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Dec 19, 2024
A Number's Game | HR 1 | 12.19.24
A Number's Game | HR 1 | 12.19.24
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45:01
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0:00
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0:27
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:37
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We don't care how you're taking us in, we just appreciate that you choose one.
0:46
Thank you for making us a part of your morning. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midlin. This is un partido de numeros, a numbers game- Si... right here at VSiN. Uh, how you doing, man? Muy bien, y tu?
0:56
[laughs] Muy bien, gracias. Should probably stop at some point. [laughs] Let's see how long Kelly can go. You start reciting your seventh grade, uh, dialogues. Uh, donde esta la biblioteca? [laughs] A donde vas?
1:09
To vas a clase? No. Voy a la oficina. Uh, we got a good show today. Crack unscripted. Bill Krackomberger unscripted second hour. Uh, he is, uh, invested in a Circus Survivor entry. Ba, ba, dum.
1:21
We'll probably end up talking some Survivor with him. Uh, Tim Murray will join us this hour, college football extravaganza. Of course, we got the, uh, the first round of the college football playoff this weekend.
1:33
One game Friday, three games Saturday. What a football weekend this is, man. This is great. I don't know if I'm mentally prepared for Saturday. That's a great point. It- I don't know if I am either...
1:42
a- and Gil, if I'm not, my mother sure isn't when I'm flying, uh, flying to see her. I've already warned her. I've warned her as best I could. Oh, dear.
1:50
I'm like, "I will be there as early as I can, but you gotta be prepared. I'm gonna be watching a lot of football." I'm flying into San Francisco for 36 hours and, and, uh, never saw a fashion stylist.
1:59
The two kids are there in San Francisco. Wait till they get a load of me for 36 hours. [laughs] That's gonna end well. Have you seen the Saturday schedule? Like, it is- Oh, it's r-...
2:09
it is like noon Eastern to midnight, basically. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, it's gonna be tough to navigate that one. Yeah. Yeah. Finesse, I believe that's what Bruno Mars was talking about. NFL power rankings.
2:20
We haven't done NFL power rankings this week, so we'll do that with some changes at the top for young Gil. How about for you? Changes at the top. Yeah. Uh, and Zach Cohen, as part of the Zach and Crack comedy duo.
2:30
Zach Cohen always, uh, comes in here as well, uh, on a Thursday, so that we call it Zach and Crack. That's not why we do it, because we love Zach. I shouldn't say that. The ne- It makes it sound terrible...
2:38
the next time one of us is out, though, we should, we, we should make Zach and Crack fill in for the entirety of the two hours, both of them. Two, you guys have to do two hours of comedy.
2:46
[laughs] Two hours of comedy, Zach and Crack. No, you do whatever you want. Yeah, do whatever you want, but it's you two together. Uh, we'll do all that on the show.
2:51
Uh, and with Tim Murray, not only will we talk about College Football Playoff games, but, uh, if he has any bets there, but also, uh, whether he has any bets on the college football bowl today, the two tomorrow, 'cause bowl season
3:03
still happening with all of this. You watch any of the Cal-UNLV game yesterday? Yeah, I caught, uh, I caught most of the Boca Bowl. No, that's a lie. I caught the second half. The Del Boca Vista Bowl.
3:13
These, these- That did go, it did go under, by the way. Did go under. It did go under. Yeah, a- another rainy Boca Bowl. Yeah... it's always something to- Yeah...
3:18
uh, I think keep in mind for years going forward, 'cause we, we've seen a couple of those bowls get sloppy over the years, and the, uh, Boca Bowl I've, uh, uh, attended a lot [laughs] Yeah, yeah. I guess fortunately.
3:29
[laughs] I was thinking about that yesterday. I was like, "That is the bowl game I've attended the single most times." Um- The, the Cal-...
3:34
and then the UNLV that- That game just became a, a mockery, though, when Cal's- Yeah... quarterback went out. Let, the, the backup quarterback could not play football. That was awful.
3:42
Yeah, I don't know about, I don't know what you did, if you did anything live. I, I was thinking about jumping in on UNLV, like, a couple times, and like, ended up staying away.
3:50
I didn't end up doing it, and I hate myself for not doing it. Yeah, me too. I know. He was inept. Yeah. Like, he, yeah, it was just, it, yeah.
3:55
Well, those were the- It's, luckily enough, Gil, it's, it's college football I don't get involved with enough to sit, like, I'm not gonna sit here like you just said.
4:01
Like, I'm not hating myself, but it's, it's still a missed opportunity. Oh, I have a large amount of self-loathing this morning because I didn't do that. That fake punt was pr- Yeah... uh, pretty sweet by UNLV.
4:10
It was pretty, it was a little push pass fake punt thing. Like, that's one of those, when you see some of these gimmick plays where you're like, "Well, you should do that way more often like that.
4:16
Why aren't the fake punts run like that way more often?" That actually kept UNLV in the game in the first half, really, that play. Yeah.
4:22
Um, anyway, bowl season continues, so, uh, we'll get Tim's thoughts on that, besides just the College Football Playoff. Uh, Denver and the Chargers tonight, Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime.
4:35
Um, where thankfully we don't have another sporting event, unless you're betting on another one that you have to toggle back and forth on. Um, Broncos-Chargers.
4:42
Broncos in with a win, into the playoffs with a win in this ball game. Uh, the Chargers, by the way, the Broncos can also get in a, uh, in with a loss this weekend if Cincinnati,
4:55
Indianapolis, and Miami also lose on Sunday, if all three. If they lose tonight, they can still get in if all three of those teams lose on Sunday. Chargers in with a win, plus an Indianapolis and Miami loss on Sunday.
5:07
So Broncos control their own destiny tonight. They win, they're in. That's the simplest of all that.
5:10
Um, as always, I like to, uh, to give a shout-out to, uh, usually to Sean Korner on the Action Network on Thursday mornings.
5:17
I always, uh, give a shout-out 'cause he, he's great with the stats, uh, with the advanced stats. It's not Sean Korner today, by the way, from the, uh, from the Action Network. Um- We'll let him have a week off. Yeah.
5:27
L- l- I wanna give credit to, and I wanna give credit to the proper person, which I will here. This is, uh, Nick, uh, Nick Giffen over at the Action Network with these stats, so I g- I give him a shout-out on this.
5:37
But his case for this game tonight is, and again, it's a, it's a three-point spread in favor of the home standing Chargers in this one.
5:43
Remember, the Chargers beat the Broncos earlier this year, a game that they led by a lot early and then sort of lollygagged their way into the victory.
5:51
Um, I don't know if they actually lollygagged, but you know what I mean. They sort of cruised in. Um, the case here for the under, the total is really low.
5:58
By the way, two and a halves are out there as well, two and a half, uh, uh- Basically everywhere... enhanced juice.
6:03
But let's put some enhanced juice on the two and a half with the Chargers tonight, so you can get the, that's the prevailing spread right now, I should say. The money line minus 148 on the home standing Chargers.
6:11
Total is low. It's at 41. Is it low enough? Let's make the case. Courtesy of, uh, of the, the stats here provided by Action Network. Denver puts up just 13.2 points per game on a 16.3 expected
6:27
in the five games these pl- they've played against top 13 defenses according to Aaron Schatz's DVOA. Okay, you get that? Mm-hmm.
6:34
So, so again, they are, they are, they underperform against the top 13 defenses by DVOA in the league, which the Chargers are one of. Uh, compared to when they play a lesser defense, they outperform, no surprise there.
6:46
They score 30 points versus 27.5 expected points per game in the other nine games where they weren't playing a top 13 defense. Uh, the Chargers' second highest rate of cover four, eighth highest of cover six.
6:58
Bo Nix, not good against cover, uh, uh, against zone defenses, against non-man. He has around a 60% dip in production against cover four. So it's a bad matchup when you look at it for Bo Nix through that prism.
7:12
By the way, the Broncos will also be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin tonight. He has the highest share of explosive plays for the Broncos, out of their backfield anyway.
7:21
Um, so you're thinking also with the Chargers' defense, Chargers still are better against the pass than they are against the run. They're 16th against the run in DVOA. They're seventh against the pass.
7:30
So you put all that in the mix, probably the, the Broncos, even despite not having Jaleel McLaughlin, they're probably gonna try to, uh, you know, grind out, uh, things on offense based on that.
7:42
At least that's what it is on paper. You know, you know, take that for what it's worth.
7:45
Other side of the ball, Broncos have the best defense on early downs, uh, holding the opposition to a 35.2% success rate compared to a 43.6% league average.
7:57
That's despite facing, Denver facing offenses that generate a 41.8% early down success rate on average, which means that they hold opponents to 6.5% below their normal rate.
8:09
That could put the Chargers in a bunch of third and longs. Herbert faces a tough matchup against the Broncos' man coverage.
8:16
Broncos allow the lowest explosive rate in the NFL when you remove the field position, you know, when you're inside, like, the 10 or 20.
8:23
Uh, and Herbert also has a 2.6% scramble rate with a clean pocket compared to just over 10% when pressured. And keep in mind, and the biggest detail of this game perhaps is, he's nursing an ankle injury. Yes. Yep.
8:35
So that's a lot of mumbo jumbo and a lot of numbers, but, you know, you put that all in the mix, and thank you again, um, for those stats. It just feels like you could have a game tonight despite the...
8:48
I mean, there's a reason, right? Is that... And so the, the, the quick response ought to be is, "Well, all of that should be baked into that number, 41." That's why it's as low as it is.
8:58
Is it low enough, is the question. Yeah, I think it's a good call. The, uh, it feel, it feels about right to me, but it would still... If you made me bet on the total, it would still be under. Still be under. Yeah.
9:07
Do you have a play on the side? I do not. I'm a little upset with that. I mean, this is, I think the pricing where we've seen these teams priced at, we've, we've maybe even gone a little too far now.
9:18
I thought three was appropriate. I was a little more in... I, I'd only be interested in Denver tonight. I was, I was interested a little bit when they were catching three.
9:26
I think the lookahead on this was three and a half. Now that we've gone all the way through the three, I think it's a little tough to consider the Broncos', uh, straight side tonight, at least for me.
9:35
I think it's a gr- obvious teaser leg, though, if you've got, uh, someone to pair it with.
9:38
Uh, do you feel like either of these teams, uh, either or both, whether they get in the postseason or not, is capable of a playoff win? Man, I'm gonna go with Chargers more so than Broncos.
9:53
I don't know if I believe that. Just because of the quarterback-coach situation. Yeah, I don't- But Her- Herbert being injured right now is something to monitor. Like, that was not a good week last week.
10:03
No, 'cause y- in your mind's eye, you can, you can... You know that Herbert has made huge plays with his legs this year in a way that you probably don't remember in other years. And I don't know. Uh, that's a...
10:14
You're right. They gotta get, they gotta get that, uh, obviously, he's gotta heal. But I'm just saying, if you look at the AFC playoff picture. By the way, do we know the seven teams in the AFC playoff picture?
10:22
Like, are we con- Are we pretty much convinced? Are we sure? Are we pretty much convinced? 'Cause I think I am.
10:28
And this is not a controversial statement, but Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Buffalo from the East, Pittsburgh and Baltimore in whatever order from the North, Houston from the South, and then Kansas City,
10:40
Denver, and the Chargers from the West. Yeah. Are we convinced that those are the seven, and that the Dolphins and Colts of the world, and Bengals of the world are not gonna get there? Yep.
10:53
I, I think it's, I honestly, I think it's been this way kinda locked in for the last few weeks. Really, the, the, the big game was last week with Denver and Indianapolis- Right...
11:01
it felt like, if, uh, if this could actually mix things up at all. But, no, I think it's- The Jonathan Taylor game- Yeah... as it will be known. Yes. But I think it's gonna be those seven.
11:07
Yeah, it's been looking like this for a while now. And, uh, I mean, I'm tipping the cap at both of these teams, right? I mean, me and you were not high on either one of these teams heading into the season.
11:16
And the fact that they are both in the playoff picture right now, um, and looking pretty locked in there is, is, is damn impressive. Now, can we say the same for the NFC? Let's start with the North.
11:25
Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay. All in, let's say, right? Okay. Uh, let's say Tampa Bay wins the South. Sorry, Michael Penix. Um, and there's gonna be an NF- And the, and the Eagles obviously win the East, so that's five.
11:39
But then you have the scrum between Washington, Seattle, and Arizona. So I guess we don't know the seven in, in the NFC. No, not at all. Not at all. We don't. Yeah. I mean, you could...
11:51
I mean, you still, uh, you still have two divisions. Maybe we wanna go one and a half divisions up for grabs, right? [laughs] With the, the West and the, and the South. But those are, those are still up for grabs.
12:01
I think the, the big question is, do you think the, is the wild card teams locked in? Well, that's what I mean.
12:06
I, and I think we only have a little bit of question mark still at the bottom of the NFC, but that's about it with three weeks left to play. They'll, they'll jockey for position.
12:14
Not talking about position, but just in terms of the teams in and out. We'll come back some more. Zach Cohen VSEN, the sports betting network.
12:28
[upbeat music] This segment of The Numbers Game is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches. There's only one number one draft pick.
12:36
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12:44
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12:57
We get tweets at Beating the Book. Kelly, a lot of love for, uh, Gina Fiore's appearance on the show yesterday from everybody. That was great. Um, Jesse Welch, "What an incredible two segments with Gina.
13:08
Gil really finds straight up gems to come on a Numbers Game." Kevin Ryan, "Wow, Gina Fiore killed it." Uh, James Sot, "I mean, all segments you guys have are top-notch, but this last one with Gina is extra educational.
13:20
Awesome stuff." Uh, let's see. I'm navigating through some of these. VSEN YouTube page, check it, uh, the whole, uh, two segments out now. Yes, that's absolutely right.
13:28
Bobby Knuckles, uh, "Kelly said he's buying me the 365 Days of Gambling calendar for Christmas from Gina Fiore. I wonder what Gil is getting me." [laughs] Rob is very concerned about his Christmas presents all this day.
13:40
He really is. He really is. Uh, let's see. Uh, Jeff Levine, "Whoa, Gil, please tie Miss Gina to that chair. No, not for that. She's awesome. Her storytelling is unprecedented."
13:50
Um, JDL underscore eight, "Holy cow, Gil, great interview." Richard Palmer, "Great guest." Big Lake Show, "Eric, this is a great story." RaidersNation75, "Great interview this morning."
14:00
Christopher Lubisnek, "Awesome interview, awesome appearance. End civil asset forfeiture now." Should be a campaign slogan. Edward LaFever, "That was my favorite hit of the year, Gil."
14:10
Joseph Durham Jr, "Gina is a hero of mine. One day I hope to get to speak with her about her famous lawsuit." Doug Wedge, "This is totally fascinating. I need to watch that doc."
14:19
Um, [lip smack] and Lollygaggers, uh, "I heard the interview with Gina Fiore today. I just wanna say it was the best thing VSEN ever did. You need to get Gina on regularly. Gina, I am now following you."
14:29
And on, and on, and on. The, uh, the part that really kinda shocked me was the documentary stuff. Oh, yeah.
14:37
'Cause, 'cause when, when I figured it out, you know, the day before, we were doing a little research prep for it and everything, figured out that there's [laughs] a doc that's been made, and I'm like, "Where can I watch this?"
14:46
Yeah. Well, now- Oh, I can't- Because they're trying to sell it... because one of these media companies is holding it up so they can sell it for the right- Yeah... price to the right peop- I'm like- Yeah...
14:54
I was thinking about that all afternoon. I was like, man, that would drive me nuts. I'd say, imagine if someone came and shot a documentary about you, and like two years later, you're like- [laughs]...
15:02
"Hey, any update on this?" And they're like, "We're waiting for the right place to release it." And now an 85-year-old Kelly Bittling gets to see the documentary- [laughs]... on his life. Right, exactly. Yeah.
15:11
J-Rod is cracking studio. Yes, Jamie Leyva, "Tim Murray in between Zach and Crack sounds like a good hang. Count me in." Well, let's get it going with Zach Cohen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:20
He, of course, is part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. You can follow him on Twitter at BettingOnX. What's happening, Zach? Not much. I have a, a tough, tough act to follow with Gina yesterday.
15:30
Hey, man, you go to Stanford? Is that why you're wearing that Stanford sweatshirt? What's up with that? Uh, yeah, I've been to Palo Alto before. I ate at a Salt & Straw there.
15:37
I've not, I did not go to Sta- [laughs] I did not go to Stanford. Okay. Just checking. Just wanna get your, get your cred out there. I had a, I had a Harvard T-shirt I used to wear around Florida State sometimes.
15:46
You did? Yeah, dead serious, just for, just for the laughs. Hey- Just for the looks... did you have a- Subway University. [laughs] Do you have a built-in line if people ask you, "Hey, you go to Harvard? What year?"
15:54
[laughs] No, not at all. No, no. It's always just weird looks. Uh, all right, Zach, let's start with, uh, NBA. Anything in the NBA tonight for you? Yeah, I have a lot in the NBA tonight.
16:05
Uh, I really like the Spurs money line against the Hawks.
16:07
I'm interested in seeing what this, you know, Vegas hangover looks like for some teams, but in general, I just think San Antonio's just as good as Atlanta, and I think it's a really tough matchup for Atlanta.
16:16
I think Steph Castle's gonna be able to do a pretty good job of handling Trae Young in this game. He has been a really, really good perimeter defender right away as a rookie.
16:24
And I just don't really like the center matchups that the Hawks have for Wembanyama. Capela's a little bit too slow. Uh, Okongwu's too short. He's not actually gonna be playing tonight. Uh, he's injured.
16:33
But I, I just think that the Spurs team should be able to get the job done at home. Uh, they're nine and seven at home on the year. The Hawks are 500 on the road.
16:41
Hawks have also struggled against Western Conference teams. Kelly and I saw Clint Capela on, uh- I was gonna say, we, uh-... last Saturday night...
16:46
Gil and, Gil and I were enjoying a late dinner, uh, at, at Wynn, and we counted I don't know how many Hawks players. I mean, it's, it's- [laughs]... it's quite a while from Saturday to Thursday.
16:55
I think, uh, any hangovers or anything like that- No... we should worry about. But it was Clint Capela, Larry Nance Jr, who I learned that night was on the Atlanta Hawks. [laughs] He also, he's looking skinny.
17:06
He's looking skinny. Remember I said that like three times? Yeah. Um, they were all over the place, and, uh, yeah, but you're right. No, there's no, uh, there's no handicapping angle to that. No.
17:13
We just wanted to point out that we were hanging with them. None of them ha- none of them were hanging out together, which made me sad. Kelly then went to try- That's sad...
17:19
Kelly went to try to play blackjack with someone. You didn't find anybody? We didn't find anybody on the way out, no. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Okay, what else in the NBA?
17:25
Uh, I have the Mavericks team total under 113 and a half against the Clippers tonight. Uh, there's no Luka, and Kyrie is questionable. I'm interested in seeing what that does for their pace.
17:34
Luka does like to, you know, score a lot of baskets with hit-ahead passes and just kinda getting down the floor and, you know, jacking up threes. And this Clippers team does like to slow opponents down.
17:43
They're the bottom 10 in the league in pace of play. They're also sixth in the league in adjusted defensive rating, and they're giving up under 110 points per game this year.
17:50
So I'd be really interested in seeing how that looks. I'd be surprised if Dallas lights up the scoreboard. Hey, Zach, do you have any read on when we're, uh, when you think we're gonna see Kawhi actually hit the court?
18:00
'Cause now he's actually been, what, practicing five on five here the, uh, recently. I, I saw a report that he's gonna be missing at least the next four games.
18:07
I, I don't know why it's that specific, but yeah, I, I would assume, you know, two weeks we see him. You, you two are basketball hardos. This is extremely specific.
18:15
[laughs] Um, are, are you all worried with the declining ratings that have been so widely reported that Adam Silver is gonna go all Rob Manfred on us and try to come up with some gimmicky thing to put into the rules for next year?
18:29
I don't think so. I mean, I would like to see the NBA Cup have a little bit more of a s- like a season tie-in. Like, like the winner gets like an automatic four seed at the, at the least or something like that.
18:39
I think that would be a really interesting, you know, wrinkle to add to that. But I al- I already kinda think that the NBA Cup is awesome, so I don't know how much we have to change it.
18:46
I don't, I know that the Las Vegas thing apparently is not working out very well, but- Oh, I'm not talking about the NBA Cup. Yeah. I'm talking about the NBA. Yeah. I, I- Like-... I, I think it's a great question, Gil.
18:56
Yeah. And am I, is it, am I a little scared of it in the back of my mind? Yeah. You wanna hear one of the ones that I've heard floated? What? Four-point lines? And I don't know if the... Y- the, what, what'd you say?
19:05
Four-point lines. Worse. A blinking three-point line, which sometimes becomes four-point and other times- Okay, that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. That's insane. Was it David Frost's?
19:14
I'm just telling you, I'm just telling you th- because Rob Manfred, right, at least he tries stuff, right? And so, you know, uh, people can say what they want, but the pitch clock has been successful.
19:24
No one cares about that. The size of the bags, people are like, "Oh my God, everybody's gonna steal." Well, steals have gone up, so some of the things has wor- has, have worked out.
19:31
Now again, this whole notion of, oh, anybody can bat twice in one inning, that thing that he floated the last time is insane, and I won't watch another baseball game if it happens, but I think he's just floating stuff.
19:42
But I do think we're getting to the point where the NBA, where Adam Silver, Adam Silver's gonna have to try to come up with some stuff, and I'm just curious if you guys are, as basketball purists, you're gonna be like, "Oh no, here we go," 'cause I think it's coming.
19:54
Anything else in the NBA before we move on? Uh, yeah, I like the Timberwolves money line against the Knicks. It's a little bit juicy, but the Timberwolves have won six of their last seven.
20:02
Uh, their defensive rating is now better than it was last year when we viewed them as, you know, an elite defensive team. The offense is starting to come around a little. Julius Randle's percentages are up.
20:11
Uh, him and Edwards have a better feel of, you know, when it's their turn to, to shine a little bit. That has a lot to do with Mike Conley playing.
20:18
I, I noted to Kelly and JBT a couple of days ago, the Timberwolves are 14 and 7 when Conley plays, 0 and 4 without him.
20:25
He's healthy right now, and this is a, a Knicks team that can really struggle defensively, and Minnesota can shoot the three ball.
20:30
So I think that Minnesota's gonna be able to score points in this game, and I trust them defensively to kinda hold their own against the Knicks. All right, to college football.
20:38
We do have a couple bowl games, uh, a few bowl games before we get to the actual playoff. We have Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State. Georgia Southern, uh, short favorite today in the New Orleans Bowl.
20:48
Then we have Ohio and Jacksonville State, uh, in the Cure Bowl. Tulane and Florida in the ol' Gasparilla Bowl. Who doesn't love the Gasparilla Bowl? Mm.
20:56
Uh, and then we finally get to, on, uh, Friday night, the college football playoff beginning with, uh, Indiana and Notre Dame.
21:02
Any thoughts on any of those three bowls before the playoff, and then go to the playoff itself, sir? The only one that I really like is I think you have weighing the points with Florida.
21:11
I just think that the way that the Gators looked in the second half of the season, they looked like a team that might've made the playoff if they played that way the entire season.
21:17
I think that there's enough continuity heading over from this year to next year where they're gonna, you know, have some incentive to play well in this ballgame. Tulane kinda fell apart down the stretch.
21:26
They lost their starting quarterback. I'd be pretty surprised if the Gators don't win that one by at least two scores.
21:31
Uh, but I, I, I'm actually taking it pretty light with the bowl games, although I'll be writing up like 1,000 of 'em next week. [laughs] I love that. Although apparently I have an assignment is, is what you say.
21:41
[laughs] Um, s- and nothing in the college football playoff first round? Nothing at all? Uh, no, I do have college football- Okay... playoff plays. I have the under 51 and a half in Indiana and, uh, Notre Dame.
21:51
I just think that both those teams run on, you know, more than 55% of their plays.
21:55
I don't think that they're gonna be able to get the passing games going with, you know, the cold weather and the snow, and I think especially, like I don't really trust Indiana to score a lot of points against Notre Dame.
22:04
I think that we saw the Hoosiers really struggle to throw the ball against the Buckeyes. That was the fourth-ranked EPA per play defense against the pass this year.
22:11
The Fighting Irish are first, so I don't really see a lot changing. I think that Rourke is really gonna struggle, and I think that even though I like Notre Dame probably to cover the number, I didn't take it.
22:21
I, I would be surprised if that game g- ends up being high scoring. What about Saturday? I took the over, uh, 53 and a half in SMU Penn State. Uh, it's kind of the opposite of this one.
22:31
I think both teams are gonna be able to score in that one.
22:33
I think that Penn State's gonna end up probably winning that game and maybe covering the spread, but I think that we saw in SMU's game against Clemson that, you know, Jennings falls behind.
22:42
He's a pretty good garbage time quarterback, and I know they actually ended up making that game close, but I do think they're gonna be able to score some points in the second half, and I also parlayed Ohio State and Penn State money line.
22:51
Okay. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it, man. You're on your way, headed back to Stanford's campus, I would imagine- Yeah... at this point. [laughs] Yep, I gotta get back to class, guys. [laughs] All right, man, enjoy.
23:02
Thank you so much. All right, man. Zach Cohen, everybody. Betting On X is where you can find him and all of the stuff he writes about at vsin.com.
23:09
College football to the NBA, and of course, tennis right around the corner. We got some NFL power rankings next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:19
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Say that again, Kelly. You're a movie guy, not a book guy? That is shocking information. I know, I know. I had to remember which Tom Clancy one it was.
23:28
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24:00
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always, uh, appreciate the, uh, feedback. Uh, Gina's out there.
24:11
She's saying, uh, "Thank you for having me on. I even put an entry about Derek Stevens in the calendar." Here's the thing, by the way. People are s- super, uh, nice on, uh, Twitter to me. I deserve no credit.
24:20
Her story is so good, right, that it is just, it's r- it's a riveting story, but, uh, the calendar is out there, 365 Days of Gambling: 2025. This is from Berner, @Berneracci Things learned in 2024.
24:35
This is a very, uh, year retrospective on the numbers game he's got for us here. Okay. This is a great tweet. He says, "Things learned in 2024. Sushi spot says, 'No, thanks.' Uh, delicious/Antonio Pierce.
24:46
[laughs] Bob Seger classics. Yo. Yacht Rock connoisseurs. K. Michael Biddlin, top hatter, Pulitzer Prize winner, game show host. Aquarium fish suicide."
24:56
[laughs] That was Drew's fish, sadly, sadly, we shouldn't laugh, sadly committed suicide. Oh, I'm starting to creep out the crew with this, too, apparently. I can't stop looking at his fish tank every time he comes on.
25:07
We have to... We should buy Drew fish for Christmas. There... I, we should, we should. We should. We should. Uh, he's nothing special, which of course was, uh, Meryl Hodge's take on, uh, Caleb Williams.
25:16
And do not say Frisco. Thank you, Burner. That's a, that's a A+ tweet right there. By the way, have you noticed that's Tom Brady's crutch on all broadcasts? "That's an A+ throw and an A+ catch." [laughs] It's like, okay.
25:27
It's like, okay, Tom. I can't, I can't stop watching the Tony Romo guy. [laughs] The guy that was Romo and Collinsworth the other night. I don't know if it's A+, Tom. Oh, and Jim, Jim. Jim, I don't know if that's A+.
25:38
Uh, New York Mess 16 talking about what I was talking about with the NBA, uh, and their declining ratings, says, "Gil, if the NBA wants better ratings, maybe they should try playing basketball.
25:47
Carries, Euro steps, three-step layups, two to three step-step back jumpers." I think he meant to say step twice. 85 reviews in the last two minutes. Oh, and of course the ticky tack foul calls.
25:57
The reviews are really bad. Uh, it's... You gotta k- kill, lose some of the timeouts. That, that's the easiest- Yeah... one right away.
26:03
But that's- The amount of timeouts these teams have, 'cause then it allows them to challenge, too, if you have a timeout, right? And it's just- All the challenges. Oh, the reviews...
26:08
you, you gotta cut back on the timeouts. Duck fan for life. Come on, Gil. The NBA is an unwatchable three-point contest these days. Hey, I'm not, I'm not defending the NBA. I can't watch it.
26:18
Give me back the physical defensive battles between the Pistons and the Bulls, and I'll be a fan again. #AdamSilverMustAct. Yeah, but you know what you don't wanna get to?
26:28
'Cause you went, you cleverly went back to the Pistons and the Bulls. That period in between [laughs] with, like, the Nets and the Spurs- Yeah... in the early aughts, that was unwatchable. The, the early 2000s Pistons?
26:39
Um, yeah. I, I wanna Ron Burgundy through some of these, but I'm terrified. [laughs] Uh, the numbers guys. I wonder if people were excited to see a lady on the show yesterday, Gil.
26:47
Personally, I thought you got the best you could out of the interview. Uh, Alan Boston and Crack, uh, were always the c- [laughs] were always the great ones to him. Uh, Shine has chimed in.
26:58
Professor Shine, he says, "Radical NBA rule change, cap three-point attempts unless down 10 plus in the fourth quarter." Ooh. He s- he, and he caps it at 35. Cap three-point attempts- I don't hate it...
27:13
unless you're down 10 plus in the fourth quarter. Can still shoot them, but they only count as a two if team has used their shot attempt allotment. Oh, that's clever. I don't hate that one at all.
27:24
I don't hate that one at all. 'Cause I, anything that adds- 'Cause the-... strategy to the game. Yeah. 'Cause that adds strategy. Yeah, and it's not, like, something ridiculously cheesy like a blinking three-point arc.
27:33
Yeah. [laughs] I don't... All of this just makes me sad. I'm really just not, I'm not gonna try to defend the NBA or anything. It's just sad because we have, I...
27:41
Like, Victor Wembanyama's in his second year of the NBA- I know... and he's going to be the most freak athlete- Well-...
27:48
that we have ever seen play the game, and it's like we're, we're all talking about how the game's just broken. It's sad. Well, well s- well, so think about that, though, 'cause it's a star system game, right?
27:56
So it's LeBron is les- you know, he's gotta retire at some point, right? LeBron's gonna be gone. Yeah. Steph Curry's gonna be gone at some point. KD's gonna be gone at some point. D- Will the American
28:09
basketball audience, not the, not the ones that are hardcore, but the, like, the f- the bubble people who could or, who might or might not watch,
28:17
will they be riveted by the Nikola Jokic, Luka Dončić-led NBA, and throw Victor in there as well? And the answer is probably a l- it's, it's probably a net negative, right? Based on what they have now. Yeah.
28:31
In terms of just the star power. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, probably, yes. Compared to what the height was- Yes... to the height was. And I think that's where... I, I mean, I think that's where part of this pro...
28:39
I mean, look, I think may- the main problem that people, uh, m- really have is really just the, the numbers game. Eh. Hey. Eh. Hey, Romo. Uh, the numbers game, it really has become with the three-pointers. I get it.
28:50
Like, I get it, but it's just, it's... I, there's also, like, James Harden, I know a lot of people love to hate on James Harden's career.
28:57
I, I have so much respect for what that guy did with his game of just realizing how to... Like, we always talk about, you use the rules to your advantage.
29:05
When he was in Houston, when it was get to the line, and I'm gonna contort my body and make the refs make a call, or we're gonna kill them with threes.
29:14
And that started, I know a lot of people hated it, and that's where a lot of, lot of the hatred started with some of this stuff.
29:19
But man, it was, it was just great strategy to use the rules in your favor a- and it made him a superstar. One more tweet before we get to the, uh, power rank is Michael Burns.
29:27
"Alexander and Bidlin don't flaunt your wealth at us. Dinner at the wind, dinner at the Wynn, lol." Oh, we're not flaunting our wealth. [laughs] We're flaunting Matt Brown's wealth. Yeah, Matt Brown paid for it.
29:38
[laughs] He paid for everything. He didn't pay for anything. [laughs] Which brings us, ladies and gentlemen, to NFL power rankings. Plug it in. [imitates switching on machine] [electronic music] [laughs] What? What?
29:52
Matt Brown paid for everything. He didn't pay a dime. We're flaunting... By the way, I forgot, 102.5, KZOK Seattle. And that was at a, uh, par- free party before that. Yeah, it was an expensive evening.
30:02
[laughs] It's not flaunting our wealth. Open bar at a party before that. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a, uh, change atop the NFL power rankings, and this is all injury driven.
30:12
Uh, the Lions drop because it is just too much- Yeah... in terms of the injuries. I got the Ravens at number one. The Baltimore Ravens are my number one. The Buffalo Bills ascend to number two.
30:24
Of course, the Bills also went into Detroit. And in a game that ended up 48-42, and quite frankly, wasn't that close, the Bills are number two. The Lions are three.
30:33
The Chiefs drop one to four with, again, the Chiefs have always been sort of a, uh... Listen, the Chiefs are 13 and 1. I'm not sure if you're aware of this.
30:42
13 and 1, and I have them power ranked fourth 'cause it's just this, it just feels like it's such a, and I don't think this is a controversial take at all, right? It just feels like it's a wobbly 13 and 1. Sure, yeah.
30:54
Um, Eagles are- It's, it's also way more wobbly than Minnesota, which is funny too. Like, we, we give- Yes... no credit to Minnesota. Well, I finally did, right? Eagles five, Packers six.
31:04
I've got the Vikings at seven, which is, you know, my bad. They probably should've been that high the whole time, but, uh, it, there's, there's no denying that at this point.
31:11
Vikings seven, Texans eight Um, commo- Commodes nine, Steelers 10, and then we, uh, decided we're gonna go past the top 10. The Bucs with their highest ranking of the year for me at number 11.
31:26
And I know they're, they're not playing great teams at this point, but they look good, man. I'm with you. Um, Broncos remain at 12. I got the Rams at 13. Cardinals and Chargers ri- uh, round out the top 15.
31:39
Just try- I'm trying to do some math here. So we had... We have two teams, I think we share w- yeah, we share with two teams moving up the most. We're tied for the most with you.
31:48
It's Rams and Bucs that have moved up the most in ours. It's kind of interesting. Okay. Uh, mine, I went Bills one, uh, Wil- Bills one, Ravens two. That's how I did this. Uh, I'm with you.
31:58
We, we might be a little early on this, but I think these... I just think these Lions injuries are gonna... They, they've, they've already, uh, mounted up.
32:05
I think they're gonna get worse here, uh, and it's gonna get ugly here in Detroit, so I have dropped them down to four. Uh, Bills one for me, Ravens two, Eagles three.
32:15
I think that's where you can make the argument it should be Eagles, Li- you know, Eagles or Lions there at three. I, I just have a feeling this is gonna get... Th- this is going to get bad for Detroit.
32:23
Maybe I'm completely wrong and they're gonna be their best team in the NFL, and that's how it's gonna play out, play out, and this offense is good enough to get it done. Um, but right now I got them at four.
32:32
Chiefs at five. Like, that's... Like, I know you're talking about Gil, right? Like, we could be dead wrong on both of those.
32:36
The, they're- So four and five could be, like, in a Super Bowl matchup we would not be shocked about at all. And again, we should stop and say, you know, but why do you do power rankings?
32:42
You do power rankings as sort of a guard rail so that you don't overreact from week to week- Yeah... when you're making your bets week to week.
32:49
But we are f- when we are fully aware with the Chiefs that all, it, we're talking in, in, in the NFL, it's not a best of seven. It's 60 minutes, right? Mm-hmm. You just have to be there for 60 minutes.
32:58
As long as you got the guy with the cape on, Patrick Mahomes, i- if they got to the Super Bowl, would we be shocked? No, of course not. And, and, like, are the margins slimmer this year? Sure. Yeah.
33:07
But, like, we still all watched a year ago. Yeah. You know, like, one season ago, we all watched. Uh, Packers six for me, Vikings seven. Those stay put. I moved the Bucs up. I moved them up big, Gil. Wow. Yeah. Wow.
33:17
I, but I think there, there's a team that I don't wanna get in front of this offense right now. I'm really interested, uh, in the Bucs and what they're gonna do in the playoffs. This team is very fascinating.
33:25
Baker Mayfield, my favorite quarterback in the NFL, I think, right now with what he's done this year. Steelers and Texans moving down to spot 9 and 10. They come into, uh, Rams, I moved up to 11.
33:36
I think what that team has done offensively recently has been pretty impressive. Obviously, one bad half last week in that monsoon in San Francisco. Uh, but even in the second half started to look better.
33:45
Seahawks 12, Commanders 13, Broncos 14, Chargers 15. Brian Schaefer says, "Man, Gil, what do the Eagle have to, what do the Eagles have to do to get to the top three, win 15 in a row?" I got them fifth.
33:56
And I also have the Chiefs at 13 and 1 not in the top three, so I'm not picking on the Eagles, just the way I see how the cookie crumbles. Uh, we'll come back.
34:04
Tim Murray, college football, and I ask him the same questions I asked, uh, yesterday about who's the most likely to win it all from this weekend. That's next.
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34:48
Minimum purchase may apply. I wanna get to Tim Murray here real quick to talk college football, but I just want to, uh, read this, uh, read this one tweet here. "Cheap prop bets.
34:58
Outside of the NFL, it would be interesting to know how viewership would be affected without gambling involved. Some of these leagues, like the NBA, are hard, are hard to watch during the regular season." Um,
35:09
you were saying off air real quick. What were you saying? That, that it's the one game that what? I got a couple, a c- couple things.
35:15
I also think just sports, sports ratings in general are gonna be tough to keep up, espec- if we're not talking the NFL, just because of content these days and how it's designed.
35:23
It's designed specifically for you on demand whenever you want it, streaming services. It's tough to compete. A- a- and, and it's, that's really what it is.
35:32
You're an entertainment product competing with these other entertainment products, and that's tough. Uh, what I was saying off the air is the NBA, it just feel...
35:39
Like, I get, I get why people don't like watching it right now. I get that.
35:43
It just feels like it's a ga- the game of kind of the big, the big sports that we talk about that's been figured out the most when it comes to the analytics side of things and what teams should do optimally to win these games.
35:56
Right. And that's- And that's everybody's trying to construct teams and operate their teams in a very specific fashion right now.
36:02
But my counter to that is, the W- and I don't know if I r- I don't even remember if I do this on air or off air now, so forgive me if I'm repeating myself on air. But the Warriors did it so beautifully. Mm. Right?
36:12
With, I think I did this on air, with Steph and Klay. They did it so beautifully that everybody tries, you know, "Oh, look, that's perfect basketball. We'll all do that." You can't be that.
36:22
You ar- you aren't Steph and Klay. So it's like, then it becomes this very awkward, clangy, you know, sport. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I actually think it's...
36:30
I, I think you could say the same thing right now, that not every team can be the Boston Celtics. 'Cause what they're, what they're getting out of guys like Derrick White and Jrue Holiday- Yeah...
36:38
it's just, you don't usually, y- you don't usually get that much production from guys that you're not paying absolute max dollars to. Let's talk some college football.
36:46
We must, because it is big this weekend, the first ever first round of the 12-team format. Tim Murray joins us, everybody, to discuss, uh, and give his bets, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
36:56
You can follow him on Twitter @1TimMurray. That's the number one, Tim Murray. How you doing, Tim? I'm great, Gil. I'm fired up, man.
37:03
I, I've, I've been a proponent for the expanded playoffs since the day it was announced, and, uh, here we go. We're, we're about, what, 24 hours away from this bad boy getting going. Here we go.
37:13
Let me, let me ask you before we get to your picks. Mm-hmm. Let me ask you the two questions that I asked, uh, earlier in the week when we were talking college football. I asked this of JBT, I'll ask this of you.
37:21
Um, which is, one- If I came to you from the future and I said, "Hey, one of the eight teams..." By the way, I'm, as I'm saying this, I'm, I realize who I'm asking this question of, so I kinda know the answer.
37:31
[laughs] But if one of these eight teams this week, or one of the eight teams this week won the national championship, that's what I came to you from the future to tell you, who is that team, Tim Murray, Notre Dame fan?
37:41
[laughs] Texas. Oh, there you go. Yeah. I mean, I, I- Okay... think from a pure power rating standpoint, it, it would be Texas.
37:49
Now, I've been a, I've had my questions about the Longhorns all year, but I think from what they have, they were in the playoff last year. Uh, do I have questions about their quarterback? Sure.
38:00
I've got questions about every single team's quarterback, maybe outside of Oregon.
38:03
So I think if you'd came to me and said, "This team won the title that's playing this weekend," well, based off of the odds, it would be Texas. They are the co-favorites to win the national championship.
38:13
If they win this weekend, they have a game against Arizona State, where I think they have a massive advantage because Arizona State is without their leading wide receiver, and just from a pound for pound standpoint, they're a better football team.
38:26
So certainly from a road standpoint, I think they've got a optimal road to get to the semifinals. So yeah, as much as I would love to say it's Notre Dame, I think the answer is Texas.
38:37
Yeah, with Arizona State waiting to play the winner of Texas Clemson. Right. Here's, here's the other question about the first round. Uh, they're all at least touchdown favorites, right? Notre Dame being the lowest.
38:47
They- Yep... seven-point favorite against Indiana. Uh, Ohio State right there is a seven-and-a-half point favorite against Tennessee. Um, but they're all seven-point favorites or greater.
38:56
Who is the most likely, this is a mega pod, uh, transferred question. Who is the most likely of those four favorites to lose outright?
39:03
So I think conventional wisdom, and most people would immediately say Tennessee, and I actually put this question out on social media, and 43% of people who have chimed in on my Twitter feed have said Tennessee.
39:17
Tennessee, to steal a phrase from our mutual friend, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, is starting to feel like a dog with fleas when you look at the public support that's out there with that point spread.
39:30
So I'll say it's Indiana. Um, as much as I don't wanna say it, I think Indiana, if they can cause some turnovers, they have an opportunity to pull out an outright upset on Friday night. So do I think it'll happen? No.
39:46
But I'll say the most likely underdog to win is Indiana. And I actually have the belief, Gil, and we, and we'll get into this game, I think Tennessee's in some trouble on Saturday night.
39:56
I think this is a bit of a buy low opportunity on the Buckeyes. Wow. Okay. So Notre Dame the most likely to lose outright, and you think Tennessee is the, what do, what do we call it always?
40:05
The, uh, the way too popular dog, in other words. Feels that way, doesn't it? Yeah. What is your best bet of all these four? Maybe you've already said it, maybe you haven't. Uh, yeah.
40:13
So I have bet the under in Tennessee, Ohio State. I think another way to attack it would be the team total under for Tennessee. I was able to grab, at a shop in town, 19 and a half yesterday.
40:24
I think that number's out there.
40:26
Um, I, I just think, I look at Tennessee and I look at this matchup, Gil, and I really think the person that I trust the most in this matchup on Saturday night in Columbus is Jim Knowles, the defensive coordinator for Ohio State.
40:39
I think he's going to scheme it up very, very well.
40:42
Now, why I'm not racing to lay seven and a half is, well, I think those hooks could potentially disappear if in fact, you know, the public support continues to file in on Tennessee.
40:53
But I also think that there is a bit of a, a question about Ohio State's offensive line. Their left tackle was lost to the year, uh, couple weeks back.
41:01
They lost their starting center, and Tennessee's strength is their defensive line. So I like the under. Uh, obviously we've seen some under money come into the market.
41:09
It was 47 and a half around open, now at a 46 and a half. So I still like the under, but I also like team total under as well for Tennessee.
41:18
I, I think they struggle to have consistency against this Ohio State defense that, look, the best unit on the field Saturday night, in my opinion, will be the Ohio State defense.
41:28
So I'm not racing to lay seven, seven and a half here with Ohio State, but I think there is a struggle coming for this Tennessee offense. So I like full game under, team total under.
41:39
That's kinda the way I'm looking to attack Saturday night in Columbus. Yeah, that, that seems like a really popular pick, the Tennessee Ohio State under. Yeah.
41:46
Anecdotally, just in terms of guests we've had, people on the network, uh, people really like the under in that. What is the... Let, let me ask it this way. Uh, a third question. Yeah.
41:55
What is the quarterfinal, the potential quarterfinal matchup, um, and obviously we don't know what those, those are gonna be. Those will only be determined after Saturday night.
42:04
But what's the one that you would almost anti- that you would almost hope happens because you believe the line will be ex- will be e- will be able to be exploited? Ooh, that's a good question, because I think the
42:19
q- e- easy answer would be Notre Dame, Georgia, because the lookahead lines right now, Gil, are Notre Dame minus one and a half, minus two. And I think that is coming to a, a shock to most people.
42:32
And, you know, we talked to Matt Groh from DraftKings Sportsbook on VSIN Primetime last night, and we talked to him a week ago when they put out these lookahead numbers.
42:41
And I think a lot of people are going to race, understandably so, if that is the matchup to take the points with Georgia. But we don't know about Gunner Stockton as a full-time starter.
42:52
I think that is certainly a question. You know, I actually wrote up this line, uh, for the VSIN College Football Betting Guide, and I am not a big chalk eater. I, I don't like laying it.
43:02
But I mentioned it already, I, I think anything under two touchdowns if we get Texas and Arizona State is, is a play on Texas, because Texas' strength is their offensive line.
43:14
And as tremendous as Kam Scaddoo is, the Arizona State running back, Gil, you know, without Jordan Tyson there, their lead wide receiver, and they were able to overcome him not being on the field in the Big 12 Championship game.
43:27
I think that's where they get potentially exploited in a possible Peach Bowl matchup.
43:32
So for me, to answer your question, I kinda hope we get Texas, Arizona State, because I do think that is going to be a line that's going to be massive, 11 and a half, 12 and a half.
43:42
But I actually think that will be a play for me on the Texas side. You think it'll be massive, but not high enough, in other words. Yeah. That's interesting. Okay. And then before you go here, we only have a minute.
43:51
Non-playoff, what... Bowl season, what's your favorite bet right now that's out there? Oh, man. I know I'm gonna do it again. Uh, FanDuel still has 13 and a half on this Syracuse Washington State game.
44:04
Um, you know, sometimes you gotta take advantage of teams that are just gonna be depleted. Washington State, Gil, is gonna be without their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, QB coach- [laughs]...
44:14
running back coach, starting r- quarterback. I mean, the whole team's in the portal- Is that good?... and Fran, and Fran Brown has essentially said everyone's playing for Syracuse.
44:24
So, you know, if you can get under a touchdown, or excuse me, under two touchdowns, under a touchdown would be great.
44:29
Under two touchdowns, which is out there at FanDuel, I, I gotta lay the lumber here with Syracuse in this spot against a, a roster that I don't know who's showing up in San Diego for Wazzu.
44:40
Tim again saying, "Baked in, but not baked in enough," is what he is, uh- Yeah... is what he's selling us here. Okay. Tim, thank you so much, man. Appreciate it as always. All right, Gil. See you, man.
44:50
Tim Murray, everybody, host of, uh, VSIN Primetime. Coming back, crack unscripted numbers game. VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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