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Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
47:10
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Transcript
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0:27
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1:23
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSAN.
1:32
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com. Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 189. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin- Kel... in the house.
1:44
Uh, Drew Dincic standing by, gonna join us, talk NFL with us, week one, week two, his regrets, his plays that he's thrilled about having made, and what he's, what he's playing moving forward.
1:55
Hey, did I, uh, did I bury the headline that college football guessing lines is coming up today? We have it coming up. College football guessing lines with Kelly Bidlin a little later on the show.
2:05
Plus, our power rankings and our survivor analysis for week two in the National Football League. Let me get through some tweets. Matthew Mayberry, "Sounds like that guy was playing butt darts."
2:14
Patrick Kelly, [laughs] "Forget Tark. Take Jim Palmer out of retirement. He looks good for 82." He does. "He'll be the Grandpa Dion for the Vikes." Grandpa Dion for the Vikes. What?
2:24
Uh, Fred Leonards, "The thing about betting darts, you're just throwing darts at the board." That's a good point.
2:29
Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil, too much going on in the sports world to waste time talking about another MVP other than Alvarez. It's probably gonna be a unanimous vote," he says. Oh, interesting.
2:38
Jason McKinney, "Since you're gonna ask Drew about my dart bet, I had Damon- [laughs]... I had Damon head-up plus one-and-a-half leg handicap. Beats the, uh, blank out of me what that meant, by the way.
2:49
I lost and had no cash-out option. At least I tailed you on the Red Sox in, in, uh, August." Wait, was this- Of course... was this the accidental bet? You mean, you mean, you mean July.
2:57
Um, yes, that's the accidental bet. Wow, so he, he, he accidentally made a, made a butt bet that was very specific. Correct.
3:07
Th- this is like- I mean, when you make a butt bet, you don't know how to sp- you don't know if you're specifying. No, you're right. Yeah.
3:11
But this is like the, like, "Oh, man, I left my phone in the back of my pants, and like, I just made like a 14-round Robin teaser." Like, it's like, wow, how did you connect all that?
3:19
Uncle Bush, "As a baseball historian and purist, do you put the teensiest, weensiest asterisk on the stolen base stats post pick-off attempt limits now in place?"
3:28
Since you qualified it as teensiest, weensiest, yeah, but too small to see with the naked eye. God, I l- I love geeky baseball guys, and what a geeky baseball question that was. It's a great- That was awesome...
3:39
it's a fantastic question. Fantastic question. And 3jockh313 wrote, "Gil, do we separate the 40-40 Club by juicers and non-juicers?" By the way, he adds, "No tennis today?
3:48
Was looking forward to your WTA Guadalajara five-star play of the month." You know what? After losing on another plus 150 dog yesterday, like 11 to 9 in the first tiebreaker while going 2 of 14 on break points,
4:00
I'm taking a vacation for a little while. Drew Dincic, I was gonna say never takes a vacation, but he's always taking vacations, um, in real life- [laughs]... [laughs] I should point out.
4:09
But I think he takes a vacation from tennis after the US Open as well. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
4:14
He is the co-host of the Deep Dive Podcast, which he does with Andy Molitor, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. He joins us now. You can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper.
4:23
Okay, there's a lot to clean up here, Drew. First of all, good morning. One, do you bet darts? That's the first question that people wanna know. I have an advantage darts guy that gives me plays, yeah.
4:33
He has an advantage darts guy. Just I s- told you I've heard the man talk darts before. Yeah. I don't remember when or why, but. I, I, I don't have an opinion. I know that basically, like, uh, what's going on right now?
4:42
Is it the Motogp Super Series, uh, is on right now? Uh, let me check for you. Yeah. [laughs] Let me check. Everybody knows the answer to that, Drew. Uh, we... Let's see. Yeah, right. I've got the PDC World Championships.
4:52
Sure. Hmm. Oh, this is just a futures thing, though. Sure. And then world... No, the, uh- Yeah, that's futures... World Series of Darts. This starts in two days. Oh, gotcha. Nice. Well, it'll be fun.
5:01
Okay, question two: Do you s- do you stop betting tennis for a while after the US Open? Oh, yes. Yeah. Yes, yes, yes. This is the silly season. I mean, motivations are all over the place between now and finals.
5:12
Um, there's a couple of, uh, kind of high-profile tournaments where we get real-deal money and, you know- Beijing... prize money and, uh- Wuhan... points. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, couple of them that, uh, I'll watch surely.
5:23
Uh, I will, uh, I will be in attendance, uh, for the, uh, WTA finals- Yes... in Indian Wells this year, which I'm super stoked about. I think I'm joining you. Yeah. I think I'll be there too. Um,
5:34
so yeah, you kinda, you, you gotta at least pay attention if you're gonna bet the finals.
5:38
Um, but, uh, it's this, the motivations are all, all freaking over the place now, and we're, we're f- largely playing in the Eastern, far Eastern Hemisphere, so that's out of my time zone. All right. Let's go to the NFL.
5:50
Week one, uh, we were talking a little bit off air. The thing you regret the most was betting the Broncos, you said? That was the only call I had that was a real stinker. Yeah. Yeah. Me too.
6:01
Uh- Feel that way But again, I'll, I'll say this Would, would like that one back We went through the drive-by-drive. I don't think it was that bad of a play. I know the scoreboard says it was.
6:09
I- He was trying to make us feel better, Jared I really don't think it was that bad of a play, for reasons stated earlier. I don't know, man. [laughs] I've got, I've got Davis Webb concerns. I want [laughs] Oh...
6:19
I want that one back. Davis Webb is getting piled on, by the way. The real problems-- I, I mean, I guess, like, the p- the positive takeaways from Monday Night Football, Steve Spagnuolo still has his fastball.
6:28
Um, he loses his CB1 early in the game and s- finds a way to still, uh, broadly confuse Bo Nix, uh, particularly on his first reads all night long. Um, Bo Nix played miserably poorly, I thought. Yes.
6:43
It wasn't as much about what he was being asked to do as, as much as it was he was just holding onto the ball for way too long, way too much indecision from him.
6:51
And they weren't even really asking him to do particularly difficult things.
6:55
Um, yeah, you know, it, surely the fact that they didn't really kind of try to buttress his skittishness with a, uh, more effective running game deserves scrutiny, but, um, Nix was the problem in my opinion.
7:07
And, uh, I kinda hang a lot of that on Spagnuolo giving him credit. Uh, and then on the other side of the ball, like, yeah, pretty clearly Ken Walker is a, an amazing player. He's absolutely in perfect form right now.
7:18
He's healthy. Um, and, uh, he's a good fit for an Andy Reid system. He gives him a breath of fresh air in terms of, you know, varied looks.
7:26
Um, and you know, I think it kind of ma- you know, a lot of sort of the outcome, um, masked what was a very, very, very un-, uh, inspiring, uh, arm performance by Pat Mahomes.
7:42
Um, I thought he looked pretty, pretty rus- rusty, pretty bad, and I have to rewatch it today and kinda do a little bit of a self, you know, a little bit of evaluation. Was, was it mechanics?
7:52
Is there something going on, or was it literally just, uh, rust and yips because, you know, he's, he's in a primetime game at home after a, you know, big injury comeback?
8:00
So, um, yeah, I mean, the takeaways are Spagnuolo can still coordinate an amazing defense, uh, and, uh, Kenneth Walker is a, a dangerous player. Let me, let me just run real quick, and it'll take t- 20 seconds.
8:12
Phantom hold on Pat Bryant. Uh, next drive, Bryant drops surefire first down on second and four. Next drive, very odd play call on third and one at their own 32.
8:21
Second half, third and two at the Kansas City 39, flag for delay. First and goal, holding on Bryant on another drive. OPI on Troy Franklin nullifies a would-be first down on another drive.
8:32
I'm just saying there's stuff they can clean up pretty easily. Um, but I'll, I'll leave that at the, the point you make about Sean Payton. I made this in the off-season.
8:40
I said, "How long will it take for the Broncos offense to not get results before Sean Payton wrests the play calling duties back?" Two-- One more week of that? Yeah. Two more weeks? I, [sighs] mm.
8:53
I think it'll be longer than that. I mean, they kinda can't afford it, right? The, have you seen their schedule? It's tough. Yeah. They could go O and six. Yeah.
9:03
Uh, and I don't think it wouldn't even necessarily be that big of a reflection on the Broncos.
9:07
[chuckles] It's just they happen to be playing against tough competition week in, week out, uh, for the first six weeks of the season.
9:13
So, um, they're gonna need to f- they're gonna need to find, uh, something more positive offensively. They, like, so- What I got out of that is Sean Payton- The Chiefs-...
9:21
will wait precisely for that gauntlet to end, and then he'll do it. [laughs] That's what I heard. Maybe, yes. [laughs] Yeah. That's exactly what he'll do. I go O and six and then try to win 11 straight- Yeah...
9:29
and be like, "Oh, I guess it was me all along, guys." Yeah. Mm-hmm. Um, but yeah, no. The, uh, the, the, um, yeah, the defense, I, I guess, yeah. The, the
9:39
s- Monday Night Football kind of, th- there wasn't a lot to take away from the Chiefs, I didn't think, other than you got to see Mahomes and he looks rusty.
9:45
Uh, there was a lot there, and there is a lot of uncertainty where the Broncos go now, right? Like, the Broncos could s- tailspin a little bit.
9:52
Um, this could be a confidence, uh, shattering performance that really affects them as they take on test after test these next handful of weeks.
9:59
Um, or they could bounce back next week, take care of the Jags, and then everything's fine, and be competitive in these next couple of games, be three and three.
10:06
And then all of a sudden, the schedule gets soft, and they could, you know, kind of resume their, you know, aspirations as far as defending the, uh, the one seed in the, uh, AFC Championship Game appearance.
10:16
Um, but, um, you know, I mean, I, I, I, m- my obvious takeaways were the running defense was very weak.
10:22
Uh, there were questions in my mind about that unit coming into the season, because they were, uh, they, they lost their best run defender, I thought, in Jonathan Franklin-Myers.
10:30
And Jonathan Cooper being a- away from the team as well affects kind of just the number of bodies you have to really throw at the running game.
10:37
Um, if you can't defend, uh, the running game with light boxes, which is the way they want to test, you know, to play, that definitely, uh, has wrinkles otherwise in, in terms of your defensive approach.
10:49
And then all of that kind of unraveled the defense. Uh, I thought, uh, even though the coverage, they still have extremely talented coverage players.
10:56
Uh, like, if, if you can get physical and run on the Broncos, I think everybody's gonna test them now.
11:01
Um, and that's not great news, because you see the Rams, Niners, uh, and Seahawks are all kind of in the mix coming down the, the pipe in their, uh, t- you know, upcoming schedule.
11:10
So, um, the Jaguars are gonna be a more fair test, 'cause they want to throw the ball. But, uh, boy, did they look as sharp as we have ever seen Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen look, uh, in week one.
11:20
Uh, gonna be a really, really fun week two there. Um, that's the one k- game I'm probably the happiest not to play and just see how it- Yeah... uh, kinda plays out.
11:28
Um, just because it's, it's either gonna kinda solidify opinions positively for the Jaguars offense, which I think I'm, I'm dancing on takes like, yeah, oh yeah, they're right there in the discussion with the Bills and the Ravens as realistic AFC winners.
11:41
Um, you know, and, and a, a, a, a, a good passing performance a- against the Broncos would solidify that opinion.
11:48
Uh, and then the flip side of the Broncos defense looking great at home against the Jags might, uh, throw some cold water on Jags offensive positive takes and, uh, you know, kinda Broncos defense is back will be kind of the narrative that spins out of that one.
12:01
So that week two game is gonna really kind of have a lot of, uh, put a lot of wind in the sails of Broncos takes for the coming weeks. And, um, you know, their schedule is gonna be fun to bet all season pretty much.
12:12
And no surprise it is Jags money here this morning. We are down to two and a half pretty much everywhere in that game. Three's hard to find anymore. I think I might be playing the Broncos for all the reasons stated.
12:25
Let me just ask you this before we go to break, 'cause we'll get your week two picks on the other side.
12:28
But Drew, real quick, uh, w- what is g- what is the most account-damaging overreaction that people will have of any of the 32 teams, either to the good or bad? I asked this of Kelly earlier. From week one.
12:40
Account-damaging overreaction? Yeah. Hmm. Either to the good or bad. Like, they're s- people are gonna just say, "This team sucks," or, "This team is, is, is good-" [laughs]... based on one performance.
12:51
I think people that, I think the people that buy into the Giants and the Cardinals are gonna be pretty happy that they overreacted. Oh, okay. So the opposite of an overreaction, a proper reaction.
13:01
Let's talk about that- Yeah... on the other side, too. Drew's week two plays next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network.
13:07
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15:03
Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code VSiN to get started today. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Drew Dinsay kind enough to join us as always on Tuesday for two segments.
15:14
Not one, but two. He is the Whale Capper, whale_capper on Twitter, Deep Dive podcast, which he does with our buddy Andy Molator as well. We gotta get Andy on as well. Mm-hmm. Andy gets the short shrift here, Drew. We do.
15:25
We'll work him back in.
15:25
[laughs] Drew, let's, uh, let's, let's revisit, 'cause you had a, you've had a break now to think of the, uh, the answer to the question I asked, which is if- first of all, you said, first thing out of your mouth was Cardinals and Giants are gonna be proper reactions to the good.
15:38
You actually like both of those teams. [laughs] Um, that's, that's its own category. We- you can riff on that, too. But what you, you thought about the most account-damaging overreaction from week one will be who? Um,
15:52
believing in the Jets looks like it's gonna be a problem to me. Uh, the Jets are down to three and a half. Um, oh, you know, look ahead there, it was six and a half. Um,
16:05
if you wanna go to war with, uh, Frank Reich and, and Geno Smith, good luck to you. [laughs] Um- Enjoy...
16:13
much more of a reflection, I think, of a well-prepared team against a, a team that's just not really competing this year in week one.
16:19
Uh, I think the Green Bay-New York Jets game is gonna be fascinating to see how this market evolves this week considering you can get Green Bay at this kind of a cheap price. Um, I think anyone... I don't...
16:30
A- a- at this point now, I'm just gonna put words in people's mouths of potential reactions that I think would be stupid. Uh, if you assume that, uh, Houston's defense is not gonna be, um, you know, the- Kelly?...
16:41
a, a, a top five unit, I think you're gonna be sorry that you make that call. Agree. Uh, I think if you, uh, if you are jumping to the conclusion that, uh, that, um,
16:53
that Dallas is not gonna be a contender, I think you might be sorry. Uh, if you are jumping to the conclusion that, uh, um, that
17:03
Cincinnati's offense is good because they scored a bunch [chuckles] on Tampa Bay, you might end up being sorry. Agree. Um, there's a c- that, there, there weren't...
17:12
I didn't think there were many, like, real serious, um, uh, you know, kind of, uh, you know, j- mis- misdirection signal, uh, uh, you know, at least in week one, um, outside of the handful we've mentioned.
17:29
Okay, and you think Cardinals and Giants are the real deal? Well, at least real deal relative to their market price. Mm-hmm. Yeah, absolutely. Um,
17:39
the, the Cardinals in particular, um, this time last year, we would've said they were around a neutral price team. Um, they're a stronger roster now.
17:48
Um, they proved to you that, uh, that they were pretty, uh, prepared for the start of the regular season in week one.
17:56
Uh, and now they're still getting, um, you know, getting treated like they're a minus four, minus, minus, minus three, minus four, uh, as far as fair price, uh, up against the Seattle team with Drew Lock in week two that I'm, I'm, I'm not exactly sure warrants much more than a plus one.
18:11
Um, so yeah, the, uh, the Cardinals I think have been upgraded a hair, but not enough.
18:17
Uh, and I think if you do upgrade the Cardinals aggressively, you're gonna bear fruit this next couple weeks while people still kind of treat them as, uh, an also-ran. Uh, the Giants in the same boat.
18:27
Um, [clears throat] a little surprised that they're [clears throat] still catching seven against a, uh, a Rams team that's gonna be without Miles Garrett.
18:34
Um, and just in general, uh, kind of nuked the early part of their season with their stupid travel decisions.
18:40
Um, and yeah, I would, uh, uh, expect that any team that's controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball early in the season's gonna reap some success.
18:49
And, uh, you know, pretty clearly that's what the Giants were able to do on Sunday Night Football at home, and now we get to see if they can do it on the road against a travel, uh, travel-weary team.
18:57
Week two, and l- I guess I'll start by hearkening back, 'cause I promised I would ask this. Let's start with Survivor. You gave an impassioned- Mm...
19:05
speech last week about the Steelers and using them in Survivor, which ends up getting bite. First of all, do you feel, do you feel a lot of relief from that performance? Do you feel vindicated? Oh, yeah, absolutely.
19:18
Yeah. Okay. I had a ton of, uh, I, I had a ton on Steelers at, uh, three, three and a half, um, on top of all the, every s- every... I shoved Steelers in every Survivor entry, uh, across all of my- Ooh... options.
19:31
So- Well played... yeah, I was, uh, I was pretty, uh, I was pretty relieved. And hon- you know, I kept telling Andy this, but my favorite play of the week [laughs] by far was the T.J. Watt pick six.
19:42
Um, because in that moment it was like, how is this game possibly in the balance? Cooper Rush cannot play quarterback. What is going on?
19:48
And it was, uh, it w- the futility of the Aaron Rodgers experience was just, uh, it was such a tough hang. Uh, and thankfully it didn't even really come down to that. So, uh, I was very, very relieved there. Yeah.
19:59
Um, and happy to have used the Steelers and not have to think about them for the rest- That's right... of the season [laughs] when it comes to Survivor. T- T.J. Watt, T.J. Watt bailed us- So very happy about that...
20:07
bailed us all out, that's for sure. What about this week in Survivor? Um, yeah, I think you're, you're basically probably splitting entries between Bucs and Niners.
20:17
Um, I know that there's probably some people who will make the case for the Chargers and this being sort of a back-against-the-wall type of moment, uh, and to use the Chargers this week, but I s- I'm still very unconvinced that they have anywhere close to a functional interior offensive line.
20:32
So I'm gonna pass on Chargers this week. Uh, I'm gonna pass on Ravens this week as well. I think Ravens are sort of the huge favorite on upset alert against the Saints.
20:42
Um, Ravens will be without their top two wide receivers in this one.
20:45
Um, I know Bateman probably is considered a top two wide receiver on that team, but I think pretty clearly through preseason it was the Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane show, and I don't think either guy's gonna be available for this contest.
20:55
Saints, on the other hand, uh, I thought what they looked like in the second half was much more of, uh, you know, kind of the, they got the, the early, uh, you know, extended preseason jitters out of the way, and I think that team's gonna, uh, be able to go toe-to-toe with a really good Ravens squad.
21:09
Um, I took the nine, plus nine there. I think plus eight and a half is still a fair play, um, just, uh, as a neutral side, uh, on the Saints.
21:18
And, uh, I think they could be the stinker, uh, this week in terms of, uh, busting some survivors. A, a portent of our Survivor s- uh, segment coming up, a lot of what Drew just said there is going to be
21:30
corroborated by our analysis later. Let me just hint at that. But we'll, we'll do Survivor later. Okay. So your picks, you've just gave us one. You're on the Saints plus the points against the Ravens. Yep.
21:40
Anything else that you've bet? Teased, teased two earlier. I think Cardinals plus four is a bet against the Seahawks. My fare there is, uh, just under three.
21:49
Uh, I took the Colts, six and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. Mm. Uh, I think this is, uh, a little bit of a overreaction to the Chiefs winning last night. Um, I took the Giants. We teased this one.
22:01
Uh, I took them plus seven against the Rams. Uh, a little sidebar here. What... Uh, did we all go?
22:09
Like I, w- w- am I ima- imagining that, like, a huge portion of, like, the NFL info space was going, went out of their way to really try to give the Rams credit for- [laughs]...
22:20
what was one of the dumber plans that has ever been cons, like, c- like, constructed for traveling to Australia? Um- Were you saying this beforehand, Drew? That the, that you thought it was super dumb? I, I, I was.
22:32
I, [laughs] I thought this was, I would've been hammering the table that this was, like, the betting angle of the, of the season, except that the Niners had just so many injuries and were getting hurt, like, in practice.
22:42
And I was like, "God, man, if they were healthy, like, God, this is such a good s- spot, the Niners." I, I didn't play it, and I regret it. But, like, like, th- just think about, like, for a second, the Olympics.
22:54
They've contested the Olympics in, in, uh, in that part of the world before. Mm-hmm. Like Tokyo, not that, not that, uh, uh, far back in time. Did the US Olympic team- [laughs]...
23:04
keep our track and field runners in Los Angeles until 24 hours before the 100 meters, and then fly them to Tokyo and run like they're on Pacific Time? No.
23:15
They took them well ahead of time, got their bodies adjusted to the state and place that they were going to compete in, and they competed well. Like, I, I did... I never... I...
23:25
There were so many examples of NFL teams going to Europe and stinking when they do this quick travel thing. The Rams did a quick travel once.
23:34
It worked out well, and now they're acting like they're the f- like weird, this weird, they've busted science and they know how to, like, kind of trick the body. Like- Well, you know, I-... absolutely ridiculous...
23:44
as early as- I thought that whole experience was ridiculous... as early as August 10th, I did a deep dive analysis, not to steal your podcast name. Sure.
23:51
I did a deep dive analysis on the travel, and I went back to all the international games in Europe. I threw out Brazil and I threw out Mexico, but I did all the Europe ones. Sure.
23:59
And the team that arrived earlier, I think this, this w- I think they were 17 and 9 ATS, or 16 and 9 before, I can't rem- if this went to 18 and 9. But this, with the early, the early arrivals, ATS- Yeah...
24:12
have a- Yeah... had a good record. Now, is that a, is that a good sample s- enough sample size? Probably not. Does this one game prove anything? Maybe, maybe not.
24:19
But you know Ed Fang's sleep science lady, she said the Rams were doing it right.
24:24
She said that- I, uh, uh, yeah Yeah I, I, I, none, none of it checked out to me, and I, honestly, the 17 to 9, I think the, some of those 17s were just non-competes, right? Like the game- Yeah...
24:34
was just not competitive. Yeah. And that was what we saw. Uh, and yeah, I, I, I'm still shocked by that. Uh, last couple of, uh, angles for you. Please. I took the over in Panthers-Falcons.
24:43
I think that's gonna go over 44. I took the under in Bengals-Texans, 46 and a half under for me. Uh, and then last play for me, I took the Vikings five and a half. I think they are competitive against the Bears.
24:55
Competitive against the Bears, who are exactly who we thought they were- Exactly... or would be. Yes. Great offense. When Ben Johnson tells you he's gonna break the scoring record, you should listen.
25:05
He's- [laughs] It's kind of my takeaway... he really means it. And the defense, not very good. Thank you, Drew. As always, Drew Dincic, everybody.
25:12
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25:27
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25:38
Gil Alexander, we get tweets, beat of the book. Michael Burns, "Kelly short-changed humans. It's 300 to 1." Are you serious? One of the, one of the greatest futures wagers of the last few years, he says.
25:49
Did we hear that number before? I thought it was in the hundreds. I thought so too. I don't- 300 to one? E- either way, it's awesome. I mean, I don't, I'm not, I'm not gonna doubt anything, but- Either way, it's awesome.
26:01
Tom Emma, "How much does Caminero playing third base every day factor in, factor in when he has a chance to beat Alvarez in two of the Triple Crown categories?" Yeah, I'm sure it will to some, to some voters for sure.
26:12
But again, if you're one or two across all of those stat categories, what are we really talking about? But again, uh, you can't swoon the rest of the way in. Let's put it that way. Mm.
26:25
If Alvarez isn't getting hits for the next week and a half, we have a different conversation. How... You know, we say this about so many different sports.
26:33
And as Joe pointed out, if he goes crazy the next week and a half, we don't have a conversation either. Yeah. This is the, uh, like thank God for betting. Yeah. Thank God.
26:42
[laughs] Like, is this, is this really a big time, like, national conversation right now? Hmm. The r- the race between, uh- Apparently to, apparently to our listeners it is.
26:50
[laughs] Yeah, this is why I love thank God for betting. I'm just responding to tweets. I love it. All right.
26:53
And Freddy Leonard says, "My personal unpopular NFL rules opinion, when the ball carrier is down, he should just be down regardless of being touched down or not by opponent. Way too much cat and mouse.
27:01
Was he or wasn't he touched? Meanwhile, the defense doesn't know what to do." I kinda like the NFL being different from college. Me too. Yeah. And wait, what was it last night? You had the Mahomes trip, right?
27:11
Tripped over his own offensive lineman. Yeah. Went down and got up and got drilled. And then on the T.J. Watt pick six, the Atlanta Falcons lineman just standing around like- Yeah, kind, yeah... "Oh, I guess he's down."
27:21
Yeah. Someone put a hand on him. No, you play, you play pro. Mm-hmm. Let's talk some college football. Peter Futak, the emperor of college football news, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
27:30
You can follow him on Twitter @petefutak, F-I-U, that's Florida International University, T-A-K. That's right. That's Tiago Agustin Tirante. Oh, no it's not. Quirante it would be. I messed that up.
27:42
Pete joins us now from the heartland. How you doing, Peter? I, I'm with you. I, I don't like the college rule. I think it's, if you trip and fall, it's kinda eh.
27:51
It's, I, however, I like the one foot in rule on a catch for college. I don't like that f- the two thing, two foot in for the pros. But yeah, when you're down, you should have to be touched.
28:01
And my other question for you, hearing your MVP talk, I've always screamed that we should be voting for the Heisman after the season.
28:10
I've never understood why, if the entire season should matter, why the MVP, the MOP, the whole thing shouldn't be after the entire season is over and not the regular season.
28:21
What do you, what say you on, like, baseball- Okay, you-... regular season? 'Cause if you're the best player, doesn't it only matter, you're, you're taking out the best games of the year to be the MVP of the season?
28:32
Oh, you mean you want it to continue through the post-season? Yeah. Is that what you're saying? Yeah. Oh. Well, you know, some of them are not gonna be in the post-season, so it, it sort of unevens the playing field.
28:42
Then he's not very valuable then, is he? Well, that would be, that would be one interpretation of that, sure. You are entitled to that interpretation. Now, you say that as a Heisman voter yourself. I do.
28:51
What is the deadline for Heisman voting? It's always befo- it's like taking the te- it's like taking a test for a history class and you weren't taught whether or not, you know, who won the war. You know?
29:02
It's like, okay, this is great. This guy was really good in the regular season, but these aren't the games that matter really now. It's, uh, but I've never won that argument with any other Heisman voter.
29:12
They're like, "Oh, this is a regular season award." [laughs] It's like, well, okay, I guess. Well- It's the way college football works, but...
29:18
since you bring it up, Pete, uh, I know you're not supposed to share, but can you just at this earthly stage, there's probably no harm in suggesting to us who you like early right now.
29:28
Who, who s- who's caught your eye in the Heisman race?
29:31
Well, what's weird is the guy, the two guys who have had the Heisman moments are probably the lowest on the list here, and they're, they're not probably not even on the list.
29:40
Like I said, I, I kind of n- no joke said if you really wanna go wacky, Bryce Underwood had a Heisman moment. Whether you like the Michigan thing or not against Western Michigan, he was good.
29:51
Ag- his stats weren't great against Oklahoma, but he was really good against Oklahoma, and he's got a bunch of big games to go. Arch Manning I thought had a Heisman moment for that fourth quarter against Ohio State.
30:03
Stats weren't great. Like, oh, look, you know, he was bad the whole game. Well, yeah, Ohio State's defense is kinda awesome. Let's see what he does going forward. That's, that's kinda cheap.
30:11
But, but for me right now, Josh Hoover, 'cause he's gonna have the stats, he's gonna have the big chances, he's gonna have the big moments, but to win the Heisman you have to obv- obviously you have to have a good team.
30:23
You gotta have the stats. But Mendoza last year did not have the big giant stats compared to most Heisman winners, but he had the big Heisman moment with that comeback win over Penn State.
30:33
So at the moment, I still go with my pre-season call of Josh Hoover. Uh, but right now it's, you know, CJ Carr's looking great. Darian Mensah's setting the table for that game against Notre Dame.
30:44
So, uh, wide open race at the moment. Uh, does Malachi Tony making the Heisman pose three times make you wanna vote for him more or less? Uh, yes, more.
30:54
No, it, uh, look, I w- I like him more than I liked Travis Hunter from a few years ago, so I guess, you know, I still refuse to acknowledge that Travis Hunter won the Heisman. But, uh- [laughs] No, Tony's great.
31:05
[laughs] He's awesome. But he, it, it, right now it's the quarterbacks. It's, it really is about who are the stars 'cause there's so many good quarterbacks out there. Dante Moore obviously exited the building.
31:17
Uh, John Mateer exited the building. So let's, we got these massive games coming up, and the key to this whole season's gonna be Notre Dame and Miami.
31:25
Both of them are gonna be screaming towards that big game in November, and then the winner of that's probably gonna be, be the leader in the clubhouse.
31:33
The other guy to watch, Jayden Mayer from, uh, USC, has been on fire so far. He gets Oregon in two weeks, and if he lights them up, all of a sudden he's right in the mix.
31:43
Okay, from last weekend, I, I did a whole thing yesterday at the end of the M- Monday Guessing Line show about Ryan Day and Steve Sarkisian at the end of that game between Texas and Ohio State, and how they both were, they just both played it brain dead, in my humble opinion.
32:00
[laughs] Yes. And, uh, d- does that, as a college football guy, does that drive you crazy as it does those of us who watch both pro and college? Like, it was just as dumb as- Oh...
32:11
as dumb as some of the pro coaches are, that was just malpractice from both of those guys.
32:15
I, I know they won the game, but it was my line, you know, the Bobby Knight line of, "Oh, we were in big trouble and I looked down on the other side of the bench and there was Dale Brown.
32:23
I knew everything would be okay." Well, I've got to imagine that, you know, the Ohio State coaches look across the field and go, "Oh, there's Steve Sarkisian. You know, this is gonna be all right."
32:32
What bailed them out, and I ca- I said this all throughout last year, these quarterbacks are so freaking over-coached.
32:40
When you just let 'em go back there and be a quarterback and just, you know, s- kite the ball, find the guy, throw the ball. Arch Manning is awesome at that.
32:50
Arch Manning, when you just, when you finally take all the 5,000 things going through his head that he's being coached up to do and say, "Hey, Arch, go out there and lead the team down the field," he was awesome at that, and he let it rip in the fourth quarter and kind of, you know, un-Sarkisian-ed himself here.
33:06
But you're right, but the, the crazy part about that game too is, and this is the, the thing that drive coaches nuts in this, you know, $100 million world of, you know, these rosters and things, comes down to a kick.
33:18
Three of the last four Ohio State games going back to, like, 2022, I think it is, have come down, if the guy hit the field goal for Ohio State, Ohio State wins.
33:27
Ohio State has, like, one loss in the last three and a half years if the guy hits the field goal. So same thing, guy hits the field goal, then they win this. But the defense couldn't figure out how to stop Arch.
33:37
They got gassed, and a great win for Texas, obviously. But you look at the rest of Texas' schedule, it's pretty nasty.
33:44
You look at the re- the rest of the Ohio State's schedule, they still get Michigan, they still get Indiana, they still get a bunch of nasty teams too.
33:51
And as we found out through the college football playoff world, if you're nine and three, you're in big trouble for being in this thing. So Ohio State can have one more loss, probably can't have two.
34:00
Two questions, uh, a minute on each here. One, could it be that Oregon is just mediocre at football after Oklahoma State dominates them? Yeah. I mean, it, and I, the, the comp is Penn State of last year.
34:15
I was telling, I thought Penn State was the team last year 'cause they had everybody coming back from the team that got to the, you know, the college football playoff final four.
34:23
You had Drew Aller, who had been around for 10 years, and you had all these different parts that were great. It, it seemed like that was Penn State's year, and it turned out, eh, they were just kind of not great.
34:33
Well, it just seems like, I mean, Oregon still has all the talent in the world. Dante Moore hasn't shown up yet. The team hasn't shown up yet. I'm not sure why they are so lethargic and logy going out there.
34:46
But to your point, they might not, just not be that good. But they have all this talent back from the team that last year got close, lost to Indiana.
34:55
Okay, Indiana turned out to be great, whatever, but they just have not shown up yet. They still have obv- they obviously still have time.
35:02
They're gonna crank the holy hell out of Portland State this week, but then they gotta go to U- USC. That's not easy now.
35:09
So if you look at the Oregon schedule, it's gonna be really hard for them to run through this with tal- a team as talented as it, as it is. Oregon just gets by Boise State, gets blasted by Oklahoma State.
35:19
Uh, okay, and then LSU, Ole Miss, the Lane Kiffin Bowl. What do you got here?
35:25
You know how the world of AI and you get these whistleblowers who are out there yelling, "Look, the robots are gonna kill us," and, you know, who's listening?
35:32
I am screaming to everybody, you're, we're not getting just how awesome LSU is. This is, this is, no, no, no, well, maybe Alabama, maybe, you know, Georgia. No, no, no, no. LSU is so freaking good. They are so fast.
35:47
They loaded up through the portal. As long as Sam Levitt can stop throwing these weird interceptions, LSU's just gonna be a monster all year long. I think they roll into Ole Miss and take this. Wow.
35:58
Sounds like you're laying the three then, just to clarify? Yeah? Yeah. Okay. Pete Futak, collegefootballnews.com, a treasure trove of college football info. Thank you, Pete. Good to see you, man. Later, guys.
36:08
Pete Futak, everybody, on the show. NFL power rankings next. Yes. Plug it in. The Power Hour. Next on A Numbers Game.
36:16
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37:09
I don't like the... I like that we had opposite window success in the NFL this week, but I don't like it when it works like that, especially week one. Oh, that's all over- Like the early window...
37:19
that's all over the place. It was so hot, Gil. Early window I'm like 3-0 in millions, hit like almost every bet I made. I was, "Oh man, great start to the season," and then, uh, lose my other two million selections.
37:31
Oh, so three and two. Three and two. I went two two and one. How's that for middling? Boring. Yeah. Not good. No, it's not. No. Tweet- Especially like last night I had that Broncos side.
37:41
I'm like, like week one or the first week of any quarter, four and one, very different from three and two. Oh, yeah. For sure. Bernerachi on Twitter, um, "One, Drew has an advantage darts guy.
37:54
Two, amazing lettuce," I think he means his hair. Mm-hmm. "Three, skiing across the world. Four, wifey vacation pre NFL season. We just can't compete," he says. We really can't. He's right. He's got it figured out.
38:03
He's right. Kevin Norman- He's got like a real job too, guys. It's weird. [laughs] He does have a job. He's like a respected scientist. He's a seismologist. I don't know about respected, but he is a seismologist.
38:15
The science of seismo. Kevin Norman, "I cannot recommend enough betting darts during the World Darts Championship, December 11th through January 3rd. Huge event over Christmas. Great drama, great theater.
38:24
It's become a holiday tradition in the UK. Must-see TV." Okay. We've gotten enough- Thank you, Kevin Norman... we've gotten enough tweets on this now. I'm finding us a dart guy. A dart guy? Finding us a dart guy.
38:34
I thought you said something else. The, the World Series- Mm-hmm... starts in two days, right? Isn't that what I said? World Series of Darts? Yeah, World Series of Darts. That sounds like a big deal, right? Yeah.
38:47
Shrek McFee, "Keinholz, uh, still 70 to one for Heisman." Louisville's Keinholz. I li- I like him. W- Ohio State would never let him start. Wow. Will he... What he says?
38:58
"Will Torch's ranked," oh, "Will Torch ranked SMU this weekend, then very live to win the ACC if they beat Miami. Lookout. Been phenomenal so far." Yeah, he has been phenomenal so far. Johnny Ringo,
39:10
"Forgot to refill the ulcer medication and of course there is a Pete segment. Praying for a, [laughs] praying for a tame segment, but no he has a wild take on the Heisman. In my best Red Fox, 'I'm coming, Elizabeth.'"
39:21
You a big Sanford and Son guy? No? N- no. You don't know what Sanford and Son is do you? No. Oh, come on. You don't know who Red Fox is? No. Oh, oh my God. I don't think so. Oh my God.
39:31
Look at the picture I just sent you. I'm doing a show over here. I'm a... Well, look at here. You know, on my phone? It has to do with darts. Oh. It has to do with darts. What happened to my phone? Did Wyatt steal it?
39:39
There, Luke Littler- Yeah... is minus 190 to win the World Series of Darts. There's like- Wow... I don't know, this looks like 100 pe- 100 participants or something like that. I sent you a picture of this guy.
39:50
Tell me what, h- what age he is. Luke Littler? Luke Littler, yes. Okay. This is, ladies and gentlemen, this, the name of this segment is Kelly... Or is it, you sent it by v- via Pete? Text.
39:59
Text, te- texted you and Andrew Maxwell. I didn't get any text from you. You did not get any text. Okay. How old is that man? Oh, he is, uh, young, late, uh, early 30s. 19 years old. Oh.
40:07
[laughs] He is your minus 190 favorite. Wow. [laughs] It's great radio, by the way, Kelly. Steve the Proxy is a Mets fan who literally watched the 162 games, or all 162 games in 2021 and 59 in 2020.
40:19
I've never checked out of the baseball season quicker than these David Stern's Mets. Pete Alonso, league leader in RBI, might be better than the clown Stern's acquired for first base. Steve's just venting.
40:29
Numbers Guys, "Morning Gil, can you ask Pete," oh, I missed this, "if there's a bigger travesty of Kenneth Walker not winning the Heisman in '21 to not even being led into the building in New York?"
40:39
I would ask him that, but then Pete would have his own personal Heisman story about that, and he, he would, [laughs] he would tell us what he voted for and why he was right and they were... Pete, Pete's interesting.
40:49
By the way, there's t- I love Pete... unlike, unlike the NFL voters, where there's only 50 of them, there's like 1,000 Heisman voters. Yeah, yeah. And they do regional breakdowns, which are always fascinating.
41:00
Jeff Levine, "Listening on delay, so sorry if covered, but too much criticism of Broncos without only casual r- noting huge boost to Chief's offense due to Walker looking Henry-like versus above average D, not fluke like in my opinion."
41:13
Another way of, of saying I thought the Broncos are... Yeah, a different way of saying the, a little too much anti-Broncos I think from people from that game. Kenneth Walker, as I mentioned earlier, the real deal.
41:24
I cited the stats earlier in terms of breaking tackles. But like, okay, okay. So, like, where's, where does Kenneth Walker, you and I are not fantasy players. No.
41:33
Where does Kenneth Walker rank in best running backs in the NFL to you? Um, I don't know. You'd have to ask a fantasy guy. But I, I, I would s- he's a, he's easily a top tenner. Okay. I was gonna say, like w- w- top 10.
41:44
Yeah. I don't, it's, it's a, I, I... Look, maybe I'll end up looking dumb. He looked great in the Super Bowl. He looked like... It's a running back. It's still, like I... He looked amazing yesterday. Yeah.
41:54
I just don't think that's the difference between the Chiefs all of a sudden conquering the AFC West is just that addition. I will be shocked if we're talking at the end of the year about that.
42:04
He's a great transition from Patrick Mahomes's injury to easing Patrick Mahomes in. Mm-hmm. Just feed him the rock. That fourth and one, though, was John Riggins NFC- I mean, that was crazy. That was awesome.
42:15
That was awesome... Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for power rankings. Plug it in. [electronic music] 97.1, The River Atlanta.
42:26
I instantly just felt bad 'cause the, uh, the note that where I wrote down a few stations that people sent in- You stepped on the birds. S- sorry. Yeah. Uh, the few stations that people tweeted in to us- Yeah...
42:37
I wrote them down and that note got deleted. I'm, I'm- So you guys are gonna have to-... I'm vowing for a new station every week... I, that's what I would like. Y- yes. Yeah.
42:44
Tweet at us your favorite, it needs to be rock. It has to be classic rock. I just did 97.1, The River in Atlanta. I'm gonna go rock of any kind. Can we go, can we go classic rock, '90s rock, alt rock?
42:54
'Cause there's more of those stations, and they always got the great call letters The river Just send us your rock stations. We'll shout them out. W- WSRV Atlanta, shout out.
43:02
All right, here are the power rankings, the all too early, at post week one power rankings. This is like the best week to do this. Now, in the, in the off season, we did top 10 AFC, we did top 10 NFC. Yes, we did.
43:10
So this is our first- First official- First official... NFL top 10. All right, I went to 13 just to, uh, show people that I didn't hate on three other teams. Number 13, the Chicago Bears. Why?
43:22
Because your defense stinks. That's the only reason you're still 13. Your offense totally nu- you are exactly... It's like Dennis Green again about the Bears.
43:31
They are who we thought they are, or they were who we thought, whatever his conjugation was. Number 12, the Packers. I just don't know. I think Jordan- They are who we thought they were...
43:39
I think Jordan Love is excellent, by the way. And we little mother fuck. I love Jordan Love. I- Packers number 12, even in defeat. I got the Jag-uiars at 11.
43:49
The only reason I don't have the Jaguars higher is because they played the Browns. I don't know what they are. 10, Lions. You're gonna have to do better, Lions, to go up this list. You got an easy schedule this year.
44:00
That was not good letting the Saints back in that game. Broncos, for all the reasons stated throughout this show, I'm not, I'm not docking them that much from last night.
44:08
A lot went against them that is just, again, this is the thing about,
44:12
it's, we say it about analytics, Dean Oliver's quote, "Your eyes see one game better than, uh, than analytics, but analytics sees every, every game in the league all season long better than your eyes do."
44:23
I would apply that to last night's game specifically, that your eyes probably didn't see that game as well as just reviewing the boc- reviewing the play by play as we did earlier, and seeing how many ridiculous things happened to the Broncos in that game.
44:36
That just won't happen from week to week. Texans are eight, even in defeat to the Bills. There's no shame in losing to the Bills. There just isn't, and I think that Texans defense is still gonna be great.
44:45
The Chiefs are seven. It is Patrick Mahomes. They did win last night. They were impressed. I'm not gonna take anything away from them. They're seven. The Eagles are six.
44:52
I actually think they beat a pretty, pretty strong, like, performance by Washington on defense this past week. Washington's offense got it going late in that game. The Eagles still have a phenomenal defense.
45:05
They, they shouldn't be any lower than six for that defense. Rams are five. I know it's one horrible loss, but it was Australia, so we'll give them the benefit of the doubt, not lower than that. Niners are four.
45:14
I think they're a Super Bowl contender. The Seahawks, though, despite having Drew Lock, uh, they're third, but you can't be higher than third with Lock right now. They will get Darnold back.
45:22
Bills are two, Ravens are one. Those are for my off-season priors. You, sir. I have two, uh, two teams that you have in your top six are not even in my top 10. Okay. [laughs] Thought you loved week one. Oh, man.
45:35
All right. Uh, I'll start from the bottom as well. Seahawks 10. Placeholder for now, Gil. Yeah. Because of the Drew Lock thing. Don't overthink it. The, the, I love Seahawks.
45:45
We had them one-two in our NFC with the Rams and the- That just comes down to how you do power rankings. Exactly. Yeah.
45:50
I, I'm gonna leave them on here 'cause I'm a believer long-term, but, like, we don't, we just don't know. The, the latest report this morning is it's a few weeks on Darnold. Uh, we'll see.
45:59
It's, they're still describing it as an awkward injury. I mean, if he's out for more than a month, like, the wheels might fall off of this thing, right? I think it's a good team, but yeah. Uh, Chiefs nine.
46:10
[laughs] This is the, I love the, love the reactions that me and you both had to this game, and look how much lower I have the Chiefs and how much higher I have the Broncos than you. It's wild.
46:18
Uh, Chiefs, look, I, I think they could be good. It's still Patrick Mahomes. I think he's awesome. I think there are still major holes on this roster. Um, I'm not, I'm not sold on the pass catchers yet.
46:27
I think the defense still has some work to do. Uh, Jags eight. I, I, I'm kind of with Drew on this team.
46:32
I don't know how much further back we should have them from, from the top teams in the AFC, even though I have a few in front of them. They could end up being very good again. Bengals seven. Whoa.
46:40
Okay, defense showed up. Wow. Caused some turnovers. Let's see. I'm a believer in this offense still. Wait and see on them, though. Bears, I have six. Some of these teams, Gil, it might just not matter.
46:50
The offenses might be that good. Maybe. Maybe. And the Bills, you had up there, too. I would say the same thing about the Bills, which I have two. Texans are five. Broncos are four.
46:58
I'm still a long-term believer in this team. Rams three, Bills two, Ravens one. Okay. You save your voice for college football guessing lines? Let's do it. Also- Always... Survivor deep dive week two coming up.
47:09
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