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Apr 10, 2026
A Numbers Game | April 10, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | April 10, 2026 | Hour 3
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46:14
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Transcript
0:00
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0:29
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:39
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. Gil Alexander on this Friday, second round of the Masters.
0:50
Kelly's behind the glass 'cause, uh, he's making room for Fezzik here. He's about to join us. We get tweets to beat in the book. Uh, best listeners in the game. Have I mentioned that today? I really mean that.
0:58
William Wagers, uh, "Speaking of back nine score bets that you can get, Bryson over 36.5 back nine, around +110. I think if he doesn't make up ground on the front, he may be playing the back of...
1:09
more aggressively, could get away from him quickly, especially with the course conditions." Great point.
1:14
Guys who are gonna be right on the bubble, right on the cusp, gonna have to get aggressive on a course that does not demand being aggressive today.
1:23
The Auburnist, with a shout-out to Kelly, says, "Good job, Kelly, asking Chris about his strategy with horses.
1:27
I feel like horse racing suffers from people not understanding how to bet the sport, and it confuses a lot of people. Finding a beatable favorite, like Chris did, is only part of the game."
1:35
Um, Buddhist Man, "How long before Fezzik makes a move to patent/monetize What's This? Pat Riley three-peat style." [laughs] We've all lo- we've all latched onto that. That and, uh... Oh, dear.
1:49
ThreeJockH3131, "Gil, Mason Miller was 200 to 1 less than a week ago, I believe. I grabbed him 80 to 1 this morning, 'cause you never know." Yeah, now I'm seeing he's about half that. Did I do that?
2:03
Johnny B, "In Atlantic City, this is it currently." Oh, my, my play on David Bailey to go second, I got him at +230 a few days ago. He is now -130 to be the number two pick in the draft.
2:16
I hope I'm, I hope I'm ahead of that one. Bobby Geddes, "Anyone else watch more college hockey last night than they had in their entire lives?" Raising my hand, Bobby.
2:24
That was me, 'cause there was no other sport really to go with. Chris Hartman, "I wish Scottie would've brought his putter to the Masters instead of his newborn." Yeah, and he just, he barely saved par at six, Chris.
2:35
Chris, who I saw yesterday at the sportsbook. Hello, Chris, uh, great seeing you. Scottie, who bogeyed four and five, just saved par on six. You're right, the putter was awful on five.
2:44
Uh, Hidalgo, "We do a similar golf pool to Splash Sports asi- aside one difference.
2:49
Instead of eight strokes being added to the golfer that misses the cut, the golfer that misses the cut have their score doubled each day after. Love the show." Thank you, Hidalgo, appreciate it.
2:57
And Chance Copperpot, "Last week's Fezzik Fridays was one of my favorites of all time. I expect another 450-foot home run from Fezzy today. What proxy service should I use, Steven?"
3:05
Well, if only we had Steven Fezzik to answer that question. Ladies and gentlemen, time for Fezzik Fridays. Let's go.
3:10
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. The only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest.
3:22
And before you chime in, Stevie, I know he also won the second half
3:27
of, uh, of the Westgate this year, NFL handicapping, and he's won other contests beware we just highlight those 'cause otherwise we'd be here for days, Steve.
3:38
You know, it goes to show being a specialist in something's very important because no one's ever gonna confuse me as being the best, you know, handicapper or the best sports bettor in the world.
3:47
But in terms of contests, I will take my acumen and my past results up against just about anyone. Although having said that, like, and, and it's very similar to poker players, right?
3:57
Who has the highest lifetime, um, win amounts? It's always gonna be the main event winner because they're gonna, like, pick up- Right... you know, 10 mil.
4:05
And same thing with the Survivor now with, uh, the great work they've done here at Circa. What about that question from Chance Copperpot, um, proxy service that you can recommend? You know, I wish I had it ready.
4:15
Um, so Tony with, um, Foxy's Foxy Proxy or approximately that. So just query Foxy Proxy on, on X, Twitter, and she'll pop up, and I- Tony's still with Maddie? Uh, I do not know. Oh, okay. I think so. I believe so.
4:29
Yeah, I was gonna say. Yeah. Okay. Well, what's, what's their group name? You're making it sound like she's got her own thing now.
4:33
So I- I, I just know that, uh, I would always see her as I'm making the rounds, you know, literally putting- Yeah...
4:39
thousands of entries in, so I love someone that is, like, not just recruiting people but is actually doing, you know, the work and, and so I'd go with her and their group. Uh, I, uh, I mentioned a bet that you...
4:50
Yesterday on the show I mentioned a bet that you made, and I said out loud, I was like, "I don't... I didn't really understand Stevie's logic on this." Uh, this was this Masters bet that you made
5:00
under, that the, that the low round would be under 275 and a half. Yeah. Terrible bet. So- And, and I said I didn't understand the logic because of what the conditions were expected to be. Why did you make that bet?
5:11
Well, the con- the weather conditions were supposed to be great. But the course conditions, it turns out- Correct... are just s- the, the course is so rigid and firm.
5:20
And so I make the bet and then someone got back to me, uh, several people- [laughs]... like, "What, what are you smoking, Stevie?" Someone got back to me. [laughs] Uh, th- th- th- what, what's this? Completely wrong.
5:30
And so then they, the Masters starts, and I'm looking at the results coming in, like the early precincts coming in, and the polls are not being kind to my bet.
5:38
Um, okay, Fat Pat got, got to three under after two holes, but after number two- Yeah... the birdies are nonexistent. By the way, I, I don't, I don't like the Masters. I don't like the course. It's boring. What?
5:49
It's, um... It... Like, the way it's laid out now, there's, like, no- there's, like, you just try to shoot a par at every hole. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. You, you don't like the Masters?
5:55
They're trying to shoot a par. There's no... Where's the ocean? Where's, where's Lake Michigan? So what's wrong with you? We don't- You don't like the Masters? Where's Lake the... I, I, I, I don't like the course.
6:04
I like, I like the Blue Monster way better. But, hey, that's me. But the bottom line is, how am I gonna fix this? Okay, I was gonna say, so w- so we've all made terrible bets. We've all, like, uh- Yeah...
6:13
you know, we've all made bad bets. How do you, how do you adjust? So I, I, like, panic, and I'm like, I'm like, "The course is really hard. I'm just gonna go in and blast at every golfer."
6:22
I'm playing them over, basically 72 and a half was the number at most golfers, some 71 and a half. So I'm blasting every [laughs] golfer left the tee off yesterday. So I make 25 bets
6:32
over, you know, 71 and a half, 72 and a half, Scottie over s- 7 and a half. I go 15 and 10, so directionally I do good. Yeah. You know, I make some good coin. Shoulda done better. Massively unlucky.
6:43
And this goes back- Yeah... to- Yeah...
6:45
we talk about how y- as an advantage player, you're gonna get unlucky more often than not, because I shoulda won two-thirds of them, but, like, five of my 10 losses were by half a stroke, including people saving par, like s- s- some- And you probably would've gotten a better number the night before.
7:00
Um, probably. Yeah. Exactly. So- Yeah... um, an example where I wasn't on my A game, but I was on my B game- [laughs]... so it was still profitable, but- Yeah... I coulda done a whole lot better.
7:10
But it goes to show, don't have your head in the sand. When you make a bad bet, don't just go, "Well, I hope it works out."
7:16
It's like, l- like, like, e- e- and, and I'm, I'd be the first to admit, I make, you know, I have Polish middles. I bet both sides of a game. I can get middled. I can lose, you know?
7:24
And I'm like, don't just get stuck with a bad bet and don't try to fix it. I'm not sure we should use that term, Stevie, but I understand your point. Um- [laughs] Okay.
7:33
You also had a bad beat on something else last night. Xander Bogarts went yard, went grand slam last night for the Padres- [laughs]... to end the baseball night. So, shows the importance of good numbers.
7:42
So, uh, grand salami baseball, I have the road teams plus four, which starts out lousy when your r- your Red Legs- Yeah... like, lose to Miami 8-1. Sorry. But then every- Sorry... everything goes swimmingly. And
7:59
we are tied, home teams and away teams, and I've got the Padres, whose bullpen has been great. Mm-hmm. And they're tied against the Pad Squad going to extra innings.
8:09
And, like, frankly, this is, like, would be a tremendous bet, obviously, at plus one. All right? I got plus four. Can I even, like, not win? Well, I guess the Rockies could hit a grand slam home run- [laughs]...
8:21
walk-off at, with a tie game. Yeah. That is, like, what is, what is the probability of that? And, and not a home run park either, and that is exactly what happened.
8:30
And I'm not watching the game, I just look at the, my odds screen- Brutal... and three three, what? The, there's a seven they put. It's a typo. Only way we make that happen.
8:38
They meant to write four, and they put a s- Ugh. No, not a typo. No. Push. No, it was not a Robin Ventura grand slam single or anything like that.
8:46
Uh, you also mentioned that you, uh, Steve, Steve has an infatuation, uh, with grand salamis. You love the grand salamis.
8:52
You were talk- about the NHL grand salami the other day that you were in here, how it, like, landed right on the number. It happened again? Seven days ago- Yeah... every team was in action.
9:01
The grand salami was 88 and a half, and it landed 89. Last night, well, Groundhog Day, same thing. 89 was the grand salami number.
9:11
It was anywhere from 88 and a half to 89 and a half, and it lands with a whole bunch of squirrely results that it could've landed 90, it could've landed 87, but it landed 89. Yeah. Best, gotta get the best of the number.
9:24
That's, you know, the, the lesson. And, and, you know, a- and that's my theme, and people are gonna get angry at me. Like, like, you, like, you'll hear experts making recommendations on bets, and you're not gonna win.
9:35
I don't care how smart the guy is.
9:37
I- if you think you can just, I don't wanna get, like, edited with the seven-second dump, but, you know, if you think you just smoke dope all day long and just listen to a podcast and a b- a bunch of smart people say, "Here's the six guys that are gonna win the Masters," and you bet every one of them, you are not just gonna lose, you're gonna get annihilated.
9:55
Oh, I was gonna save this for the other side. Okay, so this is- Yeah, we'll save it. Yeah, no. L- l- put a pin in that for a second. Okay. Because this is a, this is a big subject, what you're talking about there. Um,
10:05
well, since you bring it up, let's just talk about it. Oh, dear. Which is, which is we have, before the Masters, we have so m- more than at any other golf tournament, right?
10:14
We have tons of, uh, we have people who have multiple, and we're gonna talk about, like, seven, eight outrights. But we see that all year long in golf too.
10:22
A lot of people have multiple outrights in every golf tournament, and that stuff adds up. And for the Masters, there's some excuse to it because it's over the wintertime, but, you know, that's, that's an excuse.
10:31
You still shouldn't have that many. This is a, it, it, it is a massive pet peeve of yours, right? Yeah. So what happens is you get some really hardworking, qualified people that win making these outright bets, all right?
10:43
But the problem is they're originating, they're getting the best of it, so they're betting Pat Reid at, at, you know, 50 to 1. Yeah. And now he's 38 to 1. And, like, what, if people want
10:58
plays, they want picks, they want outrights, and so inevitably what happens is, like, his true odds may- maybe it was, like, minus 4,500, plus 4,500, all right?
11:06
So you get the best of the number, you win, but when you get a market number...
11:10
I know guys that make lots of money betting futures, and every one of their numbers, just talking to my friend Jerry, he's like, "I'll cash my Michigan 14 to 1," bet them right before a Monday night football game.
11:19
The next morning they were five to one, all right?
11:22
Getting the best of the number is everything, especially on these futures, and the idea that you can just, like, listen to a whole bunch of experts giving out, you know, and they are experts, but giving out five, six, seven dudes, and, "Jon Rahm 10 to 1, good bet."
11:35
No, not a good bet. A very bad bet. And, like, I wish, next time you're gonna make a, you're about to take a little finger and bet Jon Rahm 11 to 1, you know, just call me, text me. I'll- So give you 12.
11:46
So for you it's not, it's not so much, well, it should be both, actually. It should be both things, and I'm sure it is both things, but in this case we're not talking about the number of outrights.
11:53
You're just talking about the price that they're getting is what bothers you first and foremost. A- a- and they're playing into a game like roulette, like Keno. Massive holes.
12:03
They're playing into a massive household- Yeah... of, of, like, 22 to 40% at various books, and you're not gonna, you, you might find one guy that, like Xander Schauffele might have value, but not 12, 15, 20 guys.
12:16
Come on Stevie's got some UFL picks and more. Next, numbers game VSiN. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:28
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:36
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro.
12:44
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:00
Right now on VSiN.com, completely free, no subscription needed, you can access MLB and NBA prop projections powered by Opta AI, plus real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa.
13:10
Pro level tools, zero cost, but only for a limited time. Head to VSiN.com and start using them today. That's V-S-I-N.com. We get tweets, beat of the book. Steve Fezzik, by the way, is here, ladies and gentlemen.
13:23
Uh, we did lose on Sorona Cirstea. Good God. Come on. Three set loser +210. Uh, Chuckism1, and, and, and again, Yulin Rune, it's just, just you gotta, you just gotta understand what's happening and
13:38
believe in the numbers 'cause they all manifest in the end. Chuckism1, "Can you ask Fezzik if he is familiar with the Monty Hall problem?" Oh, yes he is.
13:47
"And if he sees any connection to betting against one's futures in the championship game, alert math." Would you like to answer that? I would.
13:56
So the Monty Hall problem for those who didn't watch Let's Make a Deal, the contestants picked... There's two contestants in the finals. They pick curtains. One curtain has the jackpot behind it, all right?
14:08
Then Monty always shows- There's three total doors. Yeah. There's three total curtains. Yeah. And Monty always shows the first curtain, and but he never show, reveals the jackpot with the first curtain.
14:16
He's not randomly picking a curtain, he's picking a non-winning curtain. That's right. Then the contestants are asked, "Would you like to switch?"
14:24
And it turns out that, I'm, I'm gonna get all, in, in all kinds of trouble here.
14:30
A sharp seventh grader, correction, a sharp ninth grader can immediately say, "Of course I switch," because- Okay, let me, let me just stop you right there. Mm. That's incorrect.
14:39
A sharp ninth grader could not tell you that. Even adults have trouble wrapping their heads around that. Well, adults are, are stupider than sharp ninth graders.
14:48
You have, you have really prominent mathematicians who still debate this. Yeah, there, but- Yeah... th- th- th- actually, I'm, I'm gonna come over the top. Okay. That's what the, the mainstream
14:59
people say, but it's not true. It's not true. You're right. It's not true. Of like you get 10,000 University of Chicago math geeks this problem- No, no, you, you, you are-... all 10,000 get it correct immediately...
15:08
you are correct, but a sharp ninth grader does not get this. Fair, fair enough. Yeah. But the i- the idea is that you had a one-third chance of winning, all right?
15:15
And now you know Monty is not gonna reveal the jackpot, so you really are given no information by the fact that he revealed a non-jackpot.
15:24
So your chance of winning is still one-third, so with two curtains left, so you switch. You, you, when you switch now, you have a two-thirds chance of winning, so you always switch.
15:34
75% of the audience is still like, "I didn't get any of that." Well, well, well- Yeah... be- because, because it is complicated. But the, but the, the audience thinks there's two curtains left, you have a 50/50 chance.
15:42
And the truth is you had a one-third chance before, and him revealing, it's, he doesn't randomly reveal a curtain.
15:48
He reveals a curtain that is not the winning curtain, and it's not your curtain, so your odds, um, you, you should always switch. Now, the one thing about this Monty Co- Carl problem, and you could spend hours with this.
15:58
Monty Hall. You need- Monty Hall. Thank you. Yeah, mm-hmm. You need to know if Monty Hall is evil or not. That's right. Is he unbiased? Because this is the clever part.
16:06
Because maybe if Monty Hall is evil, he only gives you this possibility if you've s- chosen the winner. So if you've chosen the loser- Ah...
16:16
he, he does not let you switch, but if you choose the winner, he lets you switch. So you need to put in that caveat, I gotta make sure that Monty was gonna give me this option. Mon- Monty Hall is playing above board.
16:27
Yes. You need to, you need to know that. And as long as he's playing above board, the, the, the big picture is, and every ma- every mathematician agrees- Yeah...
16:33
you, you should indeed switch, and you will win two-thirds of the time. Yeah. That's, uh, well, well put, all true, but again, a sharp ninth grader does not know that. Um- Fair enough...
16:42
what about, what about the second part of this where he says any connection to betting against one's futures in the championship game? No, I don't see where there would be a connection. You mean your- Okay...
16:54
your, your, in your championship game future, it'd just be, you know- I'd have to know more details on that. Well, but I, I, I- Yeah... will say this, like the, the one
17:02
issue I always hear is, and it's correct, don't, in general, don't play long shots. Play the mechanical parlay.
17:08
You'll, it'll pay better, but the fault with the mechanical parlay is let's say you had a UConn 25 to 1, right?
17:14
And you've been, you've been mechanically parlaying it, and now you got, you know, your one unit has grown to 10 units or whatever it is, all right? And now you can bet UConn in the finals like +260.
17:25
You're really gonna bet 10 units +260? You normally bet one, two, or three units is your max bet, and now you're suddenly just gonna shove all in and bet 10? Of course not. It's like Kelly Criterion.
17:36
Everything else would say that's, that's a, a terrible way to wager. So even though the mechanical parlay is better than betting the future, it's still not optimal by any stretch of the imagination.
17:47
It's why I hate the mechanical parlay conversation. It never allows you to win big because you can't. Well, it's, it's twofold. It's never, it, it's that, and it also, who actually does this? Do you do it? Nobody does.
17:57
Nobody does. Nobody suddenly- So why are we talking about it? Nobody suddenly who normally bets $100 a game- Yeah...
18:03
is suddenly gonna say, "I'm gonna risk 1,500 to win, you know, 3,800 on the championship game out of nowhere." No, no, no, it just doesn't happen. Yeah. Chris of St.
18:11
Barts, "Look forward to stopping by next month, Fezzik having the Luger Lunch on May 13th. Stop by and critique my betting strategies, and I'll ex- and I'll explain why you are wrong about the Masters."
18:20
[laughs] He's totally wrong about the Masters. Chris Hartman. That was Chris of St. Barts. This is Chris Hartman What's this?
18:26
Fezzik's saying he doesn't like the Masters on Masters Friday warrants a penalty of Fezzik Friday being reduced to one segment. Blasphemous. You're out of here, apparently, Fezzik.
18:34
Well, it, it's excellent points, and obviously I'm in the minority, but it's fine for me to say I don't like it. So, so- Yeah, you, yeah, you- But, but, I mean, that's, I mean, it's like, it's like debating movies.
18:43
If I don't like The Godfather, which I love The Godfather, but if I don't like it, it's just my, it's just personal preference. I think Fast Times at Ridgemont High is a top five movie of all time.
18:51
That's a little bit of an aggressive stance. [laughs] Uh, Wyndham Clark, low round now with Tyrrell Hatton and, and Sungjae Im. Uh, actually, Im gave one back, so it's Hatton and
19:04
Wyndham Clark with the low rounds thus far. Four under, Clark through 16, Tyrrell Hatton through 10. At four under, Sam Burns, Rory McIlroy still in the lead, have yet to tee off, one stroke lead over Clark. There it is.
19:19
As everybody else is struggling with this golf course. Everyone else is parring hole after hole, but it's scintillating. Scintillating. If you can't enjoy this, what, uh, what... Anyway.
19:30
[laughs] I'm not even, I'm not even gonna go... This, so far, let's, let's get two on the demerits for Fezzik. He doesn't like the Masters, and two, he thinks a sharp ninth-grader could solve the Monty Hall problem.
19:38
That's two. Um, last thing about the golf thing- I gotta come with, a sharp ninth-grader really could solve it. It's very simple. I don't think you're correct. Hmm.
19:46
I think it's, yeah, I think it is a, I think it is puzzling to the human brain. And I consider myself a fairly intelligent human being- Mm-hmm... but I, I'm, I'm gonna stand up for sharp ninth-graders.
19:56
They wouldn't get this. The, the, it is puzzling to the human brain that there are three doors. So we could go through it. We, we'd not, I'm not gonna do- Hmm... Monty Hall radio here. Yeah.
20:04
But that there are three doors, you know the outcome of one of them, and that your brain should immediately know that the switch is the correct way to go. I don't think most people get that. Fair, fair enough.
20:14
It has some complicated conditional probability, and the key here is that they don't randomly show you a curtain. Yes. They are past-posting, if you will, a curtain that it cannot be the winner.
20:24
The man would talk about binomial distributions for a segment if I let him. By the way, I do think Wall Street, in the, the '80s, the original- Yeah... that's a top five movie. [laughs] No one could debate that.
20:34
See, what's your- Michael Douglas... what's your, what's your favorite movie of all time? I, I think Wall Street. Okay. Really? Over Fast Times? They're both [laughs] so good. Where'd you get that jacket, remember?
20:43
[laughs] Fast Times did have Phoebe Cates, though, so there's that.
20:46
Last thing on the golf discussion before where you were talking about how you hate all the, uh, the folks who have all these futures because they're not, you're, you following them will not get the best price.
20:56
They should be getting massive kickbacks from the sports books because they're just promoting negative EV bets. In my opinion- Promoting negative EV, and I would add, it's also too many of them, right?
21:07
I, I think generally in golf betting, right, we hear about the long shots, but, I mean, let's do the accounting. If you're betting 10 guys at, in, in all these tournaments, there's that.
21:15
But then how should, smarty pants, how should people be betting golf tournaments more than the outrights? How should they be doing it? A- a- and, and one more movie, The Sixth Sense. Um- Oh, geez...
21:24
I see, I see dead bets. Hmm. And people don't even know they're dead. But, um- [laughs]... thank goodness the great Bear Felica came in and gave you a, um, a great, um, synopsis of how you should be betting matchups.
21:37
Yeah. Over/unders for any one guy. Think how great this is. If you are directionally right on how good a dude's round's gonna be, and you bet him over or under, you just win. You know, you just, like, like bingo.
21:50
If he has a bad round, if that guy, like, I don't know [laughs] his name, Poltergeist or whatever. Close enough. P- Potgiter? That's the one. Yeah.
21:57
And he's, like, plus eight after, after six holes, and he hits a w- he hits a chip that it's like, oh, my, like, literally could take someone's eye out [laughs] as it goes across- Is that, is that how you hold the golf club, Steve, or was that- The green That was...
22:09
Oh, there you go. Yeah. Better, better. I like, hey, my buddy Hitman can vouch- You had, like, a Vrabel-Rousini interlocked hands there for a second... my buddy Hitman, I caddied for him for a couple holes.
22:17
He was out at Rio Secco. I said, "Let me sh- hit one shot," and I, a- and I'm 62, and I striped one right down the middle, 240, and he looked at me like, "This is, like, the most impossible..."
22:27
I literally, it's like I threw in- Wow... a shot from, like, half court, you know, for, for... He's like, "How, how is that?" What club did you have, a 240? I just grabbed his driver, yeah. Oh.
22:36
Oh, that's, that was- I can't hit, I can't, I can't hit more than 240... that was a drive. It was a tee shot. I like, I like hit my best drive, like, like, totally cold. All right.
22:42
Could you give us a couple UFL picks here, sir? Let's do it. So this is Warren Sharp 101. Anyone who doesn't follow Warren's stuff, he loves rest advantage. And what's this? Two of these UFL teams played Tuesday night.
22:55
Not Monday night, Gil. Tuesday night. I'm sure you caught both games. Sure, sure. So Dallas and St.
22:59
Louis both played on Tuesday night, and now they're playing Sunday, so I'm gonna fade both those teams, taking the Columbus Aviators plus seven and a half, and the Birmingham Stallions minus two and a half.
23:10
It is a one-factor handicap. I'm fading the teams that are only getting four and a half days off before their next game. It's like, it's like you're a one-policy candidate when you're running for office here. No F1.
23:21
You're a one- Everyone would vote for me... one-factor handicapper in these two UFL games. Exactly. Okay. Columbus plus seven and a half at Dallas. Birmingham minus two and a half versus St. Louis in the UFL.
23:33
Can't name a player. Which we have learned is the XFL and the USFL merged- Yes... into the UFL. More with Steve Fezzik on the other side, including a project that he's about to embark on
23:46
that includes prediction markets, next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
24:03
Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik, it's part of Fezzik Fridays, in studio with us for one more segment. You can follow Steve on Twitter, @FezzikSports, at your own peril.
24:13
In fact, I would actually recommend you don't, 'cause he's ornery, and he's angry, and something's wrong with him on Twitter. But, you know, just for the sake of saying peril. That was old Stevie. Oh, [laughs] sure.
24:24
Sure. Things have changed. You've turned over a new leaf? I have. All right. Wait, you, so you wanna give one more explanation about the Monty Hall problem?
24:30
Yeah, for, for everyone who's still disagreeing and yelling at me. Yeah. All right? Mm-hmm. Let's assume there's a game where there are a million suitcases. One of the suitcases has a, has A billion dollars in it.
24:42
Not that it would fit. Um, but a, a plaque that says you win a billion. All right? And all the other suitcases have nothing. All right? And you pick a suitcase, and so you'll have a one in one million chance of winning.
24:53
And Monty Hall comes out and he says, "Well, suitcase 38 was a loser. Ther- suitcase 39 was a loser." They, he literally takes away 999,998 other suitcases.
25:06
And now there are two suitcases left, and he asks, "Would you like to switch?" You might have the billion-dollar suitcase, but your chance of having it is, hasn't changed any 'cause Monty has taken out all the losers.
25:19
So you have a one in a million chance of having the winner, but if you switch, you're gonna win, you know, 99.99% of the time by switching, and that should be obvious. And it's really the same problem.
25:33
Let's go to Twitter 'cause I don't think people think it's obvious. Joe DeFan, "Um," hold on, Gil, "as a math teacher, I can concur that not the average ninth grader would know this."
25:43
[laughs] I said a sharp ninth grader. Johnny B- [laughs]... Johnny B, "Rare Fezzik agreement. You always switch. You have two-thirds of a chance."
25:50
Uh, Jason Q, "For all you golf lovers who are looking for a different style of Masters update, check out Chris Vernon's daily update. Been doing it for years. Best thing you'll see today."
25:58
Jason Q, uh, we were already, uh, [laughs] we were already mimicking that earlier on the show. [laughs] And it is phenomenal.
26:05
A great- By the way, the evil Monty Hall aspect of that, that's what gets you an A, a, a five on your AP, you know, uh- You get extra-... mathematics... extra credit for that.
26:14
You, you gotta mention the, that he could be evil or you don't get the question right. Stevie, could you, could you, could you go, uh, "What's going on at Augusta?" Can you do that? Yeah, we got the Irishman- Oh, okay...
26:23
at the minus four. Don't, don't dance. Don't dance. Okay. Who's gonna have the lowest score? It's all okay, stop. [laughs] Please stop. I'm sorry I asked. Um- You did ask...
26:30
Jeff, Jeff Hoffman explaining the Monty Hall [laughs] problem. He's showing a scene from Princess Bride. "You would, you'd like to think that, wouldn't you?"
26:38
The guy [laughs] in Princess Bride trying to- Never get involved with a land war in Asia. Ace Decardato, "That was the worst explanation of the Monty Hall problem I've ever heard. Sorry to the non-math people.
26:47
It's just about a half is greater than a third." Um- Oh, well, that's obvious... Johnny B adds, easily he agrees with you.
26:56
He says, "If you have a 52-card deck, I tell you to pick the ace of spades, I remove 50 cards, do you keep your card or switch? Same thing." It is the same thing. Same, same thing as I just did with the suitcase problem.
27:07
That's a great example. Ice Goon, "Just heard Fezzik utter the 'nice jacket' line from Fast Times. I worked with Stu Nathan for two years, and we frequently said that line to him. We laughed. Eventually, he did not."
27:17
Uh, Mike Rouse, "Regarding Fast Times, what was the over under on number of touchdowns for Jefferson after Sean Penn wrecked his car?" [laughs] My dad's, like, an awesome TV repairman. He's got awesome set of tools.
27:28
He can, he can fix it. Forest Whitaker. I mean, just the, the stars that came out of that movie. Don't fool with my car. Don't fool with it. Hey, man, well- That's my main man right there. He and I are like this. Damone.
27:39
You got Earth, Wind & Fire tickets? Great movie. Earth, Earth, Wind &... Yeah. Yeah. Um, I'll, I'll, I'll get back to you. [laughs] Uh, okay. So wait a minute. Let's, uh, let's bring this back in. Let's bring this...
27:47
By the way, Justin Rose for birdie. He's two back. He's three off the lead, trying to get to two off the lead. He just missed a sh- a fairly short one. He got very, very angry.
27:57
Justin Rose, who was in a playoff with Rory last year, gets- And he's dead center... gets the birdie. He is two back. Looks dialed in. Justin Rose, three under for the tournament. Uh, that's where he'll make the turn.
28:09
T- uh, one under for his, uh, front nine today, three under for the tournament. I think I had that right. Looks like he means business. Uh, he's three under for the tournament. Either way, he's two back.
28:21
Uh, okay, let's get to couple things. One, Save Ohio Sports. The Save Ohio Sports Act. I am so angry about this. So the heart of it all, Ohio, it's legal- Where you are from... I'm from. It's legal to bet on sports.
28:37
It's legal to gamble. Okay, so the legislation came down, but now what's this? Oh, apparently one of their Ohio Cleveland Indian pitchers purposely threw a ball. Manuel Claesse. And they- Luis Ortiz...
28:49
yep, going to jail and all kinds of, of issues. And so now the legislators have taken it upon themselves, although this is the United States of America and it's legal to gamble,
29:01
not in Ohio apparently because they have the most, um, onerous restrictions on gambling you will ever see, including you can't bet, um, on your phone. You have to be betting at a casino. There's, like, $100 max bet.
29:16
You can't bet on college sports. This is all in the proposed legislation. $100 max bet? $100 max bet. You know what, guys? What are we doing?
29:24
Maybe you should go in there and, and define responsible gambling and go after all these, um,
29:31
providers and saying you cannot offer a bet, like DraftKings offered a bet, like, "Can anyone at the Masters go the entire 72 holes and not have a bogey?" And, like, the true odds [laughs] were like- Yeah...
29:44
like, 500 to 1 or something, and they were giving 25 to 1. Like, make, like, like, the maximum edge a sportsbook can have in, in terms of a theoretical, Vegas does this with sp- with, with slot machines.
29:55
I believe it's, like, I don't know what the number is, whether it's 30% or something like that, that the house edge can't be above a certain amount. That would be good legislation to protect the consumer.
30:05
Don't, like, let uninformed gamblers just make complete sucker same game parlays, seven teams that, like, the theo edge on the house, for the house is 50%, as opposed to, like, no, we're just not gonna let anybody gamble, so now we're gonna go back to, like, the bookies and, and the unregulated market being the only real option.
30:24
It, it is an am- you, you've touched on an amazing point on this, which is, it, the amazing blind spot of they don't even consider that anything nefarious is happening in the other direction.
30:36
It's always just one-way traffic with these l- with these legislators. Like, well- Clearly, the books are above board. We must only, uh, we must only address the other side of this.
30:45
Yes Responsible gambling i- is defined to be only lose one-tenth of your paycheck, not a half, you know? It is never defined to be, "Hey, maybe I should be making good bets-" Yeah "...
30:56
that give me a good chance to win," and it, it drives me crazy. They do like the MGM billboard you see, um, you know, uh, "Get ahead of the game," something along those lines.
31:05
You know, "Play with an edge," something like that, and they're like, "Budget what you're going to lose." That's, I, I, I mean, I c- I just can't understand it. Um,
31:16
you agree with me Nevada is, is fighting a Sisyphus-like push the rock up the hill deal with these prediction markets? Like, I under- I understand Nevada's point, right?
31:24
Nevada, listen, they had to pay a lot for their licenses, but the world is passing them by with prediction markets. It's nationally regulated.
31:34
They don't have to like it, but it is, and the guy they voted for is the one screwing them, so I don't have a lot of sympathy for them, and it's just you can't stop progress.
31:45
Ah, you can in Nevada, because- No, you can't... you don't un- Not if it's federal No, you, you, you, you don't understand. All you people are just our guests- [laughs] As I-... here in Nevada...
31:53
as I learned in my hearing. That- Right? You just understand it- You-... Gil, you're just our guest around here You're just our guest, and I- Yeah... don't care that you're in 49 of the other states. Yeah.
32:01
If you're a king or a queen or you like to duel, you ain't coming to Nevada- Well-... unless you play ball with us It's, we're s- we're in the moment here.
32:10
We're s- we have no idea how this is all gonna end up- I, I, I will say-... with all of this stuff...
32:15
how in the world can a loophole, a legal loophole, allow a prediction marketplace to let 18- and 19-year-olds bet [laughs] on the Super Bowl and on Monday Night Football, and they can lay eight and a half as long as they bet in that, uh, as long as they're not betting, even though it's an identical bet.
32:32
They gotta clean that up. They gotta make it age 21, in my opinion.
32:35
Oh, I think there's a lot of things that, that our country, like, uh, again, you know, there's, there's many countries now that don't let anyone below the age of 16 use social media.
32:45
Like, we're, we're, uh, we are, we're different here with- But-...
32:49
things that we would never, you know, never pass is kind of being done in a lot of places now But I still think, like, we're the United States of America.
32:58
I, I'd have to go back and l- and, like, go to, like, um, um, my cartoons to learn history, like, l- li- like, like, you know, the, I believe the Pilgrims, like, they came over for, like, like- Yeah...
33:09
religious freedom, like- Yeah... be able to do what we wanna do and, and get away from Europe and the draconian rules and like, and now what's this? I, oh, I can go into a 7-Eleven in England and- Well-...
33:19
bet on anything, but I can't do it in, in Georgia, in, in the United States of America. I'm just saying there's a lot of, what I'm trying to get at is there's a lot of hypocrisy on lots of things.
33:27
Like, oh, we can't stop these freedoms, but this freedom, because it infringes on my stuff, we gotta stop. It, it's ridiculous. Bottom line, if it's only- Yeah... harmful to an individual, let
33:37
the individual choose- Agree... what they want to do. Agree completely. What's your project that you're working on?
33:42
Oh, I'm so excited about this 'cause we're hearing so many things about, like, all these prediction models and, uh, of all, all our markets, like with Kauschy, all right?
33:50
And we're hearing about ProfitX, and we're hearing about, you know, you know, uh, l- NoVig and LowVig and Bet105 and all these new options, and they do have some fees, and they do have some tax implications.
34:03
This May, I'm gonna put it all together.
34:05
I'm gonna say who really gives you the best deal of every sportsbook and every prediction market and the like if you wanna lay the least amount of vig, and so I'm gonna lay, uh, w- and I'm completely unbiased.
34:16
I, I don't have any affiliation with anybody. Mm-hmm. So I can do this. You know, like I famously, I love the South Point, and they don't like me, but it's fine.
34:24
The South Point does great stuff, so I'm al- I always promote them, even though they don't like me, and w- and I'll get back to you on, on where you should have accounts that give you the best chance to win.
34:33
I'm gonna simplify it, betting MLB sides, nail the game. You realize, you realize the prediction markets are gonna win this. You're just deciding which of those is gonna end up winning.
34:40
I, I'm not certain of that because I have to see, like, uh, w- Kauschy isn't gonna win, I don't think, because of their fees. I'll, I'll make you a bet right now. Steve Fezzik, everybody. Mm-hmm.
34:47
Fezzik Fridays, coming back on The Numbers Game. I'm a pretty great multitasker. I can wash dishes and do laundry. I can rollerskate while walking my dog.
34:57
[dog barks] I can even order lunch while doing my homework, but I can't use my phone while driving.
35:04
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35:11
Don't drive distracted, a message brought to you by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Project Yellow Light, and the Ad Council.
35:18
[rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:35
Scottie Scheffler has birdied the eighth hole, so he, uh, gets one of the two strokes he lost earlier back. So he is now one over for the day, one under for the tournament, the tournament, at the 90th Masters at Augusta.
35:49
Round number two, where again, Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns at five under par with, uh, Burnsy just about to tip, uh, to tee off. I think he might have just teed off.
36:01
Uh, they were the leader in the clubhouse, and they remain the leaders. One-stroke lead over Wyndham Clark, who is tied for the low round today. Wyndham Clark is four, is, uh, four under for the tournament, one back.
36:12
He's four under for the day, tied for the low round. He actually is now done for the day, so four under- Mm-hmm... is the low round to beat. Tyrrell Hatton will have something to say about this, though.
36:21
He's four under through 11. Everybody else, like, if I, I'm looking up and down- Yeah, that, I mean, that's a big-time round from Wyndham Clark.
36:29
Yeah, th- there's, the next, there's only a couple other rounds of two under on the day from anybody, either par, you know, partial two unders. Other than that, it is one under or worse
36:43
This has just been, it's, it's been a brutal morning, worse than yesterday morning, as it continues to, uh, riff off of yesterday afternoon where it's just getting harder and harder, and one would assume that it will just continue to get harder today.
36:56
Tyrrell Hatton, that's impressive, too. But I, uh, two, two guys, Wyndham Clark and Tyrrell Hatton going low, who, quality players, but man, not, not great form coming into this tournament.
37:09
So kind of surprised to see this. Our guy Chris Gotterup, though, is making a move. He is two under for the day through 10, two under for the tournament, so he is three back as well.
37:20
And in the, uh, the race for the, uh, low debutant, he's got a two-stroke lead over Jacob Bridgeman with, uh, Marco Penge. Oh boy, where did Penge end up? Scrolling, scrolling.
37:32
Penge is three over for the tournament, so he is just inside. By the way, the cut, projected cut has gone from three over, as we imagined it would, it would move. The projected cut is now at four over. Top 50 plus ties
37:46
right now, projected cut four over. We will see if that moves. Bryson DeChambeau would be among those just inside the cut line n- l- uh, now, 'cause he was four over yesterday. He has not teed off yet today.
37:58
Si Woo Kim among those at four over just inside. Viktor Hovland, Marco Penge, all. I mean, this is so subject to change as the day goes on. By the way, the, uh, Jon Rahm story, he is still not at the projected cut line.
38:12
He is five over for the tournament despite being one under for the day. Boy, the, the, uh, race for the, uh, the top Spaniard, Rahm and O- Olazábal both at five over. Sergio- Sergio, man...
38:25
Sergio with a four-stroke lead- Yeah... over those guys. Sergio sort of cruising in through 13 today, one over for the tournament, one over for the day as well. Man, this course is playing tough. Yeah, it is.
38:38
It's gonna be fun to watch- This is-... but, uh, it could be a bloody week... about as tough a Masters through a, a day and a half as I remember. I, no, I'm right there with you. Yeah. It was.
38:47
Watching late in the afternoon a- and, yeah, today's not gonna be any different. I mean, these guys trying to hold those cra- did you see that- Oh... shot Woodland had on the par five? Yes.
38:57
Sent it over, almost hit it in the water on the- Yeah... backside. Yeah. Like, it's ju- and the- when Gary Woodland and Scottie Scheffler are looking at something like, "What the hell?"
39:06
Like, i- it's, it, I mean, those are major winners who have been around for a while now playing- The par five-... a very high level... the par fives are where you have to score- Mm-hmm...
39:13
on this golf course, and if you can't score on those, man, the scoring in general becomes really tough to come by.
39:21
Uh, Scheffler on the ninth hole now after having birdied eight to get within four of the lead at one under. He has his approach shot on nine.
39:30
Let's see how, uh, close to the pin he can get this to try to get a birdie opportunity. Uh, Scheffler tries to get back the second stroke that he lost. He's got one back that he lost earlier in the round.
39:41
Um, he seems to like this one. Oh, and he sticks that one pretty good. Nice little, uh, eh, tough birdie putt, but, but a pretty darn good golf shot. At worst, he sets himself up for a par. He'll have a...
39:55
He's [laughs] he can't believe, and that's the g- that's, those are the reactions we're seeing. Mm-hmm. He can't believe that that ball didn't keep going towards the hole once it landed.
40:05
So these guys frustrated left and right. I saw Jordan Spieth had this little bunny of a putt on a previous hole. He couldn't believe that he, that it was short. He missed, like, a two-footer earlier- Yeah... too.
40:16
This is for birdie to put him to two under. Spieth could actually be in a way better position where he's at. And he put that one short. Yeah. That, these greens are so fast, these guys are scared to hit it.
40:25
And now he can't believe that it's short. Jordan Spieth, who of course is a, is a one-time Masters winner, could have very well been- Oh...
40:31
a back-to-back winner back in the day, but that was the one that Danny Willett won when Spieth went into the water. Let me take you inside the control room real quick or the truck.
40:38
Uh, I need a tight camera on Jordan Spieth. Volume up on that boom mic. Volume up. [laughs] He's gonna be complaining to his caddy about something. Volume up. Sam Burns has teed off.
40:46
He, uh, parred the first hole- Piping the birds... of his day. Uh, let's recap the bets. Uh, David Bailey for me is my only NFL draft bet. It's plus 230, second overall pick.
40:57
I was shown this morning that it's minus 130 now, so I'm at, I'm CLV once again, plus 230 on- Yep... David Bailey as the, uh, second pick in the draft.
41:06
And then the Reds, uh, despite losing two in a row at 35-1 here March-April, they are just one win behind the Dodgers, uh, top, the March-April board.
41:15
And the Reds are big favorites tonight at home, back home at the Great America Small Park against the Angels in interleague play tonight. But they got Chase Burns on the hill, so the Reds are minus 190 favorites tonight.
41:27
Let's go Redlegs. Do you know why they were, uh, named the Redlegs? No, I do not. In the 1950s, betwe- W- because w- did some guy named Red play for the Reds? No.
41:37
Uh, between the years 1953 and 1959, there was the Red Scare in this country, Joseph McCarthy- Uh-huh... trying to, uh, out communists. Okay. I know that one.
41:45
And so to distance themselves from, you know, the, the term- Oh... the term Reds. Yeah. To distance themselves, they called themselves the Redlegs for six, seven years. Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. That's the story.
41:58
I just learned, and, like, this is one of those things where you're, like, young enough to never need to k- or, like, never need to know or never heard that before. One day, kid, when, uh, you want me- The Red Scare...
42:09
you want me to... One, one day, when m- want me to name all the presidents, I'll be happy to do that for you as well. [laughs] Little parlor act. You got, do you know all the presidents?
42:17
I could not name all the presidents. Wow. No, there's no way. Well, see, this is a generational thing. It's because you had, as a child, you had so many more things than I did as a child, right?
42:25
Those of us who are a certain age, we only had three networks on TV. We had no screens, right? We, we- But I was also that last generation. Like, I didn't grow up with the internet. You know?
42:35
Like, internet hit me, like, in high school. Yeah, we didn't, we didn't have the internet. We didn't have screens. We, we, we- Had encyclopedias... all we had was encyclopedias. [laughs] Right.
42:42
So all we did was, like, stare, but, but, and we collected baseball cards. So all we did in the encyclopedias, we'd stare at, like, all the breeds of dogs- Yeah, yeah... all the pictures, or, like, all the presidents.
42:52
I lost a bet to Wyatt Tomchek once. Uh, you might remember this 'cause I think you did it as well. I was not convinced he could fill out every single state in, in a ma- a blank map. Oh, my God. And he did.
43:03
I was very impressed. That's impressive. The Northeast would trip me up. That's the bar? I, I wouldn't be able to get all of them I mix up which is Vermont and New Hampshire Yeah, that's what I was gonna say.
43:11
But, but- The Northeast is very- But you're saying you didn't think he could name all the states? No, no, no, no. Oh. Fill, he had to fill out a blank map. Oh, that's, that's the only one.
43:18
So, so, like, the, the location of a New Hampshire, that matters. That, that's the only one I mess, I mess up on. Uh, my outrights at the Masters, Scottie Scheffler, pre-flop, plus 5 to 590. Chris Gotterup, plus 6250.
43:29
Nice to see Gotterup playing well today. Uh, and then top 10, Ludvig Åberg. Where is Åberg? He just- Keeps bouncing around. I- I- th- he's, he's maybe had the most- He's one, one over for the tournament.
43:39
He's one under for the day through 10. All right, Åberg. Yeah, he's m- had ma- but it's, like, it's, it's three birdies and two bogeys. Like, his card- Yeah... yesterday was a nightmare.
43:46
His card today, it's, like, it's not a lot of pars. It's been a wild ride for Ludvig so far. Your two match-ups today? Yeah, uh, which I don't believe these guys have actually gotten started.
43:55
So, uh, Knapp over Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Young over Bryson Young for me. And then NBA tonight- Bryson DeChambeau. You said Bryson Young. [laughs] Thank you. Thank you. Yep.
44:05
Uh, NBA for me tonight, Nuggets-Steve- Who, who's Bryson Young? Yeah... I don't know. Yeah. Over 122 and a half. I think I saw 121 and a half out there. I br- brought this up earlier. Small bet for me.
44:15
I will likely be adding to it, just waiting to get official clearance that Jokic, and Gordon, and Murray are going for the Nuggets tonight. All this is questionable right now.
44:24
And then back on Cooper Flagg one more time, 30-plus points at plus 185.
44:29
But Gil, I will be happy to lose this bet if one Victor Wembanyama shows up and blocks every shot that he has, 'cause that would be good for multiple reasons.
44:37
Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic each have to play 20 minutes in at least one of these final two games for them to be eligible for MVP.
44:45
Oh, real quick, Gil, before we move on, shout-out to Jeff, who stopped by and said hi before the show, brought some, uh, some fun stuff for the crew today. Hey, thank you, Jeff. Yeah.
44:54
Even though it was for the crew and not for us, but thank you, Jeff, nonetheless. We don't need stuff. Yeah, we, we really- Tell everybody to bring stuff for the crew... we really don't need stuff. Yeah.
45:01
We don't require anything. Uh, Scheffler pars hole number nine, so he will turn the corner one over for the day, one under for the tournament, four back.
45:10
Paul Carr, Premier League picks tomorrow, Arsenal, Bournemouth, both teams to score minus 120, Fulham double chance plus 130 at Liverpool. Sunday, Chelsea, Man City over three and a half goals.
45:20
Christopher Felica, uh, both teams to score Wolves, West Ham minus 140. Sunday, he's on Man City versus Chelsea. He also is on the Hawks moneyline [laughs] versus the Cavs, the rare NBA play from Felica today.
45:33
Uh, Lexington Stakes tomorrow, the 10th race, the number three horse decisive win at 15 to one. That would be a decisive win- Mm-hmm... at 15 to one. And bet around the favorite.
45:43
And then as round two scores today, some have teed off, some have not.
45:45
Sam Burns over 72 and a half, Cam Young under 71 and a half, Shane Lowry over 72 and a half, Bhatia over 72 and a half, Fleetwood over 71 and a half, Fitzpatrick over 71 and a half, and Hovland over 72 and a half.
45:56
So an over fest despite the one exception. Rory McIlroy, leader after the round two. He's got plus 172. Rory atop right now with Burns. Top 20, including ties, on Åberg and someone else with the screen shifted.
46:09
And then Steve Fezzik, Columbus and Birmingham in the UFL. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network
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