Search
Login
Sign Up
Apr 9, 2026
A Number's Game | April 9, 2026 | Hour 2
A Number's Game | April 9, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
45:09
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158.
0:17
Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlen on this Thursday morning, first round of the Masters, the 90th Masters at Augusta. Bryson DeChambeau, Kelly, for, uh, this for par? That for par or for birdie? What'd he do there?
0:32
I don't know. I don't know. They're, they're, they're doing the cutaway highlights. Yeah... so they're confusing it. That was for par, by the way, Bryson even through three.
0:38
So far at the Masters this morning, by the way, and we, by the way, Zach Cohen still to come on the show, Carl Sack on the NBA. Looking forward to that.
0:44
Zach's got tennis, Sack's got basketball, uh, as well, and then, uh, Joe Sheehan on Major League Baseball. We haven't even talked any baseball this morning, which we'll get to momentarily.
0:54
Overreactions, MLB early season reactions coming up in just a couple minutes. Uh, once again, Tom... Now, now we have co-leaders atop the leaderboard at the Masters.
1:02
Through four, both Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Reed, three under through four, on a morning where the real winner, to be honest with you, is the course itself. Only 13 golfers are under par.
1:15
A little more than half the field is teed off. Only 13 golfers under par.
1:20
It is firm, it is fast, and when you round that into the back nine, those first few holes of the back nine, it's like that old, remember that old Max Homa tramp- Remember that time I was joking about Homa hit the ball on the green that one time and, uh, Hootie, uh, activated the trampoline effect- Yeah, yeah...
1:37
on the green, so he couldn't win? It feels like that could be the case here all day. And who knows, maybe all weekend at the Masters. No rain expected. It's dry.
1:46
And, uh, right now the course, in the early going anyway, certainly doing its trick. But not to Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Reed, who are both three under through four.
1:54
One stroke lead over José María Olazábal, who is hanging tough, Kurt Kitayama, and Akshay Bhatia, two under through four, Kelly. You think he's gonna be one of the more interesting names to watch this week.
2:06
Took the, took the...
2:08
I think people would be ta- people would've been talking about him a lot more leading into this tournament if he didn't decide to go over to India last week to play in the event over there, which is He- uh, Hero, which is his sponsor, sponsors the event.
2:21
He f- flies all the way over to India to play in that one instead of going to the Valero.
2:26
Um, and, yeah, look, I think rightfully so, I was one of those people, too, that you're kind of like, "Yeah, that travel back," he missed the cut over there.
2:33
Um, I think there was a lot of excitement about Akshay a few weeks ago that just died down because of that. We got Sweet Speed in the book. Uh, this is from Harold Irving.
2:41
He says, "Your Vern Lundquist yesterday and your Bill Cosby today were spot on." [laughs] Thank you very much. What'd I say from Lu- Oh, yes, sir. Chris Heath, "Exactly, Kelly, it must have been..."
2:49
Oh, this is, uh, Chris Heath talking about his account, where they max bet Cameron Young, and he didn't think that he did that.
2:56
He's, "Exactly, it must have been a misclick, 'cause it was the max allowed minus what I had already staked." There you go. Yeah. Uh, Dr. Van Nostrand, "Yes, although read quickly, that sounded too personal."
3:07
What was he referring to? I have no idea. What did I say that was too personal? Uh, Dave Ross chiming in, "Rules for society. If Shay had three and Jokic had one, I wonder what the odds would be." Sure. Fair question.
3:24
If Shay had thr- What are we talking about here? MVP trophies. Oh, if Shay had three and Jokic had one, I wonder what the odds would be. That's kind of what we're talking about. That, that's exactly right.
3:31
It's just voter fatigue. Which is so stupid. Mm-hmm. Was there voter fatigue when Barry Lamar, Barry Lamar Bonds won his fifth, sixth, and seventh MVP? No, 'cause he's Barry Lamar Bonds.
3:42
Yeah, but now we all got Twitter and everything. We can talk to each other about it all day. So dumb. New York Mets 16, Scott, "Jokic was 14, 15, and 10 after three quarters on five of eight shooting.
3:52
He sat out all the fourth, of course, because I had 50 plus PRA, LOL. My palm is itching just thinking about it." Matt at Warrior 13, "Local media can't figure out who they are rooting for to play against.
4:03
City is buzzing. #hornets." [laughs] Oh, I see. They're, they're, they're not used to- As they should be, man... they're not used to this. Yes. Yeah. No, I'm, I'm excited for...
4:13
I mean, how, I, how many Hornets fans do you know? Uh, let me count. Zero. I was just gonna say- Yeah... I don't know a single one. Yeah. So for you, those of you that are out there, I am rooting hard for you.
4:23
It's g- it should be fun. Which is, which is different from the Muggsy, Alonzo Mourning, Grandma Ma days, where they had a lot of fans back then. Mm-hmm. Uh, Chance- J- just think about the difference in narratives, too.
4:35
When you start thinking about, okay, Boston's one thing, right? Detroit's another thing with the Cade injury. New York and Cleveland sports talk radio- Oh...
4:43
all day for four months have been like, "Is this team ever gonna get it together?" And Charlotte since January 1st has just been like, "What is going on here? This is incredible." [laughs] Is this, is this something?
4:54
Chance Copper Pot, "MVP is supposed to be valuable. You take SGA off the Thunder, they're still pretty damn good. Take Jokic off the Nuggets, they might be in the play-in tourney. Also, can we get more Cosby voice?
5:04
Read the next tweet like that," he says. [laughs] Read the next tweet. Telling me how to read the next tweet. [laughs] I'm very on the, I'm very often on the same page with Chance.
5:12
Eh, I'll put, I'll disagree a little bit here. I think that is... The, the on/off numbers would tell you something differently as far as Shay and Wemby are both ahead of Jokic on there.
5:21
Jamal Murray is a, has having a very good season. I don't know about that. Hmm. Y- you all gotta keep in mind how injured the Thunder b- has been, have been the entire season, too.
5:32
Matt also adds, "Hard to believe the baseball season's already one-sixteenth of the way over. Go Reds." Yeah, all the teams at the top of the March, April, and April categories all lost yesterday.
5:42
Dodgers lost, Yankees lost, Brewers lost, Reds lost. So no change at the top. Dodgers still the team on the doorstep of race to 10, even though I don't think they play today. Um, Reds do here.
5:55
Reds start in about an hour and a half. So looking forward to that as the Reds try to get their ninth win. Uh, this is from Jason H11: "Is it me or is the Masters one of the most frustrating events to bet?
6:05
You always have more bets than you should, and after round one it seems like most are already toast."
6:09
We definitely have more bets than we should, and that has everything to do with, again, they're up for the entire winter. Although that didn't apply to me. I just couldn't take it anymore. Mm. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
6:18
I started making bets this week. Brian M: "I went to Denver for freshman year. They have the most collegiate skiing championships. Not that anyone has ever heard who wins ski titles." There you go.
6:28
There's something to hang their hat on. Colin Murphy: "Loyola, Maryland, Syracuse, Virginia, also college lacrosse powerhouses. Maryland, Notre Dame, and Duke have been good in recent years as well."
6:37
Yeah, Johns Hopkins, though, they, they gotta be included. Mark Van Kino: "Placed a Michigan bet to win the NCAA Hockey Championship on December 5th at 50 to 1." Man. All right, man.
6:50
Oh, he has a Michigan/Michigan parlay. He had them in basketball and in hockey to pay 50 to 1. I'm sorry. So it was the both. It was the parlay that pays 50 to 1.
6:59
He has the Michigan hockey team at five to one, and he had Michigan the basketball team at plus 750 to pay 50 to one. So he is two games away from that c- from that cashing.
7:10
And then Scott adds, "I can agree that Avdi has a steady progression, which would lead me toward Jaylen Johnson. Just my opinion." There's the most improved. All right. Baseball, early season.
7:19
We just said 1/16th of the way through. It's not quite 1/10th of the way through. 1/16th of the way through. 10 games, not quite out of 162. We have some early season overreactions or not, sir. Yes.
7:31
What are the, what are the questions? So Danny and I were kind of r- jotting these down. I, I didn't realize we put question marks at the end of it. I was gonna go, "Statements." So I'll go, I'll, I'll put it- Oh...
7:38
I'll go into question voice. Okay. This is more of the bold statement from Kelly's, and we'll see if, uh, Gill, uh, if this is an overreaction or not, okay? Mm-hmm. The Red Sox will finish last in the AL East.
7:50
Uh, question mark? [laughs] Question mark? Don't worry, we can have some fun with this. It is, it is not as outlandish as people think it is. And this, again, a lot of people were really bullish on the Red Sox.
8:02
Joe Peta was not. He was his favorite season win total under. And I kinda sided with Joe. Um, the Red Sox will finish last is an overreaction 'cause it's such a bold statement, but I don't think it's an impossibility.
8:16
Okay. Yeah. Tarrik Scubal, well-documented struggles out of the gate. No shot to win AL Cy Young. That's stupid. Of course he has a shot. I'd say he's still the favorite. Okay.
8:26
Uh, the Marlins- As Paul pointed out, Paul Sport yesterday, with the cold weather you, you gotta throw out the cold weather start. Oh, yeah. You just gotta throw that out, the last one. That's...
8:37
Yeah, yeah, that's, uh, that's tough. Okay. The Marlins will finally trade Sandy Alcantara this season. I think that's going to happen. I think that is not an overreaction. I think that will happen.
8:46
Uh, that thing we talked about yesterday where the manager yanked him two outs shy of a back-to-back shutout or...
8:56
And also a back-to-back Maddox would be the first time in a quarter century that anybody had a back-to-back Maddox. Um, that did not make Alcantara happy. It's been boiling over.
9:08
Uh, you know, I think the Marlins are not gonna be a contender at the deadline. I think they will trade him, yes.
9:14
Gil, you know who has just as many wins, if not more, than the Red Sox are the Rockies, White Sox, and Nationals. They'll all go over their win totals? No. Question mark? They will...
9:24
No, they will not all go over their win total. [laughs] No. I had, I had fun with this. Although the Rockies have been awesome, really, by, by relatively speaking. They're six and six, right?
9:35
Yeah, relatively speaking they've been awesome. But no. What was their win total again? 54 and a half. Wild. Okay. Uh, this one from Danny, who obviously is tracking this stuff more than I am.
9:47
You, you said, "Will they all go over?" Not the Rockies. Yes. All of them. Yeah. Yep. Nope. Yankees pitching tat- staff will continue to be dominant? [laughs] With a question mark.
9:56
Um, well, I mean, Max Fried and Schlittler at the top have been awesome. So right there at the top, that one too is just... I mean, I think that will continue for both of them. Will the rest of it continue?
10:11
I, I don't know. I mean, the, that bullpen, that bullpen was pretty interesting last year 'cause a lot of people thought they sucked when they really... I never looked at it that way.
10:18
I thought they actually had a pretty su- a pretty stacked bullpen. So if that all gels, that... I mean, they got some names back there in that bullpen, right? So I, I just think that that's a...
10:30
Will Warren has been serviceable here in the early going as a starter also. I- Will it continue to be dominant? I'll say yes. Okay. I like it. Yeah. And just hand the Dodgers the NLS title now.
10:43
Did you skip the other one on purpose? I, I couldn't see around the camera. Oh. Sorry. That's, that's what was the little head. Yes. Just hand- That's what it was... yes. Just hand the Dodgers the NLS now. Yes. Okay.
10:51
And then lastly- Not an overreaction... the Guardians will win the AL Central? Overreaction. Stop it already with the Guardians. It's too early. Although they are off to a good start, I will say that.
11:02
Guardians, uh- Against good competition... top of the standings at eight and five. No, that's an overreaction. That one's over. Let, let everybody pipe down. How'd we do?
11:11
Did we miss a- did we miss any classic overreactions from the s- start of the season so far? No, you did pretty well there. You did very well. Um, there's, there's... I mean, baseball's fascinating with this stuff.
11:21
Joe Sheehan- Oh, really is, yeah... will join us later. We, we can ask him some of these as well. Um, maybe he's listening. Maybe he's got things to say about the, uh, the overreactions. We'll come back.
11:30
Zach Cohen will join. He's got a bunch of tennis today, Monte Carlo and Linz, Austria, and he's got a whole bunch of NBA as well. Maybe we'll ask him about those awards markets- Mm-hmm... where he stands on those. Yeah.
11:40
If he thinks those are bets, the ones we've talked about. It's a numbers game at VSiN. V Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge.
11:54
That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you.
12:04
VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use. No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets.
12:11
Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro.
12:21
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget the website in full effect mode, vsin.com. Greg Peterson's MLB best bets on there as well.
12:36
Last minute Masters picks, Zach Cohen's tennis best bets. Zach will join us here momentarily. And then coming up today, a little later on, updated DRF Kentucky Derby watchlist. [clears throat] Pardon me.
12:47
Steve Makinen's NBA and MLB analytics reports, and a Masters round one recap with round two best bets. All of that at vsin.com. Don't forget, you can get VSiN Pro for just 9.99 for your first 30 days. Vsin.com/subscribe.
13:02
Speaking of the, uh, Masters leaderboard, uh, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Reed tied atop the, uh, leaderboard, three under through four. One stroke lead over Olazabal. O- Olazábal, pardon me, Castellano pronunciation.
13:15
Olazábal, who is two under through 11. He is really hanging. Yeah. Good for him. Uh, Kurt, Kurt Kitayama's also two under, uh, through eight. Akshay Bhatia two under through four. Uh, that's your leaderboard.
13:27
And then there's a, uh, five other golfers at one under. Again, very early going of the Masters, but that's where it stands right now. Fitzy and Cameron Young both one over par. Oh, there you go.
13:39
You got an updated board. I think mine, mine froze on me. That's fun. But I'm not, you know what? I am actually, I feel like I'm very level-headed when it comes to starts of golf tournaments. There's a long way to go.
13:49
Oh, there's a long way to go. Long way. If you, uh, if you get the VSiN++ subscription, you can, uh, hear Dave Ross during the breaks of By the Books giving Jensen three-minute updates on the entire leaderboard.
14:00
[laughs] Jensen's thrilled every break. [laughs] He's never trying to do anything else.
14:04
Oh, also at one under was, the whole, the whole group at one under is McCarty, Burns, Taylor, Dustin Johnson, and Rory I have at one under. Yep. Yeah. Rory is one under through two. Yeah. Okay.
14:15
Uh, I do, you brought up Akshay earlier. I mean, Kurt Kitayama, he's another one, two under through eight.
14:20
Uh, Kurt Kitayama, no matter what you do, here, here it is again, everybody get ready to drink 'cause I'm gonna say it. One of the best ball strikers on tour, uh, just gets it done off the tee and on approach.
14:29
Ball striker, drinking game. Mm-hmm. 10 golfers under par at this point. It's gonna be interesting. This is US Open scoring. We'll see by the end of the day if that's, if that's what this ends up being.
14:42
I think I'm gonna be angry that I never played over the, the final score. Yeah. Fe- Fezzik was, Fezzik, who's on tomorrow, Fezzik was saying in, in the group chat- I caught, he was on under...
14:52
he, he led the under, and I just didn't understand the logic of it. I'm like, "Dude, that ball's gonna be bouncing everywhere." I actually think the- Yeah... the man we have standing by- Yeah...
15:01
actually has a prop bet on this final score. Oh, he does. He, he texted me I think a little ashamed to, to admit that he bets this every year.
15:08
[laughs] And I was like, I was like, "Usually I'd make fun of you," but they, they, they talk about this, like exact pro- I, I won't spoil it.
15:14
It's not Zach and Crack today, it's Zach and Sack, Carl Sack, a little later on the show with, uh, Crack traveling. But Zach Cohen, he keeps his spot on the show today. Joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
15:25
Follow him on Twitter at Betting On X. He's here to talk tennis, to talk basketball with us, but you have this golf bet. Is that correct? Do you do this every year? That, that actually is not correct.
15:36
I do a, I do a pool every year, and the tiebreaker for the pool is guessing what the final score will be. Oh. Oh. Yeah.
15:42
And, [laughs] and so it's really not even close, but I did just give it, what do I do, minus 13 or something like that. Do you enjoy when Kelly just makes up stuff about you, Zach?
15:50
Do you enjoy when that happens on the show? It's fine. Yeah. He can do it. As long as it's not completely untrue, it, we, we're good with it. As long...
15:55
If I didn't come on today, then you guys would've been able to get away with it. That's right. Gil, I totally misread that text message then. Yeah. [laughs] I believe it was 12 under.
16:03
Anyways, I'm gonna follow through with this and say that I would normally make fun of any type of exact bet like that, except for all you hear every single year from player interviews is like, "Well, they're clearly designing the course to be right in that range of, like, a 10, 11, 12 under."
16:18
Yeah. Well, we might get there. Sure doesn't look that way early, but we might get there eventually.
16:23
Zach, um, first of all, let me just say, Zach, all of his stuff at vsin.com, regardless of the sport that he is, uh, betting on, write-ups on all kinds of sports. Tennis, we're in the early part of clay season.
16:34
The men, it's actually a 1,000. I mean, it's a big tournament in Monte Carlo. Upsets left and right. The ladies are on indoor clay in Linz, Austria. You don't hear that every day.
16:45
Uh, what are the bets that you still have that have yet to start? Uh, well, I believe it has not yet started. I do have Hubi Hurkacz to beat Valentin Vacherot today at plus 126.
16:55
Uh, Vacherot's playing in his home tournament. He said a, a couple days ago that he'd rather win in Monte Carlo than win a Grand Slam, but I do think- Wow...
17:03
this is a really tough matchup for him because this is a guy that I, I think has been tremendous this season after, you know, winning Shanghai last year, really bursting onto the scene and becoming, like, a top 30 player, and he is a legitimate top 30 player.
17:15
But he does have shaky moments on serve and I believe a, you know, a weaker forehand than people might think, and I think that Hurkacz is just a player that is going to be able to get through his service games pretty easily 'cause Vacherot's not a great returner.
17:28
And I think at the very least you're looking at some sets that go to tiebreakers or 7-5 situations. So I'd rather have the dog in this match. You're also on Joao Fonseca as, as a dog against, uh, Sasha Zverev.
17:39
I looked up at the scoreboard, this is a true story, we're coming into work yesterday, so this is right around 7:00 AM, a little, it's a couple minutes before 7:00 AM. Um, let you know when I get here, by the way.
17:48
That's where Gil starts his commute to work. [laughs] With the... [laughs] That's when I start, that's right, that's when I start my commute.
17:53
Um, and Zverev, I, I swear this was the case, he was down 5-2 in the third to Cristian Garin, and somehow he came back in that, I, I suppose. Yes. It was a, a massive comeback.
18:05
I saw some people get in live on Zverev and make a ton of money.
18:09
But, uh, yeah, a little bit shocking that he went down that score against Garin, who is a solid clay court player, but really hasn't been a presence on the ATP tour in, like, years now.
18:18
And I do think that Zverev is in danger of losing to Fonseca here. I think if you look at some of the work that Fonseca's done over the last couple tournaments, it's been pretty insane.
18:29
I mean, the two losses he suffered were a nail-biter against Jannik Sinner Uh, and then a close match against Carlos Alcaraz. Like, the only two players that have beaten him have been the two best players in the sport.
18:40
And today against Berrettini, I thought it was one of the best matches that I've seen him play in terms of returning.
18:46
So I think he's going to be prepared for this match against Zverev, where I also think that his, like, weapon of a forehand is going to be kind of the X factor, 'cause if he's hitting to the Zverev forehand, that is a major advantage for the Brazilian.
18:58
You have, you have more onions than I do going strong into these early clay court tournaments, 'cause my numbers are, haven't manifested yet. I, I was, I was looking, and it was the other one.
19:07
Berrettini beat Medvedev 6-love, 6-love. What was that? Yeah. Yeah, I had Berrettini to win a set in that match, and I sprinkled the money line as well, but I did not really expect an outright win.
19:18
I thought it would be a close match that, you know, could've gone either way. But that was insane. I mean, Berrettini has always played well at Monte Carlo, but I did not expect that type of performance from Medvedev.
19:29
And you kind of got the throwback, like, mental breakdown on court and complaining about the conditions where, you know, he's usually been pretty good on clay over the last couple years.
19:37
Like, I thought that he had made kind of a complete 180, and you know, he has the new coaching staff. But now you have to look at Medvedev as a guy that potentially fade moving forward in clay season. Yes, you do.
19:47
Never, never a fan of clay, that guy, that's for sure. Uh, so you're on Orcas and Fonseca, two dog prices. Orcas against Vacherot, Fonseca against Sascha Zverev.
19:56
And on the ladies' side you have a hamburger bet on Jelena Ostapenko. Yeah. I- Gabriella Ruse is a player that I backed a lot this season, but Ostapenko is just really good on clay.
20:06
I know she has a couple wins over Iga on this surface. You know, people will say that's just kind of her being driven by that rivalry, but she is just a dangerous player on the dirt because she is just so powerful.
20:17
And if there's any kind of weakness in her game, it would probably be her movement.
20:21
But when you put her in slower conditions and she has time on the ball, she's just going to rip winners throughout the course of the entire match. So I think this is a really good kind of spot for her.
20:30
And like you said, it's an indoor clay court tournament, unique, but i- it's going to help her out quite a bit playing, you know, on a slower surface, but also in, you know, conditions that will allow her power to kind of manifest itself.
20:41
And did you happen to catch, uh, I don't know if you're familiar, that, uh, Jessie Pegula, Jen Brady, Maddie Keys, and I forget the doubles player's name. She's a r- real cute girl.
20:51
The four of them do a podcast, and they were talking about these videos that are out of Rafa coaching up Iga on clay. Oh, yes. Did you see this? I was- Yes, it's so good. Where Pegula's like, "That should be illegal."
21:01
She's, she's like, "Yeah, this is, this is not fair. This can't be." [laughs] I cannot wait to see the return of Iga on clay. It's gonna be awesome. Uh, okay. Yeah.
21:10
Before we get to your NBA plays, which we'll save those for after the break, but in these two minutes here, Kelly and I were just going through some awards and I was saying, "I think I'm going..."
21:17
I, I am not involved in any of these. We have two, three games left in the NBA season, and I said, "I think I'm betting Kon Knipple now at plus 185 or whatever best price I can get.
21:26
I think I'm betting Joe Mazzulla at north of $2." Would you agree with those? Yeah, I agree with both. I mean, I think that the Knipple flag race, like, shouldn't even be a race.
21:36
Like, if you look at the numbers both traditional and advanced, I don't really think that there is an argument to even be made for flag.
21:43
I think that people are just kind of getting crazy about the two performances he had, what, three and four games ago, where he had 50 points, he had 46 points.
21:51
No one seems to be talking about the fact that he really struggled against the Clippers two nights ago in a 25-point performance, and then last night against the Suns he was completely invisible.
21:59
It seems to only be the good that is being talked about. But man, like, you look at the entire year, and Knipple's been more efficient as a scorer.
22:07
He's been way better when you look at the advanced numbers, and he's playing for a playoff team. I think that Knipple should win the award.
22:12
I think that maybe the price change that we've seen over the last few days is just the books protecting themselves from heavy public action after the 50-point performance. We cannot emphasize this enough.
22:23
This to me, I, I don't know that we've ever had as stark an example of this. I don't think this reflects reality at, at all. And the fact is, the way that our brains work, we stare at this market price- Mm-hmm...
22:32
for as long as we do, and we start to think that somehow this is, oh, it's gotta be real, right? Yeah. If Cooper Flagg's minus 260, he's gonna win this. I don't think it's the case at all. Don't think it is at all.
22:41
Are you sticking with, are, you came on, like, a week ago and, and you bet Avdia for most improved. You, you feeling bad about- I mean- What are you feeling about that right now? I don't feel terrible about it.
22:51
You could do way better than the number that I did. I got it at 20 to 1. I think there's 50 to 1 out there.
22:55
But I still think, like, if you believe that these voters can be swayed so easily with these flag performances, why not, you know, think that they're gonna look at the end of the year and look at some of the numbers and just say, "Oh, this guy made the biggest jump"?
23:06
Man, I would love to see that. Would love to see that. Not involved at this point, but maybe you're convincing me. Zach's NBA plays tonight on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:16
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Mitlin.
23:34
Kelly, we have a three-way tie at the top of the Masters leaderboard. Can I interest you in a three-way tie? Yeah, you can. Uh, it's Patrick- Who you got? It's Patrick Reed, it's Tommy Fleetwood.
23:42
They're both three under through five. I'm not that interested anymore. Kurt Kitayama. There you go. Three under through nine. Kurt Kitayama joins the top of the leaderboard.
23:52
Again, a, a leaderboard that only has, you know- Oh, man... not that many golfers under par. Jose Maria Olazabal and Sam Burns are one shot back at two under. Olazabal through 12, Burns through eight.
24:06
And then two back at one under, a, uh, a bevy of golfers. Can I call them a bevy? Mm-hmm. Uh, Knapp is there. Let's go, Jake. Your guy, Jake Knapp. Let's go, Knapster. Turn it on here. Uh, Haotong Li.
24:20
Haotong Li, who is struggling early. Birdies 13, eagles 15, gets him to one under par. Yeah. Uh, Nick Taylor, Dustin Johnson, Akshay Bhatia, Xander Schauffele, your boy Alex Noren And Brian Campbell.
24:36
All of those guys one under. Everybody else even par or worse. All the way down to, oh boy. Aldr- Aldr- Oh man, Shane Lowry fell off of... He was, he was under par for a while there. He double bogeys four. Yeah.
24:51
Bogey six. He's one over par now. Patrick Cantlay one over. Boy, Fitz, Fitzpatrick, Henley, Cameron Young, all big names people bet on this week, one over par right now. Aldrich Putt-Guider just wants to leave.
25:04
He is, uh- Yikes. Double digits. Yeah, he's 11 over through 12. He's at the bottom of the leaderboard. He, he double bogeyed one to start.
25:17
Bogeyed five, bogeyed six, doubled seven, doubled eight, bogeyed 11, double bogeyed 12. Is that good? Seven, he's having himself a, whatever the opposite of a day is. Mm-hmm. You know. Um, that's where that stands.
25:35
Scottie Scheffler yet to tee off. He will tee off at about, uh, 10:44 Pacific, 1:44 Augusta time, 1:44 Eastern. I'm beyond fascinated to see what we get out of him. Me too.
25:45
I don't even know who I'm looking forward to the most. I think Rory. You know who I'm looking forward to the most, Kelly Bidlin? Sitting on my couch. Don't call me, I'll call you. Yeah. Can't wait. Get some food.
25:56
Sit there. Don't move, don't even move. Zach Cohen, kind enough to join us. I almost called him Zach Taylor for a second. Zach Cohen joins us once again, kind enough to join us for a second.
26:04
Anyway, sorry about that, Zach, to even think that. To c- to put you in the same sentence as Zach Taylor, I apologize. Uh, @BettingOnX where you can follow Zach on Twitter. Uh, what about the NBA tonight?
26:14
You have some prop bets. You have some, uh, I think some sides as well, yes? Yeah, I have a couple of plays for tonight. Uh, the prop bet is Jabari Smith Jr. over 14.5 points at -120.
26:26
Uh, that, uh, Rockets versus 76ers game. Smith has just been really good for Houston lately, scoring 15 plus in seven of the last eight games. Uh, he's actually had 20 plus in four of those seven.
26:37
And this Philly team, they can be solid defensively, but they're just 20th in the NBA this season defending catch-and-shoot jumpers, which is where a bulk of Smith's, you know, points come from.
26:47
And this is also a team that can struggle to defend in transition, and Smith is a threat in transition. So I think he keeps it up.
26:54
Uh, that's also a game I'm really looking forward to because Houston kind of quietly has won seven straight with one of those being against the Knicks, one of them being against the Warriors, and then another, a, a blowout win over the Suns.
27:04
They're playing, playing pretty well at the right time. Jabari Smith Jr. over 14.5 points for the Rockets today against the Sixers.
27:09
Jabari Smith, who turned out to be a pretty solid draft pick, uh, towards the top, uh, towards the top of the draft a couple years back. He's fine. He's fine. Should be better for where he got drafted, I think. Yeah.
27:19
Uh, that's why- He's fine... that's why I use the word solid. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Solid's kind of dam- damned, uh, faint praise. Mm-hmm. But, but, but solid. Solid.
27:28
If the Rockets ever win a championship with this group, though, he's like a rotational piece almost at this point. He's, yeah. Eh, that's probably unfair to say. It's probably unfair to say. Not rotational. Yeah, yeah.
27:36
But he's, uh, not one of the top names, right? Um, this just in, they're not winning. Uh, okay, and then the Knicks and the Celtics, how are you playing this tonight? Well, I took this last night, and it's moved a ton.
27:46
I had the Knicks -138 on the money line. This is a bigger play for me. Uh, I probably would still lay three and a half if I had to, but all the motivation in this game is on the New York side.
27:56
The Knicks really need to kind of hold off the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference standings, and they are coming off two full days of rest.
28:03
The Celtics have a bunch of guys on the injury report, uh, between Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Neemias Queta.
28:09
I think that they're gonna sit some of those players because they just need one more win in order to lock up the number two seed, and they face the Pelicans on Friday.
28:16
I'm sure they're thinking about, you know, getting out of this game healthy, maybe winning that one in a stress-free game Friday night. And, you know, I, I do think that that's gonna be the way that they go.
28:24
And New York has been very good since the All-Star break, and they've been especially good at home, 7-2 with a plus 13.1 net rating. So I do really like this spot for the Knicks.
28:34
Uh, if you have to lay the four and a half, I think I'd do that as well. All right.
28:37
Mark Borchardt, one of our baseball guys, base winner, he comes on here, and he's, he's gotten a reputation, he kind of has embraced it, of doing parlays when he's on the show.
28:46
Lest I, da- dare I say that Zach Cohen may, may start to have this reputation. You have another parlay for us today.
28:54
Yeah, I do a lot of these alternate line parlays, which I, I think that if you just kind of search around for, you know, all the shops available to you, you generally find some really good prices, at least way better than, like, the teaser numbers that they throw out there if you do actually click the teaser option.
29:08
So if you try to, you know, click around a little bit, you might find some really good stuff.
29:12
And I, I did find Heat alternate plus seven and a half versus the Raptors with Lakers plus seven and a half versus the Warriors. That's plus 148.
29:21
And with both teams, I was looking at the sides originally, decided to back off, but with the few extra points, I think that I like it.
29:28
So with Miami, they did lose pretty big in Toronto the other night, but these two game baseball sets, we generally see them go the other way when there's a really bad performance, and the Heat did have the classic, uh, players only meeting after that blowout in Toronto.
29:42
So you could at least expect some better effort here, and I do expect Bam Adebayo to be a lot better than he was last game.
29:48
I think he was, like, two for 13 from the floor in Toronto the other night, and I actually think the center spot is where Miami has one of their biggest advantages over Toronto.
29:56
Then with the Lakers and Warriors, Steph is questionable. Uh, they are playing tomorrow night.
30:01
I would not be surprised if they sit him out tonight, opt to play him tomorrow, because really, they're not playing for anything. They're pretty locked into that 10 seed. There's no upward mobility at all.
30:10
The Lakers actually do need to try to fight off the Rockets for the four because that will determine who ends up hosting that series, and Los Angeles does, you know, uh, we know they're gonna be missing Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves for at least a couple of games.
30:23
But if they can win a game at home, get those guys back for game three, they have a chance of winning their first round series. I feel like I, I, I have the obligation to ask this question.
30:31
Is this the first year, um, if, if the Warriors dynasty was on a graph, and it goes up, and then, by the way, remember there was that slight dip, and then it kept go- and then it went up again, which is very rare for dynasties, um- Is this the first year where it's not even interesting?
30:46
Like, even if they got out of the play-in, there's just nothing to talk about with them. Yeah. I was actually saying this to Jonathan Vontobel on Harvard Handicappers today, which we recorded this morning.
30:56
I, I don't even think they're gonna win a p- a play-in game. Like, I- Yeah... I think that, you know, it's tough to go against Stephen Curry in a one-game setting like that.
31:03
He is the one of the most dangerous players in basketball. But they do not have a shot in their first round series. They're just too banged up. I mean, you have- Yep...
31:10
a $50 million player in Jimmy Butler on the shelf right now. Uh, it was a team that was lacking, you know, shot creation to begin with, even when Jimmy was healthy. Maybe next year they find a way to retool this.
31:20
Like, I do think Butler, it sounds like he'll be back for the first game of next regular season.
31:25
They will find a way to improve the roster around Steph, if that's the priority, and he doesn't ask out, which I don't think he's going to.
31:31
But I, I do think that that's a team that will look a lot better next season, but it does seem dead this year. Who likes a conspiracy theory that the Warriors are gonna win the lottery? Let's go. Let's get it done.
31:40
Would love to see that. Uh- Well, at the very least they'll have another tradable pick, right? Like- Yep... a- another pick becomes available to them to move.
31:48
And, you know, it sounds like they were closer than we would've thought to getting Giannis, like, at the deadline. Maybe they can find a way to get that done in, in the off-season.
31:57
Uh, final question, 'cause I asked this of Drew earlier in the week, pardon me, and I asked this of Kelly earlier on the show. A first round NBA playoff series.
32:06
Now that you can kind of see, not with a 100% clarity, but we're kind of seeing how, uh, w- with the exception of the play-ins, we don't know who seven-eights are gonna be, but you can kind of see the three f- the, uh, three-sixes and the four-fives now certainly, and you can anticipate who might be two-sevens and one-eights.
32:22
Is there a playoff series in the first round where you can anticipate a series price that you are actually looking forward to because you see lots of value in that potential price?
32:36
I mean, I think I'm gonna end up being on the underdogs in the Eastern Conference with, with the Pistons facing potentially the 76ers or the Hornets, if that ends up being the match up.
32:47
I also would be interested in, like, if it's Knicks-Sixers.
32:51
There's so much that can change in the Eastern Conference, but I guess what I'm saying is I'm really high on both the 76ers and the Hornets, and I probably will have futures on both teams once I know they're actually in the 18 fields.
33:04
I've been saying all season long pretty consistently that there's a top four team in the Eastern Conference. It's the Celtics, Cavaliers, Knicks, and Pistons.
33:11
But I don't think that the drop-off is too big to the 76ers and Hornets from there, especially with Charlotte.
33:16
When you look at kind of the advanced numbers, since the start of January, that's been a team that's been a top three team in the Eastern Conference.
33:22
So I would not wanna be facing either one of those two if I'm one of the top seeds. And just to clarify, when you say futures on the Sixers or Hornets, are we talking Eastern Conference or the entire NBA? Y- yes.
33:32
Yeah, good question. To win the Eastern Conference. I think the winner of the, you know, the s- the NBA title will come from the Western Conference. Okay. Just checking. Just checking. Zach, appreciate it as always.
33:42
Uh, appreciate the, the baseball. Excuse me, the basketball, the tennis. I realize you're not betting the golf. Sorry for the, uh, the mischaracterization earlier. All good. Hopefully I win my pool, though. Yes.
33:54
Hopefully you win your pool. Yeah, hopefully. We're rooting for you. Zach Cohen, Betting on X on the Twitter machine, as Matt Brown would say. Thank you, Zach. Uh, we'll come back.
34:02
In addition to checking out some, the g- uh, I should say, the Masters leaderboard again, Joe Sheehan will join us, talk baseball. Carl Sack on the NBA. It's the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:13
[upbeat music] The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:29
Hey, Kelly, have you checked out the, uh, the duo over at Just Win bets, Baby? I have not yet, actually. Uh, Just Win bets Baby- Got some sweet hats, though. Yeah, you got some s- they did give us some sweet hats.
34:39
We appreciate that. Yes, justwinbetsbaby.com. You can scan the QR code for more on your screen.
34:44
Mathematical models and custom AI to find value across major sports, proven track record, futures and long shot winners, picks in English and Spanish, and a weekly live podcast at justwinbetsbaby.com.
34:57
We were fascinated by the picks in English and Spanish part of it. I'm, like, pretty confident you and I could do our best bets in español. Well, I just, uh, do they, again, do they say, "Oh, I, I'd take the Reds.
35:09
I would also take Los Rojos"? Like, do they do that? Yeah. El Heat. El Heat. Speed, but you know the, uh, UFC card is at, uh, the Kaseya Center there in Miami this weekend, UFC 327, where the Heat play. Wow, good on you.
35:26
Yeah. Right, but well, I'm f- The, the, the names- I'm quite familiar with that little neck of the woods, if you know what I mean, right by, uh, Bayside Mall- Yeah... down there in Miami.
35:33
So am I, but the na- the name's changed on the arena so many times, I don't know if I could've told you what it was called this year. Oh, I got a documentary recommendation. What do you got?
35:41
This has nothing to do with anything I was just talking about, it just popped in my head. 'Cause, 'cause I went from Kaseya Center in my head to Bayside Mall, and Miami is right next to that. Mm-hmm.
35:49
Remember there was this story where there was, like, aliens at the Bayside Mall? Anyway. So anyway, I thought about, like, uh, I just thought about documentaries and all kinds of stuff. Last night I watched The Untold,
35:59
uh, on the chess scandal called Chessmates. Oh, I didn't know there was a document- you mean the one that we, you and I covered every detail of? Oh, yes we did. And I mean every detail. And I mean every detail.
36:12
Magnus Carlsen and Hans Niemann, for those unfamiliar with the scandal that existed in the chess world. Oh, man, I am watching this for sure. You've gotta watch this.
36:21
This cr- it's, I, you know, I, I turned it on, I was like, "Let's see if this captures my attention." I was riveted. What, what's it called again? Chessmates, not checkmates, right? Chessmates. That makes... I like that.
36:31
It's clever. Untold. Uh, as good as Shooting Guards was, the untold about Gilbert Arenas and Javaris- Still haven't seen that one...
36:38
Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, the, the untold on them, Shooting Guards, was phenomenal. This is the chess one called Chessmates: Untold on Netflix. So good. Um, Magnus Carlsen-
36:49
Not only the number one chess player in the world, but largely considered perhaps to be the best chess player of all time- Mm-hmm... um, was beaten a couple times. You and I covered this extensively. Yes.
37:02
For those- Extensively... we were at the, we were at the South Point at the time, I believe. South Point or the D? One or the other.
37:08
I th- I wanna say it was the South Point, 'cause I can remember navigating through the words at that point. But anyway, um, Hans Niemann, this kid who was big on chess.com, which is, like, huge in the chess world,
37:21
this kid ends up beating Magnus Carlsen twice, and Magnus Carlsen, like, wasn't even almost upset about it. He was like, "Something is amiss." Yeah. "I could, I could tell that this wasn't
37:32
human decision-making across the board for me." And this kid, Hans Niemann, who beat him, is this brash American. Magnus Carlsen, Swedish, or Norwegian, I believe maybe. Um, but this kid, Hans Niemann- Norwegian. Yeah.
37:47
Norwegian, yes. Uh, m- this kid, H- Hans Niemann, had admitted to cheating at chess.com- Mm-hmm... when he was doing it online.
37:55
They couldn't find any evidence of him cheating in those two matches against Magnus Carlsen, and the point is, though, that... And by the way, Carlsen ended up beating Niemann finally in their third match.
38:08
But this kid, this brash American kid who had admitted to cheating online, but not in these two matches against Carlsen- That were in person? That were in person- Right, yeah...
38:15
above board, right, uh, uh, in, in person, face-to-face, so he's still brash about those two wins, and all the rumors about, "He must have cheated in those, too. How can you trust the guy?"
38:26
And that's when you and I stepped in to do our deep dive investigation on this matter. One of the massive rumors as to how he was cheating was that he had things inserted in a certain orifice of his body.
38:40
Is that a correct way of putting it? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Thanks. Signaling devices. You gotta watch it. But- It's fantastic... was there more confirmation on that? No.
38:49
Do, do you feel, do you feel that that is more or less likely now after you saw the documentary? That detail? Yeah. Less likely. Okay. Okay. Yes. 'Cause y- you, you are right.
38:57
If I'm remembering the story right, he did admit, right, to, like, running programs or something- Oh, yes... like, off to the side- They-... while he was playing onli- uh- They have a-... chess online...
39:05
they have amazing cheat detection at chess.com, and they caught him. Wow. They caught him. They, he had to confess.
39:11
Now, okay, did, als- also my follow-up, 'cause I brought up Magnus Carlsen on the show a couple days ago. I don't know if you remember. This was the, the, he took a selfie- Can we bet on any of these chess matches?
39:20
Oh, yeah, you can. Yeah, or you used to be able to. Yeah. Uh, this is a chess tournament, like, I don't know, a couple days ago.
39:27
Well, this lovely lady that ba- uh, that he's going to play, play against, she wants to take a selfie before the, before their match.
39:33
He takes a selfie and then reports her for having a cellphone 'cause you're not allowed to have a cellphone at the table. [laughs] It's ruthless out there, man. But, but he let her have her picture.
39:41
He let her have the picture and then, "See you later. I'm gonna take this W." We get tweets, a busy book. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody.
39:47
This is, uh, from, this is from- God, another, another solid chess segment by, uh, Numbers Game. Numbers Game. Just what everybody tweets in asking more for. You guys love it. Yeah.
39:55
You guys wanna talk Masters, you wanna talk NBA. No, not us. Nope. We, we, we zag when you zig. We go chess. This is John Balducci. He says, "Gil, young listeners have no idea who Grand Mama was.
40:07
[laughs] They're missing out." Yes, I shouldn't do that.
40:10
When I was referring to the old great Charlotte Hornets, great is maybe a hyperbole, but the very good Charlotte Hornets of yesteryear in the '90s, I referred to it as Muggsy Bogues, Alonzo Mourning, and Grand Mama.
40:22
I should probably point out that Grand Mama was an ad campaign that Larry Johnson participated in, the great UNLV Larry Johnson. Ah, Larry Johnson. Uh, Sam Ginsberg, "What are the odds on Barry Lamar Bonds for NBA MVP?
40:35
[laughs] Can he still win without playing enough games? So sorry to hear about Deborah's dad. Please give her my best wishes." Yes. That's very nice of you, Sam. Thank you.
40:42
Mick Brentley, "Every time I hear Carl Sack's name on the show, I always think he'd be a really good name for a Cosmo Kramer friend." Quote, "The other day I was golfing with my buddies Joe Saccomano and Carl Sack."
40:51
[laughs] Love you guys. Mike Alvarez, "Hey, guys. When you going to, uh..." Oh, this is interesting. "When you're going to have Sia Nejad on?" Well, we already had Sia on yesterday, Mike.
41:03
He goes, "When are you gonna have him on? Because, not for his great golf bets, but to see if his wife is leaving him for Rob Lowe. No shame in being left for Rob Lowe."
41:13
So this is, we, we were wondering what this was all about. Mm-hmm. And Sia's actually tweeting about this. Sia's wife is on some reality show called The Floor, hosted by Rob Lowe.
41:23
Uh, I think last night it was on a game show called The Floor- Oh, a game show... that I'm un- unfamiliar with. Yeah. A game show. I thought a reality show. What's the ga- Oh, okay. Well, yeah.
41:32
Well, that's for, from my, from my deep dive investigating by googling The Floor, that's what it told me. Okay. A game show.
41:38
Chance Copperbot, "Okay, fine, Kelly, if you're not gonna agree with me on my Jokic MVP ticket, can we at least agree we need more Gilly impersonations? Can I get Marv Albert Ron Burgundy-ing the tweets?
41:47
A boy can dream." Yes. Jesse Welch, "All right, fellas, I can now confirm I'll have a losing Masters." Listen to what he's got.
41:54
He goes, "I, I bet four golfers, Akshay, Reed, Xander, and Sungjae, along with a first-round leader on Reed. No shot this holds up for me, LOL." And Freedom, Kyle Manship5, "Is this a thing?"
42:08
He says, "Okay, the fake bird chirps are already annoying. Three and a half more days of this." Do they pipe in fake bird chirping at the Masters? Oh, I, man, I don't think so. Wow.
42:20
I say it like that only because after you read that tweet, now just, like, I feel like I do hear bird chirps all the time, but, I mean, I don't know. There's a lot of damn trees out there, and a lot of microphones.
42:29
We got a solo leader at the Masters now. Kurt Kitayama, four under through 10. One stroke lead over both Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Reed. Olazábal, Burns, and Brian Campbell two back. Kurt Kitayama staking his claim.
42:49
Yeah. Over half the field has teed off, and we have, uh, what's that? Uh, three, six, nine, 12, 14 golfers under par at this point Colin Morikawa even par through five. Did, he did tee off.
43:04
I know those were, uh, those rumors were flying last night and this morning if Morikawa was even gonna try to give it a go. He's trying. He's trying. Some other names, by the way, some notables.
43:13
You like the notables when people do that? Mm-hmm. Uh, Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele are at one under through six, both of those guys. Uh, Bryson DeChambeau even through six. Morikawa even through five.
43:27
Rory even through four. Sungjae Im even through three. Max Homa one over through 14. He's as far along as anybody in this. Um, Jason Day one over through six. Shane Lowry one over through six.
43:42
Hideki and Matt Fitzpatrick both one over through six. Cam Young one over through four. Patrick Cantlay one over through four. So, uh... And Viktor Hovland three over through four.
43:56
And your boy Keegan Bradley four over through eight. Tough season for Keegs. Oh, Max Grazerman is gonna make me have an eight-stroke penalty in our draft. He's five over through 12. Come on, Maxie.
44:08
Updated tournament odds. Scottie Scheffler plus 560. Tommy Fleetwood now your second shot at plus 770. These are over at DraftKings. Jon Rahm plus 960. Xander 10 to 1. Bryson DeChambeau 11 to 1.
44:24
He just dropped to 13 to 1. Uh, Patrick Reed 13 to 1 as well. Rory McIlroy 15. Ludwig 18. Kitayama 18.
44:33
Which- And everybody drops down to 30 from there The headline for me there is the Scheffler number without having even teed off, right? He doesn't tee off for another hour plus. Yep.
44:43
Without having teed off, nothing on this leaderboard has moved that at all either way. He's right about where he was pre-flop despite all the ongoing this morning.
44:54
Even par through four for Rory, and you can get 16 to 1 on him right now. We'll come back. Uh, the Reds play the Marlins in the fourth of a four-game set here in about 45 minutes.
45:03
A little note on the Reds pitcher that may trigger a bet for you this morning. Coming back.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
