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Sep 11, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
45:51
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Hour number three of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 189. It is Gil Alexander.
0:27
Kelly is behind the glass because, ladies and gentlemen, this time each and every Friday, 11:00 A- no, no, let me get that right, 12:00 noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific, it's time for Fezzik Fridays. Let's go.
0:40
Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
0:48
Starring the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, Steve Fezzik. He's won multiple contests since. Steve Fezzik joins us now in studio.
0:55
Follow him on Twitter at your own peril, @FezzikSports. What's happening, man? So a tumultuous 72 hours with Mr. Ed Golden over at Razz, but I think we're good now. Mm-hmm.
1:06
So Ed Golden, he'd be, like, my number two guy to put into the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, but I'd put in Dr. Bob first and then Ed Golden, you know.
1:14
And w- w- I know this is a recurring theme, so I won't spend a lot of time on it. I was thinking about this. If Dr. Bob or, or Ed Golden had been on one of these sports books and was running it- Yes...
1:24
with their expertise, the other oddsmakers would just be, like, ridiculed. Like, why weren't we doing this before? Because, like, can you imagine MGM's dealing 13 on this game and everybody else is dealing 15.
1:36
You know, they're dealing, like, a total at 54. Everyone's else is at 56 and a half. Like, no other sportsbook does this. You know why, Gil?
1:44
Because they tried, and when they put their opinions on games, they got their butts kicked 'cause they were wrong so often. What, what happened there? Were their butts kicked, like visual? They got their butts kicked.
1:52
Okay. Like, like, like, like- Scary...
1:53
like, there's a reason, like, foot soldiers, they all line up and they copy everyone else's numbers bec- it's not because they don't wanna be different, but they've learned the hot stove.
2:02
They've learned, oh, if I make the total 55 when every, and because I like the over, and everyone else says 54, [gasps] it's raining, and I just get, and, and I just get smashed by the sharper bettors versus the bookmaker.
2:14
So it's just, it's just ludicrous. I mean, Dr. Bob and Ed Golden are five times better than the best bookmaker in, in Vegas the past five years, and everyone knows this.
2:23
Everyone knows this, except for the people that put people in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame. I love your passion for this subject, I do, and I agr- I agree with you about Bob and G- and Ed should both be in there.
2:33
Everyone agrees. Yeah. There's no one super ultra sharp that disagrees with me. Now, tons of people disagree with me, but they're just mainstream people.
2:42
Uh, let's get to last night's game because I, I, you know, I put out in the, on their group check, group text exchange. I was like, "Anybody think it was weird how the Rams ended that game?
2:53
They had the ball with a short field. I know they weren't gonna win the game, but they put in Stetson Bennett. They had all three timeouts.
2:58
They got within the t- they got inside the 20 yard line, for God's sakes, and they just sort of just, like, piddled the game away and just like, 'Oh, whatever, we're done.'"
3:04
Eddie Piñeiro misses a field goal down- Yeah... 20. Yeah. That's three scores. You've got the greatest show on turf. You never, you never... Well, not exactly. [laughs] But you never know, right?
3:12
And your response was pretty interesting, which was you just came back with, "Maybe the Rams just didn't care about this game from the beginning." I actually think it was a great strategy for the Rams.
3:22
When you think about it, especially with the way the game played out, everyone's like, "Oh, the Rams really dropped the ball." You know what? The Rams m- likely would've lost the game anyways. The Niners were all in.
3:32
They did their kumbaya. They spent the week with the wallabies, you know, getting acclimated and everything else, all in for this game. And the Rams are like, "Uh, it's a 17-game season.
3:42
Let's not mess up our season by going to Australia, eh, and spending a week and messing everything up. We'll just wing it. [laughs] We'll come in, hope for the best."
3:51
And, and I heard a lot of people, it's funny, I heard a lot of people say, "Well, clearly they did the wrong thing," but it was only 10% of the result. The Rams had problems. Now wait, wait, which is it?
4:01
Is it that they did the wrong thing? I think, I think they may well have done the right thing long-term. Yeah. And they just wrote off the game. It's fine. You know, it's one, it's one game.
4:09
I know it's a division game, and that's a problem, but, um, I tell you this, going forward, the Rams, I know it was 72 hours of you know what, you know?
4:18
But, uh, but it's only 72 hours lost from their lives, and now they can get back to winning football. Um, I, I, yeah, I mean, I've said all along, I believe the way back is gonna be a problem for the Niners.
4:29
They do get the, the good fortune of playing the Dolphins. Interestingly, by the way, the Niners asked to get the Monday night game after this one. They were denied, and the Rams ended up with it. Hmm.
4:40
Um, but I'm with you on, on, on everything. We, we will never know the answer to how much the travel affected the outcome. We just won't. The sample size is not big enough period.
4:48
Yeah, it's, it's really hard with the sample size.
4:49
You know, the one thing, and I'm not past posting, I did say this, I said, "You know, I wonder," I'm kinda kicking myself for not giving it out, that it sure seems like the second half, major advantage to the Niners, and that, that's how the game wound up playing out.
5:03
So I'm like, "Why didn't I give that up?" Because, um, you know, adrenaline, you show up, boom, you know, you haven't had enough s- sleep. You're like a zombie. Um, and
5:14
y- you gut it out to start the game, but then at some point, especially if the game's not going so well, it's like the, the effects of it, you know, probably really compromised the Rams' second half.
5:23
Can I, can I have a point of contention with you and Crack? 'Cause both you and Crack said the same thing after the Seahawks game, which is, "No one shoulda lost on this number, the fell three, da, da, da, da, da, da."
5:33
You guys are big on saying that.
5:35
Um, okay, it ignores, right, that the Seahawks' starting quarterback w- got knocked out, their Super Bowl-winning quarterback got knocked out after five plays, and Crack's response was, "Well, the result is the result," which I'm sure is what your response is, too.
5:47
That's fine that you guys get to say that, you know, uh, apart from actual details of the game and the fact that the Seahawks should've covered it 50 times with all the different things that happened. Mm-hmm.
5:58
That my problem with guys like, like you guys who, when you say that kind of thing is I never hear from you when it doesn't work out that way.
6:05
So the, the, you guys have this free role on that kind of thing, and I just find it, like, intellectually, uh, not dishonest, but almost, like, this, this brash arrogance that really isn't rooted in any fact.
6:17
Oh, eh, eh, slow down, cowboy. No- Brash... it's true. Brad, no, you're wrong. Brash. You're, you're, you're, it's your brash arrogance. Have you heard yourself on Twitter? You're brash.
6:25
No, av- on Twitter, yes, but it's your brash arrogance. I'm gonna throw you under the bus here, where, "I'm Gil Alexander, and I'm a big handicapper- [laughs]...
6:33
and I, and Seattle's the right side," and they were the right side. Of course they were. I 100% agree. Of course they were.
6:38
But what you, but you completely neglected the fact that the marketplace was hitting and hitting New England hard for whatever reason. You should not have lost. You should not have given up minus three and a half.
6:49
Do you understand? Did, did you listen to the last part of what I said, brash man, pounding your chest? The fact is you only talk about it when it works out in your favor.
6:55
If you can come in here and talk about all the times that you, you were smarty pants with this and it didn't work out for you, then you're okay. But guess what? N- We never hear from you when that happens.
7:02
Yeah, but you're mi- you're, you're missing the point. No, I'm not. You are only, your, your free rolling this. I'm, I'm, I'm not debating, no, I'm not debating whether Seattle was right or not.
7:08
I'm just saying it was obvious. And we talked about this on the Megapod when, when, when you laid minus three and a half with Will, and I'm like, "Guys, this thing is, this, this number's dropping. It's 3.25.
7:17
We're not gonna win laying three and a half." And you're right, it's one instance. It's one specific instance. Exactly. But I, I would, I would like... It, it's just my, my style. I would say, "You know what?
7:25
We'll be cool." I know it's your style. "We'll wait. We won't play it in contests, and we'll just lay three on game day." Minus three Seattle was clearly the right side. Like, accolades.
7:33
At minus three and a half Seattle was the right side after we watched the game. I agree with you. Your handicap was very good. Okay. You, you like to talk about the clear right side. You have one in the NFL this Sunday.
7:42
You say Houston is the clear right side against Buffalo. Well, and I might look stupid here, because the market is not embracing Houston. What's this?
7:50
[laughs] I, so I could bet Houston plus one and a half at reduced vig today at one of the, a- a- a- at, at one of the betting exchanges. And I'm like, "What is going on?" Josh Allen always plays terrible against Houston.
8:01
We wanna play dogs week one. Um, Houston should be a slight favorite. I, I know the good doctor thinks Houston should be a slight favorite.
8:09
I think Houston should be a slight favorite, so, um, Houston plus one half's widely available. Put me down- [laughs]... for the Houston Texans. Put 'em down. Does that mean you bet it?
8:18
I, I bet plus one half this morning. Okay. Yeah. All right. It, it's, and it's, it's widely available. You're able to get it without even laying minus 110. Yeah.
8:24
Uh, let's talk about the marquee match of college football, Ohio State and Texas. Ohio State and Texas, do you have a play on this? Yeah, so I'm opposite Raz here, and this is, this'll be controversial.
8:34
[laughs] Shocker, controversy.
8:36
So Raz likes Texas Ohio State over, and I'm sure all the analytics say over, but early in the season when a game's a line pick 'em and it's a critically important game, I've seen this movie so many times where both teams are just too conservative.
8:51
It's fourth and one from midfield. They punt instead of going for it. They don't... The highly leveraged players, they tend to just not be as aggressive as they should be.
9:02
So I think Raz is, is totally correct, you know, in the analytics that the number should be in the low 50s.
9:07
I just think the, that the play calling is gonna be too conservative by both coaches, so I'm looking at under the 49. All right. What did you end up doing with contests?
9:15
All right, well, [laughs] I got my, I, I got my 15,000 of hats. How do we feel about the, uh, color on the Circa Millions hat this year?
9:22
So I think I, in pre-production, was it Kelly that said, "Boy, Circa's finally [laughs] ran out of good colors"? [laughs] We've, we've waited enough years where they finally ran into a bad color.
9:32
Yeah, we're gonna have magenta. Yeah. You know, we're gonna be like, like, like, what, what's the tennis player's name that's in the semifinals? Tafleo? What's, what's his name? Thiafoe?
9:39
Thiafoe was wearing- Taflea [laughs]... he looked like a big, a, a big peach pumpkin [laughs] the other night. It's like- He looks, uh, he can wear it. I couldn't wear it. He looks great in it.
9:47
I, great, he does, but I'm, I'm like, I guess all the other... He ran out [laughs] of all his blue and, and white outfits and he's gonna wear that. Um, but the, um,
9:57
I, I had to get in on Circa and, and so I wanna ask you, what percentage... I have, I don't know what the answer is. I would say 1.8% of the people lost last night playing on- We're guessing... the Rams. We're guessing.
10:07
I'm just guessing. Yeah. You know what? And here's the key, before Mike Palm jumps all over me. I could be completely wrong. It could be 4%, as high as 4%. It could be as low as 1%, okay? It could be as low as.8%.
10:19
We won't know till the deadline. We won't know. Now, now why would people play the Ram? Just because they knew they could, they could re-up. I don't care if they re-up.
10:27
I actually am happy they re-up, because anyone who played the Rams in their first go around probably isn't a good contestant anyways. [laughs] So I'd like them to re-up a million times.
10:35
But the, the point is, let's say it's, let's be conservative and say it's one and, one and a half percent. Seems, uh, maybe something like that.
10:42
That's the same as Derek coming on, "Add 1.5% to the Circa Survivor," [laughs] you know, "pool." But you make a good point about that, 'cause if it's stated that way, people get it for some reason.
10:52
And it's the same exact thing. Right, right. Then, it'd, it'd be like Derek said, "We're gonna roll one die and whatever number it c- comes up, we're gonna divide by two.
11:01
If we roll a four, we're gonna put 2% extra in- into the pool. If we roll a six, 3%, if we roll a one, only.5%."
11:07
But just that alone, the idea of we talk about some people forget to put their picks, and that certainly will happen, and that's an overlay, well, this is obviously someone took the Rams. Okay.
11:18
You know, heck, probably someone took the Niners, right? [laughs] So how many millions and how many Survivor? I did five Survivor, 10 millions. I'm way better at millions.
11:25
So that's the problem with Survivor is I'm just not nearly as good at it as the best people in the world who, like, you know, live and breathe and map everything. But I love the Gil Alexander North Star.
11:36
You know, "Hey, I'll, I'll play the Steelers. I'll play the Chargers. I'll play the Jaguars. I'll play one of the obvious close to optimal, you know, picks." Yeah. Um, here are another contests.
11:47
We'll find out the, uh, the breadth of that.
11:49
Uh, Stevie's got a bunch to say also beyond that, including a little 9/11 note as well, and a whole bunch of unders, season win totals already added from Steve next on The Numbers Game.
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12:53
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13:11
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13:15
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13:24
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13:29
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13:39
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets made of the book. Torch D., the one who put the sad in your panties, "Here's my survivor strategy this year.
13:50
I bought a complete set of mini NFL helmets. I put them onto a tray and present it to my two-year-old daughter. Whatever she picks, I pick. Rolling with the Bengals week one.
13:58
I suppose they do have the coolest looking helmet." Well done by the daughter.
14:02
Steve Cohen, not the, uh, Steve Cohen who, uh, owns the Mets or our Steve Cohen here, who says, "Gil, hoping not to hear you say the C word, AKA carnage, on Monday." Yeah. Yeah, we gotta, we gotta stop with that word.
14:14
I, I'm, I'm, I'm totally responsible as well for it. Dub Sports, "By far one of my favorite segments of the week. Hey, ask Steve for me how he feels about betting alt numbers by a point max. I'm aware of her moving...
14:25
I, I'm aware even moving it just a click can be costly, but just wondering what he thinks." Hate the one-point alt numbers. The reason being is, like, hey, I woke up, it's 2026.
14:36
There's all these, uh, prediction markets, betting exchanges. You can play minus 101 in each direction. All right? Literally minus 101. We can't do that on the, on the alt markets. Those
14:48
op- options aren't available, so now you're laying straddles of oftentimes minus 115 in each direction. So you're, you're, you're, you're basically playing into s- a so much more difficult to beat marketplace.
14:59
You'd almost always be better off just playing the primary market. Johnny Ringo, "Best segment ever. Accountability is what is missing in this world." You know what? Accountability is what's miss- I, I'll go back.
15:10
I'm gonna die on this hill. He's talking about you, Steve. He's talking about you. Oh. Yeah. It's still, still a great point. Yeah. [laughs] I mean, the point... So how many people, like, like, what's... What, what...
15:18
You ask people, "What's your record?" And they're like, "Oh, well, I've, I was 22 and 9 on, on totals when I gave out unders in the ACC." It's just a bunch of gobblygook nonsense. No, what...
15:29
Like, all your plays that you gave out one year, three year, five year, widely available numbers, "What's your record?" I can't even get people to answer this question. Why are you just coming to Jesus on this now? Why?
15:39
'Cause you've been in that world for years and years and years. Why are you just figuring this out now? #ostrich. [laughs] #headinthe sand. #stupidpheasant. That's your defense?
15:50
[laughs] Ostrich, head in the sand, stupid pheasant? It is. Uh, Bullet Godfrey. I don't know how this one got in there. He says, "This current Fez dye job has him looking like William Macy." Well, that doesn't seem nice.
15:59
My goodness, you know, this hateful stuff on- Oh... on, like, physical appearance. They, they really don't like it. You know what?
16:03
For all those, like, who have sons and daughters and they're, like, in junior high school, talk to your kids and, and don't make fun of how anybody looks. That's not right. That's hateful. Dr.
16:13
Van Nostrand, "Did I just hear Fez say he's not being brash? I love him, but Twitter Fez is like General Patton brash." Here's one for you. DPAC 48's on your side.
16:22
He says, "I can't believe I'm defending Steve on this one, but how many times has he come in and gave a game and the number has moved against him and he's admitted he's gotten the worst of it?
16:29
He could have easily gave another play and never even mentioned he was." Oh, that's a different subject. I agree with you on that, DPAC, uh, because you and I both share this.
16:36
We are highly annoyed at the people who never get the worst of the number. Y- yeah, and, and- Never... and I love people- Yeah...
16:43
that come out and say, "Oh, by the way, I took, I took the Commanders to, to have a good year, and now I'm, like, like, not looking so good," and they're honest and open about it. It happens- I said the same thing...
16:53
it happens to all of us- Yeah... where we get the worst of the number and, like, and, and, like, this has happened to me before. Like, literally, I'm working with my friend Dan in Huntington Beach, all right?
17:02
And, and he's, he's a s- college football specialist, and a total comes up, and he's like, he's ready to pounce on it, and he's like, "We're, we're gonna play the South Florida under 51 and a half.
17:10
But whatever they open, if it g- if it's north of 50," this, this happened this week, "We're going under." Right? So they open 51, bang, we play under 51.
17:17
Okay, Circa goes to 49, foot soldiers fall in line, everybody comes 49. It goes down to 48, and then what's this? Like, someone's doing a show like, "Oh, I got South Florida under 51." It's like, "No, you didn't."
17:28
[laughs] Because we were there, and it was our primary game, and we smacked it within eight seconds. We got the 51, and it was the only one in the world, so how the heck did you get 51? It just, it, like...
17:41
And they saw it because they saw the opener. Yeah. Right? And, like, they, "Well, that means..." And they, and they just wanna, like, s- sound smart.
17:47
It, and people do this all the time, and I'm like, I, I literally wanna say, "Show me the tickets." I'm so frustrated. It's, uh... And I famously said both these first two games, I got the worst of both numbers.
17:56
Welcome back, NFL. I got the worst on the Seahawks, I got the worst on the Niners. You should be given an immediate enormous promotion.
18:02
You should be running the place because, like, like, like, like, like, like- [laughs]... and solve this whole... Like, like, and, and let me, let me caveat. If Gil Alexander gives out Emma minus 120, um-...
18:12
uh, you know, to the subscribers, and then the next morning it's minus 140, and you say, "I have Emma in my back pocket minus 120. I am so cool and happy with that," that's spot on. But you can't just, like, like- No...
18:23
like, g- like, go g- go to your Carbone, go to your 2,000-calorie dinner- Sorry...
18:27
with, with Wishnev, you know, [laughs] sleep, g- g- g- just, well, you don't get any sleep, and then come in and say, "Oh, by the way, on Pocket, I got minus 120." [laughs] Like, but what, where?
18:36
Where was the disclosure? Anyone can c- anyone can look and say, "I got the Steelers minus two and a half. Yeah, I got the good number against Atlanta." [laughs] On this subject, you and I are completely aligned.
18:46
By the way, last one here, Pittsburgh Billy, who says, uh, "Can I go under 1.5% on contestants that took the Rams? I think there will be more 'no entries' than Rams picks."
18:55
Oh, I'll take Rams against no entries for, I'll, I'll lay 1,000 on that. Let me know. Brian's Breaking News and Intel, "Calling out Fezzik's BS, music to my ears. Thank you, Gil." Wow. BS? That doesn't seem nice.
19:06
Uh, okay. You might disagree with me, but it's not BS. Wait a minute. But, but- I mean, it's, we, we can have a discussion. I'm wrong all the time, but it's rarely BS. No, no, you're not, you, you, BS is not what you do.
19:15
Uh, okay, so w- beyond, okay, so m- so five survivors, 10 million. You're in other stuff, too, right? You're in the Circa, the Friday Circa Invitational with, with humans? Yeah, so I'm in the Friday Circa Invitational.
19:28
I'm in the College Football West gate. I'll be in the Super Contest West gate. I'll probably enter it three times. Um, that's fine. Um, I'm, Splash Sports. What's this? [laughs] They've got these guarantees.
19:40
We got an even money contest at Splash Sports. They've got, they got a 21 million guaranteed survivor. So, like, Circa's gonna get 28 million in Survivor.
19:48
I don't know if Splash is gonna meet that guarantee at 21 million. Hmm. So I think it's at 12 million. You know, I don't know if you noticed, but the NFL Week 1's about to start.
19:56
[laughs] They can't, you can't enter it once, you know, once Sunday morning hits, so that, that is looking very attractive. Let's go back to the handicapping contest versus survivor.
20:04
Why, uh, more realistic ROI, um, but survivor are, w- in, in the, in the handicapping one, much more difficult in survivor?
20:14
The, it's much more difficult to win in survivor because, um, the logger from eastern Maryland, Darvin Moon, has to have, like, a miracle to get to the main event final table in, in the World Series of Poker.
20:26
But if he plays survivor and he just follows the Gil Alexander North Star of, "I'm gonna take me one of these top five favorites every week," it's a pretty good strategy. Yeah.
20:35
It might even be a plus EV strategy because there's all these yahoos out there that are, like, gonna be releasing on, you know, the Jets-Titans game. You know, the, the, people love to play contrarian.
20:45
To d- you know, just to put things in perspective, and, and I know I'm, this is extreme, if you took, like, a s- six and a half, seven-point favorite on average every week, you got, like, a one in 1,000 chance of navigating around the world and, and getting to the finish line.
21:01
If you took pick 'em on every single play, you have a one in one million chance.
21:06
So it just shows how much harder it is when, as soon as you start stacking even one or two pick 'em type of lines, my goodness, you're never gonna make that back on the other end. Now, the one exception is,
21:18
uh, the pig and the python funneling on a Thanksgiving week, where, like, you're trying to swallow the s- the eight-point favorite, and 60% of the people are taking that, you know, swa- trying to swallow that pig.
21:28
Yes, you can go contrarian then. Uh, okay. I mentioned you have more new NFL adjusted season win totals that you've played. Yeah. Please, what do you got? So let's keep it really simple, okay?
21:40
What we're gonna do is we're gonna take a really lousy organization, a team that has had bad news during the summer, a team that they're cutting in line to bet against in week one.
21:49
So you know everyone, all the sharps are very much down on these teams, and we're just gonna fade them all for their season wins, assuming that the bad week one line move against them is a proxy for future failure [laughs] as the year goes on.
22:02
Uh, I did play the Raiders under six and a half. Brock Bowers news, the Gentty, you know, injury. I'm also adding Atlanta Falcons under seven and a half minus 140. I know there's extra vig here.
22:14
It just turns out you're better off playing the higher number because you don't get taxed nearly as much as what you should. I played the Browns under six and a half minus 190. How are the Browns gonna win seven games?
22:25
I mean- Yeah... Watson, Watson couldn't play quarterback for Florida A&M based upon what I see. Ah. Uh, the Commanders, your Commanders, who I was high on back in May- So was I... no longer.
22:36
Commanders under seven and a half minus 140. Money pouring in on Philadelphia. Remember, divisional dogs are great week one.
22:43
No one wants the Commanders, for good reason, and the Carolina Panthers, this is a little controversial. There is some, some guys I know that like Panthers over, but they've got injuries at running back.
22:53
They've got injuries on the line. I'm going Panthers under the seven and a half minus 160. Um, I talked about this with Felika real briefly, the overreaction to the Miami game. Who, who, what do you believe about that?
23:04
Well, d- to the blow, them blowing- Yes... the, the, I, I, I, I think that you just run the ball up the middle once you're up- I agree... 49-nothing, and like, like, you, you, you, you, you can give your backups
23:16
reps, and they just play smash mouth football. Run the ball right up the middle and, you know, and don't, don't throw the ball when you get in the red zone.
23:21
Also, move the ball between the 20s, get the reps in, and then three straight line plunges. You run, a- a- and, and kick a field goal.
23:28
That's what we'd, that's what we'd like to see happen, but how, is there a betting lesson, though, that this is, this is just the new way that games are played? Yeah, all, all teams are different.
23:37
George is gonna s- keep being conservative, and Blaine Kiffin's gonna pound you. You know, there's certain coaches to follow. Hey, Miami's gonna win the national championship based upon that game. You know why?
23:46
Because I watched the game. I don't ca- I know Florida A&M can't play a lick. Beyond impressed with the quarterback and the, and the receptions that, that the receivers were making.
23:54
That team is chock-full of athleticism. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik
24:13
In studio, as he always is, part of Fezzik Fridays every Friday here on a Numbers Game. @FezzikSports, by the way, on Twitter. God help you if you fo- if you follow this man.
24:21
DMIL3219, "Oh my God, can you get your boy Todd some decent apparel to wear?" Did you see Todd out in the, uh, [laughs] in, in the, in the sports book? Uh, Ryan Thompson, "FYI, to the listeners/tweeters referenced Dr.
24:33
Van Nostrand and Bob Sacamano, Seinfeld characters pronounced Van Nostrand and Sacamano. I'll show myself out." Thank you, Ryan, for the Seinfeld pronunciation guide. I appreciate that. All right, Stevie, couple things.
24:46
One housekeeping item. Oh, please. Yeah. So, so we used to have, like, like, we'd go into, like, these ritzy, ritzy high-end tennis clubs, right? And they'd be mean to Todd, all right?
24:55
And Todd was unhappy about it, and he was like, "They're being mean to me because," and he would postulate a theory. Mm-hmm. And I was like, "They're, no, Todd, they're not being mean to you because of that.
25:06
They're being mean because you look like you're dressed as, as, as a homeless person, you know, in, in the bad area of, of San Diego or Vancouver, um, and it has nothing to do with you or your background or anything like that, in my opinion."
25:22
You know what's beautiful about this? He can't defend himself 'cause he's not on the show right now. He just did. He's yelling. No, he's, he's not on the show. He's not talking. Um, okay, couple things.
25:30
[laughs] One, you're here, by the way, you're here to sign up for contests. You have, like, f- you know, five figures worth of money on you, and yet you're grinding out a $30 advantage slot win over here.
25:41
This is Anthony Curtis 101. Anthony's like, "If you see $5 lying on the ground, you pick it up and it will, it will pay off." So I've just, I walk by a video poker machine. What's this?
25:51
That's an advantage play, [laughs] so I pop in my $20 and I run my money through, so it's just the way that, that, let, and people are like, "That's, the, the..." Think how ludicrous this is.
26:01
Fez, you're putting 15K into these contests and you're, you're, you're, you're basically reaching down to pick up $5 in, in expected value, [laughs] but that's, that's, you know what?
26:10
It all accumulates- It's in your DNA... toward the goal line. Also in your DNA, uh, you drove to the Nevada-California border last night. Why? Oh, this is unbelievable.
26:20
So Splash Sports has these great overlays right now, so I'm, I'm, I'm in on them, and specifically I love the even money pick five contest. But I cannot enter in Nevada, but I can submit in Nevada.
26:32
Don't ask me why, I'm not a lawyer. All right? So I drive to Primm, Nevada, and I'm worried I'm right on the border. Are they gonna geolocate me in the wrong spot, right?
26:42
So I go a good quarter mile into California, and what's th- what's there? It's the lot- it's the California Lottery store. And so it's the one where whenever the California Lottery goes high- Mm-hmm...
26:54
literally these dumbos will drive out- [laughs]... and they'll wait two hours in line to, for a lottery that they have a one in zill- a zillion chance to win- Yeah...
27:02
that has a plus EV, but not after you take out all the taxes and the amortization and everything else. However, now you actually have a huge plus EV.
27:10
That's the optimal place to enter at Splash Sports if you're in Nevada.
27:13
Where are all these tens of thousands of people that are wasting an entire afternoon to buy lottery tickets, why aren't they all driving on I-15 to go to that lottery store to enter this Splash? I can't explain it.
27:25
Hey, uh, could you promote the, uh, the other VSIN shows you're gonna be on this football season where you don't call other people dumbos? Dumbo's one of my copyright things. Okay. You- Copyright Dumbo.
27:36
You're, you're gonna be more in the weeds on the games themselves, right? You're gonna focus. What shows are you gonna be on, besides this one? So- Do you even know? I, I'm gonna be with Scott Steinberg. Okay.
27:45
Every Saturday night, we're still w- hammering out the time. I believe we're gonna be a 9:45, and I'm real exciting, excited. Dr. Chow and I, we're gonna be on Sunday, um, doing the halftime report.
27:57
Uh, that's gonna be this Sunday. I believe we're gonna do it this Sunday with Stormy and JVT. Um, I think- Early g- early games with Stormy and JVT, late games with Matt Brown.
28:04
Yeah, exactly, and I believe that Stormy, with her schedule, is gonna be, um, um, getting the, the pulse from the book at that time, so I think it's gonna be with JVT.
28:14
We're still working out the, you know, the, the, the details. Okay. I'm super excited, you know, about working with, with JVT and with Stormy and with, um, with Matt on the afternoon. Bet you won't call Stormy brash.
28:23
Bet you won't do that on that show. You know what? I, I'm not gonna mention any names, okay? Right. Because Todd is in studio, but there's some people I can be critical pe- of others, and I am just, like- [laughs]...
28:34
so positive about Stormy and, and, and her work. It's just fantastic. She's fantastic. She absolutely is. Um, okay, regarding contests,
28:43
there's someone you wanted to promote that you think is, is really good at what he does, other than Dr. Bob? Yeah, so I don't know him very well.
28:51
Jason Jarvis has just crushed it, and he's in the VSIN Invitational contest here, and when I say he's crushed it, he's been, he's in Circa Millions, and he doesn't have one.
29:01
He has, you'll love this, he has two top 10 finishes in Circa Millions. Oh, wow. That's like the, the, the World Series of Poker Main Event for poker. That's awesome. Making the final table.
29:10
I don't know if he did it i- back to back years. I think he did, but at least two out of, out of the last three years. That's Las Vegas Chris-esque. Exactly. Yeah. Exactly.
29:18
Very much a run like Las Vegas Chris, and here's what you're gonna love about Jason. Jason doesn't even care about Rogue number- All right? He plays the teams that he likes.
29:29
So like, like, yep, had the Niners last night plus three and a half. He doesn't care that the market line was 3.7, so it is beyond impressive. He's not just doing it with skullduggery and good contest strategy.
29:42
He's just picking the right winners. So now, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but, you know, hats off to Jason Jarvis, and if you bought somebody else's NFL package- [laughs]...
29:52
and your, and, and you don't even know who Jason Jarvis is, I'd, I would argue you're probably not looking close enough at who has done the best the last five years. All right, optimal survivor play.
30:01
Let's cut, let's get to, cut it to brass tacks here, whatever that expression is. Get to brass tacks. Who is the optimal survivor play ultimately week one for you?
30:08
I don't know, because I don't know what the, the splits are going to be. I suspect it's gonna be the Chargers, because I think that- Well, you never know what the splits are gonna be. Well- That's the whole game.
30:18
Well, there's, uh, but there's other survivors where you can peek in and see what people have been taking. Yes, you can go to an ESPN or those kinds of things.
30:23
So it's like if, if the Chargers, if more than 40% of the people took the Chargers, I think they, they don't, they become suboptimal.
30:30
If it's below 40%, I'm pretty sure, you know, just, just taking the eight and a half point favorite is the safest way to go. Certainly Jacksonville signs- Con- consensus is 30%, 35%, somewhere in that range.
30:40
Oh, is that right? Yeah. Um, but I do think, like, these Steelers, these sneaky Steelers, I mean, they may charge you 100 bucks for parking. Yeah. [laughs] But they're gonna get the job done.
30:48
[laughs] Um, and they're up to minus five, and the key is they were minus three all week.
30:51
By the way, no one would lay minus five [laughs] on the Steelers unless they're total Dumbo, when they coulda had minus three all summer.
30:58
But the, um, the, but, but, but the k- the key is the Raiders were, like, a good pick, like, like a month ago when the Raiders were minus three and a half and trending upwards. No Brock Bowers, Gentry banged up.
31:09
Do we really wanna invest in a Raiders team that's only gonna win that game 60% of the time? You're like, "Well, this is my only chance to use the Raiders." Good. Don't use them at all.
31:18
There's 20 other perfectly capable teams we can use. So Steelers most optimal-ish? I'm feeling Steelers. Yeah. But Steelers, I, I would go Chargers steel one, Steelers two- Yeah...
31:28
Jacksonville three, and I think Detroit would be the one I'd worry about. I wouldn't use Detroit. I have six entries. I will use some combination of Chargers, Steelers, and Lions.
31:36
Uh, actually not Lions, 'cause there's a consideration later in the week, later in the year. Chargers, Steelers, and I don't know what.
31:43
Now, uh, as far as your value, like right now there'll be some people that lost on the Rams, some people won't submit. Your ticket's worth $1,025, okay? It really doesn't matter.
31:53
As long as you take one of these teams, it m- might be worth 1,040. If you take the very optimal one, it might only be worth 1,030 or 1,020.
32:00
It's all good, unless you do something crazy like you're gonna play the Tennessee Titans or the Jets.
32:05
Then your ticket's probably only, immediately only worth $800, and that's the dead money in the contest, and everyone who wins with the Jets will come back and say, "Fez, you're an idiot.
32:13
I'm in first place," but no one who had the Titans after the Titans lose will, will be heard from. Um, I know it's, uh...
32:21
Listen, we're, you're not often, uh, known for, you know, solemnity here on the show, but if you could, uh- Oh, what? We have a, a solemn subject here with, uh, with 9/11. You wanted to make a point about it- Yes...
32:32
before you left. S- so I was, I hadn't been to New York.
32:35
I'm, I'm from New York, um, f- when I was a, a young boy, but I went back, um, with my son and my wife last summer, and the one thing that I was totally unaware was not just the horrible tragedy 25 years ago, but that it has just continued year after year, the toxicity that was released within the city, people getting sick, staying sick, you know, their entire lives.
32:58
Yeah.
32:58
And people are still dying each and every month from this terrible day and, and, and, and what a terrible thing, and I was just, somehow that had just escaped me, and that's why when you get out, and I'm, the, I don't do enough of this.
33:12
Like, when you actually go to a city, you can learn so much more than just reading on the internet or AI and the like, and it really hit home how this tragedy has just, not, not just the grief, but just the deaths from it have just continued gen- for generations now.
33:27
Were you here in Vegas at the time? I was in Los Angeles. My wife called me. She said, "There's been a terrible accident in Washington." I remember the first message, and then she called me again.
33:38
Then I woke up and saw what was going on. Yeah. Um, obviously Pentagon got hit as well. I, I couldn't reach my mom for a while, but, because all the phones were jammed. Like, I mean, it was just, just amazing.
33:48
Uh, 25 years ago, phones were jammed. Like, you couldn't get through to folks, you know? You're getting pretty emotional here, Steve. Well, I- Yeah... uh, and I moved to Vegas two months later. Yeah.
33:58
I was just wrapping up my career, and I'm thinking to myself, like, I worked, I worked, you know, in, in, in downtown LA in a fairly, you know, not, not a tall building, but a building, you know?
34:08
And, and so I'm thinking, "My God, imagine someone who worked their whole life, you know, they're about to retire- Yeah... and they'd be on the 90th floor of one of those towers." Oh- It's just-...
34:15
it's, it's unspeakable Or someone who's just starting their career. Unspeakable. You know? Yeah. It's awful. S- uh, Stevie, appreciate it. We ran the gamut today. We laughed and we cried. We did it all. Put Dr.
34:28
Bob in the Hall of Fame two years later. Put Ed in, put Ed in, and s- and stop putting bookmakers in. Come on. [laughs] Of the p- can you imagine a poker hall of fame? "Let's, let's put in the poker room managers.
34:40
Hey, this guy invented a poker game. Let's put him into the Hall of Fame." By the way, when we go to commercial, he's still gonna be, he's still gonna have to be- Maybe get Mike Matusow in there.
34:47
[laughs] Alo Foiste, let's go. [upbeat rock music] Steve Fezzik, everybody. Coming back, we'll recap the bets next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
34:55
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Think you're better than the experts?
35:13
Now's your chance to prove it. The Edge Boost Average Joe contest puts you in the same pick 'em format as the Circa Friday Football Invitational. The one the pros play.
35:21
Top average Joe earns a sport, a, a spot, rather, not a sport. They earn a spot in next year's Circa Invitational field. It's free to play. You can register any time during the season.
35:29
Edge Boost is offering the customers a $1,000 deposit if you finish first for the week, and if you don't have an Edge Boost account yet, sign up at edgeboost.io with promo code VSiN and make sure your account is funded with at least $100.
35:41
Enter the contest today at vsin.com/joe. That's vsin.com/ Joe. Gil Alexander and Kelly Biddle, and everybody, back in his rightful position. Now that, now that we've-
35:53
I, I've never fully understood the expression herding cats. Maybe during that commercial break I do. Yeah. We had to get him, we had to get them both out of the studio. Todd being the other guy.
36:02
I tell, I was joking with the guys in the back. I'm like, "Do we have a spray bottle of any kind?" [laughs] Like, can I just go out there and, "Get, get outta here." Shoo. [laughs] Shoo. Get outta here.
36:12
Um, by the way, let me, let me just say this too, 'cause I'm always, uh, I'm always wondering. People just tune in for the first time, like, "Boy- Mm-hmm... he's pretty, he's pretty mean to that Fezzik guy."
36:19
But just Stevie, by the way, is very honest on, like, when he was getting crushed, remember he was, like, down 100 units- Yeah, yeah... in baseball last year? He, he came on here. Oh, yeah.
36:26
He talked about it all the time. Uh, he talks about when he w- when he has, like, the worst of stuff. I was just specifically talking about this in, this
36:37
after the fact thing that some of the very close-to-the-sun sports betters do here in Vegas- Mm... of no one should have lost. And it, and it just, first of all, not only does it not account for game details, right?
36:49
'Cause their response is gonna be, "Well, the result's the result," right? Okay. Super Bowl winning quarterback goes out, all the things that Seattle is. Yeah. No one is not required for that.
36:56
What I'm really talking about is the guy who's betting casually from wherever, who bet the Seahawks minus three and a half, who is not in sports books or on his app all day long, right? Following line moves. Yeah.
37:11
Most people aren't like that, right? And so that person is going to think, "Well, I probably made a good bet," but no one shoulda lost.
37:18
That person doesn't need to hear that 'cause it's sort of a, it's not, it's not intellectually dishonest, it's just, it, it's just conveniently leaving out reality. Yeah, I think.
37:27
It, it, look, I was sitting back there and I think it was a little bit of a, to me I'm, I was listening to slightly two different arguments. Todd completely agrees with me. It was, it was, you know, the game case.
37:36
He, the, Steve's just talking about CLV. I get that. Like, like I get, I get that. Completely understand, but yeah, it's, it, you guys are having two different arguments in my opinion. Okay, that's fair.
37:46
[laughs] That's- That's fair. I was kinda waiting for Steve to just say those words. Like, you, he's talking about CLV, you're talking about the whole right side, wrong side thing and what should have played out.
37:56
No, I'm, that's one of the parts of what I'm talking about, but it's also just, like, it's just not reality for most people. Yeah. Most people have jobs, most people have other things that they're paying attention to.
38:07
No, I, I agree, and I think the one thing, and, and you, you said about this game specifically- Yeah... this is a tough one 'cause, like, like, look, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a worshiper at the, at the CLV, uh, church, right?
38:19
I totally am. Believe in that, totally. Well, how many times did you and I say heading up to that game when it moved to three, I'm like, "I'm shocked this moved to three."
38:26
Like, even someone who watches these markets all day long like, like we do, I do, got odds screen up all the time, I was floored that hit three. That was shocking. [laughs] I'm just looking at these tweets.
38:38
First of all, my guys in the desert, "9:45 PS, uh, Pacific Time for Fezz and Scott Seidenberg?" We're not sure if 9:30 or 9:45. We're not sure on that, but it's gonna be right around there. Um, Dr, [laughs] Dr.
38:49
Van Nostrand adds, he goes, "As someone that has lived in my, uh, in New York my whole life, today sucks.
38:56
But that last 45 seconds with you and Fezz was really my favorite moment on beating, on, uh, on, uh," he called it beating the book to date. He means a numbers game. And you know, it's all over the place.
39:05
K Flo, "To second Fezzik's points, uh, one of my lifelong friends from elementary school's father, who was an f- uh, who was a, uh, fire department, New York Fire Department fire marshal, passed away several months ago from the effects of working at the World Trade Center post 9/11.
39:19
The tragedy of that fateful day continues to go on. Never forget." Man. Never forget indeed. Yeah.
39:26
You don't wanna bring, you don't wanna bring it out a whole show, uh, you know, but- It's a significant day in our history... it's a significant day. Yeah.
39:32
By the way, I wanna wish everybody who, uh, is celebrating a Happy New Year, uh, New Year, Happy New Year tonight as well. I know that's, uh, on the calendar as well for some.
39:41
So, uh, yeah, it's a, it's a, uh, pretty heavy day. Pretty heavy day for sure. Uh, thankfully we live in this great country and we have sports to distract us. We have sports betting. That's what we're all about.
39:53
Uh, we are absolutely grateful for, for the lot in life that we all have. Here are my NFL futures once again. 49ers over nine and a half wins, which I loved as my favorite future of the off-season.
40:06
That's off to a flying start. Nick Benito, defensive player of the year, 14 to one. Caleb Williams, passing yards leader, 20 to one. Um, my millions plays, once again, I had the Seahawks, that's a push in millions.
40:18
I had the Niners, that's a win. I am on the Browns, uh, plus eight and a half. I am on the Lions minus seven. I am on the Steelers minus three and a half in millions. Got all those.
40:29
Um, but as far as, like, the game plays, those are the two, the Thursday, Friday night are the ones I like the most. Yeah. Seattle and San Francisco.
40:36
So- Ooh, I wonder, what do you think about millions strategy now on the, uh, Steelers?
40:41
Oh, I think- Maybe, maybe that's a, maybe that's- I think I got fortunate putting them in when I put in my plays, and I think now everybody will. Not everybody, but a lot- No... of people will have them now. I, I know.
40:51
Yeah. And that's where I'm wondering, I'm like, "Eh, it's week, it's week one. Probably shouldn't overthink it." But there's gonna be a lot of people on that side. Yeah.
40:57
Uh, listen- Two are, by the way, I s- I texted, two had not seen at practice- Not seen at practice... here to, to begin today.
41:03
And then there's the Steelers defeatist people like Todd, who was just in here, who's like, "I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't play the Steelers." I, I- You know, there's that crowd, too.
41:09
You know me, I keep going back and forth on it all week. As Aaron Rodgers gives his opinion on everything outside of football. It's like s- sorry, I'm still not high on this team. Yeah.
41:17
But, like, I do think there are some po- everybody just, I mean, it's like the Falcons can't play football, and we haven't even played a we- a week yet.
41:24
But I get it, like, if Tua's actually hurt, it's a nightmare situation for them. I get that. Uh, Red Sox and Blue Jays for September, two wins behind the Dodgers and Pirates. Step it up. Yes, the Pirates.
41:35
Step it up Red Sox and Blue Jays. Red Sox 28 to one over at William Hill Caesars. Blue Jays plus 23, 25 over here at Circa for most wins this September. Again, two wins behind the leaders.
41:45
Kelly's all over the place, though. What you got? NFL week one, Bucs, Bengals under 51 and a half minus 114. Jags, Jets, six-point teaser. Jags, Texans, six-point teaser. Kyler Murray, 25 plus rushing yards plus 104.
41:59
Cowboys laying two and a half minus 115, and the Broncos plus three minus 120 for Monday Night Football. And don't forget Dr. Bob on Monday to break it down. Break it down. Noon Eastern, 9:00 Pacific.
42:10
That's right, on Monday after we do guessing lines week two. There you go, our first guessing lines of the year Or, or it might be a, it might be a bit of a break from guessing lines. We don't know.
42:20
We haven't done it in a city year. We'll see. Oh, that's right. Yeah, we'll see. It's free flowing. We could, we could go on forever 'cause we recap all the games.
42:25
Gil, Gil and I figured out it's, it's, it's sometimes great, sometimes terrible when we have three hours for guessing lines, but it, what it does offer us early in the season is plenty of time if there's games we want to spend more time on.
42:36
Guessing lines, for those that don't know, again, a, a tradition unlike any other. Me and my meshpucha, Chrissy Andrews, did it for years. Uh, Kelly and I have done it now for a couple years at least, I think. Geez.
42:45
Two, three? Two, three years. Yeah. Where
42:49
essentially we go over, we recap the, the Sunday games, um, 'cause obviously we've already done the, uh, Thursday, and in this case Thursday and, uh, Wednesday and Thursday games.
42:57
But we go over all the Sunday games while we then look forward to the match-ups for the coming week. Kelly will give me the match-up. I will not know the spreads. I know people think that's ridiculous. I seriously don't.
43:09
I'm so in my little tunnel vision of taking notes on these games all through the night, and then I just wanna go to bed. So when I come in here, I don't know the numbers. Kelly will, uh, give me the match-up.
43:19
I'll guess them. Kelly will tell me what the actual numbers are.
43:21
And within that exercise, and oftentimes it's this first reaction that's always the best, because five days of the week that go on after that, or six days, you kinda, your brain kinda tells you other stories. Yeah.
43:33
No, it's- But oftentimes within that exercise, you will get the best look at what is true value on the upcoming NFL games.
43:40
I also think it's one of, it's one of the greatest sacrifices you've made for your audience over, over years. How about Chrissy? Chrissy would not- Yes... put up the lines- Yes... at the South Point till we were done.
43:50
Okay, you're right. Chri- Chrissy even more than you, but like I, it, there's not a Sunday that goes by during the NFL season when I'm looking at openers where I'm just not thinking about you as well.
43:59
Think about, like- I'm like, "Wow, Gil would love this."
44:00
I appreciate- I hope it doesn't move for him [laughs] I appreciate that, but think a- think about all the handle, the collective handle Chrissy sacrificed- Oh, yeah, totally... all those years doing that.
44:08
Um, Paul Carr soccer bets. Chelsea Hull City, both teams to score no, minus 110. I'm gonna go back to those, uh, Paul Carr guys real quick. Back to the, uh, other ones.
44:17
He's also on Liverpool Fulham over three and a half goals, plus 115. Arsenal win the nil at plus 115 as well. A three-pack. Two to one. He was two and one on Champions League this week.
44:27
He was two and one in the Prem last week as well. You, you kinda said it. I hope he goes two and one again and the whole city bets- [laughs] The whole city bets up... kind of like, like I'm secretly hoping for that.
44:35
As long as he's winning. Yeah, right. He's, just keep winning. Uh, HoosierBarry85 adds, "And kids, not many people out of touch with reality like Fez," he says. Michael Harrison, thank you for the timestamps.
44:44
This way I know where to fast-forward to so I don't have to, okay. [coughs] Uh, Chris Falinka, Texas over Ohio State. He's taking Texas on the money line. Mississippi State plus one and a half against Minnesota.
44:53
He's on Temple plus 24 and a half versus Penn State. Buffalo FIU under 47 and a half. Duke Illinois under 51 and a half. Liverpool Fulham, both teams to score yes, minus 170.
45:04
So there will not be a nil in the final score. And then finally, uh, oh, Dr. Bob, don't wanna forget. Dr. Bob came in here. Browns Jaguars under 40 and a half. Little stick in, uh, jabbin' move from Doc, from Dr.
45:16
Bob on the show today. Mm-hmm. And then Steve Fezzik had a bunch at the end. Uh, Ohio State Texas under 49 and a half, and he's on the Texans- Yep... plus one and a half against the Bills.
45:25
Here are his adjusted season win totals as well. Falcons under seven and a half. You're gonna lay the extra juice on these. Browns under six and a half, 'cause he's moving the number, minus 190.
45:34
Commanders under seven and a half, minus 140. Panthers under seven and a half, minus 160. Raiders under six and a half, minus 175. Bang. Football's back, baby. Enjoy. Good luck with all your bets.
45:46
Week one, Sunday in the NFL. All your college football as well. Prop Boys is next. Enjoy from VCF, sports betting...
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
