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Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
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45:49
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Transcript
0:00
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0:29
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:39
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 189. You gotten your, uh- Spam call. We, we should just make this a segment, right?
0:51
Do you get... Like, this is out of control across the country. Do you get as many as I do? Spam Likely is what it says on my phone. Spam Likely. Right, yeah, Spam Likely. Do you get as many calls from Spam Likely?
1:01
Not as many recently. Oh, man. But yeah, there was a period where I was getting Spam Likely every time. You, you know what? It is less than, like, six months ago for me, but it's still one or two every day. At least.
1:11
At first I was, at first I was like, "Blake Lively?" Blake Lively. Spam Likely. Where you at, Blake? I don't know. Uh, Tony Cook- Ryan Reynolds? Tony Cook- Who's she with? Yeah, Ryan Reynolds. I hear they're lovely.
1:24
Yeah, yeah. [laughs] Yeah, that's the word, right? That's the word. Tony Cook says we have a cr- he says, he says that at the end of sentences we say "right" a lot. Yeah, I know what he's talking about.
1:34
As in, as in, "Alvarez leads the league in homers and RBIs, right?" See, this is an interesting one, Tony, because I would say this isn't a crutch. We're having a conversation in a show.
1:44
When Gil use, uses it, he's usually legit asking a question. That's correct. Now, I know what you're talking about with me. Sometimes I just use it, like, in an exclamatory fashion. I'm like, "Right?" Yeah, he does that.
1:55
I do that. Yep. So yeah. Okay. Hey, don't we have, uh- Fair or unfair... whip-around games to finish? We do have whip-around games to finish. Yeah, I was... I, I made a bet in Yes! No! Playoffs.
2:03
We'll get to that in a second, so I'm excited to talk that. But four more games left. In the afternoon, 4:25 Eastern, Seahawks at the Cardinals. The Seahawks down to, man, three and a half at DraftKings.
2:15
You can find four and a half at FanDuel, and a lot of fours out there. 40 and a half to 41 and a half, your total for this game. This one, this one came to my guess, right? I had three and a half. This one drifted to me.
2:25
Um, Will just went with the Cardinals plus the points. I believe he had the Cardinals plus the points last week as well. Mm-hmm. Um, it's Drew Lock, man. Like- Yeah... I don't know. I mean, I, again,
2:37
uh, they did a great job, the Seahawks did, of game planning around Drew, or, or scheming around Drew B- Drew Lock in the second half of that game against the Patriots. Obviously it was a surprise.
2:48
Darnold goes down, Lock is in, but at halftime the adjustments they made were really good, which is to roll out Drew Lock a lot, get him on the move. He is very effective when he does that.
3:00
Okay, maybe not very, but somewhat effective when he does that. He's a tricky quarterback. He is a tricky quarterback. Yeah, he, he's... We, we had some tweets about it earlier in the week.
3:06
Uh, he's a guy that at certain points in his career I actually thought could be something. There was those moments. It's just he's never put it all together for consecutive weeks, it feels like. Um, look, this is...
3:18
Current numbers, I got no interest. I, I did take a little bit of the Cardinals on open. I... It was six and a half at FanDuel, and boy, that was... That felt egregious to me.
3:26
But like you said, come, it has come back to where you guessed it would be at, where I thought it would be at. I'm not rushing to- Nope... bet this again. I want nothing.
3:34
Brian Fleury, though, offensive coordinator, Seahawks, great job. Mm-hmm. Great job on that last week. Yeah, absolutely. Uh, 4:25 Eastern, last late window game. Dolphins at the Niners.
3:44
13 and a half point favorites are the 49ers. 45 and a half is your total. Okay. Niners are a survivor play, like with the Bucs. We talked about this extensively yesterday.
3:53
Circus survivor, whatever survivor league you're in in your neck of the woods in this country, but for those of us who play either Grandissimo, not us, Circus Survivor Classic, us,
4:03
I'm going Niners and Bucs in some combination. And yes- Yeah... they are not only the biggest... The Niners clearly the biggest favorite on the board. Bucs tied for the second biggest favorite.
4:13
But as we went through yesterday, the future value and lack thereof also dictates that those are plays. Dictates that those are plays, and meaning that there's not much future value- Mm-hmm... elsewhere on the schedule.
4:26
Again, there's a week nine home game for the Niners against the Raiders. There is a week six home game for the Bucs against the Steelers. Other than that, there really isn't...
4:35
Un- unless you think one of those NFC South opponents is by far worse than the others- Mm-hmm... or the Bucs, then there's other future value. But to me, those are the obvious plays.
4:46
So I'm playing the Niners in survivor. This was the play, remember, when we talked about the travel ad nauseam- Oh, yeah, dude... before, before the Rams-Niners game. Remember, the Niners requested a Monday night game.
4:57
The league denied them. Instead they gave it to the Rams. So the Niners are forced to play a Sunday game here after Australia. And remember, my theory was
5:06
the way that this is gonna hurt the Niners, the Niners approach to that game in Australia was it will actually hurt them on the way back. Again, when you've traveled that far, it takes forever to re-acclimate.
5:17
Like, two weeks. Luckily for the Niners, though, they get the Dolphins. Yeah. And so while I'll play them in survivor, I would not be too thrilled at laying the, the points, no matter how bad the Dolphins are.
5:30
I mean, this is... I f- I forgot to bring it up w- earlier when we brought up the Chargers, but I... Man, I wish our friend Matt Brown was here for what I'm about to say. But [clears throat] week two, we're...
5:40
It's the second week. Oh, boy, are we talking some spots this week, right? I mean, it is- Spots... Chargers, like, must-win to save their season- Oh... against the Raiders. Chargers for sure. Right?
5:50
And then, I mean, it... People that are into letdown spots, is there a much bigger one than the 49ers, what they have this week? [laughs] Yeah. We went all the way to Australia.
6:00
All this time that we spent over there to make sure we concentrated on beating the Rams. Job Accomplished. Yeah. Great win, massive blowout. Now come back to face the Dolphins.
6:13
That, you're supposed to get up for that game as a 13 and a half point favorite? Your body clock is still so jacked up it's not even funny. Having said all that, I have absolutely no interest in betting the Dolphins. No.
6:22
I'm just laying it out there. Oh, hell no. Like, I, both of those games- Yeah... did kinda catch my eye f- uh, from that standpoint. But I'll, but I'll play them in survivor. I will play them in survivor. Yeah.
6:31
Uh, primetime. Primetime, Sunday Night Football, Colts at the Chiefs. Chiefs a heavy six and a half right now. 46 to 47 your total.
6:39
The Matt Brown reference, by the way, for those who don't know, f- uh, is a reference to primetime action back in the day where one spot... W- W- We were talking NFL football- It lost me...
6:47
and I think you might have said- Yeah... or I might have said it is a sandwich spot or a letdown spot, and Matt Brown did a whole three minutes on how spots and the notion of spots aggravates him.
6:59
[laughs] The best was, it was just pure, it was true pure anger because- It was so angry... bec- because he said the word spots- Spots... at least, like, 32 times. He just kept screaming it.
7:08
Colts, Chiefs, I want no part of this game either way. No part of this ga- uh, game either way. Six and a half points.
7:16
I made the case for why I felt the Broncos really, whatever could have gone wrong yesterday did go wrong. I'm not willing to downgrade them.
7:23
That said, good on the Chiefs, but they did have, you know, a, this hold wasn't called. Yep. That hold for them was called. You know, it was just so many of those little incidents yesterday.
7:32
There was, like, six that I counted. So I don't know about the Chiefs yet. I also don't know about the Colts, to be fair. Sure. The Ravens might just be a truck. Yeah, they might be. So I want no part of this.
7:41
Okay, question for you on this game, 'cause I, I got nothing here side or total. I think at current numbers I will, I will not. What if this hits seven? Mm. Yeah.
7:52
[laughs] I just, it's just like you don't have to bet it, you don't have to bet every game. This- You don't have to bet everything... we have the question on the mega pal, "What's a game you want no part of?"
7:58
This is a candidate. Okay. I think I, I might be in a little bit on the Colts at seven. Okay. I'm in. Monday Night Football we have the... Not the game I'm looking at. Rams, right? Yeah, Giants and Rams. Giants and Rams.
8:12
Rams are seven, seven and a half out there. 47 and a half to 49. It sounds like Aaron Donald is ramping up targeting this week.
8:20
Some- someone on Twitter, forgive me that I can't remember who, but I, when I brought up the whole question with all y'all yesterday and saying, "What's gonna be the biggest overreaction," right?
8:30
I said it's gonna be the Broncos. This to me was the w- the, the tweet was, "This is the overreaction bowl." Mm-hmm. The Giants at the Rams. In other words, w- will people overreact and think the Giants are really good?
8:42
Will people overreact and think the Rams are really bad? Now, the counter to that is, hey, maybe, like Will said, maybe it is your job to actually react, and maybe the Giants are just that good.
8:52
And I will add, maybe the Rams just aren't the juggernaut that you think they're going to be. It's only one game. We don't know.
8:58
I'm more fascinated by this game than anyth- than any other game, but I will not have a play. Yeah. I, I think I'd be... I won't be stunned if the Giants look like a halfway decent football team.
9:09
Will you be stunned if they beat them? Yes. I will be stunned. Uh, where I was going with that is I will be s- I will be stunned if the Rams are, like, somehow not a great...
9:18
I, I just, I, I think where we left them last year, I... It, it would have to be a Stafford injury or Puka, 'cause I think that matters that much on that offense. Dude, Puka's everything. Right? Yeah.
9:28
He, like, he really is. What's the other thing? Well, let's look at make, miss playoffs. Is that what you wanted to look at? Yeah. Make- Made a bet. Made a bet. [laughs] Was that reaction? "Yeah." Made, miss playoffs.
9:36
He made a bet. After one week the man has made a bet, make, miss playoffs. Which is it? Pittsburgh Steelers- No... to miss the playoffs. Yeah, they're missing. Talked about this last week. I bet it last week.
9:46
Uh, I believe- Don't tweet us, Jason Stark... I believe TA rightfully, uh, tweeted it. It was like, "Maybe I'll get a little better price next week after they win."
9:52
Wasn't confident, fully confident they were gonna win over the Falcons. Uh, feel a little bit justified with that, so did add on a little bit better. It was Circa.
10:00
Look, that what you're seeing at the b- uh, on the screen right now if you're watching, that's DraftKings' odds.
10:05
That number I bet last week exactly minus 168 at Circa here, and it's minus 145 at Circa now, so I did add on a little bit. Anything you love here, though? I, I love, I love that one.
10:16
As, you know, you, you like to get a lot right in the off-season. I think after one week we feel really good about everything said about the Bears on this show. Mm-hmm. It was precisely how...
10:25
It couldn't have gone even more exact to the prognostication o- on the, uh, the prognosis on the Bears. I also think even with the victory over the Falcons, our take on the Steelers- Mm... remains after week one.
10:35
They could prove us wrong. It's only one week. Yep. But I just feel like they could be, they, they could be one of... They could be something even worse than bad, which is bad and boring. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
10:47
Which is a t- which is a r- a quiniela you don't wanna be. Kinda what they've been, right? Yeah. One, one other team I wanna bring up with you. Broncos coin flip, that's kind of attractive. G- Give, give me the yes.
10:58
Right? Give me the yes. That's kind of attractive. Yeah, minus 110 on the Broncos, yes, I'd take that. That, that's the other one I love there. Also wrote down, I mean, like, I like the Jags.
11:07
This is a lot, there's a lot of yeses, I know. Minus 136, that might be a little too heavy right now. Can we flash up the NFC one? Let's see if there's a NFC- Yeah. NFC was a lot more boring to me, I'll be honest. Yeah.
11:17
Lions are plus 194 to miss. That was a little interesting to me. Hmm. But a little may- I think a little too early in the season for me to make that bet. Yeah. You're right.
11:26
The, the Bears minus 150 to make, but- Not, not sexy enough on either side. I, I hear you. The, the, that Bears number's bad. I'm such a sucker for this Bears team already, though.
11:34
Like, I w- uh, if I had to make one yes bet it would be that. After one week against the Cowboys, would Giants backers leap at the plus 170 make? I'm sure they would. Oh, God.
11:44
But again, the Cowboys' defense was so bad, so I don't know. Chris Collinsworth, great job by him. Mm-hmm. Just, just detailing that in the Sunday Night Football game. Mm-hmm.
11:54
The Cowboys, your s- your defense is supposed to be better, and what was that w- by one metric at least it was worse than every game last year- Yeah... except for one. So yeah, not good.
12:03
You're right, the AFC was much more interesting. I like it. Steelers miss Broncos make... Broncos make Yep Those are the two best, I think, on the board. We'll come back, Nick Whalen will join us, Paul Spohrer.
12:12
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:14
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12:35
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13:01
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13:13
He said, "Question for Kelly. I agree with the spam calls being annoying, but how do you know it's not Sydney Sweeney calling? If it is, would you steal him or, or her away from, uh, Dave Ross?" He asks.
13:22
Mm, no, Dave can have her. Dave can have her. Okay. ThreeJacque, "Gil, how dare you adjust the Megapod recording time? I mean, it is T Wishnow's podcast after all, right?
13:31
Buccaneers and 49ers drawing over 30% of the, uh, bet online survivor picks in early action. What can go wrong, right?" Yeah. Yep.
13:40
Shooter McGamlin, "By the way, [laughs] this spot for the Niners is as bad as any team in the NFL." It's a bad spot. That's what I'm saying. I'm like, if you're a believer in that stuff, this is...
13:52
I, I can't, I can't remember one worse than this. Jason Stark tweeting anyway about the Steelers last week. He just goes, "You already know." Iowa Hawkeyes, "Love it, Gil. You don't have to bet every game."
14:02
Outstanding advice. ScrabbleStar, BiscayneDawg74, "Gil and Kelly, I also was getting blitzed with spam calls on my celly.
14:08
Then a while ago, I put my number on the Do Not Call list, which is still a thing, and a few months later, I was getting probably 90% fewer junk calls. Worth it."
14:15
I mean, like, I think I'm on that list already, but I guess it's time to check in. Thanks.
14:20
James Fessler, "Heard you reference it twice today, but should we be rooting for a baseball strike next year just so the phrase the 27 Yankees can remain historical lexicon?" That's a great point. Hmm.
14:31
Didn't think about that. As, so as if there would be confusion if we played baseball in 2027- Yes... and referred to the 27 Yankees. People would be like, "They were kinda mediocre. What are you talking about?"
14:42
Oh, you meant the 1927 Yankees. Didn't even think about that. What about the 1827 Yankees? Eh, we weren't playing baseball in 1827. Not, not quite yet. Just not quite yet.
14:52
Kelly Billin, who doesn't, uh, believe in anything before prohibition. There was somebody ready to take stats in 1827, though. Oh. Why? That was a base knock, wasn't it? Why do they talk like that?
15:03
[laughs] Do they talk like that in real life or just in media? I don't know [laughs]. I always do that voice too. Yeah. Do, "Man, Sidney." Paul Spohrer joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
15:10
You can follow him on Twitter @Spohrer, S-P-O-R-H-E-R.
15:13
He writes for FanGraphs, the Bible of online baseball statistic, statistical analysis, metrics as well, hosts the Sleeper and the Bust podcast, and of course, content designer for Out of the Park Baseball.
15:25
He joins us now, uh, from Austin, Texas. How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing well. I believe that's called a transatlantic accent. Oh, okay. But I don't really know anything else about it. Transatlantic. Really?
15:38
Is that what that's called? Yeah, the old, "Eh," yeah, that like, uh, that old-timey one that- Really? Like it's like- It's like the default one... in the middle of- Yeah, the default one. Yeah...
15:44
in the middle of a sentence, they, they just throw the word "why" in there? Whyyy. [laughs] They do that. Why, I tell ya. Yeah. Um, Paul wearing his Arizona Diamondbacks City Connect cap. We were having this- Right...
15:57
conversation about, uh, earlier- Mm-hmm... off air. When we were doing prime time action, Kelly, Matt, and I, so this is 2021, 2022, I guess 2021- Yeah, '20, yeah... '22, something like that.
16:07
So this was the, that was when they first did the City Connect. And I remember, like, the Red Sox one night. I'm like, "Oh look, guys, the Red Sox wearing their traditional yellow and blue tonight," right?
16:17
You say you like these uniforms. Okay, Grandpa, relax. [laughs] First off, that one has amazing connection- Yeah... uh, to the, to the marathon. It's not my favorite either, but I like it. Okay. It, it's a city connect.
16:30
It connects to the city beautifully. They're not all perfect, but a lot of them are excellent. In fact, the most recent Boston Red Sox one that is more directly connected to Fenway I think is brilliant.
16:42
I think maybe you're just sore 'cause the Giants ones have sucked. But that- Wow... don't make that everyone else's problem. Wow. Wow. Direct shot. But, uh, I think a lot of them are great.
16:50
I, I absolutely love this one here, which is of course the Diamondbacks, as you mentioned. I think the first Padres one was great. I have that hat as well. I have the first Marlins hat. Um, so I, I like a bunch of them.
17:01
I will say, you know, I roasted your team. I don't think the Tigers ones are great either. So they're not all hits, but I like that they're trying stuff.
17:09
I'm sure it's mostly due to just wanting to sell extra merch, but I really don't mind the City Connects. I think it's a good program. I hope they keep doing it, and I hope they kinda keep innovating on, on the uniforms.
17:18
Is there anything better than a feisty Paul Spohrer? Anything? Well, he's, he's right.
17:23
[laughs] I'm gonna check all these, and I'll let you guys know at the end of the segment, but he's absolutely right about the Tigers and the Giants both being bad. Speaking of your Tigers. Yes.
17:30
A little bit of a surge here. Spoiler. A little bit of a surge here. Just when we thought they were out, maybe- They pull me back in [laughs] Yeah, maybe they're pulling you back in.
17:39
I mean, they're still four and a half out, right? Right. Right. Four and a half out of a, uh, of a playoff position with only 11 games roughly left for everybody. They've won six in a row, though.
17:50
Can they do this, yes or no? No. No, no, no. Yeah. The far more important thing than the games out right now is the three teams ahead of them. It becomes about teams in front of you as well.
17:59
They need too much to go well for them. You know, if you... Imagine if they had, like, I don't know, an, an ace pitcher or something though. How crazy w- w- would that be?
18:07
Or like- I don't know, like a really solid number three pitcher as well. [laughs] Yeah. I don't know. I, I, I'm making stuff up. I don't know where you would find those types of things. Yeah. So I don't know.
18:16
As I told you though, I'm, I'm, I was obviously joking about Scubal and Mayers for those that aren't following that. Um, if they weren't gonna fix the bullpen, trading them was the right move.
18:24
I still think that bullpen is absolutely horrendous. But we've seen throughout the entire year that that offense is absolutely a playoff caliber offense. Obviously Scubal is the unquestioned ace.
18:34
Um, they had enough starting pitching. You know, Troy Melton's been great, uh, really picked up for Flaherty with getting hurt. If they... I'm still so angry at Scott Harris.
18:43
I'm not saying he gotta lose his job, but like next year might have to be a do or die type situation. Do something with the bullpen, man.
18:50
Get somebody who understands the goal of a, a reliever is to not give up runs, please. You were, you, this is, in fairness, this is not retroactive for Paul. This, you were, you were- No... screaming about this before.
19:02
You really were. In June. Yeah. After the six and 22. I, I wasn't... I didn't even give up on the team at, after six and 22 May. I really didn't. I was like, "It's not a bad team.
19:11
They gotta do something with the bullpen." And I want to also reiterate, as I always do, I'm not talking about signing the Edwin Diazes and Josh Shaters of the world. And no shade to Hater, he's been amazing this year.
19:20
That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about being active on the waiver market, tiny trades, little pickups, minor leaguers. Do something.
19:30
But the clowns that they've been running out there, man, it's, it's been brutal. So yeah, as fun as it is, and they're playing spoiler on Toronto, they're, they, they can't get this. No way. Okay.
19:39
Who, according, according to your, your, your most calculated
19:44
sort of prediction here, who ends up with the number three wildcard position in the AL that's gonna be obviously the loser of the AL Central between the White Sox- Yeah...
19:52
and the Guardians, big game coming up here momentarily, the rubber match of that series, the Rangers, the Blue Jays, and the Orioles, the teams that, as you say, are in front of the Tigers? Mm-hmm.
20:03
I think I told you last week that the Guardians are gonna get 'em, get the White Sox, uh, much to my chagrin 'cause I, I like the White Sox. But I do think they are.
20:10
I think they're gonna secure that division and leave the White Sox still in, but with that wild card there. And so I think it's gonna be the White Sox in the three slot.
20:18
White Sox in the three slot, Guardians win the division. Yes, yes. So, and, and, and then which of those teams then is the most disappointing from what you thought of them before the season?
20:28
Rangers, Blue Jays, Orioles, and you can throw the Tigers in there too, but that's your team. But d- let's just, let's just say Rangers- Yeah... Blue Jays, and Orioles.
20:33
What's the most disappointing of those three, if that happens? It, it has to be the Blue Jays. It, it just has to be coming off of the World Series there.
20:40
You know, I was late to them, remember, and I'm not gonna say I predicted this 'cause I did not. But I was late to them, so I wasn't the biggest fan. I did predict them to miss the playoffs.
20:49
But I thought I was actually gonna be wrong. Like I, I was kind of taking a stand there of like I, I think there's gonna be a lot of regression here. I wasn't so sure on the pitching.
20:56
I didn't think Cease would be a full on ace, and he has been, right? Yeah. Like so one of the big, one of the big pillars of why I was a little bit skeptical on them was the opposite.
21:04
So again, I'm not back padding too hard here, but even though I had them out, I still think that they're the biggest disappointment of this group here.
21:11
I didn't think the Rangers had the horses, and after the last couple years I've kind of given up on the O's. They have to prove it.
21:16
They, they can surprise me and make something, but until, until then, man, I'm done believing in those clowns. They have pissed away this talent in my opinion. They have.
21:24
They- I cannot believe the way they fumbled the bag with this collection of prospects.
21:28
That was that argument I got in with Rufus, my, our, our friend Rufus Peabody, who, like me, grew up as a Washingtonian but with no baseball team, so we were all Orioles fans growing up. Mm-hmm.
21:37
And he's still a big Orioles fan. And I was like, "You g- when you're this close, like the object is to win a World Series. You should be buying at this tra-" Yes.
21:44
And he was like, "No, I kinda like the, uh, you know, just like have a, that, the play for multi..." He, he actually said, "Play for multiple championships through many, [laughs] through many years." Oh my goodness.
21:54
And yeah, it's done. Nothing's promised in this game. Nothing. How often do we see that? Yeah. That nothing is promised beyond the year in front of you. And that doesn't mean mortgage the future and trade everything.
22:03
Neither of us are saying that. But when you have the collection of bats that they do, the, the, they did it the best way possible. Build the foundational bats and buy the pitching. Remember, that's what the Cubs did.
22:13
They built the foundation with Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, and company, and then they bought the pitching, whether via, via trade or, uh, free agency. That's what the Orioles should've done.
22:23
And listen, I know Burns ended up breaking himself, but then go get someone else. Do something. They should've had Cease. I remember, I remember- Mm-hmm... really pushing for the Orioles to get Cease.
22:32
I just think they fumbled their way through this entirely, and they kinda get what they deserve. All right. Who's in the World Series, Paul? If you had to bet on it right now, who's in the World Series?
22:41
I have to, I'd probably have to bet Dodgers Yankees, as boring as that is. Ah. I know it's, it's, it's- Me too, huh?... so boring, y'all. But like I look at that Yankees pitching, they have Judge back now.
22:50
I mean, they have all their guys, but Judge was the one that we were really wait- well, except for Jazz I guess. Uh, Judge was the one that we were waiting for, and that pitching was already so good.
22:58
And then the Dodgers, come on, what am I gonna do, go against them? It ju- I, I'm sorry. I, I know it's as boring as hell, y'all, but you said what would I put my money on right now. Yeah.
23:06
Real quick 10 seconds: if it's not those two teams, what's the team in each league that trumps them? Red Sox, Brewers. Brewers figure it out in the playoffs. I like the Red Sox part of that. Thank you, Paul.
23:16
Appreciate it. Take care, guys. Paul Spor, everybody. Bye. Nick Whalen joins us on the other side, talk NFL week two next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:24
[upbeat rock music] The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It is a numbers game. Un partido de numeros if you're listening in Spanish. Si. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billin, everybody.
23:42
Cole Scott. How good is your Spanish, by the way? Me, mas o menos. [laughs] I don't even know if that counts. Mas o menos. [laughs] Dr. Van Nostrand on Twitter, "I'm so glad I took Pittsburgh with two survivors.
23:53
I watched almost every play. I took them 'cause Rodgers is not lasting half a season. Watched almost all game. They're really not good. Incidentally, I took too many also." Which is in a better spot?
24:04
Don't want you to, uh- You know, I actually didn't think Rodgers looked all that bad He didn't look all that good either No, he, no, he didn't, but, I mean, what are we expecting at this point? Willie B. Bettin'.
24:13
Got a new, got a new work truck over the summer and it came with six months free SiriusXM. Now I get to hear VSiN experts betting tips.
24:19
Tim Murray advises looking for situation spots, and I picture the chagrined face of Matt Brown every single time. [laughs] Fantastic. Situation spots.
24:28
Uh, Charles in Connecticut, "I was trained through the General Electric management path many moons ago. One of the things was, when speaking, end thoughts with 'right?'
24:36
It's a power move that as long as what you're saying is logically sound, it's hard for someone to go against." Hmm. I actually am super annoyed when people do that. Hmm. Power move. Gil Alexander's- [laughs]...
24:45
pulling power moves on me all the time. That's what's happening over there? I never say that, though. Do I? Yeah. No, I don't like that. No. I can think of people who say it a lot.
24:51
Nick is- I like h- I like learning about things like that, though. Yeah. It's, like, the whole, like, uh, when you're doing sales, as soon as you get the answer you- Right...
24:58
y- as soon as you get the answer you want, just hang up. Hang up the phone. Like, "All right, good call. Bye." That's like the Billy Beane scene in, uh, Moneyball. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Billy Beane. Yeah, that's right.
25:05
"Why'd you hang up?" "Well, I got the answer I wanted." Oh, I forgot about that. That's exactly what I was thinking of. What a great movie. Nick Whalen joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:14
The man is a senior writer at RotoWire, and, you know, for half the year, hosts Prop Points here at the network as well.
25:20
Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @Whalen, just substitute the, uh, number one for the letter L, and then you got him. What's happening, Nick? How you doing? Doing all right, guys. Doing all right.
25:30
You know, we, we came out of week one in, in reasonable shape. Only lost one of my survivor entries on the LA Chargers. Oh, that's good.
25:36
I, I saw some of the figures that, you know, Dustin and, and other VSiN guys were tweeting out about, what, there were 91 people in survivor who put all 10 on the LA Chargers. Yes.
25:46
So I, I don't know if we need to do a moment of silence for those folks. I know people went down in Grandissimo as well. But, uh, for the most part, was able to avoid, you know, significant week one carnage.
25:55
Okay, you got a lot to talk about here. Let's start with a prop with Amon-Ra St. Brown. What are you doing? Yeah, so you gotta have something going, of course, for Lions-Bills. Yeah, I do think we see points.
26:06
I lean over on the 54 and a half. Uh, you know, you look at Lions-Saints this past week, that went over despite both of those teams spending long swaths of that game struggling on offense.
26:15
Last time these two teams played in 2024, it was a 48-42 result. I don't know if it's quite that level, but i, I think it has that kind of potential. I like Amon-Ra St. Brown any time touchdown.
26:27
They're giving, giving this to us at even money for the second straight week. And obviously it cashed in twice in week one. Hmm. He had four red zone targets in that game against the Saints.
26:36
He was number one among wide receivers a year ago in red zone targets. Number two overall, behind only Trey McBride. I think that's a trend that will continue again this season, uh, with, with Detroit.
26:47
You know, having Jahmyr Gibbs as a goal line option, but not really a true goal line back. They're not afraid to throw it in that area.
26:53
And look, guys, I, I know the, I know the Bills ended up winning that game against Houston in week one, but we saw C.J.
26:59
Stroud, who carried a lot of question marks into week one based on how he looked last time we saw him, kinda carved up this Bill's defense, uh, on Sunday. So I, I think we could see the same for Detroit.
27:10
And you as well- Mm-hmm... 'cause Will was on earlier, he leans over in this game tomorrow night. You do as well. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, the number's creeping up to, what, 54 and a half. I think I even saw 55 out there.
27:21
But again, I, I think this is one of those games where we don't really trust either defense. You know, really bizarre result, I thought, in that Bills-Texans game.
27:28
That was just not, not the way I thought that would play out. I'm not shocked that the Bills won. I'm shocked the way they did it, seeing the, you know, the letdown after letdown for that Houston defense.
27:37
But look, if they can do that to the Texans, I think they could probably do that to Detroit, and, you know, the Lions are one of those teams.
27:43
Even with Ben Johnson now coaching another team in the division, they still have that DNA. They still have that, like, "We're putting our foot on the gas for four quarters. We're going for it on fourth down."
27:52
They're trying to score as many points as they can. So I will not be surprised if this is a game that's played in the mid to high 30s. All right, Nick, I warn you. Okay.
27:58
These next two plays, you and I are completely aligned on. Yeah, wow. Uh-oh. Let me just get out of the way here for you fellas. Uh-oh. Wow. First, Texans minus two and a half. You like the Texans as well this week.
28:10
I do, and, you know, again, it was just kind of an unfathomable defensive performance by Houston in week one.
28:16
I know you're going up against Josh Allen, and you gotta give him his credit, but Kamari Lassiter, Reed Blankenship, even Derek Stingley, I mean, what, what was that? Uh, we have not seen a defensive performance- What?
28:26
... anywhere in that realm, uh, from the Houston Texans in, like, two years. They haven't given up 400 plus yards since early in the 2024 season.
28:34
With that said, I, I think the greater sample and all the talent on that roster suggests that we probably get a bounce back from the Houston Texans defense in this spot, even against another good offense in Cincinnati.
28:45
I don't know if Stroud will play as well as he did in week one, but again, I, I trust the Houston defense. I don't think they're suddenly a bad unit after dominating the last two years.
28:53
And of course, you look at that Cincinnati-Tampa Bay game. I, I was on the Bucs. I was on the under in that game, and this, this was a reminder of just how many games every single week just go completely haywire.
29:03
Totally. Four fumbles by the Buccaneers- Totally... including three in a row. Hmm. At one point, one of those returned for a touchdown. One was, uh, Baker Mayfield about to cr- cross the goal line.
29:12
The Bucs lost 22.1 points of EPA on those fumbles against Cincinnati. Bengals' offense looked fine. It was still a little clunky to me. Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase struggled to get involved.
29:22
This is a team that usually needs a few games to get going offensively, so I will take the Texans under a field goal at home. I'm with you. I'm also with you on this one. Eagles minus seven at Tennessee.
29:32
My whole thing was how are the Titans scoring? What do you got here? Yeah, I, I, I think we're getting a little bit of a gift here.
29:40
I, I know seven's not an ideal number, but I think if the Eagles looked a little bit better against your, your Skins last week, this number is probably eight, eight and a half.
29:48
It, it's not really that I have a ton of faith in Philly, although I think I'm still a little bit higher than market on this team.
29:53
The Landon Dickerson injury does worry me a little bit, but it was a, a very Eagles win, uh, against Washington last week. They had 10 negative yardage plays on the day.
30:01
It was, like, 20% of their plays went for negative yardage.
30:04
But I don't think any of that matters, because Tennessee was probably the biggest train wreck that we saw in week one against the New York Jets, who might be a slightly improved team, but still, it's not like the Jets played all that well.
30:15
They were giving Tennessee opportunities to hang around in that game. They politely declined to do so. So thi- this is one, Gil, that I look at Probably like you do, I don't wanna overthink it.
30:24
I think the Eagles just kinda grind this out defensively. Feels like a 20 to 10, a 17 to three type of win for me, where they just suffocate Cam Ward.
30:32
Speaking of not overthinking, because I think we are directionally aligned on the next two as well, you are taking the Bears team total over.
30:39
Is this the quintessential let's everybody just turn off our brains week after week until we're proven wrong on a Bears team total over? I- that's exactly right.
30:50
I, I have in my notes, like, I'm just gonna ride this until, until the numbers catch up.
30:54
We're getting the same team total that we got last week against Carolina, and look, I know it was the Panthers, and we don't really view that defense all that favorably.
31:01
It's Brian Flores this week, but that was so impressive by Chicago. I mean, that team total cash in the first half, I mean, in theory they could play half as well as they did last week and still go over this number.
31:11
They also fumbled on their opening possession. They went out on downs deep in their own territory. In the first half, there was zero involvement from Colston Loveland, and they still put up 59 points.
31:21
Like, this was not some sort of fluky, everything's going your way type of game for Chicago. They could've got to 70 under that circumstance.
31:28
And then you look at the other side, like, yeah, you're a little scared of that Minnesota defense, but we saw the Vikings give up a ton of big plays to Jordan Love last week.
31:36
Josh Allen and Jordan Love were the only two quarterbacks to have five plays, or five completions I should say, that went for 30-plus yards.
31:43
So you look at a Bears team that's always hunting big plays, and you're probably getting at least a turnover, maybe two, out of Carson Wentz at some point in this game. Vikings have a pretty questionable ground game.
31:52
Jordan Mason is banged up coming in, so I, I don't see this as a spot where Minnesota's really able to control time of possession. Okay. I love, I love that. I love this one, too.
32:02
And not to, like, uh, you know, steal your thunder on these, but I'm, like, guessing the, the rationale behind your plays here because I find them fascinating. Mm-hmm.
32:09
The under in the Dolphins-Niners game, I'm only going to guess that part of this is the Niners having to travel back across the world. Yes? Yeah. That, that's a little bit a part of it.
32:19
I would say [laughs] it's more so just not thinking that Miami's gonna do anything offensively- Yeah... in this game. You know, I, I look at it kinda like Eagles-Titans in a lot of way.
32:27
I'm, I'm more worried about some scoring upside for San Francisco. You know, I, I, I think to me it's more of a get up early and just kinda run out the clock in the second half type of game.
32:37
If you wanna look at the Miami team total under 15 and a half, I'm fine with that as well. Again, I just don't think the Dolphins are gonna do much.
32:43
That Niners defense I, I thought was maybe the most impressive that we saw in week one, considering the location of that game, considering what that defense looked like last year with all the injuries, and then of course the opponent in the LA Rams.
32:55
And, eh, look, you gotta give the Dolphins some credit. They weren't a total train wreck in Vegas, but it's also the Raiders. We're still trying to decide if that team is, is real or not.
33:04
They also cannot run the ball whatsoever. Devon Achane had, like, a 27% success rate in that game, again, against the Raiders.
33:11
I think it's gonna be a really long season for people who took Devon Achane in the early second round in fantasy.
33:16
I think it's gonna be a really rough week going up against that Niners defense that I, I, I thought looked way better than I expected. I mean, that was peak Fred Warner. You had Nick Bosa back in the mix.
33:25
Dre Greenlaw feels like he plays better for the Niners than he does for any other team. I, I think this is a, a spot where Miami could struggle to get to 10 points. All right. Last 20 seconds here, Nick.
33:34
I couldn't help but notice that the one p- the one bet I did make you didn't touch on, which is I have the Broncos against your Jaguars. Where are you on your Jaguars after that blowout of the Browns?
33:45
I, I mean, hard not to be impressed.
33:46
I thought that was, even, even though it was the Browns, I thought Trevor Lawrence was about as dialed in as we've ever seen as far as, you know, attempting and completing difficult throws.
33:55
You know, Brian Thomas, before he went out with the shoulder, I, I thought kinda looked like the Brian Thomas of old. He looked big. He looked fast. He looked physical.
34:01
Hard to have a ton of faith [laughs] in Denver given what we saw from Bo Nix, but I do look at the Broncos defense like I do Houston. Yeah.
34:07
It's not gonna be as bad, especially tackling-wise, as it was on Monday night in Arrowhead. So I do think the Broncos win this game, unfortunately, but part of that might just be me hedging my Jags happiness.
34:18
Totally agree with you on the Texans/Broncos sentiment on their defenses. Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it. Always good to see you. Coming back, we'll recap the bets. Okay.
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[upbeat rock music] The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code VSIN to get started today. Just gonna read this one tweet. Okay, maybe I'm lying. Um, Chris, he says- Yeah...
36:02
"New guess- new guessing current season win total segment with Kelly Maso Menos," is what it should be called. Ah. I don't know. I was wondering where that was going. I like it. This is the one I wanted to read. Mr.
36:12
Clean Kicks 420. Mr. Clean Kicks 420 says, "Listening to you guys makes my day. Dropping packages off all day and smacking parlays." [laughs] I, I loved the Twitter handle
36:25
And, and what a great tweet He's just not betting parlays, he's smacking them. Love it. Mr. Clean Kicks 420, glad we could, uh, hang out with you today. Yeah, man. Glad we could make your day that much easier.
36:34
Absolutely. We, we had some fun parlays today. One of the low-key underrated things about the History of a Numbers Game is we are very... Can I, can I just say this?
36:43
We appear to be very large in the postal/package delivery market. Oh, we're kind of a big deal there, yeah. Kind of a big deal. We've never, never really figured that out- Kind of a big deal...
36:51
like three or four years ago. Despite the fact that Jason Weingarten made it his personal crusade to ruin that for us. Oh, but that, that's how we found it out. Yeah, well, maybe that's how we found out.
36:59
'Cause, 'cause it was o- I mean, I was blown away at how much time Jason Weingarten would spend in the post office. Man loves the post office. I don't know about you, I, so, i- i- I had to go there.
37:10
I stopped by one when I had to get that passport updated a couple years ago at this point, but then ended up going to the great He- what is it? Henderson City Hall?
37:18
Pro-tip if you're, if you're updating your passport in Las Vegas. I called Chrissy Andrews, my mishpucha. Yep, yep. I was like, "Hey, man, I'm just curious. You gotten your passport renewed recently?"
37:28
He goes, "Oh, man, did you call the right person." [laughs] And, uh, you, and you guys were so right. What a lovely little, like, city hall to hang out in. It- I did some work.
37:36
It was just nice air conditioning It's, like, it's, like, the part of Henderson where you feel like you're in the Old West, and you can imagine tumbleweed going across the street.
37:42
Like, it is, like, I mean, it is literally, it's, isn't it Main s- what? Yeah. Water Street, guys, right? Water Street. Water Street. I believe it's called. But it looks like a main street, like, from an old Western.
37:51
Awesome. Anyway, it was l- lickety-split, in and out. I kinda wanna go hang out there more. Like, I, but like, there's- Eh, let's not get crazy... there's, like, there's nobody I know out there or anything.
37:59
Let's not get crazy. All right, um, baseball, most wins, month of September. I don't think these are getting home, especially after the last stretch of games. Red Sox are 28 and one, uh, 28 to one most wins in September.
38:11
Blue Jays plus 23, 25. The issue is they're three wins behind the leaders, uh, right now, and we only got 11 games left. It is, they, they had so many opportunities against so many bad clubs, but they have gacked games.
38:26
The Blue Jays continue to gack games. Red Sox not much better. Too middling to win this. And by the way, the Dodgers may ma- Too middling?... might make a mockery of it anyway. Too middling bidlings, yeah.
38:38
As far as the NFL, week number two. Coming off a, uh, coming off a two in one mega pod week, but only a two two in one millions week.
38:47
I got three, I think these are my three plays on the mega pod today, to be honest with you. Eagles minus seven at Tennessee, talked about it many times already. Texans, I got minus three reduced juice, uh, on the Texans.
38:59
And then Broncos minus two and a half against Nick Whalen's Jaguars. Again, I'm, unlike you, you were saying something off air, which was pretty interesting.
39:07
You were saying, like, on ESPN, you'd have, like, Greeny saying, "It's overreaction week," and then- Dude... two sentences after that he would start overreacting. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
39:15
That is not what I said or what I meant. Oh. Sorry if that's what I said. What I, it's taken me a long time to realize this working in sports media, but yes, o- there are the overreactions to week one, right?
39:25
But, like, everybody who wasn't a former player, like, gets that. Oh, the players do it. The players over- the former players overreact to what they saw in week one more- That's-... than anybody else.
39:36
Oh, that's interesting.
39:38
And it, it blows me away, 'cause you would think these are the guys that have been there and seen teams turn things around, or look like they didn't in week one, and they're always pointing at something.
39:47
Eagles, Texans, Broncos for me. That's why we do the guessing lines exercise on Monday, and it sort of crystallizes your thoughts on the games gone by. What is really sustainable, what is not.
39:59
You, sir, have a future to start things. That's right. Steelers minus 145 to miss the playoffs. Sorry, Jason Stark. We'll see how many more times I add on to this. They keep winning ballgames.
40:10
Uh- Oh, oh, just continue pounding the same bet? [laughs] You know, like jumping up, laying the points. Cut to a shot of us in, like, like in late November. "Well, it happened again." Uh, you know what?
40:18
You know what I just realized? S- uh, so I'll get to my bets, uh, week two bets here real quick. Patriots laying five and a half, so going up against, uh, the Steelers.
40:26
Uh, six-point teaser, Ravens, Bucs down to two and a half. Square bear tears, teaser of the week. Eagles, Titans under 41 and a half on Open. Cardinals plu- plus six and a half on Open. Sorry there. Um,
40:37
I, I was looking up my MLB futures stuff while you were talking to Paul. I didn't realize how close that NL Wild Card race had gotten until you brought it up earlier in the show. Oh, yeah.
40:45
I have way too big of a position on the Phillies to make the playoffs. It's a little dicey. It's, like, a little scary. I thought that one was home. Uh, yeah, it, it's, it's, like, sneaky dicey all of a sudden. Yeah.
40:56
With all the... And I know they have tiebreakers in their favor, too, so it's not quite as dicey as it might appear, but it should've been done by now. I mean, like, thank, thank God for betting.
41:04
You know, you know- Yeah... all the little baseball games I've watched over the past couple months, and now I'm gonna be tracking every Phillies game here for the la- last week.
41:11
They are, they are, in September, let me get the exact number here for you, but it's been a bit of a swoon for the Phillies here. Yeah, great. In the month of September, uh, the Phillies are five and eight. Ooh.
41:22
The issue, one in five in one-run outcomes. That'll do it. Yep. That will do it. Best one-run record, one-run records. Gotta say, that's a little- Yeah, it's tough... in the month of September.
41:34
Padres six and one in the month of September. Diamondbacks five and one. That's why the Diamondbacks have flirted,
41:43
although last couple days they sort of bounced back a little bit, but that's why they got really close to the, uh, number three Wild Card position.
41:49
Still time for them, two and a half behind the Padres for that final position. And there's your most win September update for those who, uh, have bet this market. Joe Sheehan took the Tigers, right? He's got a shot.
42:00
Ooh, did he? I think so. I think so, probably. I think so. Got a shot. One win behind the Yankees and Dodgers, but I don't know. I think the Yankees and Dodgers just might run with it. Might run away with it.
42:10
Uh, anybody else? Yes, Tim Murray. Oh, you've got plenty. Yeah. Tim Murray, Ole Miss plus three versus LSU, the marquee matchup in college football this weekend. He believes in the Rebels here.
42:20
I didn't like hearing that. I think I'm gonna bet LSU. Really? Yeah. You, you staying away from that game? Uh, I don't know. By game time, I'll probably be into it, so I don't know. Okay.
42:30
[laughs] I like, I like that answer. I mean, I'm completely into it. Notre Dame, Michigan State, his Irish, his Fighting Irish, Tim Murray's Fighting Irish. Notre Dame, Michigan State under 52 and a half.
42:39
Tim is, uh, going under on that one. And then Kentucky. Uh, Kentucky plus 17 was his, uh, was his third college football play. Uh, Kentucky taking on Texas A&M. Will Hill was with us.
42:53
Will was all over the place sports-wise. Uh, game tomorrow night between the Lions and the Bills. He's got Jameson Williams over 59 and a half receiving yards for the Lions. Then on Sunday, he too is- Like him...
43:04
he too is on the Titans team total under 16 and a half. Ow, 16 and a half, they're not getting there. He's on the Cardinals. That's his, uh, that was the g- the, uh, pick he got right last week as well.
43:15
Cardinals plus the points against the Chargers. He's taking the Cardinals here again plus the points. And then, uh, that one is against the Seahawks, by the way. Then Dallas Turner, how about that one?
43:23
100 to one Defensive Player of the Year. There was- I like that... what was your Dallas Turner stat again with the pressures? 10, 10 pressures he had week one. 10 pressures, that was tied for the lead in the NFL.
43:34
I don't know who he was tied with. Yeah. His whole rookie season, you remember how high he was drafted- Yeah... how much excitement there was for him, he had 15 total quarterback pressures in his rookie season.
43:43
So it's come a long way. 77% blitz rate by the Vikings defense. Brian Flores knows only one way to do things. Isn't it funny, man? It, it really is. Works for him.
43:51
North Carolina plus three and a half versus Clemson at Clemson, also from Will from a, uh, college football standpoint. And th- Feel like I've heard a lot of that this week. And then baseball.
44:01
Today, Tigers first five plus a half run minus 130, Orioles first five against the Mets plus a half run at, uh, minus 135, I believe that is.
44:11
Tigers, of course, um, and the Orioles, the m- the first five plus half run thing we call Willie specials. I love it. Nick Whalen, Amon-Ra St. Brown tomorrow night, touchdown.
44:23
So again, these guys are playing it directionally corre- directionally the same way, but two different bets. You know what? And I think I might have one too.
44:30
I was looking at something 'cause Nick mentioned about some of these numbers he thought weren't high enough. I pulled up Dalton Kincaid's yardage. 50 and a half is his receiving yards prop. I think I'm betting over that.
44:40
Boy, he and Alan have- Yeah, yeah... tremendous connection. Amon-Ra St. Brown touchdown, even money from Nick tomorrow night.
44:46
Then on Sunday, Texans minus two and a half against, uh, who are the Texans playing again real quick? Bengals. Bengals, thank you. The Bengals. Uh, the Bengals. Texans minus two and a half versus the Bengals.
44:54
I'm on that as well. I have the minus three reduced juice. Eagles minus seven at Tennessee. We are aligned there. And then directionally al- aligned on these. A lot of directionally on today's show. Mm, yes.
45:03
Bears team total over 26 and a half. I do believe that is the brain dead play in co- in, in pro football this year. Just keep betting- Mm-hmm... the, their over until otherwise
45:14
indicated by the, uh, negative in your betting account that you shouldn't. How about my season long over on them? Looking pretty good through week one. Yeah. And then Dolphins, Niners under 46.
45:24
Niners coming back from Australia, Dolphins looking like you know what. Yeah. Yeah. All right, cool. We've done all we can do. John Hanson is next. By the way, can we give a shout-out to John Hanson? This man is good.
45:37
That's right. He knows- And he'll give you some player props... he will, and he's good at them. Prop Points next with John Hanson on a num- on num- Numbers. On VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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