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Apr 22, 2025
A Number’s Game | April 22, 2025 | Hour 2
A Number’s Game | April 22, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:49
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. It's Gil Alexander. Kelly Bilin on vacation. Uh, he's in Turks and Caicos chilling. Uh, Wyland, Wyland Tomchek in for him this week.
0:24
His name is Wyatt, but we're gonna call him Wyland based on that tweet. Uh, still to come this hour, uh, we will, uh, we will talk multiple things, including, uh, some tennis.
0:33
Uh, look, take a, take a brief look at, uh, Madrid.
0:36
And, uh, Matt Brown, who is the co-host, uh, today of Money Moves with the lovely Stormy Bonatoni, he will come in a little earlier and talk NFL draft with us, what he thinks he knows.
0:48
Uh, and don't forget, uh, after Money Moves, this will be live on our YouTube channel.
0:54
So, uh, Drew Dincic, Luke Swain, known as Vegas Refund, and I will do a, uh, we'll do an NFL draft podcast, and we'll do that on the VSiN YouTube channel. You'll click on live.
1:07
We will be there at 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific to break down what we think we know, what we have bets on anyway, in the 2025 NFL draft, the 2025 NFL draft, which is a little more than 48 hours away.
1:19
And to join us now to talk about it briefly is the aforementioned Drew Dincic, the co-host of not one, but two podcasts, uh, The Deep Dive with Andy Molator. Andy was on the show yesterday.
1:29
And of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge. Not only do, does he and Andy do the, uh, Deep Dive, but they do the daily Deep Dive as well now. Drew joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, man?
1:40
I'm doing great. Uh, got to- [laughs]... got to spend some time reminiscing about the great Kawhi Leonard this morning- Ah... and some, uh, some bets of yesteryear.
1:48
You remember, you remember back in, uh, you know, 600 years ago in 2019 when he won the title with the Raptors? I do. Uh, it was pre-pandemic, so there's a lot of people have forgotten that that time existed.
1:58
But, uh, um, yeah, that was, uh, it was so amazing and reminiscent to see him perform at that level again. And, uh, gosh, gosh, we are, we are, we are lucky to, to be getting it. I'm so, so, so grateful.
2:10
We got so, such 2019 Raptors vibes from him last night. Uh, the 39-point performance on 15 of 19 shooting, where literally- [sighs]... I barely remember the, the misses at all.
2:24
Um, not to mention that he, uh, he filled out the, uh, the box score pretty well beyond that. What'd he have? Uh, three rebounds, five assists, two steals as well.
2:32
Um, the second quarter buzzer beater, by the way, which ends up being the difference of the game, uh, the three-point margin.
2:39
Let me just, was, was 2019 also, the year that they won it, was that also the year with the game seven against the Sixers where he had the shot to win it, and it bounced on the rim in a geometrically impossible fashion to get- [laughs]...
2:54
win the basket? Was that the same year? That was the one, yeah. Yeah. The magnets, uh, how do they work? [laughs] No,
3:02
the, uh, no, the, uh, the, uh, Kawhi's tenure in, in, uh, in Toronto was, uh, it was a, it was a fleeting moment. Um, and yet it was extremely memorable.
3:12
That was one of the most, uh, just sort of fun playoff runs we've had, and the market just never ever believed that that team was as good as they were in the East, and the market never believed that the, that the Warriors were gonna have some trouble finding offense after they lost Klay Thompson [laughs] and Kevin Durant.
3:30
Surprise. So that was- Yeah. [laughs] Like- Amazing... that one, that's still, like, I don't know.
3:34
I, I, I questioned- I, you know, I'm al- always a true believer in the market and what the market's telling you, and that, you know, you're not smarter than the collective wisdom of the market, and then that series happens, and you're just like, "Maybe, maybe it's not always right."
3:49
Um, but, uh, yeah, that, the 2019 playoffs in the NBA were extremely fun and special, and, uh, a lot of good memories of Kawhi.
3:55
And the fact that we even get to see him again is, feels impossible because the last handful of years with him going out with the injuries he's had and just his, you know, general, um, you know, la- lack of those moments, uh, it's, it's been a long time coming.
4:10
The Clippers obviously, uh, nodding up the series against the Nuggets last night, one game a piece as they head back to, uh, LA for game three, now with home court.
4:19
Um, what, before we get to your thoughts on tonight's trio of games- Mm... what in this first spate of playoff games has in any way shaken what you thought going into them? Uh, well, the totals.
4:33
[laughs] Um, this is, uh, this is kind of a, sort of a macro thought that I haven't really fleshed out in detail, so happy to kinda do it here, uh, on the, on the fly. But, um- Please...
4:46
you, you know, you, there's a, there is a, uh, a general pressure on points in the playoffs. Like, this is not news. Um, but the fact that this has been so immediate, uh, in these series has been a little bit surprising.
5:01
Uh, usually you can prey on a little bit of an over-adjustment in terms of the pace going down, in terms of offensive efficiency going down, um, you know, the, the, early in the series.
5:11
And then later in the series, it's never properly accounted for in the other direction.
5:16
And yet here we are where, you know, we have these totals that are getting bet down four and five points, and then the to- the actual final score isn't even sniffing it.
5:25
In some cases, you know, you have Clippers, uh, Nuggets was just a spectacular game one. Goes to overtime, they still don't make the total, right?
5:34
Like, this is a, a very, um, uh, you know, kind of s- clear departure from years past where these, these early games are just extremely slow and extremely, um, like, grinded out.
5:46
And I think I have to just give credit to probably the analytics teams. The analytics are being very carefully, uh, you know, carried out, um, by these teams in terms of, I think, scouting.
6:00
Uh, because I- A lot of what you see in the regular season as far as like, ah, these sets really worked well for them. This, you know, wh- when they needed a bucket, they went to these plays.
6:09
Like, all of that stuff already seems like it's been shut off in a lot of these series.
6:13
So I think that the advanced scouting and the preparation that the teams are doing in terms of, uh, kind of having answers for their opponents, um, it's, it's just, it's more present, it's more obvious, and it's earlier than I have ever seen it before.
6:27
And, uh, you know, so whereas in a normal kind of y- 10 years ago, five years ago, the playoff series arc would be like, you know, game one, game two, they're feeling each other out. Like, plan A is usually working.
6:40
Team, team that loses game one adjusts the team that wins game one, plan A, and then they have some surprises.
6:46
Like, all of that has been just broadly accelerated to where it's happening in, you know, in game one, in between quarter one and quarter two, and you're just like, "Wow, okay.
6:57
Uh, I guess this is, this is just the new world where, you know, totals need to start in the teens." Um, and, uh, in some cases in the, in the, in the 190s. I, I, I, like,
7:08
I, I had a, a, a very, very sharp player [laughs] that I had a conversation with today who was like, "199 seem a little high for you." [laughs] Orlando, Boston. And I was like- Wow... yeah, I guess.
7:19
But, like, you know, if you're making a fair, and you're using any type of regular season numbers, any type of player
7:26
ratings that are coming from the regular season, you just need to just have a specific button where you are kind of pressing down on pace, pressing down on efficiency. It's taking teams longer to get into sets.
7:35
Their sets aren't as succ- successful because their oppo- you know, their opponents are just more well prepared it feels like.
7:41
And I think, uh, this is just sort of the evolution of analytics affecting basketball, and it, uh, it's making for fun, uh, you know, for fun
7:50
general defensive series, and hopefully the fans are, are appreciating it as well. But, uh, uh, my goodness, these unders are cooking.
7:58
Well, we'll find out momentarily if that means Drew is blanketing some unders- [laughs]... or he's playing any unders. Uh, let's start, let's start with the first one tonight. Pacers-Bucks.
8:06
Dame- Damian Lillard now telling reporters, Drew, that he is a go tonight for game two. Hmm. He is telling reporters- Awesome... that he is a go. Um, I don't think the line has moved any, uh, quite frankly.
8:18
Pacers four and a half point favorites here. Total 229. Is that too high? Uh, I'm surprised by the Dame Lillard news.
8:27
Um, basically once he got green lit that he was gonna be back for the series, I thought it was pretty obvious that, like, he was gonna be a full participant come game three.
8:37
So maybe he is available tonight, but we're not gonna see, you know, a full complement of minutes from him, and then, you know, this series t- This according, by the way, not, not to interrupt, this according to- Yeah, go ahead...
8:46
Eric Nemuth, Milwaukee Bucks beat reporter at The Athletic, that he is reporting. Okay. Yeah. He's, he's a, he's a, he's a, uh, legitimate source, so. Yep. That, uh, that, that changes my opinion a little bit on this.
8:57
I did take the Bucks, uh, plus the points, and I did it through gritted teeth. Uh, their performance in game one was the least inspiring of any of the series that I backed, um, by a lot.
9:08
Like, it w- like the other, like, th- what did I lost the Clippers, I got Warriors, and I got, um, what was the other one? Sorry, the Timberwolves.
9:18
Um, and then I lost the Bucks and, and I felt the worst about the Bucks by far of the teams that I backed series-wise in, after game one.
9:26
Um, but I also felt the most hopeful that, uh, there were enough adjustments that they could, they could certainly put, put together a better performance here in game two.
9:34
I thought the rotations from Doc Rivers were atrocious, uh, in game one.
9:38
I don't understand at all why they went away from what was working so well for them at the re- end of the regular season in terms of putting, uh, guys who can create spacing around Giannis and letting, uh, let- letting Giannis be kind of the, the f- the, the gravity and the focal point of the offense and, and letting the spacing and the guys who can shoot, shoot.
9:56
Um, and I expect that they go back to more of that in game two. Um, this Pacers defense still is somewhat suspect in my opinion.
10:04
And, uh, I think, uh, just in general, this is, uh, this is gonna be a competitive series, and I don't think the Bucks are out of it yet.
10:10
Dame Lillard being back, even giving them something like 18 to 20 minutes would be a huge, huge bump, uh, over the minutes they are getting out of some of these guards right now.
10:19
So, um, that's exciting to me if, if it actually is real. And even if it's not, then I think the likelihood that we see, uh, uh, a kind of a full complement of Lillard minutes in game three is, is likely.
10:30
And, um, this Bucks-Pacers series I think is gonna go the distance. As we speak, a tick down to four now on the Pacers. Hmm. So there you go. Moving on. Okay. Moving on the news right there. So Bucks through- Yes...
10:41
gritted teeth is Dr- [laughs] is Drew's play on, on that game. Uh, anything, uh, game two tonight?
10:47
Uh, I've already said, I said this yesterday on the show, I see no reason why not to lay the points with the Thunder again. You? I have, yeah, no, no exception to that at all.
10:56
Um, my fair n- the, the, uh, Cavs and the Thunder were the, uh, the two, m- I don't wanna say obvious, but the pretty, uh, straightforward chalk, uh, looks on Sunday. And I thought the, um,
11:12
um, yeah, I thought what you got out of Memphis was obviously it was a little bit of a, uh, a fatigued effort. Um, but overall, my, uh, my number right now for the Thunder is 15.2 in this game.
11:24
So if I'm betting anything, I'm laying Thunder. 15.2. So, yes. Very precise. Yeah. Okay. We'll get Drew's thoughts on, uh, Lakers-T-Wolves game two.
11:33
Is he betting that similarly tonight in the, uh, proverbial must-win for the Lakers? Not literal, I know, but you get what I'm saying, figuratively speaking. [laughs] Uh, does he have any tennis thoughts in Madrid?
11:45
And some brief NFL draft thoughts, and they may not be pleasant. Next on a Numbers Game with Beason, the sports betting network.
11:52
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12:33
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12:41
Gil Alexander, along with Drew Dincic, who's kind enough to join us for our second segment, and once again, a little later on today, uh, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific, on the VSiN YouTube page.
12:52
If you go to Live, we will do our NFL draft pod, and, uh, it'll be, uh, it could be brief. We'll see. I don't know. Uh, we'll see what we have, what we think we know. We'll get to that momentarily here on the show.
13:02
Before we move on from the NBA, though, Drew. By the way, Drew, you can follow on Twitter at whale_capper, um, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Lakers-T-Wolves, you said you had the T-Wolves in game one.
13:14
Are you gonna have them in game two? Uh, I have gone a different direction in game two. I like the over here. Ooh. Um, you can kind of, uh, caveat that with, uh, all of the qualifications- [laughs] I was gonna say...
13:27
off the top about- Yeah... defense and everything. Um, but this is absurd. 210 and a half? I mean, this is too much of a move here. Um, the Lakers had just a horrendous night shooting in game one.
13:39
Uh, in average, you know, I c- I, I didn't see anything about the way the Timberwolves were playing defense in that game that said, like, this is sustainably gonna keep the Lakers under 100 points a game.
13:49
Um, and then on the flip side, the Lakers' defense has just got completely exposed, and I don't see easy and obvious ways for them to shore up some of their weaknesses.
13:58
Uh, so the Timberwolves are gonna get in, in or around 110 here, by my numbers, and then I think the Lakers can win, but it's gonna be close.
14:06
If I had to take a side, I would take the points with the, uh, uh, the Timberwolves. But, um, my fair in this one is Lakers minus 2.7, so Lakers minus three, we'll say. Um, and, uh, and my fair total is 220.
14:18
So I like the over, I like the alt-over, uh, and I think, uh, this is an opportunity to see some points. I, I really don't think the Wolves have any answer for Luka Dončić.
14:28
He's gonna get his no matter what, and it's really just a matter of do you get a little bit better production out of some of the role players for the Lakers.
14:35
Um, I doubt we see Jaxson Hayes, which is, you know, it's just a good development for them.
14:40
Uh, probably more Vanderbilt, more, more Dorian Finney-Smith, uh, and, uh, just in general, um, you know, more opportunity for some of the shooters, uh, who are gonna have some space and some, some, uh, some open looks in this one.
14:52
So, um, yeah, maybe I'm, I'm the last person to the party that, uh, is gonna figure out the, what the Wolves are doing defensively against the Lakers is a master class, but, um, you know, whatever the case is, this to me looks like it's an o-offensive type of night, and this looks like an offensive type of series.
15:08
So, uh, the fact that it's been bet down from 217 to 210 and a half- Wow... uh, is, is too much. Yeah, quite the adjustment.
15:16
Okay, uh, real quick before we get to the NFL, anything in Madrid, either men's or ladies' side- Mm-hmm...
15:21
in terms of matches left, if there even, if there are even matches left today, I think there are, uh, or, or just from a futures standpoint?
15:29
Yeah, I, I haven't, uh, played any futures yet, and, uh, I've been looking to kinda just get a sense of the conditions this year. Madrid is a, one of my favorite tournaments.
15:40
It's just a really fun, uh, environment, really fun arena. Um, and it, uh, if you didn't already know, it takes place at a little higher elevation than our opening, um, clay events.
15:52
Uh, you obviously have Monte Carlo, which is at sea level. Uh, you have, uh, Barcelona, which is effectively at sea level, and then you go up to about, uh, 3,000-ish feet for Madrid.
16:01
Uh, so the ball flies a little faster. The clay itself is, uh, a little bit less greasy and slippery as far as European clay goes. Hmm.
16:10
Uh, so the, um, uh, just it, it plays more like a hybrid court than it does a true clay court, which makes things really interesting for, um, you know, for just high-quality, fun tennis this time of year.
16:22
So, um, excited for Madrid. My numbers as currently stands with the, uh, the men's draw is all I ran so far, uh, has Alcaraz as your likely winner, which shouldn't s- surprise anyone.
16:34
Um, I was pretty shocked at the, uh, uh, final in Barcelona where Rune took him down. Um, watching that match and seeing the, the margin between those players was effectively nil was, was eye-opening.
16:46
Uh, not necessarily on the part of Alcaraz not being good, but just Rune being able to find that level was surprising.
16:53
Um, and, uh, you know, I think after that type of win, uh, Rune is on underwhelm watch, um, and, uh, you know, no one else who's really in the top half of the draw inspires me.
17:05
So if you wanna take a long-shot flyer, uh, in,
17:09
uh, in Madrid in general, I'm shopping top half, um, and I'm looking at, uh, some, some true surprises, uh, in terms of, like, um, maybe a Taylor Fritz, maybe an Andrey Rublev, uh, something along those lines.
17:23
Um, I don't think Djokovic is a factor. I don't think Zverev is a factor. Uh, Draper on the bottom half is gonna be a fun matchup potentially against Alcaraz in your semifinal.
17:33
Um, and yeah, I think Alcaraz is your likely winner. But, uh, if you're looking for value in the futures board, I would shop the top half. All right. National Football League.
17:41
By the way, you know who's done on the ladies' side? Hmm. Osaka. I don't think we'll ever-- I, I don't know what's going on with her. She might be done forever. Um- Yeah... all right. I'll leave that hanging.
17:49
[laughs] National Football League. Yeah, I, I'm with you, though. Yeah. It doesn't look good. Doesn't look good. Okay. Let's, let's talk about what we think we know. We think we know the Titans are taking Ward.
17:58
W-we know that the T- the Titans are taking Ward at one, uh, Travis Hunter to the Browns at two, Carter, Abdul Carter to the Giants at three, and Will Campbell to the Patriots at four. Do we think that will happen?
18:13
Yeah, I'd say your fair price on that top four is something like 95%. Okay. After that- There's some black swan stuff, but I don't think any of it's worth betting. I agree with you.
18:24
I'm hearing a lot of random stuff this morning, and I'm not buying- [laughs]... I'm not buying one iota of it. Do we know anything after that? Even, even starting- You know-... at five now with the Jaguars?
18:36
We know a bunch after that, but not sequentially, I don't think. Um, the Jaguars have done a really nice job of spreading disinformation from what I can tell you.
18:47
Uh, the first thing I heard about the Jags, um, in this cycle was the first thing I heard from any team in this cycle, which was here's how the top of their board looks like, and it was Hunter, Carter, Graham.
18:59
And so, you know, you get that information, you assume, "Okay, we got a new regime here.
19:04
Um, maybe they, uh, they let it slip a little bit early who, you know, how, how they had these players rated and, uh, and, you know, that they, that it, uh, this is, this is a known piece of information now.
19:14
And, uh, Hunter and Carter we now know are likely to be gone by the time they pick five, so I guess it's just Graham." Um, and then everything that has happened since then has been either
19:27
other misinformation draftniks like specifically kind of sewing skill position players to them at five. And, um, and to me it feels very smokescreen-y, um, because I think- Yeah, 'cause we've heard, we've heard- Yeah...
19:40
Gentty and McMillan now at five. We've heard everything. Yeah. That's... Uh, who's next? Warren's probably next. Yeah.
19:46
Um, like, like literally like they're kicking the tires on every skill position player in, I feel like, uh, you know, in the, in the broad hope, uh, that, uh, the Saints or the Bears trade up to them, um, or that they flip-flop with the Raiders or maybe the Cowboys come up, right?
20:01
Like, I think they're, they're literally just hoping that there is some team below them who has completely fallen for one of these skill position guys, and moves up to five to get him before either they take him at five or the Raiders take him at six.
20:14
I-- 'cause none of it really makes sense to me. The Jaguars defense was so abominably terrible last year. If they do not take defensive player to help that unit, I, I will be floored.
20:25
Um, and I know that they, you know, we don't really have any track record for this GM, this coach, and what direction that they're gonna try to build in.
20:34
Um, and if they, they really kind of are, you know, if they're intent on getting a skill position guy then good luck to them.
20:42
Um, but, uh, I will be, uh, I'll be truly surprised if they don't end up sticking and picking five and it ends up being Graham still. So, um, I'm on an island now on that with that opinion. Yeah.
20:52
But, uh- It's interesting... you know, I think, I think they're s- they're doing their due diligence in trying to get somebody to trade up to five. They're in a bad spot in this draft.
21:01
Um, taking a defensive tackle is not sexy there. Their fans are gonna be disappointed with this new regime if they take [laughs] if they take a d- a d- tackle. No question.
21:09
Um, but that's what they need, uh, in order to be remotely competitive next year, and I think, uh, that's ultimately where they go after they can't get a trade.
21:16
Um, and the idea that anyone's giving up assets to move up to five in this draft is also crazy. I don't know how many times I've heard it that it is a flat earth from pick four to 40.
21:26
Um, and, you know, if you're, if you really are willing to give up assets to go get Gentty when you could probably have your pick of day two guys who have less wear on their tires and are kind of similarly capable of making an immediate impact to your team, then, um, you know, then, then I'm...
21:43
I, I, I'm just not sure why you'd do that.
21:46
Um, and, you know, the, the market for all of the wide receivers feel soft, so that also, you know, kind of misses me in terms of team prioritizing it to give up assets to go get a guy like McMillan. Um,
21:59
the, uh, the tight end market is also similarly mushy at the top where there's no stratification between the best guys there. And so, you know, I, I'm...
22:08
My guess is that this becomes very chalky, very boring, and I will be watching Nuggets-Clippers on Thursday. [laughs] Wow. And he will be watching Nuggets-Clippers instead.
22:18
[laughs] Um, last thing, 10 seconds or less here. Uh, you still feel like Shedeur might drop to the second round? I have no f- I have no indication that he's got suitors that are gonna trade up to go get him.
22:31
Um, and I think actually, you saw the big move yesterday was under two and a half quarterbacks. Yeah. That thing got absolutely nuked. Um, and- 'Cause that was McShay who said that. McShay said that on his podcast.
22:41
I think that's what started it. Not even just that, but like f- f- find the team that's really gonna go out of their way to take a second guy. I just don't see it. Yeah. So there may be one.
22:48
But you know how first rounds are with quarterbacks. We'll, we'll see. Drew, I'll talk to you in a couple hours. My man. All right. Best of luck, guys. Drew Dinsing, everybody. Coming back on The Numbers Game.
22:56
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23:36
We get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. Primetime Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, I'm sorry, but Kelly Bidlin's future replacement, Wylers," He's calling [laughs] him Wylers now.
23:46
"Had the line of the week yesterday explaining wrestling's heel turn. He slipped in, 'Like when KD signed with the Warriors.'" Yeah, I caught that. I didn't react, but I caught that.
23:55
Could've used, "Like when Deion signed, stole money from the commies also." Prime Time is just- I w- I was o- I was like six years old for that one, so...
24:03
Prime Time is just mad because the Cowboys have not been to a conference championship game since, I believe, the William Howard Taft administration. Does, does that...
24:12
Do you enjoy that now that the Commanders made the, uh, NFC championship game last year? Oh. Like just watching the Cowboys' pain? Oh, it's fantastic. Fantastic That's why Dave Ross doesn't talk to you on the way out.
24:23
[laughs] He just can't take it. [laughs] DGenSouthernGent, "Gil, your reaction to Basewinner telling the viewi- au- the viewing audience about his long jump coach would lead me to believe that you don't have one."
24:33
You are correct. He goes on to say, "With all due respect, Gil, what are you even doing with your time if you're not long jumping at least three times a day?" [laughs] You're absolutely right.
24:43
The only thing more ridiculous that Basewinner could have said is that he has a triple jump coach, which is even more awkward, right?
24:50
Or I don't know, that he was doing the steeplechase or something, like he had a steeplechase coach. I will say every time Mark Borchardt comes on air, something new.
24:58
He, he, it- It is always surprising It, it is a, he's a walking soundbite, and I love it. [laughs] That kid is ridiculous.
25:04
Uh, by the way, the elephant in the room, or the belt in the room here, uh, for those watching us at, uh, vsin.com, uh, the VSIN app, wherever you might be watching us here, YouTube TV, that is a...
25:16
So our, our, our buddy Andre who works here, what is Andre's title? Associate producer. Associate producer, uh, Mr.
25:22
Andre, he, uh, he went to WrestleMania 41, and he purchased this belt, this lovely Vegas Golden Knights championship belt, for lack of a better term, and he paid how much for this?
25:36
Oh, I don't wanna say, 'cause then, then Andre's family's gonna be like, "Where's my birthday money, uh, birthday presents this year?" Okay. It went and went right to- He paid an exorbitant amount for this belt.
25:45
It was less than four figures but above 500 bucks. [laughs] There you go. That's right. It rhymes with fix mundred and nifty. [laughs] Something like that.
25:56
Um, this, so I asked him, you know, he said he was walking around with this. You were at WrestleMania. You said everybody's walking around with these belts.
26:02
It was unbelievable, and some of these belts that people were walking with were as big as them. I'm like, you guys got, your shoulder must just be, like, out of place to carrying this for th- four hours.
26:13
So I asked Andre, I said, "So what do you do? Are you, do you walk ar- like, are you gonna walk around town with this?" He's like, "No," he's just gonna display it in his house.
26:20
But he did let on that if he goes to a Vegas Golden Knights playoff game, he will bring this and wear this. I would do it. I would definitely do that. Yeah. It, I, I mean, this thing is, is legit. It looks so cool.
26:31
I might have to steal this on the way out if Andre can chase me down. Definitely I would, uh, I would have this in my home, and I would walk around with it a couple times.
26:38
I'll never, I'll never understand you millennials or Gen- I am a millennial... Gen Ys or whatever the fuck you guys are. No, no, no, no, no. You can... Look, you can call me- Gen Z... you can call me Wylan.
26:46
You can't say I'm anything but a millennial. I love you people, though, when you listen to the show, just I don't understand the belt stuff.
26:51
Uh, oh, we wanna do this now because, uh, Matt Brown is coming on to talk NFL draft with us before he, uh, does Money Moves with Stormy.
26:57
Uh, we'll do our G Bank Best Bets of the Day right now courtesy of the official bank of VSIN, G Bank, and we have a, uh, bevy of them today on the show. I think I'll start with mine. I'm on the Thunder.
27:07
I talked about this yesterday with Carl Zack. He's on it too, I believe. Uh, Thunder minus 14 and a half. Put that one in early.
27:14
Uh, by the way, Drew's got a, Drew's in the challenge also, the VSIN, uh, uh, Killer Sports NBA handicapping challenge. He's 0 and 0. I reminded him gently off air, I'm like, "Drew, you gotta put in your picks."
27:25
He goes, "Oh, yeah, I know. I, uh, I wasn't aware of the deadlines every day when you had to put them in." So he's, he's playing now too. Uh, Thunder minus 14 and a half for me.
27:32
And this one, uh, I played last week right after Luke Swain was on with us. I mentioned that I played it.
27:38
Uh, I ran right after, uh, Vegas Refund Luke Swain, who's gonna be on again, the, uh, the Beating the Book NFL Draft Podcast, which will be on our YouTube page live. Click on live at 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific.
27:51
Drew, Luke, and I will do the Beating the Book NFL Draft Podcast. Hope you'll join us for that. But he came on last week.
27:57
He's like, you know, and we talked about this with Andy Molator yesterday, "How can you exploit this draft? In a draft where we know very little, how can you exploit it?" Play teams' positional players.
28:06
And asked for an example last week. Luke came on here. He said Saints to go defensive line/edge plus 650. MGM had a seven to one. I bet it then. I don't know if it's gonna happen, but let me just tell you this.
28:19
If it does, makes my entire draft. Draft is a winner. Jay Kahn on the NHL tonight, not only does he have the Lightning in the series, uh, but he's got the Lightning tonight, uh, in game one.
28:30
And again, he struggled with, uh, you know, if you have a team in a series, Lightning against the Panthers, do you play them in game one too? And the answer for him is yes, he is playing them.
28:39
And then, um, he's on a, a prop in the Devils game. Uh, he is taking, uh, he's playing Jacob Markstrom to have over 25 and a half saves. Uh, Jacob Markstrom to have over 25 and a half saves for the Devils.
28:54
He said that he would play it up to 26 and a half, and then he even allowed 27. But 25 and a half is where he got that. So Jay Kahn with a couple hockey plays tonight. Mark Borchardt in baseball, he's on a, got a parlay.
29:05
Wouldn't be a Mark Borchardt segment without some long jumping and a parlay. He's on the Twins Diamondbacks parlay today. That pays plus 133, and then for a straight bet, he's got the Padres.
29:15
Is he on the Padres, or is he fading the Padres? I thought he said he was on the Padres. Uh, we'll have to check on that. Well, that's, uh, I don't know. Maybe, maybe I misheard that. I'll double-check. All right.
29:24
So we got it as the Padres minus 105, but I'm a little skeptical. Uh, Nick Whelan, Nick Whelan, the, uh, co-host of Prop Points with Jeff Erickson here on the network, he's got a couple NFL draft props.
29:35
TreVeyon Henderson to go first round plus 170, the standout running back from Ohio State, and Jaxson Dart, taking a flyer on Jaxson Dart, the Ole Miss quarterback, to go top 10 plus 450. How about that?
29:49
Um, and again, I sort of get the sentiment, right? Because it's like, "Hey, quarterbacks, you're nothing without them. Will some team go crazy?"
29:58
Uh, and then in the NBA tonight, Andrew Nembhard over 10 and a half points, and Aaron Wiggins, uh, over 10 and a half points. Couple, uh, NBA props from Whelan as well.
30:09
And then, uh, Drew, the aforementioned Drew Dincic, he's on the Bucs tonight plus four and a half.
30:13
That's already ticked down to four on the announcement that Damian Lillard is telling reporters he's a go tonight, and he is going against the grain.
30:20
He thinks the adjustment on the total in the Lakers-Timberwolves game is too dramatic, so he's going over. Lakers-T-Wolves over 210 and a half. I'm inclined to, uh, agree with him on that.
30:30
Do we have Joe Peta checking in today? Yes, sir. We do. Joe Peta is back with some, uh, baseball plays.
30:36
By the way, Joe Peta's record, Joe Peta's record right now, uh, in terms of the baseball plays he's been kind enough to, uh, provide on the Numbers Game this year He is 21 and 20 for plus 0.46 units.
30:50
Oh, the Mendoza Line, we gotta stay above it. He's got four plays today. Uh, he is on the Tigers, the Marlins, the Mariners, and the Mets. Tigers, Marlins, Mariners, and Mets.
31:02
Only the Tigers are a short favorite, everybody else a short dog. So thank you to Joe Peta for, uh, for those plays as well. Uh, do you have any plays, Wyatt? Nothing? Nothing from you? No.
31:11
I will say, uh, on Friday I might, I might get you some, some NASCAR plays. Oh.
31:15
They, uh, they're at Talladega this week, and that's one of the, uh, chaos tracks where everybody really has a good chance to win, where I think the last year at Daytona, which is kind of a similar track, I hit Harrison Burton, who was 80 to 1, which probably my best win ever, and I was dancing in the streets for that one.
31:31
There you go, Wyatt. See? So- Kelly, Kelly provided us golf winners, but you're, he would not have provided us with NASCAR picks, so, so thank you. I think w- Kelly does a lot of...
31:39
This is also a great opportunity to live bet NASCAR as well, uh, the play tracks, 'cause guys will, they'll, they'll go to and from the lead in w- less than a couple laps.
31:47
So I think it, it, it's a really good opportunity to, to jump in and catch on somebody who's probably running 30th at the time. You love NASCAR. You're a, you're a NASCAR rasslin' guy. Yes.
31:57
I love them all, except I need to get into tennis. I will say, since working here, I know a lot more tennis names. Okay. That's good. I know how to spell them a little better. [laughs] That's a start. I appreciate that.
32:06
Uh, best bets brought to you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN. G-Bank upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new G-Bank Visa Signature Card customers.
32:13
First new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
32:20
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32:32
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, Drew and I briefly talked about Madrid. Uh, ATP and WTA tours are, are in their 1,000s in Madrid.
32:43
These are the clay court tournaments that lead up to the French Open, which is in late May. Uh, we still have to play in, uh, Rome, uh, in between now and then, uh, as well, but Madrid is a big one.
32:53
And, uh, on the ladies' side, you have two co-favorites, two co short shots, Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, both at plus 330.
33:02
Swiatek's draw will feature, sh- she, she starts with her second round match, she got a bye in the first round, against Alexandra Eala, who is the young Filipina girl who, uh, beat her in Miami, shockingly so.
33:15
Uh, she starts out, but this obviously on a different surface now, Iga's surface on clay.
33:19
And then if she advances to the round of 16, which she always does, it's literally been, like, 50 tournaments in a row with, I think... Well, there was one exception. I think there was a Wimbledon where she didn't.
33:30
So there was one exception, but that's grass. But, uh, literally she never loses early, so plus 330. I haven't bet it yet, but, uh, let's just say I'm thinking about it today.
33:40
When they repost them, 'cause they're not up right now. Ladies are playing right now in Madrid. We'll come back. Matt Brown, our own Matt Brown, right before Money Moves, kind enough to join us to talk some NFL Draft.
33:50
That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
The NFL Draft is on Thursday. VSiN knows every pick matters. Tune in for two special live shows breaking down every pick from a betting perspective.
34:17
VSiN Primetime: Draft Edition starting at 7:00 PM Eastern, followed by Cashing Out: Draft Edition at 11:00 PM Eastern. Plus, explore our NFL Draft Hub.
34:25
That's our NFL Draft Hub on the VSiN Watch app featuring exclusive analysis, team needs, and insights. Visit vsin.com/draft for full coverage, and stream it all live on the VSiN Watch app. Check it out.
34:38
A couple other administrative stuff, by the way. Again, uh, the Beating the Book NFL Draft pod happening at 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific.
34:46
You can watch us live on the VSiN, uh, on the VSiN YouTube page on the live link. Um, we will do that here, uh, a little later on today. Again, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific.
34:58
And as far as the NBA handicapping challenge that we're doing with Killer Sports, Carl Sachs' brainchild, um, subscribers, jump in on that.
35:08
But you can actually, I believe if you go to vsin.com/challenge, I don't think you even have to be a subscriber to see everybody's picks. I could be mistaken about that. So check that out.
35:19
Again, uh, everybody collectively went nine and one on those picks last night.
35:23
Uh, Money Moves is coming up at the top of the hour with, uh, Stormy Bonatony, of course, Matt Brown joining her today, and Matt has, uh, been kind enough to join us here early to give his NFL Draft thoughts on a draft, sir.
35:35
By the way, hello. How are you? I, I'm well. And yourself? I'm good. Thank you for asking. Looking great. [laughs] Feeling good too. Looking. [laughs] Thank you. Um, okay.
35:43
So, so the broader consensus here, I was just talking to Drew. We feel like, and I'll speak for both of us, we feel like, okay, maybe we know the first four picks, and then after that, I'm not sure if I know anything.
35:56
Mm-hmm. Do you feel similarly or, or you have some solidified thoughts? I'm a little less confident than you guys. I think I know the first three picks, and I think it's Patriots might be open for business at four. Oh.
36:07
Is kind of where I think the draft really begins and could get wonky, because again, d- how much do they really like Campbell over Mimbun or Banks or what, you know, or something like that- Right...
36:17
where, hey, someone comes to him and says like, "Hey, we'll give you this, and, you know, you get a, you get to pick up an extra fourth or something," or whatever.
36:24
That, that, I think that is one of the interesting things about the draft for, for me, Gil, where I think I'm maybe on the other side of what a lot of people think, which is
36:32
I think there might be a lot of movement in this draft, because people are going, "Well, there's not gonna be many trades," because n- there's none of these players that everyone just needs and wants so incredibly badly.
36:41
But if that's the case, would we think then maybe- Oh, it could be. You're right It doesn't cost very much to move around.
36:49
And so let's just say it's more of a I'm sitting at 14 or I'm sitting at 17 and like I just wanna move up to 14. You know, whatever the, the, cost me a fifth, you know, or wh- or whatever it might be.
36:59
I, I think there might be some movement here because I don't think it's gonna be very expensive to maybe hop a couple of picks and get to where you need to be. And if that's the case, God help us all.
37:08
Well, 'cause last year, that's why we all lost money last year- Right... was because the Penix pick just threw the draft on its head- [laughs]... and then it was game over. Let us never forget. Yeah.
37:16
[laughs] That's right. Yeah, they walk up there, they take Michael Penix, and I'm like- Yeah... "Well, I'm losing money this year." Yeah. Like, I mean, like, for sure, you know? Okay.
37:22
What, where do you stand, uh, I'll sort of- Mm-hmm... you know, go to the, the go-tos here. Where do you stand on Ashton Jeanty? If I said to you right now, "Okay, he gets drafted by whom and where?" You would say...
37:33
I would still say the Raiders, but I think he's, I think he's in play at four and in play at five, where- Wow. Four, two...
37:42
because everybody knows that if he makes it to the Raiders, he's very highly likely to go there, and it might be again one of these teams that just goes, "Okay, there, there is only a handful of players that we think are honestly plug and play, all-pro from day one dudes," right?
37:59
Jeanty seems to be that according to all of these. According to everybody- Yeah... but like, uh, uh, my, my, I love Ashton Jeanty- Yeah... as a college running back who played, oh, by the way, in the Mountain West. Yeah.
38:10
Are we making him out to be a generational player? [laughs] I know. I mean s- to be mentioned in the same breath as Saquon Barkley, right, is. And, and, and then he, and he is- Yeah... already mentioning that- Yeah...
38:21
himself. And I, look, again, we're not talent evaluators. Yes. Maybe I don't know what the heck I'm talking about. Yeah, same with me.
38:28
But, but, but the Raiders, just forget the talent evaluation, um, Daniel Jeremiah made this point. Okay, the, the Lions drafting Jahmyr Gibbs made sense because the Lions had everything else in place. Mm-hmm.
38:39
The Raiders don't. No. So they're gonna draft him? The Raiders don't, except for the head coach, who we know loves running backs. Loves running backs. Loves running backs. Yes. Loves turning- True...
38:49
around and handing the ball off, and, like, I think it's a program fit more than anything to me right now.
38:55
I, I thought it was crazy, too, when everybody was coming out and just like, "Oh, Jeanty six, Jeanty six, Jeanty six," and then you, you look at it and you're like, "Well, it's Pete Carroll."
39:02
I mean, like, I think that, that is what Pete Carroll loves. Pete Carroll loves running backs and Pete Carroll loves to run the ball. Does he love him at six, though? I know. Yeah. I know. All right, what about Shedeur?
39:11
No idea. Sh- Shedeur is the craziest thing in the world to me.
39:14
So I have a decent position on him now, I think, because I have him to go exactly two, and then I have over three and a half, which, and we know that's moved to eight and a half now at this point. Yeah.
39:23
So I've got a pretty good position on- Shedeur, remember that? Over three and a half used to be there. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It was, 'cause that was, it, the math to me was he's definitely not going one.
39:32
I can't imagine the Giants have brought in Jameis and Russ Wilson to take him at three. So I'm like, okay, he either goes exactly two, or he goes over three, you know?
39:40
And h- so I've got a decent position on him, but I mean, if, if they walk to the podium, even though we think we know exactly where two's gonna go, a- and the Browns say Shedeur, I'm not going to be floored.
39:50
They need a quarterback. Their quarterback situation is terrible. You can't just assume you're gonna be back at the top of the draft next year.
39:57
So it wouldn't, like, blow me away if they did it, but it seems very unlikely at this point.
40:01
And from everything that I hear from, from down in New Orleans, like, the Saints are not, like, jumping up and down about Shedeur. No, clear. If anything, they like Dart better. Yeah. And so
40:12
I- I kinda like Dart better, too. Yeah. And so now we're looking at, okay, he slips there. Next logical spot, Pittsburgh, all the way down at 21. I mean, that's kinda what we're looking at.
40:22
I wonder if there's a team that's just got their mouths shut right now- Yeah... that's just like, "We're getting a quarterback, we're just not telling anybody."
40:29
You know, it's a very unpopular opinion amongst the talent evaluators, but me sitting behind this desk and just spouting off, Gil- Yeah... is I'm kinda like,
40:37
if you need a quarterback, you should probably just take a quarterback. And, and I hope that you hit on one that- Yeah... that, that, that everybody isn't necessarily, like, think... I was not high on Bo Nix.
40:48
Yeah, I was not either. Look what Bo Nix did. I mean, you know, uh, so it's g- Bo Nix is awesome. Yeah, so you go in and, like- Yeah... you take a dude and you hope you hit, because- Yeah...
40:55
as you've said it a million times, that's how it's... You cannot win the NFL without a quarterback, and you almost can't win without a cheap one early on, so you- Right...
41:02
can build around him, and then when you end up having to pay him, at least the, the pieces are there. Okay, so if someone came to you right now- Mm-hmm...
41:07
a little more than 48 hours before the draft, and they said, "All right, give me a bet right now that's available that you feel the most confident." I asked this of Andy Molator yesterday. Mm-hmm.
41:15
He said, "Over 14 and a half SEC players in the first round," which is hilarious, by the way, right? Yeah. One conference- Yeah... to get basically half the picks in the first round.
41:24
But he said that that's the most confident he's in. What about for you? So for me, just from a pricing standpoint, this goes back to our epic draft from three years ago- Oh, no...
41:34
right, where you've got a coin flip situ- we had a coin flip situation. For those that are, that weren't with us, right? That's right.
41:39
We had a coin flip situation in which we're looking at two corners that could go at the top of the draft, that basically heading into the season you had one guy that was favored, you have another guy that had a better season, and so i- you know, everyone's like, "Oh, it's definitely Sauce Gardner.
41:53
It's right there. It's Sauce Gardner, Sauce Gardner, Sauce Gardner, Sauce Gardner." Well, we're like, "Eh, I don't know about all that," and then we end up getting seven to one.
42:00
A- and, and I'm sitting here looking at this, these, these two tight ends. It's kinda like pick your poison, right? I mean, like, Loveland does a little bit more in from a blocking standpoint and something.
42:11
So, like, could he just be the flavor that a team likes a little bit better than Warren? And so if that's the case, you're getting, like, five to one on him to be the first tight end. I really like it.
42:20
I think one in, uh, you know, a little more than one in five times some team goes, "You know, I just kinda like his skill set a little bit better." It's not necessarily that I don't like this guy. Right.
42:29
It's just I kinda like this guy a little bit better. I think you hit on a broader point, though. Whether, whether it's that one, right- Mm-hmm... which is a good call. L- Loveland, Warren, who knows who goes first.
42:37
Five to one, maybe you just take a fly- Yeah. I think that's generally how I would approach this draft, which is take ridiculous shots. Yes. Yes.
42:45
Because that's, because in a draft where you don't know much, that's the way to play it, whether that's positional, the way that I played it. Hey, New Orleans, uh, did the Luke Swain thing.
42:52
New Orleans drafted defensive lineman first. Yeah. Seven to one. Yeah. Sure, if that hits, it's, that's my draft. Right. Right.
42:58
I, and I think that f- because if it does play out like I say, and I think that it will be a little bit easier to move around, and it's not so expensive to move around, then that strategy you just mentioned is the only strategy, right?
43:08
Right.
43:08
Because it's going to be someone going, "Well, we thought we were gonna be drafting here, and this is who we were looking at, but we can move up four spots and get this guy that is position XYZ that we didn't think was gonna be there," given like you said.
43:21
So now, you know, you start to look at these positional things where I think the position to be drafted by is a market that we can still bet, like, up to right now and take some of- Yeah... these long shots, right?
43:31
Take the long shots. Like you said, like, you go in and it's like, if, if everybody thinks they're taking an offensive lineman or everybody thinks they're taking defensive lineman, could they take a wide receiver?
43:38
Is there a way, is there a world that exists they take a wide receiver, or take a corner or t- whatever? I think that's the way to go about it right now.
43:43
Especially if they want an offensive lineman, but then there's a run on them- Yeah... which they can't anticipate, and then it's like, "Well, I guess we're not taking the third- Yeah... or fourth best offensive."
43:50
Uh, I think that's a big brain toggle. So f- again, three, four years ago, we would kill the draft, right? Yeah. 8-1, 12 and 0, whatever it was. That draft where Stingley went third to Houston- Mm...
44:01
was sort of, that ought to have been the toggle where it's like, okay, the only reason we won that draft is because that happened. It wasn't like the run out ATM- Yeah... like before.
44:11
And now these last couple years, it's just- Yeah... much more difficult. Yeah. If and if we get a Penix situation again- Yeah... T- uh, on Thursday night, I will lose money yet again, right?
44:20
If some team walks up there and just goes absolutely bonkers off the board, well, I'll lose money again. All right. Matt is, uh, sticking around for Stormy of course. Actually, that's his real gig here.
44:30
He was just kind enough to join us on the last, uh, segment of a Numbers Game. Thank you, Matt. I appreciate it, sir. Absolutely. Stormy and Matt with Money Moves next.
44:38
Uh, again, the, uh, Beating the Book NFL Draft pod live on the YouTube page at 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific. Check it out there. Enjoy from BSN, the Sports Betting Network.
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