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Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
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Transcript
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0:53
Tim Murray joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to talk some college football with us and get some seriousness up in here. Um- A man who's never needed a crutch word. Never. Never. That man- Oh...
1:03
no crutches. Smooth as something real smooth. Smooth operator. Tim Murray one... Oh, excuse me, OneTimMurray. Pardon me, got it mixed up with a Wes Reynolds, uh, handle. Yes, yeah. OneTimMurray.
1:14
Tim is the, uh, host of not only VSAN Prime Time but also the College Football, uh, Podcast, College Football Tailgate Show. It's all about college football. Tim, good morning. How you doing, man? I'm great.
1:26
How we doing? How we doing, gentlemen? We're good. We're doing well. I- Just fine and dandy. I got a question for you. Yeah.
1:30
On your first pod after this weekend of football, 'cause you do multiple college football betting pods a week, right? Episodes. Three. Three. Three. Uh, Tim, what's the schedule during football season? Yes.
1:42
That feels like something we should ask. Monday with Adam Burke, Wednesday with WesReynolds1 and Brett Ciancia at Pick Six Previews, and then the Thursday preview pod with Matt Yeomans. So three episodes every week. Wow.
1:57
Okay, so first episode post this past weekend, how much time did you devote to Sarkisian and Ryan Day just dueling botching that end of game scenario with Texas and Ohio State? [laughs] Uh, a little bit, for sure.
2:14
Um, just i- it's, it's wild to me, and I don't know if you guys played the clip of Ryan Day basically still defending himself for not allowing them to score and say, "Well, you know, it didn't work, so I guess I was wrong."
2:27
It's like, "No, you were, you were wrong because you're not gonna stop them- That's right... four straight times at the one-yard line. You let them score. You're down one.
2:34
I know your field goal kicker just missed a 45-yarder, but you've got Jeremiah Smith. You've got Julian Sayin. Go try to make a play. Don't try to stop Texas four times.
2:45
And then Sark, I mean, where do we start with Sark? I mean, the whole Holly Rowe situation- [laughs]...
2:50
and then him already complaining about, "Well, you know, Ohio State should actually be rewarded for playing this game as opposed to being punished, you know, like we were last year."
3:00
And yes, why were you calling plays with 20 seconds on the play clock when you need to run that thing down all the way to 15 seconds?
3:08
So yeah, it was a, uh, a dueling piano of, of mistakes, it felt like, at the end of the game.
3:14
That all being said, those two teams are arguably the two best teams in the country, and we'll, uh, probably see them playing late into January. Two best teams in the country, you think? One and two? I said arguably.
3:25
Arguably. I did not say they are the two best two. Yeah. Okay. I mean, look, my, I, I've said it all along, and now Oregon, I think, has dropped out of the seven.
3:32
LSU, depending on what they do this weekend, Gil certainly could pop into the seven. But I felt like coming into this year, I thought there were seven teams that could win the title.
3:41
Uh, Miami has looked very good, albeit against weak competition. Notre Dame's defense looks nasty. Have some questions about the offense. Indiana hasn't been tested yet.
3:50
So a couple of these teams haven't really shown who they are yet. Georgia's been destroying teams, and I fully anticipate them to destroy Arkansas this weekend. So yeah, I, I still think
4:03
m- uh, you know, the, the story is out on these teams. I think right now Ohio State, to me, ever so slightly is still the best team in the country, just by a very razor margin there.
4:15
And, and we'll see how it, how it all plays out, 'cause Ohio State's schedule is, is ruthless. LSU, Ole Miss marquee matchup this weekend. The return of Lane Kiffin. Much has been made of this.
4:25
LSU Tigers, three-point road favorites. How do you see this?
4:30
Yeah, I mean, look, this game has the makings for fer it all, and hopefully there's not any crazy shenanigans, just typical college shenanigans where it's loud and, you know, chants or whatever.
4:41
Let's not do anything stupid down there. You know, I look at this game from where we were in the game of the year line to where we are now, and game of the year line was Ole Miss minus two, and now it's LSU minus three.
4:53
Now- Hmm... LSU really showed how impressive they can be in that win over Clemson. But early season, you gotta ask yourself, "Okay, was that LSU or was that Clemson?" Maybe the answer is yes, both of those.
5:07
That's very possible that Clemson is very down and LSU is much better than we anticipated. Ole Miss had a very challenging game in week one. Uh, they get the win. They don't get the cover against Louisville on a neutral.
5:22
I'm a little bit higher on Louisville than most, I would say, out there. Louisville's got a big game this weekend against SMU.
5:27
So all that being said, I, I'm gonna land on Ole Miss plus three, and if LSU goes in to Vaught-Hemingway Stamin- uh, St- Stadium and takes care of business and covers this number, then we gotta readjust.
5:39
But you're giving me a five-point adjustment from the game of the year line over the summer.
5:45
I've got, in my opinion, the best quarterback in college football in Trinidad Chambliss on my side, and you've got all of the pomp and circumstance r- uh, behind it.
5:53
So I'm gonna take Ole Miss here, plus the points, at home in this crazy environment, and, uh, we'll see how it plays out.
6:00
Because, you know, look, anything under three, I probably would've left it alone, but once we got to three, I had to look at Ole Miss here in this spot.
6:07
We should do a deep dive on pomp and circumstance at some point also. It's one of those odd English phrases Yeah, it is You got your circumstance- I, I'll get that one...
6:15
you got your problems I feel like we've done this one before, though Have we? Oh, okay Yeah, it's been a while, but I think we have Sorry, Tim. Sorry to, sorry, sorry to sidetrack there. Okay.
6:21
That's that Landon education coming out right there from you. I don't know Bingo bango. Where'd you go? Where'd you go? I went to the Heights Yeah. Yeah Originates from Othello.
6:30
I think we, I think we played you at some point. What's that? Originates... It's a Shakespeare Oh, yeah. We- Originates from Othello. Oh, is it? Oh, that's right. Okay. There you go. My bad. And now you know.
6:39
Ti- dun, dun, dun, dun. Tim, what else did you land on in college football this weekend? Uh, we can talk a little bit about, uh, Notre Dame, Michigan State here just briefly. Um, you know, Notre Dame 2 and 0 ATS.
6:54
They are on a mission right now. Word on the street, could see some rain Saturday night in South Bend. A total 52, 52 and a half. I'm gonna go under in this game.
7:04
Um, I do think Notre Dame's defense is at a elite level, but I think the offense has got some questions. If I'm Pat Fitzgerald, who, by the way, historically has fared well, uh, at Notre Dame Stadium as a player.
7:16
1995, I believe he was a 28-point underdog, and they went in there and beat the Irish back in '95, 17 to 15. Also, his Pat's Cats at Northwestern beat Notre Dame as well.
7:28
I think if you're Michigan State, you're gonna try to play keep away. You're gonna try to slow this game down. So I could see this being kind of an ugly 38 to 10, 38-14 type of game.
7:38
So, uh, would rather not 38-14, 'cause that would be a big time sweat. A couple other that interest me here, uh, as we kinda get close on time here. I, I'm gonna take the 17 with Kentucky on the road at Texas A&M.
7:51
I think a little bit of a look-ahead spot here for Texas A&M with LSU on deck. And also, you know, Texas A&M ended up winning by four touchdowns last week against Arizona State.
8:00
But guys, they actually got outgained in that game, so maybe a little bit of a box score fraud. So we'll see how this one plays out. Make sure you get the 17. I know Circa's sitting at 16 and a half.
8:10
I think there are still 17s out there. And then lastly, I haven't gotten there yet, but I think the Maryland, Virginia Tech game is fascinating. With James Franklin and whole press conference fiasco with the, "Hey, Mike.
8:24
Hey, Mike. Hey, Mike." Um, I think these two coaches, Locksley and Franklin, I don't think, I know they do not like each other.
8:32
Uh, I think this is a little bit of an overreaction so far to Virginia Tech and their early success. So I'm looking here at the home dog. Haven't bet it yet.
8:41
Maybe we get the three and a half, but I'm gonna look long and hard at the home dog here against Virginia Tech. Maryland plus three against the Hokies at, I guess they're not calling...
8:51
They haven't called it Byrd Stadium in a long time, Gil. Yeah. So whatever they're calling it there- It's a long-... on the campus of Maryland It'll always be Byrd Stadium to us. That's for sure.
8:58
Real quick, yes or no answer. Oregon makes the College Football Playoff or not? No. No. No. Okay. Tim, thank you. We'll look for you on Prime Time tonight. Appreciate it. All right. See you guys. Tim Murray.
9:10
College football betting podcast three times a week. College Football Tailgate Show on the weekend as well. He is one of the stars of the Beating the Book Megapod.
9:23
That will again air live on Twitter, 2:00 PM Eastern, we hope, 11:00 AM Pacific. We were live on Twitter for about, I don't know, 45 seconds last week, and then something happened with Twitter. Oh, really? Yeah.
9:33
That's annoying. Yeah. Twitter issues. But, uh, l- the, the Megapod audience is just spectacular as also.
9:39
Th- they, uh, as always, and they pre- predate this audience, so it's a different, it's somewhat of a different crowd. So they react quite passionately to some things, good and bad, on the Megapod.
9:49
But Will Hill starts off his season. Sorry, Will, you're doing, you're doing what Todd said you're gonna do, a one and two. Not, not thrilled with that.
9:57
Todd went, Todd went O and three though, I think, didn't he in the end? Todd had the- He did. He certainly did... he had the most unlucky O and three ever, though. He had Detroit. Um- Hmm... he had,
10:10
wanna say- The under the Browns game... under the Browns game- Ooh... which was a gar- garbage touchdown- Yeah, yeah... Deshaun Watson. And what was the third one? Green Bay or something like that? Green Bay. Yeah.
10:18
I mean, that could've- Oh, boy... been a three and O very easily. Instead it was an O and three. Hey, uh, you guys, you guys want some fun Deshaun Watson quotes? Please. Man, this is, this is gonna end so bad.
10:27
Uh, I can't watch the video right now, but Deshaun Watson on if he needs to have a big game to s- uh, to start in first Browns home game this season.
10:35
Quote, "I think the media has this expectation that I'm supposed to go out and throw 400 yards and five touchdowns every week." Oh, no. Can you just get out of your own way, Deshaun?
10:46
Like, just get out of your own way, man. You said quotes plural. Was there another one? Oh, no. Sorry. Quotes, quote. Oh, it's quote. Okay. I mean, he's said a couple things- I thought-... over the past couple weeks...
10:52
Will, I, I thought we were gonna do, like, five Deshaun Watson quotes, but- No, there's just one. Um, college football, Will. You have a play. You are back in the North Carolina camp.
11:03
Yeah, give me UNC plus three and a half here. Uh, it s- should be an ugly low-scoring game. Total at 42 and a half, one of the lower totals, second lowest total on the board.
11:13
And it's Belichick and all his defensive prowess against a freshman quarterback, a true freshman, a backup quarterback, uh, Tate Reynolds. And to me, uh, you know, 1960, 1970 type of game. Clemson has looked ugly.
11:26
UNC, uh, I know, you know, TCU, the quarterback did not play well, but they took care of business against TCU as a nine-point dog. They beat East Tennessee State 35 to three. Could North Carolina be three and O?
11:36
I'm gonna take the three and a half here. I think it's, uh, you know, more of a field goal game. I think it's close, and, uh, I, I think by the time this game kicks off we're three or under.
11:44
So I, I will grab that hook now. Okay. Could North Carolina be three and O? Um, you don't, you, you don't really anticipate a... I mean, what, what's the long-term prognosis on them as you see it? I mean, not great.
11:59
It's, it's, it's not a disaster, though, for all the off-season turmoil and everything. For them to be three and O, I think, you know, that would...
12:05
We wouldn't have expected that i, in the middle of August and doing all these preview shows. So I mean, it's n- they're not gonna be holding up the trophy come late January or anything like that.
12:12
They're not gonna be in the playoff. But, uh, I- Taking right steps, get maybe to a bowl game. I know the schedule gets tougher, but, uh, I, I do, I do think they're live here in this one.
12:20
All right, let's go to baseball. You are a big New York Yankees fan. Let's do macro on the Yankees first before we get to some plays from you.
12:28
This, you know, Yankees, we, we, we were going through the match-ups, World Series match-ups earlier. Yankees, Dodgers is the short shot. Yankees, the short shot to win the AL Pennant. They may not win the division.
12:37
Might be too big of a three-and-a-half game climb.
12:40
They do have a four-game set with the Rays next week, but again, as I was mentioning earlier, if the Rays are up about this much heading into that four-game set, really all they're trying to do is avoid the sweep at that point with only one series that follows that.
12:52
So I don't know if they, it's gonna happen. So the Yankees will probably have to endure a best of three series here in the process. What do you feel about your Yankees long-term this year?
13:06
I think they're coming out of the American League. I know that best out of three is dangerous, but they're as built for it as anyone with Schlitter freed. I would think Cole in game three, but you know what?
13:15
Cole is not throwing the ball well, and Rodon, who's pitching today, has pitched pretty well. Uh, Spencer Jones has turned into what they hoped he'd be as a big-time prospect with all those tools. Judge is back.
13:25
You got Garcia, you got Rice, you got a, a watered-down American League. I'll give Tampa credit. Tampa has been pushed here.
13:30
The Yankees have won games, and Tampa has, has kind of h- held serve and, you know, they continue to win games. Got the walk-off from Cameron Aro, so give them credit.
13:37
Yankees have been charging and, and the Rays have held them off and win games, won games they needed to, but Yankees are really good. Yankees are [laughs] really good.
13:43
It pains me to say anything positive about them because I just hate the way they run the team from the top down, but, uh, I do think the Yankees will p- be playing deep into, uh, October here.
13:52
I think bang for your buck, what's Yankees, Cubs, 40 to 1, something like that? Something like that. That, that would be the way I'd go. Yankees, Cubs, that'd be a fun World Series. Yankees, Cubs. Okay. Yankees, Cubs.
14:00
Go- I was just gonna ask you. Beat me to it. I was gonna call, call your, uh, exact match-up shot, 40 to 1 or thereabouts. Give me like 17 minutes, okay? I'll find it. [laughs] He'll find the exact number eventually.
14:10
All right, what about today in Major League Baseball? What'd you bet? Yeah, give me the Blue Jays plus a half run in the first five, laying $1.30 or so.
14:19
Uh, to me, Scherzer should not be $1.40 favorite over pretty much anyone. I know he's had a couple of good starts recently, but I think his last time out he got hit around.
14:26
It's all just intangibles and gutting through starts. He has seen better days here. So he will be pitching against his former team, and I, I love getting that half a run through for, through, through five.
14:36
And I'll also take Baltimore on the half a run plus, uh, plus a half a run here in the first five against the Mets. Bassett going against Stock.
14:42
Again, I just don't know that the Mets should be $1.30, $1.35 favorites over Baltimore, and, uh, again, love, love winning on that half a run.
14:49
So two similar handicaps here, Baltimore plus a half a run in the first five, and Detroit plus a half a run in the first five. And I'm not betting it, but I will be rooting the White Sox.
14:58
Uh, I gave it out earlier in the summer and bet it 20 to 1 to win the division. That was a heartbreaking loss last night. Pretty much a routine fly ball to left field. Bro.
15:06
The, the, the left field was basically playing Little League distance. It falls in on an 0-2 count. Ugh.
15:11
That would've almost put the division away, because instead of being up two and a half and having the tiebreaker, now you're only up a half a game, and if you lose today, you're in second place.
15:19
That was a devastating loss for the White Sox. Came back from three runs down, were an out away, a strike away. Boy, that really bothered me last night.
15:26
And that, I think the expected batting average of that ball based on where it was hit and the exit velocity and everything, was.060. That ball never should've dropped in, but here we are.
15:35
Yeah, I, I learned of it at, at dinner also, and it is also a brutal result for my Guardians season win total under, which is on life support now.
15:43
I think I can only absorb two more wins by this team that just figures out way to win ballgames in just all kinds of fashion. Let, let's do a... And that you're right, the rubber match starts here this morning.
15:54
White Sox, Guardians. White Sox with a, uh, with a half game lead in the AL Central heading into this ball game. An answer for Will real quick. Yes, 40 to 1 on the Yankees, Cubs. 40 to 1. 40 to 1.
16:05
Uh, r- year in review, I know there's a week and a half left in the regular season- Yeah... but in baseball, 'cause you, 'cause we just talked about the Orioles and the Mets.
16:11
So here are your three candidates, Orioles, Mets, Mariners. I don't think I'm leaving out anyone else that dramatically. The mo- Mm... the single most disappointing team in Major League Baseball this season was who?
16:23
Uh, the Orioles were disappointing, but they're not on the same level as the Mariners and the Mets. I mean, the Mariners should've been in the World Series last year.
16:29
I think 12 games under 500, but the Mets were lined at, what, 92 and a half wins? So it's, to me, dead heat. Mariners and Mets, you know, flip a coin. You could talk me into either one, but both just absolute disasters.
16:40
So I, it, it's hard to choose between those two. I don't think Baltimore's on that level. Yeah. But the other two, just absolute abject disasters.
16:46
The best i- it's so great how, like, certain lines that people say, like, land on you. I have quoted you maybe five times since you wo- [laughs] since you texted this, which was about the Mariners.
16:55
He goes, "Hey, for a, uh, team..." This is such a Will comment. "Hey, for a team that's supposed to have all these great freaking pitchers- [laughs]... why do they suck so bad?" I love [laughs] That's awesome.
17:03
It's just the greatest. I thought you were gonna go with, and, and it's so true, I thought you were gonna go with, and we talked about this at the time, how close they were getting to the World Series.
17:10
They went up 2-0 on the road, so, uh, they're an, an out, a, a few outs away in game seven. They're, they, they had all these opportunities to go to the World Series.
17:19
To think about climbing that mountain again, going back to spring training, a regular season, go through all this, I wonder if there was a hangover with that loss, because they never should've lost to Toronto in that series.
17:28
They should've brought in their closers early, and, uh, they just, they, they never kind of got off the floor here in the, in the next season.
17:34
Here's the other way I wanna look at this for people thinking of futures bets, whether pennant, whether World Series match-ups, make, miss playoffs, whatever. W- well, let's go beyond make, miss playoffs.
17:42
No, this, maybe this applies. What is the team in either the American League or National League here with, you know, 11 games-ish left in the regular season
17:50
that is either, either on the inside looking out of the playoff picture or, or on the outside looking in that you think if they get in are built to go further than most believe they would? Mine would be the Red Sox.
18:03
Like, I actually think the Red Sox can make a great run. What would yours be?... that I would probably use the same answer just because, uh, I think whoever gets out of that series ha- has a run in them.
18:15
Um, trying to think of something different. Nobody in the AL West. I'm not a believer in the Guardians. Do you believe in the Padres? You could, could- Do you believe in them at all? I was just gonna say- Man...
18:23
can San Diego with that bullpen, you always like having that kind of bullpen in a playoff setting where you know what, Tatis has kind of off the mat.
18:29
He, he basically went to like Memorial Day without winning a homer- home run. And you look up, he's got 25 homers. They've got the talent and they've got the bullpen. And you probably draw Atlanta in round one.
18:38
And after Sale, does anyone scare you? I, I guess San Diego. I, I don't think I'm gonna bet it, but San Diego I could see, you know, making a little bit of noise.
18:44
And I feel compelled to say the, the two most neglected teams, I'll raise my hand on this show, maybe beyond this show, the Braves and the Rays, who have done nothing but be- Yep... in first place all season long.
18:54
Either of them? That would be a fitting World Series, right? Could you imagine? I'm, "Oh, I guess, I guess they're both there. We didn't really talk about them." [laughs] We really, who knows? It's, it's baseball.
19:03
There, there are very few combinations that would abso- absolutely shock me with the, just the nature of the baseball playoff. That's for sure. Let's just have baseball next year, for God sakes. Will, thank you.
19:10
I'll see you on the Megapod shortly. See you, guys. Thanks. Will Hill, everybody. See ya. Uh, we got Nick Whelan, we got Paul Sporer, we got a numbers game right here at Visa, the Sports Betting Network.
19:20
Paul Sporer joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R. He writes for FanGraphs, the Bible of online baseball statistic, statistical analysis, metrics as well.
19:32
Hosts the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. And of course, content designer for Out of the Park Baseball. He joins us now, uh, from Austin, Texas. How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing well.
19:43
I believe that's called a Transatlantic accent. Oh. Oh. Because I don't really know anything else about it. Transatlantic, really? Is that what that's called?
19:51
Yeah, the old, "Eh," yeah, that like, uh, that old-timey one that- Really? Like if- It's like the default one... in the middle of- The, the default one, yeah...
19:57
in the middle of a sentence, they'd, they just throw the word why in there? Why. [laughs] They do that. Why, I tell ya. Yeah. Um, Paul wearing his Arizona Diamondbacks City Connect cap. Right.
20:09
We were having this conversation about, uh, earlier- Mm-hmm... off air. When we were doing prime time actually, Kelly, Matt, and I, so this was 2021, 2022, I guess it's 2021- Yeah, 20, yeah... '22, something like that.
20:19
So this was the, that was when they first did the City Connect. And I remember like the Red Sox one night. I'm like, "Oh look, guys, the Red Sox wearing their traditional yellow and blue tonight." [laughs] Right?
20:30
You say you like these uniforms. Okay, Grandpa, relax. [laughs] First off, that one has amazing connection, uh- Yeah... to the, to the marathon. It's not my favorite either, but I like- Okay... it's, it's a City Connect.
20:42
It connects to the city beautifully. They're not all perfect, but a lot of them are excellent. In fact, the most recent Boston Red Sox one that is more directly connected to Fenway I think is brilliant.
20:55
I think maybe you're just sore 'cause the Giants ones have sucked. Wow. But that don't make that everyone else's problem. Wow. Wow. Direct shot. But, uh, I think a lot of them are great.
21:02
I, I absolutely love this one here, which is of course the Diamondbacks, as you mentioned. I think the first Padres one was great. I have that hat as well. I have the first Marlins hat. Um, so I, I like a bunch of them.
21:13
I will say, you know, I roasted your team. I don't think the Tigers ones are great either. So they're not all hits, but I like that they're trying stuff.
21:21
I'm sure it's mostly due to just wanting to sell extra merch, but I really don't mind the City Connects. I think it's a good program. I hope they keep doing it, and I hope they kinda keep innovating on, on the uniforms.
21:31
Is there anything better than a feisty Paul Sporer? Anything? Well, he's, he's right.
21:35
[laughs] I'm gonna check all these, so I'll let you guys know at the end of the segment, but he's absolutely right about the Tigers and the Giants both being bad. Speaking of your Tigers. Yes.
21:42
A little bit of a surge here. Spoiler. A little bit of a surge here. Just when we thought they were out, maybe it- They pull me back in. [laughs] Yeah, maybe they're pulling you back in.
21:52
I mean, you're still four and a half out, right? Right. Four and a half out of a, uh, of a playoff position with only 11 games roughly left for everybody. They've won six in a row, though. Can they do this? Yes or no?
22:04
No, no, no, no. Yeah. The far more important thing than the games out right now is the three teams ahead of them. It becomes about teams in front of you as well. They need too much to go well for them.
22:14
You know, if you, imagine if they had like, I don't know, an, an ace pitcher or something though. How crazy would, would, would that be? Or like, I don't know, like a really solid number three pitcher as well.
22:23
[laughs] Yeah. I don't know. I, I'm, I'm making stuff up. I don't know where you would find those types of things, so- Yeah... I don't know.
22:28
As I told you though, I, I'm, I'm obv- obviously joking about Skubal and Mize for those that aren't following that. Um, if they weren't gonna fix the bullpen, trading them was the right move.
22:36
I still think that bullpen is absolutely horrendous. But we've seen throughout the entire year that that offense is absolutely a playoff caliber offense. Obviously, Skubal is the unquestioned ace.
22:47
Um, they had enough starting pitching. You know, Troy Melton's been great, uh, really picked up for Flaherty with getting hurt. If they... I'm still so angry at Scott Harris.
22:56
I'm not saying he gotta lose his job, but like next year might have to be a do or die type situation. Do something with the bullpen, man. Get somebody who understands the goal of a, a reliever is to not give up runs.
23:07
Please. You were, you, this is, in fairness, this is not retroactive for Paul. This, you were, you were- No... screaming about this before. You really were. In June. Yeah.
23:16
After the 6 and 22, I, I wasn't, I didn't even give up on the team at, after 6 and 22 May. I really didn't. I was like, "It's not a bad team. They gotta do something with the bullpen."
23:25
And I want to also reiterate, as I always do, I'm not talking about signing the Edwin Diazes and Josh Haders of the world. And no shade to Ha- Hader, he's been amazing this year. That's not what I'm talking about.
23:34
I'm talking about being active on the waiver market, tiny trades, little pickups, minor leaguers. Do something. But the clowns that they've been running out there, man, it's, it's been brutal.
23:46
So yeah, as fun as it is, and they're playing spoiler on Toronto, they're, they, they can't get this. No way. Okay. Who, according, well, according to your, your, your most calculated
23:56
sort of prediction here, who ends up with the number three wildcard position in the AL? That's gonna be obviously the loser of the AL Central between the White Sox- Yeah... and the Guardians.
24:05
Big game coming up here momentarily, the rubber match of that series. The Rangers, the Blue Jays, and the Orioles, the teams that, as you say, are in front of the Tigers Mm-hmm.
24:15
I think I told you last week that the Guardians are gonna get them, get the White Sox, uh, much to my chagrin, 'cause I, I like the White Sox. But I do think they are.
24:22
I think they're gonna secure that division and leave the White Sox still in, but with that wild card there. And so I think it's gonna be the White Sox in the three slot.
24:30
White Sox in the three slot, Guardians win the division. So- Yes. Yes...
24:34
and, and, and then which of those teams then is the most disappointing from what you thought of them before the season, Rangers, Blue Jays, Orioles? And you can throw the Tigers in there too, but that's your team.
24:43
But d- let's just, let's just say Rangers- Yeah... Blue Jays, and Orioles. What's the most disappointing of those three, if any? It, it has to be the Blue Jays. It, it just has to be coming off of the World Series there.
24:52
You know, I was late to them, remember. Now I'm not gonna say I predicted this, 'cause I did not, but I was late to them, so I wasn't the biggest fan.
25:00
I did predict them to miss the playoffs, but I thought I was actually gonna be wrong. Like, I w- I was kind of taking a stand there of like I d- I think there's gonna be a lot of regression here.
25:07
I wasn't so sure on the pitching. I didn't think Cease would be a full-on ace, and he has been, right? Yeah. Like, so one of the big, one of the big pillars of why I was a little bit skeptical on them was the opposite.
25:16
So again, I'm not back-patting too hard here, but even though I had them out, I still think that they're the biggest disappointment of this group here.
25:23
I didn't think the Rangers had the horses, and after the last couple years I've kind of given up on the O's. They have to prove it.
25:28
They, they can surprise me and make something, but until, until then, man, I'm done believing in those clowns. They have pissed away this talent in my opinion. They have.
25:36
They- I cannot believe the way they fumbled the bag with this collection of prospects.
25:40
That was that argument I got in with Rufus, my m- our, our friend Rufus Peabody, who like me grew up as a Washingtonian, but with no baseball team, so we were all Orioles fans growing up. Mm-hmm.
25:49
And he's still a big Orioles fan. And I was like, you go- when you're this close, like, the object is to win a World Series. You should be buying up this trade. Yes.
25:56
And he was like, "No, I kinda like the, uh, you know, just, like, have a d- play for multi..." He's, he actually said, "Play for multiple championships through many [laughs] through many years." Oh my goodness.
26:07
Yeah, yeah. It's bad. Nothing's promised in this game. Nothing. How often do we see that? Yeah. That nothing is promised beyond the year in front of you. And that doesn't mean mortgage the future and trade everything.
26:15
Neither of us are saying that. But when you have the collection of bats that they do, the, the, they did it the best way possible. Build the foundational bats and buy the pitching. Remember, that's what the Cubs did.
26:25
They built the foundation with Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, and company, and then they bought the pitching, whether via, via trade or, uh, free agency. That's what the Orioles should've done.
26:35
And listen, I know Burns ended up breaking himself, but then go get someone else. Do something. They should've had Cease. I remember, I remember- Mm-hmm... really pushing for the Orioles to get Cease.
26:44
I just think they fumbled their way through this entirely, and they kinda get what they deserve. All right. Who's in the World Series, Paul? If you had to bet on it right now, who's in the World Series?
26:53
I have to, I'd probably have to bet Dodgers, Yankees, as boring as that is. Ah. I, I know it's, it's, it's- Me too, bro... so boring, y'all. But, like, I look at that Yankees pitching. They have Judge back now.
27:03
I mean, they have all their guys, but Judge was the one that we were really wait- well, except for Jazz I guess. Uh, Judge was the one that we were waiting for, and that pitching was already so good.
27:11
And then the Dodgers, come on. What am I gonna do, go against them? It ju- I, I'm sorry. I, I know it's as boring as hell, y'all, but you said what would I put my money on right now. Yeah.
27:19
Real quick 10 seconds, if it's not those two teams, what's the team in each league that trumps them? Red Sox, Brewers. Brewers figure it out in the playoffs. I like the Red Sox part of that. Thank you, Paul.
27:29
Appreciate it. Take care, guys. Paul Sporer, everybody. Bye. Nick Whelan joins us on the other side to talk NFL week two next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
27:43
Nick Whelan joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. The man is a senior writer at Rotoworld, and you know for half the year hosts Prop Points here at the network as well.
27:51
Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at Whelan, just substitute the, uh, number one for the letter L and then you got him. What's happening, Nick? How you doing? Doing all right, guys. Doing all right.
28:02
You know, we, we came out of week one in, in reasonable shape. Only lost one of my survivor entries on the LA Chargers. Oh, that's good.
28:08
I, I saw some of the figures that, you know, Dustin and, and other VSiN guys were tweeting out about, what, there were 91 people in survivor who put all 10 on the LA Chargers. Yes.
28:18
So I, I don't know if we need to do a moment of silence for those folks. I know people went down in Grandisimo as well. But, uh, for the most part was able to avoid, you know, significant week one carnage. Okay.
28:28
You got a lot to talk about here. Let's start with a prop with Amon-Ra St. Brown. What are you doing? Yeah, so you gotta have something going, of course, for Lions-Bills. Yeah, I do think we see points.
28:38
I lean over on the 54 and a half. Uh, you know, you look at Lions-Saints this past week, that went over despite both of those teams spending long swaths of that game struggling on offense.
28:47
Last time these two teams played in 2024, it was a 48-42 result. I don't know if it's quite that level, but I, I think it has that kind of potential. I like Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown.
28:59
They're giving, giving this to us at even money for the second straight week, and obviously it cashed in twice in week one. Hmm. He had four red zone targets in that game against the Saints.
29:08
He was number one among wide receivers a year ago in red zone targets, number two overall behind only Trey McBride. I think that's a trend that will continue again this season, uh, with, with Detroit.
29:19
You know, having Jahmyr Gibbs as a goal line option, but not really a true goal line back, they're not afraid to throw it in that area.
29:25
And look, guys, I, I know the, I know the Bills ended up winning that game against Houston in week one, but we saw C.J.
29:31
Stroud, who carried a lot of question marks into week one based on how he looked last time we saw him, kinda carved up this Bills defense, uh, on Sunday. So I, I think we could see the same for Detroit.
29:41
And you as well- Mm-hmm... 'cause Will was on earlier. He leans over in this game tomorrow night. You do as well. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the number's creeping up to, what, 54 and a half. I think I even saw a 55 out there.
29:53
But again, I, I think this is one of those games where we don't really trust either defense. You know, really bizarre result I thought in that Bills-Texans game.
30:00
That was just not, not the way I thought that would play out. I'm not shocked that the Bills won. I'm shocked the way they did it, seeing the, you know, the letdown after letdown for that Houston defense.
30:09
But look, if they could do that to the Texans, I think they could probably do that to Detroit.
30:12
And you know, the Lions are one of those teams, even with Ben Johnson now coaching another team in the division, they still have that DNA. They still have that, like, "We're putting our foot on the gas for four quarters.
30:22
We're going for it on fourth down." They're trying to score as many points as they can. So I will not be surprised if this is a game that's played in the mid to high 30s. All right, Nick, I warn you. Thank you.
30:30
These next two plays, you and I are completely aligned on. Yeah. Wow. Uh-oh. Let me just get out of the way here for you fellas. Uh-oh. Wow. First, Texans minus two and a half. You like the Texans as well this week.
30:42
I do, and, you know, again, it was just kind of an unfathomable defensive performance by Houston in week one.
30:48
I know you're going up against Josh Allen, and you gotta give him his credit, but Kamari Lassiter, Reed Blankenship, even Derek Stingley, I mean, what, what was that?
30:56
Uh, we have not seen a defensive performance- [laughs]... anywhere in that realm, uh, from the Houston Texans in, like, two years. They haven't given up 400-plus yards since early in the 2024 season.
31:06
With that said, I, I think the greater sample and all the talent on that roster suggests that we probably get a bounce-back from the Houston Texans defense in this spot, even against another good offense in Cincinnati.
31:17
I don't know if Stroud will play as well as he did in week one, but again, I, I trust the Houston defense. I don't think they're suddenly a bad unit after dominating the last two years.
31:25
And of course, you look at that Cincinnati-Tampa Bay game. I, I was on the Bucs. I was on the under in that game, and this, this was a reminder of just how many games every single week just go completely haywire.
31:35
Totally. Four fumbles by the Buccaneers- Totally... including three in a row. Mm. At one point, one of those returned for a touchdown. One was, uh, Baker Mayfield about to cr- cross the goal line.
31:44
The Bucs lost 22.1 points of EPA on those fumbles against Cincinnati. Bengals' offense looked fine. It was still a little clunky to me. Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase struggled to get involved.
31:54
This is a team that usually needs a few games to get going offensively, so I will take the Texans under a field goal at home. I'm with you. I'm also with you on this one. Eagles minus seven at Tennessee.
32:04
My whole thing was, how are the Titans scoring? What do you got here? Yeah, I, I, I think we're getting a little bit of a gift here.
32:11
I, I know seven's not an ideal number, but I think if the Eagles looked a little bit better against your, your Skins last week, this number is probably eight, eight and a half.
32:20
It, it's not really that I have a ton of faith in Philly, although I, I think I'm still a little bit higher than market on this team.
32:25
The Landon Dickerson injury does worry me a little bit, but it was a, a very Eagles win, uh, against Washington last week. They had 10 negative yardage plays on the day.
32:33
It was like 20% of their plays went for negative yardage.
32:36
But I don't think any of that matters because Tennessee was probably the biggest train wreck that we saw in week one against the New York Jets, who might be a slightly improved team, but still, it's not like the Jets played all that well.
32:47
They were giving Tennessee opportunities to hang around in that game. They politely declined to do so. So th- this is one, Gil, that I look at probably like you do. I don't wanna overthink it.
32:56
I think the Eagles just kinda grind this out defensively. Feels like a 20 to 10, a 17 to 3 type of win for me where they just suffocate Cam Ward.
33:04
Speaking of not overthinking, because I think we are directionally aligned on the next two as well, you are taking the Bears team total over.
33:11
Is this the quintessential, "Let's everybody just turn off our brains week after week-" Mm... until we're proven wrong," on a Bears team total over? Uh, that's exactly right.
33:22
I, I have in my notes, like, "I'm just gonna ride this until, until the numbers catch up."
33:26
We're getting the same team total that we got last week against Carolina, and look, I know it was the Panthers, and we don't really view that defense all that favorably. It's Brian Flores this week.
33:34
But that was so impressive by Chicago. I mean, that team total cash in the first half. I mean, in theory they could play half as well as they did last week and still go over this number.
33:43
They also fumbled on their opening possession. They went out on downs deep in their own territory in the first half. There was zero involvement from Colston Loveland, and they still put up 59 points.
33:53
Like, this was not some sort of fluky, everything's going your way type of game for Chicago. They could've got to 70 under that circumstance.
34:00
And then you look at the other side, like, yeah, you're a little scared of that Minnesota defense, but we saw the Vikings give up a ton of big plays to Jordan Love last week.
34:08
Josh Allen and Jordan Love were the only two quarterbacks to have five plays, or five completions I should say, that went for 30-plus yards.
34:14
So you look at a Bears team that's always hunting big plays, and you're probably getting at least a turnover, maybe two, out of Carson Wentz at some point in this game. Vikings have a pretty questionable ground game.
34:24
Jordan Mason is banged up coming in. So I, I don't see this as a spot where Minnesota's really able to control time of possession. Okay. I love, I love that. I love this one, too.
34:34
And not to, like, uh, you know, steal your thunder on these, but I'm, like, guessing the, the rationale behind your plays here because I find them fascinating. Mm.
34:41
The under in the Dolphins-Niners game, I'm only going to guess that part of this is the Niners having to travel back across the world. Yes? Yeah, that, that's a little bit a part of it.
34:51
I would say [laughs] it's more so just not thinking that Miami's gonna do anything offensively- Yeah... in this game. You know, I, I look at it kind of like Eagles-Titans in a lot of way.
34:59
I'm, I'm more worried about some scoring upside for San Francisco. You know, I, I, I think to me it's more of a get up early and just kind of run out the clock in the second half type of game.
35:09
If you wanna look at the Miami team total under 15 and a half, I'm fine with that as well. Again, I just don't think the Dolphins are gonna do much.
35:15
That Niners defense I, I thought was maybe the most impressive that we saw in week one, considering the location of that game, considering what that defense looked like last year with all the injuries, and then of course the opponent in the LA Rams.
35:27
And, uh, look, you gotta give the Dolphins some credit. They weren't a total train wreck in Vegas, but it's also the Raiders. We're still trying to decide if that team is, is real or not.
35:36
They also cannot run the ball whatsoever. De'Von Achane had, like, a 27% success rate in that game, again, against the Raiders.
35:43
I, I think it's gonna be a really long season for people who took De'Von Achane in the early second round in fantasy.
35:48
I think it's gonna be a really rough week going up against that Niners defense that I, I, I thought looked way better than I expected. I mean, that was peak Fred Warner. You had Nick Bosa back in the mix.
35:57
Dre Greenlaw feels like he plays better for the Niners than he does for any other team. I, I think this is a, a spot where Miami could struggle to get to 10 points. All right. Last 20 seconds here, Nick.
36:06
I couldn't help but notice that the one p- the one bet I did make you didn't touch on, which is I have the Broncos against your Jaguars. Where are you on your Jaguars after that blowout of the Browns?
36:16
I, I mean, hard not to be impressed. I thought that was...
36:19
Even, even though it was the Browns, I thought Trevor Lawrence was about as dialed in as we've ever seen as far as, you know, attempting and completing difficult throws.
36:26
You know, Brian Thomas, before he went out with the shoulder, I, I thought kinda looked like the Brian Thomas of old. He looked big. He looked fast. He looked physical.
36:33
Hard to have a ton of faith [laughs] in Denver given what we saw from Bo Nix, but I do look at the Broncos defense like I do Houston. Yeah.
36:39
It's not gonna be as bad, especially tackling-wise, as it was on Monday night in Arrowhead. So I do think the Broncos win this game, unfortunately, but part of that might just be me hedging my Jags happiness.
36:50
Totally agree with you on the Texans/Broncos sentiment on their defenses. Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it. Always good to see you
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