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Apr 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 11, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 11, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander.
0:17
His little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody, alongside. Um, still to come, Fezzik Friday, Steve Fezzik in the hizzy. See if we get into it. Uh, we got a lot to talk about with Fezzik.
0:27
Anything on, that's on his mind, but I have a feeling I know what's on his mind today. Uh, and Chris Felica standing by. We get tweets @beatingthebook.
0:33
Chuckism1, "Wow, didn't have Gil using the word rizz on my bingo card today." That's 'cause Kelly said mid, so I had to make fun of him. I, I, I, you know what's funny is I thought about it. As soon as I said it- Yeah...
0:43
I thought about it. I was like, "I just said mid." No one picked up on my straka. Dead on arrival, where that's from.
0:49
Uh, David AF, "Regarding Gil's foul territory angle in Sacramento, just read today that Oakland Coliseum got its vast foul territory when new A's coach Joe DiMaggio wanted upper deck seats to have a full view of the field.
1:00
Solution was moving home plate forward." I did not know that. I did not know that was the origin of it. Plus they need more room, as much room as possible for all the feral cats- [laughs]...
1:10
that, that I assume are still living there. Are all the fer- Yeah Well, I'm sure they're having a, uh, just a great time over there. What a story that was from the pandemic. That was incredible.
1:18
Um, Matt McCarty has birdied his fourth consecutive hole. Whew, he is two under for the tournament, five back. Just wanna point that out.
1:28
Have a, what was the, the Chris Berman line when the, the people at SportsCenter back in the late '70s and early '80s had a bet? In a result that was of interest to many people around here.
1:36
[laughs] Matt McCarty has birdied his fourth consecutive hole. He's two under for the tournament, five back of Justin Rose. And this, this tweet is really where we ought to start with Felica.
1:47
Chris Felica from Fox Sports joins us now. Uh, part of the Bear, not part of, he is the, uh, emperor of the Bear Bets Empire at Fox Sports. Multiple podcasts, comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
1:56
You may know him as the Bear. This is from Bruce Dobegan. Uh, Chris, we bring you in for this. He says, "Forecast for this afternoon, winds 22 to 27 miles per hour. Grab the morning, guys. Rosie looks good." Let's go.
2:08
Yep. And this segues right into you, right, doesn't it? E- e- e- e- exactly.
2:12
I, I, I, I hit you guys up in the, in the group text last night that, uh, it looked like the earlier guys were gonna get the better of it today because there was a little bit of rain overnight, so everything will be a little bit more receptive, picking up in the winds in the afternoon.
2:24
So I would be, and I have been betting, uh, so far, uh, Oberg, Bryson, and Rose all to be second round leader at d- different levels to try and balance it out to make sure I, I guarantee myself a profit.
2:38
I've been betting Oberg and, and Bryson to win the tournament. I'd hold off on Scotty because who knows what's gonna happen in the afternoon. You might get a better number on him, uh, after the round finishes.
2:49
But yeah, it, it looks like these early guys, they definitely pick up on. And I've been betting, uh, I've been betting Rory to finish in the top 10. He's been, he's around minus 120 to finish top 10 now.
2:59
It looks like that is certainly gonna be, uh, th- the Rory tale at Augusta again.
3:04
Backdoor top 10, kind of shoots himself out of it on, on, on day one, and then by the time the final round rolls around, there he is fitting, sitting, uh, T6, T7.
3:13
Uh, on the, on the menu as well there, I see you got, uh, the, uh, graphic up, uh, afternoon guys going out. Uh, Tony Finau over 72 and a half, Justin Thomas over 71 and a half, Ryan Harmon over 72 and a half.
3:26
Guys that, uh, wind gets a hold of some of their shots, uh, could be in for some higher scores this afternoon. I like it. I like the strategy.
3:32
And that Rory point is, is part of the reason why I bet Rory, uh, second round leader and also for the tournament also.
3:38
How many times be- before this, this current stretch of Rory where we're like, "Oh, he's the greatest golfer in the world," um, did we see him having cosmetic finishes, right? Oh. He loves the non-pressure finish.
3:49
Ex- exactly. That's the thing.
3:50
I mean, I, I happen to know, like, it, it's been since, like, 2017 or so that he's been, been within, like, six shots, uh, during the weekend, a- and he hasn't been in contention entering the week, and then he'll come out on, on Sunday, shoot 63, and s- or not 63, but, but, like, 67, 68, uh, fire a backdoor top 10.
4:09
And, and that's the look. I've kind of ha- not had fun with people that betting Rory to win, betting Rory to win, betting Rory to win. Like, uh, he hasn't done it yet, kind of is d- defeated mentally.
4:22
Uh, I, I think when he gets to the course, like, he'll have one bad round and, uh, between the years he's kind of done. But you just, you know he's gonna come out and, and play well.
4:29
So bet him top 20, bet him top 10, uh, w- after his numbers, uh, rise up a little bit, and that's the way to do it. Don't bet him to win. Golfer that wins this that makes you hate yourself the most would be? Um.
4:44
Meaning you'd, you thought about betting him- Yeah... but didn't kind of thing. Uh, Corey Conners to win- [laughs]... w- would, would be the way, the way that I do. I, I have Corey Conners in some match-ups.
4:54
I have Corey Conners in top 10. I have Corey Conners, uh, top 20.
4:58
I do not have any Corey Conners to win, but he's someone who has been playing much better, uh, since they moved back to the East Coast and the, into the, the Florida swing.
5:07
Uh, didn't play particularly well out west, but he's played well at Augusta. Uh, he goes out, uh, right around 12:20. He goes out and puts a good couple of good holes together early on before the winds pick up.
5:17
If he winds up winning, I'll feel bad. All right. To the horsies. I believe that's the technical term. Before we get to your pick today, I, uh, this came up earlier in the week and I said I gotta ask Felica this.
5:26
Do we have a Triple Crown horse this year? I think Journalism potentially could be that horse. Uh, he's going to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. He's a versatile horse.
5:39
Uh, he's done little wrong, [laughs] if anything, uh, in his career so far. He's got a good tactical running style, uh, he should get a good pace fit set up in the Derby.
5:48
The, the issue is going to be the Preakness, I think, for him. Uh, the Preakness you're gonna have probably Cornucopian. I think Bob Baffert's horse will be sitting in the, in, in the wings, uh, waiting for him.
5:58
You get a horse that's actually running in, in the Lexington this weekend At Keeneland, Preitor, Chad Brown's horse, so I think Chad is pointing him to the Preakness as well.
6:08
You could have a couple of fresh guns, uh, to, to Triple Crown, new shooters there and waiting for him, uh, i- in the Preakness. But I think journalism does have a little... Journalism wins the, [clears throat]
6:19
wins the Derby a- and winds up winning the Preakness. He's gonna have a great chance to finish this off, uh, at Saratoga in the Belmont. All right. For those who want a, uh, horse pick for this weekend, what do you got?
6:29
Um, [clears throat] Be Your Best, uh, in the Jenny Wiley tomorrow, which race 10 at Keeneland. Now, uh, in, in a couple of stakes races there today, a couple stakes races tomorrow.
6:38
And by the way, uh, for the horse players, there's a massive, uh, pick six carryover at Keeneland.
6:43
It's a dollar-based bet, so, uh, why not, why, why not sit around, play the horses, bet some golf, bet some soccer, bet some tennis. I mean, what, what, uh, who, who's got it better than us, by the way? Nobody.
6:53
This is what we do. Nobody. This is what we do for a living. We watch, we watch golf, we watch horse race, and we watch, watch soccer and we bet. [laughs] I mean, how freaking great is that?
7:00
But, uh, Be Your Best tomorrow in the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. Uh, Kathy Joseph's horse is 6 to 1 in the morning line.
7:07
Uh, should get a really good trip behind Keho Beach, the favorite who will probably is the pace setter in the race.
7:12
But I think, uh, Be Your Best with a rat up, uh, has a very, very good chance to, uh, upset the apple cart there at 6 to 1. Every time Jim Harbaugh asks that, a- and he's asking it rhetorically. Kathy? I'm like, "Me.
7:22
Right over here. Right over here, Jim." But I'll, I'll answer it. Yep. Um, all right, you mentioned soccer. Do we have any Felika soccer bets? Oh, we got plenty of soccer. We got, uh, we got four things for tomorrow.
7:32
Four or three? Four things for tomorrow. I got two in Serie A, uh, Inter Milan and Cagliari, who I think is Michael Lombardi's, uh, Serie A team, Cagliari.
7:41
Um, uh, Inter Milan, a big Champions League win, emotional game at Bayern Munich this week. Uh, they're in position to move, advance to the, uh, Champions League semis.
7:51
Hosting Cagliari, who's kind of, uh, just more floating there, not gonna get promoted, not in, not in danger really of getting relegated. This feels like a game where Inter just goes out and wins one or two to nil.
8:03
They'll play it under two and a half, uh, i- in- in that game. I also played Lecce under a half a goal at Juventus tomorrow.
8:10
Juventus has had a coaching change, and, uh, uh, again, this feels like Juventus is looking for a, uh, European, uh, Champions League spot. They're in a battle with Bologna.
8:19
Uh, this feels like a one nil, two nil type win for Juve as well. Uh, go over to England tomorrow, Championship Division. I played Preston, uh, North End under a half a goal at Leeds.
8:32
Leeds got a massive result, uh, earlier in the week. They got a big win. Sheffield and Burnley did not win, so they dropped points. Leeds back atop, uh, the championship, auto promotion.
8:42
Uh, feels like Leeds comes home and keeps a clean sheet against Preston. And then in the Prem, Nottingham Forest, uh, Everton under two and a half goals as well.
8:51
Uh, Everton coming off a couple of big games where they drew, uh, at Arsenal, which w- which was massive for us. We had that last week. Lost one nil at Liverpool. Uh,
9:01
Nottingham Forest, again, looking for Champions League play, uh, looking to clinch that.
9:06
Typically a very lower scoring defensive-minded team, so under two and a half, uh, Nottingham Forest, Everton at the city ground tomorrow as well. Wow. What was that little Lombardi note you stuck in at the beginning?
9:16
What was that? I, I, I, I bel- I believe his, um, his family, I believe he mentioned, like, on the air a couple times that Cagliari is, um, his family is from that area. Oh.
9:24
So I think that that would be the, uh, h- his, uh, his Serie A squad. Okay.
9:28
Um- By the way, I, I remember, I remember you and, uh, Kelly, by the way, last week were talking about, like, little things, like, little things that either hurt or bother you, and you brought up canker.
9:38
I was thinking canker sore when you, before you even said it. Oh, yeah. One other thing that doesn't hurt, but it's annoying, like, when you get stitches, like, when you get stitches and they start itching- Oh.
9:47
[laughs]... and you can't itch them. That's true. It's like, "Ah," it's like sitting here, like, patting the Band-Aid to try and get, make the itch go away, because you can't rub it, can't scratch it.
9:54
It's a pain in the you know what. Canker sore is gone, by the way. Thanks for asking. Good. Oh, I'm glad we got the- It's fantastic... we got the final update on it. Yeah. Good. Good. All right. See you later.
10:02
Uh- Did you use a little perox- peroxide on it? No, I just powered, I powered through it. Ooh. All right. That's what I did. The, the best part, Chris, was that he kept asking everybody if they had ever had one.
10:11
[laughs] I'm like, "I think everybody's had one." No. Like, everyone. No, no one's ever had a canker sore. [laughs] Well, Kelly just topped it on the break.
10:16
Do you wanna hear what happened when I said, uh, "Hey, Kelly," uh, when I was asking, uh, lovely Savannah behind the, uh, glass here, she's a yoga instructor. I was saying, "Oh, what kind of yoga?"
10:25
And Kelly, what did you say? There are multiple types of yoga? Culture with Kelly Bidlin coming soon. [laughs] Um, NFL draft, last, last week that you were on, you had this great conviction about Ashton Jeanty.
10:37
Everybody thinks he's going to the Raiders at six. You're like, "No, over nine and a half." And the last week has... And first of all, do you remain steadfast in that? And in the last week- I do...
10:45
has something else in your mind come up, what you feel a lot of conviction on? I, I, I, I do feel pretty steadfast abou- ab- about that, the Raiders not, uh, selecting him.
10:54
I think, uh, Jaylen Walker from Georgia is gonna go very high.
10:58
I haven't seen his position prop, uh, posted yet, but I, I, I think it, it would not surprise me if he potentially worked his way, uh, into the top five as well from what I have, what I have heard.
11:09
That he will work his way into the top five? Yes. Ooh. Yes. I, I, I think there are teams that are very, very high on him, so w- w- we'll see. Okay. Yeah.
11:16
But I, I haven't s- I haven't seen a position prop on him yet, so as soon as- Where is... As soon as he, as soon as you use the language, "He's gonna go high," then, uh, my brain had to figure out which way that meant.
11:25
It's, exactly, yes. It's, uh- I wanna say I saw an eight and a half on him, but- I, I wanna say that as well. Yeah. I, I, I go under eight and a half.
11:31
There's eight and a half out there, I definitely would go under on that. I also like the phrase, "I wanna say that," as opposed to just saying it. [laughs] Yeah. You know, I- I do it all the time...
11:39
as you know, I'm not sure. I do not. You know, I'm not- I know. I said it. I said it, too... to be hon- to be honest with you. [laughs] I'm not gonna lie to you. Honestly and literally, thank you for coming.
11:46
[laughs] Appreciate it. Yeah. Chris Felika. Fezzik Fridays on the other side. It's a numbers game.
11:50
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12:04
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12:12
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12:33
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12:46
Ladies and gentlemen, this time each and every week on a Friday, we always close out with a little something we like to call Fezzik Fridays.
12:54
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. How do you feel about that intro, Mr. Steve Fezzik? Loving it.
13:06
Hey, I did not make a Masters bet this year. Can you believe it? You didn't make a single Masters bet? Not a single Masters bet.
13:12
I did notice that I think the betting markets in all the other sports were a little softer this week, because- Ooh, this is the, uh, this is the Roxy thing. By the way, Steve Fezzik, everybody- Mm...
13:21
uh, for our only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Nice to wave. Very nice, very nice wave there, Steve. Uh, you can follow him @FezzikSports, but do so with caution. He's ridiculous on Twitter.
13:31
Um, but really, he's quite, quite nice in real life. Um, what, uh, w- I just, what, what you're just, I, I stopped your roll there. Roxy had this great comment.
13:40
When Captain Jack did his, uh, Super Bowl Saturday night thing, Roxy had this great comment. He's like, "Hey, if you wanna bet MLB season win totals, bet it during the Super Bowl lines tomorrow," right?
13:50
When everybody's betting the Super Bowl, 'cause there is no ticket writer that w- because that will, that will allow you to maximize your bets, 'cause there's no ticket writer who's gonna call a supervisor on your baseball bet in the middle of Super Bowl betting lines and saying, and just stopping it, all the, all the, you know, flow of traffic.
14:06
And pulling back the curtain, uh, famously noted auth- author Nolan Dalla wrote about Stewie Unger, one of a kind. Um, he once had a $5,000 chip confiscated because he couldn't prove it was his.
14:17
Someone who owed him money just gave him a, like a Bellagio chip, and it got confiscated.
14:21
If you ever have any of these hot chips, you know, people worried, you know, whether, you know, there's a robbery at the Bellagio or whatever, uh, I hate to tell people how to do this, but make a sports bet on Super Bowl Sunday with your $5,000 chip- [laughs]...
14:33
one hour before the game starts. You should be good. Well, I didn't think we were gonna have a money laundering segment, but here we are.
14:39
[sighs] So wait, you were, you were, uh, so you were saying this about the Masters, though. Basically, you're like, while everybody else is making Masters bets, make bets in other sports for the same kind of reasoning?
14:49
Well, the reasoning is that the, there's limited bandwidth, so the oddsmakers are so distracted with all the volume that's going in.
14:56
You got the same amount of staffing, so you've gotta, like, it has to take away from your NBA- Yeah... and your MLB to price all this stuff and to put up all this product and volume on the Masters. I like it. I like it.
15:08
All right, uh, let's get into this thing, because I think we, we, we might as well get it out of the way. So yesterday on the show, we did a Are We Sure segment. Mm-hmm.
15:18
Estamos seguros, as we like to call it, Are We Sure? And Kelly asked me, "Should the Los Angeles Dodgers be minus 340 to win 100 games?"
15:27
And I, the guy who first, b- probably before anybody, said the ever-increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots in MLB, I've been saying it for years, the same guy, me, said, "I'm not sure they should be minus 340."
15:39
You disagree. I, I, I do. By the way, I dis- the last time I disagreed with Gilly, I, I lost in the first inning- [laughs]... on, on a totals bet, and so w- but that's the bad news.
15:48
The good news, I'm still holding out hope that we're gonna go to the secret sushi spot. Yeah, good luck to you. Yeah. Okay. Good luck. All right. So.
15:55
But, um, I'm very, the more research I do on the Dodgers, the more bullish I am on the Dodgers not just winning 100 games, um, but at pretty much at any price, it being attractive, and I actually like the Dodgers over 105 and a half wins.
16:09
So I went back, I crunched the numbers. Remember, Circa dealt these alternative season totals. Yes. And the, basically this is what we're talking about here. Will the Dodgers win 100 games?
16:17
They're currently at a 105 and a half is, like, the market number. Mm-hmm. So we're playing over 99 and a half. So we're really kinda just playing that all total, but now we're laying, like, minus 340, right?
16:27
So we are paying through the nose for it. That is, that is an implied 78.7% chance they win 100 games. Right. So I spat it into this binomial distribution saying- Ah, here we are... the Dodgers win 64.2% of the time.
16:41
What's the chance they win 100 to 105, basically, you know? Mm-hmm. And it turns out, like, each one of these outcomes is, like, 6%. It's crazy.
16:50
Now, it overstates the chance of, there's, like, five numbers you're covering, um, in this case, six numbers. You know, it, it, it would say they have an, over an 80% chance.
16:59
But that does overstate it, so it looks like it's properly priced, actually. Okay. But where my, my true handicap is, is I'm just really bullish on the Dodgers, so here's why. So I researched them.
17:10
They only won 98 and 102 the last two years, so they only got 100 wins those last two years. But if you go back in time, they won 106. 106, 111, and then the COVID year they were on pace for, like, over 106.
17:22
So the Dodgers, like, the last six years, have paced at 106 or higher, and this team, by all accounts, is better than any of these other teams going into the season. I'll give you that last point, for sure.
17:35
By the way, do we have that graphic, guys, with all the, the 100, uh, win teams over the, the course of the, the last decade? Here we go. Thanks, guys. Ooh, a lot of numbers.
17:42
So these are the, the teams that have won 100 games plus or lost 100 games plus. Uh, we brought this up right before the season started. So- Last year, actually no team won 100 games, right?
17:54
Last year there was three teams that lost 100 plus, most famously the White Sox, who lost a insane 121.
18:02
Uh, but you see in the, the sort of ever-increasing chas- between the haves and the have-nots, 2019 through 2023, the golden age of this, right?
18:10
The fact that we had in, in 2023, three that went, you know, 100 plus wins, four 100 plus losses. Uh, 2022, four and four 100 plus, 100, you know, minus. 2021, three 100 plus, four clubs 100 plus.
18:26
Uh, 2020 obviously pandemic year, only 60 games played, but then 2019 was also a four and four, 100 plus wins, 100 plus losses. Before that, then it, it dissipates, right?
18:36
Like, so this is the recent history is where this really does become ever-widening. But if we go to the, to the next graphic, guys, if you go b- between 2013 and 2018, it's more of a normal distribution, right?
18:48
So it is a recent phenomenon. My only point yesterday was, um, both things can be true. These, these, this phenomena can be happening.
18:57
On the other hand, the, the way that it was couched to me yesterday was minus 340, a 78.7% chance the Dodgers get there. Dodgers are 10 and 4.
19:05
If you did the on pace thing, by the way, there's 2013 through 2018, you'll see that it's not, besides 2018, it's not nearly as wide of a chasm, right? This is a f- relatively new phenomenon in baseball. Um,
19:17
my only point yesterday was a lot of stuff can happen, right?
19:21
As great as the Dodgers are, they are in, arguably, take the Rockies out of it, but you gotta play the Diamondbacks 13 times, the Padres 13 times, and the Giants 13 times.
19:31
Um, you do have a little something I like to call injuries that you can't anticipate.
19:36
Um, and then you do have something towards the end of the year where if they are in position where it's like, "Ah, we're just coasting in, we're gonna have home field," you might not be incentivized to win baseball games.
19:47
I, it's, it's a great point. They may, 98 wins might get them the number one seed, where they don't have to, you know, y- go all out. So, I, having said all that, I'm sticking with the- Okay... with the recent history.
19:58
I'm gonna give out some best bets right now. Please. Dodgers over 105 and a half. Okay. All right? Gonna double down. But you're gonna love this, Gil. You're gonna love this bet. You're gonna go make this bet.
20:07
This is available at FanDuel. San Francisco over 83 and a half. That's just a bad number. I like it. I mean, they are much better than a 500 team, and that's what it's, it's projecting them to.
20:17
And I'm gonna fade the 100 losers, 100 plus losses. Colorado, they're God awful. Under 55 and a half, look at that division. They're gonna win 50. And the Chicago White Sox, what is this?
20:30
They are still aligned at their pre-flop number, 53 and a half. The White Sox are way, way worse than we thought they would be going into the year. And by the way, Gilly- Yes, so this is the big news...
20:39
right here on The Numbers Game, I gave out White Sox longest losing streak, over eight and a half. I bet this at the Westgate. I drove over there. Mm-hmm. Drove. [laughs] You know? Drove. A good visual.
20:48
I, like, ran a red light. Yeah. Uh, max bet it, and we are one loss away from cashing before April 15th. Ap- before April 15th, and they will not grade that till the end of the year, or will they grade it early?
21:02
I don't believe they're allowed to, because I think there's a- Yeah... stipulation they have to play 150 games. 150 games. So they can't grade it. So they can't grade it. That's exactly right.
21:08
You do have one more you for- failed to mention. The Buccos. You went under. Oh, the Pirates under 72 and a half. So now I did give this out on your show. By the way, I only like to talk about my winners.
21:18
I've had some plenty of losers, so let me disclose that. But the, I'm not the most profitable guy on The Numbers Game. I believe that's Fredipedia. Jason, Jason whatnot Garden self-documented by Jason.
21:28
Has self-proclaimed that, yes. Yeah. Fair enough. Uh. He's done very well. But I gave out the Pirates under, um, 77 wins. Now they're at 72 and a half, so like, "Oh, we lost a lot of value."
21:38
No, I would argue we gained a lot of value, because what do we know now? They can't hit at all. The lineup is pathetic, and Skeens struggling as- Oh, boy... their ace. Oh, my goodness.
21:50
If he's not gonna win 20- Well, that's the thing, right? If he's not what people think he is, which is a big if, he might very well be what we think he is, but if he's not, good God.
21:58
And, and there's, there's just gonna be a fire sale come end of June on this team, because of such, the cheap organization. Any prospects that they have are gonna go bye-bye.
22:08
The other way to look at those re- fr- let's throw the Giants one out, 'cause you, you know, reasonable minds can disagree.
22:13
But on the Rockies, Pirates, and White Sox unders, and these are all of course adjusted season win totals here, uh, as we, as the season has started.
22:20
But to live through the opposite of that, let's say you wanted to go over, just the, the experience of having to live the rest of the season with those bets- [laughs] Uh, you do not wanna be that person. No.
22:33
Um- Yeah, because you're lo- you're losing two-thirds of your games. Yeah. Yeah. Um, more with Steve Fezzik on the other side, including this, uh, this prop swap case study.
22:42
What a, what a sort of interesting little boondoggle this is. We'll talk about that next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:05
That's firstbet.com, the number 1 S-T bet.com. Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. We got tweets that beat the book.
23:18
Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil, binomial distribution cashes in the first segment of The Fez Hour. Had to lay three to one, but was as close to a lock as there is.
23:27
[laughs] Cheap prop bets, binomial distribution, how to do laundry, free square. A lot of math in this segment. Just need dunzo to get bingo."
23:35
Um, and then, uh, Rick Olier, "Hey, Fez, what should I get for lunch that'll give me the best EV?" Oh, it's the 5.95 special at Stations, cheeseburger and fries. If you go on Wednesday, it's 50% off for seniors.
23:48
You can get it for three bucks. It's good. Where's, where's that? Any Station, 24/7. Oh, really? Cheeseburger and fries. It's quite good. Mm. Okay. Or go to What- Whataburger and spend $18 for something not as good.
23:56
You know, there's a, there is a, a spate of, like, $45 high-end lunch specials around Vegas.
24:03
So Milos, which was always the leader in high-end great lunch specials, when Crack and I first used to hang out, that was the spot we would go. Milos lunches were, like, 20-some bucks. Now it's 45.
24:13
This was years and years ago. The Peter Luger, I know you had one bad Luger burger. Yeah, I didn't really have a great burger. I love the Luger burger.
24:19
Don't get it with the onion, but you can get a burger, you can get fries, you get a salad, or the bacon, and you get their hot fudge sundae, people.
24:28
[laughs] When they make their whipped cream by scratch or be i- in- in-house, it is outstanding. Ocean Prime. Caesars Palace. Ocean Prime, middle of the strip, $45 lunch extravaganza. Mm. I'm telling you, it's awesome.
24:40
Uh, Justin Rose has birdied the eighth hole to get back to eight under, so he is, uh, he's finished half of his second round. He is at eight under for the tournament, one under for the day.
24:49
He is the leader by three strokes at eight under over both Ludvig Åberg and Bryson DeChambeau, who also birdied the fourth hole, so he's at five under as well.
24:58
Åberg and DeChambeau three strokes back at the, uh, 89th Masters. Corey Conners and, uh, Scottie Scheffler yet to tee off. They are both at four under.
25:05
And then you have, uh, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, and Tyrrell Hatton, the latter of which is, uh, not teed off yet. They're all at three under.
25:13
McCarty, by the way, um, again, a golfer of interest to those at Circa, he remains now at two under, six back of Rose. Uh, Matt McCarty, again, uh, on the hook, Circa is, for two mil if he ends up winning the tournament.
25:27
Mm. First-timer. Um, okay, PropSwap. Where do we begin? PropSwap, for those who don't know, is a, uh, betting marketplace that facilitates the sale and purchase of wagers previously placed at sports books.
25:42
Uh, in the case of one buyer, they paid, let's see, uh, someone paid $5,400 for an Eagles championship bet that was supposed to pay $38,292 according to the PropSwap listing.
25:59
Now, um, that's not what the buyer received, however. Two months since the Eagles won the Super Bowl, the buyer, instead of being paid 38,292, has only been paid 25,711 according to somebody on Twitter.
26:16
And so there is a, what? There's a roughly a $12,000 discrepancy there.
26:21
So for whatever reason, it's not a 300 to one payout, but state rules, taxes were taken out, I assume it, because of it was over 10,000 or for, for whatever- Yes... the amount.
26:30
So the, the person who originally had the ticket was unaware that he was gonna be taxed on it, so he sold his ticket.
26:37
"Great, I got $6,000 in December," and he's like, "And I'm just gonna give whatever the winnings to whoever bought the ticket." Yeah. "But what's this? I didn't get 38,000. I only got 25,000. Well, here you go.
26:48
Here's the 25,000. I mean, I can't be responsible for this tax stuff." So that's what happened. Yeah. So t- so let's give a, just a very easy example. I have a, I have a ticket in any sport 10 to 1 to win a championship.
27:01
I decide, "Yeah, I don't think it's gonna get there. I'll put it on PropSwap." Somebody, Steve Fezzik, comes along and says, "I'll give you seven, I'll give you seven cen- uh, what, 70 cents on the dollar for that."
27:12
Um, so I get my money, I get a cash-out, if you will, of, of 70% of it, and then you have the ticket physically.
27:20
What has ended up happening with apps is that the physical nature of how this used to go has now often, h- has now migrated, in many cases, to I have the bet on my app, right?
27:32
So there is no physical ticket that I give you for purchasing my ticket. So you are, in essence, having to trust me, right, that, and PropSwap is the facilitator. PropSwap takes, what, 10% on this?
27:44
So- That's what, that's what the commission was previously. Yeah. But the beauty of PropSwap is I don't have to trust you because I know I'm gonna get paid because I got PropSwap in my, you know, my, backing me up here.
27:54
And therein lies the rub. So in the example that is c- that we're talking about here, where this buyer did not get the full amount, right?
28:03
The seller, right, the guy who had the ticket originally in his app, as you pointed out, he didn't get the full allotment because of tax reasons. I am shocked that this hasn't happened before.
28:15
That's the first thing, right? I, I, I am as well, and the, uh, and it, it, in the photostat copy of the contract, it clearly says, you know, that the- Yeah... seller is responsible for the full amount.
28:26
So legally, he's responsible if this went to a court. All right? But he, but the dude's like, "Hey, I'll have the money. What, go, what, what?" He, he's actually in the right. Um, well, the, the,
28:36
clearly the guy, the guy who bought the ticket needs to be paid and compensated in- He needs, okay... full immediately by PropSwap. That's correct.
28:43
And for s- whatever reason, the brain trust there was too busy hanging out, apparently, at Augusta s- you know, watching, you know, paying 16,000 to watch guys golfing, to realize that their entire reputation of their company was crashing down like a Jenga b- b- bricks as this was going down.
28:58
Well, well, the p- the point is, is that if you are charging a commission of any kind, let alone 10%, the reason that you're charging that is because of a guarantee, right?
29:07
Otherwise, why wouldn't you and I just make the arrangement on our own? Correct? And, and they, and then they came out and they said it, "Only in.0002%," their words, not mine- Yeah...
29:17
"has, uh, does a situation like this come up." Well, if it only comes up, you know, once in a generation, well, then, then guarantee it. They were adamant. We don't guarantee.
29:26
Until they change this philosophy, they're not gonna do any bus- no one will do any business with PropSwap going forward until they change their business model and say, "We do guarantee it."
29:35
Yeah, the problem is, is that then this got compounded, didn't it, by what turned into sort of a marketing ploy? By Prop Swap... they, they had a telethon.
29:45
They basically had the people, "If, if, if we get 3,000 people signing up at Prop Swap and coming, and money coming in, then we can pay this guy." Yeah. That, that- Did not go well...
29:56
yeah, that's the part they probably want back. But good, good ending.
30:00
Prop Swap did finally realize, and a lot of businesses, I gotta be honest, like, I, and I give the Boyd people, like, credit during the Great Recession. They started to build Echelon Place- Mm-hmm...
30:09
and then the Great Recession hit, and they're like, "Bad idea. We got three floors built. We're s- gonna stop." But so they changed their business plan.
30:17
So Prop Swap turned around, paid the guy in full, gave him a bonus immediately. So they picked up on, "Oh, my gosh, this is doing irreparable damage." Yes.
30:26
So I will give them accolades for quickly correcting the horrific mistake they made. Yes. Well, well said at the end there. Absolutely.
30:33
But anyway, all these little, little, these little case studies come up, and they're always fascinating. Um, and again, I'm just, I'm shocked a situation like this hasn't happened before. I'm amazed by that.
30:43
And, and, and I use the example, too, it's like, what am I paying Prop Swap to 10% other than they're supposed to be reviewing all this, and they should know, hey, in this jurisdiction- Yeah... this is a taxable item.
30:53
Well, and maybe that, maybe that's why I shouldn't be shocked that it hasn't before, because it's either how often do 300 to 1 tickets- Mm-hmm... come up at Prop Swap?
30:59
How often does it end up being in a jurisdiction on a ticket that ends up winning? Mm-hmm. Right? So there, it has to be a special kind of circumstance- Sure...
31:07
that's right, for it to happen, so maybe I shouldn't be, uh, that shocked about it. By the way, uh, you know, s- people are betting golf here.
31:13
Uh, it occurs to me, and, and, and obviously the Triple Crown is right around the corner, so after the Masters clears, our next big thing is the NFL Draft.
31:21
Obviously baseball's going on the whole time, but then it's the Triple Crown. You, I don't know if we've had you on talking about horse racing lately, but you have a very, very strong opinion about it. People, em, em...
31:32
I know people who are advantage players, all right? And they bet on horses, and they get rebates, and they, and they're able to win, all right?
31:38
Without the rebate, I would say, and I know it's fun, and I'm not the, the betting police, and I'm like, "Listen to the experts and put bets down on the Derby.
31:47
Have fun with it," but I just want to be careful, and people get mad at me. I'll say this.
31:52
If you take every single expert on, it's not just VSiN, on every network, and you play everyone's, and these guys are qualified, they are experts, and you make every one of their bets and you don't get rebates, you have no chance of winning.
32:03
The house edge is just too large. In horse racing. In horse racing. Yeah. So treat it as a recreational bet and have fun with it.
32:09
Do you ever, does Steve Be- uh, does Steve Fezzik, um, um, AI robot disguised as a human being, Steve Fezzik, do you ever make horse racing bets? Can you ever, like, like, just say, "You know what?
32:20
I'm just gonna make a fun bet," or does your brain not allow you to do that? I, I don't make fun bets. My son loved it the one time there was 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby, and number 21 won.
32:30
Remember when they a- Oh... everyone did all their podcasts midweek- That's right... and then the, the, the new horse they added who no one picked- And that's who your son took... winds up winning.
32:38
Well, he didn't take it- Oh... but he, he thought that that was funny. I was like- Oh... I was like, I, when I, when I'm, I'm saying people don't win. Um, pulling back the curtain, there's two bets I love to do.
32:46
When the weather is, like, really suddenly turns terrible, and, like, um, and all these, um, horse matchups and, and over, under, and winning time and the like have been set all week long, obviously if there's a rainstorm, the winning, um, time is gonna be longer.
33:01
It's gonna, it's gonna be a slower track, and also you wanna bet on a mudder, uh, horse in a head-to-head against a horse that doesn't run as well in the mud. Things like that I, I do get involved with.
33:11
This mudder was a mudder. Yes. Okay. All right. So there's exceptions to every rule. Of course. All right. Yes. I was just making sure. Even exceptions to parlays, Steve Fezzik says.
33:18
Sometimes you can make them, you know, if you're trying to circumvent limits or- Betting against the Triple Crown winner, it, for instance, is usually a good bet to, like, like, Big Brown, yeah, this enormous horse has to run one half miles, you know, and you can bet the field against him at pickup, things like that.
33:32
Yeah. Though that's an interesting thing, too, which we should probably touch on after the break. Uh, Steve Fezzik right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, coming back.
33:41
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
33:59
Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik alongside for, uh, Fezzik Fridays. Uh, let's do our GBank Best Bets of the Day. Let's get those out the way, I believe is the technical term. GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
34:09
Uh, I added to my Masters bet, so Sep Straka's are losers, those two bets. Um, I had Sep top 10 and outright. Dunzo. Dead on arrive. Dunzo Cashas.
34:21
Uh, Rory McIlroy was the other one I added yesterday, and it was great through 14 holes, and then not so much. Double bogeyed 15 and 17.
34:27
He's yet to tee off today, but I did add Rory 14 to 1 to win the Masters, Rory best second round score at, uh, plus 1850, Scottie Scheffler at 12 to 1.
34:35
By the way, Rory one under for the day, uh, seven behind the leader, Justin Rose, who, uh, has a two-shot lead over Bryson DeChambeau.
34:45
Uh, Rose eight under, DeChambeau six under, Ober four under after a bogey, and Matt McCarty is a thing. He is now three under for the tournament, five back of Rose.
34:56
Again, uh, Circa on the hook for, uh, 2 million if McCarty wins the tournament. Uh, Chris Fallica's best bets. Did we skip Kelly? We're not doing, we're not doing Kelly? All right.
35:05
Chris Fallica's best bets, uh, he's on Tony Finau later today, uh, over 72 and a half for his round two score, Justin Thomas over 71 and a half for his round two score, and Brian Harman over 72 and a half for his round two score.
35:19
That all because the wind is expected to kick up into the 22 to 25 mile per hour range a little later. Uh, horse racing, Saturday race 10 at Keeneland, Jenny Wiley Stakes.
35:29
He's got the number five horse, Be Your Best, at six to one. Look away, Stevie. He's got a horse race pick. Uh, oh, he also has a bunch in soccer. Inter and, uh, Cagliari under two and a half goals.
35:41
Lecce under a half goal minus 140 at, uh, Juventus, and then Preston under a half a goal minus 145 at Leeds. Nottingham Forest, Everton under two and a half goals minus 140. Chris Fallica with a, uh-...
35:55
f- uh, four-pack of, uh, soccer plays as well. Uh, and we also had plays from Jason Weingarten. He's got three baseball plays today.
36:03
Rangers minus 122, Stevie's writing these down, and then black and orange, black and orange, Giants plus 122, Orioles minus 123. By the way, Joe Peta, no baseball picks today.
36:13
Joe Peta, no baseball picks, but Jason has three. Uh, and then Stevie, Steve Fezzik, with four season longs, adjusted season win totals in baseball.
36:21
He's got the Giants over 83.5 and then a trio of unders of three of, uh, the teams that should be doormats, we think, in Major League Baseball this year. Rockies under 55.5.
36:32
Buccos, the Pirates, under 72.5, and the White Sox under 53.5 from Steve. GBank, best bets of the day. Oh, Jordan Sherwood, pardon me, UFC 314 bets. In the main event, he's on Diego Lopez pre-flop plus 115.
36:48
Uh, he's on Michael Chandler in the co-main at plus 124. Also on the, uh, main card, Yair Rodriguez via decision plus 125.
36:57
Uh, and then in the, uh, prelims, this is a, uh, ladies strawweight, strawweight bout, uh, Virna Jandiroba and minus 140.
37:05
And then, uh, this is back to the, um, the main card, Reyes-Krylov under two and a half rounds minus 144 from Jordan. Is that the d- is that the, uh, wrestling room?
37:16
Kelly is, uh, Kelly's taking the, uh, he's bowing out of this one? He is. Uh, GBank, the official bank of VSiN, responsible for all the bets on every show, uh, recap every, uh, show here on VSiN.
37:26
Upping the ante is GBank with up to a $750 bonus for new GBank Visa Signature Card customers. First new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
37:38
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at visa.com/gbank.
37:49
That's visa.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. We got tweets @BeatingTheBook. Self-loathing Yankees fan, uh, is, uh, tweeting in. He's, uh, working on some technical stuff for us.
38:01
We appreciate that. Jeremy Savoy, "Gil, I'm looking for a definitive single stat that would differentiate between a power pitcher and a finesse pitcher. Any ideas?"
38:12
Well, that's a very, uh, sort of, uh, macro nebulous thing, but I would say K-rate would be sort of the, the quickest way to... I mean, it's, that's pretty broad, power pitcher versus finesse pitcher.
38:25
Those are sort of nebulous terms, but I would say K-rate is, is probably the, the catchall for all those.
38:31
Uh, Nathan Vallejo, I hope you pronounce it that way, Nathan, or our Bay Area horrible pronunciation of Vallejo would be Vallejo, uh, long-time listener, first-time tweeter, "If there might be so much more, if there might be so many more ties in the NFL this year with overtime rules being adjusted, will Circa Survivor have to change their rules of ties?
38:52
Lose?" Interesting question.
38:54
There won't be more ties, because NFL teams, the, the rule change was that if I get the ball in overtime, I score a touchdown, you still get a possession, and if you get a touchdown, we're gonna end in a tie.
39:05
Much bigger chance, no we won't, because when you get your touchdown, unless there's only seconds remaining, you will go for two. Every analytics team- Mm...
39:14
will have do the analysis and say, "After we both get a touchdown-" Every analytics team or will some teams- Except for-... be stupid?
39:20
Uh, except for the Pittsburgh Steelers and, and- [laughs] May, I, I would've said a team like Caroline Panthers, but now no longer. Um, because think about this.
39:27
As soon as we both get a touchdown, if you kick the extra point, now it's sudden death overtime where whoever has the ball has an enormous edge, and so you're much better off just going for two and winning half the time.
39:35
It's, uh, it's fifth-grade math. Everyone will do it. Bobby Yetis, "Do you remember the, uh, poor guy who brought, who bought the Brock Purdy MVP ticket for 100K on Prop Swap?
39:44
Then Purdy immediately threw four picks against the, the Ravens and blew it. I felt for the guy, but mostly because I also had a Purdy ticket." I, too, had a Purdy ticket, Bobby Yetis. Chad Lee, "Big Brown?
39:54
Not sure why, but that was a true LOL moment." [laughs] And then, uh, RDW has a bunch of, uh, horse racing picks for all of us in case anybody wants to, uh, check out my feed as well. Um, okay.
40:06
What did you say about the Triple Crown? I wanna go, close that, uh... Oh, just in general, irrational exuberance on whoever wins the first two legs, and then inevitably there's always, "Will the dude- Ah...
40:17
win the Triple Crown?"
40:19
And most of the sports books already are a little overloaded because the public likes to bet yes on Triple Crown, so on a yes/no prop, it's very rare that you don't get value betting against the horse winning the Triple Crown.
40:30
That's interesting. That's very specific if they won the, if they won the first two legs. Yeah.
40:33
My point about the Triple Crown has always been this, and I, I owe Peter Keating, who used to work at ESPN, the magazine, now is at The Athletic for this, which is the Triple Crown didn't, nobody won, no horse won the Triple Crown between 1978, Affirmed, and 2015, American Pharoah.
40:51
That was an aberration. So what's that? That's 37 years. Mm-hmm. And so people immediately toggle, their brains went to, "Well, it's really unlikely that any horse wins a Triple Crown. It hasn't happened in 37 years."
41:04
But the truth was that it was, we had, uh, so many close calls- Yes... and people only define close calls as they win the first two legs and then the third leg is, is what they only, is that they need.
41:17
But if you actually go back, there was a lot of Preakness/Belmont winners or Derby/Belmont winners, right? So it was, it, it is actually way more likely to occur if you look at it that way.
41:29
So I don't know how- Than the 0 and 37... than the 0 and 37. I, I, I agree entirely. Yeah. Um, but what happens inevitably is it's way less likely than the market prices it- That's true. Yeah...
41:38
after a horse looks really good in the first two of the three legs. Justify, of course, won the Triple Crown three years after American Pharoah did in 2018. Since then, we have not had a Triple Crown winner.
41:48
What a, what a, the late, the '70s, right? Secretariat in '73, Seattle Slew in '77, and an Affirmed nipping Alydar in all three races in, in '78.
41:57
If, if, if you've never seen that Secretariat, the third leg of the Triple Crown- Oh... 'cause he only wins, like, the first two races by, like- You know, six or eight, uh, lengths.
42:05
And then he literally wins the, the Belmont by 150 lengths. I mean, it's amazing. The other horses don't even finish the race. It'll give you chills too. Yes.
42:13
Um, okay, and you wanted to mention, uh, b- before we go here, we only have 90 seconds left, uh, there is an alley in the middle of the Strip you wanted to mention.
42:20
Yeah, so the, the weakness of walking up and down the Las Vegas Strip versus here at Circuit downtown, everything's next to each other.
42:26
But when you're walking property to property, uh, you better be in good shape because there are a lot... There's a big distance between a lot of the properties. But what's this? I'm walking by the High Roller.
42:36
There's an alley behind the Flamingo and between the Flamingo and O'Shea's. There used to be... That, that'd be like a dangerous alley. You'd get robbed. It was so dark 20 years ago.
42:45
It has become a mecca, a hub- Uh-huh... of activity. There's, like, 50 businesses there. In-N-Out Burger, Brooklyn Bowl, Ghirardelli's, something for everyone.
42:56
So if you're, like, a, a tourist that doesn't wanna do a lot of walking, just take it all in.
43:01
Boy, that alley r- you know, right there by Flamingo, that is a good spot to walk over the High Roller, and I would recommend the High Roller.
43:08
It's fun to- That's the alley that goes to the High Roller, which is a, uh- Yes, it's two blocks long. Yeah. What do we call those again? The, what's the tech- what's the technical term for those?
43:15
'Cause a ferr- ferr- Observation wheel. Observation wheel. Okay. Uh, Brian Ortega, the voice of God in my ear, tells me. Observation wheel. Takes 35 minutes to go around. It's fun. Yeah. I'd recommend it.
43:25
Uh, excellent pronunciation on Ghirardelli, by the way, as well. The San Francisco pronunciation of Ghirardelli. Or the Ghirardelli sundae. Don't tell Todd. It's so good. [laughs] Don't, don't tell Todd.
43:34
I'm sure he already knows about it. [laughs] Um, okay. So I'm glad we got a lot covered here. We, uh, we settled the Dodgers thing. You, you made a very reasonable argument.
43:42
I hope people heard my, uh, side of things as well. Uh, Justin Rose. Oh, oh, oh, yes. We- Very important with the Dodgers. Yes. Also, the strength of schedule, they played the Cubs. Yeah. Projected to win the division.
43:52
Tigers. Yeah. Uh, certainly a contender. Philly projected to win- Yes... the division, and Atlanta, I know they have a god-awful record. Part of that's because they lost- But they're in it... three to the Dodgers.
44:01
But- Yeah... but they're an above average team. So they played three games against Washington, which is not a complete and utter cupcake, and they played a first place schedule. So the schedule's gonna get a lot easier.
44:11
We shall see. Justin Rose, two-stroke lead at the Masters, two strokes ahead of, uh, Bryson DeChambeau. Rose is eight under through 10, uh, holes here in his second round.
44:21
And again, the wind should pick up, so we'll see how this shakes out. Two-stroke lead over DeChambeau, four-stroke lead over Ludvig Åberg. Stormy is next with Money Moves. Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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