hitting whatsoever. I don't think they have great reinforcements coming, so I like them to go under 62.5.
31:33
Meanwhile, the White Sox over 51.5, I think they go the other way.
31:37
Sure, they might trade some veteran pieces off to, you know, anybody for whatever they can get, but they're gonna be adding minor leaguers throughout the season. They've already done it with Chase Mydrow and Edgar Caro.
31:47
They're gonna add many more as the season goes. I think this team just gets better. Still a crappy team, let me be clear.
31:52
Still a bad team, still last in that division for the White Sox, but more of a 60-something win team.
31:58
51.5 just feels really light, and we're seeing that maybe some of those teams in the Central aren't as strong as we thought. Uh, Minnesota, Kansas City, I'm looking at you.
32:07
And so if White Sox can start to pick up some wins against those clubs, uh, then maybe their, their road becomes easier. So I like them at 51.5 on the over end.
32:17
Colorado too, another team I think that we're overreacting to. Now, I don't see them necessarily getting better, but 49.5 is a pretty crazy number.
32:24
I know part of it is because of the division they're in, and they could be this year's White Sox. They're four and 17.
32:30
But I think they'll matriculate into the 50s, maybe even into the low 60s because they often do, right? We've, we've seen wretched Colorado teams before. We've never seen them winning just 50, uh, just 49 games.
32:41
So over 49.5 for Colorado, I like that. Houston over 85.5, difficult division. I, I pick Texas to win it, um, so I have no problems with that.
32:51
But I think this Houston team just kind of treading water as, as the early part of the season goes. Remember last year they had that terrible start and had to rally.
32:58
This year they're not gonna have to do that, I don't think, and then they're gonna take off in the summer. And then the last one is the Dodgers under 106.5. Where are they winning 106.5 from?
33:06
First off, are they gonna try hard enough to do that? I don't think that they should. Why, why expend that sort of energy? Secondly, they're in a division with four teams that have 13 wins right now.
33:16
I don't see where they're winning 106.5. I got the Dodgers on the under. Steve Fezzik's head might have exploded. Although I think Steve went under on 106.5. Even he didn't go crazy on 106.
33:25
He thinks they will get to 100. Um, I thought you were gonna go the other way when you, when you started with Miami and Chicago. I thought you were gonna go the opposite direction.
33:33
I thought you were gonna go over on Miami and under on Chicago, so you surprised me there. Uh, interesting to look at. Again, those are often up and down at random times for books. Right.
33:42
This morning anyway, they were up at, uh, FanDuel, but check them out or look for them at other books as well. More with Paul Spohrer, who was kind enough to join us for two this morning on Patriot's Day.
33:52
Coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:33
Just wanna read this tweet from Gibby 'cause, uh, I can relate. He said, "Gil, I learned a lesson on Friday. One should not come home from outpatient Achilles surgery and fire off random bets while under the influence.
34:44
Lesson learned. Looking forward to listening to the show while I recover." Oh man, I hope you recover, uh, very quickly. Let me guess, basketball. That'd be my guess.
34:53
Um, Pitt Panther, uh, Gib there with the, uh, ruptured Achilles. Hope he's doing okay. Uh, what else happened in sports this weekend? Oh, uh, Iga lost to the Hamburger for the sixth time.
35:02
Jelena Ostapenko, who, uh, is taking on Sabalenka in the, uh, Stuttgart finals this morning. I don't know if they played it already. Did they play it already? Uh, time zone, time zone issues. Let's see. Did they play it?
35:13
They did, and Jelena Ostapenko, the Hamburger, wins Stuttgart. She beats, uh, Aryna Sabalenka. So she, uh, that's the other thing with Iga.
35:21
When she, when she loses, she tends to lose to the eventual title winner, and in this case, um, it was Ostapenko who wins Stuttgart on clay. Ostapenko herself a former French Open champion back in 2017.
35:33
But, uh, Iga against Swiatek, 500 or better against everybody else on tour. Oh and six now against that Hamburger. What are you gonna do? Uh, back to Paul Spohrer here.
35:42
Uh, and by the way, I don't know if there's an equivalent in sports to that, someone who's the best or second-best player in their sport who has this one thing they can't mentally get over.
35:53
Someone, someone will tell me an equivalent. Um, Paul Spohrer joins us once again, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, to talk Major League Baseball with us. Paul, you brought up the Dodgers.
36:01
We, we, uh, bet into these monthly markets here, and I, we started doing this last year. Last year there was, like, great success and there was great drama when we lost.
36:10
This, the seventh, as I mentioned, was my worst of all of them. I had the Twins this month. Good God, what was that all about? Um, so they're not even close.
36:20
They're closer to the bottom than they are the top, quite frankly.
36:22
But right now, with, what is that, 10 days left in the month of April, and this is March, April in some markets, April exclusively in others, in other books, it is the Padres at 16 and six and the Dodgers at 16 and seven.
36:37
Dodgers, uh, excuse me, Padres were a 28 to one pre-flop shot on this.
36:41
Dodgers were the short shot, uh, they were not a sexy play, followed by the New York Metropolitans at 15 and seven, and the San Francisco Giants and the Yankees both at 14 and eight. The Giants were 84 to one
36:57
to win this. Wow. Yeah. I've, uh, I mean, I'm just watching it from afar. I can't wait for the main numbers to come up.
37:04
Um, and I'm now doing that gambling thing where I'm rooting for the Dodgers to win it so that I don't feel bad about not betting anybody else 'cause there was no world in which I was gonna bet on the Dodgers.
37:13
No, of course, because they were gonna be the mega favorite and, and, and that way you're like, "Yeah, yeah, I was never gonna get there."
37:19
And by the way, I just wanna be clear, um, you know tennis so well that you know somebody's nickname is Hamburger. No, I made that up. It's not her nickname. I just- Okay... that's what I call her. Yeah.
37:27
[laughs] It's like- But you're nerdy enough about that, but then you're making fun of people's wrestling takes. Okay. That's e- exactly right.
37:34
Make sure that that's where we're at here, is that you're that deep in tennis- [laughs]... making up nicknames. Ah. With your own stuff. Okay, I'm just making sure. I, I resemble that remark is what I do. But anyway.
37:44
Uh- With regards to the Dodgers, yeah. Yeah They might win it here this month, and obviously you wouldn't feel bad about that, 'cause that's a team that you're not gonna get in on.
37:51
But again, just kind of going back to the first segment there, I, I, I don't really see the avenue to a buck 06, right? Because again, you have to kind of put pressure to do that, too. You have to try.
38:00
And it's not that they're gonna coast through and not try to win or not put out their best players, but how hard do they really have to expend their energy just to make sure that they get to October, you know?
38:10
And even if they are trying, is 106 really doable in a division where there's four winning teams right now, two of which were predicted at the beginning of the year? Arizona, San Diego had plenty of heat.
38:20
And the Giants, who, you know, they do this, right? They do this. They come up, they, they over-perform, and I'm not so sure that they don't have a little bit of staying power.
38:29
And I say that, Gil, as you very well know, as a longtime Giants hater. [laughs] Mm-hmm.
38:34
Not a personal hater, but as somebody who never fully believes in them, like the year that they popped off for their 100 win plus, 100 plus win season, I was a bit skeptical until the very end.
38:43
But as somebody who's skeptical on them, I'm looking at this Giants team and I think they have some viability. So when you pair that with the Padres, Diamondbacks, I just don't see where you're getting the buck 06.
38:53
Um- Not yet By the way, back to the Dodgers for a second. If you, if you want a, a recommendation, Apple TV has a Dodgers docuseries about them winning the World Series last year.
39:02
So if you enjoy, like, watching the Yankees commit three turn, uh, three, uh, errors in a half, uh, an inning, in a frame of an inning in dramatic musical fashion, I would recommend that, uh, highly to you.
39:13
Um, the thing about the Giants, it, it triggers this in my head. You're looking at the AL and the NL right now. Right.
39:19
Um, the e- the AL's best run differential team is the Yankees at plus 30, just to give you an e- uh, an example. You know, the, the Mets and the Giants are plus 30. Uh, you have the Padres at plus 35.
39:32
You have the Cubs at plus 41. What we're seeing is a bit of a difference early on- Right... between National League prowess and American League prowess.
39:41
Is that a thing, or is that just an early season, you know, small sample thing? I, I, I don't think it is necessarily early season.
39:47
'Cause again, I think this is something that we saw coming into the year a bit, and it's playing out early.
39:52
Again, if it was just, if it was completely counter to what we thought two, three weeks ago, I probably wouldn't be in on it.
39:58
But there was already inklings of this, and even full-out discussions of it, like, "Hey, the National League is much better than the American League for this, that, and the other reason."
40:06
And again, we are seeing it play out completely. You know, I love my Tigers. Everyone knows that. But they're tied for the second-most wins in the American League. Like, that's crazy.
40:15
And it would be one, two, three, four, five, six. They'd be the sixth-best team i, in the National League, tied with the Diamondbacks and Phillies. Like, that, that is an easy microcosm of where we're at right now.
40:27
Uh, and again, no shade to my Tigers, but are they a, are they a titan right now? I don't think so.
40:31
I think they're, like, one of those upstart sort of teams, and yet they're looking like a titan in the American League because of the lack of depth right now.
40:38
So no, I believe the American, the National League is a lot stronger, and that has to play into your win total bets for the National League, right? 'Cause again, they start beating up on each other.
40:48
I know that it's a more balanced overall schedule, but if you have all these good teams, they're gonna start taking wins from each other and it's gonna be tough. And there's not as many bottom-feeders.
40:56
The Rockies are definitely bad, even though I think they can beat the 49 and a half wins. Uh, Pittsburgh is, too. But then it's the Braves and the Nats next. The Braves are expected to be a good team.
41:06
They're kind of this year's Astros, where everyone is probably still waiting for them to flip the switch. And then the Nats, not playing super well, but they're a pretty interesting offense.
41:14
Uh, that's still an offense that I like. So yeah, I find the National League a standard deviation or more better than the American League right now. I like it. Standard deviation cashes as well on the show.
41:23
By the way, Max Fried took a no-no into the eighth yesterday. 7-1 AL Cy Young interest you at all? Um, a bit.
41:31
Certainly something, if I'm going anywhere for Cy Young right now, or any of these awards, I'm going, I'm going deeper on the board. You're not gonna catch me getting any of the favorites right now.
41:40
You gotta play stuff that's a bit deeper if you're gonna go here, because it's already a bit of a long shot. And if you get too caught up on, you know, two, three weeks, I think you're just asking.
41:50
You know, maybe if you're doubling down on somebody you like. Listen, I was big on Fernando Tatis. The odds aren't good. I mean, it, it, he's the second favorite behind Shohei.
41:57
But if you wanted to put more on that, o- okay, that's something. But other than that, I'm staying away from favorites unless I was already on them, especially in Rookie of the Year.
42:04
I know you asked about Cy Young, but especially in Rookie of the Year right now, I'd be open to playing guys who aren't even up. I think Roman Anthony has just as good of a chance as anybody right now.
42:14
Nick Kurtz for the Athletics, if he can hit the way people expect he can, he's a way better bet than teammate Jacob Wilson, who is the short shot in the American League right now. So yeah, I think with these- Mm...
42:25
uh, individual player awards, you shouldn't be going anywhere near the favorites. You're trying to cash something solid there. You know, don't go completely down the board and be like Paul Goldschmidt for AL MVP.
42:34
No shade, but, like, give me a break. But, you know, get in the middle of the board when you're gonna go on those. Uh, I already don't love tying up my money into six-month, uh, uh, award bets.
42:45
But if I'm gonna do it, I wanna get a little cute with it. Half-unit type plays where there's a little bit more risk to it. All right, that's good advice.
42:51
Let, just for giggles here in our last 90 seconds, then, there are some really rando ones that aren't available in every book. But again, we mentioned FanDuel earlier.
42:59
They have Manager of the Year and they have Reliever of the Year. You took a look at these markets. Do you have any thoughts on those?
43:05
So when you're looking at the Manager of the Year, what I would probably do is, you know, again, they are being prisoners of the moment a bit. Bruce Bochy. AJ Hinch is at the top for the American League. Yeah.
43:15
And again, my Tigers, but, like, come on. Um, and then you got Bruce Bochy there. I'm probably looking for those stable teams that are a bit lower down, right? I know the Yank- y- you mentioned the Yankees.
43:27
Boone, he's at, at plus 2200. He's like 12th on the board here. It's boring. It's absolutely boring as hell, but I'd rather do something like that with Aaron Boone. I'd rather go Joe Espada plus 2500.
43:38
Houston, again, a team I'm still gonna stay committed to. I'd rather go there. Terry Francona, that one's a little bit off the board a bit, 'cause Cincinnati, I don't think is, like, a special team.
43:48
But, uh, he's fifth on the board. But again, then I go back to Dave Roberts, Torey Lovullo. They're both plus 1100. I'm gonna stick to the teams that were expected to be great coming in.
43:58
I'm not gonna fall victim to the teams that are hot right now. Bob Melvin, AJ Hinch near the top of their respective boards, or at the top in Hinch's case.
44:05
I don't wanna play those right now because that's being prisoner of the moment, in my opinion. Okay, I love it.
44:10
Um, ladies and gentlemen, just for the record, uh, Paul, I believe, compared, uh, Jelena Ostapenko to John Cena, I believe- Right... earlier on the show. Yep. Um, yeah. One is filled with just
44:24
histrionics and drama, and the other is John Cena. [laughs] Yep. They, uh- The World Wrestling, [laughs] World Wrestling, whatever they're calling it now. Federation, whatever the E stands for. I have no idea, Paul.
44:36
Thank you. Appreciate it. Take care, Gil. Paul Spohrer, everybody, @Spohrer. FanGraphs is where he does his thing. Sleeper and the Bus, the name of the podcast. Once again, courtesy of Progressive Gaslighting.
44:46
Wes Reynolds off another golf winner next
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