Transcript 0:02 The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you. 0:11 It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. It's radio's Gil Alexander, everybody. 0:22 Wyatt Tomchek in for Kelly Bidlin on this fine Tuesday morning. How you doing, sir? I'm good. Uh, tell you what, Gil. Yes, sir. What an amazing sports night we had last night. It was incredible. Between- Unbelievable... 0:33 between the hockey games and the basketball games, an unbelievable night, and we will talk with, uh, multiple folks about both. Jay Cohn about the NHL playoffs, handicapping those momentarily. 0:44 Uh, Nick Whalen will come in, our own Nick Whalen, VSiN's own Nick Whalen, uh, will join us to talk about the NBA slate tonight. Drew then about tennis in Madrid maybe, certainly the NBA. 0:55 And, uh, we're doing an NFL draft podcast at, uh, 11:00 AM Pacific today, 2:00 PM Eastern, on YouTube TV, on our live- The, uh, uh, you- the YouTube channel. Yep... not YouTube TV. Pardon me. On our YouTube channel. 1:09 Yes, sir. So you go to the VSiN YouTube page and you click on live. Yep. It should be, uh, right now if you go to, uh, you'll see it's scheduled. Yeah. If you wanna just- Okay... 1:18 click, click that link and just give it- And just stare at it all day... just stare at it all day, ready to go. Well- But Gil will be tweeting it out, and I'll make sure to retweet it on the VSiN. Oh, that's correct. 1:25 I will tweet it out. Uh, but Drew, Luke Swain, Vegas Refund that is, and I will do a podcast on the NFL draft a little later today, but we will touch on the NFL draft with Drew. What do we know at the top? 1:35 How far down can we go now? Do we know one, two, three, and four? And then do we know anything after that? Anything at all? 'Cause I really, the more I hear, the more I'm convinced we know nothing. 1:46 Uh, and then Matt Brown, who will join Stormy for Money Moves after us, he'll actually come in a little earlier to talk NFL draft with us. So a whole bunch of NFL draft, a whole bunch of NBA and NHL. 1:55 Um, before I get into the games last night in the NBA, have I mentioned this before? This is totally rando, it has nothing to do with anything, but, um, my father passed away about three and a half years ago. 2:04 Three and a half years ago. 2:05 Um, it was my mom this past year, but my dad three and a half years ago, and ever since he died, and the reason I associate this with him is 'cause it happened right after he passed away, is my TV turns on by itself now sometimes. 2:19 So just from the... And I don't usually believe in this kind of stuff, but from the moment he passed away, my, my TV will randomly, while I'm asleep, while I'm away, I'll just come home to the Roku page. 2:31 The Roku sort of- Mm... what is that? What do you call it? The, like, screen saver. Yeah, like do you wanna- Yeah. I, I suppose if it, like, randomly went to, like, Family Feud- I was gonna say, if-... 2:40 I wouldn't associate the two things where it's like, "This Steve Harvey is hilarious." That wouldn't be my dad. 2:46 But I, I figured then that when my mom passed away, I figured maybe this will go away 'cause now that my mom's passed away, like, if you believe in this stuff, right, you, you, it follows that maybe he would go. 2:53 But it would be totally like him, 'cause it hasn't stopped. It would be totally like him to be like, "Don't tell your mother I'm here," right? And just [laughs] just keep with it. 3:02 Anyway, I just wanna know from anybody, does your TV randomly turn on by itself? Does anybody else have this experience? I, my TV does not turn on randomly. Okay. And I'd be very, very spooked. 3:12 Well, the first time it happened, I was totally spooked. Now, do you, is the TV the same as it's been the last- Yes... handful of y- Okay. Yes, yes. Okay. Same thing. 3:19 So it's not like it's like if you get a new TV and it's still doing it. That one I'd be like- No, no, no. That I'd, yeah, that's crazy. 3:24 Anyway, I, I- But by the way, you were, uh, who said that you had a great impersonation y- the other day? I, I can't remember who it was. I think it was on Ernie Johnson. On Ernie Johnson, yeah. 3:33 Obviously, you know, uh, uh, never will meet your parents, but I feel like I know them- Oh... by the way you- Oh, that's very nice of you... the, it, it's like spot on. They would've enjoyed you, Wyatt. 3:43 Who was that guy that called you Wyland on, on Twitter yesterday? [laughs] Yeah, you sent me a tweet yesterday, and I'm like, first I thought it was the pods, and I like- Wyland... 3:49 I, I, I, I messed it up, and I'm like, I looked at the tweet, I'm like, "Wyland?" [laughs] I'm like, "How, how? It's Wyatt." [laughs] I, I've never had that before. 3:56 I get, I get my last name getting misspelled, but- I love that. Um- Big Gil's gonna call me that for the rest of the week. Speaking of, uh, Ernie Johnson, did you see Shaq had to walk off the set yesterday? 4:04 [laughs] I actually, my roommate that- I did not. It was fantastic. He goes, "I gotta go." "I gotta go." 4:09 But the thing is, I thought it was, like, a number two situation, but he, the speed with which he came back suggests that it was a number one situation. I don't know. We, we'll, we'll get to the bottom of it. 4:16 Especially- My roommate said they should've kept the, uh, mic on. Special ed, they should have. For, in the ears of everybody. [laughs] That's from, uh, Naked Gun. Did you ever see Naked Gun? 4:22 No, I, uh- [laughs] That's a whole thing from Naked Gun. Uh, as far as the NBA last night, those two games were, were awesome. 4:28 I guess my, the main point that I w- uh, there's two points I wanna make about these games last night. The first of which is beware of how these N- these NBA games are Plinko, largely, right? They're Plinko. 4:40 It's like the Price Is Right game where the, uh, the metal, uh, chip, the metal disc just, you know, goes down rungs and then it speeds up and all of a sudden it falls in whatever slot it falls in randomly. 4:50 From an ATS perspective, a lot of that has to do with that. 4:53 And what goes on radio afterwards or sports, you know, or SportsCenter, whatever, is going to be largely driven by who ends up winning in the end, which oftentimes is just, it's basketball, right? It can be very random. 5:06 So take the Detroit Knicks game last night. The Pistons beat the Knicks 100 to 94. They knot up the best of seven series at one game a piece. And think about the thin line. 5:15 Remember, game one, the Pistons were up by eight, 98-90 in the fourth quarter, and then the Knicks go on a 21 to nothing run. 21 to nothing to go up 111 to 98 with 4:49 left. 5:28 And I mentioned this the other day, too, the Pistons did cut it to six with 1:23 left, but they couldn't have played it any worse or strangely from that point forward. 5:37 Ausar Thompson immediately committed a foul, and the Knicks just cruised. It looked like the Pistons just didn't believe that they could win that game at the end. 5:44 And so they, the Pistons probably thought, and correctly so, that they should have perhaps, could have for sure, but perhaps should have won game one. Last night, same sort of thing looked like it was brewing. 5:56 Pistons up 13 with seven minutes to go, but a 19 to six Knicks run ties it up at 94. I think Josh Hart was fouled on the, on the play that tied it up. They didn't call it. And then Schroeder 6:09 Just cold-blooded with 56 seconds left, he sinks a three, and Detroit never looked back. New York wouldn't score again. Um, both Brunson and Bridges had, uh, game-tying three opportunities. They both missed it. 6:22 Uh, Bridges was, uh, painfully short, clanging off the front of the rim. One hundred and ninety-four, so the Pistons knot it up, and it's a-- By the way, it's the Pistons' first franchise playoff win since 2008. 6:33 That breaks the longest active postseason win drought. Does that surprise you? W-with you growing up with the Bad Boys and what I grew up with, the-the Larry Brown. 6:42 Uh, no, 'cause if they were one of the candidates, I don't know that I would've pinpointed them as the team. I might've said the Wizards too, but they had some John Wall teams as well that, that won. 6:50 Uh, Cade Cunningham led the way, thirty-three points, twenty of which came in the first half. He also had twelve boards. Brunson thirty-seven and seven boards in defeat. 6:57 But what I'm getting at here is, you know, the narrative is going to be, wow, the upstart Pistons, this, uh, th-they should be up two-nothing, and now you're headed back to Detroit. Imagine if they lose this game, right? 7:10 It's ninety-four ninety-four. Imagine if the Knicks figure out a way to win it. The narrative is completely flipped on its head this morning. 7:16 It's like, wow, the Knicks couldn't have played worse in either game, and they're still up two to nothing, right? So y- so the entire, the entire sort of narrative of, of this completely changes on a dime. 7:28 Uh, Pistons six of twenty-seven from three. Add that to the narrative too, right? The Pistons couldn't have been worse. I suppose they could've been. I suppose they could've been four of twenty-seven or something. 7:38 But six of twenty-seven from behind the arc. They out-rebounded the Knicks forty-eight to thirty-four. 7:43 But if you go six of twenty-seven from three, if I give you that stat, you're probably thinking the Knicks win this game. KAT, Karl-Anthony Towns, scoreless in the second half. 7:52 He played the entire fourth quarter, didn't take a shot. The big thing that Tom Thibodeau was upset about was the free throw attempt disparity, the difference. Detroit twenty-eight of thirty-four from the line. 8:04 The Knicks sixteen of nineteen. So thirty-four attempts versus nineteen. 8:10 But poking holes in Thibodeau's, uh, sort of angle there, uh, the Pistons had twenty-four fouls called on them compared to the twenty-two that the Knicks were called for. 8:19 Cunningham, and he seized on the Cunningham versus Brunson difference. Cunningham actually went ten of twelve from the line. Brunson nine of eleven. So not quite exactly what Thibodeau was getting at. 8:29 But one to one, and we head back to Detroit with the Pistons having home court now. Uh, the other game, same sort of thing, right? The, the greatest game of the game ones was Clippers-Nuggets game one. 8:40 Game two did not disappoint either. Clippers win it, one oh five-one oh two. They tie up the best of seven Western Conference first round series at one game apiece. Uh, tied at one hundred apiece late. 8:53 Michael Porter with an awkward dribble stolen by Powell to Kawhi back to Powell. 8:58 Three-pointer with ninety seconds left to put the Clippers up one oh three to one hundred in a game that seemed like it was within three points almost the entire time with rare exception. 9:09 After two Jokic free throws, another Kawhi jumper. Nuggets would have a chance to tie it in the closing seconds. Brown misses a three. Jokic missed a desperation three. Ball game. Clippers one oh five-one oh two. 9:19 Again with the narrative. If the Clippers manage to lose this game, and again it was tied at a hundred with, just over ninety seconds left, it could go either way. It's Clippers are Clipper-ing. 9:30 This is them all over again. What do we expect? Why did everyone get hoodwinked into this? Instead it's, oh my God, it's twenty nineteen Raptors Kawhi. Kawhi Leonard thirty-nine points. 9:43 Perhaps the Clippers should be up two-nothing. People will say that if they're on that side of this, uh, this series. Kawhi thirty-nine points on fifteen of nineteen shooting from the field. Just unbelievable. 9:56 At one point, I was watching this, uh, in public, uh, at a bar. Not a bar, but a bar restaurant. And I said to my brother, I'm like, "I don't think I've seen Kawhi miss." 10:06 And usually when you say that in a game, you've typically missed a shot or two. He was twelve of thirteen when I said that. Like, he just barely missed. Yeah, but he was in God mode. I mean, fifteen of nineteen. 10:15 And what Kawhi Leonard does so well, and they were talking about it on the broadcast, his mid-range is so elite. Oh. He needs to continue to do that a lot more often. It's incredible. 10:24 Clippers advanced, uh, to the Western Conference finals in Leonard's second season, uh, with the team. But since then, they haven't gotten out of the first round. 10:32 Leonard limited to just four games in the previous two postseasons due to, uh, multiple injuries. Uh, remember the Clippers finishing the regular season on an eighteen and three run. 10:42 So this now tied at one game apiece headed back to Denver. But again, the thin line between what the narrative could be in both of these series this morning. 10:51 Uh, and so your job as a handicapper is largely to just eliminate that noise and go with what you really believe is sustainable. 10:59 The one thing that I think you, uh, you could benefit from though, of course, is our VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge. Fifteen handicappers doing this. 11:07 This is not just for us to look at each other and say, "Oh, wow, who's in the lead?" By the way, it's Fezzik and, uh, Vontobel, I believe, who are tied now. 11:14 But you have access if you're a subscriber at vsin.com/challenge to everybody's picks. Last night collectively, nine and one. Everybody went nine and one on their picks. 11:25 Uh, Sean Green, JBT, Zach Cohen, Kelly Bidlin, Doug Kazerian all on the Clippers. Kazerian also on the Clippers Nuggets under, which got there. 11:33 Uh, and then JBT, Alex Christensen, and Zach Cohen all on the Pistons plus the points. Nine and one in our NBA Playoff Challenge. Vsin.com/subscribe. Check it out. 11:43 Five hundred seventy picks in all this NBA Playoff postseason. Coming back, hockey with Jay Cohn next right here on The Numbers Game. 11:51 [upbeat music]Sports Betting Network Want to know where the money is really going? 12:08 Unlike other sources, our betting splits come straight from Circa and DraftKings Sportsbooks, giving you insight into where the sharp action is landing. 12:14 Circa's known for taking big bets from professional bettors, while DraftKings provides a broader market perspective. 12:19 That means you're getting the real action, not just public money, but the kind of wagers that move lines. 12:23 See the percentage of bets versus percentage of handle on every game across every major sport, helping you make smarter, more informed bets. 12:30 Get VSiN's summer special right now for only $59 until August 1st at vsin.com/subscribe. That's vsin.com/subscribe. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always, uh, appreciate the feedback. 12:42 Razor Blade, @RazorBladeSports, "BetOnline, Iga -180 for the French. Pinnacle dealing -140. Bookmaker," which is where I got mine, "still +115 as of yesterday." He said, "WTF is going on here? 12:57 Bookmaker's site down today for maintenance." Yes, it is overnight. Uh, they have some maintenance. 13:01 But that, that's what I mentioned, uh, was it last week with Zach, that all of a sudden Bookmaker's dealing a, was dealing a +117, +116, +115. Everybody else still in minus monies. 13:11 Now, this, of course, the reason that it's, there's a little bit of movement is because of her, uh, consecutive losses to Ayala in Miami and then, uh, to, uh, Ostapenko here at Stuttgart. 13:21 By the way, and we'll get into a little bit of this with Drew also, everyone she loses to ends up winning the tournament. S- It's very interesting. 13:29 Kevin Ryan, Road King KR, "Gil, tell the Joker last night it's not often someone has a triple-double and they were the player that caused their team to lose." 13:38 Eh, I don't know if you can ever say that really, 'cause, uh, you know, he, he... But, but you are right. He wasn't good at the free throw line, for one. Um, Zubac plays great defense on him. 13:48 I don't know if you can ever say Joker's the reason you lose, though. Old Guy Get Off My Lawn says, "We have two Samsung TVs that randomly turn on. Our Vizio TVs do not." Talking about experience with my TV. 14:01 And Drew from Boise, "Yes, my TV in the bedroom randomly comes on, usually within a few minutes after I turn it off. Only the TV in the bedroom." Yeah, this isn't a few minutes after for me. 14:11 This is just hours and hours, sometimes days. And Primetimecowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, hey man, after my mom passed in 2016, my beloved Cubs randomly turned on and won a World Series. 14:22 Then America's Team randomly turned on that year behind a couple of rookies, Dak and Zeke, and gave me a regular s- gave me some regular season joy. It's the same, but different." Yeah, a little bit different. 14:32 Um, the NBA was great last night, but you know what, uh, the NHL said? Here, uh, h- hold my beer, watch this. 14:38 Jake Hahn here joining us to talk NHL, uh, postseason with us, co-host of The Point, the fantasy hockey show on SiriusXM NHL, @JHahn4, H-A-H-N and the number four. Jake, that was awesome yesterday. Amazing. 14:50 We love holding beers up here i- in Canada, Gil, so that's, uh, that's the perfect phrase for what happened last night. I did catch a little bit of the ending of the NBA game as well. 14:58 And I know I'm here to talk hockey with you, Gil, which I always love to do, but you mentioned those numbers on Iga Swiatek at the French Open coming up as well. 15:05 I'm a huge tennis guy like yourself, so I love to hear those types of numbers. 15:09 And I don't know if there's a more lopsided head-to-head, uh, involving a top player, a player of Iga's caliber against her, than her versus Ostapenko. 15:18 It's one of the craziest things I've seen, where she just can't beat Ostapenko for whatever reason. But I'm, I'm looking forward to some French Open plays, uh, in about a month or so. It's amazing. 15:26 We talked about it a little briefly. It, it's, I don't think there's an equivalent for it in sports. No. And I don't think I've ever seen a difference in pricing like we're seeing right now for the French Open. 15:35 And by the way, here in this tournament, Madrid, if she goes to the round of 16, guess who she's playing? Ostapenko, and something's gotta give, 'cause there's the Ostapenko-Iga thing. 15:45 Iga never loses early, although round of 16 there's been a couple, uh, through the years. And, uh, it- We'll see. We'll see. Tennis is, uh, gonna be fantastic here as, as the clay court season runs up to the French. 15:56 What was the greatest last night? Uh, Ovechkin and the Caps beating the Canadiens 3-2. Ovechkin scores the first and the game-winner in overtime. He had never, with everything he's done, right? 16:06 Stanley Cup in 2018, three Hart Trophies, obviously famously breaking, uh, Gretzky's goal record this year. He'd never had a postseason overtime, uh, goal, and he does last night. There's that. 16:17 He also assisted on the one in the middle. Caps win. Then, of course, there was, uh, the Jets get it done. They go two-nothing up in their series over the Blues with a 2-1 win. 16:26 The Stars in a great game with the Avalanche, topsy-turvy. They end up winning 4-3 in overtime to even up that series. And then the Oilers, maybe the greatest of them all. 16:35 Zach, uh, the, the Oilers are down four to nothing, then they're down 5-2. They get it to 5-3 within, you know, was it 2:04 left? Zach Hyman scores. Leflet, by the way, assisted by, uh, McDavid. 16:45 McDavid scores then with 1:28 left to tie it up, and then you think it's going to overtime, and Philip Danault scores for the Kings, and they win it 6-5. I mean, what was the best of that bunch? 16:56 Man, hard to pick one when you list it like that. I mean, that was, that was the perfect night of playoff hockey, and that was our first full slate. 17:02 It was a bit of a soft launch over the weekend, two on Saturday, three on Sunday that were all spread out, but that was your classic first round. Too early, too late, and it did not disappoint. 17:11 All four games decided by one goal, Gil. So, uh, that's what we like to see this time of the year. A couple overtimes. Got our first ta- uh, taste of, of playoff hockey overtime. 17:20 Great to see Ovechkin score that goal, especially after the season that he had as well. If I were to pick one in terms of quality of game, though, I do think it's Colorado-Dallas. I mean, I watched that whole game. 17:30 Just an electric pace from both teams, and that is-- I can't understate how huge of a win that is for the Dallas Stars. 17:35 They came in as underdogs in this series, even though they're the higher seed and the team with home ice advantage, dealing with some injuries, and we know how great the Colorado Avalanche are. 17:44 So that was just a massive win for them. You go down, you drop both your home games going back to Colorado, you're basically cooked. 17:49 Like, I, I would never rule a team out, but the series basically would've been over at that point. So that overtime goal, just massive for Dallas. And I can't believe LA let that one get away. 17:58 Uh, ultimately, they did get away with it, and Danault gets a bit of a flutter puck goal to win the game, uh, late, and they escape with the win. 18:05 But I, I felt like if LA lost that game, Gil, with the history between them and Edmonton Maybe just go to handshakes. Like, that would've been an impossible loss- [laughs]... 18:13 to come back from, so, so good, good for LA to, to find a way to win that. But man, some concerns, the fact that they, they let Edmonton get back into that game. 18:20 It, it is interesting, 'cause with hockey, and I'll say this for the billionth time for those who listen to this show for many years, they, they know this, it's, you know, in the NBA, um, uh, 80% roughly of, of, uh, favorites manifest and they get through to the next round. 18:34 Obviously, the first round in the NBA playoffs skews that tremendously. 18:38 For the same percentage of favorites to get through in the NHL, because of the randomness of the sport, this is from stats by Lopez, you'd have to play a best of 51. Hmm. 18:47 So anything that we describe as a must-win situation in, in hockey, uh, is typically overblown, but it, it did feel like in the Stars series that that might not have been. A- and we are seeing chalk reign supreme so far. 19:00 It's a very small sample size. We're three nights into this thing, nine games into this thing, but we finally had our first underdog win last night, and it took overtime. 19:09 It took deep into the first overtime, almost two overtimes for Dallas to beat Colorado, and Dallas is the home team, so not like they're a heavy underdog, uh, in that series or in that game last night. 19:18 So it has been chalk heavy so far, Gil. 19:21 Not to say we won't see our, our fair share of upsets, but, you know, at least, you know, trying to overreact a little bit to these first couple nights, you're thinking, "Okay, do, do we maybe have a few, a couple sweeps or five-game series, uh, in the National Hockey League?" 19:33 Because it does seem like the, the favorites so far are taking care of business in the NHL. When you were on with us last week, you liked the Lightning in the series. Yeah. 19:41 Are you taking them in game one tonight against the Panthers? Yeah, Ki- Kings and Lightning were my two series plays when I came on with you last week. 19:48 The Kings made me sweat out that game one a little bit, uh, last night, but ultimately they do get it done, and I'm, I'm gonna double down on the Lightning. I'm always careful with this, right, Gil? 19:56 If you make a series play, you bet the team at game one a- at the same price. You know, maybe you wanna go half unit play, however you decide to do it. Uh, but I am gonna take the Lightning. 20:04 I think it's a good price on home ice. These teams have had a lot of time off. We've had to wait a long way to see this series, and I would rank this one out of one in terms of entertainment. 20:13 It, also in terms of a team, I think, I think this will be the most difficult matchup through the Eastern Conference side for either team. Whoever wins, I think it will open up the path for them. 20:22 So, hey, if you like a team from this side, maybe you wanna go to a, an Eastern Conference future, a Stanley Cup future. But I, I like the Lightning to set the tone here in game one. 20:30 I just think they come in with better form. Maybe the time off stopped that form a little bit, but I, I'm gonna trust the Lightning to, to find a way at, you know, just over a pick'em price here on home ice. 20:39 Yeah, this is one of four games tonight in the NHL. That's the only one that is a game one. The others are all game twos, uh, as the road teams look to, uh, even up the respective series. 20:48 It begins tonight, uh, the game twos do anyway, and the whole slate begins with a face-off, Devils and Hurricanes. Canes up, uh, one-nothing in that series. You have a creative way to bet this one. 21:00 Well, we, this was probably the most lopsided game visually that we've seen so far over the weekend. 21:06 Just a completely dominant effort from the Carolina Hurricanes to, to run away with game one against the New Jersey Devils, and I think New Jersey was talked about the least of any teams coming in, missing their best player in Jack Hughes. 21:17 A lot of people just writing them off to the point where I kind of forgot they were even in the playoffs. And, uh, watching game one, uh, backed up, I think, some of those narratives. 21:25 So New Jersey's gonna have to make some adjustments because Carolina just swarmed them. They wouldn't let them touch the puck, and they peppered Jacob Markstrom, and I think that's the area that I want to attack. 21:34 I, I was on this in, in game one, and it flew over, Jacob Markstrom over on saves. Whatever number you can grab. I grabbed 25 and a half last night. I think it's moved up to 26 and a half now. 21:45 I'd expect it to go up even more before game time. 21:47 I just think Carolina's gonna continue with this game plan of peppering the goaltender, taking shots from everywhere, and I do think Markstrom's good enough to, to make some saves to, to go over that total. 21:56 Markstrom over 25 and a half, and you said, uh, up to 26 and a half you would play it? On, 26 and a half. I think I'd even go to 27 and a half if you can get some plus money with it, even minus 105, minus 110. 22:08 Uh, that's a number I'd be comfortable playing. I think the Canes get into the 30 to 35 shot range pretty comfortably in this game. 22:13 All right, and the other two games tonight, uh, the Leafs and the Senators, the, uh, the Golden Knights and the Wild. 22:19 Both the Leafs and the, uh, Golden Knights trying to take two to nothing leads in their respective best of seven series. You are staying away from both of those. 22:26 I, I would lean the over in the Leaf-Senators game after what we saw, uh, in the first game, and I think the Wild have a sneaky chance to make it interesting against Vegas. Hmm. 22:34 Not enough to play the money line, Gil, but maybe a little sprinkle on the plus one and a half for the Wild. Well, let's see if the NHL can top that from last night. That is a tall task. It was awesome. 22:42 Hope that it's as great tonight. Thank you, Jake. Appreciate it. Always great chatting with you, Gil. Let's hope we have a, another fun night tonight. Yes, sir. Jake Hahn, everybody. 22:50 Again, co-host of The Point, the fantasy hockey show on SiriusXM. Baseball, Marc Borchard next right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 23:06 Don't forget to check out sharpplays.com, unmatched transparency with records updated daily. Not to mention some AI in there, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. 23:19 That's sharpplays.com. Well, you know, uh, you ask a question, you get answers, and I've, I've certainly gotten, uh, my share of them here on the old, uh, TV turning on. 23:29 Tristan Paul on Twitter, "Most modern TVs have wake on connection/" and then he gets into some WLAN, I don't know, some, uh, other features here. "More than likely nothing wrong with the TV at all. 23:40 One of the connected devices is either sending out a still in use check over HDMI [laughs] or could be something simple like a bad HDMI connection or cable." 23:48 Um, I'd prefer to think it's my father, quite frankly, but I appreciate the, uh, the technical analysis on that, Tristan. I'm sure you're correct, or are you, if you know what I mean? 23:58 Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Marc Borchard joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @basewinner, basewinner.com. 24:07 I'm laid back, got my mind on my money- [laughs]... and my money on my mind. There he is. No one spits rhymes like he does, and uses baseball metrics to handicap the great game. What's up, man? 24:19 You know- You know what, Gil? Hey, Gil, yesterday was my 55th birthday. Hey, happy birthday. And, uh, I did, I did... You wouldn't know this, this artist too. It was, uh, Jeremih, and he sang a song called Birthday Sex. 24:31 And I always liked that song because it was, it, on the radio it was birthday sh- birthday sh. Like, they couldn't say sex on the radio. 24:39 So I changed it to birthday bets, and I did that towards the end of my show yesterday. I think, I think I did a decent job on it too. All right. This show sounds glorious. Where can people get your Bet US show? 24:49 It is the MLB show, Bet US. Uh, you just search, if you search those two, two words on YouTube, you will get it. And, uh, it's every, uh, every weekday at, uh, 8:00 AM Arizona time. So, you know- Arizona time. 25:04 Yeah, because, you know, we're on our own time, so like, I don't know what other, other times are. I just know what we do in Arizona. Well. 'Cause I'm a cowboy. Okay, easy. Wait, so wait a minute now. 25:13 What, did you do anything special for your 55th birthday, besides change it to baseball bets? I did, did nothing. Hmm. You know? No, I worked out with my, I have a long jump coach 'cause I'm involved in master's track. 25:23 So I, I was able to see him and that was fun. And then I ate junk food. So I had, had some- Wait, you, wait, hold on. I was about to move on to baseball. You have a long jump coach? 25:32 Yeah, the guy's a guy, he's really cool. He's from Zimbabwe. He's an international ranked triple jumper. And I met him on the track running there, and he, he works with me. So it's, it's fun. 25:41 I always look forward to working with him. His name's Shingai. He's a good guy. What, what made you decide to, like, train to do a long jump, though? Well, because I've always... 25:50 Okay, so I've always run master's track, and I just used to do the sprints. And I, I had to pay for an event, and it was a stupid thing. 25:57 It was only 50 bucks, but I was like, "If, if you did a, a field event, you s- you pay the same amount." And I said, "Well, you know what? I wanna get my money's worth." And I saw this guy jumping. 26:05 I'm like, "Hey," and I knew, I know long jumping takes a little bit of speed, which I still have a little bit for, for a 55-year-old. And I said, "Hey, can you teach me to jump?" And, and it just started from there, Gil. 26:15 You're a regular Bob Beamon, or I guess it's Michael Powell now. Uh, long jump record. No, you're right. I mean, it's not Michael, [laughs] it's not Michael Powell. There's a, there's a, uh, guy from Greece. 26:24 He's, he's, he's the, he's the world leader right now. Is that right? Somebody broke Mike Powell's record? I had no idea. Had no idea. Um, all right, Mark, let's start. We, we usually end with your picks. 26:34 Let's start with your picks. What do you got today? Well, you know, Gil, I'm gonna go with the base winner parlay here. Uh, Minnesota and Arizona. 26:41 There's two teams that I really like, and I still like them both to win the division. [laughs] So people can hate me for that. But, uh, today I think, uh, you know, Fat is a, is a better pitcher. 26:52 You, you look at his pitching plus numbers, 85 percentile. A- and Littell is 57 percentile, and that kind of carries over to their strikeout percentages as well. And this is a last 17 game median. 27:06 And, and Fat's up there, uh, at 25%, uh, 82nd percentile. The 25% is the, is the actual K percentage. And then Littell, 20.5 raw K percentage, uh, 42nd percentile. So I think we get a pitching advantage. 27:20 Uh, for me, the hitting, even with Marte, this is really interesting. Even with, uh, Ketel Marte out of the lineup, they're sixth in baseball, these Diamondbacks are, Gil. 27:29 And then I have their, their bullpen ranked number one, and we're still kind of touching, w- waiting to see what happens with, uh, with A.J. Puck's injury. 27:38 You know, that's one thing that, uh, has kind of been prevalent in that NL West. Uh, Arraez went down with a concussion. Uh, they're missing about, I think they're missing three guys. Uh, uh, Merrill's out of the lineup. 27:49 Cronenworth's out of the lineup. Uh, Jackson, Jackson Lockridge, I think. Or Brendan Lockridge. Everybody's named Jackson, and I always forget. But Lockridge and, and Hayward are all out, uh, for the Padres. 28:00 And, and of course Marte for the D-Backs. They're, I think their best player personally. I think he's even a, a little bit better than Carroll, slightly by my numbers. 28:08 And, uh, and then Puck with elbow inflammation, you kind of, kind of always worry about that, Gil. All right. So the play is the Diamondbacks today, yes? It's Minnesota-Arizona parlay. Uh, I, I, I put it up plus 141. 28:21 I think it's still on the market at, uh, plus 133. I think that's, that's a good opportunity. Minnesota. Yeah, yep. Minnesota-Arizona parlay. Boy, the, boy, the Twins are just dreadful. 28:30 I don't know what has happened to this team, uh, here out of the gates. Uh, by the way, Michael Powell still holds the long jump record, Mark. What the heck are you talking about? 8.95 meters. I know. I, I knew that. 28:40 I didn't want to correct you on air. I, I must have mis- mis- misspoke. Oh, okay. 28:43 But, uh, no, they, they have a, the, the leader, the guy's the, the, the leader right now, the world leader, or one of the world leaders is a, is a guy from Greece. I see. 28:51 And he's this big, tall, lanky guy, and he's ki- he really is. He's good. All right. We're leaving it with the Twins and the Diamondbacks, uh, parlay? That's your play of the day? Is that what we're leaving with? 28:57 You know, I'm gonna play the, I'm gonna play, 'cause I know everybody gets pissed when I only give out a parlay, Gil. So I gotta give us- We're not the parlay show, Mark. You gotta give us a straight. What do you got? 29:05 Okay, I'll give you a straight. I'm gonna go with the Padres here. Uh, yesterday they were at plus 102. I don't know where they are in the market right now. 29:12 Even with those guys out of the lineup, I have them, uh, favored at minus 148. You know, they put Iglesias into the lineup. That guy's pretty decent. He was, like, over 800 OPS last year. 29:23 Uh, they've got a couple other guys that aren't so good, but what's, what's really stands out to me is Pavetta, and he's been pretty good. 29:30 I have him ranked, uh, 12th i- in the base winner ratings out of 150, uh, pitchers. And what's, what's even more, [smacks lips] uh, I, I think important is his strikeout percentage is 30.9% in the 97th percentile. 29:45 I think we get a pretty good, good opportunity. Uh, you, you look at Flaherty, you look at his stuff plus, it's kind of middle of the road, uh, 47th percentile, and Pavetta's stuff is in the 81st percentile. 29:56 And so even with, with the, the, the, the subtractions, if you will, from that Padres lineup, I have them 18th in baseball on, on this particular day, and I've got, uh, the, the Tigers 20th. 30:08 So y- you put all that in the mixer, uh, and I think that this is a good opportunity. Did get the Padres right around, uh, even money. Okay, there you go. You fulfilled your duties, sir, with that. 30:18 Um, you, you do a great job of, of tracking everything Major League Baseball wise. I'm curious, I'll just put you on the spot here. Um, you and I, we do quarterly shows. 30:27 We're not, uh, we're just barely over halfway to the first quarterly show, the Q, uh, Q1 derivative show. 30:33 I'm curious what starting pitchers you have observed, or at least by your numbers, forget about your observation, just by, by the numbers, who you're like, "Okay, this, this might be a, a pitcher that I would consider a Cy Young bet on. 30:48 They are overperforming where I thought they might be"? 30:52 I think Logan Gilbert, I don't know what the odds on him, but he's number one Basewinner ERA, and I don't-- I think that what's interesting for me, 'cause I took a look at him the other day, and I do standard deviation of last 17 games, uh, with the Basewinner ERA number, and he was really consistent. 31:09 So you've got this guy, he's number one in baseball, and the standard deviation is super low, so he's ve- been very consistent. Of course, he pitches in Seattle, which is gonna help him, Gil. 31:19 Uh, Logan Gilbert right now for Cy Young. Let me see. Boop, boop, boop. Nine to one. Nine to one. Yeah. So he's the fourth short shot. 31:28 Uh, Gerrit Crochet, Tarik Skubal, and Max Freed, the only three that are shorter in the American League. Okay, so, so this is Basewinner ERA one to three. Interesting. 31:38 And, and most of these guys, some of th- I think a couple guys have 20 innings pitched, but, uh, uh, you know, still small sample size. Logan Gilbert, 1.81. Ragans, no regrets with Ragans, uh, 2.20. 31:52 And then Jack Leiter, although it's only two games, he's 2.38. So for what it's worth, those are the American League guys, Gil. You can answer this either way. You can answer it both ways. 32:01 Give me the team right now that in the standings is way underperforming where they ought to be based on your expected standings, 'cause I know you do that as well. 32:10 Give me the team that is overperforming by the most of where they should be. The team that is underperforming in the standard standings is the Rays, believe it or not. 32:20 You know, they're nine and 13 in the, if you look at the bo- the, the daily paper, if you will, Gil. But based on the weighted runs created plus xFIP- and defensive runs saved, they should be 15 and six, roughly. Wow. 32:34 So, you know, you, you-- And if you look at that xFIP-, it's-- And I'm playing against them today because I don't know if the, the sample size is big enough, but they're best in baseball, xFIP-. 32:43 That's collectively, starters and relievers. And then if you look at the, uh, the weighted runs created plus, and that's a, a number that I think everybody should use. It's an easy number to work with. 32:53 They are fourth in baseball, Gil. So, uh, that's pretty interesting. And defensive runs saved. 32:59 And, uh, this is more, I think, descriptive than predictive, but nevertheless, it's, it's a good number to use in expected wins. They are best in baseball, tied with the Yankees. 33:07 So you've, you've got all the components there that, that they've really done well, and yet they're sitting in the standings at nine and 13. I- So that's an interesting one, Gil. 33:14 I love the, the Basewinner expected standings 'cause it gives us an opportunity in the daily numbers to perhaps exploit some value there, um, if, if a team is better or worse than they actually seem to be to the general public right now. 33:27 Is there one to the opposite real quick? Is there somebody overperforming? I ask very cautiously. Real, real fast. Padres, s- well, I bet under data, 16 and seven in the standard, and they should be 13 and 10 roughly. 33:39 Okay. So I mean, decent numbers. I mean, they should be 13 and 10, but, you know, there you go. You passed the test. You did not say Giants. You're a winner. Thank you so much, Mark. Thanks, Gil. My pleasure. 33:49 Mark Borchardt, the best in the game at Basewinner. Coming back, Nick Whelan, NFL draft and NBA next. 33:55 [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 34:11 Take your betting to the next level with First Bet, whether it's Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, or the road to the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. First Bet puts the action at your fingertips. Sign up now at firstbet.com. 34:20 That's the number one S-T bet.com, and use promo code VSiN200 to score a 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200. Don't miss out. Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. It's Gil Alexander. 34:34 Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. By the way, Kelly Bidlin's still on vacation. He is in, uh, Turks and Caicos. He'll be back on, uh, I don't even think it's Monday. I think he'll be back on Tuesday of next week. 34:43 Wyatt doing a bang-up job, uh, while, uh, Kelly's gone, or as, uh, we now call him, Wyland, doing a fantastic job. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. 34:51 Chris Patrick, "Hard Rock Bet Florida down last night from 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM for maintenance. Are you kidding me? During NBA and NHL playoffs? Never seen that in 30 years. Craziness, I say." 35:04 Yeah, 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM during the NBA and NHL playoffs is not good. At least Bookmaker had the decency to do it, uh, on the overnight. 35:11 3JackH3131, "Gil, your TV conundrum is likely your mom checking in saying, 'Gibby, why do you watch all these sports? Go outside. Go play tennis with your friends Todd and Steve.' Or it's aliens. 35:21 Heard they frequent Vegas." [laughs] Yes, they do. Could be that as well. Cspackler, "You don't have a long jump coach?" [laughs] I still can't get over the image of Mark Borchardt, Basewinner, long jumping. 35:34 Um, JoeC714, "I don't believe in this stuff either, but sometimes it can't be explained. Middle of the night, wife was on the way to the hospital since her uncle was about to pass away. 35:43 Phone flashlight turns on time of death before she knew he passed away. I have it on video." Man, some paranormal stuff sometimes. 35:53 Uh, NewJerseyNewYorkGV, "The segment with Basewinner rivals some of the more unhinged segments with Wishner or Weingarten." Quote, "Wait, you have a long jump coach?" 36:01 [laughs] Um, versus, "I'm thinking of buying a house next to Lambeau and turning it into a bed and breakfast," which is something that Jason said back in the day. And Jason Stark, "Just follow Basewinner on X, Gil. 36:12 He reposted, uh, his Bet US show every day once it wraps up. It's been very profitable for me. I'm always asking Mark to add a Saturday or Sunday episode." And of course, apparently he, uh, he raps as well. 36:23 Bruce Dobegen, "In my TV days, my critics used to say that their TV turned off when I came on camera. Eerie. Ba-dum-bum." Thank you, Bruce, for that. Sorry about the critics. Uh, Nick Whelan kind enough to join us. 36:34 He not only, by the way, Nick Whelan is a Rotowire senior analyst, but of course, for our purposes, he is the co-host of Prop Points each and every weekday here that he does with, uh, Craig Erickson on the network on VSiN. 36:46 He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at Whelan, W-H-A, the number one, E-N. Replacing the L with the one. How you doing, man? How's it going? Oh, I'm great, man. 36:58 I'm great. Always good to, to be on the show. You know, I've been jealous from afar seeing Kelly just, you know, flexing on Twitter and Instagram. 37:06 The guy's just, you know, laid up at the beach, hanging out in Turks and Caicos. Uh, but this is one of my favorite sports weeks of the year. 37:12 Not only do we have round one of the NBA playoffs, but of course, the NFL draft coming up. I'm actually heading out to Vegas tomorrow night, so I'll be there for draft weekend. Gonna be a lot of fun. 37:21 By the way, I said Craig Erickson, who was a former ballplayer. Yes I meant Jeff Erickson, of course, for goodness' sake. I almost said Michael Erickson, who was someone I used to work for. [laughs] A lot of Erickson's. 37:29 Pardon me, uh, Jeff, I apologize. Yeah. All right, let's start with, let's get the NFL draft stuff out of the way. I'm gonna talk to Drew about this, uh, here- Mm... 37:36 momentarily, and then we're gonna do a podcast about it. But you, in a, in a draft that is a little squirrely, a little janky, you do like a couple props. 37:45 I, I think squirrely and janky are the perfect adjectives for this draft. And I think it's only going to get squirrelier and jankier. 37:51 We just got a report about 25 minutes ago that now both the Browns and the Giants are fielding calls to potentially move out of their picks inside the top five. 38:00 So, you know, it kind of felt like things were starting to solidify over the last couple of weeks. We'll see if that ends up coming to fruition. 38:06 But yeah, in terms of some props that I'm keeping an eye on, you know, I'm, I'm buying in on the Saints' interest in Jaxson Dart. Uh, the, the term hot and heavy for Jaxson Dart was thrown around yesterday. 38:16 I don't think the Saints are all that interested in Shedeur Sanders. They were the betting favorite to take Shedeur for weeks, and that has now shifted dramatically at the DK Sportsbook. 38:25 I, I'm looking at Jaxson Dart plus 450 to be a top 10 pick. Now, his draft pick over under is 24 and a half. It's almost even both ways, so this is by no means a lock. 38:34 You know, maybe this is all an elaborate smokescreen by the Saints. 38:37 It's possible, of course, that they could trade back or, you know, they make a different pick at nine, they trade into the, the latter half of the first round. 38:43 But if the Saints are, are that in on Jaxson Dart, I don't really see them taking the chance of trading back or saying, "Oh, well, we'll trade back up into 24, and then we'll get him there." 38:52 There's just too much risk involved if that's the guy that you want to lead your franchise, uh, going forward. So I, I like Jaxson Dart plus 450 to be a top 10 pick, looking at the Saints, uh, taking him at number nine. 39:04 And then the other one that I'm looking at is TreVeyon Henderson, the running back from Ohio State, plus 170 to go in the first round. Uh, put that in yesterday. It's now down to plus 140 at the DK Sportsbook. 39:14 Doesn't necessarily mesh with the over under two and a half running backs to go in round one. The over is still plus 220 there, so maybe that's a way you could pick up some value. 39:23 You have Ashton Jeanty, you have Amarian Hampton, who's minus 1600 to go in round one. But to me, Gill, you look at those teams in the 22 to 32 range, and there are plenty of potential landing spots. 39:33 You know, good teams that are looking for that home run hitter piece. You know, Denver even at 20 could be in play. You look at Minnesota at 24, Houston at 25. Those are two teams with aging running backs. 39:44 They could be looking for a succession plan. Your Washington Commanders at 29, KC at 31. 39:50 I'm not sure we would see a team necessarily trade back into round one to draft a running back, but I think there are four or five real options for Henderson, uh, in those final 12 picks. 39:59 Y- y- first of all, who knows what happens in the final 12 of the first round. I think in any draft we would say that. The quarterback thing is so interesting. 40:06 I know there's a lot of people who heard, you know, heard you say Jaxson Dart plus 450, top 10, and probably scoffed at that. I just, you know, and I'm hearing a lot of- Yeah... 40:13 you know, Todd McShay came on and, and, uh, his latest podcast, he's like, "Look, I think it's gonna be under two and a half quarterbacks in the first round." I'm... 40:21 Listen, I don't know if I'm making the same bet you are on Dart, but I get the, the, the attitude about it or at least the, uh, the thought on it, because there, there's so much, we have to block out so much noise in sports betting, and when it comes to a draft, I think it's particularly difficult to block out a whole bunch of noise. 40:36 And whenever I hear anything that is anti-quarterback first round stuff, I'm always skeptical because we just... It's easy for us to pontificate about that before the actual event takes place. 40:48 But Thursday night, man, you know these teams, right? A lot of them who aren't even talking right now are quarterback, uh, needy, and they're coveting one. Like Shedeur, some people have Shedeur leaving the first round. 41:02 I don't know. I think a team will probably, like at, who knows? Maybe somebody will, will, in the eight, you know, in the teens or in the 20s will be like, "He's still available? We gotta get him." Yeah. 41:12 So I, I just think, I just think we have to guard against that, and so I'm, I'm with you on the general sentiment. Um, let's go to the NBA. Great NBA night last night. 41:20 Playoffs have been, uh, e- we hope that's a step up from, uh, the general first game ones or that round of game ones, where only the Clippers-Nuggets game was competitive at the end, but there were some interesting, uh, finishes, certainly Golden State and the Rockets. 41:33 Uh, Pistons-Knicks game one was interesting. Obviously, that series knotted up. Tonight, we have three game twos, Bucs-Pacers, where Dame Lillard has now been, uh, sort of upgraded to the old questionable category. 41:46 Pis- uh, Pacers remain a, uh, a five and a half point favorite. Grizzlies-Thunder, this is one I've already bet. Thunder, 14 and a half point favorites. I'm laying it again with the Thunder. 41:55 And then the T-Wolves and the Lakers, where the Lakers in the proverbial, it's not a literal must win, but it is a figurative must win. Where are your plays tonight? 42:05 Yeah, I'll try to run through as many as I can here, Gill. I got some props for each of these games. We'll start with Bucs-Pacers. 42:10 That number's actually down to four now in favor of Indiana, so I think there is some momentum behind the scenes that perhaps we do see Damian Lillard tonight. So we got props up for Lillard. 42:18 His points prop currently sitting at 19 and a half, so that kind of tells you the expectation. If he does play, is he going to see 36, 37 minutes? Probably not. 42:26 He hasn't played in over a month at this point, so obviously that would be a plus for Milwaukee, but not necessarily something where you say, "Okay, we're just plugging in peak Dame Lillard." 42:34 I think there is going to be a ramp-up period for him. You know, in terms of a prop for this game, Andrew Nembhard over 10 and a half points is right, right where my attention went. Minus 125 at DK. 42:44 Went way over this number in game one. He has been a Bucs killer over these last couple of years. Obviously had a great playoff run for the Pacers last year. 42:52 He went over this number in five of six games against Milwaukee in the first round a year ago. Took 13 shots in game one. 42:58 I mean, this Milwaukee team, as currently constructed, has a ton of weaknesses, but perhaps the biggest among those is their lack of perimeter defense at the point of attack, specifically on guards. 43:07 So I, I think you could kind of, y- you could, you could slant your attention to, to limit Tyrese Haliburton. 43:12 You should probably be able to do better against Siakam and Myles Turner, but you have to give something up, and I think Nembhard, uh, is the piece that will continue to be able to exploit this Bucs defense. 43:20 We like the over 10 and a half points there. I'm with you, by the way, on OKC. [laughs] I don't think 14 and a half is enough. 43:26 I know the Grizzlies played a disastrous game in game one, but I, I think OKC could play better. 43:31 SGA went 4 of 13 from the field, one of seven from three, so yeah, you expect a better effort out of Memphis, but I think OKC probably feels the same way. Aaron Wiggins over 10 and a half points is one that I like here. 43:41 You know, he's one of those guys where if this does turn into a blowout, he still tends to play. He's kind of right on the border, uh, in terms of the guys who get pulled from the game. 43:48 I would also look at SGA over six and a half assists at minus 110. Don't love the points prop at 32 and a half, just given the blowout risk. Uh, and Isaiah Hartenstein over three and a half assists is plus money tonight. 44:00 And then real quick on the late game, Luka Dončić over six and a half assists at just one assist in game one. That's a problem. Don't want that to be the script if you're the Lakers. 44:08 He averaged seven and a half assists over his previous 15 games. Now, take a look at Jaden McDaniels, uh, one of the heroes for Minnesota in game one, over five and a half boards. 44:17 He's had nine, eight, and nine rebounds in his last three games against the Lakers. Should continue to see a ton of minutes. They need his defense. Nicely done, Nick. We got it in. Appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. 44:28 You bet, man. Anytime. Nick Whelan, once again, co-host with Jeff Erickson of Prop Points each and every Monday through Friday, weekdays right here at the network, 2:00 to 3:00 Eastern. 44:37 2:00 to 3:00 Eastern, 11 to noon Pacific right here at VSiN. Coming back, Drew Dincic, tennis, NBA, the NFL draft. It's all next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
