Transcript 0:02 The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 0:10 Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. Wyatt Tomchek in for Kelly Bidlin this week. 0:22 Kelly vacationing in Turks and Caicos after a big, uh, golf win again on, uh, JT. Two weeks in a row now for Kelly. Uh, Rory last week. Um, the both of us had that, and now Kelly backs it up with JT. 0:34 And as I mentioned, uh, not only did he have that, but he had some, uh, derivative plays at w- as well on Sepp Straka, top 20. 0:41 Uh, Daniel Berger, top five as well, and I think he had the most on, uh, Russell Henley, top 10, so a big weekend for him. Uh, still to come this hour, Andy Molitor joins us to talk NFL draft. 0:53 Uh, looking forward to that. Half of the deep dive team with Drew Didsick. What do we know in the draft? What don't we know? It's getting a little interesting this morning because we have, uh, uh, we have... 1:02 Todd McShay has a podcast out now, his latest podcast, Todd McShay, noted draft guru, where now he is talking like he thinks there might be a run on defensive lineman/edge players in the top 10. 1:17 And he feels, after talking to folks this past weekend, that there might be an under on two and a half quarterbacks. I'm always skeptical when I hear that because you know how teams get on draft day, right? 1:29 In the first round, you're, you're nothing without a quarterback. Um, but he feels like it might be under two and a half now. 1:36 Uh, part of the reasoning on that is that when you compare these just from a, from a st- from a talent evaluation standpoint, he says Cam W- he says, uh, I'll get this exactly right. I don't wanna make it up. 1:46 But basically what he's getting at is that, uh, he has, he has these guys being drafted this year, if they were drafted last year, as about the sixth or seventh best quarterbacks. Yeah, uh, you know, these guys, the... 1:59 So he said QB two and three, so not Cam Ward, but talking, uh, Dart and Sanders. 2:05 In whatever order you have them on, they would be QB six or seven from last year, and he feels like in the first round, that evaluation will take over, and some teams will back off. We'll see. 2:17 You know how drafts go, uh, with that kind of thing. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Uh, this is from Dan Groeschel again. He says... Oh, this is a great point, Dan. I'm glad you brought this up. 2:25 He says, "Can we take a moment and talk about the Knights-Wild game last night?" The Golden Knights and the Wild. Did you see this last night? 2:32 For all the bad beats I've ever heard, having, uh, the Golden Knights laying one and a half and the over five and a half, that empty netter in the final second gave me a shock win. 2:41 For those who, uh, missed this, it was three to two Golden Knights. Uh, the Wild pulled the goalie, and the Knights end up with an empty netter. 2:49 When I say there was 0.1 seconds left, um, 'cause this is about from, what, three-quarters ice? And they have the overhead right on the crease there. That puck crosses the goal line, I guess. 3:03 Like, I don't know how, but they... It was almost impossible to slow it down enough. It was amazing how precise it was to the clock turning zero. 3:11 In the end, they give it to the Knights, and so the, the, uh, the Knights win it on the puck line, and it goes over. What a horrible beat for those who were on the other side of that. That was pretty amazing. 3:21 James Sott as the Knights take a one to nothing lead in that best of seven series against the Minnesota Wild. James Sott, "I can't think of anything to compare with that Iga, uh, Iga Swiatek versus Ostapenko thing. 3:31 To make my friends understand, I told them it's like the Browns being six and O versus the Mahomes-led Chiefs and just owning them and being the Browns versus everyone else." That's exactly kind of what it is. 3:43 Um, although she's a little better than the Browns, but yes, the analogy holds generally. Sky high, up until last weekend, Rory versus Augusta, and now and forever Tom Brady versus the NFC East in Super Bowls. 3:56 What is that in re- in reference to? Hmm. Oh, is that what... We're also talking about, uh, oh, the Iga thing. Gotcha. Interesting. 4:03 Um, also on that, St- uh, Charlie D USA number one, "Steelers had a hard time beating the Steelers in those big games. Brady killed their zona." I think he means beating the, uh, the Patriots. 4:13 I don't, I don't know what that one means. Uh, let's see. Mark Decard, "Hunter Brown, AL Cy Young," he says. 4:18 And then Jeff G, "Concerning the Iga comparison, it was Rory with the Masters, but it goes to Phil Mickelson in the US Open. Zero forever. Enjoy your well-deserved vacation, young Skinny Kelly." 4:27 Yeah, but that's against an event, right? Not against another human. And then All In 216, "Is it Hamburger or Hamburglar? 4:34 Either one works, but the way she stole the title from the top seeds, maybe Hamburglar is more applicable." Yeah. Well, I've always called her the former, but I, I get what you're saying. 4:41 Wes Reynolds, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together, joins us now, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at WesReynolds1. 4:50 That's the number one, who, by the way, is not only the co-host of, uh, Long Shots, is a man who hits many a golf, uh, future. But I was mistaken. This wasn't one of them this week, Wes, huh? No. 5:00 Uh, I had to, uh, make my money via placement markets, which actually went pretty well. 5:05 But, uh, in the other tournament, in the alternate event, the Corales Puntacana, had to settle for two guys, uh, finishing runner-up as, uh, had a guy try to get in the playoff. 5:15 Michael Chor Bonset, a young player out of Stanford, missed a five-foot putt, uh, to get into a playoff. 5:21 And then another guy, Alejandro Tosti, who's a big hitter from Argentina, actually missed a 10-foot putt in h- or a 10-inch putt, I should say- Oh... 5:30 in his final round, which would've got him in the playoff, so had to finish for, uh, two runner-ups there. Oh, man. I think, uh, Andy Molitor said on Twitter he had Tosti as well on that. 5:40 Um, Joel Dahmen was involved in that as well? Yeah, Joel Dahmen actually is the guy that should've won the tournament, who I didn't have, who, uh, bogeys his last three holes. 5:49 [sighs] And, uh, Garrick Higgo just hangs around, just kind of like he did a couple years ago at the, uh, uh, Palmetto Championship, which they had, uh, as a one-off event during, uh, the COVID season, and, uh, just had to hang around and let everybody make mistakes around him, and, uh, he gets in and wins outright and doesn't have to go to a playoff. 6:07 Where are we? Uh, Zurich, not Zurich, Switzerland, but the Zurich Classic this weekend? 6:11 Y- yeah, team event in, in New Orleans where they do alternate, uh, four-ball, which is the best ball format where you take the best score of the two players, and then, uh, two other days they play alternate shot. 6:23 So one guy tees off, one guy hits the second shot, one guy hits the third, so on and so forth. So yeah, team event. A little bit, little bit hard to handicap this week. 6:32 Hard to kind of l- like model if you're doing like a lot of stat modeling or anything like that. A lot of this is go with your gut and, you know, you've had some guys down the board. 6:41 Like last year, though, it was a, uh, it was a, it was a chalk winner. It was Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, but they even had to go to a playoff against a team that was like, I think 150 to one, uh, to win the thing. 6:52 So you get a lot of randomness here in New Orleans. Kind of a fun event, but kind of it's hard to do like traditional golf handicapping for it. I know you're betting baseball, uh, these days as well. 7:02 Any thoughts, uh, a- any, any sort of macro thoughts on the, uh, first 20 or so games of the season? Or do you have anything that you played this morning? 7:11 Well, you, you always have some teams that, that, that kind of struggle out of the gate that maybe are a little bit surprising. 7:18 I think probably the one that sticks out to me the most is the Braves, being that, being that they're 8 and 13, but maybe starting to get the bats going, uh, a- a little bit. 7:27 Uh, uh, did have a good series against the Twins. 7:30 Now, the Twins have been absolutely awful to start the season, but, you know, maybe not gonna discount the Braves just as yet, even though they find themselves in dead last right now in the NL East. 7:40 Uh, uh, the way to play against the Cardinals today, because that money line's on the move, Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound for the Braves, and he had kind of a tough outing against Toronto, uh, last time out. 7:51 I think he's gonna bounce back, though. 7:53 So if you're gonna play against the Cardinals, maybe a way to play against the Cardinals actually would be the team total if you don't wanna necessarily lay that big price and play that under three and a half runs. 8:04 Uh, tough series for the Cardinals up there in, in New York and Flushing, and the offense has just really sputtered for this team. 8:11 So, uh, under three and a half runs for the Cardinals if you wanna bet the Braves that way and don't wanna lay the 190. Okay. That's it for baseball today? That's the one? 8:20 Uh, I, I have that, and then also, uh, uh, Toronto going, uh, to Houston. Uh, Kevin Gausman has been much better on the road this year than he has been at home. You know, it's kind of a, a road Gausman thing. 8:32 You're getting him at a decent price at about, uh, a little over $1.20 here. Just the, uh, j- j- just, uh, the... 8:38 He's done very well on the road aga- against two pretty good o- o- offenses, against, uh, New York and against Boston, so not allowing a lot of, a lot of runs here. 8:48 Uh, so, uh, I think you look at Gausman, I think he's gone like six hits and three earned runs in those two outings against the, uh, Mets and Boston in, uh, about 13 innings of work. 8:58 So Toronto Blue Jays, uh, maybe look first five or split it half and half, first five full game against the Astros, who did have to play Sunday night baseball. That's kind of like a little bit of a thing. 9:08 Kind of tough when you gotta play on a Monday after you played Sunday night baseball, so give me the Jays. Okay, I like it. And now what Wes really wants to talk about, ladies and gentlemen, WrestleMania 41. 9:19 Did you end up going? I went to a, I went to a viewing party, actually. 9:24 Uh, uh, was gonna go, but I didn't wanna pay that high ticket prices to kind of sit up in the nosebleed and watch it on the big screen, so I could watch it on a big screen for a lot less money, uh, uh, here in town. 9:36 But, but they, they announced, uh, I believe 61,000 and then 63 for the second night, because they wanted to get ahead of the Super Bowl. So I don't know, they inflate the attendance a little bit. 9:47 They, uh, they didn't super inflate it. 9:49 I'm guessing there was mid to high 50s there both nights, but they always like to announce that for the records, and they probably did the biggest gate in the company's history simply because the ticket prices were absolutely exorbitant. 10:03 Did, did it live up to everything you imagined it to be? It was an okay show. It, uh, it had its moments. 10:09 It seemed like Saturday night, the night one, you had kind of a bad undercard and a really great main event, whereas Sunday night on night two, you had a great undercard and kind of an underwhelming main event, uh, a little bit. 10:23 So, you know, I've been following this a long time, so may- maybe my standards are too high. You know, if people enjoyed it and have a good time, that's what it's all about. 10:30 But, you know, you, you do expect better because it is the biggest show of the year, and people travel from all over the world to come see this show, and, and they charge these kind of ticket prices with this, this new corporation called TKO Group that not only owns UFC, but also owns WWE. 10:48 So, you know, they're, they're, they're making a lot of money with this thing. 10:52 But there were some disappointed people o- on Sunday night, though, because they're waiting for Dwayne The Rock Johnson to come out, and they keep looking at the ramp. It's like they're looking at the ramp. 11:01 "Okay, he's gotta interfere in the main event. He's coming out, he's coming out." 11:04 And then it was Travis Scott, uh, the, the, uh, rapper that came out that was part of the storyline, whose theme song I think was the theme for the whole WrestleMania weekend and all the shows. 11:14 And he comes out, and it's like, "Okay, now he got taken care of, and he's pushed out of the scene. When's The Rock coming out? When's The Rock coming out?" And he never came. He never came out. 11:23 He, he was not there at WrestleMania this weekend. Ah, so disappointing. So disappointing, Wes. Um, are you one of those people, too, like, if I, if I went WrestleMania 12, you could tell me what happened in it? 11:34 Are you one of those? Um, uh, s- a little bit. Uh, my, my, my memory's getting foggy as I get older, Gil. Okay. Uh, more with Wes on the other side. NBA playoffs with Wes Reynolds. 11:45 It's a Numbers Game at VSID, the Sports Betting Network. 11:48 [upbeat music]Sports Betting Network Want to know where the money is really going? 12:08 Unlike other sources, our betting splits come straight from Circa and DraftKings, gives you insights into where the sharp action is landing. 12:14 Circa known for taking big bets from pro bettors, while DraftKings provides a broader market perspective. That means you're getting the real action, not just public money, but the kind of wagers that move lines. 12:23 See the percentage of bets versus percentage of handle on every game across every major sport, helping you make smarter, more informed bets. 12:29 Get VSiN's summer special right now for only $59 until August 1st at vsin.com/subscribe. Let's go, Alexander. The entire break, uh, Wes and, uh, Wyatt are nerding out on WrestleMania. 12:41 Of course, WrestleMania 12, Wyatt said it was, uh, was it Bret Michaels and Hart? No, I don't know the names. Uh, we get tweets that beat the book. I always appreciate the, uh, feedback. 12:50 See Spackler, "I suspected that All Star Wrestling was not real back in 1963 when I was five, and it was on black and white TV. 12:58 When I was six, I figured out the good guy, bad guy setup couldn't bet my edge, so I lost interest after that. Go Crusher, beat the Romanoff twins." [laughs] I've lost all control. 13:08 Ben Handorf, "I'm surprised Spore hasn't heard Gil's Ernie impression, almost as elite as Gilly's Earnest Johnson impression." Actually, that's an Ernie Johnson impression. 13:18 Uh, every time Earnest Johnson came up on, uh, on, uh, guessing lines, I would break into the [laughs] break into the Ernie Johnson. Bill Hooker, "Wes sold himself short. 13:27 Pretty sure he was nine and one on placement market bets for the RBC Heritage." What say you, Wes? Were you nine and one? 13:37 Colin Morikawa, who I bet for top 10, uh, he's Colin Parakawa because he did not make many birdies, uh, for me. He's a guy I thought had a chance to win the tournament. 13:47 So, uh, you know, ended up with a little bit of a profit, certainly not as much as the outright. But Gil, I do want... 13:53 I- before we move on to the NBA, I do wanna say I saw a bunch of the fans around town for WrestleMania, and look, I, I don't like the cosplay as grown-ass adults, uh, you know, when you're dressing like a wrestler, but I don't mind all the T-shirts supporting your favorite wrestler or supporting, uh, the sport or the form of entertainment, and I did see a great T-shirt. 14:14 Pro wrestling is real. People are fake. [laughs] Okay. Did you- I love that T-shirt. [laughs] I did. I would, I would not wear it- Yeah... nor would I buy it, but I like the message. I, I understand. 14:26 You, before we move on from this, from this mishigas, you wanted to say something about the ramp? Was that it? 14:31 Yeah, last night, uh, uh, when everybody apparently, 'cause I was texting with some people that were in, uh, in the stadium on Sunday night, and last night when everybody... 14:40 'cause there's downtime 'cause they gotta set up the stage and everything for the main event, so it's kinda like a little break in the show, and that's where everybody's going to the restroom or going to the merch stand or wherever, and then all of a sudden the glass shatters, and that's when Stone Cold Steve Austin came out. 14:56 There were literally grown men running back to their seats from the bathroom to see Stone Cold Steve Austin. 15:02 He comes down the ramp on this, you know, four-wheeler ATV and speeds down the ramp and does, like, little laps around the ring like he's, uh, you know, in the Daytona 500 or something. 15:13 He gets distracted and looks at the announcer's table as he's taking a, uh, taking the lap around the ring, and crashes into the barricade and, like, knocks the front row, especially this one lady, it was just like timber. 15:26 She just falls over back into her seat, and he's getting in the ring to announce the attendance and, you know, cut a little promo, and the audience obviously loves Stone Cold Steve Austin. 15:36 He's one of the biggest stars in the history of, of wrestling. And so he's going in to announce that. 15:41 As the camera is on him, Nick Khan, who is the CEO of WWE, you know, long time sports agent, a guy actually was born and raised here in Las Vegas, kind of a real mover in the shaker in the industry, sprints over to see if this lady is okay, you know, or, or maybe to have a, a release form in hand or offer her something, uh, uh, for her troubles. 16:04 Uh, so, uh, yeah, sprinted over is like, "Man, we really don't want a lawsuit here," 'cause it's on live pay-per-view. It's on for everybody to see all over the world. 16:13 He just crashes right into the barricade, and then kinda when he gets off the ATV, he says, "Oh, sorry about that," and then gets in the ring and, uh, does what he does. 16:21 But yeah, yeah, kind of a funny moment, but you're like, "Okay, is that lady okay?" Apparently, uh, no worse for wear. When actual real stuff happens during WrestleMania 41. 16:31 Um, all right, to the NBA, 'cause you are following this too. Your Pacers started things off this weekend with a blowout of the Bucks, the Lillard-less Bucks, uh, we should point out. 16:41 Um, what was your big takeaway from this weekend? What are you betting here? Anything tonight? Yeah, and, and I did bet the... I was a little bit surprised. 16:48 I- Dame is gonna play in this series, but he was gonna miss game one. I'm guessing he's gonna be back for game two. 16:55 So I guess I wasn't surprised to see that series price discounted, but it got, it got down there I think, I think even at Circa, like, to, like, -145 for the Pacers. And then that's when I grabbed it. 17:07 So now it's about -275, -280. I know the Bucks beat the Pacers three out of four this season, but a lot of that stuff you can't, you can't, I, I guess, weigh too much simply because you have guys that sit out games. 17:21 You have injuries at, at a different time. But the Pacers I thought kinda got discounted. 17:27 Uh, there was another platform, uh, I believe sponsored by a certain sportsbook that said, "I haven't really watched the Pacers very much this year," a couple former NBA players on that program. 17:36 And it's like, well, if you haven't, they've been the fourth best record in the NBA since January 1st. [laughs] Like, this is a good team. Tyrese Haliburton is healthy. They're deep. 17:47 And I just thought, man, this team's getting a little bit discounted. Uh, even, even with Dame coming back, I think they're better than the Bucks. 17:54 And I, and I, you know, you don't wanna, okay, say, oh, they blew 'em out in game one, you know, and just discount the Bucks, but I think that they're better than this team. So, uh, I feel good about the Pacers. 18:05 The Clippers, who got moved to favorites over the Nuggets in the series There wasn't much of a move the other way. Usually it is substantial. I think the Clippers, uh, closed like minus 115, minus 120 in the series. 18:18 They covered late, but the Nuggets held on to get the game one win. And the Clippers now are only, like, a plus $1.10 or plus $1.15. So that tells you that there's a lot of respect for the Clippers- Mm-hmm... I think. 18:32 And I still think they're gonna win the series. I, I think they're laying one now. They were about one-and-a-half point underdogs when they opened for game two. Now they're laying one pretty much across the board. 18:43 This Clippers team, this defense has been, other than what we saw with the Thunder yesterday, where they absolutely swallowed Memphis and beat them by 50, you know, they were up by 50 at one point in that game. 18:54 Clippers, I think, are the o- the, the, probably the second-best defensive team in the league. I know they're, they're up there in D-rating. 18:59 So Clippers still getting a lot of respect in the market, and I think rightfully so. I kinda think they're the dark horse in the west. 19:06 Yeah, on the other hand, right, the other team still has Nikola Jokic last I checked, right? Yes. So I'm, I'm wondering, 'cause obviously we're... 19:14 Listen, we're, we're super close to the sun on all these sports and betting it, but it is really the, the Clippers love from the NBA hardos is so consensus it feels like, that I just wonder what would take that c- that feeling off of that finally. 19:31 Would it be a two to nothing Denver lead, or would that not even do it, right? 'Cause then, 'cause then it'll go to, "Well, they just did what they were supposed to do," that k- that kind of thing. 19:38 By the way, you, you mentioned the thing about the Pacers and the announcer sort of, like, not even getting, like... Y- j- you didn't follow the NBA this year. That was only topped by Jay Bilas. Did you catch this? 19:49 In the Lakers game calling, uh, LeBron not a complainer, uh, generally [laughs] not generally speaking. [laughs] That was awesome. That went over well. No- Yeah... man, never, never. No, good, good call. Yeah. 20:01 Nev- never complains about a call. Speaking of the Lakers though, I never wanna overreact to game one. 20:08 I don't like what I saw out of the Lakers, and I think that they were getting all the hype coming in because Pelinka won the executive of the year. 20:15 And look, they have their next superstar for the next several years once LeBron hangs it up with Luka Dončić. But I felt like the Lakers for the playoffs probably were better with AD o- o- o- on the team actually. 20:29 And, uh, they just don't have the length to guard some of these guys on, on the Timberwolves really with, with, with the Reid and, you know, McDaniels and all these guys. 20:40 And this Minnesota team, by the way, has some playoff pedigree. 20:43 Remember they ran it all the way, you know, to the, to, to the West Finals last year, and they've got one of the more clutch players in the league with Anthony Edwards. 20:51 Uh, so I just, I, I didn't like what I saw out of the Lakers. I don't think that they're winning this series at all. You never wanna overreact to game one, but I think, I think the Lakers are getting bounced. 21:02 Yeah, I said this earlier, but the one thing that I'm totally, uh, people can call it an overreaction, but I'm totally reacting to, is I, I had laid the points with the Thunder in game one. 21:13 I see no reason why not to lay them again against the Grizzlies and probably do it in games three and four, whatever those adjustments are on the road. 'Cause I just... That I g- I get it. 21:23 They're not gonna win by 51 every night, but good God, SGA didn't even play that great, relatively speaking. So for me, that's, that's the ultimate sweep- Yeah... sweep sort of thing. You, you, you don't love that? 21:34 They, they might, they, they might have one dud, but I think they're gonna win the series comfortably, just... 21:39 And, and, and people that may have thought, "Oh, the Thunder are just a regular season team," that team won 68 games. Yeah. 21:45 And they're, they're gonna be tough to beat, and they are so connected, you know, with, with the chemistry. And I think having that experience last year... 21:53 'Cause usually the first time you have a good season and you get into the playoffs, it's, like, too much for you, right? It's too much, too soon for a young team. 22:01 But now that they've got Chet healthy and they've got really good defenders and you got the guy that's gonna win the MVP with SGA like you were saying, uh, they're gonna be tough to beat. 22:10 And everybody kinda looking for that team that's like, "Okay, who's the dark horse?" You know, all these teams can knock them off. 22:16 That, that was very impressive yesterday to come out in game one, a week off, not have a clunker and just absolutely destroy Memphis. 22:23 So just to clarify, are you on the Clippers tonight, or are you touching the Knicks-Pistons at all? Uh, I am on the Clippers. 22:29 Uh, i- if I can get seven with the Pistons, I'll be there, 'cause I thought the Pistons were at least gonna take this six games. Bad fourth quarter. Knicks went on, like, a 21 to nothing run, but- 21 to nothing. Yes... 22:41 uh, yeah, I s- I think the Pistons though. I know they're young and inexperienced, but I think they can compete here. It was also how they reacted afterwards. I was talking about it. 22:48 It was such a strange final 90 seconds. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it, man. You bet, Gil. Thanks for having me. Wes Reynolds, everybody. Coming back with Andy Molitor on the dra- [upbeat rock music] 23:03 A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN fans, it's time to plan your Vegas getaway. 23:08 Circa Las Vegas owner Derek Stevens is offering you 15% off at three incredible properties: Circa Las Vegas, The D Hotel, and Golden Gate. 23:17 Whether you're lounging by Circa's stunning rooftop pool or enjoying all the excitement Vegas has to offer, you'll save big with promo code VSiN15. That's VSiN one five. Book your stay now at CircaLasVegas.com. 23:28 Use VSiN15 to get 15% off. Your Vegas adventure starts here. Breaking news, Cooper Flagg is declared for the NBA draft, I'm told in my ear by Wyatt Tomchek. 23:39 And our next guest quipped very quickly right off, he goes, "Wow, he could go high," [laughs] in his typical humorous fashion. It is the, uh, the s- the second part of the, of the Drew Dincic-Andy Molitor duo. 23:52 I always say Andy's name every week when Drew comes on. Part of the Deep Dive podcast, and now they do their daily deep dives, the both of them, each and every morning. They're having a great time doing it. 24:02 Andy Molitor joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. And you can follow, uh, Andy on Twitter at AndyMSFW. How you doing, man? 24:12 Not too bad for a Monday Not too bad for- Ho-holiday weekend, but not one of the wilder holidays, I, I suppose No. [laughs] No, not one of the wilder ones. 24:21 Uh, on the daily, you were saying this off air, but you're also giving it time to breathe. You guys are even breaking down the next pope. May, uh, Pope Francis rest in peace. 24:29 Yeah, that's gonna be a market that's gonna be up, uh... I'm gonna have to rewatch "Conclave," I guess. It was a good film. Yeah. [laughs] Gonna have to rewatch it. Um, so we're giving that time to breathe. 24:38 We won't get into it this morning. Uh, let me ask you, so let's go to the NFL draft, and you, you and Drew do a great job with this. Um, we love, as you guys do, betting the NFL draft. Are you... 24:49 Let's start with the macro first. Are you of the mindset that most people don't know much here, or are you starting to come around on this? I think it's one of those years where most people don't know much. 25:02 You know, the information is meted out in little bits, and you kind of have to be quick and willing to lay some juice because, you know, when, when it became very apparent who the number one pick was, that price was reasonable. 25:14 It's not reasonable anymore. You could have bet that. Uh, you know, it, it makes it tough in the content game, too, because some of this informational stuff is just, "Oh, everyone's gonna go run and bet this now. 25:25 We can't even talk about this tomorrow morning, really." So I mean, uh, some of the bets I have are decent. 25:31 I have two or three, but obviously they're blown out of the water at this point as, you know, the first two or three picks have kinda come into focus, I guess, and the rest of the draft feels pretty crap shooting despite, uh, you know, some people with quite a bit of confidence, I guess, in some of these picks, even, you know, in the top 10. 25:50 Yeah, I, uh, I have five picks, but the first one is the only one I love, which is Travis Hunter to go number two. Got him at, like, plus 135, which wasn't- Nice... 25:58 the best price you could get him at, but now he's obviously prohibitive favorite. Um, I'm curious, I... Do you think... Like, where does it stop? So Cam Ward to Tennessee, Hunter, two to the Browns, 26:11 Carter, three to the Giants. Are we sure about that at least? I think we're sure about that, and man, everybody out of New England is really sure that that pick is kinda locked in stone. 26:24 Obviously, we had some, some stuff this morning from Schefter throwing a little mud in the water on the Jags pick, but some of that feels like pop- you know, posturing for possible trades as well. 26:37 You know, i- if the first five just go chalk, so be it. 26:40 I thi- I think, you know, it's probably 50/50 that we don't get something weird, but from there, you know, the, the, the confidence that people have in six and seven is a little disconcerting considering, you know, just all the new GMs. 26:52 We have, we've rolled over, like, six to seven GMs every year, and we have a bunch of guys we've never seen make picks, and obviously we have new, new coaching staffs, new brain trusts in Vegas and New York. 27:03 So I think those are where, kinda... The draft might get really interesting at six, seven, eight. Well, that... I think that's such a great point. 27:10 And by the way, that, you know, our buddy Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, he- I think he threw out over five and a half now on Graham, which is his way of perhaps, you know, riffing off the Schefter news as like, "Hey, I, I don't think the Jaguars are actually gonna pick Graham at five." 27:24 Um, but y- I think your greatest point, Kelly was talking about this off air, maybe even on air last week. In a draft where we don't know much after the very, very tippy top of it, 27:34 maybe the way to exploit then is the positional markets, right? I think that's such a great point. 27:40 Uh, Luke was on here, just to reference him again, saying last week, "Hey, New Orleans to go defensive line/edge at seven to one with their first pick," you might as well take a flyer on something like that. 27:52 You agree with that general philosophy? Yeah, that's kind of been my, my go-to over the last few days is when I've been looking at some of these markets because, you know, there's two ways to approach it. 28:02 Either you know the answer, so you have to go find as many ways to hammer it. I mean, I remember, you know, when we figured out Walker was going first overall, and it's like, how many different ways can we make this bet? 28:12 Do we know who two is now at this point? And, you know, uh, when you have information, you just go find a million ways to bet it. 28:19 No, doesn't matter what the juice is if you're sure of the, you know, you're sure of the source. 28:23 But with this, I think you look at the percentages and look at some of the stuff that could f- you know, happen in front of it. Like, well, what, what weird stuff could happen, and where could we go from there? 28:32 Because especially the J- I bet the Jets this morning. I found a 23 to 1 to, gosh, what was it? 28:40 Uh, I'm gonna have to reference it 'cause it's, like, 16 to 1 in some other places, but there was a 23 to 1 to go linebacker, uh, for the Jets this morning. 28:49 And I know, like, everything, oh, this is such a perfect fit at number eight, and maybe it's not the best fit, but we got Glen in New York now, and, you know, when he was part of the Lions staff, they were certainly not just drafting, "Hey, here's the best fit, and here's our, you know, our greatest need, and this is the guy that we need to take right now," and that everybody's mocking to the Lions. 29:10 Like, he was part of that staff that kinda went a little wild the draft, and if Walker went to the Jets, I, I don't know, maybe that's your Zach Bond. 29:18 Maybe that's kind of a key to unlocking some of the things at the second and third level there for you, and, you know, I've seen stranger things and just some big numbers on some stuff that definitely has higher than, you know, whatever that's implied to, like a 3, 4% chance to happen. 29:33 I totally agree. That's a, that's a great strategy on this because I, I do think it's gonna be mayhem maybe starting at five. Where, where are you on Jeanty now? 29:41 Like, if I said to you, "All right, Andy, i- is he going to the Raiders at six or not?" What, what's your answer to that? 29:48 I mean, some, some pretty strong conviction from some people in the know saying he isn't going past six. Oh, okay. 29:54 But that, but I mean, that, that stuff with the, the Jaguars, that really has me, you know, wondering what would happen. 30:01 Because l- let's say the, you know, the Jaguars do have some interest that nobody knew about till now, or somebody trades into that spot and he's gone at five. 30:11 I think that's another one, too, where if that's something you believe, I think you have to act on the Raiders as well. You have to make some bets there. 30:17 Because you can, uh, I don't know, y- you can probably look at them to maybe take defense at that point. I guess, um, that was another one too that we attacked last week, Drew and I on the Daily Show. 30:28 Uh, offensive line to the Raiders before that got a little heat was, like, nine to one, and that's come way down to the point where I'm, I'm looking at maybe hedging that off with some other positions now. 30:39 I, I think that really is how, how the way to start on this draft is those positional markets. I think it's, it's as good a strategy of anything in a draft that could go completely sideways here. 30:50 And then your buddy, your podcast partner, Drew, who's, who's kind enough to come on this show every Tuesday, um, he, you know, uh, he, he may end up being right about this. 30:59 I'm not saying he's g- he's not going to be, but I was amazed at the confidence, and apparently when you and I were just talking off air, you might be as well. 31:07 I was amazed at the confidence he had that Shador could go early second round, that for the Giants working him out was them legitimately working him out for their second round pick. You don't completely buy that. 31:22 No, just because it is quarterback and it is, you know, it's, it's the parlay, man. It's the big hit. 31:29 If you get that one right, if you believe in your scouts and your, and your information, and you believe in one of these quarterbacks that's not Ward, further down the board and you're the Rams, you're the Steelers, you're another team, maybe the Saints trading back in. 31:44 If you hit that and you're a GM, you just bought yourself 10 more years in the corner office. Like, that's such a perfect, uh, risk reward kind of thing to go for for some of these guys. 31:54 And man, we saw this last year with some of the teams that weren't New England. You know, you, you had those quarterbacks go at the top. 32:01 You know, we went quarterback, quarterback, quarterback, and there was a lot of smoke with Minnesota taking one, and obviously Denver was thinking about it. The Raiders were obviously thinking about it. 32:11 But I thought Denver, Minnesota, and, you know, maybe especially Atlanta, they were really quiet about it. So I think some of these teams that are quarterback needy 32:21 and maybe even less needy than, you know, the highest need quarterback teams, they're just keeping their mouth shut because there's a bunch of guys in the same tier. 32:29 There's a bunch of teams that may trade back into the first. 32:32 So I, I think it's another case of we just don't have any information, and we might be super surprised at two or three teams taking quarterbacks early on, especially if they trade back into the first. 32:42 Yeah, Todd McShay came out this morning. He said he'd bet under two and a half quarterbacks. But I'm with you. I just think these GMs, and somewhat justifiably, right? You're nothing without a quarterback. 32:52 They've gotta take a shot, so maybe it is a, a, just, you know, mum's the word at this point. So I leave you with this. We only have 30 seconds. 32:58 If the bets you've made are far gone, if s- if someone was landing here today and they're like, "I wanna make one bet in the NFL draft," what do you say to them right now? 33:08 You know, I did take some over 14 and a half on the SEC. Oh, okay. I, I started looking at that as a, an under bet because there are so many guys that are near the end of that round. 33:18 But every time it said, "Well, who re- who replaces him to bump him out?" It was just another SEC guy. 33:24 There's just, like, eight, eight SEC guys that are kind of in that 25 to 35 range, and it just really feels like we end up with 15 or 16 there. So I laid a little juice on that. Andy Molitor, everybody. 33:36 Andy, uh, uh, Deep Dive Daily, what time does it come out every day roughly? 9:30 Central, so what is that, your time? 7:30 out on the Pacific coast. There you go. Morning. Andy, appreciate it, man. Good to see you. 33:50 [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 34:10 Back on the numbers game live at Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. This is Gil Alexander. Wyatt Tomchek in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlack. Look at this, look at this guy right here. 34:19 That's the voice of UNLV women's basketball, everybody. Thank you. Uh, you know what? You, we can talk about the Lady Rebels more than WrestleMania, so you can... 34:27 W- WrestleMania, you know, I enjoyed this for the one day. Yeah. We'll hold it for next year, but the Lady Rebels, we can go 365. Okay. All right. Well, maybe we'll, maybe we'll do a little less than 365 on that. Okay. 34:36 I don't know. 364. [laughs] Uh, it's funny, I did a whole, uh, segment there with Andy, Andy Molitor on the NFL draft, but it's funny what people glean from it. JC, this is on Twitter, uh, we get tweets. 34:46 JC562076, 2075 was taken. "Did you just say breaking down who's the next pope? You can bet on that? I'm assuming that's offshore. P.S. Go Dubs." Yes, go Dubs, and yes, you can bet on it. 35:00 By the way, the Jason Weingartens of the world, obsessed with these kinds of things. 35:05 Stringfellow Hawker, buddy, he goes, "Betting into a market for the next pope [laughs] has to be a direct path to H-E-double-hockey-sticks," he says. And that's why we're giving it time to rest. 35:14 And by the way, rest in peace, uh, Pope Francis, a, a very progressive pope, very beloved, uh, as well. But yes, in our little corner of the world, some people, not me, some people- I was about to say, don't-... 35:26 like to bet on them... don't tell me that you bet it 'cause the lightning might come down and get me. No, no, no, no, no. I don't bet on such things. Okay. At least not yet. 35:31 [laughs] Um, by the way, so the NFL draft tomorrow, not only will we have Drew on the show on a numbers game talking NFL draft and NBA and tennis with us as, uh, both the men's and ladies tour goes into Madrid for 1,000 tournaments or 1,000 tournaments, plural. 35:46 Um, but we'll talk NFL draft with Drew tomorrow on the show, and then after the show, so two hours after the show, um, after Stormy does money moves, we'll come in here and we'll do the Beating the Book NFL Draft podcast with Drew and Luke Swain, Vegas Refund. 36:02 All their latest bets, all their latest thoughts on the NFL draft. By that time, we'll be close to 48 hours away to the NFL draft, which of course is Thursday night. It's also on YouTube Live. 36:14 Yes, we're gonna be trying to, uh, set that up, uh, get all, everything all ready to go. But yeah, just people, if they wanna go check the VSiN page, go to the live section, and I'll give you, uh, a link to tweet out. 36:25 But- Okay... you can watch kind of even the behind the scenes. So Darnell, unfortunately, sorry, you have to work a little extra, uh- [laughs]... tomorrow. So- And, uh, you have to pay Isaiah 100 bucks for the studio. 36:33 What? Uh, is that what he's doing? He's running a little, uh, little sub, uh, business in here? Would you, would you be surprised? No, I would not be. [laughs] So wait, so it's, it's for the NFL Draft Live- Yep... 36:44 it's YouTube, it's the VSiN YouTube channel- Mm-hmm... and then you go to the Live tab. Yes. And it'll be me in here with Luke. Will they be able to see Luke and Drew on the- Yeah, yeah... 36:52 it's not just gonna be me the whole time, right? No, no, yeah, we'll put a three box- Okay... and everything ready to go. Looking forward to it. Yeah, NFL Draft pod. Trying to make money here. 36:59 Well- We're trying to make bets... may, may I ask you, I mean, we've been talking about how me loving WrestleMania, but for the- You, you can ask me anything, Wyatt... for the NFL draft- Yeah... 37:06 what does that rank for you in sporting events that you like? Oh, it's way up there. It's Christmas for adults. Mm-hmm. It's the greatest thing in the world. From a betting standpoint, it used to be 37:16 tippy-top, like, it used to be top of the top, because it used to be, as I, as we've said many times here, an ATM machine. 37:22 But it hasn't been the last two years, which is why, you know, now the books want all this credit here in Vegas. They're like, "Oh, look, we have NFL Draft props up." 37:30 Yeah, and then they take them down two nights from now, and they want, like, a blue ribbon. They want a gold star for their efforts. It's like, you know, give us a, give a, have a loss leader. Give bettors something. 37:41 Trust me, you're gonna win in the long run. Like, you know that. But they're, the, but, like, the inability to even step out on a, on the slightest limb with this stuff, and they've won the last two years. Mm-hmm. 37:51 So- Yeah, I remember you saying you, there were a couple drafts where you were r- you did really well. Oh, if you, if, if you're a Numbers Game listener long enough- Yeah... 37:59 you, you know we had, like, two or three years where we just destroyed it. Remember, that was the one where we sort of, we, eh- Was that the Trey Lance one? That was... Well, no. 38:07 The Trey Lance, well, the Trey Lance one we did well on. Okay. Yes. That was the last great one, I think. Mm-hmm. What was that, 2021? 2021. Oh, no, so there was a good one after that, too. Okay. But the, um... 38:17 I mean, this goes back as far as, I mean, VSiN started in 2017. I wanna say I was doing the NFL Draft before most of the others were. Now it's like a big cottage industry. 38:26 But there was, there was a couple years there where we were the only ones doing it on Numbers Game. And 2018, if you remember, was the year where William Hill tried to screw bettors, and we talked about it on air, right? 38:39 Gave them the chance to take it down, right? They didn't wanna do it. We did the whole segment on it, and Nick Bogdanovich was a man about it. 38:47 He immediately, right after the segment, was like, "Tell everybody to call me. We'll get everybody paid." 38:51 And by the way, that's exactly how I handled the Westgate thing, even though they lied and said I'd handled it differently. That's the exact same way I handled that. 38:58 I said, "Hey, just so you know, I'm gonna talk about it on air." Mm-hmm. They twisted it into a lie, right? 39:03 Uh, kept lying about it, got people here to lie about it also, 'cause those are their friends, and we handled everything the exact same way, right? And so that's as far back as we've gone beating... 39:15 That, that NFL Draft in 2018, I think we're, like, 12 and one. Okay. Yeah. So, but, but now, it's not as good. 39:23 And this draft, this draft is, is very difficult to understand what's gonna happen after the fourth pick, 'cause now it doesn't... I don't know if the d- I don't know if the Jaguars are gonna take Graham at five. Okay. 39:34 I don't know if the Raiders are gonna take Jeanty at six. You, would you say the most polarizing player to, to figure out where he's gonna go, is it Shedeur Sanders? 39:42 It's, it's representative of the wide variance- Mm-hmm... of how, where he can go from top to bottom. Mm-hmm. 39:48 Some people still think that because teams are really desirous of quarterbacks, justifiably so, you're nothing in this league without a good one, that maybe New Orleans will stay, will still take him at nine. 39:59 Now we're starting to hear they won't. If he doesn't go at nine, like, Andy and I were just talking about this more off-air than we were on, Drew could be right. Maybe Shedeur Sanders goes second round. 40:08 But Drew is so confident about it that I'm like, "Whoa, you're that..." Like, I think Andy might be right. 40:14 I think if, if now everybody knows that he's going to drop, that somebody's gonna trade in, or somebody who's just sitting quiet late in the first round is just gonna be like, "Well, guess what? 40:26 We're taking a quarterback. Shedeur, you're coming to pick your team," late, you know, in the 20s somewhere. So I, I just... 40:33 The McShay thing where he's now saying it's under two and a half quarterbacks, he seems really confident about that, but good God, I don't know. 40:42 It's, it, it's an interesting draft because if what he's saying is also true, right? 40:45 If Shedeur and Jaxson Dart last year were only gonna be, like, the sixth or seventh best quarterbacks, it just shows you, it's like, at some point, what takes over? 40:56 These teams' desire to take a, you know, take a lottery, you know, shot on a quarterback just in the hopes that they just happen to get lucky and this guy pans out? 41:06 Or do they rely on their evaluation and say, "Well, as much as our instinct is to try to hit a home run," to mix metaphors, "the fact of the matter is they're not really that good. 41:17 And so we gotta, we gotta fight that instinct." And then for j- for GMs, if you strike out on a, uh, quarterback in the first round, you're, you're updating the resume reel. You are, you are behind the eight-ball badly. 41:29 Yep. That's the thing. But the, the alternative is, this is why the NFL's so tough, right? The alternative is what, we're gonna go through another season with nobody? Mm-hmm. 41:38 Like, you know, the Browns are dealing with it. The Browns are like, "Well, yeah, we get it. We'll, we'll be probably high in the draft next year, too, but we're prepared for that." Some teams aren't. 41:47 Some teams are like, "No, we're not prepared to do that." So they gotta, they gotta, you know, sort of ad lib from that point. It's, it's a tough thing, man. 41:56 It's the most, the NFL Draft is the most inexact science there is, and then on top of that, we're betting on it, trying to figure out how these people are gonna play it inexactly, if that makes sense. 42:06 So it's, it's, it's a fascinating thing. But to answer your initial question, it's not at the top anymore because there's so much more uncertainty to me. 42:12 Um, to our best bets of the day, courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Uh, every host, every guest, every sport that has bet on this, uh, network recapped by gbank, the official bank of VSiN. 42:24 Paul Sporar, Marlins under, these are adjusted Major League Baseball season win totals. Marlins under 62 and a half wins, White Sox over 51 and a half wins. How about that? 42:34 He gave his reasoning as to why he thinks the, uh, Marlins are gonna be sellers, and he thinks the White Sox will still be able to cobble together close to 60 wins. 42:42 Uh, this from Wes Reynolds, who came on the show here earlier this hour, this is, uh, today he's on the Cardinals team total under three and a half runs. He is on the Blue Jays plus a half a run first five. 42:55 That is this, uh, this day in baseball, and then he's going back to the Clippers. 42:59 Well, Clippers to win the series now, down a game against the Nuggets in the best of seven first round Western Conference series, plus 115 on the Clippers. 43:08 Again, not a huge adjustments- adjustment to the market, so he is on the Clippers, as are so many folks on the Clippers in this series. And then Andy Molitor did, uh, give us one bet here. 43:19 He's, h- the ones that he has in pocket are far gone, but the one that is readily available for everybody, he went with a conference play over 14 and a half SEC players in the first round. 43:30 In other words, they will either flirt with or achieve having, according to that bet, half of the players picked in the entire first round of the NFL draft. Would that not be something? Um, 14 and a half. 43:43 Of course, he could thread the needle with 15, but wow, over 14 and a half SEC players. 43:48 G Bank, the official bank of VSIN, uh, once again upping the ante as they always do, uh, with a $750 bonus for new G Bank Visa Signature Card customers. 43:58 First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus. 44:05 In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. 44:16 That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. We don't have to talk about WrestleMania 41 anymore. That covers it today. We sure didn't. We did Friday and Monday. I appreciate you. 44:27 You, I'm in, in debt to you for the rest of my life. No, you're not. [laughs] I'm just glad that the event was such an amazing experience for you. It was, uh- Life-changing. Yes, but I didn't buy an expensive belt. 44:37 Don't worry. How much do those cost? Hundreds of dollars. I've had to buy one for fantasy football 'cause I finished in last. And people buy them? Yes. Money Moves with Stormy and Matt next right here at VSIN.
