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Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:39
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 189. Gil Alexander, LA Breadline- Hey... in the hizzy. What's happening, man? Not much, dude.
0:23
Enjoy- How you doing? Enjoying Monday Night Football? No, not at all. Not at all. It's terrible. Sorry about that. Awful. Apologize. Uh, we have a good show.
0:30
We'll talk about Monday Night Football between the Broncos and Chiefs here momentarily, but a good show today. Joe Sheehan will join us. He is firing with baseball plays.
0:39
Ooh, he's coming in hot with a couple long shots for you. Including a, uh, including an MVP play that he just won't quit. [laughs] We'll get to that here later this hour.
0:48
Peter Futack, college football, get his thoughts on the debacle that was Ryan Day v Steve Sarkisian at the end of the Ohio State-Texas game the other day. Should we be worried about Oregon?
1:01
You know when I, when I said to everybody when Oregon just got by Boise State- Yeah... I remember saying to College Football Hardos, I was like, "Shouldn't I be worried?" They're like, "Nah, Boise State's good." Mm.
1:08
Mm-hmm. Okay. Mm-hmm. Let's see after Oklahoma State what they have to say.
1:10
And I, I have been confused by that Dante Moore decision for nine months, and oh boy, if that just, uh, keep racking up some losses, it's gonna be a painful decision.
1:18
Uh, Drew Dincic a little later on, National Football League, week one in review, week two moving forward of course with Drew, uh, from the Deep Dive podcast. Mark Borchardt a little later on.
1:27
Uh, and then two staple segments that we do every week of every football season, which I'm always pumped to restart. Hell yeah, me too, man. One is my brain, one is my brain on crack- Yep... as Dion used to say- Yeah...
1:39
about baseball and football. I don't even know if that applies, by the way. Um, one's just our power rankings, which is always amusing. I mean, early in the y- early in the season. Yes. It's fu- right?
1:49
'Cause we, I don't know about you, but, like, you gotta pick and choose how we're ordering these and what, how much are we drawing off the priors, how much are we drawing off week one- Yeah... right?
1:58
I am really trying not to overreact to week one. Me too. Me too. Um, so we'll do our power rankings.
2:03
And then it is our first dedicated Survivor segment, not just the reviewing the Circus Survivor numbers, but this is us now looking forward to week two. Yep. What I do is I, uh, isolate the, uh, the biggest favorites.
2:15
And by the way, it's like half the schedule is big favorites this week. Okay. So just quick early thought on this before- Yeah... I mean, 'cause it's gonna be later in the show. Uh, yeah.
2:24
I was going through, like, my options. I'm like, man, there's a lot of big favorites this week, and none of them am I ha- that, like- [laughs]... like, rushing to play this week.
2:32
Well, so what I'll do is we'll, if there's eight of them, l- there's literally, literally eight of them. Um, last week there's only three big favorites, right? This, this week there are eight of them.
2:41
What we'll do is I, I will put the, uh, the green check mark... Fir- first of all, it's subjective, right? Because I'm, I'm doing future schedule, future value- Mm-hmm... for all of them. Mm-hmm.
2:50
And I'm going to omit some teams that you might think are bad that can be picked on, and I'm gonna include some teams and their future value that I think they can pick on that you might think are good.
2:59
So there's a little subjectivity in that, but generally speaking, I'm gonna put forward the, uh, the future schedule for everything, because schedule's our future. That's redundant.
3:06
[laughs] So I'm gonna put that through, and then I'm gonna put either green check marks next to them as a possible pick for this week, red crosses, red Xs rather, not red crosses- Yeah... 'cause that's something else.
3:17
[laughs] Red cross, red, red Xs. Different organization. And then the sort of like middling gray east-west thing- It's the, "I don't know"... which could go, "I don't know." It's Tuesday. That's right.
3:26
Give me, give me some time. [laughs] I don't know. Do you know, do you know how many times I changed my mind? I don't know. I had three Survivor entries. Do you know how many times- Ugh...
3:34
those three changed between Tuesday last week and when I submitted on Saturday?
3:38
You know, I'm glad you said that, because I bet there, there's a lot of people, thousands of the 25,000 in, in Survivor Classic anyway, and I'm sure this happened in Grand Dynasty Mode too, I'm h- sure it happened in the Survivor around the country,
3:50
where it was a bit of musical chairs for people- Yeah... in what they ended up finally landing on. Mm-hmm. And if they just, you know, if they ended up with the Chargers, you ended up with the Chargers.
4:01
I mean- If you didn't-... I'm just realizing this right now... if you didn't, you feel like a genius. I'm just realizing this right now. Th- thank you to Atogwe, 'cause if he was not ruled out of this game- Oh, bro...
4:11
I don't know that I, I don't think I would've played the Steelers, and I would've played the Chargers instead.
4:15
Well, one of the things, the very first thing I'm gonna ask Drew when he's on today is, because remember, Drew gave a passionate speech last, an impassioned speech last week about how he couldn't believe more people weren't gonna be on the Steelers.
4:27
Turns out a lot of people were. Mm-hmm. How confident he was that the Falcons stinkola. And in the end, does he feel like he got away with one, or does he feel corroborated by his handicap?
4:38
Oh, I feel like I got away with one. Oh, I do too. But yeah, we'll see what Drew has to say. I do too. [laughs] You weren't as impassioned as him, so we'll, we'll talk to him about that. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah.
4:44
As far as the game last night, Kansas City 31, Denver 10. Bo Nix 17 of 28 for 131, a touchdown, a pick. Three fumbles, only one lost. Mm-hmm. A pick, yeah.
4:56
And then there's this guy, Patrick Mahomes you may have heard about before. Mahomes, I believe it's pronounced. 15 to 27 for 184, two touchdowns, one pick, and a rushing touchdown as well.
5:07
Uh, it started out Denver third play of the game, third and 11 at their own 34. Nix immediately picked over the middle by Mansoor Delane, the rook. He would later go out, though, with an injury and not to return.
5:18
La- later, or was that his last play? Uh- I'm not- I... Was it his last play or did he play one more drive? It w- it was, it was one or the other- I th-... but very quickly left, and has, we have not seen him again.
5:29
MRI scheduled for today. Yeah. A great pick, though. Diving. Mm-hmm. Uh, Kansas City set up at the Denver 46, 10 plays, eight of which were rushes. Kenneth Walker III, welcome. Yeah, serious.
5:41
Fourth and two at the Denver 38, by the way, on that drive. Walker for, uh, with his fourth straight carry to start the game, got four yards, six plays laters after, uh, six plays later after a holding call.
5:49
Mahomes in from 15. Kelce got away with a brutal hold there. Seven to nothing Kansas City, 8:11 left in the first quarter.
5:56
It's funny, with my, uh, my brief- my beefs about the NFL after the week one Sunday, officiating wasn't even one of them Right? It was kickoff returns. Mm-hmm. It was field goal length.
6:07
It was just the number or the amount of points scored. I didn't even focus on the officiating. Well, last night, the, the officials were like, "Hold my beer." Missed the hold on Kelce. Mm-hmm. Denver, though, responds.
6:15
Seven plays, 68 yards, 4:23 off the clock. Nick to Ingram from 19 out. We're tied at seven, 3:48 left in the first quarter. Then after a Kansas City three and out, Denver from the eight.
6:24
They punt, in part because of a phantom hold on Pat Bryant. Did you catch that? Yep. We're just calling... We're just gonna call random holds on the Broncos. I mean, it's just like, I'm not, like, I, I...
6:34
We could sit here and argue about that one. Maybe there was something there. It was very light, though. Very light. I'm saying this as a guy who might have bet the Chiefs before the game. It was, I was like, "Oh, boy."
6:44
[laughs] Okay, so not Kelce- I, I just-... but yes on Bryant... it just feels like you rarely see that called on a running play that gets bounced outside like that. Um, Kansas City would punt. They...
6:53
Denver, the next drive, three and out after Bryant, speaking of him, dropped a surefire first down on second and four. That was bad. That was bad. Another Kansas City punt.
7:01
Denver three and out after a very odd play call on third and one at their own 32. Yep. So there was that. I'm ma- I'm trying to make a point here by this play-by-play.
7:11
Like, I thought a lot went against Denver that can be easily fixed. Phantom hold, bad play call on third and one, um, just a drop by Bryant.
7:21
Like, all of these drives was, were self-inflicted or official ref- uh, inflicted wounds- I-... in the first half. I agree. A- and I know we got plenty more to go through.
7:31
I think through the course of the game, though, I think this play calling situation is something to watch for in Denver. Uh, after that, Kansas City said, "Fine, you don't wanna score? Here you go."
7:39
10 plays, 80 yards, 3:02 off the clock. Mahomes to Rashee Rice, breaking a tackle from 13 out. Denver's tackling was awful yesterday. Big play on the drive was Walker scampering for 28. 14 to seven, Chiefs.
7:50
That would be the score at the half. Kenneth Walker III, 14 carries for 89 yards at the half. Two catches for 16.
7:57
Next gen stats, over twi- uh, la- as of last night, it was over 20 missed tackles by the Denver Broncos in this game. Is that good? That is not good. Oh, that's... I'm being told- And, uh-...
8:06
being told that's not good... my, myself and the Broncos are probably apologizing today of, "Sorry, Kenneth Walker, we did not give your, you enough credit," apparently.
8:14
Oh, r- remember when we did their season previews from, and a lot, largely based on the FTN Almanac? Mm-hmm. That Kenneth Walker, I'll get these numbers, not precise, but out of, like,
8:25
200-plus broken tackles for the Seahawks offense last year, Kenneth Walker had over 100 of them by himself, and it was third amongst running backs in the NFL in terms of broken tackles.
8:37
He is a criminally underrated back. Yeah. And Kansas City sure do that. Kansas City gets the ball first, up 14 to seven to start the second half. Fourth play, fourth and one at their own 40.
8:48
For people of a certain age, this has John Riggins Super Bowl XVII vibes for you. Around the left side, shedding a corner, breaking a tackle, touchdown. 60 yards to the house. Riggins was 41 to the house, by the way.
9:00
Somehow eluding that tackle at the end. 21 to seven, Kansas City. What was that attempted tackle? 12:43 left in the third. Denver then starts at their own 36.
9:08
They get to third and two at the Kansas City 39, but they get flagged for a delay call. Uh, just another... You know, the, the broken tackles are one thing, but you can't keep doing this on offense. No.
9:17
That's unforgivable by Nick there. They can't connect with Waddle on third and seven. They have to punt again. Then Kansas City pinned at their own three. Here's where Denver had a moment of, uh, happiness.
9:26
First play, Mahomes throws it over the middle over everyone. Picked to, by Brandon Jones. He returned it to the Kansas City five. First and goal. Holding on Bryant- Ugh... sets the Broncos back.
9:37
Second and goal at the nine. Nick scrambles left. Ball slips out of his hand. Chiefs with a chance to scoop, but Snead's foot is out of bounds when he makes contact with the ball, so they have to settle.
9:44
The Broncos due for a Lutz 31-yard field goal. Made it 21 to 10 halfway through the third. Next drive, Kansas City, third play, third and six at their own 37. Mahomes to Kelce for 59.
9:53
The guy's lost, like, 2.75 steps, but somehow he got 59 yards downfield to the four. But Kansas City can't punch it in. They just have to settle for a Butker 28-yard field goal. So they trade field goals.
10:02
24-10 Chiefs, late third quarter. Then Denver matriculates to second and six at their own 45, and offensive pass interference on Troy Franklin, who absolutely extended his arms. Yeah.
10:12
[laughs] That would nullify a would-be first down. Two plays later, third and 15 at their own 35. Nick sacked by Felix. Anudike Ozoma fumbles, recovered by Chris Jones. Kansas City set up at the Denver 34.
10:22
First play, fourth quarter, third and five at the Denver 29. Mahomes to Emmit Johnson, fighting for 25. Half the distance, unnecessary roughness call tacked on.
10:29
Then Mahomes in a three-point stance pitches it forward to Walker. Touchdown, 31-10. That is how it would end.
10:35
It was, it was sort of an academic, like, mid-third quarter or late third quarter on, you almost didn't have to pay attention to this football game. I didn't watch the final s- final few minutes of the game.
10:44
It just, it, it was like- It was over, yeah... it was background music at that point. It was over. That was a cool play, though. Fields was on the, on the field too, right?
10:49
You had Mahomes and Fields in three-point stances. We're, we're gonna talk about this game after the break more. Yeah. But I really f- listen, and I'll, again, I'll say this. It was, it was a very up-and-down weekend.
10:59
S- Saturday morning, great college football. Rest of the day college football, miserable till Texas had the miracle win. Mm-hmm. Sunday morning NFL, miserable. Afternoon, really good. Night, really good.
11:11
[laughs] Yesterday, tennis bad. Night football good. Like, it's just been all over the place. I, like, I was the exact opposite. Yeah. Fri- S- uh, Sunday early window, awesome, amazing. Oh, I was the opposite.
11:21
Ever since then to the NFL, it was bad. Oh, so I'm the exact opposite. But I really felt, even as a guy who ended up on the, on the Chiefs of the bet yesterday, I really felt like
11:30
that you, we cannot go crazy about that Broncos performance. And we'll hit some AFC West odds on the other side. Yeah. Let's- I think we've overreacted a little bit already.
11:37
'Cause, 'cause just going through that play-by-play- Yeah... there's at least five things in there where the Broncos is like, "Okay, let's maybe-" Mm-hmm... "n- get the play off before zero.
11:45
Let's maybe not get called for a phantom hold," you know, that kinda thing. Coming back on a numbers game right here at VSiN.
11:50
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Football, this just in, special numbers game investigation reveals is back.
12:08
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12:11
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12:29
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12:38
I w- I wanna read this one tweet because we should probably do a better job of this, me and you.
12:42
Programming note, this is from LFC Title Records, 'cause a lot of people on Mondays, the first Monday of guessing lines, run into this.
12:48
Programming note, Monday episodes of A Numbers Game are found under the Beating the Book podcast feed. Uh, luckily, he says Chance Copperpot filled him in on Dr.
12:57
Bob's under lean via the Discord, via, via Wishneff's Discord, never a doubt on the under. So on Mondays, the guessing lines, what we do is we throw the guessing lines onto the Beating the Book feed.
13:07
We really should put the other parts onto the A Numbers Game feed. We gotta remember to do that next time.
13:14
But that's, Mondays, just remember, if you're still, if you're looking for the whole show, go to the Beating the Book feed, at least the, the, uh, the majority of the show. Yeah. All the football stuff.
13:22
The guessing lines parts. The guessing lines parts. Uh, by the way, Jonathan Doe says, "Please explain what the heck a hizzy is." You see, there's this word house, and then I stupidly just say hizzy.
13:31
[laughs] Uh, and then Ma- [laughs] You didn't ex- You remember, our North Star is it doesn't have to be, uh, good, it just has to be really, really stupid.
13:40
Fals- I've, uh, I've also gotten so used to you saying that, I didn't even- [laughs] Like, I, I don't even know when you said it earlier. Matthew Mayberry, "I also had the Steelers in survivor.
13:47
Maybe I'm wrong, it's just me, but I never felt like the Falcons were actually gonna win the game." It's not about whether the Falcons were gonna win the game. It's about whether the Steelers were gonna lose the game.
13:57
How about that for you? Excellent clarification. [laughs] Well done. Uh, did you see this, by the way? No. We'll get, we'll get back to Denver and Kansas City for a second.
14:05
You see this story that after the Broncos lost Bo Nix to a fractured ankle in their overtime playoff victory against the Bills last year, Denver's then offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and offensive assistant Pete Carmichael had discussions with Drew Brees about the former star quarterback coming out of retirement to be ready for the AFC Championship game.
14:25
That was the one Jared Stidham ended up starting. Sources telling ESPN yesterday, Brees apparently went as far as working out for them, but found discomfort in his wrist and nixed, no pun intended- Hey...
14:37
nixed, nixed the idea that would've become one of the most prob- improbable returns in NFL history, according to sources. Drew Brees would have just turned, last year before the AFC Championship, 47 years old. Yeah.
14:48
So it would've been like the Philip Rivers thing followed by the Drew Brees thing, would've happened in the same season. Was that last year with Drew, with- Yeah... with Philip Rivers? Yeah. Right, yeah.
14:59
I should also note that the most interesting part about this to me is I immediately assumed when reading this, oh, it's got Sean Payton's fingerprints all over this, right? 'Cause Sean Payton- Mm-hmm, yeah. Sure...
15:08
and Drew Brees. Sean Payton was the guy who made contact. Sean Payton, according to them, knew nothing about this. Yeah, I was gonna say, his name was not mentioned in that at all, yeah.
15:14
It was- Sean Payton knew nothing about it. It, I, I just, I, I love these. I love these d- I, I could, I couldn't believe it when that report came down yesterday. Just a crazy story.
15:23
But then you gotta go through the basics of what it was. It's like, all right, great idea from the front office of the Broncos, and I, I guess Drew Brees went not to work out with the team- Right...
15:32
but just went to work out, like, to see if he could still do this. [laughs] It's like, "Ow, my wrist." And, and he was like, "Ow, my wrist. No, this isn't gonna work."
15:39
And, and John Lund, who, who produces shows on this network and helps us out early in the week, uh, uh, associated producing for us, reminding me of this story from a couple years ago.
15:49
Do you remember this, I mean, I wanna almost say tragic, but very sad story with Drew Brees openly admitting that his arm does not work anymore and he has to play catch with his kids with his left arm, with his left hand.
16:02
That's amazing. I mean, this was just, this was 2023 when he came out and said that. Did anybody milk more out of his height- Oh, it's incredible. Yes...
16:11
and his ability, and apparently, like, right to the end, and then his arm fell off. Mm-hmm. It's amazing. By the way, just to finish that story, Payton only heard- Wild...
16:19
Sean Payton only heard about the behind-the-scenes plot- [laughs]... to get Drew Brees back in the off-season, according to sources.
16:24
When he did, Payton thought his assistants were actually referring to a potential Brees return for a, like a Monday night game back in 2021 when the Saints had lost Jameis to a torn ACL, Taysom Hill and Trevor Simeon were on the COVID-19 list, and they were forced to have Ian Book make his NFL debut.
16:41
He thought they were talking about that. He's like, "What are you... Oh, no, that was Ian Book." Da... And then- Also, that feels like yesterday. 2021?
16:47
So when they clarified it for him, Payton goes, uh, Payton said he was fascinated and flabbergasted. [laughs] Okay. Uh, last night's game, Stuck- Hey, Stucky. We have a Stucky stat. Yeah. Hey, Stuck.
16:58
I've never met Stucky, by the way. I've never met him in person either. Yeah. Great work over at Action Network. Always does great stuff.
17:02
Stucky G- And geez, what, he's been on Tw- uh, sports betting Twitter for- From the beginning of time... from the beginning, yeah. Stucky2 is where you can find him.
17:08
Uh, he said, "Chiefs home unders now 27 and eight past five seasons. Kinda stupid," he adds. I've got another one. Is there anything to that, by the way? Ah, geez. I, I love these. I'm gonna bring up another one- Yeah...
17:19
where I think there's something more to this. Mahomes with a short spread, so mi- as a, as a minus three favorite or less, okay? Mahomes is 31, 13 and 18 against the spread. That does not surprise me.
17:33
Now, that doesn't surprise me as much- Yeah... 'cause it's, so, like we talk about a little bit with the fourth quarter comebacks, I'm like, it kinda depends for me, like, on who the quarterback is and the coach is.
17:42
Like, I trust good quarterbacks to, in the, in the long term, to win out in those situations. This one on the unders, I don't know. I don't know.
17:52
Uh, let's take a look at the AFC West odds after one week of football, one week of NFL football, where the Chiefs, uh, and Raiders won, but the Broncos and Chargers obviously lost.
18:04
And beyond the, the actual AFC West odds after one week, you know what I'm more curious about? Hmm.
18:10
It goes back to what I was just talking about at the end of the last segment, which is we just went through the play-by-play.
18:14
Unless you go through the play-by-play, you don't necessarily process how many things went against the Broncos that are not really sustainable things to the bad, right?
18:24
Getting the play on, off time is, uh, getting the play in on time, uh, before the, uh, play clock runs out, as I mentioned. Yeah.
18:30
Phantom hold, um, fumbling the ball as you're approaching the line of scrimmage on a scramble, on and on to the break of dawn with Travis Kelce not getting called for a hold on the other side.
18:40
So there was, there was tons of these things. Here, here are the odds, by the way, currently. Chiefs now your favorite minus 115. The also 1-0 Raiders. [laughs] Plus 1250. By the way, way too short. Just looks funny.
18:53
Way too short. Yeah, really, [laughs] seriously. Then the Broncos plus 260 and the Chargers plus 390. Um, pre-flop, the favorite, the short shot was what? The Broncos? No, no, no, it was Chiefs- Chiefs...
19:04
Chargers, Broncos in that order. Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos. Yeah. But the Chiefs were plus money. Yes. Yes. Okay.
19:10
Is there, by the way, is there anything that you saw last night or this weekend that you definitively now... 'Cause this gets to the broader question, and this is what I'm more interested in- Mm-hmm...
19:18
AFC West and beyond. Yep. 'Cause we always talk about week two is overreaction week. Yeah. And I just mentioned the Broncos. People are... Yeah, I know the missed tackles are bad. I can't defend those.
19:28
I think they could probably clean those up. They're supposed to be one of the two best defenses in the NFL. Mm-hmm. Right? What's the biggest overreaction of any of the 32 teams that you think people will have?
19:38
And I think the Broncos are up there, to the good or to the bad, by the way. I think the Broncos are in the top five of the, are, are gonna be top five biggest overreactions after that performance.
19:49
Rams could be one of them, too, obviously, Australia. Yeah. But I think people kind of comp- I think people process the Australia things, right? They're like, "Ah, it's Australia game." Man, that's a great question.
19:59
I think it's going s- I still think it's going to be Rams the most. Yeah. I, I- I, I, and then I think it's- I think that's-... I mean, I think it's Chargers after that.
20:09
I, I, look, you know what I love real quick just to, like, kind of, you know, you know, put a bow on this game? Meaning you, meaning you think people are gonna think the Chargers are worse than they are? Yes. Yeah.
20:16
See, I think it's the, I think it's the Broncos after last night. I think people are going to more dramatically turn on the Broncos after- Number one? Even over the Rams, or you're saying them behind the Rams?
20:24
'Cause I'm just saying the Rams, people will say, "Oh, well, it was travel," so they can sort of reconcile that in their minds. "Ah, they didn't, you know, it was Australia. They didn't really play a preseason," right?
20:33
So I don't think they're gonna overreact. I think with the Broncos on a standalone game, people are gonna be like, "They stink." I think a lot, a lot more people will say that than they will about the Rams.
20:45
Maybe the J- [laughs] maybe the Chargers actually do. I don't know. Well, I, that, that's all I was gonna say.
20:50
I, I mean, like, look, I think there's, there's fair questions about both of the Broncos and the Chargers that people brought up even as potential concerns heading into the season that, yeah, these don- doesn't look good in week one.
21:02
But yeah, I, I mean, I, I expect both those teams to rebound. I think there is gonna be... It's, I don't know, it's Mahomes and the Chiefs. A- and you're bringing...
21:11
I love that we were on opposite sides of this last night. Yeah. Because honestly, you saw some things that you're defending the Broncos for- Yes... that I, you know, through the- In a winning bet...
21:19
right, through the lens of me betting on the Broncos- Yes... I'm far more critical on, it feels like. So I'm glad to actually hear you say this.
21:25
I, I guess the, the nature of the question is, take the Buccaneers, for instance, right? The Buccaneers just turned the ball all over the yard against the Bengals and really didn't get blown out- Yeah...
21:34
even gifting them all those turnovers.
21:37
So I think more people who watch football can process that and go, "Oh, well, yeah, they were minus three in turnovers, and Baker Mayfield was loose with the football," and so I think the Bucs are probably better than that performance.
21:47
By the way, the Bengals probably not as good as that performance, right? Sure. 'Cause they were gifted a whole bunch. Sure.
21:51
But I think the things last night were way more subtle, and that unless, again, we do this exercise of going drive by drive and seeing, oh yeah, it ended, that drive ended because of that, that drive ended because of that.
22:04
Oh, I forgot, that drive ended because of that. I do think that that's the sneakiest one to overreact on, if that makes sense. Yeah, no, no, no, no, I know, it does. I, I'll throw out some other candidates.
22:15
Colts, Cowboys. But, like, I don't know. They'll, they might just not be that great. Cowboys' D, man. Right? It's like that's the one thing you're trying to s- you're, you're trying to improve the defense.
22:26
Everybody knows you're trying to improve the defense. Exactly, and it was terrible. And it was worse almost every game last year. Right. So I, I, I just don't, I don't...
22:32
I mean, I'm, you know, I'm saying five weeks from now, this might look like an overreaction, but I think fair concerns with them coming out of it.
22:39
I mean, I, Indy, there was a lot of people on Indy catching points at home against the Ravens. I still think the Broncos are gonna win the division. Me too. Me too.
22:48
Joe Sheehan on baseball next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A request to, uh, producer Kelly Bidlin.
23:04
Uh, maybe we shouldn't do the Average Joe read every Joe Sheehan segment. [laughs] Uh, season's underway, but there's still plenty of ways to win the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.
23:13
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23:18
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23:27
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23:31
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23:40
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23:49
Enter the contest today at vsin.com/joe. That's V-S-I-N.com/J-O-E. There you go. Hey, is this, is this the one that included a, a free studio tour as well last year? Oh, that is correct. Did we get rid of that?
24:02
Free studio tour or, or the- Nobody took me up on that, by the way Was it a, was it an appearance on the show or a free studio tour? I don't know. There was a studio tour in one of them.
24:12
I don't know if that was the Average Joe contest, though. I don't know. We get tweets. Pete of the Book, always appreciate it.
24:16
Primetime Leon Sanders, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, Drew Brees was on reserve/retired list and was still property of the Saints. Furthermore, he would have had to have been released/signed prior to week 14.
24:27
This story," in quotes, "is complete nonsense, could not have happened," in capitals. "Peace, love, and let's go Cowboys," he says. Are you serious?
24:33
So it's like, wait, is Drew B- is Drew Brees still not officially retired? We're, listen, we're just reporting the facts. Yeah. We're, we're just telling you what happened.
24:40
What, what, the machinations of getting him on the roster- Good call by him... that's, that's their problem.
24:44
Yeah, yeah, again, though, this is a story, a story that only went so far to one practice by Drew Brees and Sean Payton, like, I don't know- Did know a thing about it... kinda knowing about it, not knowing about it.
24:53
Mike Zill's Duke 90, "Yesterday I put four suture anchors in a glenoid to prepare, to repair the labrum and shoulder capsule, the most I've done this year.
25:02
Drew Brees had 12 suture anchors put in a 330-degree labrum tear after year two. Medical marvel that led to Saban to Bama." It's a great tweet. So in other words, Drew Brees' entire career is a medical miracle. Mm-hmm.
25:17
And of course, started the chain of events that led to one of the great what-ifs in s- sports history, certainly in football history, college and pro.
25:24
Uh, and then Ben McGovern, "The only thing I would say about the Chiefs is go scan their schedule. That last place schedule really benefits them." It really does. Yes, it does. Oh, I lied, one more.
25:32
Buddhist Man, we should save this for later. He goes, "The early season overreaction Super Bowl? Giants at the Rams. What was the spread leading into week one?" You're right, Buddhist.
25:40
As, as if we didn't have, like, actual numbers to tell us what the biggest overreaction is. Went from what, nine and a half to seven in favor of the Rams- Yes... after their respective week one performances.
25:51
Chargers, same thing, though. Chargers, same thing. Week two, overreaction week. Ladies and gentlemen, Joe Sheehan joins us now to talk some baseball with us.
26:00
You can follow him on Twitter @JoeSheehan, or @Joe_Sheehan, pardon me. Joesheehan.com is where you can find the Joe Sheehan newsletter as well. It's Joe Sheehan, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
26:10
Uh, Joe, uh, before we get into baseball, and by the way, good morning, you are not, uh, not averse to playing, like, fantasy football as well, right? No.
26:19
Um, I, in fact, I a- I actually think I enjoy it more 'cause I don't put as much pressure on myself. I'm actually not a great fantasy baseball player.
26:25
I know you guys have Jeff Erickson and Nick Whelan and Paul Spohr and some real fantasy experts on here, and you know, I'm, I can't get out of the real baseball mindset.
26:33
I used to play in industry leagues, and I would kind of mostly get, uh, my butt kicked. Fantasy football to me is easier because, well, fantasy football's just easier.
26:41
But it's just, I feel like I'm, I have a better, I do a better job of getting out of my real baseball head and just playing fantasy football. So I had a good weekend.
26:49
I, I got, I had posted Loveland, and of course, you know, he, he famously got shut out this weekend. I still managed to squeak out a bunch of wins, so I was pretty happy about that. Oh, nicely done. Okay.
26:58
Uh, let's talk Major League Baseball. And let's see. I know you have a play for today, but I'm really interested in your two futures.
27:03
And by futures, I'm, we literally have a less than a two-week horizon on both of these. The first one, you are stick... Uh, I am, I am really impressed by your stick-to-it-iveness on both of these.
27:15
One, Tigers to make the playoffs at 60 to 1. Talk to me. Yeah, stick-to-it-iveness. That's what my ex-wife used to call it. [laughs] Stick-to-it-iveness. Not stubbornness, not obstinacy. That's right.
27:25
[laughs] Um, you know, there, there's a big range on this. I saw as low as 30 to 1 for the Tigers to make the playoffs. I saw 60 to 1.
27:32
Um, I, and I, I think I, I had them 60 to 1 at, uh, at MGM, uh, and that's what I gave out today. And I just, the Tigers control their own destiny. And if you look at, you know, we talk about monthlies.
27:43
They're 8 and 4 this month. They're one of five, I think five teams with eight wins. Since they got Riley Green back, they're 8 and 4 when he starts. He missed a lot of August with a hamstring injury.
27:52
And you know, I've been giving you to the Tigers I feel like all season because their underlying numbers are so good. Guys, they still have the, they have the third best run differential in the American League.
28:01
I mean, it's just- It's incredible... it's really some... And, and of course, you know, they're 71 and 79. The big thing for me is they control their own destiny. Two more game. They won last night.
28:08
They had the big comeback win last night against the, the Jays. Two more games in Toronto, one of the teams they're chasing. And then four this weekend with the White Sox.
28:15
And, you know, the White Sox won last night, um, so we'll see what happens, you know, with the west side series of Cleveland. But
28:21
I, I just look at this team and I still think that even without Schoop, believe it without May, they're still one of the best teams in the American League. And one of these teams has a surprise, right?
28:31
And we've seen the Padres rip off eight in a row. One of these teams is gonna do something like that, like the Cardinals back in 2021 winning 17 in a row. And I look at the Tigers as the team best positioned to do that.
28:41
Again, it is certainly a long shot. You know, you look at FanGraphs perspective, you're talking about a very low playoff odds chance.
28:48
But because they control their own destiny this week, because they've played so well since Green has come back, and because they have the fundamentals of a playoff team, I think 60 to 1 is just too big a number.
28:58
I think that's a really generous line, uh, for a team that is perfectly capable of finishing, you know, going six and one this week, even seven and O, and completely changing the conversation.
29:06
And when you look at the teams ahead of them, Gil, I'm just... You know, look at the Guardians, look at the Sox, look at the Blue Jays, the Rangers, the Orioles.
29:13
Do any of these teams strike you as, oh yeah, they're gonna go on an eight in one run? No, they don't. But yeah, as you point out, there's a reason why it's 60 to 1, right?
29:21
Tigers four and a half behind the Guardians- Right... who currently inhabit the number three wild card position, and obviously the Jays, the Rangers, and the Orioles in between.
29:30
So they've got to overcome those four teams, Guardians, Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles, with 12 games left in the season.
29:36
It's a four and a half game, uh, difference between the team i- on the inside and the Tigers on the outside. Uh, you, you alluded to last night's game. José Soriano, six innings of no-hit ball against the Tigers.
29:50
Blue Jays up two to nothing, and then they, the Tigers just crush him in the seventh. They end up plating four runs.
29:57
Blue Jays retook the lead on a three-run shot, late to go five-four, and then the Tigers end up winning it six-five. Brutal for my Blue Jays September bet, by the way. Good for your Tigers September bet.
30:06
Uh, and then the other one that you are really still About Bobby Witt Jr. to win AL MVP at 80 to 1. What say you? Yeah, we had to have one more fight about AL MVP before the season ends.
30:20
[laughs] This is about fading Yordan Alvarez. Um, he's minus 1500, 93% or so in, in the market, and I just think that's far too high a number, so I'm looking around for another option.
30:30
I've given out Kevin McGowan at 100 to 1. He actually is the leader in baseball reference war among position players. And let's assume that they're not gonna give the MVP to Cam Schlinter.
30:39
I mean, I think you're starting to see some buzz on him, but, you know, he, he, McGowan by baseball reference war is the best position player in the American League.
30:46
Alvarez, look, my thing all year, if he wins the Triple Crown or if the Astros win the West, he'll, uh, be the MVP. Neither of those things is a lock right now.
30:54
He's actually five points up on Chandler Simpson in average, two back of Caminero in homers, four back of Alonso in RBIs. He might not win any of those categories.
31:04
And the Astros, you know, they're a game up on the Rangers. We'll see how they finish their season. Here's the other thing. Alvarez had the ankle injury. He missed two games over the weekend.
31:11
He's actually hitting 206 with two RBI in, in, uh, September. Now, I'm not saying it's a, he can't go off over the next two weeks, and that might very well happen. But let's say he doesn't.
31:21
Let's say he doesn't play well over the next two weeks.
31:23
Now you've got a guy who's, like, fifth in war, who maybe didn't play for a playoff team, who didn't come anywhere close to a Triple Crown, and who played poorly in September. You really gonna give the MVP to that guy?
31:34
I think the chance that his case looks really bad in two weeks is certainly better than 7%, which is what the market's pricing him at now. So looking around, Witt is at 80 to 1.
31:44
Um, I think if it, it, we end up with this fractured MVP vote, the guy who leads in FanGraphs war and is one of the two top, uh, candidates in, in, uh, baseball reference war is gonna rise to the top.
31:55
This is like the Tigers. It's really a math play. I just... The downside of Alo- of Alvarez right now is fairly considerable. I just don't think you can give
32:04
an MVP award to a bat on a non-playoff team who didn't play well in September. I just, that's too many demerits.
32:11
Yeah, I, listen, I understand directionally what you're talking about because there's definitely been a slowdown with Alvarez. He didn't play a couple games here recently.
32:18
Uh, definitely that Triple Crown looks like it's not gonna happen. Astros floundering. Who knows if they even make the postseason. So I get that.
32:25
I wonder, though, if your theory better applies to Junior Caminero in the end as a first-place team guy, right, as well, who is challenging Alvarez for more of the sexier stats.
32:38
But, but directionally, I totally get what you're talking about, and I do agree that Alvarez is way too highly priced on that. Before you, before you go, Joe, 'cause we only have 30 seconds, you have a play today.
32:48
You have a prop for us. Yeah, Jacob Mierkowski, uh, under eight and a half Ks, big juice at a lot of places. I saw minus 142 at DraftKings.
32:56
Under this number for the last five, uh, starts, and really managing his innings. Guys, he's 38th in the National League in innings in the second half.
33:03
I know he's gonna win the Cy Young Award, but the Cy Young Award is a lot easier to win when you barely pitch. I don't think he's gonna go deep enough in tonight's game to get to nine strikeouts. Joe, always a pleasure.
33:13
Super appreciate it, man. Thanks. Always thought-provoking. Thank you so much. Thanks, Gil. Take care. Joe Sheehan, everybody, uh, author of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter.
33:21
You can follow him at joes Sheehan.com and Joe_Sheehan on Twitter. Interesting. The, the Alvarez thing is we'll get into the MVP talk a little later on and Cy Young.
33:31
We'll do our heat check here with less than two weeks left, and we'll get into the numbers. But Alvarez, he, the, the Triple Crown is, feels dead. Mm-hmm. He would have to have an explosion here last- Yeah...
33:41
10 days of the season for that to happen. Uh, we will do all that and more. Coming back, more NFL. Drew Dincic will join us as well. It's a numbers game right here at VSAN, the sports betting network.
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34:46
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSAN, the sports betting network. College football's in full swing.
35:01
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35:07
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35:15
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35:28
We got tweets beating the book. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell from Circa. This is, uh, Shrek McPhee. "Broncos defense very good but they have to get another DB back.
35:38
As locked down as one half of the field is with Patrick Surtain, Riley Ma- Riley Moss does the complete opposite in every single way. He was responsible for two missed tackles on two touchdowns as well."
35:46
You know, it's funny 'cause Troy Aikman went out of his way to pump up Riley Moss on the broadcast last night. [sighs] You know what? He's one of those... I'm not gonna agree, disagree, 'cause it's just...
35:55
Sorry, I don't break down NFL secondaries for a living, right? Someone, someone smarter than me can do that.
36:00
I, I think it's an, he's an interesting topic, though, because some of the things that Aikman brought up, right? I heard that. Um, look, when you're, uh, when you're covering one of the best on the field, right?
36:10
And he's gonna usually cover him the second-best, like, you're gonna... And Surtain's on the other side, a lot of balls are gonna be thrown your way. So I thought those were interesting comments by Aikman.
36:18
But yeah, it's absolutely true in the tweet as well. Tony Hernandez: "Fellas, as a 40-year-old Chargers season ticket holder, I can tell you I've seen pretty much anything and everything, both positive and negative.
36:27
One thing I know for sure, it's only week one. Let's not get too carried away." Well, that was the whole point of the conversation, Tony. Yep, absolutely. "Chiefs looked good. Broncos struggled, as did the Bolts.
36:35
My hope is that the injury bug doesn't hit us like it usually does. AFC West certainly a tough division, but I don't think any team is an automatic division winner," I don't know what...
36:42
nobody said anyone was automatic, "until all the games have been played. I think the Chargers put a pounding on the Raiders this week." I, I mean, and maybe, Gil, and I didn't say it clearly enough- Yeah...
36:50
'cause we did jump around a lot that segment. Minus 115 is a little silly on the Chiefs at this point, right? Um, yeah, I think so. Yeah. It... I do. I totally think so.
37:00
Uh, Trojan Ram: "Yo, there is a, uh, good chance Kyler Murray does not suit up next week. Also, Wentz was pretty beat up in the win against the Pack.
37:07
Should Kevin O'Connell consider taking Fran Tarkenton out of retirement at the young age of 86?" Is Fran still with us? Is he still with us? I don't know. Let me check. What a scrambler.
37:15
That, that was when we- What a scrambler that guy was... that was the, uh, one you and I had the conversation off air. Like, the, there's the overreaction, underreaction stuff.
37:23
I have no idea what you wanna do with Green Bay and Minnesota after that game. Like- Jason, Jason McKinney. Oh, I don't either. That's what, exactly right. Like, there are some games- And Fran is still with us, 86...
37:31
there are some games where you're like, "I have no idea." I have no idea. I mean, you saw a lot of good things and a lot of bad things from both those teams in one game. Uh, Jason McKinney. Uh, how about this tweet?
37:40
"Does anybody know how to bet darts? I wanna know what I bet. I made my first dart bet, but totally by accident. Put my phone in my pocket at work without locking it. I made a butt bet. It was on darts."
37:50
Well, it's, uh- Angry emojis. Well, well, if y- you gotta bet that kid who's, like, 17, the English kid who's, like, 17 that looks like he's 38 'cause he's just dominating. But you know what?
38:00
We'll ask Drew Dincic next segment, 'cause I believe, I believe he dabbles from time to time. In darts? I think so. Come on. I think I've heard him bring this up before.
38:10
LFC Title Records, K- He might just laugh at the question too... Cam Schlittler down to 12 to one on Calci for AL MVP. Wow. He was roughly 100 to one on, on September 12th.
38:18
Shout out to, uh, Michael Monosono for putting me onto it. 12 to one for AL MVP. What, what did we just have, 80 to one, fellas? I think that's what we had on our graphic at DraftKings. That he's not gonna win MVP.
38:30
I mean, I, I guess the argument, after listening to you and your, uh- Yeah... y- the conversation with Joe- Can it, can it be splintered enough? Can the vote be splintered enough for someone like that to win?
38:38
I, and y- yes, and it's, like, it's there's... You guys are arguing over guys that sound like not good enough to go out and, uh, good enough resumes or cases to go out and win this award.
38:47
Well, I, I'm not arguing about that. What I'm saying is Yordan Alvarez shouldn't be as high as he is, but we'll go through his stats. You want me to go through them right now?
38:56
I mean, I think just, I think just- Or should we-... just listening to you and Joe, and you brought it up after him, like, it sure sounds to me like Caminero's the guy that- This, well, this is your...
39:03
Uh, yeah, that's my point. If it's not Alvarez, it's gonna be Caminero. But here's, here's Yordan Alvarez even with this swoon. By the way, he's minus 5,000. He has a 310 batting average.
39:12
That's the most in American League. He has 38 homers. That's tied for second in the American League behind Caminero's 40. Ben Rice also has 38. He has 96 RBI. That's second in RBI behind Alonso's 100.
39:25
So he's one, two, two in the Triple Crown categories. [laughs] He has a 427 OBP. That's first in the American League. He has a 589 slugging percentage. That's first in the American League.
39:36
In hits, he's second, 162 behind Yandy Diaz. In runs, I believe he's tied for first with, with Miguel Vargas at 95. So what... I mean, listen, that resume's still pretty amazing. What are we really talking about?
39:53
He, he, he's, he's drifted from awesome beyond belief, winning a Triple Crown, to, oh, he's first and second in all of those categories. Sorry. You know, so he should be the favorite. Okay. He should be the favorite.
40:07
Problem is the Astros better make the playoffs for him. I, well, that's, I mean, like- Yeah... we've sat here and had that discussion o- over the course of the season, right? The wins matter.
40:14
Where your team finishes matters- Yeah... more than we'd like to admit. I'm just saying, like, I just read through all those stats. He's pretty awesome. Yeah, yeah. Pretty awesome. Do we have Pete yet? No? No. No Pete?
40:27
We're having some internet issues. Uh, Jonathan Doe, back with us, said, "Regarding college football games, when handicappers/touts talk about games of the year, what exactly are they talking about?"
40:36
I'll tell you what they're talking about. They're talking some bull. It's just a marketing tool. There shouldn't be any games of the year. No such thing should exist.
40:48
And if they did, you wouldn't know them in a moment, 'cause you don't know...
40:51
Y- you wouldn't know them in the moment, 'cause you don't know what kind of edge you would perceive later if you were doing this correctly also on something in the future.
40:57
But it's just a marketing tool that tries to induce people to buy their selection by doing games of the month, games of the year. What was the question again? SEC game of the year. Just about touts?
41:09
Yeah, just about what, what do they mean when they say game of the year. Well, you do have, I, uh, the, I mean, difference between the touts and the books, right?
41:14
'Cause you do have books that will post, right, game of the year lines, right, for later in the season. I don't know if that's what they always call them, but- Oh, I, I, I- I mean, look-ahead lines. They, uh...
41:23
Different books will refer to them as different things. But I know, yes, the touts with the 10 star whale play- Yeah... game of the year. That's how I took it.
41:33
By the way, you wanna talk about- Bet it now, and if it loses, you'll get your money back maybe if you ever hear from me again. Since we were just talking about AL MVP, should I just do the P, because the P- Yeah. Yes...
41:40
Pete Crow-Armstrong in the NL MVP. He's not even listed anymore, is it? Should it be listed? Yeah, let me, let me pull it. Let me pull it up. Pete, Pete Crow- Let me see if I can find it...
41:46
Pete Crow, Pete Crow-Armstrong not even listed anymore, because he has 42 homers, second to Schwarber's 44. 102 RBI, third to Alec Burleson and Sal Stewart. And Jordan Walker. He's actually fourth. Pardon me. No, third.
42:02
He's b- uh, he's ahead of Jordan Walker. So he's third in RBI, 102. He has the best slugging percentage, 571 in the NL. The best OPS in the NL, 945. 37 stolen bases, second to Nunez.
42:15
It's 46, but the real point with, uh, with, uh, Pete Crow-Armstrong again, three stolen bases shy now of a 40-40.
42:23
And a 9.8 WAR according to FanGraphs, which is 3.4 better than anyone else in Major League Baseball, and even 3.1 better than Shohei's pitching and batting combined. And he plays for a playoff team. Yeah.
42:35
Peter Armstrong, we said it last week, we'll say it again. If he gets three more stolen bases, he is, he will become the seventh 40/40 guy in the history of Major League Baseball. The other- That's incredible...
42:46
the nu- the other names, Jose Canseco of the A's in 1988, 42/40 homers, stolen bases. Barry Lamar Bonds, Giants 1996, 42/40. A-Rod, Mariners 1998, 42/46. Alfonso Soriano of the Nationals, 2006, 46/41. Ronald Acuna Jr.
43:03
of the Braves in 2023, 41 and 73 stolen bases. And then Shohei in 2024, the only 50/50 guy, 54 and 59 homers and stolen bases. So that's thr- three... He's got 12 games, I believe it is, what the Cubs have left?
43:19
12 games to get three stolen bases to join that elite club. Man, that's a fun one to chase, 'cause like you know. It's not like home runs, right? Your three home, like what are you, what are you gonna do?
43:32
Like, you're just gonna swing harder, right? Like you're just gonna swing for the fences. It's awesome. More like stolen bases, it's just any time this guy gets on base now.
43:39
He- And of course the old-timers like Mickey Mantle famously said, "Well, if I..." He, he, his accent would be like, "Well, if I knew that was gonna be a thing, I would've done it every year." Right.
43:46
[laughs] Like, you know what I mean? [laughs] He's kind of right. Like when PCA gets on base, like it is, like we chase these things. Like we do chase these things. It's a fu- that's a fun milestone to hit. Yeah.
43:58
Um, so anyway, those are the MVP votes and, or, or MVP races. And I would agree again, Alvarez too high, but probably still should be a pretty comfortable favorite with all those numbers I just mentioned.
44:10
Uh, the Cy Young races real quick. Can we do the Tango numbers? Again, Tom Tango formula, innings pitched divided by two minus earned runs, plus strikeouts divided by 10, plus wins.
44:22
That has correctly picked the last 36 of 40 eventual Cy Youngs, though he did miss one of them last year by a, by a fraction. Jacob deGromski, 83.3. Christopher Sanchez, 73.7. The Miz is minus 2,500.
44:37
And Sale, by the way, in the betting market, is in between him and Sanchez. And then on the AL side, it's not as close as you think. Sale just hanging around there. Schlittler's 89.1 by the Tango numbers. Cease is 73.8.
44:53
Dunzo. What is- Not even listed... not even listed anymore. Yep. It's not, it's not- Or it's not at DraftKings... it's not as close as we thought it or many thought it is according to the Tango formula.
45:05
He's, he's- And according to the betting market. He's the only one I, I regret betting. Which one, Cease? Or, or reg- I'm sorry, regret not betting is, is, is Schlittler just like a few weeks ago.
45:16
Shout out Matt Humans, 'cause what was his number again? Like 100 something, right? Man, good job. And he wins the MLB Futures draft that we had based on that alone. Boom. I don't even know anything else. See ya. Yep.
45:26
Good job by him. Drew Dincic, NFL week one in review. Week two moving forward next on a Numbers Game at Vs and the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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