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Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:34
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. It is the Numbers Game. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:12
Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidler. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 189. Yes, sir. See what I did there? I did. A little spin move.
0:22
Uh, on the show today, Tim Murr gonna talk college football with us this hour. Uh, we'll do the Wednesday whip-around. Every game in the NFL, we got thoughts. We got survivor thoughts. We got ATS thoughts.
0:33
We got thoughts. Will Hill, all his bets, National Football League, Major League Baseball, maybe some college football. Paul Spohrer on baseball. Nick Whalen,
0:41
Whalen, NFL talk week two, how he's feeling about his Jaguars heading up to take on the Denver Broncos after their big win over the Browns. Can we call it a big win?
0:50
I mean, it was a, it was a huge win on, on the scoreboard. I mean, it's, that's a great start to the season, right? Well done. You did what you're supposed to do. Yeah, I mean, you gotta feel good about that. Yeah.
0:57
We'll see if there's any, uh, tailin' Whalen this week. I, I ta- I tailed Whalen last week and it worked out.
1:02
And because it's, because it's Wednesday, which is sort of the, uh, i- if there is a dip in a football season, the only day of the week is the Wednesday, right? 'Cause you're like- Yeah...
1:11
"Okay, well, we can still talk about baseball here. Let's, let's get the baseball in as much as we can." I'm just liking that I had this whole conversation with Ad- with Andrew Maxwell yesterday. Oh, you did.
1:18
I'm like, I'm like, "Football season gets really nice and we get set in our ways, and then all of a sudden, Wednesday hits." [laughs] So I wanna show some... I texted this to the group chat yesterday.
1:28
I am not a, and I think we've had this sidebar conversation before, I'm not a natural Dan Le Batard fan. Mm-hmm. I don't really get the Dan Le Batard thing.
1:36
You, you, you were in South Florida for a long time, so you're different. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:40
I, I, I used to be a big fan of the show, but, like, it's, it has just wildly changed what he has done from, you know, 15, 20 years ago- Oh, okay... to where he's at now. Oh, well that's fair. Yeah.
1:49
'Cause I, 'cause I really don't get it, 'cause I'm like, not, not particularly funny, not particularly smart at sports, not particularly anything, right? But apparently is nowadays.
1:55
He just does what he wants to do now, yeah. But I am giving him a big shout-out for something he did yesterday- That's hilarious... which is freaking incredible. Yeah. Like, I, I w- it stopped me in my tracks.
2:06
I was like, "This can't be true." So I only, I only got to listen to about a half of it when you sent it, 'cause we went to dinner- It's incredible...
2:11
and didn't hear it right away, and, uh, everything that he said, Gil, I'm like, I remember. It's incredible. We'll get into that here- Yeah... in, uh, in the coming moments. Mm-hmm. Either this segment or next segment.
2:21
Drew Maxwell turning it around as fast as he can. I'll ask for updates every three minutes, I'm so excited about it. Kelly enjoys when I ask for updates. Okay, um, d- you have Triple Crown fever? Yeah, for sure, man.
2:31
Uh, Yordan Álvarez hits a dingdong yesterday, but so does Junior Caminero. So Yordan now still two back in the home run race, 41 to 39, three back in the RBI race, 101 to 98, and he's clinging to a batting average lead
2:49
by two one-thousandth of a po- two one-thousandths of a point. Really? [laughs] Yeah, so, so Yordan still minus 2.
2:56
Uh, again, my contention is because he still leads in OBP, he still lives in s- he still leads in slugging, obviously therefore he leads in OPS. He's third in hits and second in runs, or the other way around, second...
3:09
Whatever. You just keep on, going on and on with that stuff. He's still the MVP to me, but the case is building, right? People wanna... First of all, Cam Schlittler dropped to 25 to 1. Mm-hmm.
3:21
This y- Yeah, we ge- we got a tweet about this yesterday. Lenny Casillas. This just in, he's a pitcher. Yeah. Yeah. Um, and, and in between Schlittler and Álvarez is Junior Caminero at 13 to 1. So there are...
3:30
And, and now we have our Joe Sheehan, I don't know if we can call him our Joe Sheehan, but Joe Sheehan who comes on the show. Mm-hmm. [clears throat] Pardon me. JoeSheehan.com. Joe_Sheehan on t- on Twitter.
3:39
He likes Bobby Witt Jr.
3:41
I made the suggestion to him yesterday, "Hey, if it's not gonna be Álvarez, wouldn't it be Caminero who at least is on the team that looks like," looks like I say cautiously, "that they could win their division," right?
3:54
Whereas Álvarez could win his division, but as a, as a near 500 give or take a game team, right? They could be a, a game above in the end, or two games above in the end, or two games below in the end for all we know.
4:07
Can't be one above or one below. Or 500 when they win this division, if they win this division, because the Rangers are knocking at the door in that division, a, a game back.
4:16
And then Bobby Witt Jr., forget about it with the, with the Royals. That doesn't even apply, right? So it, it's all in the mix, and I'm curious i- I know people who are betting Caminero.
4:26
I don't see it, but I understand that the, the, the pathway for them is for Álvarez not to hit a homer like he did last night, right? Is to just keep a swoon going throughout. Mm-hmm.
4:37
And then for the four game set between the Rays and the Yankees next week, it's a double header on Tuesday, then single games on Wednesday and Thursday. That's gonna be a fascinating series.
4:47
As it stands right now, the Rays have a three-and-a-half game lead over the Yankees. So unlike this Guardians-White Sox series, which is now back after the Guardians had the dramatic win last night,
4:59
Bryan Rocchio with the, uh, the dramatic ninth inning go-ahead shot to win it, or b- or base hit to hit to win it 7-6 for the Guardians. So the White Sox and Guardians have split the first two of their three-game set.
5:09
The rubber match is this morning. Right now the Guardians one and a half back in the AL Central. The Rays, by contrast, could go into that series next week. Right now they're three and a half up on the Yankees.
5:20
If they can go into that four-game set up roughly, let's say it's three games. Well, well, it'll be a half at that point. Let's say it'll be th- let's say it'll be three and a half. Let's say it is what it is.
5:28
That's a pretty casual position to be in. Basically, you go into that series saying, "I just don't wanna get swept. We'll be all right after that." 'Cause at that point there's only one series left in the season, right?
5:40
As, as is now, the Rays are the only team that have 12 games left. Every team else in Major League Baseball has 10 or 11. So all that to say, Caminero is in a... I- if you believe in the,
5:51
"Hey, he played for the first place team in the AL East, the AL East champs. Oh, and also by the way, he played for the number one seed in the American League." Yeah. If you believe that voters factor that in hugely-
6:05
Then, okay, you can make that case, but you also have to then hope that Alvarez swoons and the Astros don't win their division. Yeah. Uh, boring, sorry. You g- uh, good filibustering there.
6:16
It was, uh, I was just trying to check for Triple Crown odds. Nobody has it up. I mean, is it like- Yeah... is it just so long at this point? I guess. I, I don't think it's that long. I know. Like, how does nobody...
6:26
I, I, I'm gonna go nuts about this in another segment. I mean, he's more, he's more likely not to get it than he is to get it. Sure. Sure. [laughs] Right. Right. But, but it's not impossible.
6:33
Like, aren't these the props that, like, these books clean up on, where you just get the average Joe- Yeah. I don't get it... or whatever, be like, "Ah, let me go bet on this- Yeah... to see history." It's very strange.
6:41
Right? Uh- The other one, the other one with that is, uh, uh, is PCA with the 40, with the 40 stolen bases, right? I'm surprised that's not a prop that's up everywhere.
6:50
I mean, I know you can go bet at every game or whatever for him- Yeah... to get a stolen base. Three stolen bases shy of being the seventh ever 40/40 guy. The, uh, okay, back to the MVP thing real quick.
6:58
And both, it, it should be pointed out, both Triple Crown and 40/40 are things that as, uh, they are not actual things. They are things that we have created. Sure. Right? Sure. Fine. Yeah.
7:07
But, but baseball has its lore- Yeah... so that if Alvarez wins it, there's not even a discussion, Triple Crown.
7:15
And if Pete Car- Pete Carroll Armstrong's already winning NL MVP, but if he were to get 40/40, it'd be tough, you know, even if he had competition, if he got that, that would probably be the differentiator.
7:23
I mean, the Bear- the Chicago Bears have never had a how many yard passer? 4,000. I mean, it's just a number that, you know- Yeah... just a number that we've made a huge deal about for 30 years.
7:32
Well, that's a franchise specific thing, yes. Yeah, I mean, sure. Yeah, sure. 'Cause they've been, they've been around since the dawn of time, and how is it possible that Sid Glickman, was that a guy?
7:41
I think it wasn't Sid Glickman, one of their quarterbacks? [laughs] Sure. How did he never get 4,000 back in the day? Sure. Slinging Sammy Baugh probably did it. DC, Sid Glickman couldn't do it? Is that a name?
7:53
Uh- You checking? Yeah, I'm checking. Yeah. All right. Yeah. And there, there is a, there is a picture of a man, uh, Marty Glickman. No. Does that count? No. [laughs] Not Marty Glickman. I'm, I don't know.
8:02
I keep getting, missing his name. But what were you saying, though, about the baseball stuff? Oh, Marty, Marty Glickman versus Sid Luckman. Sid Luckman. There you go. Thank you. There you go. Glickman, Luckman. Try.
8:10
Yeah. You're, you're mixing up, you're mixing up your football players that were wearing that. I saw him at shul one day. I couldn't remember his last name.
8:16
Uh, you, you, you're also mixing up football players that weren't wearing helmets when they were playing. [laughs] I'm sorry.
8:20
Uh, no, the MVP though, and so I do think this is inter- interesting, 'cause you and Joe had a great conversation about it yesterday, I thought, 'cause I, you know me, I'm just kind of sitting over here listening to the points.
8:29
And okay, get it why Yordan's the favorite. I, like, I think these cases are interesting, though. I, I, I can see why Schlitter's getting some love just because- No...
8:41
of what I said yesterday of just, like, is there an overwhelming case here? And if not, like, is this a, is this one of those chances for a pitcher to surge up? So- So what, they're gonna give him Cy and MVP? Come on.
8:52
Nah, nah, I don't think so. I don't... It- Where I think this is going, though, is it brings me back to, like, what you brought up yesterday about Caminero.
8:58
It's like, I just think when you stack up all these resumes, like, if anything, it would be Caminero. If not Al- if not Alvarez- If not Alvarez... it would be Caminero. Yeah. Yeah.
9:06
I, I just, and all this stuff about, you know, because people are correctly saying, what about Junior Caminero playing third base? What about Bobby Witt Jr.- Mm-hmm... being this unbelievable shortstop? Yeah.
9:14
Fair points, for sure. To, to, two s- fair points and to some voters that is going to matter.
9:18
To most voters, and we talk about this with Cy Young, I hate to say it, but, like, the granular stuff that we did, I mean, Sp- the Spencer Strider thing three, two, three years ago is the best example.
9:27
Spencer Strider, now he blew up at the end, so he didn't deserve it. He wasn't even a finalist in the end. But all those advanced stats that he was crushing in, they don't really matter to these voters ultimately, right?
9:38
The, the Tango Cy Young formula is just wins and innings pitched and strikeouts. That's it. Those three things is the back of your baseball card when you were seven years old, six years old.
9:49
That's all that matters to these guys, as it turns out, when you do the back testing retroactively on this stuff. So anyway, that's where that is. By the way, September wins.
9:58
Oh, LFC title record letting us know Calci has Alvarez priced as the Triple Crown winner at plus 945. Again, he has to overcome two home runs, he has to overcome three RBI, and he's only holding onto the batting average
10:13
at two one-thousandth, two one-thousandths of a point. So it is unlikely. And plus nine, 945 is probably the correct price at this point. Mm-hmm. Um, September wins. Yankees, Dodgers both win yesterday.
10:26
Yankees and Dodgers 10 and three, 10 and four. Dodgers were my third choice, I wish I had stuck with them. Brewers, Rays, Padres, Tigers all with nine. By the way, the Blue Jays just, uh, absolutely.
10:38
The Blue Jays and Red Sox have just fallen. Pirates, Athletics, Guardians all with eight wins. Um, our Red Sox, our Blue Jays falling now at seven wins. They just can't get off the schneid.
10:48
And we're running out of games. So this look, this just looks like a Yankees Dodgers run out, and we're gonna do- Best record? We're gonna, we're gonna do best record- Yeah... worst record here after the break, which is
10:58
the Dodgers. It was, like, Jason Weigard texted me earlier this month. He goes, "Are the Dodgers gonna lose a game all, all month?" I, of course, they did, and they have, but I get the point. But we are in that.
11:09
It's just interesting to see Dodgers and Brewers both, I mean, 10 and four, nine and four this month. I mean, what, what did we say all summer? Like, does it, is it gonna matter? I mean, these two teams
11:19
basically clear the field now, right? For buys. Yes. That's, yeah. The, the, after all is said and done, the Los Angeles Dodgers are cruising into a top two seed. But, like, it's two games back.
11:31
Do they care about the one seed? You know what I mean? Like, these are the things- Don't-... that we wondered about and said out loud Don't know that, don't know that they do, but the Braves are three wins back. Mm-hmm.
11:41
I don't know if it's three games or two and a half games. Three and a half games. Yeah. Yeah, three and a half games. I don't know that they care about the one seed. Maybe they do. Maybe they do, based on matchup.
11:49
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12:47
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13:02
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13:21
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13:31
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin on this Wednesday, heading into week two of the National Football League season. Um, so I, I mentioned this at the top of the show, and I just wanted... This is, this is apropos of nothing.
13:43
Yeah. But, but I just found it so incredible, 'cause we all wa- we all take in football day on Saturdays and Sundays, and certainly we do in the prime time games Sunday night and Monday night.
13:52
And it's a, uh, I think it's a fascinating thing about what our brain... W- we're watching in real time what our brain processes and what it doesn't. I usually talk about this through the lens of analytics, right?
14:05
The Dean Oliver quote again, "Your eyes see one game better. Analytics sees an entire season of games better." Um, but I'm always fascinated by what the brain processes.
14:14
Dan Lebatard did something the oth- he, he did this on his show yesterday, which I just thought was unbelievable, because I watched the full game, and I didn't notice this. Yeah, this is like you with the hot dog plates.
14:28
Yes. [laughs] This is what the hot... This is like the hot dog plates. [laughs] You had to go back and watch it again. That's right. You had to go back and watch it again. Well, Dan Lebatard, this is self...
14:36
He's gonna explain it all to you, but he went back after the first half of the Broncos-Chiefs game, and instead of watching the second half, something
14:46
s- not caught his eye, but caught his ear in the first half, and, well, he'll explain it from here. Instead of watching the second half, I went back and re-watched the first half so that I could do this with you guys.
14:58
This is what Troy Aikman... ESPN has the Super Bowl this year. This is what Troy Aikman said. "The Denver roster is as deep as any in football.
15:09
Reid understands as much as anyone in football that they've gotta run the football. Pat Bryan had as good a camp as anyone in football. Denver has as deep a wide receiver room as anyone in football.
15:20
Denver has as good a secondary as there is in all of football. Trent McDuffie is as good as anyone in all of football." That was the first quarter. First quarter. Second quarter.
15:32
"Denver is as good as any defense in football," even though they don't take the ball away. "Denver plays as much man as anyone in football. Kenneth Walker is as patient as anyone in football.
15:45
Riley Moss gets targeted as much as anyone in football." I don't believe you. "Denver has as good an offensive line as there is in football. Vance Joseph is as good a defensive coordinator as there is in all of football.
15:56
Sean Payton is as good a play caller as there is in all of football. Courtland Sutton is as good as anyone in football winning one-on-one." I don't, I don't believe you. I went back and wrote it. I didn't believe it.
16:06
Like, I'm like, "That can't, that can't be how I'm hearing this. I'm listening passively." I w- I went back. I didn't see the second half. I went back and watched the first half and just took all of those notes.
16:16
I'm not... I, I did not watch the second half of that football game, because I'm like, "Am I hearing this right?" Like, how...
16:22
Is, is this what's happening here, where it's just everyone in this game and the next game and everyone Aikman does is as good as anyone in football?
16:29
Are you comfortable saying you're the only one who experienced that game like this- Yes... last night? [laughs] Yes. I'm not making that up, and I, I would...
16:39
Th- the reason that I did it is because, like, did I hear that right? It just seemed like... 'Cause I never noticed it before.
16:45
It just seemed like that was the go-to on everything, and I'm not saying those two teams aren't, uh, very good, but one of them didn't make the playoffs last year. That is just unbelievable. Yeah.
16:55
I'm, like, I'm gobsmacked by that. Me too. By the way, shout out Lebatard Show, DraftKings Network for that. Yes. Yep, yep. That, that is... I... So I went ahead then and counted
17:03
w- the number of times Lebatard said this about Aikman. It was six times in the first quarter, eight more times in the second quarter, 14 total times that Aikman said something was as good as anything in football.
17:16
I, it, it... Look, we talked about it yesterday too. I didn't...
17:19
I, I'll, I'll be honest, I didn't have full volume up for the entire second half of that game, but the first half I did, and as I'm wa- listening through that, I'm like, I'm like, my, in my head it's like, "Check, check."
17:29
Like, I remember hearing, "That, that, that, that." I just didn't put it together like Dan Lebatard- I didn't put it together either... in football, in football. I didn't put it together e- either.
17:36
That's why shout-out to him for... That, that's... We all have... Listen, in br- this is a little inside- Yeah. Oh, my God... this is a little- Please, nobody do this to one of our shows.
17:43
[laughs] This, this is a little inside baseball for broadcasting. We all have crutches. Right? That, that was the broadcast term that I was taught back in the day. Yeah. Yes. Crutches, right? We all have crutches.
17:51
I'll say, "Um," you know. Yeah, yeah. I'll do stuff like that. Uh's and um's are very common. Right. Those are common things. You hear me do it all the time. Yep. But that
17:58
Is unbelievable It really is And now you won't be able to unhear it. My hope- That's the problem... my hope is, is that this will get back to Troy Aikman and he will try very hard not to do it ever again.
18:11
He's- 'Cause if he even does it once now, people are gonna be, "There it is." I don't know, man.
18:15
This is like what happened with, like, Roblow and Collinsworth things, and it gets on social media, the internet takes off with it. And I mean, we all make the same jokes then after. Oh, man. Man. I feel bad for Troy.
18:27
Back to baseball. Best [laughs] it's the- Great, good find. Good find by you. Oh. Obviously, then, and then Levitar's sitting there doing that. I, it's, it is... W- we have, we have, we have messed up brains.
18:37
I- Like, those of us that have to watch sports like this I sent it to the group chat last night. I was like, "This is amazing." It really is. Because if you did something 14 times in a span of two quarters- Mm-hmm...
18:50
in our case, two segments, you would recognize it about yourself. I, I mean, I think, or I hope you would. But I didn't as a listener and as a viewer. Anyway, best/worst records, Major League Baseball.
18:59
I mean, like, I, like, "Joe Buck, where you at? Help out your partner." Yeah, well. "Shut up." Well, but, 'cause that's another dynamic. If Joe noticed it, is he gonna be like, "Hey, Hall of Famer.
19:08
I'm with the Hall of Famer, Troy Aikman"? I'd hope so. I would. I'd hope, I would hope you'd say it about me. I'd tell you. I would, yeah. Yeah. You would say that to me?
19:15
I would, I would tell you if you had said something that many times in a row. That's right. "Gil, you've said mishpocha 14 times." [laughs] Exactly. 14 times in the last two segments.
19:22
[laughs] Uh, Brewers have the inside track for best record of baseball.
19:26
Now, Kelly and I have done this many times throughout the summer, and when the Brewers were plus $4, I think was the, was the longest when we started doing this- Yeah... we recommended the Brewers.
19:36
Brewers have a two-game lead over the Dodgers.
19:39
Each team has 11 games left in the season, so two-game lead, 11 games left, but as you will see on this graphic, the Dodgers have the fifth remaining easiest schedule, in other words, 26th hardest, but let's call it fifth easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball,.458 opponent winning percentage.
19:57
They're plus 230 with that remaining schedule. The Brewers have the two-game lead minus 205. Minus 205 to get there. Um, by the way, you know what the one thing I didn't find out? Drew, you can find this.
20:09
Brewers, Dodgers, who, who leads the tiebreaker? They still play each other, do they, at all? Checking. Um, so that's the- Andrew will check on the tiebreaker...
20:18
so that's, that's the, uh, that's the story there, is, is that the Dodgers do have the vastly easier schedule.
20:25
Brewers on the road finishing this series with the Pirates, two remaining with the Pirates, then on the road for three with the Orioles, on the road for three with the Phillies,
20:34
and then back home for three with the Cardinals. Right. They do not play each other anymore. Um, and it's, B- Brewers hold the tiebreaker, which is what makes that... Thank you. Thank you, Drew.
20:44
Which m- which is what makes that price a little more. So in effect, it's a three-game lead, not a two-game lead. [laughs] But the schedule is the schedule, right?
20:53
Um, as Kelly just said, Dodgers, besides playing the Phillies, which is really the only tough opponent, it's just an absolute, you know, an absolute rule. Giants, Padres, Giants.
21:05
Yeah, so, so the question becomes- After Reds... so the question becomes, as you did early, as you s- asked earlier,
21:10
the Dodgers obviously care about being the one and two seed because in the MLB playoff format you get a bye, meaning you avoid the best of three.
21:16
And I don't care how good you are, I don't care if you're the '27 Yankees- Mm-hmm... you could lose a best of three. Mm-hmm. Maybe not the '27 Yankees, but you get the idea. So
21:25
the real thing that the Dodgers are worried about is the Braves behind them, but the Braves are three and a half back, so they're probably not gonna have to worry about that.
21:32
So do the Dodgers just say to themselves next week, once they clear the Braves, right, once they clinch the number two position over the Braves, "We're good. We're ready for the post-" Right...
21:42
"season," and that's very possible. So that's why even though they have the easy schedule, I cannot really recommend a Dodgers bet. It's always been the Brewers on this show. Yep. It continues to be the Brewers.
21:51
I, it's ju- I lo- I love when we kinda pick up on something, you know, halfway through a season and it just plays out- Yeah... that way the entire way.
21:59
Like, you know, the conversation a few m- couple months ago, right, was, well, is anybody, anybody going to join these guys, right? Braves kinda threatened, but really aren't gonna get there.
22:08
Uh, as you said, we brought up the Brewers multiple times in this market. Yeah. But, um, I think it's interesting with this little time left, like, is... I don't know if minus 205's short enough.
22:18
Uh, I think it's short enough. I mean, like, a three-game lead? Like, they might just back their way into this.
22:24
I, but it's also, look, the one thing we didn't say about the Brewers back then, 'cause this was such a Dodgers-focused conversation, you, we could say the same thing about both teams now, right?
22:33
'Cause it's, it's, the Dodgers are three and a half clear of the Braves. Yeah. You look, the Brewers are five and a half clear. Mm. How much do they care? I know Brewers got the number one seed last year.
22:41
Pat Murphy's going for his third consecutive Manager of the Year award, which has never been done before. Uh, clinched, clinched division last night, right? Four straight division titles.
22:49
Yeah, all these divisions are- Hoo... the Dodgers are about to clinch theirs. I, the, dude, the champagne will never get old to me. Uh- It's too funny...
22:55
real quick, by the way, MLB worst record in case you were interested here with, again, 11 games or 10 games left in the season, mostly 11 games left for everybody as the season ends next Sunday.
23:04
Not this Sunday, but next Sunday. The Colorado Rockies, minus 475 to get the worst record. They're 56 and 95.
23:11
They have a two-game, quote, unquote, "lead," if you will, over the Los Angeles Angels, but you will see the Angels' schedule is the fourth easiest remaining schedule. In this category, that's not good. Right.
23:22
Rockies have a middling schedule. We also on this show have always said, with the exception of one time when the Giants- Yeah, yeah, Giants... had drifted to some ridiculous number. Long number, yep.
23:30
It was always about the Rockies- This-... and it looks like the Rockies are gonna coast in yet again. But, uh, but maybe we're gonna have n- no team is gonna have fewer than 60 wins this year.
23:38
Great races this entire season, though. Yeah. These were fun. And, and the Brewers and Dodgers were the inside track to get to 100. Rays too, but we'll see. They still got work to do.
23:46
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Football season is here, and the sharp money's already moving. Here's how the sharp play sees it.
24:00
First, they track every line before the public ever sees it through exclusive data feeds from four major sports books, and thousands of sharp bettors and professional syndicates all filtered and sorted by their AI model.
24:11
That's the machine, now the receipts. Sharpplays.com. Check 'em out Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, we get tweets made of the book, best listeners ever.
24:19
Minky Monkey Man, "Gil, said Glickman, laughing emoji, recalling his time with Gil's family. Glickman said, [laughs] 'We used to make him take off his leather helmet before he came into temple.' You guys are the best.
24:30
I know, I meant Sid Luckman. Same concept. Yeah. Rhodes knows, uh, "Le Batard used to care about the little guy.
24:36
He used to brag about being a disruptor, but on the inside of the machine when he lost to Gots and Billy, some of the awkward personality, it, it went downhill fast, just turned into society mainstream talk show.
24:44
Sucks he really had a cool lane with his dad also." Oh, I loved the- Yeah... I loved the interaction with his dad. That was a- That was fantastic. Was it anybody on the show again? Pre- pretty perfect tweet right there.
24:54
Yeah. That's kinda how I feel about it as well. Highly questionable, right? Highly questionable. I had a question. That's right.
24:58
Uh, Buddhist Man, "Oh, for the halcyon days of Benny Friedman, Joseph Doc Alexander, no relation, and the Hor- [laughs] and the Horween brothers. 1920s NFL leaflet radio better than tax code radio." [laughs] Absolutely.
25:09
Uh, GV, New Jersey, New York, "This is the, uh, How I Met Your Mother glass shattering concept. When you're told something, you can't unsee it.
25:15
I understand Aikman's using it as a crutch, but a lot of your big-time national broadcast color guys have/had pretty obvious and annoying crutches. Gruden, Collinsworth really s- really stick out."
25:26
Uh, LFC Tunnel Records, "I would take Aikman's as good as anyone in football over almost anything Booger McFarland ever said on air." Patrick Kelly, "As good a producer in all of Oy Vey," he says.
25:36
Two drinks in, the Aikman crutch is gonna turn into an amazing drinking game. Real Knicks, "Not sure why you're picking on Aikman. I watch you and Kelly every day 'cause you're as good as anyone at Vsan.
25:44
As good as anyone at Vsan. As good as anyone at Vsan." [laughs] As good as anyone at Vsan. [laughs] Uh- I don't know, man... Chance Copperpot, "Is Gil the best at matriculating the word matriculating football?"
25:55
[laughs] "Say what you want about Dan Le Batard, I still like his show because of stuff like this." Yeah, that's great. Mm-hmm. He was great for coming up with that. Rules for Society, "I don't know, Gil.
26:02
Sweating the Rockies 60 wins ticket. Finally got a win after nine-game losing streak, sitting at 56." Yeah, it's gonna be tight. It's gonna be tight. Stringfellow Hawk, "Just check out the last segment of this episode.
26:12
Hilarious story about the crew attending a shiva." Oh, 'cause I said shiva earlier. Thank you, Stringfellow. Appreciate it. Stringfellow from North Carolina, one of our favorites. Mm-hmm.
26:19
Tim Murray joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to talk some college football with us and get some seriousness up in here. Um- A man who's never needed a crutch word. Never. Never. That man, no crutches.
26:29
Uh, smooth as something real smooth. Smooth operator. Tim Murray one... Oh, excuse me, One Tim Murray. Pardon me, got him mixed up with the Wes Reynolds, uh, handle. Yeah. One Tim Murray.
26:40
Tim is the, uh, host of not only Vsan Primetime, but also the College Football, uh, Podcast, College Football Tailgate Show. It's all about college football. Tim, good morning. How you doing, man? I'm great.
26:51
How we doing? How we doing, gentlemen? We're good. We're doing well. I- Just fine and dandy. I got a question for you. Yeah.
26:56
On your first pod after this weekend of football, 'cause you do multiple college football betting pods a week, right? Episodes. Three. Th- three. Uh, Tim, what's the schedule during football season? Yes.
27:07
That feels like something we should ask. Monday with Adam Burke, Wednesday with Wes Reynolds 1 and Brett Ciancia at Pick Six Previews, and then the Thursday preview pod with Matt Yeomans. So three episodes every week.
27:23
Wow. Okay, so first episode post this past weekend, how much time did you devote to Sarkisian and Ryan Day just dueling botching that end of game scenario with Texas and Ohio State? [laughs] Uh, a little bit, for sure.
27:39
Um, just i- it's, it's wild to me, and I don't know if you guys played the clip of Ryan Day basically still defending himself for not allowing them to score and say, "Well, you know, it didn't work, so I guess I was wrong."
27:52
It's like, no, you were, you were wrong because you're not gonna stop them- That's right... four straight times at the one-yard line. You let them score. You're down one.
28:00
I know your field goal kicker just missed a 45-yarder, but you've got Jeremiah Smith, you've got Julian Sayin. Go try to make a play. Don't try to stop Texas four times.
28:10
And then Sark, I mean, where do we start with Sark? I mean, the whole Holly Rowe situation- Yeah...
28:16
and then him already complaining about, "Well, you know, Ohio State should actually be rewarded for playing this game as opposed to being punished, you know, like we were last year."
28:26
And yes, why were you calling plays with 20 seconds on the play clock when you need to run that thing down all the way to 15 seconds?
28:33
So yeah, it was a, uh, a dueling piano of, of mistakes, it felt like, at the end of the game.
28:40
That all being said, those two teams are arguably the two best teams in the country, and we'll, uh, probably see them playing late into January. Two best teams in the country, you think? One and two? I said arguably.
28:51
Arguably. I did not say they are the two best teams. Okay. Yeah, I mean, look, my, I, I've said it all along, and now Oregon, I think, has dropped out of the seven.
28:58
LSU, depending on what they do this weekend, Gil certainly could pop into the seven. But I felt like coming into this year, I thought there were seven teams that could win the title.
29:07
Uh, Miami has looked very good, albeit against weak competition. Notre Dame's defense looks nasty. Have some questions about the offense. Indiana hasn't been tested yet.
29:16
So a couple of these teams haven't really shown who they are yet. Georgia's been destroying teams, and I fully anticipate them to destroy Arkansas this weekend. So yeah, I, I still think
29:29
m- uh, you know, the, the story is out on these teams. I think right now Ohio State, to me, ever so slightly is still the best team in the country, just by a very razor margin there.
29:40
And, and we'll see how it, how it all plays out, 'cause Ohio State's schedule is, is ruthless. LSU, Ole Miss marquee matchup this weekend. The return of Lane Kiffin. Much has been made of this.
29:51
LSU Tigers, three-point road favorites. How do you see this?
29:55
Yeah, I mean, look, this game has the makings for for it all, and hopefully there's not any crazy shenanigans, just typical college shenanigans where it's loud and, you know, chants or whatever.
30:06
Let's not do anything stupid down there. You know, I look at this game from where we were in the game of the year line to where we are now, and game of the year line was Ole Miss minus two, and now it's LSU minus three.
30:18
Now- Hmm... LSU really showed how impressive they can be in that win over Clemson. But early season you gotta ask yourself, okay, was that LSU or was that Clemson? Maybe the answer's yes, both of those.
30:33
That's very possible that Clemson is very down and LSU is much better than we anticipated. Ole Miss had a very challenging game in week one. Uh, they get the win, they don't get the cover against Louisville on a neutral.
30:47
I'm a little bit higher on Louisville than most, I would say, out there. And Louisville's got a big game this weekend against SMU.
30:53
So all that being said, I, I'm gonna land on Ole Miss plus three, and if LSU goes in to Vaught-Hemingway Stam- uh, St- Stadium and takes care of business and covers this number, then we gotta readjust.
31:05
But you're giving me a five-point adjustment from the game-of-the-year line over the summer.
31:10
I've got, in my opinion, the best quarterback in college football in Trinidad Chambliss on my side, and you've got all of the pomp and circumstance r- uh, behind it.
31:19
So I'm gonna take Ole Miss here, plus the points, at home in this crazy environment, and, uh, we'll see how it plays out because, you know, look, anything under three, I probably would've left it alone, but once we got to three, I had to look at Ole Miss here in this spot.
31:32
We should do a deep dive on pomp and circumstance at some point also. It's one of those odd English phrases. Yeah, it is. You got your circumstance- I, I'll get that one...
31:40
you got your pomp I feel like we've done this one before, though. Have we? Oh, okay. Yeah, it's been a while, but I think we have. Sorry, Tim. Sorry to, sorry, sorry to sidetrack there. Okay.
31:47
That's that Landon education coming out right there- That-... from you. I don't know... bingo bango. Where'd you go? Oh. Where'd you go? I went to the heights. Yeah. Originates from Othello.
31:56
I think that we, I think we played you at some point. What's that? Originates... It's a Shakespeare. Oh, yeah. We- Originates from Othello Oh, is it? Yeah. Oh, that's right. Okay. There you go. My bad. And now you know.
32:04
Ti... Dun, dun, dun, dun. Tim, what else did you land on in college football this weekend? Uh, we could talk a little bit about, uh, Notre Dame, Michigan State here just briefly. Um, you know, Notre Dame 2-0 ATS.
32:20
They are on a mission right now. Word on the street, could see some rain Saturday night in South Bend. Uh, total 52, 52 and a half. I'm gonna go under in this game.
32:30
Um, I do think Notre Dame's defense is at a elite level, but I think the offense has got some questions. If I'm Pat Fitzgerald, who, by the way, historically has fared well, uh, at Notre Dame Stadium as a player.
32:42
1995, I believe he was a 28-point underdog, and they went in there and beat the Irish back in '95, 17 to 15. Also, his Pat's Cats at Northwestern beat Notre Dame as well.
32:54
I think if you're Michigan State, you're gonna try to play keep away, you're gonna try to slow this game down. So I could see this being kind of an ugly 38 to 10, 38-14 type of game.
33:04
So, uh, would rather not 38-14, 'cause that would be a big time sweat. A couple other that interest me here, uh, as we kinda get close on time here. I, I'm gonna take the 17 with Kentucky on the road at Texas A&M.
33:16
I think a little bit of a look-ahead spot here for Texas A&M with LSU on deck.
33:20
And also, you know, Texas A&M ended up winning by four touchdowns last week against Arizona State, but guys, they actually got outgained in that game, so maybe a little bit of a box score fraud.
33:32
So we'll see how this one plays out. Make sure you get the 17. I know Circa's sitting at 16 and a half. I think there are still 17s out there. And then lastly,
33:40
I haven't gotten there yet, but I think the Maryland, Virginia Tech game is fascinating. With James Franklin and whole press conference fiasco with the, "Hey, Mike. Hey, Mike. Hey, Mike."
33:51
Um, I think these two coaches, Locksley and Franklin, I don't think, I know they do not like each other. Uh, I think this is a little bit of an overreaction so far to Virginia Tech and their early success.
34:03
So I'm looking here at the home dog. Haven't bet it yet. Maybe we get the three and a half, but I'm gonna look long and hard at the home dog here against Virginia Tech.
34:12
Maryland plus three against the Hokies at, I guess they're not called... They haven't called it Byrd Stadium in a long time, Gil. Yeah. So whatever they're calling it there- It's a long-... on the campus of Maryland.
34:21
It'll always be Byrd Stadium to us, that's for sure. Real quick, yes or no answer. Oregon makes the College Football Playoff or not? No. No. No. Okay. Tim, thank you. We'll look for you on Prime Time tonight.
34:33
Appreciate it. All right. See you guys. Tim Murray. College Football Betting Podcast three times a week. College Football Tailgate Show on the weekend as well.
34:41
Coming back, we promised it yesterday, World Series and Super Bowl match-ups next on The Numbers Game. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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35:40
[upbeat music] The Numbers Game on Betzen, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game.
35:56
Live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander. Kelly Midland in the house. We get tweets reading the book Harry Potter. Huh. If that- Oh! If that is your real name. Really? Harry. Harry Potter 1905.
36:09
That was Hogwarts.
36:09
Gil, all the guys couldn't stop talking about how, uh, VAR would call back a goal because the player's offside by a hair in soccer, which is the right call regardless of the margins, but these NFL referees would watch the replay for, what, 90 minutes and still make the wrong call?
36:22
Yeah, you're probably right about that in many cases. Mako, Shades of Mako, "You won't sneak in a sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear 14 times this segment." No, I will not.
36:32
Bobtimus Prime, "But Aikman's crutch is as good as any crutch in the crutch storeroom at the crutch factory."
36:37
[laughs] Mako also shouting out Real Nicks for his, uh, for his tweet earlier about, uh, the show being as good as anyone at Visa and as good as anyone at Visa and as good as anyone.
36:46
Um, Michael Burns, "Did you say Jiminy Glick was a Bears quarterback earlier?" [laughs] By the way, Jiminy Glick, Martin, Martin Short. That his name, right? Martin Short? Yeah, yeah, yeah. As Jiminy Glick.
36:57
Is that- The, the fake talk show host, Jiminy Glick. No, was that the name? Jiminy Glick, yes. Okay. I remember Glick. Is one of the funniest- Yeah, it was... things ever. Didn't they, like, didn't they do a full show?
37:08
Yes. He, there was a 30-minute on, on E! or Comedy Central, one of those networks. It did not last long though, right? I was obsessed with it. Obsessed with it. Did, did it last more than, like, one season? No. Okay.
37:18
I was gonna s- No... Like, I remember it, but very- There's-... very little of it... among his best work. Oh, E! Is he still around? Are they still doing things? E!? I have no idea. Yeah, me either. Jack Olequire.
37:29
Probably. Gil, Gil and Kelly, "Jimmy and I really enjoyed shooting the poop with you and Todd last week at South Point after your tennis match.
37:35
Now I have no way to replay that conversation, but pretty sure Todd told us at least 14 times how he beat you. Great time. [laughs] Thanks." Yes, he probably did. Mm.
37:42
And Gordon Dye, "Gil, you've probably mentioned ego 14 times in a segment or two." Yeah, but that's not a crutch. I also mentioned Jarden Alvarez- Yeah, that doesn't count... probably 14 times.
37:49
That's just, that's just names of content. Can I give you one of my crutches that now you'll never be able to unhear? Oh, no, I don't know if I, if I should hear this. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, maybe I shouldn't.
37:57
Well, I say, "By the way," a lot. Oh, and I know that one. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I say that a lot. I don't know if that's- That's crutch-y. But it's not as, but it's not as bad as what Aikman does.
38:09
No, no, no, not yet, not- Yeah. You, okay, fine. You have a bit of a crutch transition. You use that- I do... you use that to add on things- I do... or to transition things. That's, that's okay.
38:18
Now, what am I gonna replace that with? Now that I've said it out loud, what am I gonna replace it with? I don't know. But, like, the one- Parent- parenthetical aside. The one, the one, actually- [laughs]...
38:27
one of the worst things that we do here, I, and I think I can speak for, for us- Yeah...
38:31
and other shows at VSAN, is we get way too excited when we actually do, like, a good tease, then we have to call out it's a good tease. You kind of ruined it's a tease. You, you know who's the best teaser at the network?
38:40
It's- Mitch Moss... Mitch Moss. Mitch Moss, yeah. Mitch Moss. Best, best teaser into a- Mm-hmm... a subsequent, uh, segment. Scotty, "Nomo FOMO YOLO POV.
38:50
In an industry full of varying opinions, I have something we likely all agree on. The intro voice that says a numbers game on Visa needs to be returned and remained to Brent Musburger. Legendary voice.
38:57
Please and thank you." Yeah. Well, Scotty, all I have to say to that is, well... And Buddhist Man, "As someone whose schedule gravitated to listening to the radio between 10:00 AM to 12 noon, I went from Mr.
39:09
Tony to Coward to Lebatard, to finding a budding former Slow Jamz DJ on a pop-up gambling satellite radio network. The 27 Yankees of sports broadcasters." Wow. Thank you, Buddhist. That's very nice of you.
39:21
We got more tweets coming up. Okay, we promised this yesterday. We didn't really promise it. I brought it up and I suggested to Kelly, "Hey, we should do this tomorrow." Kelly's like, "Oh, great. Thanks, Gil."
39:30
No, no, no, no. Whoa, whoa, whoa. You real- you, uh, you really want the, uh, the, what, internal dialogue? 'Cause it's, 'cause it's a lot of work for you. Internal dialogue is we brought up Super Bowl first. Oh, yeah.
39:39
Yeah. No problem. Yeah. Really easy. No. I know it. No. [laughs] I know, I know it. I know exactly where Super Bowl finalists are on DraftKings. Oh. In order, by odds.
39:48
And then later in the show, Gil's like, "You know what? Let's do World Series, too." And then I'm like, "No." Thank you very much. That, that was me after that one. Thank you very much.
39:54
Because sure enough, for about 30 sec- this is where- Kelly actually has to do some work, so he doesn't like it [laughs] I'm gonna, like, I'm gonna crush people and also compliment people. Yeah.
40:02
Say, shout out to MGM for being the only book, the only book that- Yes... has these up period of, like, the eight... I think I shopped- Shout out BetMGM... eight books. For real. Probably five or six in Vegas.
40:14
I checked DraftKings, I dra- ch- uh, checked FanDuel. Nobody had these up. I discovered the same thing.
40:19
Now, you could, uh, as everybody will tweet us, yes, you could parlay probably a DraftKings and FanDuel, the league winners. Mm-hmm. That's fine, but you can't do that at every Vegas book here in town.
40:28
And then Super Bowl. Super Bowl, once we get there, how many books, just one week into the season, do you think that I went through that had Super Bowl fin- uh, match-ups? MGM was the only one, right?
40:40
DraftKings, your only one with Super Bowl match-ups. Oh, and they, oh, that's right. And they did not have World Series when I looked. They had it, they had the one- No, they do now. Oh, they do now.
40:47
Yeah, they did this morning. Yeah. Oh, when I looked yesterday, they had one but not the other. Well, getting to the, cutting to the chase. World Series exact match-ups. Sorry about Kelly's problems. [laughs] Yeah.
40:56
Anything else you wanna vent about? Nah, I'm good. I'm good.
40:59
I should just make up stuff to, like, do tomorrow that will cause Kelly the most amount of- No, it was a little chilly in the studio, so I went and, uh, I handled that during Tim's, uh, interview.
41:06
[laughs] World Series exact match-ups. Hey, look. Look, kids. Yankees Dodgers is your short shot, plus 750. Rays, who are often neglected, often overlooked. Rays Dodgers eight to one. Okay, wait, real quick.
41:21
I love that you said that. Yeah. You know what I noticed from putting this together today? That we did this about a little over two weeks ago. We did this a little over two weeks ago.
41:30
Yankees Dodgers was eight to one when we did it back then. They were the favorite, okay? So barely moved. Mm-hmm. A lot more Rays suddenly at the top now.
41:39
Yeah, because- 'Cause now it's, we're far enough into the season, right? They sustained it. Yeah. Yeah, we have to take it as reality at this point. Um, it's all Dodgers. The first five combos all feature the Dodgers.
41:48
So you basically have five of six potential AL playoff teams paired with the Dodgers- Yeah... one through five. It's the Yankees at plus 750 versus the Dodgers. It's the Rays versus the Dodgers at eight to one.
41:59
Astros Dodgers, Red Sox Dodgers, 13 to one respectively. White Sox Dodgers, 14 to one. Guardians Dodgers, in case you're wondering, is 30 to one. Blue Jays Dodgers, even shorter than that at 28 to one.
42:10
Uh, then it's the Brewers brigade. You don't get to a non-Dodgers Brewers match-up for the World Series until 33 to one when you see Phillies Yankees. The one that I like more than any,
42:27
I think if I were to bet this, full disclosure, I have not bet this yet, is the Red Sox and the Phillies, which I see at, if I'm looking correctly, 50 to one?
42:41
Red Sox, Dodgers, uh, what, Red Sox, Phillies, pardon me, 50 to 1. My reasoning again is- Yeah, 50...
42:46
Red Sox with Garrett Crochet coming back and going, being put in the bullpen are going to have in whatever order they decide, whether it's Whitlock,
42:58
Crochet, Chapman, but I'm gonna guess it's gonna be Crochet, Whitlock, Chapman. They'll probably keep the 8-9 intact, but whatever order, right?
43:06
They are essentially doing the 2015 Kansas City Royals thing of Herrera, Holland, and Davis. Not that order. Herrera, Davis, Holland I believe it was at the time, where you're shortening a baseball game to six innings.
43:18
If the Red Sox can have a lead after six innings, and by the way, they can use Crochet o- otherwise also, right?
43:26
They can use him for, hey, if a starter messes up early, maybe we decide to play it differently and throw him in. However they decide to go, the, the plan is he's, he's gonna be in the bullpen.
43:37
So if you can shorten games to six innings, the Red Sox in the postseason become this beast that I think I would bet on to get to the World Series. I'm not interested in exact, I'm just talking about match-ups here.
43:49
Phillies to me, you know, it's the starting pitching, right? It's the fact that it's, you know, Wheeler and Sanchez. Sanchez, Wheeler, and I guess, you know, Lusardo will come back off the IL.
44:05
And then I guess there's Nola too, though I'm not really a Nola guy. But to me, the, the Phillies bats are the ones that are the most combustible- Mm-hmm... also in all of this.
44:15
So Red Sox, Phillies, 50 to 1 is the one that I would bet on. I must say this about the Phillies, though, and this is, this is sort of the sneaky thing that's been happening in, in the Major League Baseball races.
44:23
The wild card race in the National League- Yeah... like the Cubs could still, sorry about this, Drew Bajtal. The Cubs could still miss the playoffs.
44:31
The Phillies could still miss the playoffs if the Diamondbacks went on a crazy run here at the end and one of those two teams swooned.
44:38
Right now, the Cubs have a four-game lead over the D-Backs, who are the one team on the outside looking in that has a realistic shot. Phillies have a, a three and a half game lead over the D-Backs.
44:47
Padres have a two and a half game lead. So right now it does look like it's Cubs, Phillies, and Padres, but you never know with just enough runway left in the season.
44:55
But for me, the World Series match-up I would bet is Red Sox, Phillies for the most bang for my buck. I do completely agree with the fact that the Yankees, Dodgers should be the short shot, though.
45:03
How much do you think those odds will move once the playoff field is set and the Phillies are in? Oh, it'll move. It'll move a little bit because, uh, let's put it this way.
45:15
I think- I mean, they're like 17 to 1 to miss, so, like, I wouldn't think it moves a ton, but it has to move a little bit, right? Well, well, here's the deal. If, if the Diamondbacks make no move or even drift,
45:26
these odds are going to change within the next week or so. Right. No, I know. If it stays as is, right, or, or if it, if it gets tighter, then they will not move, right?
45:35
'Cause it will just be there's certain amount of uncertainty- Yeah... still.
45:39
So I ask that because I think if you were really going to bet this, I think I'd either, like, I'd wait till it gets more chaotic and you get a longer number, or I'd wait till it's just, like, we, you know for sure they're in.
45:51
Okay. I- I think that's what I'd- I'm just telling you that's what I'd bet now. Yeah, yeah. How about you? Which way would you bet?
45:56
I, I want, well, I'm thinking about it that way because I would want to include the Phillies too. I don't, I have no idea with the American League, though. I really don't.
46:02
I think I would go Phillies, Yankees, and that price is too short. It's boring. I would probably just end up betting Phillies to win the NL. We'll do the, uh, Super Bowl match-up- Yeah, we'll get to that...
46:10
a little later. No rush. This just in, only one week of football has been played, so it's a little bit of a different conversation. Yeah. But, you know, maybe there's something, uh, maybe there's something there.
46:18
We're gonna talk with Will Hill next hour, Paul Spohrer, Nick Whelan still to come on the show. Got a whole bunch to get to. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026 | Hour 3
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