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Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
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0:00
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0:30
Ladies and gentlemen, Joe Sheehan joins us now to talk some baseball with us. You can follow him on Twitter at Joe Sheehan, or @joesheahen, pardon me.
0:37
Joesheahen.com is where you can find the Joe Sheehan newsletter as well. It's Joe Sheehan, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
0:43
Uh, Joe, uh, before we get into baseball, and by the way, good morning, you are not, uh, not averse to playing, like, fantasy football as well, right?
0:52
No, um, I, in fact, I ac- I actually think I enjoy it more 'cause I don't put as much pressure on myself. I'm actually not a great fantasy baseball player.
0:59
I know you guys have Jeff Erickson and Nick Whelan and Paul Spoor and some real fantasy experts on here, and you know, I'm, I can't get out of the real baseball mindset.
1:06
I used to play in industry leagues, and I would kind of mostly get the, my butt kicked. Fantasy football to me is easier because, well, fantasy football's just easier.
1:14
But it's just, I feel like I'm, I have a better, I do a better job of getting out of my real baseball head and just playing fantasy football. So I had a good weekend.
1:23
I, I got, I had Colston Loveland, and of course, you know, he, he famously got shut out this weekend. I still managed to squeak out a bunch of wins, so I was pretty happy about that. Oh, nicely done. Okay.
1:31
Uh, let's talk Major League Baseball. Let's see. I know you have a play for today, but I'm really interested in your two futures, and by futures, I'm, we literally have a less than a two-week horizon on both of these.
1:42
The first one, you are stick- uh, I am, I am really impressed by your stick-to-it-iveness on both of these. One, Tigers to make the playoffs at 60 to 1. Talk to me. Yeah, stick-to-it-iveness.
1:54
That's what my ex-wife used to call it, stick-to-it-iveness. [laughs] Not stubbornness, not optimism. That's right. [laughs] Um, you know, there, there's a big range on this.
2:01
I saw as low as 30 to 1 for the Tigers to make the playoffs. I saw 60 to 1. Um, I, and I, I think I, I had them 60 to 1 at, uh, at MGM, uh, and that's what I gave out today, and I just...
2:12
The Tigers control their own destiny, and if you look at, you know, we talk about monthlies. They're eight and four this month. They're one of five, I think five teams with eight wins.
2:20
Since they got Riley Green back, they're eight and four when he starts. He missed a lot of August with a hamstring injury.
2:25
And you know, I've been giving you t- the Tigers, I feel like, all season because their underlying numbers are so good. Guys, they still have the, they have the third best run differential in the American League.
2:34
I mean, it's just- It's incredible... it's really some- And, and of course, you know, they're 71 and 79. The big thing for me is they control their own destiny. Two more game. They won last night.
2:41
They had the big comeback win last night against the, uh, the Jays. Two more games in Toronto, one of the teams they're chasing. And then four this weekend with the White Sox, and, you know, the White Sox won last night.
2:50
Um, so we'll see what happens, you know, with the west side series of Cleveland. But
2:54
I, I just look at this team, and I still think that even without Schoop, even without Meyer, they're still one of the best teams in the American League. And one of these teams has a surprises, right?
3:04
You know, we've seen the Padres rip off eight in a row. One of these teams is gonna do something like that, like the Cardinals back in 2021 winning 17 in a row.
3:12
And I look at the Tigers as the team best positioned to do that. Again, it is certainly a long shot. You know, you look at FanGraphs perspective, they're talking about a very low playoff odds chance.
3:21
But because they control their own destiny this week, because they've played so well since Green has come back, and because they have the fundamentals of a playoff team, I think 60 to 1 is just too big a number.
3:31
I think that's a really generous line, uh, for a team that is perfectly capable of finishing, you know, going six and one this week, even 7-0, and completely changing the conversation.
3:39
And when you look at the teams ahead of them, Gil, uh, just, you know, look at the Guardians, look at the Sox, look at the Blue Jays, the Rangers, the Orioles.
3:46
Do any of these teams strike you as, oh yeah, they're gonna go on an eight in one run? No, they don't, but yet, as you point out, there's a reason why it's 60 to 1, right?
3:54
Tigers four and a half behind the Guardians- Yeah... who currently inhabit the number three wild card position, and obviously the Jays, the Rangers, and the Orioles in between.
4:03
They've got to overcome those four teams, Guardians, Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles, with 12 games left in the season.
4:09
It's a four and a half game, uh, difference between the team i- on the inside and the Tigers on the outside. Uh, you, you alluded to last night's game. José Soriano, six innings of no-hit ball against the Tigers.
4:23
Blue Jays up two to nothing, and then they, the Tigers just crush them in the seventh. They end up plating four runs.
4:30
Blue Jays retook the lead on a three-run shot, late to go five-four, and then the Tigers end up winning it six-five. Brutal for my Blue Jays September bet, by the way. Good for your Tigers September bet.
4:40
Uh, and then the other one that you are really still about Bobby Witt Jr. to win AL MVP at 80 to 1. What say you? Y- We had to have one more fight about AL MVP before the season ended.
4:53
[laughs] This is about fading Yordan Álvarez. Um, he's minus 1500, 93% or so in, in the market, and I just think that's far too high a number, so I'm looking around for another option.
5:03
I've given out Kevin McGonagal at 100 to 1. He actually is the leader in baseball reference WAR among position players, and let's assume that they're not gonna give the MVP to Cam Schlitter.
5:12
I mean, I think you're starting to see some buzz on him, but, you know, he, McGonagal by baseball reference WAR is the best position player in the American League.
5:19
Álvarez, look, my thing all year, if he wins Triple Crown or if the Astros win the West, he'll, uh, be the MVP. Neither of those things is a lock right now.
5:28
He's actually five points up on Chandler Simpson in average, two back of Caminero in homers, four back of Alonso in RBIs. He might not win any of those categories.
5:37
And the Astros, you know, they're a game up on the Rangers. We'll see how they finish their season. Here's the other thing. Álvarez had the ankle injury. He missed two games over the weekend.
5:44
He's actually hitting 206 with two RBI in, in, uh, September. Now, I'm not saying he c- he can't go off over the next two weeks, and that might very well happen. But let's say he doesn't.
5:54
Let's say he doesn't play well over the next two weeks.
5:56
Now you've got a guy who's, like, fifth in WAR, who maybe didn't play for a playoff team, who didn't come anywhere close to a Triple Crown, and who played poorly in September You really gonna give the MVP to that guy?
6:07
I think the chance that his case looks really bad in two weeks is certainly better than 7%, which is what the market's pricing him at now. So looking around, Whit is at 80 to 1.
6:17
Um, I think if, if, if we end up with this fractured MVP vote, the guy who leads in FanGraphs war and is one of the two top, uh, candidates in, in, uh, Baseball Reference war is gonna rise to the top.
6:28
This is like the Tigers. It's really a math play. I just... The downside of Alo- of Alvarez right now is fairly considerable. I just don't think you can give
6:38
an MVP award to a bat on a non-playoff team who didn't play well in September. I just, that's too many demerits.
6:44
Yeah, I, listen, I understand directionally what you're talking about because there's definitely been a slowdown with Alvarez. He didn't play a couple games here recently.
6:51
Uh, definitely that Triple Crown looks like it's not gonna happen. Astros floundering. Who knows if they even make the postseason, so I get that.
6:59
I wonder, though, if your theory better applies to Junior Caminero in the end as a first place team guy, right, as well, who is challenging Alvarez for more of the sexier stats.
7:11
But, but directionally I totally get what you're talking about, and I do agree that Alvarez is way too highly priced on that. Before you, before you go, Joe, 'cause we only have 30 seconds, you have a play today.
7:21
You have a prop for us. Yeah, Jakob Mizerowski, uh, under eight and a half Ks, big juice at the long place. I saw minus 142 with DraftKings.
7:29
Under this number for the last five, uh, starts and really managing his innings. Guys, he's 38th in the National League in innings in the second half.
7:37
I know he's gonna win the Cy Young Award, but the Cy Young Award is a lot easier to win when you barely pitch. I don't think he's gonna go deep enough in tonight's game to get to nine strikeouts. Joe, always a pleasure.
7:47
Super appreciate it, man. Yeah. Always thought-provoking. Thank you so much. Thank you. Y'all take care. Joe Sheehan, everybody, uh, author of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter.
7:54
You can follow him at joesheehan.com and joe_sheehan on Twitter. Interesting. The, the Alvarez thing is we'll get into the MVP talk a little later on in Cy Young.
8:04
We'll do our heat check here with less than two weeks left, and we'll get into the numbers. But Alvarez, he, the, the Triple Crown is, feels dead. Mm-hmm. He would have to have an explosion here last- Yeah...
8:14
10 days of the season for that to happen. Futak, the emperor of college football news, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
8:26
You can follow him on Twitter @petefutak, F-I-U, that's Florida International University, T-A-K. That's right. That's Thiago Agustin Tirante. Oh, no it's not. Quirante it would be. I messed that up.
8:37
Pete joins us now from the heartland. How you doing, Peter? I, I'm with you. I, I don't like the college rule. I think it's, if you trip and fall, it's kind of eh. It's...
8:46
I, however, I like the one foot in rule on a catch for college. I don't like that f- the two thing, two foot in for the pros. But yeah, when you're down, you should have to be touched.
8:56
And my other question for you here in your MVP talk, I've always screamed that we should be voting for the Heisman after the season.
9:05
I've never understood why, if the entire season should matter, why the MVP, the MOP, the whole thing shouldn't be after the entire season is over and not the regular season.
9:16
What do you, what say you on, like, baseball- Okay, do you-... regular season? 'Cause if you're the best player, doesn't it only matter, you're, you're taking out the best games of the year to be the MVP of the season?
9:27
Oh, you mean you want it to continue through the postseason? Right. Is that what you're saying? Yeah. Oh. Well, you know, some of them are not gonna be in the postseason, so it, it sort of unevens the playing field.
9:37
Then he's not very valuable then, is he? Well, that would be w- that would be one interpretation of that, sure. You are entitled to that interpretation. Now, you say that as a Heisman voter yourself.
9:46
What is the deadline- I do... for Heisman voting? It's always befo- it's like taking the te- it's like taking a test for a history class and you weren't taught whether or not, you know, who won the war. You know?
9:57
It's like, okay, this is great, this guy was really good in the regular season, but these aren't the games that matter really now. It's, uh, but I've never won that argument with any other Heisman voter.
10:07
They're like, "Oh, this is a regular season award." [laughs] It's like, well, okay, I guess. Well- This is the way college football works, but...
10:14
since you bring it up, Pete, uh, I know you're not supposed to share, but can you just at this earthly stage, there's probably no harm in suggesting to us who you like early right now.
10:23
Who, who, who's caught your eye in the Heisman race?
10:26
Well, what's weird is the guy, the two guys who have had the Heisman moments are probably the lowest on the list here, and they're, they're not probably not even on the list.
10:35
Like, I said, I, I kind of n- no joke said, "If you really wanna go wacky, Bryce Underwood had a Heisman moment. Whether you like the Michigan thing or not against Western Michigan, he was good.
10:46
His stats weren't great against Oklahoma, but he was really good against Oklahoma, and he's got a bunch of big games to go." Arch Manning I thought had a Heisman moment for that fourth quarter against Ohio State.
10:58
Stats weren't great. Like, oh, look, you know, he was bad the whole game. Well, yeah, Ohio State's defense is kind of awesome. Let's see what he does going forward. That's, that's kind of cheap.
11:06
I mean, for me right now, Josh Hoover, 'cause he's gonna have the stats, he's gonna have the big chances, he's gonna have the big moments. But to win the Heisman, you have to obv- obviously, you have to have a good team.
11:18
You gotta have the stats. But Mendoza last year did not have the big giant stats compared to most Heisman winners, but he had the big Heisman moment with that comeback win over Penn State.
11:28
So at the moment, I still go with my preseason call of Josh Hoover. Uh, but right now it's, you know, CJ Carr's looking great. Darian Mensah's setting the table for that game against Notre Dame.
11:39
So, uh, wide open race at the moment. Uh, does Malachi Tony making the Heisman pose three times make you wanna vote for him more or less? Uh, yes, more.
11:49
No, it, uh, look, I vote, I like him more than I liked Travis Hunter from a few years ago. So I guess, you know, I still refuse to acknowledge that Travis Hunter won the Heisman, but, uh- [laughs]... no, Tony's great.
12:00
[laughs] He's awesome. Right now it's the quarterbacks. It's, uh, it really is about who are the stars 'cause there's so many good quarterbacks out there. Dante Moore obviously exited the building.
12:12
Uh, John Mateer exited the building. So let's, we got these massive games coming up, and the key to this whole season's gonna be Notre Dame and Miami.
12:20
Both of them are gonna be screaming towards that big game in November, and then the winner of that's probably gonna be, be the leader in the clubhouse.
12:28
The other guy to watch, Jayden Mayer from, uh, USC, has been on fire so far. He gets Oregon in two weeks, and if he lights them up, all of a sudden he's right in the mix.
12:38
Okay, from last weekend, I, I did a whole thing yesterday at the end of the m- Monday Guessing Line show about Ryan Day and Steve Sarkisian at the end of that game between Texas and Ohio State, and how they both were, they just both played it brain-dead, in my humble opinion.
12:55
[laughs] Yes. And, uh, d- does that, as a college football guy, does that drive you crazy as it does those of us who watch both pro and college? Like, it was just as dumb as- Oh...
13:06
as dumb as some of the pro coaches are, that was just malpractice from both of those guys.
13:10
I, I know they won the game, but it was my line, you know, the Bobby Knight line of, "Oh, we were in big trouble and I looked down on the other side of the bench and there was Dale Brown.
13:18
I knew everything would be okay." Well, I've got to imagine that, you know, the Ohio State coaches look across the field and go, "Oh, there's Steve Sarkisian. You know, this is gonna be all right."
13:27
What bailed them out, and I c- I said this all throughout last year, these quarterbacks are so freaking over-coached.
13:36
When you just let them go back there and be a quarterback and just, you know, s- kite the ball, find the guy, throw the ball. Arch Manning is awesome at that.
13:46
Arch Manning, when you just, when you finally take all the 5,000 things going through his head that he's being coached up to do and say, "Hey, Arch, go out there and lead the team down the field," he was awesome at that, and he let it rip in the fourth quarter and kind of, you know, un-Sarkisian-ed himself here.
14:02
But you're right, but the, the crazy part about that game too is, and this is the, the thing that drive coaches nuts in this, you know, $100 million world of, you know, these rosters and things, comes down to a kick.
14:13
Three of the last four Ohio State games going back to, like, 2022 I think it is, have come down if the guy hit the field goal for Ohio State, Ohio State wins.
14:22
Ohio State has, like, one loss in the last three and a half years if the guy hits the field goal. So same thing, guy hits the field goal, then they win this. But the defense couldn't figure out how to stop Arch.
14:33
They got gassed, and a great win for Texas, obviously, but you look at the rest of Texas' schedule, it's pretty nasty.
14:40
You look at the re- the rest of the Ohio State's schedule, they still get Michigan, they still get Indiana, they still get a bunch of nasty teams too.
14:46
And as we found out through the college football playoff world, if you're nine and three, you're in big trouble for being in this thing. So Ohio State can have one more loss, probably can't have two.
14:55
Two questions, uh, a minute on each here. One, could it be that Oregon is just mediocre at football after Oklahoma State dominates them? Yeah. I mean, it, and I, the, the comp is Penn State of last year.
15:10
I was telling, I thought Penn State was the team last year 'cause they had everybody coming back from the team that got to the, you know, the college football playoff final four.
15:18
You had Drew Aller, who had been around for 10 years, and you had all these different parts that were great. It, it seemed like that was Penn State's year, and it turned out, eh, they were just kind of not great.
15:29
Well, it just seems like, and Oregon still has all the talent in the world. Dante Moore hasn't shown up yet. The team hasn't shown up yet. I'm not sure why they are so lethargic and logy going out there.
15:41
But to your point, they might not, just not be that good. But they have all this talent back from the team that last year got close, lost to Indiana.
15:50
Okay, Indiana turned out to be great, whatever, but they just have not shown up yet. They still have obv- they obviously still have time.
15:57
They're gonna crank the holy hell out of Portland State this week, but then they gotta go to U- USC. That's not easy now.
16:04
So if you look at the Oregon schedule, it's gonna be really hard for them to run through this with tal- a team as talented as it, as it is. Oregon just gets by Boise State, gets blasted by Oklahoma State.
16:14
Uh, okay, and then LSU, Ole Miss, the Lane Kiffin Bowl. What do you got here?
16:20
You know how the world of AI and you get these whistleblowers who are out there yelling at, "Look, the robots are gonna kill us," and, you know, who's listening?
16:27
I am screaming to everybody, you're, we're not getting just how awesome LSU is. This is, this is, no, no, no, well, maybe Alabama, maybe, you know, Georgia. No, no, no, no, no. LSU is so freaking good. They are so fast.
16:42
They loaded up through the portal. As long as Sam Levitt can stop throwing these weird interceptions, LSU's just gonna be a monster all year long. I think they roll into Ole Miss and take this.
16:52
Wow, it sounds like you're laying the three then, just to clarify? Yeah? Yeah. Okay. Pete Fiutak, CollegeFootballNews.com, a treasure trove of college football info. Thank you, Pete. Good to see you, man. Later, guys.
17:03
Pete Fiutak, everybody. Drew Denzi kind enough to join us as always on Tuesday for two segments. Not one, but two.
17:09
He is the Whale Capper, whale_capper on Twitter, Deep Dive podcast, which he does with our buddy Andy Molator as well. We gotta get Andy on as well. Mm-hmm. Andy gets the short shrift here, Drew. We do.
17:18
Uh- We'll bring him back in.
17:19
Drew, let's, uh, let's, let's revisit, 'cause you had a, you've had a break now to think of the, uh, the answer to the question I asked, which is, if, first of all, you said, first thing out of your mouth was Cardinals and Giants are gonna be proper reactions to the good.
17:31
You actually like both of those teams. [laughs] Um, that's, that's its own category. We, you can riff on that too, but what you, you thought about the most account-damaging overreaction from week one will be who? Um,
17:46
believing in the Jets looks like it's gonna be a problem to me. Uh, the Jets are down to three and a half. Um, op- you know, look ahead there, it was six and a half. Um,
17:58
if you wanna go to war with, uh, Frank Reich and, and Geno Smith, good luck to you. Enjoy...
18:06
much more of a reflection, I think, of a well-prepared team against a, a team that's just not really competing this year in week one.
18:12
Uh, I think the Green Bay, New York Jets game is gonna be fascinating to see how this market evolves this week considering you can get Green Bay at this kind of a cheap price. Um, I think anyone...
18:22
I don't, uh, uh, at this point now, I'm just gonna put words in people's mouths of potential reactions that I think would be stupid. Uh, if you assume that, uh, Houston's defense is not gonna be, um,
18:33
you know, the- Really?... a, a, a top five unit, I think you're gonna be sorry that you make that call. Agree.
18:38
Uh, I think if you, uh, if you are jumping to the conclusion that, uh, that, um, that Dallas is not gonna be a contender, I think you might be sorry. Uh, if you are jumping to the conclusion that, uh, um,
18:55
that S- Cincinnati's offense is good because they scored a bunch on [laughs] Tampa Bay, you might end up being sorry. Agree. Um, there's a c- that, there, there weren't...
19:05
I didn't think there were many, like, real serious, um, uh, you know, kind of, uh, you know, d- mis- misdirection signal, uh, uh, you know, at least in week one, um, outside of the handful we've mentioned. Okay.
19:22
And you think Cardinals and Giants are the real deal? Well, at least real deal relative to their market price. Mm-hmm. Yeah, absolutely.
19:30
Um, the, the Cardinals in particular, um, this time last year we would've said they were around a neutral price team. Um, they're a stronger roster now.
19:41
Um, they proved to you that, uh, that they were pretty, uh, prepared for the start of the regular season in week one.
19:49
Uh, and now they're still getting, um, you know, getting treated like they're a minus four, minus, minus three, minus four, uh, as far as fair price, uh, up against the Seattle team with Drew Lock in week two that I'm, I'm, I'm not exactly sure warrants much more than a plus one.
20:04
Um, so yeah, the, uh, the Cardinals, I think, have been upgraded a hair, but not enough.
20:10
Uh, and I think if you do upgrade the Cardinals aggressively, you're gonna bear fruit this next couple weeks while people still kind of treat them as, uh, an also-ran. Uh, the Giants in the same boat.
20:20
Um, [clears throat] little surprised that they're [clears throat] still catching seven against a, uh, a Rams team that's gonna be without Miles Garrett.
20:27
Um, and just in general, uh, kind of nuked the early part of their season with their stupid travel decisions.
20:33
Um, and yeah, I would, uh, uh, expect that any team that's controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball early in the season's gonna reap some success.
20:42
And, uh, you know, pretty clearly that's what the Giants were able to do on Sunday Night Football at home, and now we get to see if they can do it on the road against a travel, uh, travel-weary team.
20:51
Week two, and l- I guess I'll start by hearkening back, 'cause I promised I would ask this. Let's start with Survivor. You gave an impassioned- Mm...
20:58
speech last week about the Steelers and using them in Survivor, which ends up getting bite. First of all, do you feel, [laughs] do you feel a lot of relief from that performance? Do you feel vindicated?
21:10
Oh, yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Okay. I had a ton of, uh... I, I had a ton on Steelers at, uh, three, three and a half, um, on top of all the, every s- every...
21:19
I shoved Steelers in every Survivor entry, uh, across all of my- Hoo... options. So- Well played... yeah, I was, uh, I was pretty, uh, I was pretty relieved.
21:28
And hon- you know, I kept telling Andy this, but my favorite play of the week [laughs] by far was the T.J. Watt pick six. Um, because in that moment it was like, how is this game possibly in the balance?
21:39
Cooper Rush cannot play quarterback. What is going on? And it was, uh, it w- the futility of the Aaron Rodgers experience was just, uh, it was such a tough hang.
21:47
Uh, and thankfully it didn't even really come down to that. So, uh, I was very, very relieved there. Um- Yeah... and happy to have used the Steelers and not have to think about them for the rest- That's right...
21:57
of the season [laughs] when it comes to Survivor. T- T.J. Watt, T.J. Watt bailed us- So very happy about that... bailed us all out, that's for sure. What about this week in Survivor?
22:05
Um, yeah, I think you're, you're basically probably splitting entries between Bucs and Niners.
22:10
Um, I know that there's probably some people who will make the case for the Chargers and this being sort of a back-against-the-wall type of moment, uh, and to use the Chargers this week, but I s- I'm still very unconvinced that they have anywhere close to a functional interior offensive line, so I'm gonna pass on Chargers this week.
22:28
Uh, I'm gonna pass on Ravens this week as well. I think Ravens are sort of the huge favorite on upset alert against the Saints. Um, Ravens will be without their top two wide receivers in this one.
22:38
Um, I know Bateman probably is considered a top two wide receiver on that team, but I think pretty clearly through preseason it was the Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane show, and I don't think either guy's gonna be available for this contest.
22:49
Saints, on the other hand, uh, I thought what they looked like in the second half was much more of a, you know, kind of the...
22:54
They got the, the early, uh, you know, extended preseason jitters out of the way, and I think that team's gonna, uh, be able to go toe-to-toe with a really good Ravens squad. Um, I took the nine, plus nine there.
23:05
I think plus eight and a half is still a fair play, um, just, uh, as a neutral side, uh, on the Saints. And, uh, I think they could be the stinker, uh, this week in terms of, uh, busting some survivors.
23:16
A, a portent of our Survivor s- uh, segment coming up, a lot of what Drew just said there is going to be corroborated by our analysis later. Let me just hint at that. But we'll, we'll do Survivor later.
23:28
Okay, so your picks, you've just gave us one. You're on the Saints plus the points against the Ravens. Yep. Anything else that you've bet? Teased, teased two earlier.
23:36
I think Cardinals plus four is a bet against the Seahawks. My fare there is, uh, just- Geez... under three. Uh, I took the Colts, six and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. Ooh.
23:47
Uh, I think this is, uh, a little bit of a overreaction to the Chiefs winning last night. Um, I took the Giants. We teased this one. Uh, I took them plus seven against the Rams. Uh, a little sidebar here. What...
24:01
Uh, did we all go... Like I, w- w- am I ima- imagining that, like, a huge portion of, like, the NFL info space was going, went out of their way to really try to give the Rams credit?
24:13
For what was one of the dumber plans that has ever been cons- like, c- like, constructed for traveling to Australia. Um- Were you saying this beforehand, Drew? That the, that you thought it was super dumb? I, I, I was.
24:25
I, I thought this was... I, I would've been hammering the table this was, like, the betting angle of the, of the season, except that the Niners had just so many injuries and were getting hurt, like, in practice.
24:35
And I was like, "God, man, if they were healthy, like, God, this is such a good s- spot, the Niners." I, I didn't play it, and I regret it. But, like, like, th- just think about, like, for a second, the Olympics.
24:47
They've contested the Olympics in, in, uh, in that part of the world before. Mm-hmm. Like Tokyo, not that, not that, uh, uh, uh, far back in time. Did the US Olympic team- [laughs]...
24:57
keep our track and field runners in Los Angeles until 24 hours before the 100 meters and then fly them to Tokyo and run like they're on Pacific Time? No.
25:08
They took them well ahead of time, got their bodies adjusted to the state and place that they were going to compete in, and they competed well. Like, I, I did, I never, I...
25:19
There were so many examples of NFL teams going to Europe and stinking when they do this quick travel thing. The Rams did a quick travel once.
25:28
It worked out well, and now they acting like they're the f- like weird, this weird, they've busted science and they know how to, like, kind of trick the body. Like- Well, you know, I-... it was absolutely ridiculous...
25:37
as early as- I thought that whole experience was ridiculous... as early as August 10th, I did a deep dive analysis, not to steal your podcast name. Sure.
25:44
I did a deep dive analysis on the travel, and I went back to all the international games in Europe. I threw out Brazil and I threw out Mexico, but I did all the Europe ones. Sure.
25:52
And the team that arrived earlier, I think this, this, w- I think there were 17 and 9 ATS or 16 and 9 before. I can't rem- if this went to 18 and 9. But this, with the early, the early arrivals, ATS- Yeah...
26:05
have a- Yeah... had a good record. Now, is that a, is that a good samples, enough sample size? Probably not. Does this one game prove anything? Maybe, maybe not.
26:13
But you know Ed Feng's sleep science lady, she said- [laughs]... the Rams were doing it right. She said that. Uh, ha, yeah. Yeah. I, I, I'd, none, none of it checked out to me.
26:21
And I, honestly, the 17 and 9, I think that some of those 17s were just non-competes, right? Like, the game- Yeah... was just not competitive. Yeah. And that was what we saw.
26:30
Uh, and yeah, I, I, I'm still shocked by that. Uh, last couple of, uh, angles for you. Please. I took the over in Panthers-Falcons. I think that's gonna go over 44.
26:38
I took the under in Bengals-Texans, 46 and a half under for me. Uh, and then last play for me, I took the Vikings five and a half. I think they are competitive against the Bears.
26:48
Competitive against the Bears, who are exactly who we thought they were- Exactly... or would be. Yes. Great offense. When Ben Johnson tells you he's gonna break the scoring record, you should listen.
26:58
[laughs] He's- Is kind of my takeaway... he really means it. And the defense, not very good. Thank you, Drew. As always, Drew Dincic, everybody. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
27:11
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
27:16
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
27:24
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
27:30
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
27:37
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
27:46
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
27:55
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. All right, you ready to do this?
28:11
'Cause everybody's sh- everybody's tweeting out classic rock stations. Let's do it. Survivor. Hit it. I'm a survivor. Thanks, B. Thanks, Kelly. Thanks, Michelle. And we are survivors. You're welcome.
28:25
We are, we are s- oh, yeah. [laughs] She's a little more attractive. [laughs] Just a- Just a little, though... okay, here's what we do. This is a Numbers Game tradition.
28:33
Uh, we didn't do it for week one, because week one we had the whole off-season to talk about it, and there's only really three big favorites, and good God, we hadn't seen actual live football. Here's what we do.
28:42
Uh, in any given week, I will take the biggest favorites on the board, I will put them up on the screen, and we'll put up the point spread versus who they're playing this, this week.
28:51
But we'll also put their future value.
28:54
In other words, we'll put up other games in the remaining schedule, and obviously most of the season still remains at this point, that are other opportunities to perhaps play them later in Survivor. Future value.
29:06
Now, you're gonna... There's some subjectivity to this, because as I said earlier, there's gonna be some teams I include in future value that you might disagree with.
29:12
There's gonna be some teams that I omit that you think should be included. Sure. So there's a little bit of that. But this week there happens to be eight favorites of five and a half points or more on the NFL slate.
29:24
It's crazy. So this is a, this is gonna be a chunky little graphic here with very little typing. Uh, very, very little, uh, I should say font here on, on the, uh, on the... What's the word I'm looking for?
29:34
We're even missing one, right? Uh, three, six, eight. No, that's correct. Eight teams. Okay. Bears, right? Uh, I did not include the Bears. Yeah, okay. They're five and a half, I'm just saying. Okay.
29:45
I did not include the Bears, 'cause I don't, I don't trust that defense. Yeah, no, I, uh, we kinda hit on that with Drew. I would not be considering them this week either. Yeah. But yeah, five and a half over Vikings.
29:52
All right. So the biggest favorite on the board, and I'm gonna put a green check mark, a red cross... Oh, God, I keep saying that.
29:58
A red X or a gray side by side next to it, meaning it is a absolute survivor play that I will consider, it is absolutely one I will not, it is one I'm s- And the, and the gray is I don't know. Still considering.
30:10
Still considering, but not as strong as the green check mark. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right Drew said it earlier, Rams 13 and a half point favorites at, uh, hosting Miami. 49ers. What did I say? Rams. Rams. Okay, Niners.
30:22
Great start by me. [laughs] Niners, 13 and a half point favorites hosting the Dolphins. Why, why Rams came into my mind is because this is obviously post-Australia. The Niners don't get the Monday night game.
30:33
The Niners get a Sunday game, but it is at home, it is against the patsy Dolphins. Would you consider playing the Niners? I would.
30:41
And part of the reason, not just because of the big point spread, and not just because I'm wiping the Australia and the travel off the board, 'cause I was the one who said, "Hey, where I think- Mm-hmm...
30:49
their strategy with Australia is going to hurt them," was in subsequent weeks. Again, having traveled to Korea, not to Australia, I know that's how jet lag affected me, really worse on the way back.
31:01
But it is the Dolphins. And the only other place you can really play the Niners that confidently is week nine, November 8th, against the Raiders at home.
31:13
So for me, it's the Niners and then the Buccaneers, who are tied for the second biggest favorite. They're eight and a half point favorites hosting the Brownies.
31:21
The only other place you can really play the Buccaneers with confidence, and many people won't even agree with this, to me is week six hosting the Steelers. Jason Stark, stop tweeting.
31:31
I know you're gonna be mad about that. That's October 18th. So for me, it's the 49ers and the Buccaneers above all, largely because there isn't much other future value.
31:41
But Drew made a good point off air about this, which is, and if you have multiple entries, don't shove on one of those. Probably split them up, because we can't anticipate what might happen down the road with
31:54
one of those, you know, who knows? Injuries- Yeah. Yeah, yeah... a team availing it, you know, appearing to be much worse than we thought they would be down the road. It's only one week after all.
32:03
So I get that sentiment. But Niners and Buccaneers for me are green check marks, absolutely going to be part of mine. Okay. Can I jump in here one by one? Of course. Of course.
32:13
I just, just before I say anything- Mm-hmm... I, I think I'm completely with you and Drew, and I will be going 49ers and Buccaneers and splitting them up. 49ers do have the Cardinals a week later.
32:24
Like, I, it's, it's, maybe it's one week, right? We're just like, we're talking overreactions, like I don't know. I'm with, I'm with Drew. I don't think they're a patsy. Okay. I mean, I don't necessarily think so either.
32:33
I'm on them this week, uh, as well. It's just one week worth bringing up, this was one of the teams with the lowest win totals out there. Uh, and the travel you brought up. Buccaneers,
32:43
a great fut- future sc- I think the future value is not there, but depends on how you view the NFC South, right? Like, maybe you think- I left out all the NFC South teams. That's exactly right. Yeah.
32:54
I, I mean- I made a, I made a subjective decision because I don't know how good the Panthers are. Right. I don't know how good the Saints are.
33:01
And I, I have to tell you, by the time the Falcons get their quarterback situation taken care of, I don't know how good the Falcons are gonna be. Me, me either. Me either.
33:09
So, so that's why to me, Cl- uh, Pittsburgh was more future value than any of those.
33:12
And then the only other one with the style of play that Cleveland plays, I, I'm a little worried, and look, I think I am going to be mainly Bucs this week.
33:20
I'm a little worried though, it's like, okay, what if the defense finally shows up? It just keeps it close enough, right? Yeah. But again, the Bucs should've beaten the Bengals. They just gave the ball up over- Mm...
33:28
and over again. Anyway, so 49ers and Bucs to me are green check marks. Who I am not playing, I'll do the four red Xs first. Ravens are eight and a half point favorites hosting the Saints.
33:37
As Drew pointed out earlier, I don't know, man. The Saints are a little too feisty for my liking, plus you have other opportunities- Yeah... to use the Ravens at Las Vegas.
33:47
By the way, they also are a Thanksgiving and Christmas consideration, so you have to consider, you, you have to, you have to be conservative with the Ravens, I think. So this is not- Me too... the spot for me. Me too.
33:56
Rams hosting the Giants Monday Night Football. Week nine home versus the Raiders is much better. That's enough for me to stick around, 'cause I don't know what I'm getting with the Rams at this point.
34:06
I really don't, and the Giants looked awfully feisty obviously in week one. Drop down to the bottom. Chiefs are six and a half point favorites hosting the Colts. There's way too much future value on the Chiefs to- Yep...
34:17
take a shot at them here. There's at Miami week three, there's hosting the Jets. They also have a Thanksgiving consideration, and week 20 if we [laughs] if you are lucky enough to get that far, they host the Raiders.
34:27
And I know that game could be fakakta, week 20, but you never know. Patriots are five and a half point favorites hosting Pittsburgh. I would have no problem with anybody playing this.
34:35
But for me, not the best choice because again, week five they host the Raiders. Week- Mm-hmm... six they host the Jets. Week 20, again, if you get all the way to January, they would be hosting the Dolphins.
34:45
I don't know, just there, there's other opportunities. The ambivalent ones for me, and I wouldn't have any problem with anybody playing these, and I'm considering them,
34:54
besides the 49ers and Buccaneers, which are at, which are absolutely goes for me in Survivor. To s- to, to what f- you know, what my distribution will be, I have no idea. But 49ers, Buccaneers are absolutely a go.
35:06
The two teams I'm ambivalent about could go either way. Chargers, seven point favorites hosting the Raiders. Chargers obviously beaten by the Cardinals last week. There is a week 11 game hosting the Jets.
35:20
There is a week 18. By the way, when I say 18, in circus survivor, what I'm referring to is 18 out of 20. Right. Because there's obviously- Good clarification, yeah...
35:30
because there's obviously Thanksgiving and Christmas. 'Cause I know when we get to those, we, we count them as like As and Bs, so we end up on week 18, but for our purposes, we're just gonna go one through 20.
35:39
So the 18th shot will be at Miami. So there's a home Jets game, there's an at Miami. Do I really trust the Chargers home versus the Raiders? Kinda, kinda not. I don't know what to do.
35:51
And the other ambivalent one, the other one where I'm, I'm shaky on but I think I might consider, because I already bet them, Eagles minus seven at Tennessee. There's a lot more opportunities to use the Eagles.
36:01
There's a home Carolina. Carolina's pretty good. There's a home Eagles, uh, excuse me, home Steelers in week 11. There's a Thanksgiving and a Christmas consideration for the Eagles- Oof...
36:10
so you wanna be conservative with them too. But like if you told me you were playing the Chargers and the Eagles- Yeah... I wouldn't hate you for it. Okay, so yeah, th- love it.
36:17
I think the easy cross off then with you on Chiefs, Ravens for sure. Uh, and Rams too. I, I, I think, I, I think that's an easy cross-off for me.
36:27
I, I think though if you wanna play the whole overreaction game, eh, okay, I'm more okay with that one. Chargers, and I like what you said about the Patriots too. 'Cause Patriots I bet this week. Yeah.
36:37
I wouldn't have a problem with anybody going with that one. I think it, for me personally, it will be a skip and I'll look further down the line with them. Yeah. But I, but I bet them, so I like it this week.
36:45
Is there a scenario where the Steelers veteran defense could mess with Drake May? Yes. Enough for me to say, "Yeah, I'll just wait on it." And no A.J. Brown, right? And no A.J. Brown. So who knows?
36:54
Maybe you wanna see a week of them more. I think the, the Chargers and Eagles are interesting.
36:58
And I, I, like the Eagles, Eagles I think would be very much in play for me this week if with that, if the holidays weren't a factor. If they didn't have a Thanksgiving and a Christmas,
37:10
I would consider them more strongly because I, as I said yesterday when I made the bet on them at minus seven at Tennessee, how are the Titans gonna score on that defense? Right. Yeah, man. Yep.
37:19
What's, I mean, team total under whatever their number is, team total under on the Titans. Anyway, that's Survivor. I like it. Week two. We got a whole rest of the week to think about it some more.
37:28
Coming back on The Numbers Game. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability. And it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
37:39
Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
37:46
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
37:52
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
37:58
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
38:07
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
38:15
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
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