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Sep 11, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Friday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 189. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell- Yeah...
0:30
on this football Friday. Yes. Uh, it's Fezzik Fridays. You know that. Steve Fezzik on the show later, everything on his mind, and he does have tons on his mind, both betting and casino wise.
0:42
Actually, it's more of a, more of a betting focused one. I think the casino- Hmm. Yeah, more sports... stuff is maybe, maybe back burner today. Uh, prior to Steve Fezzik, we'll do this backwards.
0:50
Prior to Steve Fezzik, Dr. Bob, his triumphant return to the show today, talking NFL with us.
0:57
Remember, he has retired from college football and college basketball, but Bob will be here to talk about the NFL, a specific game. Not sure what that game is yet, um, but we will steer him, and he will just...
1:08
We'll just roll the ball out on the court really, and then he will do his thing. Chris Fallica, The Bear, before that, talking college football bets, all of his NFL thoughts as well, every bet he's got in the holster.
1:20
Chris Fallica will join us. Paul Carr on the prim and, uh, as they say, so much more. So much more. You never, you never wanna underrate- Hey... so much more.
1:29
Deep thoughts with the, about the Miami Dolphins with Paul Carr. Oh, yeah. Uh, we could do that as well. Big time game this weekend. Uh, let us begin with the Niners and the Rams from Australia.
1:40
Well, clearly we can now say with the trap... No, let me stop. It's... We don't know anything still.
1:46
But ladies and gentlemen, the San Francisco 49ers beat the, uh, beat the Los Angeles Rams 27 to seven in a game that was, uh, unremarkable [laughs] Yeah... in every [laughs] Yeah... in every possible way.
1:59
This is one-way traffic really. Um, well, we'll start at the top where first play from scrimmage for the Rams, Freddy, Fred Warner knocks the ball down. You're like, "Well, he's back."
2:08
He's, yeah, [laughs] he's still good. He's back. Um, Niners, first time they had the ball after that, because it was a, it was a, uh, three and out for the Rams to start the game.
2:17
First three third down conversions were to Mike Evans, their new acquisition from this off season.
2:22
14 play, 65, uh, yard drive, but they had to settle for an Eddie Piniero 20 yard chip shot with 6:15 left in the third quarter. Were you surprised they kicked the field goal there? Uh, a little bit actually. I was too.
2:33
Yeah. A little bit. I, I don't know. I, I f- I, I felt like we were gonna be talking about it either way. Yeah. But I was a little surprised, yeah. Yeah, it didn't drive me crazy, but I was a little surprised.
2:41
Right, yeah. Three to nothing Niners. Um, couple times later when the Rams had the ball, second play, second and two at the Niners 49, Stafford to Puka for 39, breaking tackles.
2:52
Two plays later, Kyren in from five, Kyren Williams. 7-3 Rams three seconds into the second quarter, and maybe you were like, "Hey, look, it's the Rams." Yeah. The hype train. Hey, Gil, both teams- Um-...
3:02
started off a little slow, the Rams more s- you know, slower than the Niners, but, uh, this is now a score that we all expected. Here's where, here's where it got a little ugly. San Francisco first and 10 at the Rams 46.
3:10
Bur- uh, Purdy, bad pass picked by Quentin Lake, and Matthew Stafford said, "Hold my beer." Third and 11 at the Niners 36, Stafford picked by Renardo Green. Not a good pass either. Mm-mm. 7-3 they trail.
3:22
Niners then go on a nine play 86 yard drive that took 4:07 off the clock. Purdy deep to DeMarcus Robinson for 30, out. 10-7 Niners, a lead they would not relinquish.
3:32
4:28 left in the second quarter, um, Stafford was almost picked by Jack Jones later in the half, but that's how the... That's what the score would be at halftime. Purdy was 17 of 25 for 141 at the, uh, at the break.
3:43
Stafford, four completed forward passes- Oof... out of 11 attempts for 65 yards. The big one to Puka was really the majority of it. Uh, 208 to 137 in total yards in favor of the Niners.
3:55
Niners come out first thing second half. Deebo returns the opening kickoff almost to midfield. Niners then go seven plays 51 yards, took 3:57 off the clock. Purdy to Evans from two out.
4:06
That's what you expect from Mike Evans, sort of a, a 50/50 ball. Mm-hmm. Concentrate. He grabs it. 17-7 Niners, 11:03 left in the third quarter.
4:15
Uh, and then here's where the game sort of goes from competitive to, "Oh, uh, this might just be a Niners roll." Yeah. Rams from their own 27, they get to fourth and inches at the doorstep.
4:25
By the way, Puka on third down just stopped shy of the goal line, correctly, by the way, by, uh, I think correctly ruled by the officials. Mm-hmm. And then fourth and inches at the doorstep,
4:36
it looked live like Stafford was completely in on the sneak. Mm-hmm. But the offi- officials were like, "No, he wasn't." And I was like, "What?" Replay showed he wasn't, not even close.
4:47
Uh, stopped by Osa Odighiz- uh, Odighizuwa, and San Francisco took over at their own one yard line.
4:53
Now, if I had given you odds before the season, and by before the season, I mean 24 hours ago- Right, yeah, yeah [laughs]...
5:01
before the Rams season, and if I had said to you, "Hey, the Rams," you know, the Rams of Aaron, Aaron Donald and Miles Garrett. I get Aaron Donald didn't play last night.
5:08
But these Rams with OJ McDuffie, that they would give up a 99 yard drive this entire season, what would you have made the odds on that? Oh man, that's a great call.
5:19
Well- I mean, it would have to be for, for the yes to hit, I mean, major plus money. But I, I don't, I have no idea the, how often that happens to a team.
5:27
Well, they didn't get through three quarters, 'cause the Rams went 11 plays and 99 yards. Well, actually it was, it bleed, bled into the fourth quarter. Mm. 11 plays, 99 yards, 5:44. Purdy to Deebo from 15 out.
5:38
Uh, it's a better play than he made all season long it feels like in Washington last year. Dude, seriously. Uh, 24-7. I'm probably shortchanging him a little bit from his, uh, Skins, his, his great Skins era.
5:48
24-7 Niners, 12:57 left. Rams then second and two at their own 39. Stafford to Higbee for five. He fumbles. Keon White recovers. Niners really can't go anywhere with it, but they kick a Piniero 56 yard field goal.
6:00
Bangs it in. 27-7. 9:43 left, then Rams turnover on downs when on fourth and five at the Niners 49, incomplete intended for Tutu after missing a wide open Devante two plays earlier from Stafford.
6:11
Piniero would doink a 52 yard field goal, and the Rams down 27-7. I'm curious about this end of game With 3:29 left, they're down 20. From their own 42, they have all their timeouts, they put Stetson Bennett in.
6:25
Were you a little surprised they just ran out the clock? Oh, totally. Especially that they're, they're inside the 20 at one point. No, it, it's, it's, it's the NFL. Every game is so massive, I was, I was pretty floored.
6:38
So I, I actually... And by the way, that's your final score- But, but like-... 27-7. Purdy 25 of 34 for 205. Niners led in total yards 379 to 290, and Stafford ends up 15 of 25 for 155.
6:49
Puka got almost half of that with 74. Yeah, I just, I, I mean, Gil, it's just the, it... You're watching that game and you know everything's gone wrong for the Rams.
6:58
It's just, I think that was, him coming in the game was even more of a tell of, oh, the, maybe this is even worse, like, on the sidelines, and, you know, what, what's, what's going on with this team than we're even seeing.
7:08
Well, I threw that out in the group chat last night. I'm like, "Is anybody else surprised by how this, how the Rams just sort of were like, 'Yeah, we're good'"? I, I was. And, and didn't score.
7:16
And Fezzik, who will be on later, he chimed in, um, at his own leisure, by the way. He chi- he chimed in, "Maybe we're all missing the point that the Rams just didn't care at all about this game."
7:27
I, I mean, like, and that's, that, I think that's the, that would be the other take, right? But the, y- how do you have that approach in the National Football League? Like, that, it is, it, every game is worth so much.
7:37
Every win is worth so much. And I, you know, we've had this conversation- A division game against- Yes, yes... one of your two big division rivals.
7:44
I mean, like, and this is different from a conversation we've had, like, all summer about the Dodgers, right? Of, like, they just wanna get it. They're not necessarily chasing the best record, they just wanna get it.
7:53
Sure, the Rams are thinking that way, too, but it's really e- it's really easy- You can't do that in the NFL... for things to go wrong real quick in the NFL. Also, by the way, that's your home game against the Niners.
8:02
Yep. It should be pointed out. Um, so th- and I felt that was interesting, but that's a cousin, what Fezzik said, but that's a cousin of what I was kinda saying all off-season, right? With the travel.
8:11
I know we can pil- finally put the travel to bed here. Mm. By the way, hey, earlier teams to arrive, Europe and, uh, Australia- Still looking good... goes to 18 and nine against the spread. That's crazy.
8:22
Um, but it's kind of a cousin of what I was saying all off-season, which is, where I believe it will affect the Niners is on the way back. Mm-hmm.
8:31
Now, I know they get the Dolphins, so maybe we won't see it in terms of win-loss, but maybe whatever the spread ends up being, we will see it. That, that was always my hunch. I said it a number of times.
8:41
The impli- the, the insinuation of that, or the, the, also the, the tangent to that is, therefore, the Rams will not be affected as much the way they played it on the way back. Right.
8:50
And maybe the Rams, who again, did the whole test run where they sent personnel, "Hey, why don't you guys fly to Melbourne and back?" [laughs] By the way, L. Duncan- Okay... you can pronounce it Melbourne.
8:59
You don't have to say Melbourne, by the way. Um, nice, nice outfit, though. Uh, maybe the Rams, the whole time were just like, "Yeah, whatever happens here, happens." But, but I'm with you.
9:10
I, if, if that is in fact the case, that's awfully casual. It's just pretty shocking to me. Awfully casual. A- and then, well, I guess the other, I mean, uh, okay, but the takeaways from this game, Myles Garrett, right?
9:20
One of the worst games he's ever played. Well, he even said- Flat-out period... he even said after the game, uh, quote, "The worst version of myself that I've put out there." Yeah. Saying his knee was not 100% healthy.
9:30
Um- Well, was it w- It should also be mentioned Trent Williams was on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Y- you, I am so glad you just said that, 'cause we, the, some of these guys we just don't give enough credit.
9:40
I mean, that is one of, if not the best offensive tackles in football, and it's, it, that, that, that was a Hall of Fame battle you got to watch last night. Yeah. He's also a giant. Yeah, he is. You know, he is.
9:48
I mean, a, a h- a, a huge giant. But was it one tackle and zero pressures? I mean, these were, like, I mean, shocking stats from Myles Garrett.
9:55
And I guess where I was going with that, Gil, is if, like, you were really punting on this game and his knee was really hurting, why did you bring Myles Garrett? Right. Might would've left him at home, too.
10:03
It's very true. Uh, the other thing w- interesting that, that, uh, Kaylaon Black got a, got most of the carries for the Niners in the first half.
10:11
It felt like a bit, a little bit of, "Hey, just so you guys know, we're gonna load manage C- Mm-hmm... uh, CMC this year- Agreed... a little bit. Even though I know he was, he was playing down the stretch.
10:20
But there was a little bit of that that was interesting, I thought. Um- The box score itself, I think, is fascinating to go through.
10:25
If you're, you know, if you're a better or a fantasy player, I mean, I, the, like, Evans, Evans looked solid. Like, I don't, I'm sure- Oh, my God. Yeah... I'm sure you had your questions.
10:34
In fa- I had my questions over- Yeah... Evans and Deebo, and concerns about them of how are they gonna look. Mike Evans, i- if he looks like that every game, he's gonna be a major addition for this offense.
10:43
And Deebo, like, I thought he was washed last year. This- I don't know if he was washed, but definitely in training camp, those videos we saw, he was like- I would've said he was washed.
10:50
I didn't think you were gonna get anything out of that guy this year. Um- We'll see how long it lasts. Congratulations to all had the Niners. Yeah. As, as I did on this one. This was, this was easy-peasy.
10:59
Yeah, well done. If they, if they were only all this easy, as we like to say. Um, Niners win at 27-7. And I feel like, Kelly, I should, these were the two games I had the most conviction on all week. Mm-hmm.
11:09
Seattle, at the time it was laying three and a half, right? By game time it was, it was three- Mm... consensus. Um, I feel like I should be 2-0 as opposed to 1-0 and 1 in millions, and 1 and 1 in the mega pod.
11:24
Again, with the, with the Seahawks. Lost their starting quarterback five plays in. Uh, New England touchdown set up by a PI on a woefully underthrown pass by May.
11:33
Roughing the punter led to a Pats field goal that made it 10 to nothing. Touchdown negated for the Seahawks on an illegal shift. Delay of game when they had second and one at [laughs] the New England three.
11:42
With under six minutes left, had to settle for a field goal. I mean, on and on till the break of dawn as to why Seattle should have probably covered that. But we'll take the Niners win. It is the NFL. It's Plinko.
11:52
We know how this goes. Congratulations to all. That was a pretty dominant performance. Coming back on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
12:00
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:14
Back on a Numbers Game live from Circle Resort and Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Hey. Later on the show We go through every single NFL, every single remaining NFL game this week. Bum, ba, bum.
12:26
Week number one, National Football League. My millions is in, 1-0 in one start. Dude. My survivor's not in yet. I know people are gonna, some people are gonna get sick of us talking survivor 'cause we love it so much.
12:38
Ugh. But we are... It's week one. It's week one, Gil. I have changed my mind probably 15 times in the past three days of what I'm doing with my entries. Obsession. Yeah.
12:48
Uh, real quick, and I do mean real quick, as unremarkable as, uh, as the football game was last night, tennis, uh, we split our overs. Got the over in the Elena Rybakina win over Coco Gauff.
13:00
Rybakina coming from one set down.
13:02
Rybakina advances to the women's final at the US Open to take on Aryna Sabalenka, who would not let us get the over in the Sabalenka-Pegula match yesterday because it was 5-5 in the first, we're trending beautifully, and then all of a sudden Aryna Sabalenka just went- Yeah...
13:20
pulverized on Pegula. She was awesome. Too awesome for our over. Mm. Uh, she made quick work of Pegula after that, wins it in straight sets. Uh, we do not get that one, so we s- we split on that.
13:31
We lose the, the s- the pennies on juice there. Um, no plays for me probably anymore in this tournament. It's the men's semis today. I think both guys are properly favored. Ben Shelton, big favorite over Frances Tiafoe.
13:45
Yep. Even though I'm rooting for Tiafoe. And then Sasha Zverev, big favorite over Karen Khachanov. Sasha Zverev and Ben Shelton look like they're on a collision course here for the men's final.
13:54
No plays for me today in this. Here at Circa, Zverev -435, steeper most other places. You've got Shelton -285. That'll be a fun one to watch though today. And then in the women's final, Sabalenka -145, Rybakina +125.
14:10
Which I think is also properly priced. Yeah.
14:12
I looked ahead to that, I'm like, that's exact- I was hoping Sabalenka was gonna be a much bigger favorite, and then I would've been on Rybakina, but that's about where it should be. I thought, I, I agree.
14:21
She was impressive at the end of that last one. Sabalenka trying to go back to back to back with US Opens. Ooh. Yeah. Sitting on four majors. Rybakina's sitting on two majors, titles that is, right now.
14:32
Uh, we got tweets made in the book, though. Let me just read a couple before Paul. Andrew Destler, Andrew Dressler, pardon me, "Evans and Deebo still looking slow? Keep up the great work, gentlemen."
14:41
Yeah, no, they're not looking slow after last night. Well, you know, what they, Evans did exactly what you would expect from Mike Evans, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
14:46
I don't think either one of us watched that game and were like, "Oh my God, they're so fast." That's not really their strength, right?
14:51
I would also, I would also describe it as I had questions about Mike Evans coming into the season. Yeah. Not really concerns. Deebo, I had major concerns about.
14:59
JasonH11, "I get a hip pointer every morning I get out of bed." [laughs] You know what? I looked up hip pointer 'cause I was curious. A term invented in 1967.
15:08
A deep bruise or contusion to the upper ridge of the pelvic bone, known as the iliac crest or the nearby hip area.
15:16
But again, used commonly only in sports journalism, usually from a hard blow from a helmet near sports equipment. I don't hear anybody using that term anymore.
15:23
So maybe, I don't know if that's what Sam Darnold has or not. And then, uh, Shrek McFee, "I turned off the NFL debacle right in time to hear the crowd audibly gasp as Coco was saving a second match point. What was that?
15:33
Watching it live, you knew she was gonna gag it. I thought the crowd was on her side." Well, they were on her side, but Elena Rybakina's steely.
15:40
I mean, when she won Wimbledon, you didn't even see it on her, like no expression on her face. Mm-mm. She, uh, she can fight her way through anything. Uh, let's talk some soccer. Paul Carr joins us.
15:48
Paul, as excited for the beginning of his Miami Dolphins season as he is for the Prem being in full effect. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @PaulCarr.
15:58
He comes to us from the heartland. How you doing, man? Miami Dolphins, the whole city of the Premier League. I can just hope that the Dolphins can get off to an inexplicable hot start like Hull City has.
16:12
Uh, what are you hoping for against the Raiders? What are you, what are, were you really hoping for? Realistically, what are you thinking is the bar here? I mean, obviously you wanna win.
16:21
You, s- then you just kinda trickle down from there. You wanna be competitive. You don't wanna get blown out by Kirk Cousins and the Raiders and no Brock Bowers. Uh, mostly just, like, wanna see a team.
16:33
You know, they lost a lot of players. The offensive line has some promise, but is young. The wide receivers, who knows? I think I'm starting a wide receiver, so I need to get out there. Mm-hmm.
16:42
I, I j- would just like to see this look like a coherent team, which is maybe a pretty low bar. [laughs] Raiders favored by three. It's like, it is like, it's like the whole season for the Dolphins.
16:51
[laughs] Like, either, like, you win this game or you might as well just start tanking and right after it. [laughs] Boy. Uh, okay. Yeah, that's pretty much it. How'd we do in the Champions League this week, by the way?
17:00
Two and one this week. There we go. We, yeah, cashed two of 'em. PSG got it done, and Napoli-Arsenal was under very easily, so yeah. Paul Carr moving the chains. There we go. What he does. All right, to the Prem.
17:12
Um, let's, before we get to your three picks, give me any macro thoughts here in the very early going. What have we learned? Oh, um, I'm not sure. The teams at the top are the teams at the top.
17:23
I mean, your top four is Man City, Arsenal, Hull City, Chelsea. Obviously we don't expect Hull City to stay there. They're still, like, minus 200 to be relegated.
17:30
But that Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea trio is the consensus three best teams, I think, for most people, give or take a Manchester United. And, but Arsenal still looks like the best team.
17:40
They have clearly the best defense, as we'll get to. Uh, City and Chelsea have potential, just unsure if they can hold up over the course of the season.
17:47
So top three, getting into those top three spots, and Hull City, I mean, that's kind of the story of the league so far, that they're in third place- [laughs]...
17:54
and have a loss and haven't got a, given up a goal, but I still think that's fluky.
17:57
Yeah, Paul, by the way, two and one in the Champions League, also two and one in the Prem when he came and gave his three-pack of picks for the Prem a week ago.
18:04
Uh, and we were joking at one point, if you just keep fading Hull City and you still get a two and one every week, um- Yeah... that, that, that- Very glad.
18:13
Last week I went with the under in the Hull City-Aston Villa game, which is good, 'cause I was gonna fade 'em and take Villa, and it ended up being another nil-nil game that Hull really should've lost.
18:21
So the under hit, and I would've been beating my head against the wall again had Villa not won that and I'd taken them. Okay, let's get to the picks, which include a Hull City game. What do you got? Yeah.
18:31
The weekly, yeah, how do we fade Hull City this week? Uh, this week we're gonna do both teams to score no in Chelsea and Hull City.
18:38
So essentially, with Chelsea at home, you're kind of betting Hull's not gonna score a goal with the backdoor of maybe Chelsea doesn't too.
18:45
Uh, so I mentioned, Hull hasn't conceded a goal yet, but, and they've only s- and they've scored three goals themselves. But they've taken the fewest shots in the league, they have the fewest expected goals at 2.3.
18:55
They're really middle of the pack defensively with the underlying numbers.
18:58
So we're at three games where there's obvously, obviously some opponent differences in play, but the numbers are starting to be the numbers at this point. So again, Hull is not a top five team.
19:09
I don't think they're a top half team. Look at those relegation odds, minus 200 or so. Uh, Chelsea shouldn't have a problem scoring here.
19:15
And while they haven't been great defense, I just don't think Hull has generated enough, uh, consistently. Again, less than an expected goal per game. So minus 110 on both teams to score no is my play here. All right.
19:26
Um, and then Liverpool and Fulham, you have a total. We're going over three and a half here, plus 115. Uh, Fulham's averaging about four expected goals per game total in their matches.
19:38
The last two have both been three to two games, losing to Chelsea, uh, and Palace. Their defense has been pretty leaky all season.
19:46
Uh, they will push forward to chase a goal, which is generally a good thing, but it also opens you up at the back. Uh, Liverpool's been pretty open too.
19:54
They haven't had quite the attack, uh, that they've had the last couple years yet with Mo Salah gone and company, but the defense and midfield also has not quite been coherent either, so they're giving up stuff on the other end.
20:04
They've scored twice in both of their games. They've conceded twice in two of the three others. Uh, so I think we're gonna have goals here one way or the other. So over three and a half at plus 115 for me. Okay.
20:14
And then speaking of Arsenal, which we, you alluded to earlier, Arsenal win to nil. Kind of just wanna play this every week. Not really, but kind of.
20:25
[laughs] Uh, yeah, so we have Arsenal win to nil against Sunderland at plus 115. Uh, again, some books will have this listed as a win to nil or win to zero.
20:32
Some books you can build a parlay of Arsenal win and both teams to score no, but you should be able to get about the same price either way.
20:38
Uh, they've won to nil in four of five games in all competitions so far this season, and running a little bit hot, but they've conceded one goal and only two and a half or so expected goals total in those five games.
20:50
And, and we have a track record. They, this is what they've done for the past two, three seasons. They've been the best defensive team in the world.
20:56
They don't give up a lot of opportunities, and they don't give up very good opportunities, which is obviously a good combination from a defensive perspective.
21:02
Uh, Sunderland, three goals in their three games so far, but they played a couple of the worst defenses in the league, we think, in Fulham and Ipswich, so it's not that impresses- impressive that they put up those three goals and four expected goals.
21:14
So yeah, kinda simple here. Arsenal, much better team, best defense in the world, win to nil at Sunderland. All right, Chelsea, Hull City, both teams to score no, no, minus 110.
21:25
Liverpool, Fulham over three and a half goals plus 115. Arsenal win to nil plus 115. Obviously looking for the 3-0 sweep, but we'll settle for the two and one, the Paul Carr moving the chains- Mm-hmm...
21:35
common, uh, outcome. Real quick last minute here, uh, it is 25 years since 9/11, which is just so- Yeah... mind-boggling for those of us- Yeah...
21:44
who, who remember it to just process that it's been a s- a quarter of a century. Were you at ESPN- Mm-hmm... yet at that point? Or was that- No... d- no, you weren't there yet, right?
21:54
I was a senior in college, and I still remember. My roommate came tearing down the stairs. Like, I'd just gotten up, and he's like, "Do you know what's happened?" I had no clue what was going on.
22:01
And we just kinda like sat there and stared at the TV for a huge chunk of the day. Yeah. Yeah, it was a weird one. As, as so many did. Obviously.
22:08
What, what, uh, in your time at ESPN, what was the sto- I mean, nothing as big as 9/11, but what was, what is the- Oh... give us a glance into a sports, uh, broadcast. Yeah. What, what goes on?
22:20
The thing I remember most, like, not sports-related news was Sandy Hook, 'cause that's like an hour from Connecticut. Um, it was kind of the end of a show, and w- there was nothing we could really do.
22:31
You know, it wasn't like national news, but it just started trickling back in, and, you know, we had, like, researchers who lived there and stuff like that, and that was a, that was a tough one to process. Yeah.
22:39
N- n- nothing like 9/11, though, in terms of- No, no... just the, the broad scope of- Correct... of, of obviously affecting every human being in this country, 'cause we just could not process what was happening.
22:52
Sandy Hook was its own calamity, of course- Yeah... in a different realm. Paul Carr, uh- Mm-hmm... with his three-pack of plays in the Premier League. Paul, thank you. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Have a good weekend.
23:02
Paul Carr, everybody. NFL next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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24:09
Uh, f- it's just two gentlemen doing things up here on the desk. Two, two classy, don't run up the score gentlemen. [laughs] That's what happened. Chris Fallica, on the other hand, totally different story.
24:18
Chris, back with us. Uh, f- Chris from Fox Sports, courtesy of Progressive Gaslight. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A, if you're scoring at home.
24:27
Chris, uh, where are you this week, and where are you headed next week with big news?
24:31
I am in Ann Arbor right now for Michigan-Oklahoma, and, uh, this is one of those games where every instinct within your body tells you that the only side you can play is Michigan.
24:44
I just don't know if I can ultimately get there. And next week we are headed to London. Uh, Big Ten Kickoff do a pregame show from London prior to, uh, Arizona State at Kansas will be played at Wembley.
24:57
Uh, so it should be a, a fun week.
24:58
Get over there on Wednesday and we'll do a couple of things around town, and then the most exciting thing is heading to, to Bournemouth to catch up with my good friend, uh, Jim Fravollo, who is one of the chief executive officers at, uh, Bournemouth.
25:11
Used to be with the Vegas Golden Knights. Yeah. Went to Miami, college friend. Go watch Liverpool-Bournemouth on Sunday. So that, that, that'll be the cherry on top.
25:19
I, I know, I know, I just made a, uh, a pun and a, and a play on words and I didn't even know it with the, uh, the Cherries, as Bournemouth are called.
25:25
But yeah, I am in Ann Arbor this week, and, uh, I, I just don't know how you can expect Bryce Underwood to be better. I mean, maybe it's just a deal where they just run, run him 20-something times tomorrow.
25:38
Old school football, rely on his athleticism to make some plays until, uh, they ultimately can figure some things out on the offensive line, uh, a- and in the running game itself because boy, they looked lost on offense last week.
25:51
How about Mississippi State and Minnesota? You have a play in this one. I like Mississippi State. I like Mario Taylor, their quarterback, uh, quite a bit. Um, I...
26:01
This is kind of a, uh, a fulcrum t- type game for both teams to maybe this gets one of those teams to seven or eight wins, uh, depending on the result here.
26:10
But, but I, but I think Mississippi State is better than a lot of people are leaning on it to be. And
26:16
I, I know we've had this conversation before about trends and history and situations, but I, I like kinda really drilling down some things. I'm a researcher at heart.
26:26
Uh, p- I lo- I love looking and diving in at, at notes and stats and numbers.
26:31
Like, if you back, uh, since 2018, Minnesota, they've had 10 toss-up type games at home where the spread has been within three points either way. They've lost eight of them outright.
26:44
Now, there'll be some people obviously that say, "Okay, that means they're due to win a, a toss-up type game," but maybe that means that there's something that, that P.J.
26:51
Fleck and that Minnesota staff and the team makeup, uh, that ultimately they just don't get over the hump and win these types of games.
26:57
So, uh, uh, I think Mississippi State, Mississippi State's gonna put up some points tomorrow. I do, I do like them. I... It's very interesting that you say that also, researcher at heart.
27:05
There, uh, there is nothing I enjoy more than deep diving on subjects like this as, as Numbers Game listeners probably, uh, have gleaned. I'm with you on that- Yep... kind of thing.
27:14
Uh, Temple is a massive home dog against Penn State. You're going with the Owls here plus the points.
27:22
Yeah, I, I think, I think, uh, Keeler, I, I think he's going to have this team, uh, in a much better position this year from when he took over last year. Uh, they, they intended to improve, uh, building culture.
27:34
And look, that was a dominant win that Penn State had last week, uh, against Marshall. Ab- absolutely ran roughshod, uh, i- in that game with, with a big win. But, uh, there's some 24 and a halves out there.
27:45
Uh, I grabbed 24 and a half with Temple. Um,
27:48
and it's not gonna be like a home game or anything for Temple, but, but, but I think, I think their running game, uh, will be, will be good enough at least early on to maybe get some possessions and maybe score a touchdown or two early on.
27:59
All right, let's shift to some totals here. Um, let's go to- Yeah... let's go to- Rarity for me. Yeah. Well, that is true, right? You're not really much of a total bettor, right? No, I...
28:09
No, I'm not because a lot of these college games can, can get a little wonky at times. But I, I, I think this is the type of board it is in college this week. I didn't find a lot that I like.
28:19
There's so many like weird just blowout type match-ups and lines where, uh, I just can't really find a, a, a game or two that I like. Uh, so I did land on a couple of total.
28:32
I thought about maybe laying, uh, the, the 10 with FIU, but I think under 47 and a half is a little bit of a safer play. Uh, FIU's defense did really well last week, uh, slowing down USF. We talked about that.
28:46
I liked FIU when they got the cover. Maybe could've won the game outright if they didn't turn the ball over as many times as they did.
28:52
But, but I don't know if Buffalo's gonna be able to generate, uh, much offense, uh, down in, uh, west- western, uh, unincorporated Kendall Dade County. [laughs] Uh, south of Palmetto, west of the Palmetto there.
29:05
Kelly, I know you're- Yeah... you're loving the South Florida geography right now. But, uh, yeah, they survived against Albany last week, 120-117. I don't think they're gonna m- manage much offensively.
29:14
So I played under, under the 47 and a half there was, w- was what I had played. Um, 47's still fine. And then Duke-Illinois under 51 and a half was the other side, the other total that I played as well.
29:27
Duke's offense was completely one-dimensional, uh, last week. Shepherd is a hell of a back, but I don't think you're gonna have much in the terms of passing game from Egan, their quarterback. Um, you, you...
29:38
I mean, Duke really struggled against a Tulane team to move the ball that is not going to be very good this year.
29:44
And then Illinois w- was another team where you looked up again, that game against UAB, and that was a game for quite some time.
29:50
Um, they had a third of their offense basically on two long scoring plays, had just 330 yards I believe it was, uh, i- in the game. This feels, uh, maybe like a 24, 21, uh, type game, something in that area.
30:07
This was a, a, a game that maybe aggravated me more than any other game imaginable last year.
30:13
Uh, having Duke as a short favorite, uh, against Illinois, turned the ball over a million times, uh, deserved to win the game, and then Illinois, uh, well, [laughs] wound up winning.
30:22
So, uh, l- maybe I'll get a little bit of revenge in an ugly low-scoring game this year. Uh, let me ask a mega pot-ish question on college football this weekend. Mm-hmm.
30:31
A game that you want no part of that you've heard others betting. Let's say t- let's, let's reduce it to the top 25 games. Oregon, Oklahoma State, uh, because I can make a case either way, as you can in a lot of games.
30:47
But I think there's a school of thought that it's gonna be an early 9:00 AM local body clock for Oregon, and they've struggled i- in those games. Remember, uh, last year at Northwestern they really struggled early on.
30:59
Uh, but last week they really struggled early on, uh, in that game against Boise. And I was dead wrong i- in my assessment of that game. Uh, Boise had a great chance to win that game.
31:10
So maybe you would think Oregon would come out, uh, a- and, and with a little bit more focus and a little bit more fire, and now being, uh, used to the new offensive coordinator a- and play well.
31:20
A- and on the flip, you had Oklahoma State who was just terrible, uh, last week losing to Tulsa. Uh, maybe they take a little bit of a leap week one to week two as well.
31:31
It, it, it seems like a lot of people are on Oregon expecting the Ducks to, uh, to, to step back up and, and win easily in Stillwater. Uh, I could make an argument either way. I, I don't wanna be...
31:43
I don't wanna be involved and then hate myself for, for, for, for playing this when I could easily have seen the other side happening. A couple tweets.
31:49
Edward LeFevre, "Don't worry Gil, Miami will get theirs November 7th." He's talking about the Notre Dame game on November 7th. [laughs] Can't wait for that game. Cannot wait for November 7th.
31:59
Uh, and then Hoops by Hoots, "I bet Bear's take would be quite different if Notre Dame did what Miami did. LOL." There was a running up the score. What if- Notre Dame did to...
32:07
Did Notre Dame did what Mia- well, well, Notre Dame actually kind of did try and do a little bit of what Miami did late in that fourth quarter throwing a touchdown pa- Look, and I, I don't get N- I don't have an issue w- with, with Notre, Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman doing what they did, uh, late in that game against Wisconsin.
32:23
'Cause clearly that stuff is gonna matter, uh, at the end o- at the end of the year. Now Miami against FAMU, th- I mean, the game, the statistics don't really matter. It's irrelevant.
32:31
Like, when I, when I do a lot of statistical deep dives, I narrow it down and I eliminate these bye games and the, and the FCS opponents 'cause, I mean, a lot of it is stat padding if you're in there the whole game.
32:42
But at least for in, in Miami's sake, Mensah and Malachi Thornton didn't step foot on the field- You know what? I will-... in, in the second half... I'll, I'll back off the running up the score thing.
32:50
If Kurt Signetti starts passing the football up 50 against Howard, I'll back off of it. [laughs] But somehow I don't believe that's gonna happen. Uh, Bobby Getty's n- Yeah, w- w- w- go.
33:00
"The Bear is the only person I didn't get to meet at Bet Bash that I've never met before. Can you tell him to stay for more than seven minutes next time? Love was i- when he's on the show though.
33:08
Most different sports talked about in ANG history." That is very true. All different sports. I will. I will next year, and I'm gonna give you one more play. I'm gonna give you a soccer play tomorrow. Oh.
33:18
Uh, I know it's a little, a little pricey. I just looked at it and in looking at, uh, Paul when he came on. Liverpool, Fulham, uh, both teams to score. It's around minus 170, but, uh, Fulham scores goals.
33:31
Liverpool coming off of a Champions League match the other day, uh, against Athleti. Still a little uncertain in the back line. Uh, a little pricey, but Liverpool, Fulham, both teams to score. Okay.
33:41
And Kansas State if p- ne- excuse me, Kansas and Arizona State next week in London, just for those in, in 10 seconds who are wondering- Yes... why those two teams, the short answer is?
33:51
Uh, Big 10, Big 12 rather, likes to take chances and good op- good for them for putting their team, teams in a, uh, position to get good exposure. Okay. There you go. Chris Velika. Dr. Bob coming up.
34:02
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34:41
Bet sharp, look square. Always with the tweets everybody. Best listeners in the game. Chris Heath, "Senior year living with my hippie aunt who refused to have the TV or take the paper.
34:51
I had no idea why everyone was weeping at school." Oh, geez. "My friend approached and said, 'We don't have to be here.' So we ditched the house and watched the news all day."
35:01
Um, Nick, Real Nicks, "I was working at the local NBC affiliate on 9/11. It was the only day in my 25 years there we didn't air one newscast or any local programming.
35:10
We all sat in the control room staring at the coverage on one screen, an NBC raw feed of the chaos in their studio." Crazy. Yeah. It's just, it's... We all remember.
35:20
It's like, it's like I guess our parents' generation all remember where they were when Kennedy got assassinated, when the announcements from Walter Cronkite and others. Mm-hmm. This was, this was this on a
35:30
equal scale for the, for the next generation. Um- Yep... 3,000 Americans died. I, the, my closest... This is just me. My, my closest sort of connection to it was I, uh, have a friend,
35:43
Jeff, who wor- who worked in the World Trade Center. He was... He worked in the first building to get hit, second to fall. Remember, the first building- Mm-hmm... was the second to fall. He said his, his, uh...
35:59
He took three years to tell me the story. He just couldn't talk about it for three years. Uh, but when he finally did tell me the story, and we were in Vegas on a trip when he told me the story, he said that,
36:10
that it was like two hands grabbed the building, right? Obviously it would hit above him. Two hands grabbed the building and, like, shook it you would imagine. Like, it was like a... Mm.
36:21
"Br-r-rung" is, is, is how he internally, they felt the, the plane hit the building. And he said the initial reaction from his boss was, "Everybody just chill." That was the initial reaction. Yeah.
36:32
And then he said shortly thereafter he looked around and everybody started moving and calmly walking to the staircase. Mm-hmm. To the, to the stairwell at the World Trade Center.
36:42
And he said it was pretty calm walking down And he was about 50, 60 floors up. He's pretty calm walking down until you got down to the, the very bottom, like the last section.
36:55
And I'm getting chills telling you this story. Yeah, no, it's- Because the s- the story he tells is then, then the doors to the lobby opened
37:03
and a New York City firefighter looked him and everybody else down there dead in the eye and said, "Run, run as fast as you can. Do not look back." So Jeff ran as fast as he could, took that direction.
37:20
And I actually have a still shot of him. There was, there... From CNN, there's shots of people- Yeah, yeah... running for, running as fast as they can. People running down. Yeah.
37:27
I actually have a still shot of my friend Jeff running from the World Trade Center. Wow. And he said that when he finally stopped running, the entire back of his body was covered in complete ash.
37:42
And so it was just, the, the... I'll never forget him. First of all, he couldn't, and he couldn't tell me that story- Yeah... for three years.
37:48
But that, that notion of the, of New York City firefighter just looking them dead in the eye. Mm-hmm. And you know those moments in life where someone is dead serious. Do not ask questions, just do what they say.
37:58
And, uh, that was, that was his, his story. And thank God he's still with us. Thank God. Chills, man. He was one of the lucky ones. Chills. That's, yeah, one of the lucky ones. Yeah.
38:05
And I, I mean, how many stories did you hear like that that day, right? It was- Well-... a lot of that, right? Well. Calm, everybody calm, walking down. And yeah, hit the, hit the lobby, and oh boy.
38:15
Impossible to believe that it's 25 years since then. Yeah. Um, well, Kelly, another awkward transition back to week one of the NFL. NFL Sunday, yeah. But we gotta get through these.
38:25
Uh, we have one more early game, I believe, that we didn't get to, which was the Browns and the Jaguars, where the Jaguars are eight-and-a-half point favorites. I actually took the Browns in millions plus the points.
38:36
Yeah. We're, we're a little oppo here. I don't know if I'm gonna be laying full points and millions with them, but Jags in a couple teasers for me. I think it's a great look this week, uh, against the Browns.
38:44
I know you're a little higher on them. I'm, I'm very interested to see what, uh, Deshaun Watson is gonna be able to actually provide out there.
38:50
[smacks lips] Um, I just feel like the Browns' roster is good beyond quarterback. If they get anything from quarterback, I don't think it's outlandish for them to cover tho- the, to cover that number.
39:00
Uh, Jacksonville also in the question of which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose out, right? In my opinion, there's only three choices. The Jags would get the nod from me. Bills at Texans.
39:09
This is the marquee matchup of Sunday. Apologies to last night's game and the night before in terms of marquee matchups. But for as far as Sunday's concerned, Bills, Texans.
39:17
Bill's one-point road favorites, 44 and a half. I did not touch this any which way. Yeah. Million, survivor, anything. I think this is kinda...
39:26
I mean, thinking back, yeah, it's probably easier to say, I guess, after last night's result, but this was always kind of game of the week for me. This is a huge game. Yeah. I agree.
39:33
And two teams I'm very interested to see what they look like early on in the season. I, Texans was a teaser leg for me. Texans with the Jags, when it was at one and a half, teased up.
39:43
I've been staring at this total for a couple weeks, too. Haven't got, haven't got, haven't bet it yet, Gil, but man, this would still be a heavy lean to the under. Heavy lean to the under there.
39:51
Um, by the way, all the ones that I play in millions, I actually make bets on, too. So, uh, I'm on the Browns, as I mentioned earlier. I'm on the Steelers. Uh, next, this is, now we go to the late games, I believe. Yes.
40:02
Miami at the Raiders. So now this was- [laughs] This is a survivor consideration, but ever since the Bowers, the Brock Bowers news, I don't know if I'm doing it.
40:10
Sadly, I played it on the mega pod, minus three and a half. I didn't make a bet here. This didn't end up being a millions play for me. I'm, I'm not touching this game anymore, survivor or anything.
40:20
And you, and look, you could sit there and rightfully, rightfully so say Brock Bowers, [scoffs] one player, and not a quarterback, should not affect your decision to this level.
40:30
But man, week one with a questionable Raiders roster already that doesn't have that much firepower, Gil. Yeah, him not playing is enough for me to be like, "Yeah, I'm good. I'm, I'm gonna skip this Raiders play."
40:40
I don't wanna donk off a survivor entry on the Raiders. I just would, I would hate myself for doing so. Now, they could roll. They definitely could. Mm-hmm. But we, uh, we want no part of that. Packers at Vikings.
40:50
It's kind of a slept-on game in terms of, uh, marquee matchups.
40:53
Vikings are one-and-a-half point home favorites against the Packers in what is largely considered to be top to bottom the most contested division in all the NFL, the NFC North. Vikings favored by one and a half.
41:03
Kyler Murray's deb- uh, debut as the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah, Green Bay, one of these kinda banged-up injured teams heading into the season here. Uh, not gonna have Josh Jacobs, right?
41:15
This is, I, look, I think this line's about right. I've considered Minnesota a couple times, Gil, but haven't, haven't bet it. Um, man, doesn't feel like a ton of people have bet this game, uh, this week, right?
41:27
Do you feel, you feel like we've gotten a lot of that? I feel like no one has gravitated to it. I've never, I have not heard- Yeah... any Green Bay, that's for sure. I've heard a couple Minnesotas, but no Green Bay.
41:35
Washington Taco Holders at the Philadelphia Eagles. This is up to five and a half now in favor of Philly, whose defense is spectacular. Mm-hmm. Um, man, I'd love to sit here and tell you that, that Washington's
41:48
a team to play on here. I just can't get there. I just can't. I think the Laremy Tunsil injury's huge. I don't know about the defense.
41:55
I think the linebacking corps is gonna be good, but I don't know about the secondary of Washington. Defensive line, we'll see. Um, 44 is the total. Any thoughts? Any bets? Nothing for me here. Nothing for me either.
42:08
Uh, lean to the under. I'm just checking some of these lines. Four and a half to five and a half, widely available, so kinda that dead man's land, right? But the, over at DraftKings, six. Full six on the Eagles. Jeez.
42:20
So worth noting. But I, yeah, it's, uh, I'm not messing around with it. I, I'm interested to see what the Eagles look like early in the season here.
42:26
I, it, I, I've been more of a Jalen Hurts defender, I feel like, these past couple years. I think the loss of A.J. Brown's gonna be big for this offense, though. Defense is good. I like that. Would lean under the game.
42:36
I don't know if this offense, how they're gonna look early on. Cardinals at Chargers. This will be the most single popular survivor play. How much of a percentage in cir- survivor? Who knows? 30%? 33%?
42:48
That's what Cleve TA had it estimated at. Chargers are eight-and-a-half point favorites, total's 47.5. Yeah, eight-and-a-half here at Circa. Uh, they're, they're the only eight-and-a-half that I see.
42:57
Nine, nine-and-a-halfs, there's still a 10 out there at Caesars, I believe.
43:02
Um, I, I'll tell you G- Gil, big favorite to lose outright, I still think the Cardinals got enough offensive firepower that if the Chargers mess around, like, could happen.
43:12
I'm not, I know there's been a lot of people that grabbed those 10-and-a-halfs. I wasn't one of them. I won't be betting it, but I won't be shocked. How many of your three survivors are gonna be on the Chargers?
43:21
I don't, I don't know if I'm gonna have any. Really? I might save them for, I think I'm saving them for next week. Weren't you the guy that just said you're gonna play chalky? I, I said- Oh, with the Jaguars...
43:28
I said that a whole two days ago. [laughs] We lived in a completely different world. We were- No, the, the Jags are the only thing that- It's really true... Gil, y- seriously. Yeah.
43:36
I've changed my mind on survivor every day. For real. Jags is the only thing that's remained consistent. I will be using a fair amount of Jags.
43:42
Sunday Night Football, Cowboys finally now a three-point favorite, as we thought it would get to, uh, at the Giants at MetLife. Total's 48. Yeah, I laid two-and-a-half the Cowboys, uh, earlier.
43:53
Obviously two-and-a-half is not three, and I don't think that I'd be playing it at three with the Tyler Smith injury for the Cowboys on the offensive line. There's really...
44:01
W- the Giants like one, it's their one strength, right? It's the pass rush, right? [laughs] And now you got injured offensive lineman on Dallas. I don't know.
44:09
I think Dallas goes in there and it's not a problem for them, but I'm a little worried about that injury. By the way, NFL schedulers, schedulers, how many times have the Cowboys and Giants played on opening Sunday night?
44:20
It's incredible. It's in- I know... it's gotta be the most consistently- It's, it's-... used matchup- Yeah. Oh, it definitely is... for week one. I don't even think we need to research that. No. It definitely is.
44:29
I'm a little tired of it. Feel free to change it up, NFL. Yeah. And then, and then like we said, like, I, do, did we say this on air or off air? I don't need the greatest game ever- No, I don't... to open up week one.
44:39
Like, we're desperate for NFL football. And Monday night, to wrap it up, Monday Night Football, Broncos at Chiefs. Broncos, two-and-a-half point road dogs. Favorites. You're, you're on the Broncos.
44:50
Favorite side of the week for me, Gil. All right. Bronco, Broncos plus three, I did lay 120 on them. So I ended up Seahawks, Rams, Brownies, Lions, Steelers, and Millions. I'm excited.
45:01
One, one-oh and one out of the chute. Can you catch me? Coming back with Dr. Bob next.
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