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Dec 20, 2024
A Number's Game | HR 2 | 12.20.24
A Number's Game | HR 2 | 12.20.24
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44:52
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Transcript
0:00
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0:27
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:35
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game+, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:44
We are truly grateful, especially, uh, during this holiday season. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Happy holidays to you and yours. Yours sounds very possessive, doesn't it? It really does. Yeah, yeah.
0:55
I don't know why people say that. It's a very official thing to say. You and yours. You and your family- Yeah... and, and friends and anybody else- Yeah... you care about- Yeah... that you, you hope a happy holidays to.
1:04
It's a great time of year though, right? People, people are nicer, you know, than normal. Are they? Well, as long as you're not on social media they're nicer. Eh, yeah. In real life, aren't they?
1:14
I'd like to think that, but, like, I don't know, you go to, like, the grocery store or something at the wrong time these days- [laughs] Oh, boy It's not nice there? Yeah, yeah. I don't know.
1:20
Give me that box of Frosted Flakes. [laughs] We get tweets at Beatie the Book. Uh, Myrtle, "Gil, you absolutely ha- you absolutely have to watch Lebowski." Now, what is this reference?
1:29
You go, "Gil, what the hell is this saying? Kelly, obviously you're not a golfer." Is that from Lebowski? I don't remember. I don't remember that either.
1:35
Judd O'Connor, "After tuning in yesterday to live video to watch Crack, it dawned on me you guys did that at the D.
1:41
Feels like ages ago superstar Gil [laughs] was th- superstar Gil was thrown into the broom closet to do his show." That's right. I'll, I'll just throw whatever, that's 'cause what you called me earlier.
1:51
Uh, Eddie Vegan Runner, "I'm a letter carrier in Chicago. I have Jason's lost package and I'm holding it hostage- [laughs]... until he gives me more winning picks and pro tips. Happy holidays to you all."
2:02
Happy holidays to you as well. And then Kevin Ryan points out that Jason Weingarten's, uh, eyewear is, uh, morphing into Brad Powers' eyewear. That they are shop- Oh, interesting... shopping at the same store. Okay.
2:11
Yeah. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, does it get better than this hour? I ask you rhetorically. Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob. Beginning with the Bear, Chris Falica from Fox Sports.
2:20
He is the host of The Bear Bets Pod Empire, uh, multiple podcast over there at Fox Sports. Chris Falica now joins us from God knows where he is right now. How you doing, Chris?
2:31
My, first thing I just wanna say to you, Gil, I love you, but sooner or later you're gonna have to face the fact that you're a goddamn moron. That's a big Lebowski quote. I, I, I- Oh. I'm like, "Oh, okay. I'm sure."
2:42
No, no, no. Makes sen- I, I, I am, I am here from my, I am here from the home office and, uh, and- I was gonna say, you look like you're at home. Wow...
2:48
no, no, no, no big noon this weekend, so yeah, we're, we're here in the office. Let me, let me- By, by the way. Yeah. I, I sent you a, uh, a text las- last night a- about a, uh, talking about, like, TVs and viewing.
2:59
Like, Into the Fire, The Lost Daughter, [laughs] strong recommendation- Oh... from, uh, Netflix viewing. Little, little true crime- Two episodes, an hour and 15 minutes each.
3:10
True cr- I know how you and, uh, fashion stylist Deborah Song like the, uh, the crime docs. Give, give us the name again. What is it? Into the Fire it's called. On Net- Go ahead and- On Netflix? On Netflix, yes. Yeah.
3:20
Into the Fire. Mark that down. Yes. We gotta watch that. Yeah. It, it, uh, takes some turns. Okay. I like one that takes some turns. Um, let me ask you about these, uh, these prices again.
3:31
Do you think this is a thing or not a thing? We were just talking about the average prices for these four first round games in college football, uh, the college football playoff.
3:39
It comes at a time right before the, right before Christmas, so it's an awkward time. Kids are l- are out of school.
3:46
Um, we said, like, so the average price for the Notre Dame game, not a problem tonight, $416, but Texas $91, Ohio State $59, Penn State $33.
3:57
There was some buzz about this on the, when the, when they conceived the playoff, that this- Mm-hmm... might be an issue.
4:02
Do you think it could be an issue to the degree that it m- that it might factor into thinking moving forward, scheduling? I do. Yeah. I do. I, I, I do, and I can think back, I remember,
4:15
uh, it was earlier in the year, and I can't remember what show it was on, but I remember hearing actually Derek Stevens talking about this, uh, that they, that the, the playoff, we may wind up seeing the home games the first round be a g- very quick, uh, but not, maybe not one and done, but something that was going to change.
4:35
And I think he, he cited students not being on campus, uh, people on vacation, holidays, uh, bad weather in some locales, a college town with, with lack of a, a hotel avail- like, the, the, the, all, all of these factors in, in saying that, uh, we may wind up seeing these first round games wind up being in
4:55
Vegas or LA or w- wherever. Ah. So, uh, it, it, um, it does not surprise me. It disappoints me, because I love the, I love the fact that you're getting a home field advantage, uh, in, in the first round.
5:08
I think you should. But, um, ho- hopefully, hopefully I'm wrong and it is just a little bit of anomaly, but I am, uh, but I, I think it potentially could be a thing.
5:17
That's, n- now that you mention it, I do remember that Derek rant. This, this was- Yeah... Derek's way of saying it should be in Vegas. Oh, yeah. So- This round should be in Vegas...
5:24
and going back to that Florida State example, like, I mean, Chris knows this as well as anybody, like, Florida State, Florida doesn't compare to Florida State, Miami in Tallahassee- Well-...
5:31
because Florida State, Miami is never on Thanksgiving weekend. There's always way more students there, so.
5:36
And, and, and that, and that's the thing a lot of people are arguing right now, are saying, "Oh, it's only a one-year thing," because, uh, you, you get Penn State, Alabama, or P- uh, Notre Dame, Miami, or whatever.
5:47
You, it's not gonna be an issue. But the fact that you have Penn State, SMU, uh, i, i, in, as a g- as, as a game is not necessarily going to draw as many people as, a- as the game that you're getting right now.
5:58
So we'll see what happens. All right. Before we get your college football, uh, plays here, how many Emmys is that behind your head there, Chris? I just don't, just wondering. Uh, I, I don't, I've lost count-[laughs]
6:10
I was actually wondering about the football helmets Ah, I'm law scout. I'm law scout There's too many Yeah, no, I, I, I got, I got a, a few of the...
6:14
I actually ordered a couple more downstairs, but I'm, I've got 'em from, uh, SportsCenter producer, GameDay producer, uh, World Cup, um, Megacast, all, about, about, about Amazon.
6:27
Yeah, I got a b- I got a bunch back there. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'm sure they, uh, I'm sure- And they were all legally obtained and, uh... I know everyone's gonna say, "Oh, he got all... He was part of that rigged ESPN.
6:37
He shouldn't have gotten any, any..." No. Yeah. No thank. Uh, I hope ESPN's aware of those Emmys. I really do. Oh, they are. I know. Don't worry. Um, okay. You have nothing in the Cure Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl today.
6:49
Let's get that out of the way. Nothing. No, I, I have not even watched second of any of these games. Uh, that's why I'm giving out, like, Netflix Prime doc. Yeah, I, I just, I just can't do it. I, I am excited.
7:00
I will be watching obviously the playoffs tonight, uh, but yeah, I got nothing in the, uh, nothing in these early games.
7:05
The o- the only, the only thing, I don't even wanna like say the early games that I bet because, like, uh, the, the lines have moved and they're gone.
7:13
But I, I made a couple of bets in some non, uh, playoff type bowls, but then the b- but the numbers are no longer there, so it's irrelevant. All right.
7:20
Well, what about Notre Dame, Indiana tonight, the first of the games? Yeah, I bet under 51 and a half, like at the open, and I, and I thought that was gonna be the best of the number.
7:29
And like 51 and a half is still there. It clicked to 52 briefly. But like I don't necessarily mind being a- against a little bit of a move like that.
7:39
I just think if you look at Indiana and the best defenses they played this year, Michigan and Ohio State, they didn't have 400 yards combined in the two games. Uh, Wark couldn't complete a pass against Ohio State.
7:51
Uh, the weather's gonna be bad, so I wonder how they're gonna do against a really good Notre Dame defense. That on the flip side, Indiana's front is good.
7:59
Like, I don't trust Bradley Leonard and, and those wide receivers to be able to make plays, uh, a- against Indiana. I don't know how much Love is gonna be able to run.
8:08
Uh, the O- Notre Dame offensive line is really good, but at the same time, I, I see a lot of, a lot of empty possessions here.
8:14
So I would still play, uh, u- under 51 and a half with that number still being out there, even though, uh, the market really hasn't reacted the way I thought it would in this game.
8:23
Irish down to a six and a half point favorite in some spots, uh, tonight's ballgame. And the winner- Yeah, that, that, that surprises me Yeah I, I hear...
8:30
I heard, um, I heard John Murray talk about like how, how like Indiana was a very, very, uh, big side that people came in at the Super Book and like the Super Book needed, uh, Notre Dame.
8:42
If you're into rooting for the Books, um, you, you can, uh, you can root for Notre Dame to- you can root for Notre Dame tonight 'cause the Books are, the Books are in the rare spot of needing Notre Dame, I think. Wow.
8:50
Um- It's- The winner of that, of course, takes on a Carson Beckless Georgia team, by the way. Yeah. What about tomorrow? Tripleheader of college football playoff first-rounders. What do you got?
9:00
I love Ohio State tomorrow. Uh, I laid, I, I laid seven when there was quickly a seven out there briefly.
9:09
Um, it's seven and a half, and the fact that, uh, the number has not come back to seven, um, tells me that the Books are very comfortable going into this game needing, uh, Ohio State.
9:21
They're comfortable with all of the Tennessee exposure.
9:23
Again, I think if you look at the games on the road this year that Tennessee has played, the true road games, I'm not counting Vandy because that was like a 50/50 crowd at, at worst.
9:32
Uh, but you look at Arkansas, you look at Oklahoma, you look at Georgia, uh, Nico Iamaleava did not complete very many passes downfield.
9:40
I think he had 580 yards maybe in the, in the three games combined, one touchdown pass.
9:46
Um, yeah, uh, Tennessee defense is good, uh, and it travels, but I think you're gonna see Ohio State in this game, uh, kinda like the, the... They have a Michigan problem, i- is the problem that they have.
9:57
They w- they win against all these other good teams. Uh, Oregon was a one-point loss in Eugene. Yeah, fine, they, they, they lost a road game by a point, but they have this game at home.
10:06
I, I think they go out there and just throw caution to the wind. Uh, I think they go out. I think, uh, Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown, uh, at about plus 105 is what I played it at.
10:15
I don't know what the, the number is right now. I'm not sure it's not too much different. But, uh, I think Ohio State goes out tomorrow and, uh, and wins by double digits.
10:23
I know I am, uh, completely oppo nearly everybody in the, in that market, but I think Ohio State is being slept on a little bit.
10:32
Uh, I think there's a little bit too much of an overreaction to what we saw in that Michigan game. This is still a team that is very, very capable of winning four games and winning the national title.
10:41
Yeah, you've said since this matchup was determined that Tennessee is a way too popular dog for, for, for your liking. Uh, anything in the other two or no?
10:50
I played Clemson's team total under 19 and a half, uh, in that game. I just...
10:55
You look at Clemson and the two SEC defenses they faced this year, uh, s- got a field goal in the opening game against Georgia, where they have 14 points on their home field against South Carolina, both blowout losses.
11:05
I don't know how they move the ball on the road against a defense that is probably better, uh, than both of those defenses they played already this year.
11:13
Uh, it's just gonna be a lot of improv from Kate Clubbing that maybe the game gets out of hand and they get some points late in the game. But, uh, Clemson under 19 and a half was a play that I liked. And
11:23
I am waiting to see if we're gonna get a nine with SMU.
11:26
If it goes to nine, again, nine's not necessarily a super key number, but it would just make me feel better that i- i- if somehow you get, you got a weird combination of plays that caused it to land on nine, I'd feel better.
11:38
Because I think what the Penn State defense was exposed to against Oregon, SMU does a lot of the similar type of things with Kevin Jennings and Breshad Smith, the wide receivers that they have, and Oregon moved the ball at ease.
11:49
Now it's, it's not Dillon Gabriel and Tez Johnson and all the players that Oregon has, but it would not surprise me at all to see SMU go up there on Saturday and hang around in this game.
11:58
If a team wins the national championship from this weekend, it would be? Ohio State. If a team gets b- uh, upset outright this week, it will be? Penn State. Thank you, sir. You're welcome.
12:10
Chris Fallica, the bear, @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A on Twitter. Thank you, sir. Coming back with Fezzik in studio next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:28
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12:55
Back on a numbers game, it's Gill Alexander. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, Ryan Hyde. It's a Christmas miracle. Chris Fallica on a great, clear, solid connection this morning with Gill and Kelly.
13:03
Gonna be a special hour number two. TheRealJoby, "Will you be providing an update to the ANG Christmas song power rankings this year?" Yes.
13:13
He said, "If so, where does Boyz II Men and Brian McKnight's Christmas opus, Let It Snow rank in the pantheon of all-time Christmas songs?" Absolutely, I will update the all-time Christmas, uh, list.
13:23
Uh, 'cause who doesn't love Christmas and who doesn't love Christmas songs? And who doesn't love a Christmas song ranking list from a middle-aged tribesman, I ask you rhetorically.
13:32
Colin Murphy, uh, oh, "Would Chris lay alt spreads with the Buckeyes?" Or he did lay alt spreads with the Buckeyes. Let's go. And Chris Fallica endorses that. Uh, Brandon Kyle, shout-out from Branch 84.
13:43
Oh, that's the post office in, uh, Pittsburgh. Happy holidays. Uh, Rick Olea, "Never seen Big Lebowski?" Well, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man.
13:50
[laughs] Juan Encarnacion, as he always just puts out a random baseball player.
13:54
Uh, Fallica also, before we get to Fezzik here, also wanted to say before he got a chance, uh, uh, the commercial came, but he also wanted to say that, uh, he is betting in soccer Atletico Madrid, Atleti, to win La Liga at plus 470 with the caveat that you must bet them prior to tomorrow's game.
14:12
So Atletico Madrid plus 470 in La Liga from Chris Fallica.
14:17
Which brings us to Steve Fezzik in studio, ladies and gentlemen, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day and the worst human being ever on Twitter, but actually kind of nicer in real life.
14:28
It's Steve Fezzik. How you doing, man?
14:29
The irony is, you know, Will Hill and I, we have this group text with, and the Bear's on it also, and Todd's on it, and we quote The Big Lebowski, not a Christmas movie, at non- in, nonstop, and you're on that, and so- And I have no idea what you guys are talking about...
14:44
you have no idea what we're talking about. One of the great scenes of all time is John Goodman takes a baseball bat to a sports car o- on the street shouting obscenities.
14:53
It, it could be the funniest scene I've ever seen in a movie other than the bowling scene. Shomer Shabbos. I'll take your word for it.
15:01
Hey, that guy's, that gu- that gu- that guy might, might be a real you know what, but he can really roll. Bowling reference. The only thing I know is the Shomer Shabbos stuff. [laughs] Shomer Shabbos.
15:10
Um, okay, before we get into now what, what, uh, Steve always does on the show is not only do you have your picks for week 16 in the National Football League, but you also have your lookaheads for week 17.
15:19
But you wanted to, you were struck by a segment that I did earlier this week with Gina Fiore, who is an advantage player. Um, she did, she was a dealer at a casino.
15:32
She then decided to go to the other side, if you will, and, uh, one of the things she did for many, many years was hole carding, and you were struck by this conversation.
15:40
Yeah, and well, what really stands out, if you can just find one thing that you can exploit and take advantage of that people are kind of unaware of, you can make so much more money.
15:52
I, all, all these ex- these experts, they give you terrible advice.
15:55
They're like, "Oh, it's fairly easy to create a top-down betting model, and all you need is some basic Python, um, coding skills," and th- th- th- th- th- it's like that movie The Running Man. Killian is lying to you.
16:08
He's telling you how to win in the most ridiculous ways. How about Gina's method?
16:12
Hey, wait for a dealer to sh- well, like one out of 300 dealers shows you their hole card, and now when you have 13 and the dealer has a four up, but you know they have a six in the hole, you hit your 13 against a four, and the casino personnel are too square to realize obviously, it, it's obvious you must be a hole carder if you're winning.
16:30
But they, they're like, "That, that, that, that player's an idiot. You know, they're, they're, they're hitting 13s against fours, and they're standing on 16s against nines. They must be like a nice and easy customer."
16:41
And it just shows how just having one knowledge, piece of knowledge most people don't have, you can win big. I, I think it's just a g- I think it's a great reminder for everybody, right?
16:49
'Cause yeah, we do assume, that, that's the thing. We do, we, we... Listen, I know you, when you were talking about modelers, you say it with a certain, uh, tone to your voice. Well, it's just really hard.
16:59
But it's real- That's what, that's what I wanted to get at. Yeah. It's, it's not the easiest for people. We also make the mistake, I think, when we hear that anybody has a model.
17:08
For some reason, most people's brains immediately toggle to, "Well, that person must be smart," or, "That person must be sharp." No, a model is input in, in, you know, and then whatever you put in, it spits out.
17:21
Not all models are good, right? So it's, it shouldn't be just the assumption that, oh, if you model, you must be good at it. So it, so it's hard. It's not foolproof is what I'm getting at.
17:30
And, and it can work, and then it can fail later on when- That's-... the parameters of the world change. That's correct. It, it's a moving target at all times. Mm-hmm. That's right.
17:37
Bob, for instance, the, the pioneer, is coming on here momentarily after you. Constantly tweaking. Constantly tweaking over the years. Do you know how many conversations I had with Bob?
17:44
Too many to count over the years when we were working together, where he's like, "Yeah, I added this layer to my," and then he would inevitably, he'd have too many layers, and he said, "I gotta pare it back.
17:54
It's too much paralysis- Mm-hmm... by analysis." So it really is a, what you're saying is, is very true.
17:59
It is a, it sound, and to most listeners, and correctly so, will sound like a mountain, and if you don't have the background in it, maybe you're not inclined to do that. I think, I think you're right. Sometimes we
18:12
We make it hard. Listen, it's hard to win. It is. Don't wanna act like it's not. But if you can find something to exploit, what- whatever that is, right? What- Maybe it's a single sport...
18:22
maybe it's as specific as live wagering in the final two minutes of a game. Yes. All right? To use an example, and like Will Hill has famously, you know, given out several winners, the betting markets are wrong.
18:34
All these ESPN percent chance of winning stuff- Oh, those are awful... is incorrect because they're based- Yeah...
18:38
upon 10 years of data and like, and in the new NFL, the bottom line is if you're down six and you got yourself the ball, you have an excellent chance to win, even with a s- an average offense, because it's just so much easier to score now than it ever has in the end game.
18:54
Uh, it was the one that we were, we gave this example on a megapod 'cause we, on our group thread when we were doing this.
18:59
Well, I think it was the Michigan State North Carolina basketball game a couple weeks ago, don't hold me to that, but it was, you know, it was a nip and tuck basketball game, and then when it got to overtime, bookmaker throws out a line right before overtime, right?
19:10
Obviously you're tied, and Michigan State was like, you know, plus 147. Mm-hmm. I don't care who was plus 147, I don't think that was accurate in that game. Right?
19:20
But yeah, it, it, it's great, like just pricing overtimes, for instance. Yes. Like, like I'll, I'll give an example.
19:26
Like Saint Mary's was like a 20-point favorite and they were like up two at the end of the game, and I was salivating because I'm like, "Please go to overtime." Please go to overtime. That's right.
19:32
And, and here's why, because like when you have a monster favorite,
19:36
even though they play even for s- for 40 minutes, like the, the, that, as sure as the sun's gonna come up tomorrow, Saint Mary's is gonna win by eight in overtime.
19:44
The, the, the favorite is going to win, the big favorite, when they go to overtime, especially if they're vulnerable in the r- at the end of the game. Yeah.
19:51
Famously, like the University of Dayton played UCLA in 1973 and it went three overtimes and Dayton lost by 11. It's like there was no chance that Mike Sylvester was, and, and company was gonna win that third overtime.
20:01
Yeah. W- well, I should clarify 'cause we often say overtime is where underdogs go to die, right? Yeah. But yes, in a ga- in a game like that one, though- But a competitive game, obviously different. Yeah...
20:09
obviously, y- you know. Right. Izzo versus w- what do we, what do we always say? August, September, Oc- Izzo? No, I know it's not those months.
20:15
But it was, in that game, it was just like how can one team in a five-minute, you are betting on a five-minute event now, obviously with, with foul trouble and, and what have you, but there was no way it should've been that.
20:26
And some, most books will not put out a line at that moment, right? But when they- Or they, or they'll, they'll, they'll copy a line Or they'll copy a line. Oh, and, and this- Yes... people never talk about that.
20:36
They're like, "Oh, the Vegas knows," and that's why the, there's so many, you know, bright lights.
20:40
A- a- and like I assure you, if most of these books had put out their own line, and every now and then they do, and it's like, like p- people make a living, like the ELHOOS of the world, running around like salivating.
20:52
It's like, "Ooh- Yeah... the Coast is gonna try to put their own props up today," you know? Yeah. [laughs] Um, instead of just copying what Kornegay and his folks would put up at the West Gate. Yes.
21:00
But, but the Gina thing was so great, and Gina was awesome.
21:02
She's, what a great storyteller she is when she, when she gets into, you know, describing things, um, that she was, you know, she was counting cards and until she became aware of this easier thing to do.
21:15
Counting cards sucks. Yeah. You have like a half percent advantage net- Yeah... and, and you get thrown out left and right and, and you have such a tiny edge. It's such a square way to try to have an advantage.
21:25
Well, it's like the famous, uh, you know, bringing down the house story from the MIT blackjack team where, you know, you just have to have the ability to overcome the negative variance.
21:33
Remember there was that one scene where they were down hundreds of thousands of dollars and they're like in the hotel room like, "No, this is supposed to work and we keep doing it," and they did, right?
21:42
They remained steadfast. Next thing you know, he's got $900,000 in a bag under his lounge chair at the pool. Yeah, but think about this. Yeah. 55%, okay? Yeah. That's as good as it gets.
21:51
That's like a running count, true count of plus 10 in blackjack. That's like ba- bazillions. Whatever you can get out there. In poker, you got pocket queens against an ace king off suit, that's like 56%.
22:01
You know what that is in poker? That, my friend, is a coin flip. That's why you wanna play poker for a living. It's a lot easier. You play poker at all? Oh, yeah. You do still? Oh, I, yeah, but I, I don't have much time.
22:13
You know, I've like, people like, they're like, they rip on me all over the place because I'm not a nice person on Twitter.
22:18
I think that might, might have something to do it, but, but I, I, I go back, like I used to play on Andy296. I was on Shark Scope. I won like 100,000, you know, like in a couple years playing.
22:27
I'm a good poker player, and people are like, "Oh, that guy can't play poker." My m- number one piece of poker advice, if you wanna become a profitable poker player and you've got...
22:35
It would take me about three weeks to teach you, and people hate this. They hate it. Learn to play short stacked, b- big, short stack. Try to find a game you can buy in for 30 big blinds or less.
22:44
If you're a really good short stack player, you can beat Phil Hellmuth. You can be a player with the nine best players in the world, and you will beat them if you have the short stack and they all have big stacks.
22:52
It's totally counterintuitive. Steve Fezzik, everybody. He's got his week 16 plays in the NFL on the other side, his week 17 lookaheads as well. Eh, maybe I'll ask him why he's so mean on Twitter.
23:04
See if he can ever change. I don't think he can. Can't help himself. Coming back, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:17
Wanna become a sharper bettor this holiday season? VSiN has the ultimate gift for you or the sports bettor in your life. Right now, take advantage of our holiday special.
23:25
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23:29
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Everything you need to win big this season. Make this holiday season unforgettable with the gift of smarter betting. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now and unwrap your winning edge today. Let's go, Alexander.
23:54
We get tweets that beat the book. I just wanna read this one 'cause I wanna talk to Fezzik here.
23:57
[laughs] But he says, uh, Robert Mahmoud says, "Did anyone notice Roach give Davis a congrats pat in the second quarter after a first down run?" I did not. He says, "Nice to see that from opponents during a game.
24:08
Love your show, Gil, and never send my condolences to you. Happy Hanukkah." Thank you, Robert Mahmoud. I did not notice that. A little sportsmanship.... although, uh, it goes a long way. We always love to see that.
24:17
Just as long as no one gets hurt, and it's fair play. That's all we care about. Steve Fezzik is here in studio at Circa. Uh, he's the only back-to-back winner, again, of the Hilton Super Contests.
24:25
How'd you do in the contest this year? Not so good? Bad year in the contests. I have, like, one man standing. Not the one man standing contest, but the Westgate Season Wins Super Contest, I am projecting 23 and 9. Oh.
24:39
And my tiebreaker is Kansas City to win 13 games. So that's gonna be a really good tiebreaker, so. What's the pot there? First prize, 26,000. All right, you'll take that. Bold prediction, gonna win it.
24:49
[laughs] Okay, I like it. Bold- By the way, uh, you did not invest. Last year you famously invested in a remaining survivor entry down the stretch.
24:59
Uh, more famously than that, you ended up taking a photo with the check [laughs] and also got yourself- [laughs] And the jacket... also got yourself a jacket. You are not invested in anybody's this year? I am not.
25:09
And, you know, Crack, you know, he said he had some, some folks that were interested and the like, but frankly, what I found was it was just exhausting last year. Exhausting.
25:19
Gilly and I, I would be sending him texts- Oh my God...
25:21
and it'd be like, like, just the logistics of it, the taxation of it, the, the legality of, of, like, the, you know, having a, a, like, a, a, f- an informal contract, and Greg Jones.
25:34
Nothing but great things to say about Greg and how that played out. But- And famously- You-... you know, we wound up getting, you know- Right... the 2.3 million, and I was, uh, you know, a part of that.
25:42
But to your point, if you don't know the person, you have to trust the person, right? Yes. Yeah. And I was lucky that I work with a great guy like Greg. Yeah.
25:47
But it's just, it, it's really hard to go from never working with someone at all to now l- l- l- like, I was, uh, I was literally trying to talk Greg off the ledge a few weeks when he wanted- Yeah...
25:59
to go for the whole pot and play for, like, an underdog, like, like, week 17. Hmm. It, it, it is. That's what I...
26:06
That was my takeaway last year because before last year, if you remember this, people, this'll get lost to history.
26:11
Before last year, that portion of survivor, it may have existed, but we didn't really talk about it so much. It wasn't that widespread. Last year it became an epidemic. Absolutely.
26:23
And, you know, I think these s- is it survivor swap where they're buying- Yes... and selling shares makes so much sense.
26:27
You know, I gotta say, I'm, I'm actually angry at some of the people giving advice that don't actually do this themselves. They're like, "Well, you can just hedge and make, ma- make a profit."
26:36
Yeah, I'll just come up with like, oh, it's week 13, so I'll, I'll just, I'll just come up with my 200,000 to hedge. Yeah. And then if that lose, no, no problem. I can get some credit somewhere and put 400,000.
26:45
It's like, you know, literally it's like, "Kelly, get on the button." F you. I mean, F you. Like, oh, I'll just have a million dollars lying around on Christmas night. Don't have any problem with the family.
26:58
I'll just call Gilly. I'll dr- [laughs] I'll swing by. [laughs] Can a guy just go to the Bellagio and pick up a mil? I need to hedge my, my Christmas week B week. Do we need the dump button on that?
27:07
I prob- we probably don't need the dump button on that. Um, yeah. I mean, it's hard. Well, well listen, the cleanest way is still to just sell off percentages. Yes. That's still the cleanest way to do it.
27:17
Uh, Crack is, uh, has a percentage in one. I have a very small percentage in Jake's. Excellent. Um, but I, uh, but we are not involved in, in any picking or anything.
27:26
But you, you were so stressed that I just remember, I'm like, "Wow, this is worse than the stress of the game itself." Well, well the problem is that we're in an industry, this is the time of year we're already stressed.
27:36
We're already managing family- Yeah... with holidays- Yep...
27:39
with all the games going on, and clients wanting winners, and going on Twitter and saying you're an idiot when you're hitting 50% for the year like I am in football, rightly so.
27:48
I mean, I'm supposed to be the expert, so I'm having a down football year, and I feel bad about it. You ever gonna be nicer on Twitter or probably not?
27:55
I, I, I, uh- What is it inside of you, Steve Fezzik, that m- that makes you have to be this person on Twitter? I, I... You know what? I blame the social media around me. Oh. I'm just, I'm just part of- Okay...
28:07
the problem. I'm, now I'm part of the problem. Oh, blame everybody else. [laughs] All right. What do you have, what do you have this week in the NFL? All right. So this week, um, I'll give one play.
28:16
Uh, I'm sorry, Kelly, I didn't, I didn't give this to you before. We're gonna take, go Monday Night Football. We're gonna take the Packers first half, minus seven and a half. Oh.
28:24
That's, um, Packers have been, uh, point of emphasis, come out strong. Uh, Cobra Kai, strike first, strike hard, no mercy. Cobra Kai. Love it. So Packers first half, minus seven and a half.
28:34
Sorry, Kelly, I didn't give that to you. Previously last week I gave out two plays. One is really good. The Eagles commanders under 48. It's down to 45 and a half, so if we got in good, and you bet it, excellent.
28:45
The second one, Browns, Bengals over 49. I'm sorry, DTR is starting for the Browns, and that's really bad for our over.
28:53
But I did wanna emphasize, people have asked me, "Steve, if you don't like a bet anymore, I should just cash it out, right?" No. Even though it's a bad bet, it's even worse to cash out and eat the loss.
29:02
Just root to get lucky. Sometimes you're gonna make a bad bet and you just gotta get lucky, and you're not gonna win. You know, like, that bet's not gonna win 50% of the time. It's fine. Just roll with it. Yeah.
29:12
I didn't. I got out. I didn't want any part of the DTR experience. I do like- I don't blame you...
29:15
I do like the fact that the total went down in that Commanders Eagles game, 'cause I do have the Cam- uh, the Commanders plus three and a half. And to be honest- Yeah...
29:21
at 45 and a half, I'd, I would lean over right now. Yeah. All right? But I still love under 48. Look ahead. Week 17 in the National Football League. Let's go.
29:30
Let's talk- The penultimate week in the National Football League. I'll do the totals first. So, uh, the D- Detroit Lions, they don't have any defenders left, so over 51 and a half. And I love the Dan Campbell famously.
29:43
You brought this up. The man likes to, like, go for it fourth and 19- He loves it... from his own 12. He loves it. Exaggerating slightly. Yeah. Yeah. So Detroit, San Fran over the 51 and a half. Carolina, Tampa Bay.
29:54
Tampa Bay not so quietly is a dead nuts over team. I, uh, th- this is a prevalent number out there. I don't understand why. It's a go on Carolina, Tampa Bay, over 47 and a half.
30:04
And one more here- And Gilley, I know you're the resident Washington Football Team expert. I, I don't understand this line.
30:11
It's at DraftKings, and only DraftKings, let me disclose that, so I can't give it out to my clients 'cause it's not widely available. However, you can bet it at DK. Atlanta plus five at Washington.
30:20
So the only way I can get to this number, I have to say Washington is two points better than an average team, and Atlanta's two points worse. Now, I can get there with Washington being two points better.
30:29
I cannot throw Atlanta into the dumpster fire of being a minus two team. I think they're closer to an average team. Not to mention, At- Atlanta will need the game like blood.
30:41
Hey, if they run the table, they got two other cupcake games. That's the only game they're an underdog. They're gonna force Tampa Bay to win each and every week. Right.
30:47
Except for the fact, though, that they have a quarterback who has never played in NFL, you know, has never started an NFL game before. Mm-hmm. So that could...
30:53
I mean, if he, if he comes out and is terrible this week, you're gonna get the worst of that probably. Um, yes, but I would think that Atlanta knows what they have in Penix, all right? And so- One, one would hope...
31:04
and, I mean, obviously they're not playing for the future with this move. They, the playoffs are in sight. So as bad as Kirk Cousins has been, he's still just a slightly below quarterback.
31:14
Very slightly below average quarterback for the year. So Atlanta's telling me they feel Penix is at least at that level, or they would not have made this change. So I'm trusting the Atlanta Football Team organization.
31:26
You are chest- You are trusting Raheem Morris and the Atlanta Falcons. Yes.
31:30
Uh, I, by the way, I love, you know, Kirk Cousins, again, for, no matter what you say about him on a football field, Kirk Cousins, by all accounts, nicest guy in the world.
31:38
It, it was, I thought it was fascinating because that's about as chesty or angry as Kirk Cousins gets when he says, "I haven't forgotten how to play football."
31:47
Like, that's the, that's the most he allowed himself to get angry about it. He has forgotten how to run a 40 in 5.1, unfortunately. He has forgotten how to... Three scrambles all year.
31:57
[laughs] Is that- Think about how, how difficult... You know, the irony is, is I don't... Like, Penix doesn't run. He's a pocket passer. By the way, thank you for bringing that up.
32:04
I have found that to be borderline profiling this week for most sports people, where they're like, "Oh yeah, you get the much more mobile Michael Penix on there." Michael Penix is not that.
32:16
He is not- Michael Penix- Yeah... has a really great touch w- on the ball, and he's a cerebral quarterback. Yes. And I have not heard that. I have not heard that for a minute. Hmm. Ha. Hmm. Hmm. If I could- Hmm...
32:27
what does, what does Bill Maher say? "If I could only put my finger on what that could be." Um, okay. So next week, Falcons plus the points against the perhaps playoff-bound Washington Commodores. We'll see.
32:40
Uh, Panthers, Buccaneers over 47 and a half, and the Lions, Niners over 51 and a half. Week 17 of the National Football League. And again, this week, uh, you have the Browns, Bengals over 49.
32:50
You got the Eagles and the Commodores under 48. That has moved, obviously. But you do, you did take the Monday night game. I'm adding the Packers, not for the game, but for the first half. The first half.
32:59
Minus seven and a half, widely available. It won't be, bold prediction, come Monday. And, and don't be a square ball. Don't go and lay n- minus nine right before the game kicks off. Play it now.
33:11
Believe it or not, eight's actually a key number in the first half, 14 to 6. Um, you know, two, two touchdowns versus a two field goal matchup. Yeah. We'll have Packers and survivors, so I hope you're right.
33:19
I hope you win that bet. Todd Bubba Horowitz, "Steve is a victim of the cowards on social media that wouldn't have the stones to make those comments to his face. Keep it up, Steve. Screw the cowards."
33:29
And then, uh, Wise Guy- [laughs]... Wise Guy, Wise Guy Live, he says, "Love it when you and Fezz talk different sports betting topics when you have 'em on, just like with crack. Can listen all day."
33:39
So we appreciate you, man. Thank you very much. Hey, if you really wanna win gambling and you don't have much time, I would say poker.
33:45
No limit poker is probably the fastest way, like, uh, like, if you met with me, within a week I could have you winning short stack. It's so simplistic. You don't make a lot of friends playing that way.
33:55
You know what, as Gordon Gekko said, "You want a friend? Get a dog." Steve Fezzik, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game. Dr. Bob is next.
34:02
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Coming up top of the hour, Money Moves with Stormy Boni-Tony.
34:19
Stormy have, uh, Jeff Schwartz in today? It's gonna, it's actually gonna be neither of those. It's gonna be, uh, Patrick Maher, uh, hosting the show today, Money Moves.
34:28
Prop Points with John Hanson after that, 2:00 to 3:00 PM Eastern. Then Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 PM coming up at VSiN, the sports betting network. Stormy's got, uh, an assignment this week.
34:40
I think Stormy's doing the FCS game tomorrow morning. So she's got a, uh, she's on the travel. She's on, she's on the move with her travel today. GBank's Best Bets of the Day. GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
34:53
We do this every day on every show here on the network. Just as a recap for all the picks made. Uh, once again, I've got two NFL plays.
34:59
I'm on the Commanders plus three and a half versus the Eagles, and I added the Bears plus six and a half versus the Lions.
35:06
That could be fun to live through that, but I think that's too many points against the banged-up Lions team. Kelly's got the Heat tonight against the Thunder.
35:13
By the way, uh, Kelly played two, uh, NBA games last night, and he won, uh, against the spread by, like, a combined 70-plus points, 'cause I think he faded the Warriors last night.
35:22
He's got the Heat plus a point and a half versus the Thunder.
35:25
Then in football, he is on the Rams laying the three versus the Jets, the first time those two teams have met since that fateful 2020 game that killed all of us in Survivor.
35:36
Then he's got the Ravens-Bucks money line parlay for, uh, short plus money.
35:40
He's got the Bucs team total over 26 and a half, and he's on the Giants-Falcons under at 42 in what ought to be a, uh, barn burner of a game, he says sarcastically.
35:51
Well, it's Michael Penix's first start, so that should be fun. Jason Weingarten had a couple plays. He's, uh, got a play in the Cure Bowl, which starts this morning. Ohio laying the six versus Jacksonville State.
36:00
He did have the money line on Ohio, but the money line is now prohibitively priced. He too is on the Rams laying the points versus the New York Jetropolitans. Chris Felica was all over the place.
36:10
First of all, in soccer, he's got Atlético Madrid, Atleti as they call them, plus 470 versus Levante Las Planas. That's tomorrow, but he says make that... By the way, that's not in that match.
36:20
Uh, that's, that's incorrect. Yeah, the plus 470 is for them to win La Liga. Um, make that bet before they play Levante Las Planas. Uh, then in college football, he's got, uh, Indiana Notre Dame under 51 and a half.
36:33
Uh, that is tonight. Go back to the, uh, Chris Felica graphic, guys. Uh, he's got the, he's got the Buckeyes tomorrow night laying the, uh, tomorrow I should say, laying the seven versus Tennessee.
36:43
Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown by the way as well at plus 105, and the Clemson team total under 19 and a half as the college football playoff begins tonight with one game, three games tomorrow.
36:54
Paul Carr, two in Premier League, in the Prem tomorrow, one on Sunday. Aston Villa double chance versus Man City tomorrow. Ipswich Town over a half first, uh, over a half first half goals, plus 135 versus Newcastle.
37:06
And then on Sunday, Bournemouth double chance at Man U. And finally, Steve Fezzik, uh, this week he's got the Browns Bengals over 49.
37:15
He's got the Eagles and the Commanders under 48, but that has moved considerably at this point. He does have the Packers in the first half on Monday night, though. He added that one.
37:23
And then the lookaheads for Steve Fezzik, uh, for week 17. He's got the Falcons plus the points versus Washington. He's got Panthers Buccaneers over 47 and a half, and the Lions Niners over 51 and a half.
37:37
Again, those are lookaheads to week number 17. Best bets brought to you by gbank, the official bank of VSiN. VSiN recommends every bettor make the gbank Visa signature card part of their betting toolbox.
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38:12
Skill Alexander, which brings us to, uh, the third and anchor position of our Felika Fezzik Dr. Bob final hour here on Friday on a Numbers Game. It's Dr.
38:22
Bob Stoll, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line at DRBobSports on Twitter, drbobsports.com. He joins us now from outside of Denver, Colorado. How you doing, Bob? Good.
38:33
God, is there any time left for me after that long, uh, rundown? Sorry, so many picks. We had to get to the picks, Bob. I apologize. Uh- I have one. [laughs] You have one. Okay, well, good. That works out.
38:44
Let me ask you just a couple rapid, let me ask you a couple rapid fire ad-lib questions, though.
38:48
I've asked this of every college football guest I've had on this week, so I just wanna ask it of you real quick before we get to your play tonight, which is, if I came to you from the future and I said, "Hey, Bob, a team from the first round, a team from these games today or tomorrow ends up winning the national championship," that team most likely would have been or would be?
39:09
Ohio State. Ohio State. And the second question is, of these four games, which are all big spreads, right? Six and a half, seven is the lowest. Tonight's game, Notre Dame and Indiana,
39:21
team most likely to lose outright of the big favorites this weekend is? I think Indiana. I mean, I think Notre Dame- Notre Dame... is the most likely, yeah- Okay... to lose, and that's the game we're gonna talk about.
39:34
Let's talk about that game. What do you got? Well, um, first of all, Indiana is deserving of being in the playoffs.
39:41
They had one bad game, and it was against a good team, of course, but a lot of teams would've lost at Ohio State.
39:47
Uh, almost every team in the playoffs would've lost at Ohio State, and I don't know how many of those teams would've gone undefeated and beaten everybody by 25 points a game if they played Indiana's schedule.
39:56
So let's put that to bed. But the one thing that does bother me about Indiana is their offense performance against the Buckeyes. Um, especially since they're playing another elite defense in Notre Dame today.
40:08
Uh, for the season, Indiana's offense was very good.
40:10
They averaged 6.7 yards per play against FBS opponents that would combine to av- allow 5.5 to an average team, so they were 1.2 yards per play better than an average offensive team.
40:20
But they only averaged 3.1 yards per play against the Buckeyes. Now, they did play some other good defensive teams and, and did relatively fine, so I, it's just one game.
40:29
Um, and it doesn't mean just 'cause they couldn't move against Ohio State that they s- can't move against a good, a good, uh, a very good defense, because drawing conclusions from a sample of one is, is foolish.
40:39
There is a way to weigh that game more heavily, though, and I do this often in the bowl games, and it's worked throughout the years, is I use a regression analysis.
40:48
And, and, and doing so will, will, will put more weight on that particular game.
40:54
In this case, the regression analysis used the level of the opposing defenses adjusted for site, uh, to predict Indiana's yards per play in the 10 FBS games that Curtis Rourke played, has a slope of 1.51.
41:06
That means that for every yard per play better the defense is, Indiana's offense does half a yard worse.
41:13
So there, if, if, if there was no correlation at all, if they played relatively the same in every game, the slope would be one, so it's 1.51.
41:20
So they have played relatively worse against better defensive teams, mostly weighed down by that one game.
41:25
But using the regression analysis I think is valid in this case, because it was, it was such a bad game offensively against, uh, against Ohio State.
41:33
Um, but using Notre Dame's defensive level, adjusted for them playing at home, would project Indiana to average 5.1 yards per play in this game, which is 0.3 yards per play less than what my model would have predicted otherwise.
41:44
So I am putting more weight on that bad, uh, offensive game against Ohio State. However, Indiana can still compete. Their defense is legit. Um, they were 1.4 yards per play better than average defensively.
41:58
Uh, 15.7 points per game, 4.4 yards per play to teams that would average 5.8 yards per play against an average defense.
42:05
The teams they faced offensively were only 0.1 yards per play worse than the teams that Notre Dame faced offensively, so it's not like they played a weak schedule of offensive teams.
42:14
Now, um, that team was also good against Ohio State. Ohio State may have scored 38 points in that game, but the Buckeyes had a season low of 316 total yards at 5.7 yards per play.
42:26
That's 1.7 yards per play better than what an average defensive team would have done against Ohio State at Ohio State.
42:33
So they have been very good defensively all year long and proved, and were actually slightly better than normal when they played Ohio State. So I, I'm not worried about Indiana's defense here. They stopped the pass.
42:42
They were the second best run defense in the country compensated next to, uh, Oklahoma. And defending the run is obviously prerequisite for beating the Irish.
42:51
The Irish average more yards on the ground than they do through the air, and, and Riley Leonard is not a particularly good passing quarterback.
42:57
He was just 0.3 yards per pass play better than an average FBS quarterback, which is not good for this level. So if you can slow down the Irish running game, then you've got a real good chance to shut down that offense.
43:09
Um, and by the way, Indiana's offense isn't the only one that was relatively worse against better defensive teams. Notre Dame's offense is slope.
43:16
If you did a regression equation between the teams they faced on defense, was 1.65. They were actually relatively...
43:22
They had a, a higher slope than Indiana, so they were worse even relatively against better defensive teams than Indiana was.
43:29
So if you make the argument that, well, Indiana struggled against, you know, good defensive teams, w- well, Notre Dame struggled even more relatively against good defensive teams.
43:36
In fact, A&M and Northern Illinois, they were completely shut down those first two games of the season against good defenses.
43:42
You can argue obviously that, well, those were Riley Leonard's first couple of games and he hadn't found his bearings yet, and, well, that's fine. That's a reasonable argument.
43:50
But e- even so, they're still relatively worse against good defensive teams even you take those two games out. So I think Indiana's offense will be able-- uh, defense will be able to slow down the Notre Dame offense.
44:02
And so I took the team total under. Uh, the team total was, uh, it was 29 earlier. I think it's down to 28 and a half. But t- Notre Dame's team total under 28 or more, uh, was the best bet for me.
44:11
And the alternate play, if you don't have team totals, would be the game under, uh, which I think now is 51 and a half. So either way. Okay. All right. Bob, we got slope in there I think maybe for the first time ever.
44:21
Regression equation. Regression analysis. Oh, man. I've talked about that before. I've talked about that before. Yeah, maybe you have.
44:26
If you had Slope and, uh, Slope and Nudnik on the same show, you really cashed a big parlay. Thank you, Bob. Appreciate it. Good luck with the bet and, uh, happy holidays. All right. Thanks, guys. Bob Stohl, everybody.
44:38
Dr. Bob at DRBobSports on Twitter. Stats major at Cal, could you tell? We've done all we can do. Money Moves is next with Patrick Maher. Enjoy from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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