Transcript 0:00 [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 0:10 Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. 0:18 It's Gil Alexander, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. What's happening? What's happening, party people? Uh, Jonathan Vontobel standing by to talk, uh, NBA with us, maybe some draft nuggets. 0:29 Jonathan Davis on the NHL playoffs. Sia Najad on golf and the NFL draft as well. Uh, real quick, we get, uh, tweets at Beating The Book. 0:37 "Did you notice," this is JasonH11, "Did you notice that Jason literally had a cloud of smoke around him?" Yes, it did. It was a little blurry. I noticed that as well. Uh, we're creating smoke now, I guess, around Jason. 0:48 He did, by the way, just to clarify what he said out of the gate, 'cause I was a little out of the break there, 'cause I was a little confused myself. I thought he said Texas quarterback. 0:55 He said Texas cornerback was his bet, right? Jadon Barron going, uh, top 10. He's taking a flyer on that. But it sounded like he said Texas quarterback, so I was a little confused also. 1:05 I'm, I'm sure there were some who were as well listening. 1:07 And then the numbers guys, "If it's advantageous in betting to go down the road less traveled, Gil, should you be putting your efforts towards betting doubles tennis? [laughs] I never hear anyone making picks on that." 1:16 No, man, I'm not doing doubles. No. Singles is hard enough. Doubles is, you don't know who, like, is totally into it or who's not, besides the, the very double- doubles teams at the top. 1:26 By the way, updating the tennis for today, we're two and one. Uh, hit on, uh, Karle overnight for our subscribers, vsin.com/picks. Uh, plus 157 over Rebeka Gramova. 1:37 And here this morning, hit on Rebeka Masarova over Ajla Toml- Tomljanovic minus 125, but we did lose on Suzanne Lamens, uh, as a dog against Emma Raducanu. Emma Raducanu and her lovely self winning that one. 1:51 So two and one with, uh, Kruger up a set, and then Francesca Jones is the only one yet to go. Francesca Jones still has not started, plus 151 over Dayana Yastremska if you wanna partake. 2:02 He is our senior NBA analyst, and right now in the, uh, VSiN Killer Sports NBA Challenge, he sits in third place. He is knocking at the door right now. 2:12 Alex Christensen, uh, from Bet US is at, is a seven and one in first place, uh, tied with Steve Fezzik, who's seven and two. JVT is six and two, and he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. 2:24 You can follow him on Twitter @meJVT. A fine start, sir, to the contest. Uh, yes, but a start nonetheless, so we'll see how we finish. Uh- Yes... that is the most important aspect o- of everything here. 2:35 And, uh, the way that I like to handicap, uh, handicap game to game, I'm sure that I will get my teeth kicked in at some point, flying in the face of the zigzag and all these other things. 2:43 So we'll see how that works out. It didn't work out in the late game last night, that's for sure. Give us the theory. Give us the NBA playoff theory. You just referenced zigzag. 2:50 Give us the one that, that bothers you the most, that you just don't buy into, that you hear bandied around. Uh, so for me, the, the, and on top is the, uh, team down two-nothing going back home. 2:59 So this is something, it's, it's my quarterbacks in the first round of the NBA, Gil, right? So, like, every year, right, I, I bet under first round quarterbacks. I think it's ridiculous. It has done very well. 3:09 And this down two-nothing trend for your audience, right? A team loses the first two games of a series, goes back home. The thought is, is that they're going to play much better. They're back at home. They're desperate. 3:18 Since 2021, teams down two-nothing going back home, the, the theory is you bet on first quarter, first half 'cause they're gonna get off to a good start. 3:25 Well, if you bet them in the first quarter, you're 12 and 17 against the spread. And if you bet them in the first half, you're 13 and 16 against the spread since 2021. 3:32 Uh, the, the theory here, of course, being that this has been very much factored into the market. You see it in so many different ways. You'll see team-- One of the most egregious ones was a Denver Nuggets team. 3:41 I- if remember the year they got swept by the Suns, um, they were down two-nothing going back home to Denver. They were, I think, three-and-a-half point dogs for the game. 3:48 They were one-point favorites in the first quarter and one-and-a-half point favorites in the first half. Like, it's, you see stuff like that all the time, and it's something that drives me nuts. 3:56 A lot of people will throw out the trend that goes back to 2013, but that is well before the books really caught up and priced all of this into the market, and I think you really should focus on the recent years, which of course it has been baked in, and I think it's a ridiculous thing to just blindly play, but a lot of people do it. 4:11 So there, I think that's a good nugget. [clears throat] Pardon me. I think that's a good thing to, uh, remind folks of, that, uh, these narratives are not often based in any kind of, uh, data. 4:21 What about tonight's three games, John? I'm curious if you have any thoughts, any bets on any of them. Let's start with Orlando and Boston game two. Boston with Tatum questionable here, 10-and-a-half point favorites. 4:32 They won game one by 17, but they did trail by one at the half. Yeah. So I did the, um, we'll see. Like right now it's like, like you said, it's 10 and a half. So I didn't actually have a bet here. 4:42 I did the contest thing, which was like, well, it's 12 and a half of the contest, so I'll use, uh, Orlando here. [laughs] Uh, it doesn't look like Jayson Tatum's going to play. 4:49 I th- unless he was upgraded, I think he's officially, like designation-wise, doubtful, uh, with this wrist injury that he's gonna have. 4:55 Orlando is the better defensive team, and if Tatum's not gonna be out there, you should be able to kind of put the clamps down and keep yourself within a pretty big number as this thing. 5:03 Uh, it's, uh, I think it's something that really is going to work in their favor. So, um, especially at 12, you are fine. At 10 and a half, just sit back and wait, see if you can get something in game. 5:12 Didn't really have anything, at least in Orlando and Boston. You want any part of 196 and a half? I'd say I think you're going under, if anything, right? 5:20 I mean, I know the slow total, a lot of people would initially think like, "Wow, this is ridiculous." No. 5:24 I mean, look, Orlando, if they're going to win this game, if they're going to cover, it is going to be a contest in which they stay inside of this number because of the way they play defensively. 5:33 They're not a good three-point shooting team. They're not a high volume three-point shooting team. 5:36 Part of their logic would be running Boston off the three-point line and getting those looks not to go down or at least contesting some of those, forcing them to go inside of the three-point line. 5:44 That, of course, is not conducive to scoring either. I think that that's gonna be a low scoring game. So to me, it would be under 197, and I think we're gonna start to head that direction. 5:51 I think a couple of spots are already down to 196 and a half. Yeah. Uh, I saw 196, and then it popped back up to 196 and a half, uh, offshore here. Yep. 5:58 Miami, Cleveland game two tonight in terms of the, uh, chronology of the tip-offs. Cleveland a 12-and-a-half point favorite again in game two, up one to nothing in this series. 6:08 I wanna-- so the way that I've described this is, like, I wanna give Erik Spoelstra credit. I mean, you know, like, he, he deserves some credit with the way that he can coach. 6:15 I think that he's going to be good for at least sometimes getting his team inside of some of these games, being competitive. 6:20 Look, they were inside of the number a vast majority of that game in game one on Sunday, and then of course they let go of the rope, and they end up not covering that one. 6:27 I don't think it would be a surprise to ask Miami to do this. But Gil, I think there's just so many different things that they have a-at issue here. Their biggest weapon is their zone defense. 6:35 Well, the Cavaliers can shoot pretty well. They can shoot over the top. They can break them out of it. They've got versatile bigs that can go into the teeth of the defense and pass around. 6:42 Uh, you've got guys that on the perimeter you're gonna have trouble guarding 'cause you don't really have great perimeter defenders that can keep up with both Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. You saw that. 6:50 The Cavaliers were touching paint almost every single time, getting in the restricted area, and either finishing at the rim or kicking it out to open shooters. So I think it's a matchup that doesn't really work well. 6:59 And my only thing is maybe Spoelstra, like, puts it together with glue, duct tape, and whatnot to get them inside of that number, but that's not something I wanna handicap and bank on in a game in which I think they're so severely outmatched. 7:09 All right, Rockets are three-and-a-half point favorites. They're obviously down one to nothing in this series against the Dubs. Uh, talked about it earlier how a lot didn't go the Rockets' way. 7:17 They, they did have a 52 to 36 rebounding advantage in game one, but they missed nine free throws. They were 11 of 20. Uh, they had 16 turnovers. This total is a massive adjustment too, JVT. Yeah. 7:28 It's gone from 213 to 204. What do you make of that? I, I, I tend to lean over just because you can't-- like, Houston can't be that bad on offense [laughs] again, one would assume. 7:39 I mean, they were so bad in game one a-and a lot of it had to do with, I think, their own failings. Uh, Fred VanVleet, you would expect a good three-point shooter and just overall offensive player. He's fine. 7:49 He's not gonna have the same game that he is going to or that he did have in that last game. Better variance in terms of three-point shooting for these teams, especially for the Houston Rockets. 7:56 And we did see that Alperen Şengün, uh, did actually do a pretty brilliant job. Yeah. He was generating second chance opportunities, and he was getting there, and they were having issues containing him. 8:05 So I think that this is a game where I'd be pretty interested to kind of buy back on getting this thing over the total. 8:10 I understand why we're getting as low as we are, but I think there's a lot of indicators that could get you to the point where this game goes over the total. 8:17 So I think it's a pretty extreme adjustment when you're talking about that. I know that pace-wise, too, it was a pretty slow game. That might get you. It was only 88 possessions in game one. 8:27 But I think that this ultimately quickens up a little bit here, and you get some better offensive variance, and it goes over a very much adjusted total here. 8:33 Yeah, I thought it was a big adjustment on the Lakers-T-Wolves total last night. I went over. Yeah. And then, uh, these teams went 11 of 54 combined from three. That ain't gonna get it done. 8:42 So sometimes it's just a clang fest. What about tomorrow and the next night? What is the game that you have the most betting conviction on? Uh, so as-- so actually it's this game here a little bit. 8:53 Uh, I will say really quickly that I did take three with Golden State. It's looking like the wrong number 'cause we're up to four in some spots. Again, the zigzag is ridiculous. 9:01 Uh, I, I think this is insane that this was one and a half, and now we're up to four at multiple spots for Houston. So I would take four, uh, with that one as well. 9:08 When you talk about the next one, uh, or at least in the next couple of days, give me Detroit. It's gonna be a pick r-- I, I got it at pick here against the New York Knicks. I think the Knicks are in trouble, Gil. 9:17 They don't really have an answer for Cade Cunningham. He has been pretty solid in the first two games. They have to use their best defender in OG Anunoby for him. 9:25 So then you look around to the floor, and other guys like Tobias Harris are having a lot of success in this series. I think that this is a very average to below average defensive team in New York. 9:34 And I don't know how much you've watched of the regular season, but I will tell you, those home games for Detroit are gonna be unreal. They have not won a playoff game since 2007. 9:42 Uh, they have not been to the postseason since, I think, 2017. 9:45 I think that this is going to be something where they walk into a hornet's nest against a team that I think actually matches up somewhat well with them, the Knicks that is, a-and they get it taken to them. 9:53 So I think pick is fair with the Detroit Pistons there in game three back at home. The Knicks just also feel like one of these rosters that has a ceiling, and it is, like, a clear ceiling. Yeah. 10:02 Like, does anybody really think that's a championship caliber team? They can't possibly. No, I don't think so. Yeah. Especially when you compare them with their peers, right? And I'll say this, too. 10:09 I mean, look, this is more of, like, an aesthetic thing that kind of irritates me, but they are very reliant on how the game is called, right? 10:15 Like, Jalen Brunson very much needs that game to go in his favor in terms of officiating because he's always hunting for those free throws. 10:22 And if they're not getting them, as you've seen in this series, like the first few games, you're letting them play, and that has very much frustrated this New York Knicks offense and has put them in a weird spot where they have been just very disjointed. 10:32 They've also, the Pistons, switched the way they've defended Karl-Anthony Towns from the regular season to the postseason. He has not figured that out. 10:38 He has been absent throughout two games now, too, and they have to go on the road and do that. I just don't buy that this is gonna be a situation where the Knicks can thrive. 10:45 So I think it's a pretty good spot to go and pick with the Pistons. All right, last, uh, 30 seconds here, John. Give me the JVT most outlying NFL draft opinion that you have. I mean, it's not outlying anymore. 10:55 Every year it's under on quarterbacks, right? But it seems like the market is in my favor now here, so. [laughs] I forgot that's your thing. Yeah. Every year. It's every year. Uh- Yeah... 11:02 for your audience, by the way, this is the ninth year we've had it out here in Las Vegas. Uh, we are six and two to the under on quarterbacks in the first round. It did go over last year. And I keep invoking this, Gil. 11:11 I think this is the Kenny Pickett draft, right? Where we had- Yes... a number of three and a half quarterbacks in the first round, and only one went in the first round. He went in the 20s. 11:18 Uh, ironically enough, Steelers might be one of the guys to go in the-- one of the teams to go get Shador. But I do think that this is a draft where we're going to see maybe two guys go in the first round. That's right. 11:26 Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback to go first round his year. That's right. Kenny Pickett, who, uh, says, "Oh, I'm gonna be the starter in Cleveland, by the way, this year." Um, thank you, John. 11:36 Appreciate it as always, man. Good luck with all the bets. Appreciate it, man. Thank you. JVT crushing right now in the, uh, VSiN Killer Sports Challenge. Again, you can check out everybody's picks at vsin.com/challenge. 11:48 Coming back with Jonathan Davis on the NHL next. 11:51 [upbeat music]Betting Network A special numbers game investigation reveals that the NFL draft is tomorrow. 12:11 Round number one, and VSiN knows every pick matters. 12:13 Tune in for two special live shows breaking down every pick from a betting perspective, VSiN Prime Time: A Draft Edition starting at 7:00 PM Eastern, followed by Cashing Out Draft Edition at 11:00 PM Eastern with Joe Serallo. 12:25 Plus, explore our NFL Draft Hub on the VSiN Watch app, featuring exclusive analysis, team needs, and insights, or visit vsin.com/draft for full coverage. Gil Alexander live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. 12:39 Lovely, majestic downtown Las Vegas. Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. I just wanna read this one. Doug Knutson Sports, hope I'm pronouncing that correct, Doug. 12:46 "I know you're focused on March/April MLB wins, but you loved both the Mets, and the Red Sox and Mets are running away with the April wins, only followed by Red Sox. 12:56 So Mets are running away with it, followed by the Red Sox. Props to you." Well, I d- I was not a Red Sox guy. I was a Mets guy, to be clear. And they're not running away with it, right? 13:04 They're tied with the Padres, 17 wins, followed by the Dodgers at 16. I will hate myself if the Mets win it, 'cause I had them raised to 10, but I appreciate the sentiment, Doug. Thank you so much for that. 13:15 Um, let's talk some NHL playoffs 'cause we have not done that yet today. And like the NBA, it was kind of a more ho-hum night, uh, in the NHL last night, although folks in, uh, Toronto might disagree with that. 13:26 That one did go to, uh, overtime. But otherwise, Hurricanes, uh, spot the Devils a goal. They, uh, win it 3-1, take a two to nothing series lead in that best of seven series. 13:37 The Leafs, as I mentioned, cough up a two to nothing lead to the Senators. They need overtime, a Max Domi goal to win that one, take a two to nothing lead in that series against Ottawa as they head back there to Ottawa. 13:47 And then the, uh, Panthers win game one six to two against the Lightning. Some of our experts didn't see that one coming. 13:54 And then perhaps most shockingly to the folks around here, the Vegas Golden Knights, up one to nothing against the Wild, get smacked by Minnesota last night. A three to nothing lead in the first period. 14:04 They, uh, upped it to four to nothing, and Minnesota goes on to a five to two win as they head back to Minnesota with that series knotted up at one game a piece. 14:12 Our own Jonathan Davis joins us now to talk some NHL with us, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, John? I am doing great, Gil. 14:20 It was a, a great atmosphere despite the home team losing at T-Mobile last night. Uh, never a bad time, uh, at, at a Knights game. Never a bad time. 14:29 By the way, Jonathan, the host of, uh, Ice Cap on SiriusXM NHL, of course, and our, uh, VSiN NHL betting analyst. You can follow him on Twitter at westcoasthky. See what he did there with hockey. 14:40 Let's talk about tonight's games, John, and then we'll start with the Caps in Montreal. Alexander Ovechkin doing his thing once again in, uh, game one. What a year. 14:50 Um, obviously a guy who, uh, has done everything except, until game one, scoring a overtime goal in the postseason. He does that. Caps win. 14:59 They also, like, uh, like the Leafs last night, gave up a two to nothing lead in that first, uh, in that game one against the Canadiens, only to win it in overtime. 15:06 Game two tonight, Caps minus 186, um, on the money line. You are playing this a couple ways, I believe. 15:15 Yeah, the way I decided to target it, you know, what, what I've found so far, Gil, is that we've had five games so far where the, the team that has lost game one has come back and scored a goal the f- a goal in the first period in game two. 15:27 So we're gonna attack Montreal tonight just to score a goal in the first period, uh, in this one here. I, I, you know, trends are your friends un- un- until they're not, and this has been one. 15:37 You know, the, the, the philosophy behind it is, is that that team that's down is trying to get that series even. So I definitely like that, uh, I definitely like the Canadiens to score a goal in the first period. 15:48 That's one way I'll attack it. Also like their two stars, Nick Suzuki and, and Cole Caufield of the Canadiens. Uh, both, you know, were their top two scorers during the regular season. 15:58 They've been two of their best playoff p- you know, they, they've had great, good playoff success in their brief career, and they've had a lot of success against the Capitals. 16:06 So I do like them both to score a goal tonight. You're getting them, you're getting Caufield at plus 200. You're getting Suzuki at plus 230. 16:15 Um, so I'll, I'll play those small along with parlaying them both to score, to, uh, r- record at least one point tonight. All right. 16:22 Can I tempt you with a Canadiens four to one adjusted series price, or do you want no part of that? No, I don't want any part of it. Um, no. 16:31 Uh, uh, look, I sh- I think Montreal's got a realistic shot, but they're not, they're not taking the next four from Washington. 16:38 I- if they're able to win this series, you know, I think it would have, it would go minimum six and, and would likely have to go the distance. But I don't think by any means the, the Canadiens are out of this one. Okay. 16:49 And also, by, by the way, Alexander Ovechkin, uh, has now got four goals in five games against Montreal goalie Samuel Montembeault. 16:58 The price isn't great for him to score at about plus 110, but I'll sh- I, I would still grab the plus money. Still grab the plus money on that, okay. 17:06 Stars-Avalanche, which maybe heading into the first round was maybe the most anticipated series of all of them. Stars knotted up at one game a piece, uh, in game two with the, uh, with the overtime win. 17:19 This back at Colorado now, the Avalanche minus 173 favorites. You also have a couple ways to play this. 17:26 Yeah, I mean, look, the big story in this one is that w- we're likely gonna see the return of Gabe Landeskog, the Avalanche captain, who has not played an NHL game for three years, but has never given up on the idea of coming back. 17:39 Did play a couple of, uh, games, uh, for their American Hockey League team, their top minor league team, just before their season came to an end. 17:46 But, uh, wow, you're gonna a- for Landeskog to come back on the ice tonight to play his first NHL game in three years in the Stanley Cup playoffs in front of the home crowd, it's gonna be an electric atmosphere. 17:58 So, uh, I do like Colorado to win this game, but I'll, I'll target their team total at over three and a half at about minus 110. 18:07 What we've seen, Gil, I think all but two playoff games this year, the team that has won the game has scored at least four goals. Uh, Avalanche scored four goals in game one. 18:16 They fell just short of that number in game two, but I'll come back with them, uh, at over three and a half. And then my other... 18:24 Well, I'm gonna go with one other prop in this one, and that is my new favorite prop in the playoffs. 18:29 It's players to block shots, and Esa Lindell of the Dallas Stars has been a block shot phenom, and we're, now we're, and the, the books are starting to catch onto it. 18:40 But you can play him at over two and a half block shots at about minus 140, and then you can also go in the alt line at over three and a half at plus 190. He's hit this number in both games, um, has Lindell. 18:55 All right, to, to the game two of a series that, uh, I think most people would say was the most exciting of all the game ones. Uh, Edmonton and the LA Kings. 19:05 I know you, uh, have you attended this, or you're heading to this one? What, what are you doing with this one, Jonathan? Are you, are you even gonna be in attendance? 19:11 Well, yeah, I was at game one, and that was just bonkers. 19:14 It was what, uh, for Kings fans, uh, it was almost the reverse of what was called the Miracle in Manchester, where the Kings were battled back from being down five-nothing to Edmonton in a playoff game and ended up coming back to win that game. 19:28 They, they tried to do the reverse in this one. It was a th- one of the, sort of thrilling game on Monday. 19:34 D- Edmonton down from, you know, four-nothing and five-two, ties the game at five with just over a minute to go, only to lose [laughs] with 40 seconds to go. But yes, I am flying back to LA from Vegas today. 19:44 I'll be back. I'll, I'll be at Crypto for game two. Uh, the Kings look like they're, they're in a great spot to finally, you know, exercise the demons and beat the Oilers for the first time in four playoffs, Gil. 19:56 Uh, my... The way I'll attack this one here is Adrian Kempe of the LA Kings has got 12 goals against the Oilers in the last three play, uh, three-plus playoff years. 20:07 Get him tonight at an, uh, plus 180 for an anytime goal. And I'm also gonna target his shots on goal prop. It's a little juicy at over two and a half at minus 160, but he's hit this number in three straight. 20:21 In eight of 11, he's been, uh, the Kings' most dynamic goal scorer, uh, in, in the playoffs. So that's the way I'm gonna attack this one. I haven't decided on any Oilers props yet. Still working on that. 20:33 It was a long night last night. After the Oilers game, I did do the Ice Cap show, and I was leaving T-Mobile at about, uh, 12:15 last night. So, uh, still got a little bit of work to do. I understand. We- it is allowed. 20:45 We will allow it, Jonathan. I just wanna ask you this, though. I, I, uh, I mentioned the Canadiens adjusted series price four to one. Let's, let's... 20:52 I, I, I recognize, let's just say in advance, you are not actually playing any of this, but if I said to you you must choose two of these, talking about adjusted series prices. I'll give you all the dog prices right now. 21:03 Canadiens, as we mentioned, four to one to win the series down a game to the Caps. Uh, Stars plus 150 in a series knotted up against the Lanche. Oilers plus 180 down a game to the Kings. 21:16 Lightning plus 180, adjusted series price down a game to the Panthers. Senators six to one down two games to none against the Leafs. 21:24 Wild plus 170 knotted up with the Knights, and the Blues seven to one down two to nothing to the Jets. What's the one you would play above all? Um, 21:41 I would play Tampa, with Edmonton being a close second. Tampa plus 180, which a lot of folks- Yeah... 21:48 th- think Tampa was gonna take that series, brief flop, and Edmonton, the Oilers, uh, plus 180 as well down a game to the Kings. Um- Yeah... yeah. Gil, as much as I... Look, I think LA's the better team. 22:00 Plus 180 when I've got the two best, you know, two of the best players in the L- in the NHL on my side, it, it, it is worth a shot, uh, at, at that price to take the Edmonton Oilers. Okay. 22:11 Jonathan, appreciate it as always, man. Enjoy and, uh, good luck. Uh, I know you're headed to the game. Enjoy the game tonight. All right, Gil. Thanks for having me. Have a great rest of your day. You too. 22:19 Jonathan Davis, host of, uh, Ice Cap on SiriusXM, VSiN NHL betting analyst. Last night in the NHL, sort of like the NBA, where it was a sort of a ho-hum night. Again, Toronto did go to overtime. 22:30 So that was one exciting game, but a, a lot of blowouts, which is why betting on these is the great equalizer. When you're betting on them, they're still fun to watch. 22:39 Uh, but the average fan, uh, kind of a blowout fest yesterday. We'll see what happens at both the Association and NHL tonight. See if they can, uh, capture some of the excitement from a couple nights ago. 22:49 Sia Nejad will join us next talking golf, Zurich Classic, and his thoughts on the NFL draft. It's the Numbers Game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 23:06 Ready to get in on the action? First Bet has you covered. Sign up now to access exclusive promotions and bet on hundreds of thrilling horse races every day right from your phone or computer. Visit firstbet.com. 23:15 That's the number one S-T bet.com, and use promo code VSiN200 to score a 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200. Don't miss out. Start betting today at firstbet.com. Gil Alexander. 23:28 Uh, Kelly Biblin still on vacation, uh, hanging out in Turks and Caicos. He'll be back, uh, next week. Wyatt Tomchek doing a, uh, bang-up job in his, uh, stead for sure. 23:38 Uh, this next gentleman is the host and analyst for SportsLine. Um, you can follow him on Twitter at sianejad. That's S-I-A N-E-J-A-D. But as I discovered this past week, he is a man of many talents. 23:50 He does a podcast on other subjects as well. He joins us now to talk some golf and maybe some macro NFL draft thoughts as well. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Sia? 24:00 Gil, thanks for that wonderful introduction. Yeah, I do some motivational stuff and, and, you know, you know, good habits and things like... I host some podcasts and some shows in that regard as well. 24:08 I even do a show called Sia Nejad Sports. I'm not trying to promo it. I'm really trying to invite you on the show because I have people come on that show tell their story to inspire others to make their own stories. 24:17 So, uh, maybe you could come on that show one day. I would love. I'd be honored to come on, Sia. Thank you so much. I'd, I'd be honored to come on. 24:23 Um, y- and you, and I would imagine you gain fulfillment from both in different ways Yeah, I mean, to be honest, Gil, you know my background, right? 24:31 I, I, I was an attorney, I jumped into pharma for a little bit, then I became a, a media and an analyst person. I, I never like to pigeonhole myself in. 24:38 And if, if others do, that's fine, but my preference is to kind of, um, skate along a lot of different paths. 24:43 And if I can help people and motivate people and create some good habits through some of the content I do, and while at the same time doing sports content, uh, and being a host and things of that nature, I may as well take advantage of all those opportunities. 24:55 All right. I missed the pharma part in the middle there. You just slipped in. I wasn't familiar with that part, but I, I s- Yeah... saw that you were just like, "Yeah, pharma," and then you moved on. [laughs] Um, okay. 25:02 Well, you're here to talk a little golf with us. Mm-hmm. The Zurich Classic. We're, we're still a few weeks away from the PGA, second major of the year in golf. First of all, do you have any PGA bets? 25:12 Have you made any of those, or do you usually wait till week of? Oh, you're talking about the PGA Championship. I, I usually... So that's a really good question. 25:20 Normally, I have bets already, uh, be- because it, sometimes it's just schedule issues with respect to the shows I do and the content that I do for, like, the weekly golf stuff and the NFL stuff. 25:29 So e- the, that's a long answer to say, no, I don't have any outrights for the PGA Championship. Okay. Sorry to shorthand the PGA Championship as the PGA. I was being too cool for school there. [laughs] All right. 25:39 Zurich Classic. Explain to us this format first. It's pretty crazy, and I, and I think for whatever reason, it, it turns people off because it's a different type of format. 25:49 I, I'm here to tell you that actually, personally, and maybe I'm in the minority, I think this is a really entertaining event. So you've got 82-person teams. Not 82. 25:58 82-person teams, and you're basically pairing up and playing best ball days one and three. 26:05 So you play your own ball, and that's where, like, the birdies and the eagles might come in, because you got two cracks at the apple, right? 26:11 You've got either you or your teammate have an opportunity to, to score, and you're gonna take the best score. On Friday and Sunday, that would be day two and day four, it's alternate shot. 26:20 So for example, Rory's at the top of the board. He's gonna go off the tee, then Shane Lowry's gonna hit the approach shot, then Rory's going to hit, you know, hopefully a putt, uh, i- in this case, and back and forth. 26:29 So it's, it's an interesting event because especially on Friday and Sunday, I think there's some theater in leaning on your partner and having to rely on your partner for every other shot. 26:38 See, as, as hack golfers, I won't include you, but as hack golfers like myself, this is how golf should be played. This is how you make golf fun for those of us who suck at this. 26:48 But for these guys, right, this is a, la, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, they are the short shots to win this at plus 360. Everybody else, starting with Kurt Kitayama and Collin Morikawa, 14 to 1 and longer. 27:00 Um, in the outright market, who did you go with? So it's interesting, because you mentioned Shane Lowry, Rory at the top of the board. 27:07 They were last year's winner, and I think conventional wisdom would be, okay, look at this board. Obviously, they're going to win it again. 27:13 It feels like a Scottie Scheffler situation and, like, with a weak f- with e- an even weaker field than he normally has. 27:19 But the way this tournament usually plays out, it's a lot of these no-name or just un- very much under-the-radar teams that are in contention. 27:27 For example, Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy, well, yeah, they won last year, but they had to go to a playoff to win it against, wait for it, Martin Kaymer and Chad Ramey. Gil, I ask you- Sure... 27:37 do you know who those two people are? Oh, sure. No, not at all. I don't. 27:41 Well, so that's the thing, and no disrespect to them, but the point I'm trying to make here is within the top five, some of my outrights were, were tied for fourth. 27:48 Two of my outrights were actually tied for fourth last year. The year prior to Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry winning, you had Nick Hardy and Davis Riley, two more names that aren't household names, obviously. 27:57 Granted, the year before that it was Xander and Cantlay. My point is, there's a lot of variance in this tournament. 28:01 It's partly because of the Thursday and Saturday rounds, where you can really pile up the birdies and just have a player get super, super scorching hot. So I've gone down the board a little bit. 28:10 Nicolai Højgaard at 28 to 1 with his brother Rasmus Højgaard. Uh, you know, neither of these guys playing great, but Rasmus has picked it up a little bit. 28:18 I love the obvious chemistry here, uh, with these two guys, you know, new to the PGA Tour, really trying to grind to a win. I think 28 to 1 is a fine number, especially given their upside and their potential. 28:29 Max Graziano and Nico Echavarria, these guys are flat-out scorers. You might hear the term team no putt. This is team all putt. 28:36 These guys pour it in from anywhere on the green, but I do think they have the makeup to be good on a course like this, where you can pile up birdies. Uh, Garrick Higgo, Ryan Fox. 28:44 Garrick Higgo won last week, uh, but I, I'm not gonna hold that against him. Ryan Fox, I think, is a, a very high pedigree player that just hasn't played well over the last year or so. 28:54 Higgo and Fox, and Graziano and Nico Echavarria, they were tied for fourth last year, so they have good experience on this track. And then finally, this is a super long shot. 29:01 You don't even have to bet this if you don't want to. Put a dollar on it. I like the upside of Chris Ventura and Antoine Rozner. They're 100 to 1. Again, that's a super long shot play. 29:09 It's those first three that right away, those three jumped out at me. Wow. Uh, I like those in terms of, uh, the, the, the length there. 28 to 1 all the way to 100 to 1 for some- Mm-hmm... of these, uh, plays. 29:19 And then, uh, in case you were worried that because it's a, uh, sort of a, a, a, you know, 82 team or two player teams, that Sia would not have first-round leaders, which is what he's known for in a regular event, fear not. 29:32 He has first-round leader plays here. What do you have? Yeah, I've picked four. 29:36 I wanted to, to narrow it down to three, since we only have 80 teams, but I'm just gonna give you four, and I'll tell you the one that you could leave out if you wanted to. Keith Mitchell's been great in first rounds. 29:44 Anybody who follows golf knows that Keith Mitchell's cashing first-round tickets, and he has a really good partner in J.T. Poston. So I think 28 to 1, very fair number. They go out in the morning. 29:52 Rasmus and Nicolai, H- the Højgaards, of course, they go out in the morning as well. I love their upside, and Rasmus has been particularly good early in tournaments as of late. 30:00 Graziano and Echavarria, that would be the team to leave off at 40 to 1, only because they go out in the afternoon, and I typically like to lean to the morning guys, even though it doesn't look like the wind's gonna be a huge problem in the afternoon. 30:11 And then finally, Rico Hoey, Sam Ryder. These guy, these guys are, like, first-round leader kings, especially Sam Ryder i- in terms of just, like, really getting hot in the first round. 30:20 Rico Hoey, really good tee to green. He's gotta get the putter going. Uh, but I think 45 to 1's a really good number. Uh, the Keith Mitchell one and the Rico Hoey one were, like, very easy, easy auto clicks for me. 30:29 All right, and then top 20s on Mitchell Poston and Higgo Fox, sort of staying consistent with that as well. Yeah, I think these are reasonable numbers. 30:36 If you wanna get a little bit more frisky, I mean, I think Mitchell Post in, uh, in the top 10 market is close to plus 200. 30:42 Many people will defer to that over the minus 135, but I just think top 20 for those two is a very comfy place to be. All right. Uh, NFL Draft, macro thoughts. 30:52 You're, you're in the DMV, as the kids call it these days, where you can bet this in DC but not in Maryland, Virginia. Is that true? I'm not sure about Maryland. 31:00 I know in Virginia I can't see the, the draft props, but when I go to DC to go to Monumental, uh, Sports Network, for example, uh, then, then all of a sudden the, the, the props pop up. So yes. Okay. 31:11 What, did you make any bets? Uh, what are your general thoughts here? You know, one of the bets that I, I haven't made it yet and, and I'm just kinda waiting to see where, where the line goes. 31:22 It was plus 150 for under two and a half quarterbacks in the first round. Uh, again, that's one I'm just kinda like battling back and forth. 31:30 And the reason I'm battling back and forth is I, I do like the line of like not three quarterbacks going in the first round, but I also always fear that team that's just gonna trade into late, the late first round and, and grab a quarterback because they see some upside with somebody. 31:44 So that's the one I'm considering the most. And for the record, I think the intrigue with the quarterbacks is, first of all, this is not a good quarterback class. I don't think I'm breaking any news here. 31:51 I don't even think Cam Ward's going to be that successful in the NFL. That's just my take. I'm with you. Uh, particularly not- Yeah... particularly not with the Titans. 31:58 Um, but the, the fact that Shedeur has fallen so far, that we're talking about Jaxson Dart and, and Jaylen Milroe and some of these other guys that, that might even jump Shedeur Sanders, I just think that makes for a very interesting day one, potentially day two. 32:12 I feel like Jaxson Dart might be the best of the bunch, but again, I'm no talent evaluator. We'll see. We'll see how it shakes out. But yeah, that, it, quarterback is gonna be fascinating. JVT was just on. 32:21 He says he thinks this is the, the Kenny Pickett draft, where only one quarterback goes into- Hmm... the, uh, first round. Todd McShay says under for sure, based on the people he's talked to. And as I've- Nice... 32:31 said numerous times, and, you know, ad nauseam here, because finally the draft will get here and we don't have to talk about it anymore, um, but if you, if you have these guys evaluated as QB six and seven from last year, right? 32:42 Just, just think about that. Then do you really wanna... It's, it's, you fight the instinct. You're nothing without a quarterback, but if these quarterbacks aren't very good, what are we doing? 32:50 So it's gonna be, it's gonna be fascinating how it plays out tomorrow. It is a, it's a tough... 32:55 You know, look, there's a lot of people who listen to when we talk NFL Draft, and there's a group of, of the audience, there's, there's a s- there's a percentage of the audience that ha- that hates the draft, and they're like, "Oh my God, I can't wait-" Hmm... 33:05 "till this is over." And by the way, it will be over. We won't talk about it next week at all. It ends this week. But there is a percentage where it's like this used to be such a money maker. 33:14 The problem is when you get to a draft like this where it is so uncertain- Yeah... 33:19 after, after a little while, we're just saying the same speculative things over and over again, and we can just sort of give you the, what I think you should do is bet teams positional stuff, because that's- Yeah... 33:32 what would be the best bang for your buck based on a draft that goes wacky. You know, again, I have New Orleans d- defensive line edge seven to one to go first. You should be doing that for a bunch of teams. 33:42 I really feel that. I agree with that 100%. Yeah. That, that, it's, that's the only way to bet this thing, I think, this year. Siya, thank you so much. I'd love to do your podcast. I appreciate it, man. Thank you. 33:51 I love being on with you. Thanks so much, Gil. Siya Najad from Monumental Sports and SportsLine. Coming back with final- [upbeat rock music] 34:06 A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back at VSiN, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. 34:13 Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek, everybody, or as some people call him, Wyland Tomchek, in for Kelly Bidling back on the desk. I- You doing good? You all right? I don't know. 34:21 Your, your Mountain West take, I've been itching to get back up here, so. [laughs] It only took me about three segments. 34:26 Was it, it was just 'cause I said Ashton Jeanty did play in the Mountain West, so, like, we're going crazy? But I- Hey, football's football. You know, there, there was a good story that, uh- Football is not football. 34:35 Hey, hey, hey. That is an incorrect statement. Where did, uh, Jerry Rice go play college ball at? That's Jerry. Were you comparing Ashton Jeanty to Jerry Rice? No, I'm just saying, it doesn't matter. 34:43 It, it's, talent is talent, man. Also, that was a different era where they, their talent evaluation was so bad. Nice try, though. It was a good effort, though. I give you credit for that. Did you, did you hear? 34:52 Uh, this is, uh, God, I can't remember what game it was. But Jeanty, 'cause he, he, I think he played his freshman ball in Italy 'cause his parents were in the military. Mm-hmm. 35:00 The high school coach goes, uh, "If I didn't start him at running back until his senior year, he would've been at Bama." So they felt that he had that. Okay. All right. They felt that. All right. I'm just saying. 35:09 Like I said, I could be wrong. I could be wrong, but he did play in the Mountain West. Uh, we get a, we get a tweet that will be in the book. 35:14 Brian M, Brian Morianan, "Gil and Tomchek need to button the top button for their segments. Kelly does when he returns as well." 35:22 I guess it's because Siya buttons his top button, and so Siya looks great doing that, but- It's just, you look, you look dumb. I, I look, I mean, I already look like a loser, but this is even more like a loser. 35:31 No, it's a sign of y- the, the kids button to the top. It's a sign of youth, so you probably should be buttoning to the top. I'm, I'm 31. I'm not that young. Yeah, but I mean, like me, if I do it, it's ridiculous. 35:41 But now they, now they want us to button, now Brian wants us to button all the way up to the top. I do enjoy the battle you have with the second button sometimes. I have a battle with the second button. Yeah. 35:48 It depends on the shirt. You know, certain shirts it goes down, a certain, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I gotcha. Plunging collars. Ladies, stay tuned. 35:55 Um, by the way, tomorrow on the show, Michael Montesano will be on talking NFL draft. It's our last go at the NFL draft. By the way, at Nevada, they take 'em off today. Oh, really? Is it midnight or is it 24 hours? 36:06 I think it might be 24 hours. I'm gonna lean on you 'cause I've never put an NFL draft bet in. At least with the, I remember with the NBA it's 24 hours, so I think it's 24 hours before the draft. 36:14 Um, so we won't have it, but other folks can still bet the draft all the way up to draft time tomorrow, uh, 5:00 PM Pacific tomorrow. Okay. Okay. Yeah, so it's exactly 24 hours before the s- before the draft starts. 36:26 I remember I ran into that with the NBA draft, uh, last time. 36:29 But, uh, Montesano will give his final thoughts, as will Zach Cohen tomorrow on the show, and Montesano also, I will, uh, my whole goal with Montesano is to get him to get enraged that Lou Dort was not even a finalist for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. 36:42 He will lose his mind. That will be my goal. He did have one, uh-... award winner, uh, already announced- Yes, Peyton Pritchard Peyton Pritchard is your sixth man. 36:49 Did you have, uh, your, your big bet is, is it, uh, most improved? I had Norm Powell, and then he got hurt. Ah. Yeah. He was, he was the favorite- Yeah... and then he got hurt. Uh, what can you do? 36:58 It's if he, it's like if you had, uh, Wemby bets, he was gonna win by a country mile. Don't, don't remind me. Don't remind me. Uh, G Bank, official bank, uh, official bank of VSIN. 37:07 Our best bets of the day, every show, every host, every sport, we recap them. Uh, beginning with myself, I believe. Yes? Um, yes. Here are my five tennis plays. 37:16 Again, these are two and one so far, and everything's started, so these actually aren't even. 37:20 Ashlyn Cougar is, uh, in a third set with Anastasia Potapova, and Francesca Jones and Diana Yastremska, if you're on that one, 5-5 on serve in the first set, trying to get a plus 151 home. 37:32 Trying to go four and one today. We shall see. Uh, I am not, I have not pulled the trigger yet on the over in Sacramento tonight. I still haven't decided if I'm playing it. 37:41 If I do, I'll put it on the vsin.com/picks page as well. Um, do we wanna do the NFL draft bets or do we skip those here for mine? Uh, we could do the NFL draft bets. 37:50 Yeah, NFL- That's, uh, 207 for every one bet Again, my NFL draft bets. Uh, Travis Hunter to go number two. Obviously, that number is long gone, minus 135. 37:57 Uh, the bottom play, Saints' position of first player drafted, defensive line edge at seven to one. I think that's about four to one right now. Might be lower. I haven't checked this morning. Those are the big bets. 38:08 The ones in between, not so big. Matthew Golden, first wide out selected. I expect to lose that, plus 140. Total first round running backs under two and a half. We shall see, minus 186. Tyler Warren over nine and a half. 38:20 Expect to win that. Ashton Jeanty over nine and a half at plus money. Expect to lose that. But again, give me the Saints with a d- defensive lineman or edge, and this draft doesn't matter. 38:30 And Travis Hunter going too, I can't lose big. Uh, Will Hill, Orlando team total tonight against the Celtics, under 92 and a half. He's on the Phillies in baseball, and the Brewers plus a half run first five. 38:44 So Phillies full game money line, Brewers plus a half first five. So the run line, if you will, on the Brewers in the first five. Uh, then we got some, uh, plays from Jason Weingarten. 38:55 He goes black and orange, black and orange, Giants and Orioles, respectively in baseball, and he's also on the Padres, uh, plus 142. So Giants, Orioles, Padres in baseball for Jason. 39:05 JVT on the Dubs tonight, taking the points with the Warriors tonight against the Rockets, which feels almost contrarian at this point, and kind of does based on market move. And he's also on the Pistons tomorrow night. 39:17 A strong conviction on the Pistons against the Knicks from JVT as the Pistons look to go up two to one in that best of seven series. And then Jonathan Davis 39:27 with a, uh, trio of, well, I should say six bets over three games in the NHL. In the Caps-Canadiens game, Montreal score in the first period, minus 134. 39:36 Then he's got a Suzuki-Caufield each to record at least one point bet, little parlay, plus 113 for the, uh, two Canadiens. 39:44 Then in the, uh, Lanche and Stars series, he's got Colorado team total tonight over three and a half goals, and then Esa Lindell over two and a half and three and a half blocked shots. The old blocked shots market. 39:57 He's all about that now. And then the Edmonton, uh, LA game, game two in that series, Edmonton to score a goal in the first period, and then Adrian Kempe to score plus 180. 40:07 That's from Jonathan Davis in the National Hockey League. Oh, and Sia, for goodness sake, with his, uh, Zurich Classic bets. Outrights on, uh, the Hoigaard brothers, Nicolai and Rasmus, 28 to 1. 40:18 Max Grazerman and, uh, Nico Echavarria, 45 to 1. Garrick Higgo and Ryan Fox, 50 to 1. Chris Ventura and Antoine Rozner, 100 to 1. Those are in the outright markets. 40:27 And then first round leaders, Keith Mitchell and JT Poston at 28 to 1. Uh, Rasmus and Nicolai Hoigaard at 35 to 1. Max Grazerman and Nico Echavarria, 40 to 1. Rico Hoye and Sam Ryder at 45 to 1. 40:39 Those are the first round leader market. And then top 20 is on Mitchell Poston and Higgo, Fox as well at minus 135 and plus 125 respectively. A bevy of bets, Wyatt. 40:49 I had forgotten that so many bets were, uh, were given on the, uh, show today. Yeah, it definitely made me work today. Sorry. Got my, got my, uh, I got my pay's worth. Uh, that's, you know, we'll decide that afterwards. 40:59 Uh, official bank of VSIN is G Bank, of course. G Bank upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new G Bank Visa Signature Card customers. 41:06 First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus. 41:13 In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. 41:25 That's vsin.com/gbank, subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. I just wanna say this one more time here on the show, uh, Wyatt, because I, I, after this show is over, we talk for a few minutes. 41:37 "Hey, was there anything social? What, what's on tomorrow?" That kind of thing. And then my whole goal here will be, am I adding any more NFL draft bets? 'Cause it's the final hours, as Brian Ortega said in my ear. 41:47 Five PM here in Nevada, it's over. Um, maybe there's some stuff straight on off- offshore, but I don't know how much I can get actually down on the offshore bets. So the question becomes, will I add to my bets? 41:58 And I just wanna say, this is, like, the best draft PSA I can give again, and I, I understand I'm repeating myself, but in a draft that is going to be wacky tomorrow, especially, but there could be so many trades as well. 42:11 And if there's, if there's multiple trades, if there's even one trade, for goodness sakes, but if there's multiple trades, all of this pontificating we're doing becomes even more ridiculous right after a certain number. 42:20 So I do think, and, and I will say this honestly, we did the, I did the Beating the Book draft podcast with Drew and Luke yesterday. 42:28 I don't remember ever doing a podcast on any subject, football, baseball, you name it, Vegas lifestyle, whatever it was, where it came to a point yesterday where I was like-- And we've done draft pods before. 42:39 We could talk about it for hours. Yesterday was the first time where, like, after 45 minutes, I'm like, "I don't think there's anything else to say." Yeah, you, you're exactly 42 minutes. Yeah. 42:47 I don't know, uh, 'cause we literally at this point, we're just- We're just guessing, right? So I think with that draft, I'll say it one more time, 42:57 I'm, I'm gonna debate whether to make more bets and, uh, take a team like the Commodores, right? The Washington, uh, Taco Holders. 43:04 I'm gonna have to say Commanders at some point because they did get to the NFC Championship last year, so I may have to adopt Commanders finally. But take a team like that, they're picking 29th. 43:13 Defensive line edge is plus 165. So these are the positional, team per position, what, what you draft. Just as, take the Commanders for, you know, an example. Defensive line edge plus 165. 43:24 Offensive lineman, uh, plus 340 right after that. I just lost it now. Um- [laughs] But you go from, you go from team to team, right? And my, my point being, right, there's nothing wrong with plus 340. 43:38 That's like winning a bet on the, uh, you know, the Rockies against the Dodgers. You would go crazy if you, you'd be so happy if you won that bet. Well, 43:48 if the draft goes a certain way and there's a run on defensive linemen, it would... Adam Peters and, and Washington, they have no idea how the draft's gonna go before them. 43:57 It is just as likely for them to pick an offensive lineman as it is for them to pick a defensive lineman based on how the draft goes before them. And by the way, a lot of mocks speculate that they might go wide out. 44:07 Emeka Egbuka, for instance, from Ohio State, that's nine to one to go wide receiver. So it doesn't have to be Washington, I'm just using them as an example. 44:14 It's what I did with New Orleans, uh, based on a conversation with Luke Swain from last week. 44:19 That's probably, if I do add something, it's going to be in that realm, 'cause I just think that's the only way to play this draft at this point. 44:27 I'm sorry it's not more of a, uh, precise thing with this draft, but that's just how the cookie crumbles this year in what I think is probably, like, a, generally speaking, not the greatest draft in terms of overall talent. 44:37 Uh, we've done all we can do. Thank you, Wyatt. Appreciate it as always. Stormy is next, uh, along with Grace. Money Moves coming up right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy.
