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Apr 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 14, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 14, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midlin. Hello.
0:20
Producer, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Alongside, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, uh, still to come this hour, this hour alone, Wes Reynolds standing by.
0:30
We'll talk NFL draft as well. The NFL draft, 10 days away. 10 days away. Unbelievable. Sorry, I'm looking up WrestleMania ticket prices. This is insane, Gil. [laughs] We gotta get to that momentarily with Wes.
0:42
Uh, we got tweets @BeatingTheBook. James Sott, "Any fun futures for Stuttgart and or Barcelona?" Said- Stuttgart?...
0:50
said, uh, Castiano, "Also not a golf fan, but watching Rory walking through the crowd after he won was pretty emotional. Great hit, guys. Thank you."
0:58
Um, yeah, Inga's plus money at a tournament that she has won multiple times, gimme that. I saw a plus 140, but I'm told there's a plus 175 out there on her somewhere. MGM?
1:12
J-Rod was all over it, but I'll, I'll be on Inga in Stuttgart. Uh, JasonH11, "Hey Kelly, be careful when criticizing the traditions of the Masters Tournament.
1:21
They can take away your viewing rights if you say anything negative." Yeah, my app's not working all of a sudden. Weird.
1:25
[laughs] Kevin Ryan, "Gil," oh, this is the reason, "Gil, no ama- no amateur made the cut, hence no presentation." Chance Copperpot, "Masters almost felt like Super Bowl 49."
1:37
That's the one where, uh, Malcolm Butler picks off Russell Wilson at the goal line. The Seahawks decide to pass the football.
1:44
He says, "Only difference is Rory threw it out of the back of the end zone instead of right at Butler. He lived to fight another down and won the Masters." Well, there's a comparison. And Jeff Holdorf, uh, backs it up.
1:52
He says, "In order for the low amateur to get to the Butler Cabin ceremony, they were required to make the cut. All five amateurs failed to make the cut, so no soup for Justin Hastings. Seems odd, though.
2:03
Low amateur is still the low amateur," he says. I, yeah. I'm with you, Jeff. I, I agree. Like that, you're still the low amateur. Yeah. Um- That doesn't make any sense.
2:12
[laughs] SNright, Steven Nright, "As a southern man, your southern man imitation is getting better with each passing- [laughs]... each passing Masters, a tradition like no other. Um, Kelly called Ro- Yeah, yeah...
2:24
Kelly called Rory first on the air. Oh. Well, uh, or you heard it first, but yeah. Yeah, yeah. Oh, okay. All right. Good for you. Um, and then, uh- It was on Rory all week, yeah...
2:34
Jeff Holdorf, "Rory on the great reset after missing the putt on 18 to go to the playoff.
2:39
His caddy and dear friend Harry says to Rory as they hop on the cart, 'Well, we would have definitely taken this position on Monday.' The perfect words." That's right, he did say that. Absolutely right.
2:49
Uh, Wes Reynolds joins us now, the glue that holds this whole operation together, Long Shots co-host, and a man who has authored many a golf future, uh, for cashing, joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line.
3:00
How you doing, Wes? I'm doing well, Gil. How are you? I'm doing very well. First things first. Before we get to golf, Kelly just brought it up, WrestleMania. I know this is near and dear to your heart.
3:10
Are you pay- What's, what is the cost of this now for, for, uh- I just looked up for what a single ticket, 'cause it is here in Las Vegas this weekend, Saturday night.
3:18
Uh, $471 is the che- cheapest ticket I can find on, uh, Ticketmaster right now. $471. You can sit upper deck for $1,000. Oh, sweet. Uh, they do know it's fake, right? Are they aware of that? You gotta be careful, man.
3:34
I tell you, one of the first things I learned in sport- sports radio- Yeah... is how many dudes who work in sports radio are obsessed with wrestling. Speaking of one, Wes Reynolds.
3:43
Wes, are you pumped for WrestleMania or not so much?
3:46
I am actually not all that pumped for WrestleMania because of what you mentioned, the, the ticket prices being exorbitant and, uh, I really don't think the build has been, been all that great for the card.
3:56
And now WrestleMania, it's not just one night, it's now two nights, where you have full cards and you have full pre-shows, and y- d- it's a, it's a long night. Like, it i- it is a long night of, uh, of, uh- [laughs]...
4:09
sports entertainment or, uh, pro wrasslin'. I, I'm not a sports entertainment guy, I'm a wrasslin' fan, Gil. There you, there you go. You know? That, hell with all this new nomenclature and this corporate BS.
4:20
A- and Wes, who's currently the most entertaining wrestler out there? Like, if we, if, if I was just checking in on, on, on, on the WWE. Are we still in the WWE or WWF?
4:30
If I was just checking in for the first time, who's the most entertaining guy out there?
4:34
Well, the, the guy that's in the main event, the guy that's the champion, is, uh, one Cody Rhodes, who is the son of the American Dream, the late, great American Dream, Dusty Rhodes.
4:44
And, uh, that was the whole allure of last year's card. He's gotta finish the story, you know, and finally win the championship.
4:51
Well, well, well now he has it, and it's like the storylines just aren't as fresh this year. So, you know, there's gonna be a lot of people here, though.
4:58
I'll be interested to see what the final numbers are if travel, it has been reportedly been slightly down, at least in Las Vegas, to start the year. So, uh, uh, we shall see, but there'll be stuff everywhere.
5:09
There'll be shows around town. There'll be conventions all over town. You can do meet and greets and pay a lot of money to get autographs. I do not do that.
5:19
So, uh, I don't, I don't know what my WrestleMania plan is gonna be. Maybe I'll wait and see if those ticket prices drop. When I was a kid, there was this g- there was this guy, ST Jones.
5:28
Are you familiar with this, Kelly? Nope. ST Jones was this, uh, wrassler, and, uh, h- his, his fights would always follow the same script.
5:34
He would be getting c- crushed, and then he would mount this unbelievable comeback, and I'd be going crazy watching it. [laughs] We had it, like, Saturday mornings on TV, and then he would get crushed at the end.
5:44
Oh, man. It was the same thing, and I f- got snookered into it every time. Special Delivery Jones. Yes. [laughs] Yes. Uh, he w- he was like, uh, uh, what they call a higher level, the term jobber or enhancement talent.
5:56
Ah. And what that means is the guy that goes out there and loses, and puts over, like, the, the big stars on the shows. I was devastated every time. Is The Undertaker still wrestling?
6:04
'Cause I feel like he's been wrestling for, like, 40 years. He's the only one I feel like I still know. He is not.
6:09
He is now officially retired, but I'm sure he will, uh, be in town, uh, in, in full, uh, in full Undertaker gear at some point. All right, Wes, give me, give me just for- forget betting for a second.
6:20
Give me your historical perspective on this round yesterday. As far as final rounds of Masters and majors in general go, where does that rank for you in terms of drama?
6:33
It, well, it, it, it's gonna be hard to be topped, uh, uh, with what we saw yesterday.
6:37
Uh, just, and, and we knew when w- if and when Rory finally accomplished this, if and when he finally won the Career Grand Slam, we knew it wasn't gonna be boring.
6:48
We knew it wasn't gonna be like, okay, he's just gonna run away with it, because I think at one point in the round he had got up five shots, and people were doing the Vince Carter GIFs, "It's over," you know, like he did in the dunk contest.
6:59
I was like, "No, it's not. Something's going to happen." I have been down this road before. We have all been down this road before. So something was gonna happen.
7:08
What happened was he did a practical thing and laid up on 13 and then hit one of the worst wedges- [laughs]... that you ever saw, uh, right into the wa- right into the water.
7:16
So I, I think this has to be up there certainly with the, uh, with the, uh, with the 1986 when Jack won at age 46 and the Vern Lundquist, "Yes, sir," call- Yes... where he, where he hits that putt on 16.
7:29
And, and the 2019, of course, Tiger emerging from that large pack, I, I believe. I, I, I think we actually watched that together, if I recall, one year, Gil- Yes... at, at a sportsbook here in town- That's right...
7:40
where Tiger came in, Molinari hits it in the creek, and the floodgates open, and then there's Tiger Woods there at the end.
7:47
So yeah, that, that, that certainly had a lot of drama, and then you would, and you, you look at Watson and Sink at Turnberry for the Open when, uh, when Watson was 60 years old, and we thought he was actually gonna win the Open Championship.
8:00
Uh, did not happen, but this is certainly at least top five for me.
8:04
And you, so, so if we can get a window into the mind of Wes Reynolds, you did not, correct me if I'm wrong here, you did not have Rory pre-flop, but you got in on him live Thursday and Friday. What was it for you?
8:19
W- I, I believe you did Thursday and Friday. W- Friday, we get it, but if you did it Thursday, what was it about Thursday where you were like, "I'm taking this now"?
8:26
Yeah, I guess I have the distinction of having the worst number on Rory McIlroy at the network, Gil.
8:31
I did not get what you guys got, because I was waiting to see what kind of start he got off to, because that's what's held Rory back at the Masters.
8:39
I had a top 10 going in, and I was like, "Yeah, I'm gonna have some kind of piece of him.
8:43
I just wanna know when to time it right," and I timed it totally wrong, because I played it at, after the back nine, or the front nine rather, on Thursday, where he got up to a three under start.
8:52
It's like, okay, this is what he's been waiting for. Because if you go back, since 2019, he was seven back of the leader. Then the next year, he was 10 back of the leader. Then he was 11 back of the leader.
9:04
Then he was six back. Then he was seven back. Then he was six back, and this is of the first round leader. So it's like he gets three under, and then he's four under in the fairway on the 15th.
9:14
It's like, okay, just get it up and down. He's gonna birdie. He's gonna be five under, and who knows how he's gonna finish the round. Then that chip goes in the water.
9:22
He ends up making two double bogeys, and what do you know? He's seven back again of, of the first round leader in this case, which was Justin Rose. So I did not add more on Friday. I was just like, "You know what?
9:33
Here we go again. I don't wanna add necessarily, uh, any more."
9:37
But Rory at the Masters has been kind of like me sometimes, and maybe other bettors as well, on a college football Saturday or a big college basketball Saturday, where you lose a couple in that early window, and you start out like 0 and 2 or 0 and 3, and then you gotta play catch up over the week, the rest of the card, and that's what Rory has had to do at the Masters.
9:55
And sure enough, he fi- he finally did it here.
9:58
So, uh, yeah, I only got in at, at four to one on Thursday, but, you know, sometimes you, sometimes you lose with the best of the number, and sometimes you win with the worst of it, and I was the latter with Rory.
10:08
Yeah, and when, if he doesn't do that on 15 and 17 in round one, I go from, you know, I, I, I just win the one bet before the tournament. And then because he does that, it turns out to be a monster tournament, right?
10:20
'Cause the opportunity, uh, for me anyway, gives it, because it just creates these opportunities that wouldn't have existed otherwise.
10:26
Does this now, 'cause now everybody's brain sort of toggles to, okay, the monkey's off his back with the Masters. He's got the Career Slam on his 11th try.
10:34
Now he's got Quail Hollow for the PGA, where he's won multiple times, four times. He's got Br- he's got the Open Championship in his backyard. Is this a two or three major kind of year for him?
10:47
It could very well be, because we, we know, I think, like, time is on his side. Uh, he's only 35. He's still in relatively good health.
10:54
Because I remember years ago when Brooks won his fifth major, you're like, "Can he win 10 majors?"
10:59
And I lean toward the no just because of the amount of other players out there and plus injuries, and we didn't even know LIV was gonna be created at that point.
11:08
But look, I think he can, but the big- the biggest battle he's gotta fight besides the injuries is complacency. You know, now he's finally done it. He's been trying to do this for 11 years.
11:19
Now he's finally won the Career Grand Slam. He can sit at the table with Jack and Tiger and Gary Player and Hogan, the whole nine yards. Can he fight that complacency? Does he have that drive to say, "You know what?
11:30
I want more. I wanna get 10 majors. I wanna be one of only four players to ever do it." So it very well could be, but it just, does the complacency set in?
11:39
I hear Jim Nantz in my ear saying, "And Gene Sarazen as well, Wes," so. [laughs] Gene Sarazen, yes. I don't wanna forget Gene. More with Wes on the other side. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a Numbers Game live from Circa, Gil Alexander. We get tweets that beat in the book.
12:06
Jack Olaquire, "Hey Gil, can you ask Kelly or Wes if all LIV golfers qualify for the PGA tournament? Asking for a brother." He might mean literally, 'cause he has three brothers also with a first name- [laughs]...
12:18
starting with J. No, I'll have to check on who's actually qualified. Wes, Wes may have the, uh, more clear answer on that.
12:23
Ben Handorf, "As a Looney Tunes viewer as a child, Gil, your Southern accent is becoming more and more like Foghorn Leghorn. I say, I say."
12:31
Um, let me tell you something, Ben Handorf, it is absolutely based on Foghorn Leghorn. You're onto me. It's completely a Foghorn Leghorn. I'm actually doing Hootie Johnson as Foghorn Leghorn.
12:41
Chris Heath, "I'm coming in Thursday night for WrestleMania this weekend. Not my cup of tea, but friends of mine dig it. Last time I went was New Orleans 2013.
12:50
Couldn't pass on a trip to flaunt my Vegas lifestyle podcast knowledge." There you go, baby. Always flaunt the, uh, Vegas lifestyle knowledge. Well, I mean, like, I'd go. Oh, I'd- If, you know what I mean?
13:02
Like, if it was free. [laughs] I'd go, I'd go, and then I'd probably leave. Right. [laughs] Yeah. That's what I would do. I would like to check one out. Yeah.
13:09
He- I mean, you got Rahm, DeChambeau, Koepka, Hatton all in the field, Cam Smith. And then Nevadazer, uh, "Gil, Baldelli first manager fired?"
13:18
He m- listen, he might be, if they continue like this, 'cause even Spora was perplexed.
13:23
That's the, that is by far the worst of the seven monthly bets that we've made on this show, and I'm, like Spora, I'm kind of like, I'm kind of at a loss to explain it, to be honest with you.
13:34
Um, but yeah, if they continue like this, anything's possible, for sure, uh, with first manager fired. Now, is there a m- does anybody put up that market? I don't know that they do.
13:43
I probably know the one shop that they, they're tweeting about. Oh, okay. All right. Well, offshore. Oh. We're just gonna say it out loud. Around the world. Okay. I don't know. It's probably bet online, probably.
13:54
Wager, wager, uh- Wager on the internet [laughs]... wager on the internet. Yeah, wager on the internet. [laughs] Uh, Wes Reynolds kind enough to join us again for a, for a second segment.
14:00
Before we move on from the Masters, Wes, let me just ask you a couple other questions.
14:03
Uh, just one other question, actually, 'cause we were saying earlier, things to file away, things that we've already known about the Masters, but, like, we have to just ingrain it in our heads, which is Patrick Reed is gonna show up here every time.
14:15
He finishes third outright, so we gotta include Patrick Reed in bets moving forward, no matter what. And then Justin Rose has led after the first round five times.
14:24
Like, I mean, is there something else we're missing where, uh, where you have one of those where you're like, "I must do this auto next time"?
14:31
Well, you pointed out Reed, who now, by the way, vaults, who I had on an outright 100 to 1 before the tournament, he now vaults into the top 50.
14:40
So now I believe that gets him in the rest of the majors, uh, uh, because he's always qualified for the Masters, being a former champion, so he, so he is certainly in there.
14:49
Justin Rose, man, that poor guy, he probably deserves better than what he got, you know? And not just yesterday, but over years, because he's been runner-up twice.
14:57
He should've beaten Sergio that year at the Masters, loses in a playoff. He's been second at the Open Championship, uh, twice.
15:04
So yeah, you feel like that guy deserves better, and he was all class afterwards, as, as you would expect out of, uh, Justin Rose.
15:11
Uh, in terms of a future guy, I think that we see the potential with Ludvig Åberg that he's [laughs] gonna be a fixture in these major championships for a long, long time, and I think he's gonna be a multiple-time major winner.
15:25
Just kind of made a mess of it at the end. I felt for the people that might have backed him on the top five because he goes bogey triple there at the end, and ends up, uh, in seventh outright instead of in the top five.
15:36
So look, I thought it was a great tournament, a lot of really good stories.
15:40
It was nice to see Max Homa play well again, who had not played well basically since last year's Masters, so maybe he found something for Quail Hollow at the PGA next month, where he has won before.
15:51
Do you have any PGA bets? Are they even up in, in multiple locations? They're, there are, there are odds up now. Rory and Scottie are the co-favorites at five to one. Now, now it's co-favoritism.
16:02
It's been Scottie, then Rory. But Rory, by the way, has won four times at Quail Hollow for what was the Wells Fargo, now the Truist Championship, to start later this year.
16:12
Uh, but l- I will, I will be looking at some guys that, that did play well, other, other than Rory. He's certainly the obvious target with the four wins there. But you're s- you're gonna start to see prices up.
16:23
They're maybe not be as up as, uh, uh, in as many places as the Masters was, because the Masters been up for, like, six months, basically. Yeah.
16:31
So yeah, you, you've got numbers at the PGA, so there's some ones to watch, and then we're getting into that spring swing here, where we're gonna be at, uh, at the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head this week.
16:41
So you've got a lot of big names. Uh, uh, sans Rory, of course. I think Rory maybe knew, "Hey, I don't, whatever happens, I don't wanna play this event in South Carolina."
16:50
It's probably a good thing, because I think a lot of us would be looking to bet against him after he had his, uh, career and, uh, life-defining moment here. Yeah, I should've been clearer.
16:58
Had they been up, uh, i- rampantly before this morning, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy both the short shots at five to one. Everybody else double digits. Okay. NFL draft 10 days away.
17:10
You have a, uh, you have a sort of macro take on this.
17:14
Well, uh, yeah, and, and I'm not somebody that bets a lot of NFL draft, because I think the market has become a little bit more sophisticated, which is why bookmakers don't wanna offer it, because they get beat on the NFL draft.
17:26
And we've heard, you know, Derek Stevens, and I've spoken to other bookm- uh, bookmakers and, you know, property owners like, "Yeah, we get killed on this thing, so we really don't wanna book it, but we've gotta s- at least somewhat do right by our customers and have something up."
17:41
I don't bet a lot of it, Gil, because I don't have a lot of time to focus on it.
17:45
I think if you're, you know, really focused on it, you can do very well, but, you know, we're doing the golf stuff, obviously, the lead-up to the Masters, and pretty much on a week-to-week basis.
17:55
And then doing just your normal everyday betting, your NBA, your Major League Baseball, college basketball with March Madness, and it's like, you gotta follow this so closely, because the market is gonna move on, like, one Adam Schefter tweet.
18:10
Like, some agent is gonna tweet him something, and it's gonna get put out there, and then all of a sudden the markets are gonna be r- reacting. So you gotta follow this very closely.
18:19
But, and, and I've been asked about this, 'cause I had an interesting discussion on National Championship Light Night last Monday night with a couple notable bettors and a couple notable bookmakers here in town, and there were different opinions all across the board.
18:33
Some were like, "Oh, you gotta book it, man. You gotta put it up there. There's no inside information here." And it's like, it's all inside information.
18:40
That's what it is, and, and it's all, you know, looking at this and absorbing who's telling the truth and who's lying, because by the way, just a public service announcement for the audience out there, GMs and agents lie They don't always tell the truth, uh, to the media in terms of- What?
18:56
... what they're looking for and what they're trying- That's impossible... who they're trying to trap. Yeah, the hell you say, right? Yeah, so yeah, j- so you gotta filter out what's real and what, and what's the BS.
19:05
And I kinda s- I, I side on the fact that I think that people should book this, but I don't think you have to put max limits on it.
19:14
You know, you don't have to put and give, "Okay, I'm just gonna give you any bet you want. I'm gonna give you any limit you want, yeah, you know, on, on this." No, you don't have to do that if it doesn't go well for you.
19:24
And because of the fact that the bet, nature of the bet is different. But I kinda found myself in somewhat an, an analogous, uh, state yesterday with looking for some NBA player props.
19:36
And yesterday, of course, you know that a lot of the starters sit, so you're gonna have guys that are gonna be playing a lot more minutes. Like, Jaime Jaquez is gonna play a lot more minutes for Miami.
19:46
He might be out of the playoff rotation. So of course I'm looking for player props everywhere, and some of these guys you couldn't find. The bookmakers were not putting them up on the last day of the season.
19:57
I'm like, "Put 'em up. Just give, like, really super low limits," you know, because the circumstances are different. So I think that there's a happy medium to be found here.
20:06
I'm not, I'm not one of those that say, "Hey, you gotta give me any bet at any amount you want or you're, or you're bad, or you're not doing right by your customer." You j- just, just put some stuff up for people to bet.
20:17
Yeah. And just lower the limits. I'm with you. And, and also, it's not the ATM machine it used to be for us, right?
20:22
The last two years weren't as good, so I mean, maybe they shouldn't be as afraid, you, you know- Right... period, on it.
20:27
Um- That's why, that's why I don't bet it, 'cause I don't think I'm that good at it, because I'm not following it as closely as some others. Yeah. All right. I'd be remiss if I, if I let you go without asking you this.
20:36
To the NBA, obviously we have, uh, as I was saying, the four, five, and three, six series have already been established. That includes your Indiana Pacers.
20:45
They're minus 210, uh, in their series, uh, against the Milwaukee Bucks. They're also four-and-a-half point favorites in game one of that series on Saturday. Your feeling on the Pacers?
20:58
I feel like this is the Pacers' series to win. They've kinda owned the Bucks over the last couple years, and I know last year's series was when Giannis missed a couple games and Damian Lillard was out for a couple games.
21:08
So people are kinda maybe thinking, "Okay, water's gonna find its level and it's gonna go the opposite way here." I, I don't necessarily think so.
21:15
I think the Pacers have really b- you know, been the, kinda the Bucks' kryptonite here a little bit, and I'm glad the Pacers actually got the Bucks instead of getting the Pistons.
21:24
Even though the Pistons do not have a lot of playoff experience, the Pistons, I think, are that young, hungry team, kinda like the, what the Pacers were last year, where they eventually ran that to the Eastern Conference Finals.
21:34
So at, at minus $2, I think it's probably about priced right. Now, and, and with a lot of these series prices too, you kinda trade in and out and lock in profit, right?
21:43
A team goes down, go ahead and bet the dog if you have the dog on the other side. So yeah, that, that's, that's one way to play, I think, these NBA series prices. But I, I think that that price l- looks right.
21:56
I gotta tell you, laying $4 on the Knicks is a little bit pricey. I'd be leaning the Pistons in that series. Hmm.
22:01
I, I think that that's a little bit high for the Knicks, because you always worry about the Knicks, of what Tom Thibodeau does, what he did in Chicago, and what he's done in New York.
22:10
He beats these starters into the ground. T- And eventually your energy just gets sapped, and you get this young, hungry Pistons team that's gonna come in unafraid.
22:20
That would be the dog of those four that's the most attractive to me. Wow. Pistons plus 330. You had the same exact instinct I did.
22:26
I, it was, it, look, I, I think the Knicks win that series, but man, I was, that price I was the most surprised by of the, these four that got posted. Wes, you are the best, sir. Appreciate it. Thank you, fellas.
22:38
Wes Reynolds, everybody, @wesreynolds1. That's the number one. Of course, the co-host of the greatest golf podcast there ever was, Long Shots. Uh, we will come back. NFL draft talk next right here on The Numbers Game.
22:50
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23:22
Speaking of Derek Stevens and Circa, a bit of a sweat for them on old Matt McCarty for a while, huh? Oh my gosh, yes. I b- I bet there was some relief, uh, once, uh, once yesterday hit- Well-...
23:33
when he started to drop... he ends up three under for the tournament, which, you know, was eight back. But he was, was it up until... Yeah, I guess it was up until Saturday. I mean, he was in the mix on Saturday, though.
23:46
He was totally in the mix on Saturday. You're talking weekend of the Masters, there was probably some uncomfortable sweating going on in the, uh, oddsmakers' room back here at Circa.
23:54
For those who, uh, for those who, uh, don't know what we're talking about, Matt McCarty, and this was revealed by Mike Palm on By The Books, which precedes us with, uh, Dave Ross and Jensen Lewis, who do a fine, bang-up job of a show before us every Monday- Mm-hmm...
24:07
through Friday morning. Uh, where Mike Palm said, you know, "What's the liability?" was the question, and he said, "Well, this guy, Matt McCarty, some dude rolled up in here, a referral, and was like, 'Can we get...'"
24:18
What was it? Was it 10,000 to win 10 million? I, I don't know what the numbers were. But- He wanted to win eight... he wanted to, he wanted to win- Yeah, yeah, whatever... eight million. Yeah. That's correct.
24:26
He wanted to win eight million. And they s- Jeff Benson was all for it, by the way, they said. Yeah.
24:32
And, and then they, they talked Jeff down, and they said, "No, but we'll do it for two million," so they gave him a quarter of the bet.
24:37
And, uh, Matt McCarty, [laughs] Matt McCarty was in it to win it for at least, at least most of Saturday. Ah, it was, uh, that was one of the biggest surprises of the tournament.
24:47
If, uh, you, we, we would've been talking about that even if we didn't know about this bet, but wow. You had never heard of him before this. I had no idea who the kid was. I, I had no idea.
24:55
And don't you, don't you do a golf podcast? I do, yes, I do a golf podcast. I had no idea who the kid was. Uh, we get tweets that beat the book This game is live, by the way.
25:03
This is [laughs]- This is college base- This is a live co- College baseball game... Oregon and Georgetown are playing, uh, right now in college baseball. Oregon is playing Georgetown? Yeah.
25:09
I was wondering why the, this was all over the circus screens. Uh, C. Spackler, "Doing Hootie Johnson as Foghorn Leghorn is a funny sentence regardless, [laughs] regardless of use." I say. I say, boy.
25:20
Chance Copperpot, "Yo, I'm sorry, but if Wager on the Internet lets us bet on the weather, they damn well better let us bet the first- [laughs]... MLB manager fired." Yeah, well, well, do what they do over there.
25:31
I don't know how much they'll take on it. All right, NFL draft 10 days away. Yeah. Is there anything more fun to talk about than the NFL draft and NFL draft betting? No, I love it. You know, you know we love it.
25:40
We love it. But I'm, I, but listen, what Wes is saying is right. This, I mean, first of all, this used to be an ATM machine for us as bettors, and when I say ATM machine, I am not exaggerating.
25:50
When I had NFL drafts, like, going 12 and one and eight and oh. Mm-hmm. And I was not alone. Like, people, we used to crush this because the books weren't really as hip to the information game as we were.
26:02
Last couple years, not so much. Um, I only have one bet so far. That's Travis Hunter to go number two minus 135. You have more than that.
26:12
Um, let's just go through some of these, some of these, some of these categories, and I will use, once again, Mel Kiper's last mock draft, his 473rd version, and Daniel Jeremiah's last mock, which was a little while ago.
26:30
Mel's was just a few days ago. All right. Quarterbacks. Uh, two and a half is the over under. The over is way juiced now at minus 475. This is courtesy of DraftKings.
26:40
Both of those guys' last two, no surprise, have the over. Yeah, that's, so that price has gone up. Okay. I'm on the over. That one makes complete sense to me. Okay. Now we get to one that gets a little interesting.
26:53
Look at that running backs price. This was priced, this is, this is set at two and a half as well, over under. The under was as heavily juiced as the quarterbacks when it was, like, in the minus $300 range.
27:06
Oh, you, do you wanna know what I laid on it? What? I laid minus 300 on over two and a half quarterbacks. I laid minus 310 on under two and a half running backs.
27:13
Okay, the under two and a half running backs, the under is now down to minus 150. The over is plus 120. This has moved the juice anyway significantly. And so, by the way, there's also consensus.
27:29
Kiper's last draft, uh, mock draft, and, uh, Jeremiah's last mock draft, just to use a couple guys, they both were on the under. What has changed here? I don't know.
27:40
[laughs] I, I'm glad you brought that up 'cause I didn't get a chance... So, uh, somebody tweeted, and I forget who, they, they tweeted at me, I think it was on Friday.
27:46
[laughs] They're like, "Hey, uh, I was going to make some draft bets. Didn't you lay, like, minus 300 on this?" Yeah. "'Cause this is looking juicy."
27:53
And of course, I fr- I mean, when you see a movement, a move like that, right, Gil, I'm like, "Okay, what did I miss," right? And I'm, like, on my phone trying to find whatever.
28:01
I couldn't figure out what I missed, so I don't know if, you know, respected money came in or whatever, but, um, yeah, that is down to [laughs] minus 150. Is it, so who's the third back? Is it Treveyon? Is it Scatabo?
28:13
Like, what, what's the third- Man... what are we assuming here? Or, or is this just a couple dudes making a few bets that moved it that much? Yeah, I, it might be. It might. I mean, I think it's supposed to be Henderson.
28:22
It's also the one where, like I was telling you in the, this morning, I'm thinking, "Boy, I need to make some NFL draft bets. It's only 10 days away. I need to make w- some beyond the one I have."
28:32
And I was thinking about the quarterbacks and the running backs, thinking that they were the same price that they were, and it was actually the under two and a half running backs that I liked better than the over two and a half quarterbacks, and now it's come all the way down.
28:45
I'm making this bet. You've had, [laughs] well, you've had big price moves in both. [laughs] I can tell you, I think it's easy to know which one to go bet right now.
28:51
I just can't imagine in this day and age where we're gonna draft three running backs in the first round. Yeah, yeah, I know. I, that, that's where, like, I, I understand the excitement for Gentty.
29:01
I understand that we saw a season in the NFL where running backs were important, but why, but why, Gil? Like, we, we always have to ask why, right? Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry went to good teams.
29:13
Like, they were good running backs- They're-... playing on bad teams who went to good teams. Saquon and, and Derrick Henry are also generational. Correct. That also, that went to great offenses already. Yes. Like...
29:25
Uh, wide receivers also set at two and a half, the over heavily juiced minus 270. Both Jeremiah and Kiper's latest mocks have the over, so they're in consensus, uh, with those three first categories. Is it three?
29:38
Do you ha- oh, sorry, I'm putting you on the spot. Is it three exactly that they have? Uh, good question. I can't remember. O- okay. But they're both over.
29:44
Offensive lineman is where it starts to get a little interesting. This is set at six and a half. The under is juiced at minus 200. Jeremiah's last one, he was under. He's with the, uh, the favorite.
29:57
Kiper's last one, he went over six and a half. I wanna say he had eight.
30:03
Yeah, see, thi- this is, like, kinda going back to what you said about running backs, just, like, if I was just gonna go automatically one way or the other, it'd be over on offensive lineman.
30:14
Like, they're just so- What, plus 150? Yeah... so valuable. Absolutely. Defensive lineman/edge set at eight and a half, the over slightly juiced at minus 140. Both Kiper and Jeremiah went under at plus 110.
30:28
Yeah, that was one that I, I was a little surpr- I hadn't really looked at much until- Eight and a half is a lot.
30:33
Yeah, I hadn't really looked into that one as much until I typed these up and started looking around at that one, 'cause I thought, like, look, there's a lot, there's supposed to be several early, right?
30:41
I wasn't sure after later in the draft who, who we'd really get. Well, it also doesn't include linebackers, so that, you know, that's not, that's not part of that as well. Right.
30:49
And then there's cornerbacks, again, specifically cornerbacks, not secondary, but specifically cornerbacks, uh, the under is heavily juiced under four and a half at minus 295.
30:59
Jerem- uh, Kiper went under, but Jeremiah went over. I think he had five corners going Okay. All right? I'll have to double-check that, but I think that's right. So that's a little interesting as well.
31:12
Now we get to the top 10. This is, so will a player be drafted in the top 10 or not? Um, that's a, that's a market you can bet as well.
31:22
I will say that both, again, just, and we're just relying on these two guys, take it for what it's worth, but two big names in the, in the mock game, Kuyper and, and Jeremiah.
31:31
Jeremiah has been rock solid through the years. It's, it's not, the, the biggest favorites, they're all in consensus. So Mason Graham, Will Campbell, uh, Jalin Walker, Ashton Jeanty, Armon Membunt.
31:47
All, all of those guys, and Shedeur Sanders. And Shedeur Sanders, by the way. Both Jeremiah and Kuyper all have them going top 10. Those, the six in the left column there, that are all heavily juiced.
31:59
Including Sanders, by the way, who the Saints conveniently are at nine, and now we don't know about Derek Carr anymore. We don't know if Derek Carr's playing football this year. Yep.
32:09
So they went, they went all in on those six guys on the left.
32:11
As far as what's on the right- Th- this one's interesting too, just of like, I always like this market, Gil, c- 'cause compare, compare to draft positions, right?
32:21
Whenever we see these top 10s, top fives, some of these guys are expected to go early. Just compare the pricing to draft positions and, and you might w- might sway you one way or the other in each market. Yeah.
32:32
On, as far as the guys on the, on the right side, Kuyper had Tyler Warren going to the Bears at 10.
32:39
That's the only one of the guys on the right, and we're talking Will Johnson, Jaxson Dart, uh, Michael Williams, Tedarrell McMillan, Kelvin Banks Jr. That's the only one that either Jeremiah or Kuyper had going top 10.
32:51
Really? Which is Kuyper taking Warren top 10. None of- Jeremiah doesn't have Warren top 10? He does not. Wow. Not, not his latest anyway. I was actually considering making that bet.
32:59
Of course, he's due for an, a new mock here pretty soon. Warren top 10, I, I, that might be a bet I'm on. That, it is, I mean, I think the, the, the two tight ends are extremely coveted it sounds like this year.
33:13
Um, but man, I think Tyler Warren, I think he ends up going top 10. I did make a bet. I bet McMillan to go top 10 here. Oh, you did? I took a shot at five to one. Five to one was up at MGM when they posted.
33:23
Um, I, I took a shot there. I think big play wide receiver, there's a chance a team gets greedy and goes after him. L- I love Tedarrell McMillan. Love his game. Um,
33:33
is Jeremiah gonna do that thing where he waits till like the last day to put out his last mock? I, I mean, I don't blame him, but he does go a lot of time in between his.
33:40
And then he'll do like the group press conferences. All of our bets next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game. Un partido de números.
33:59
Live from Circa. It's time for our G Bank Best Bets of the day. G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. Not much on today's show. We're sort of, uh, reveling in the, uh, the Masters. I did bet Iga Swiatek to win Stuttgart.
34:13
Uh, the clay court tournament at Stuttgart, which she has won multiple times before. Got her at plus 140. You could probably find a better price. Guess what, though? Not in Nevada, 'cause they don't exist.
34:25
Not even over at Stations? Oh, I didn't check Stations. Maybe I should stay, check Stations. Yeah. Well, come on, have you not learned anything this tennis season? Let's go. [laughs] By the way- Uh, hold on a minute.
34:32
I'm guessing... Hold on, Brendan. Yes, I did spell Stuttgart right. You can take that, that's right. Do you know what- Stuttgart... you know what happens at Stuttgart if you win this tournament?
34:41
Not only do you win money, you also win a Porsche. Are you serious? Yeah. You get a car. That, uh, that's awesome. Yeah. I love when like the golf tournaments or whatever... Uh-oh, I turned on Siri somehow.
34:51
Go away, Siri. Um, the, uh, I love when the golf tournaments or tennis tournaments do random stuff like that. It's like, "Hey, here's a big check," and then like a, a Honda something. You're like, "Cool."
35:02
Iga looking to win her- Early there... third tournament at Stuttgart. You got any- Porsche's a little different. You got anything? I do. I do have a c- I do got a few NBA plays I made, uh, on openers last night.
35:11
Uh, okay, for play-in, Heat/Bulls, I went under 220. That is one I'm struggling to understand a little bit with that total.
35:20
Uh, but look, I think there's a lot of people that just look to play the unders on these, these play-in tournaments anyways. Uh, I think, or the play-in games anyways. I think that makes a lot of sense.
35:29
But, uh, Heat/Bulls specifically, this is a, d- just a Miami offense that to me has been, I, I...
35:35
Look, they've been great recently if you just look like past 10 games, the offense has actually been really good, but I don't really trust them, uh, i- in a big time match up like this ga- look, like this game is going to be.
35:46
Uh, these play-in g- games are massive. And the Bulls, it's so reliant on Josh Giddey. I don't where, uh, exactly where the rest of that offense is coming for, uh, from.
35:54
Well meanwhile, the Heat always bring good defense and hard defense during, uh, the playoffs. So I do like the under in that one. Laid the four and a half with the Pacers in game one on Saturday against the Bucs.
36:05
Would expect we see that get up to f- ma- five, maybe five and a half, and then if Dame News comes down, who knows where else that goes.
36:12
Um, and then also played the Pacers series price over the Bucs at minus 195, and Clippers series price over the Nuggets plus 130. You did not play the Nuggets, though.
36:24
You think it's mispriced, but you didn't go ahead and pull the trigger. Knicks. Knicks, you mean? Uh, excuse me, yeah, the, the, uh, Pistons versus the Nuggets. Y- yeah, it is, um...
36:32
I feel bad being that guy 'cause someone did ask me, someone did ask me for what did I think that series price was gonna be, and I thought it was gonna be Knicks like minus 350 or something like that. It is way higher.
36:42
I, I think there's, I think there's value on that Pistons number, but I still, over, over the course of seven games, I got a hard time seeing the Pistons beating the Knicks, Gil.
36:51
I think, look, I think it's, I think JVT played the over on that series, like over five and a half games. I think that's a good look, or if you wanted to take games with the Pistons, that's how I'd play it.
37:00
NBA playoffs is still awesome. Oh, they're great. I wish the first round wasn't best of seven, but still. They're great. I'll be, I'll be honest.
37:06
I mean, I've talked about it a lot on this show, and I've talked a lot about it with you. Past couple NBA regular seasons The past two years I've had great betting NBA regular seasons.
37:15
Last, last year, I think this will always stick in my mind for the rest, for the end of time. I was up 44 units in the regular season last year in the NBA. I gave 20 back in the playoffs.
37:24
So I will be [laughs] I will be cautious this time around when it comes to playoffs. And, and I have made the point that you're almost, for the playoffs, you're almost better off not being an NBA hardo sometimes- Yes.
37:34
No, I-... and just showing up for the playoffs. Carl Zack, he's on the Warriors minus six and a half. Tomorrow play-in game seven, eight.
37:41
The winner is the seven seed in the Western Conference and will be up against the two seed Houston Rockets.
37:48
Warriors, uh, six and a half point favorites tomorrow against the Grizzlies, and he's on the Bulls, uh, in the Eastern Conference 9-10 game. Bulls at a pick 'em, uh, in the 9-10 game. That is on Wednesday night.
38:04
I was, I was try- I was trying to find this, the Heat note. Sorry. That's what I was stumbling over. How about past 12 games, second, second best offensive rating in the league for the Heat, right?
38:14
But if you go back the past 26 games, 21st. Yeah. I- Like, that's kind of a weird split I, I would never touch that game because I just, I cannot go up against the Heat- No, I hear you... in these, in these moments.
38:26
I hear you. Yeah. Just as a principle. I, I, uh, glad you brought that up. For, s- for the side, I lean the Bulls too. Yeah. Like, like Carl, I lean that way, but kinda what you said, nah, I'm good. Yeah.
38:35
I'll play the total. I don't need to bet the side there. I don't need to go up against Bolster. I just wanna read this one tweet from Rhodes @rhodesknows.
38:41
He says, "Can you guys discuss the pros, cons of drafting best player available versus drafting need? Thanks for the great show." Thank you for the kind comment.
38:49
This gives us an opportunity to sort of say as a betting show, we are not gonna sit up here and, and, and try to act like, you know, we're talent evaluators, 'cause we're not.
38:59
We're all about winning bets in the NFL draft.
39:02
Um, I could go on about, you know, that the draft is a game that GMs should recognize as a game against other GMs and front offices, and they should play the draft that way largely.
39:14
But in terms of drafting best player available versus drafting need, that's gonna be a, a per team s- you know, per team situational, uh, answer to that question. But we're really not about that.
39:25
We're not about evaluating talent. We're just about getting the draft right and to the extent that the props will actually be up in any kind of volume, uh, we will try to exploit that.
39:35
Uh, I, I will s- I will say this also on a football note, 'cause we didn't bring this up last week, and shame on us for not doing so, but our own Brent Musburger, Brent Musburger, founder of VSiN, uh, one of the founders of VSiN, long time, of course, play-by-play announcer for those of us of a certain age, he was the NFL, and specifically the NFC, uh, when he hosted the NFL Today in the '70s and '80s, and I believe into the early '90s, though don't hold me to that, um, along with Phyllis George and then Jayne Kennedy in that seat, Jimmy the Greek, uh, obviously Irv Cross as well, Jack Whitaker with his essays for some time.
40:09
But Brent, um, was inducted or is going to be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame, Kelly.
40:17
Uh, he will receive the 2025 Pete Rozelle Radio-Television Award, uh, recognizing broadcast excellence in pro football, "And Brent certainly measures up to that standard," said Jim Porter, president and CEO of the Hall of Fame.
40:30
Uh, Brent will get himself a gold jacket, um, that in- well, he will get, he will be there honored during the 2025 Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinement Week.
40:39
That includes the Enshinee's Gold Jacket Dinner in downtown Canton, Friday, August 1st, and then the class of 2025 enshrinement on Saturday, August 2nd. So congratulations to our own Brent Musburger.
40:51
Um, i- uh, to say it's well deserved is the understatement- Ha... of all time. I mean, you know what my first thought was when, when you were reading that? He's not in already? Yeah. What, how do, is it possible- Yeah...
41:00
to take this long? Well- But congratulations, Brent. That is incredible. That's awesome.
41:04
What an, what an honor Remember Super Bowl Sunday a couple years ago, I, we were on, and that they aired the NFL Today documentary that morning, and I remember coming on and just being like, "How is this man not in the Hall of Fame?
41:16
We gotta get him in the Hall of Fame." And, uh, here he is. He's in, and it couldn't happen to a more deserving person. I just wonder, does he have someone...
41:24
You know how the enshrinees, they, they have someone introduce them, like their son or their wife- Yeah, yeah... or whatever. Does Brent get that as well?
41:30
Does he c- is he gonna have, like, Greg Peterson in- induct him into the Hall of [laughs] How does that work? I would, I would pay- Little reversal... to see that. Yeah, I would pay to see that.
41:38
Greg paying back Brent for all of his, uh, great intro work. The, uh, I mean, I mean, look, this is, uh, a, he, he means a lot to both you and me.
41:45
I mean, if this is, if we're talking about VSiN and sports betting content being the second half of a, of a career or the second part of my career, I, I, I owe it all to Brent.
41:55
I would not be here if I wasn't able to run into him a couple times in South Florida, talk to him, and as soon as I saw the Musburger name attached to this company, it's what brought me out, out to Las Vegas to wanna work here and to work, and to work for, uh, the Musburger.
42:08
So Brent- None, none of us would, none of us would be here- Yeah... without Brent. That is for sure. Um, so congratulations to, uh, to Brent, and we look forward to that day in August as I'm sure he is as well.
42:19
Um, before we leave, before we leave and give away to Stormy here, play-in games tomorrow and on Wednesday. You made a couple plays in these games? I think these are...
42:28
Yeah, I mean, I think overall from the betting standpoint, they're pretty gross. I will... We talked about it more off air. Carl was way high on the Warriors.
42:36
Have you heard Carl as confident on anything since he started doing regular guest spots with us? Well, yes, but I was surprised that... 'Cause that's a big number. It's a big number.
42:45
It was seven, and then, well, I should, I should say this. It was seven, and then as Carl gave that out, it's now seven and a half. So I don't know if, you know, if Carl was in a "Did I do that?" kinda thing.
42:56
There's a lot of seven still available. Okay, but I'm seeing seven and a half offshore now. So, um, Carl was surprised when he was on that it had ticked down to six and a half, which is where he got it.
43:05
But he's- Yeah, those are gone. Those are gone.
43:07
So that's the Grizzlies, that's the War- Grizzlies traveling to San Francisco to take on the Warriors tomorrow night, uh, the second of the two games, the, uh, Hawks and the Magic. Are those staggered, uh, starts?
43:17
Yeah, no, one finishes before the other starts. Yeah. Good. Okay. It's 7:30 and then 10 Eastern. Hawks-Magic early. Oh, that's excitement. For the third time in the past, like s- what, six days I think it is. Yeah.
43:28
What'd you end up betting? Um, Heat-Bulls under 220. Uh, it's, it's more, there's 219, 219 and a halves out there. I would still lean that way. Um, that's the only bet I have in the play-in games. Mavericks-Kings
43:43
is kind of interesting to me. This is... I, I can't believe I'm really considering this, but if it gets over five, I, I might end up on the Dallas side. Kings, Kings favored by five in the 9:10 on Wednesday. Yeah.
43:55
I, I, I think that's... The Kings have not been all that impressive to, to, uh, to me lately. So, uh, that one, look, Hawks-Magic I want nothing to do with. I do think Orlando takes care of them.
44:05
I think the Warriors are, um, I would look at them, look, money line, and if you're doing money line parlay or something or looking at a game on Saturday, I do think they are a good leg.
44:14
If you love the Knicks, Knicks-Warriors money line parlay, I got nothing. I got no problems. [laughs] Congratulations to everybody who had Rory in some form in all the golf bets that you had. What a day of golf.
44:25
What a day of sports. What was Will's line? "Imagine not liking sports after that drama yesterday." Matt Brown had a winner. Money Moves next with Stormy and Matt. Enjoy.
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