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Apr 15, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 15, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 15, 2024 | Hour 1
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48:48
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you by DraftKings live from Bar Canada. At the D, it's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer was happening. Not much, but man, how you doing? Doing very well. Um, great Monday, 'cause it's the Monday right after the Masters.
0:29
It's the Monday, uh, right after the NBA regular season ends, so we have NBA playoff series scheduled, um, NB- uh, NFL draft now ramping up for, for real now finally. Two weeks of this. It, it just feels like
0:45
different from any other year. It is. Yeah. It feels like we had way much more of a ramp up. It is, but I put in one more bet on it yesterday. I was gonna say, I had two bets that I'm gonna make after the show today.
0:52
There you go. I got another bets, a couple bets to make tomorrow, so it's gonna definitely... And all I did was make more Wembanyama bets at the end of last week. Good. Good. [laughs] I s- I'm s- because you know what?
1:01
'Cause I think to myself, I'm like, "What is my best use of my gambling dollar today?" And it's still Wembanyama at nine to one. Can't disagree. Yep. You can't disagree. Uh, let's talk about the Masters.
1:10
I wanna, I wanna do a couple PSAs here in the, uh- VSiN straw poll later in the show on that... VSiN straw poll on, o- on straw poll on NBA awards. Yeah. You and Dustin did this? We put this together.
1:20
We had t- I believe it is 10 total on-air personalities here at VSiN, where we asked to give their one through thr- uh, one through five on MVP. Yeah.
1:28
And then, uh, uh, give us the w- the winner for the rest of the awards. So we'll go over those later in the show. Later in the show. [laughs] I see that I was, I was a Michael Wilbon outlier on one of them, I see.
1:39
[laughs] Um, okay. We'll get into that.
1:42
Um, just a couple PSAs here, uh, to start the show, 'cause it, it hearkens back to a couple things we were talking about last y- last week, and I think it's worth emphasizing again.
1:50
One is, how about Scottie Scheffler and the Masters? Ugh. A four-stroke win for Scottie. World number one. Four-stroke, uh, win, 11 under for the tournament.
1:58
Four-stroke win over, uh, Ludvig Åberg, uh, a debutant who finished second. So apparently you can't win, but you can finish second.
2:06
Uh, Tommy Fleetwood and Max Homa among those who were, uh, seven back, uh, behind Scheffler. Um, I just wanna say this again, w- you know, 'cause you saw a lot of people on...
2:17
[laughs] I didn't say a lot of people, but I saw a couple people on Twitter was like, "I told you about Scottie Scheffler." [laughs] And I'm like, "Uh, really?" So- Uh, people are so funny on that... people are so funny.
2:26
L- literally, like, when Brady was still here, right, I remember, like, more than two years ago, I remember saying to him on th- on a Numbers Game, saying, like, th- my line was, "Scottie Scheffler is built different.
2:37
This guy's different." Like, I think, and I said, every time he enters a tournament, you should probably consider betting on him, in every single tournament that he, that he enters.
2:45
Um, but I, I don't say that to say, "Hey, look at," you know. I, I bet him aggressively in this tournament. Yeah, you did. Yep. I came in Friday.
2:52
I said, uh, you know, when he got to three under on Thursday, I'm like, plus 240, I can't wait any longer. He's, this tournament's over. Well, and then you, what, you added him on Friday at least, right?
3:01
Added him Friday. Yeah. Added him a couple times over the weekend. But all that did, Kelly, though, and here's the first PSA. I say that not to say, "Hey, look, I bet Scottie Scheffler," big deal.
3:10
I say that to say, if it weren't for someone as unbelievable as Scottie Scheffler, what did I talk about? The biggest leaks in sports betting is often golf, and specifically golf outrights. If it wasn't, if it...
3:22
This was Jon Rahm or a Rory McIlroy lever, uh, level, or pick your other great golfer that isn't Scottie Scheffler, this probably doesn't work out, and it probably ends up being a massive loss.
3:35
But because it's Scheffler, he makes up for all of your other crappy bets, and you end up getting a profit. Not a huge profit, but you end up making up for the rest of your horrible, potentially awful golf losses. Yes.
3:49
And so that's, to me, that again is the PSA of, of golf betting if you're new or new-ish. Not everyone is a Wes Reynolds type. Most of us are mere mortals betting golf. And so that's just how unbelievable he is.
4:02
And by the way, let me just say this. From Thursday night to yesterday through eight holes, this was the most slow-moving leaderboard I think I ever remember in any tournament.
4:17
And it was e- exemplified by a couple things. One, Max Homa went 33 holes without a birdie- Right. Yeah... and was still only two shots back. Yep.
4:26
And the other part was in the betting market, in the live betting market, the reason you were able to continue to bet Scottie Scheffler at your leisure, quite frankly, was because the only time he drifted out of this little pocket between short plus money and short minus money, wh- and Jack Larkin at Sports Trade reminded me of this.
4:44
He got, like, I think Saturday afternoon at one point he was three to one, or four to one offshore, but three to one, uh, legal, in legal markets. But that was the only blip out of it. Mm-hmm.
4:54
Where you had a chance to really, you know, have him at a great number. Yeah, yeah. And I, and I wanna, I wanna go back to yours.
4:59
I mean, just, you know, Masters betting, I think you put it perfectly with a- with Scheffler, the type of guy that you can feel confident, right, doing the stuff like that.
5:08
Um, a- and I bet h- bet it a little bit different way. I mean, in, in full transparency, I got my teeth kicked in on the Masters. It was ugly, uh, all around except for a couple, couple of my bigger bets getting home.
5:18
That was nice. But, uh, like, I wouldn't even count this as part of my Masters betting, but it was Satur- Saturday, Saturday night. Um, and we don't often do this.
5:27
We don't often talk about this, but certain times there are, there are parlays I think that can make sense when you talk about guys that you're that confident in.
5:36
And it was, it started for me with Pereira [laughs] on the UFC card on Saturday night, and- Shout out to Jordan Sherwood- Jo-... who had himself a night. Yeah, he had a night. Yeah. Jordan and Lou were both on Pereira.
5:45
Yeah. I tied him in.
5:47
Uh, I tied him in with Scottie Scheffler, and then a few NBA sides yesterday that really I don't often do stuff like that, but was pretty confident in the NBA sides, confident in Scottie Scheffler, confident in Pereira.
5:59
So that was a nice little eight and a half to one m- you know, parlay that hit.
6:04
But like you're talking about, how many guys are you confident enough to sink, uh, you know, sink any kind of money in and actually e- expect them to get home? Yeah, Scottie Scheffler, few and far between.
6:14
I mean, I thought this was interesting, too, of just the, yes, yes, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa are great golfers. Nobody thought they were gonna be around at the end. I mean, you're talking about the top- No...
6:25
of the odds board. So this- Nobody really giving Scottie a challenge... this is the best stretch of golf, and I think I speak for many when I say this, it's the best stretch of golf from any golfer
6:35
outside of Tiger Woods that I think I've seen in my lifetime. I, I feel pretty confident in saying that. Yeah. Right? Uh, Jack Nicklaus had won half of his majors by the year 1971.
6:45
He had won two-thirds of them by the year 1973. So none of us were really cognizant of what was going on then. But in our lifetime, this is, outside of Tiger, the best.
6:54
Now, our, our friend, Matt Brown, your, your co-host at, uh, on Long Shots, he, he says Scottie's the GOAT, given the competition, which I push back a little on, because I'm like, well, it's not Tiger's fault.
7:06
And he, he was clear to say, "Well, I'm not taking away from Tiger." But I said that's even bolder, right, for him to say that. He's got Scheffler as the GOAT. Yeah, I'll check in with him on that again tomorrow. Yeah.
7:15
But I'll say- [laughs]... it's, it's the best stretch of golf from anybody outside of Tiger in our lifetime. And, and it was a tournament through eight yesterday, and it was the ninth hole that turned it all around.
7:26
Scheffler with the shot that I don't know how it didn't go in on the approach shot. He ends up birdying nine, while Collin Morikawa double bogeys it.
7:34
And of the contenders, and I think you were making this point, the one guy that if you had Scheffler bets that you were really scared of was Morikawa, because he had shown him, he had shown his mettle in previous majors, multiple majors, two, two of them.
7:48
Uh, two-time major winner already is the Bay Area native. So he was the guy you were worried about. And, oh, Berger, as great as he was playing, you know, he did go into the drink. Mm-hmm.
7:58
Uh, which, which kind of sealed his deal, even though he was, uh, steady as she goes thereafter. Uh, Max Homa, as great as he was, uh- Just couldn't make that next step...
8:09
the, the anti-Semitic bounce at the 12th hole, as I like to call it off the green. [laughs] That's true. We, uh, we took care of our little Max Homa problem, if you know what I mean. Oh, man.
8:19
He's like, he's like, uh, "Activate the trampoline springs." [laughs] That's one of those greens that's so weird. On 12. How that ball bounced into the bushes like that. Ah, they're wild.
8:26
[laughs] Uh, it w- and that's always, 12 is always, it's forever been the I'm gonna bail out long and left, right? Yeah. Take the water out of play. You just never see that.
8:35
Usually it, usually it rolls up, uh, into the, uh, you know, in, into the, uh, straw, uh, straw, pine straw there, and it rolls back down a little bit, and he just caught an unlucky break there.
8:47
It, this is, you're talking about eight golfers that finished under par for this tournament, though. That's it. Scottie Scheffler finished 11 under. Eleven under, yeah.
8:53
Gil, he didn't even, like, the parts of his game that he kills in, his approach game was meh for the week. It was average. Yeah. [laughs] But, like, this is a week where, like, oh, but then he putted average.
9:06
And what do we always say? If the guy just putted average- Oh, this, this wouldn't even be a sport at that point... he, it wouldn't be a sport. Yeah. And this is what you get when that happens. Yeah.
9:14
Um, by the way, it should be said the opposite. It, he did kind of scuffle those first tr- eight holes yesterday. Yeah. He was making saves.
9:21
And if Morikawa's putter was on, that might have been a different ending yesterday. But it wasn't, and Morikawa couldn't take the lead. And so that back nine was about the, you know, there's always moments, right?
9:35
But in terms of we always say nothing's easy in betting, it was about as unsweaty a sweat as you'll ever have. Yeah. I, I, I, and I'll bring it back to Thursday, Friday, too, when weather was an issue.
9:46
You and I were texting about this.
9:48
I don't know if we really talked about it on air on Friday, but, like, when the weather was the issue, there were so many golfers that you were just looking at, and just, just getting, the course was just wrecking.
9:57
And you could see it on their face, you could see it with every shot. And then there's Scottie Scheffler, just, "Dun, I'm just gonna take my pars. Pars are fine. I'll put myself up there when I can."
10:08
And it just, it, it, it vaulted him into the weekend, where he was able to take this. So here's the question. The next major is the PGA.
10:14
Remember, last few years, the golf major schedule's changed, where the PGA is second. But as we have talked about many times, his wife, and by the way, shout out to Mrs. Scheffler for, uh- [laughs]...
10:25
for holding it together. I believe that's a medical term, ladies and gentlemen. [laughs] Holding it together. Um, so that, that didn't come into play.
10:32
Um, but because he will be a n- well, we assume he will be a new father, does it k- does it give you pause to bet Scottie Scheffler in the PGA? In other words, his mind will be elsewhere? No.
10:45
Or are you like, no, just bet him? I mean, I, I know there, I know there's, I know Wes brings it up all the time. There's the opposite thinking with that kind of stuff sometimes, too. You are so euphoric.
10:52
Yeah, yeah, exactly, that you ride that high, I guess, if you will. Yeah. But the, uh, I, I don't, I'm not. Though he's like- If Scottie Scheffler, I don't know what could make a difference.
11:01
The guy would have to, I don't know- He's so-... lose an arm or something for it to make a difference. And he's also, like, the most, uh, he's just the most reluctant champion. If you listen to him afterwards.
11:11
I, I, I mean, if you want to go full sports talk radio, is it good or bad for the PGA Tour that Scottie Scheffler makes it, makes this look so easy and so boring? I don't know what the answer is.
11:20
I don't know about the look, but I'm talking about, like, the post-tournament interviews- Yeah... where he's like, "I just don't want to be here." Right. Kind of, kind of attitude. It's- It's meh, whatever.
11:28
Yeah, that part is not good. No. That part is not good for the tour. But the play, I mean, come on, it's great when there's a great golf- It's incredible. Yeah.
11:36
Um, congratulations to all who had, uh, Scottie Scheffler, but there's your golf PSA. I will have an NBA PSA, 'cause we talked about betting the last day of the regular season. We'll talk about that coming up.
11:46
First, though, baseball with Board Short next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
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12:06
In today's newsletter, all about the Masters, expert picks and analysis, betting strategies with the NBA playoffs on top of us. Play in first, of course, tomorrow night and Wednesday night, then the playoffs. Playoffs?
12:19
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12:29
It's Gil Alexander, it's, uh, Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D. We get tweets at Beating the Book.
12:34
I just wanted to, uh, read this 'cause we're gonna have to put, Kelly, we're gonna have to put the, uh, the Hootie Johnson, uh, imitation to bed for a year now.
12:42
So, you know, apologies on that, but it goes by the wayside. This was from- I mean, there might be other reasons to use it in the future. Uh, maybe. [laughs] Activate the trampoline springs on 12.
12:55
Trip Tepper, uh, hat tip to you, Gil. You mentioned trying to identify betting leaks. I found a leak. Betting golf major outrights, outrights weeks or months in advance of the event.
13:05
Bets placed this week, plus 21.88 units. Bets placed well in advance, minus 10.6 units. Sometimes it works out that way.
13:15
Uh, Bob Henning, it's been three days of me pronouncing the, uh, word tournament like Hootie Johnson. Thanks. Um, and then we had one about lifting weights. Somebody was lifting weights and he, uh,
13:26
heard some Hootie, almost dropped the weight on himself. Uh, we'll get into that. Uh, more tweets coming up later on the show, but we have so much to talk about. Let's start with some baseball.
13:34
Mark Borchert joins us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. You can follow him @basewinner, basewinner.com. What's happening, Mark? Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. I'm doing good, Gil.
13:45
I'm really enjoying this season. I love the first of 10 wins. I like the pace of play. It seems like I, I wasn't able to, to, to do a, a check on this, but it seems like the games are shorter than they were last year.
13:57
And as a traditionalist, I, I would m- you know, my first guess is, well, don't change the game, but if, but not the pitch clock. But I think it's really helped out.
14:05
I think it's, it's really made the game, uh, easier to watch a- and bet-- to be perfectly upfront, it's easier to bet on 'cause your bets are s- are, are resolved quicker, Gil. Resolved quicker.
14:16
You don't have to go through as much- Yeah. Yeah, you don't have to go through as much of a sweat, you know.
14:21
Go to sleep and you don't know what your, you don't know what your, what the, what the result is here on the West Coast. Yeah.
14:26
Well, I d- I do think you've hit on a bit of a conundrum, which is, you know, baseball purists would rather no rule ever get changed.
14:33
Whereas if you're trying to bring people into the tent, you gotta make some of these moves. The pitch clock is one I think that was universally, generally liked, um, by all.
14:43
Now, now you have these, you know, people drawing the line for, t- from pitch clock to pitcher arm problems, and it probably is in the mix of, of reasons w- that you can attribute. It's not the only one.
14:54
Um, but that's baseball's conundrum, right? It's like you can't, you're never gonna please everybody.
14:59
And in a sport where now networks are drifting away, and we just went through them last week, ESPN's contract ends after this year, you know, you really do wonder, is this gonna be a sport that goes by the way of, you know, the same way that horse racing and boxing did, which were big sports when we were kids.
15:16
And I wanna bring up one other point, which is umpiring.
15:19
Um, so here you have this sport that has all these other inherent problems, and the very officiating of the sport might be the biggest blight on it as, uh, you know, m- as, as anything.
15:29
And let me just go to the Guardians. By the way, we had a bad weekend with the-- if you had the Guardians bet s- trying to win two of three, trying to win that series against the Yankees.
15:38
They only ended up winning one of three, so lost the series two games to one, and they did it with dramatic comeback yesterday, which keeps our bet, our, our March/April bet alive. Right now, the Yankees have 12 wins.
15:49
The Pirates and Dodgers have 11, and the Guardians, Brewers, and Royals each have 10. Brewers 10 and four, Guardians 10 and five, Royals 10 and six. So it's a very, it's still very knotted up with that win yesterday.
16:01
But the series really came down to who wanted or didn't to the very first game. There was a double header on Saturday 'cause weather, uh, postponed the Friday game.
16:10
So the first game on Saturday, bottom of the ninth, great at-bat by Estevan Florial. He's holding his bat on his shoulder. He wants to swing so badly, but there's these pitches that keep coming in low and inside.
16:22
They're clearly off the plate. And he gets, he works an 0-2 count to 3-2. Same pitch, low and inside, way off the plate, rung up. Strike three, out number two, and the Guardians end up losing to the Yankees.
16:34
Now let me just be fair. There was a game earlier in the year where the Guardians were playing the Twins at Target, and there were 11 missed calls graded by the umpire, 10 of which went against the Twins.
16:47
How do you fix this, Mark? Is this ever gonna change?
16:52
Well, I certainly hope so, Gil, and they have the tech- Well, I think what's aggravating to me is, like, even, like, when we started doing the show, like, uh, I don't know, 100 years ago it seems like.
17:02
But when we started doing it, the, the technology hadn't really evolved to that point where they could do it. But now they have it. They need to institute it.
17:10
Because you, you brought up a specific example, but you could bring up an example in every game, Gil. Every game. I mean, it happens- Every game. Every game. That's right. Yeah.
17:16
So, so, you know, I, I think it's, it's fairly simple. You know, you, you see the te- you're, you're a tennis guy. You see them in tennis. They, they challenge, they, they get a ruling, and they, they move on.
17:28
And so give them three challenges and that, that's that. And I don't know why it's so hard. You know, I d- I really don't. I don't understand.
17:34
I think the umpires would, would say, "Yeah, I mean, I don't wanna, I don't want my call," most of them, except for Angel Hernandez. But I think most of them would say, "Yeah, I don't wanna, I don't wanna miss a call."
17:42
It's hard to umpire. I, I umpired when I was in college. It's really tough. You miscall.
17:47
And, and those guys are professional for the most part, and I think they would a- they would agree that, uh, having a challenge systems, uh, would, would be a good idea, Gil.
17:55
We gotta get over this umpire lobby, really, for the, for the sake of the sport. My God. Uh, okay, we have baseball beginning in just over a half hour. It is Patriot's Day in Boston.
18:05
It is a yearly tradition, of course annual tradition in Boston. They're running the Boston Marathon right now. And then the Red Sox play at 11:00 AM Eastern. It happens to be against the Guardians this morning.
18:15
Do you have any play in this game? I like, you know who I like? And you're not gonna like this. I like Boston.
18:20
I think this, uh, Cutter Crawford, he's one of the most interesting guys to me in the game because he lead-- he doesn't lead with his cutter, but he uses a percentage of, high percentage of pitches with a cutter.
18:31
His name is Cutter, and I think his, I think he's really shown that he's got some, some ability, uh, in Major League Baseball And I think we lost Marc Borchard 79 percentile, hard hit for nine- nine- 90th percentile.
18:48
And, uh, you know, so I've got the same price, minus 170, Gil. I'm gonna go with Boston here in this game. Okay. Uh, because our, uh, connection is a little janky, let's get the rest of your picks today.
19:00
Yeah, I like the, uh, I like the, uh, two team parlay with the Dodgers and the Rays. I've got those at plus 113.
19:08
Glasnow, I think, is gonna come into his own, and it's priced in the market at minus one- minus 333, a big price, but I, I think it should be priced more. I think it should be minus 435.
19:19
And then the Rays I've got priced, uh, at minus 280. So I, I think that that's a good opportunity to put teams in a parlay, get plus money. And, uh, the other te- the other team that I like, Gil, is, is Minnesota today.
19:31
I've got Minnesota at plus 140 as a dog. Minnesota plus 140 as a dog. That's another straight bet for you, Minnesota? That's a, that's a straight bet.
19:41
You know, Minnesota's an interesting team because if you look, uh, I do an expected standings on my website, and if you look at their, uh, weighted runs created plus, they are third-worst in baseball, only in front of the White Sox and the Marlins at 78 weighted runs created plus.
19:57
Uh, but their xFIP minus is towards the top. They are third in xFIP minus. So it, it's a, it's a really weird situation. I think their bats are gonna wake up a little bit.
20:07
You know, the one stat that I thought was interesting looking at relief pitching, K minus BB, was the Twins, and they're, they're kind of been disappointing admittedly, 'cause I have them to win the, uh, the AL Central and they're, they're look- you know, in the standings they look bad.
20:24
But if you look at this K minus BB for the relief, they are number one in baseball, and I think that's a scary stat if you're, if you're betting Cleveland or Chic- or whoever you're betting a- in that, in that division because Duran's on, uh, you know, he's on the injured list, and he's arguably the best closer in baseball.
20:41
So, uh, their bullpen's really performed well so far. So I like them, uh, getting plus 140 today, Gil. All right, Twinkies plus 140 at, uh, Orioles Park at Camden Yards later today.
20:51
Had you, uh, we only have a couple minutes here, Marc, less than 90 seconds, any awards, uh, that you've either bet into here, or is there someone you've got your eye on that you are thinking about betting in any award market?
21:05
Yeah. I, I'm, I'm really pumped up about Freddy Peralta. He's been, he's been tremendous. He's got the best base winner ERA outside of Shane Bieber, and Shane Bieber's, uh, you know, not pitching anymore.
21:17
But 1.66 base winner ERA, uh, he's got great control, he's got great strikeout percentage, and, and for me, that's a, that's a guy that I, I don't know what he is in the market right now, but, uh, I mean, I- if he pitches like this, he's gonna win it, Gil.
21:33
Eight to one on Freddy Peralta. Is that long enough for you? Book it, man. Yeah, I think that's a good price. This, this guy, he's ha- he's shown really no flaws to date. Okay.
21:43
And the what, the other thing, the other thing too is the Brewers are kind of a feel-good story, right? And so I think that, I think that kind of plays into the market, you know, uh, subjectively, if you will.
21:53
Yeah, since you bring that up, let's w- 'cause we talked about the, the teams that had the most wins.
21:57
If I take the Dodgers and Yankees out, 'cause those are too easy, um, of the remaining teams that were either with 11 or 10 wins, so we're talking Pirates, Guardians, Royals, and Brewers, which is the most sustainable?
22:12
I think the Brewers. I'm c- by my numbers, 'cause I'm really high on the Brewers. Uh, you look at their implied win percentage, it's best in baseball right now, 663.
22:21
Uh, they're pitching good, they're fielding good, they're hitting good. All those things are nice and, and I li- I like them long term as well, Gil. All right, Marc. Appreciate it, man.
22:28
Marc Borchard at Base Winner, basewinner.com, and of course, Bet US, his Bet US show each and every do- uh, each and every day. Thank you, Marc. Thanks, Gil. Marc Borchard, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
22:40
We'll come back, NBA playoff series. We'll start with the East, we'll go to the West, and your final day PSA as well in the NBA. That's next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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22:59
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23:07
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23:16
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23:27
Uh, let, let one fly. Uh, we get tweets at Betting The Book, always appreciate the feedback. YoWorthy311, "Hey, does, uh, SGA have a chance to win MVP since they're the one seed?
23:36
Make a case and one more push for Wemby Defensive Player of the Year. I got him at 50 to 1." Uh, we'll get to the SGA and Wemby talk when we do our straw poll results that Kelly and Dustin did- We should... with, uh...
23:47
We should? Should have a chance. Oh, we should have a chance. [laughs] Yeah, I don't think so.
23:51
Dgen Southern Gent, "I keep hearing people say, uh, with all the injuries popping up, stay away from betting Cy Young futures, but I hear that and it just makes me wanna bet long shots off to a hot start, so it feels like a war of attrition at this point.
24:04
Your thoughts?" Yeah, that's a strategy. For sure. Um, got a better shot at it in a year where, uh, people are falling left and right, that's for sure. Um, gotta have real conviction on someone though, obviously.
24:15
LasVegas514, "Yo, someone said the next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing. I had the decision even money in the Gaethje-Holloway fight. Worst bad beat ever." Wait, wait. Say again.
24:27
He had decision? He had a decision. Oh, no. No. It's like, you, you called it not only the worst beat you've, you've seen in fighting- I was-... but the worst beat you've ever seen? Oh, no, no, I, oh, I did not say that.
24:38
It was a really bad beat if you had- Okay... Holloway by decision. I can't- Horrible... I can't believe, I know you were watching.
24:43
I can't believe you missed, that was the best part, that was maybe the best part of the weekend Well, no, I didn't know there was two seconds left in the fight when he did it. Yeah, yeah. So he was second.
24:51
So- So it was, Holloway had it won. Okay? This was- I, I saw the stats. He was killing him. He was killing Gaethje. Yeah. He broke his nose, poked his eyes. The guy couldn't see, he couldn't breathe, nothing.
25:00
He was beating the crap out of him. Um- [laughs] He goes, "Cut to the middle." It, it... Gil, there is... It was one of the coolest things I've ever seen in sports. I'm sorry. I know.
25:08
Th- this is where Matt Brown was all over the place this weekend. He said, "Everybody calm down. It wasn't even one of the best finishes in UFC." And then he said, uh, Scotty Scheffler might be better than Tiger Woods.
25:17
[laughs] I don't really know. That dude was on one this weekend. So- And then he said to me, he goes, "I've been really into this for 35 years." I'm like, "I think I got you beat there, Matt."
25:23
[laughs] Hol- Holloway has this thing in the bag, Gil. Yeah. But it's the BMF title. You don't go to the cards, right? That's right. So he's up. He would've won this going away.
25:32
There's, like, 12 seconds left on the clock. He goes to the middle of the dang octagon and says, "Meet me right here, Gaethje. Come right here." Goes in, they just start trading wildly, and Holloway connects.
25:45
Gaethje goes down. I didn't know if he, the guy was gonna get back up. Ah. Sorry. It was scary, man. It was g- it was the best moment of the weekend. Sorry about that, Las Vegas 514. Two seconds left? That was brutal.
25:54
All I could think immediately was that was one of the coolest, coolest endings I've ever seen in a UFC fight, and then God bless anybody that on Holloway by decision. Mikey Stacks has a Kelly Bidlin rap song.
26:05
Kelly Bidlin, way better than fair to middlin'. This man is so skilled, fading the public, it's like he's fiddlin'. Producer number nine always shows up on time. It's a WPGC hit. It's a little DMV knowledge right there.
26:15
Uh, DMIL3219- Wow... any comments on Borchardt's new hairdo? [laughs] That's a good point. By the way, there's tons of tweets we gotta get to, but we gotta get to the NBA.
26:23
I just wanna say my PSA- Was, was that actually new? Or I- It was spiky, is what it was. Okay. I noticed it too. I, I thought it was maybe the lighting or location or something.
26:29
I was like, "Uh, I don't know if I should say anything." Okay, uh, real quick, 'cause we talked about this last week with the, with the last day of the NBA season.
26:36
There were opportunities Friday as it turned out, and I hate myself for not having, for not taking, you know, exploiting them.
26:42
But yesterday was one of these days where it's like you tried to figure out Saturday when you went through, "Okay, who needs to do what? Who might have some motivation?"
26:48
And there was a couple theories out there that I saw. Someone was like, "Oh, Memphis money line against Denver because Denver could decide to strategically dump the game if Minnesota's beating Phoenix."
26:59
I'm like, "Nah, that's not gonna happen. That's not gonna happen." Well, they were weird with their injury report. Yeah. I was like, "Okay." Denver had a bunch of people listed questionable for a long time.
27:05
The bigger one was everyone was like, "Oh, Magic money line minus 190 against Milwaukee because Milwaukee will be heavily incentivized to lose, uh, because then it would likely ensure them a match up with Orlando in a four or five," which is obviously the softest in theory of the potential draws.
27:20
Also, Orlando's highly motivated to win 'cause they could fall all the way to eight if they lost. There was all these theories about that. Well, yeah, Orlando was highly motivated. Why, why would Milwaukee wanna lose?
27:30
Well, 'cause it, if the theory was if they could end up with a four or five against Orlando if they lose- Yeah... that game. So I immediately said, I'm like, "Okay, wait a minute. First of all,
27:42
that's, uh, that's not, uh..." The, the question asked is, c- first of all, four or five would mean that you'd have to play the Celtics in the second round, so maybe you don't like it from that perspective.
27:49
The other one is there's a scenario where Philly- Yeah, you want-... gets to six, so you going to two, you'd be avoiding Philly anyway. Why would you bother?
27:58
Yeah, y- and you wanna ke- uh, like, like Will was texting me about this, but I think you wanna keep the Celtics as far away as possible. Yeah. I didn't buy into any of that, so I was like, "I'm not doing anything."
28:07
What we never anticipated was that Cleveland, the only really interesting thing that happened yesterday, was the Cavaliers kind of tanked it at the end. Yeah, yeah. So the Cavaliers- They should be in NBA jail...
28:17
all [laughs] they are NBA jail. Because all they needed to know was, was Milwaukee losing, and when they saw Milwaukee was losing, they didn't have to worry about anything else. At that point, they were like, "Okay."
28:30
So they ended up in crunch time, quote-unquote, against the Hornets. They played Bates, Mobley, not the right Mobley, Thompson, Jones, and Nance against, like, a two G Leaguer Hornets team and lost. Yeah.
28:43
And that ensured them the match up with the Magic. So they were the team that actually ended up tanking, if you will. Yeah. And I'm just, uh, the PSA again is, 'cause we brought this up last week, is
28:54
you can't figure this stuff out. Yeah, but I, I mean, I think that was the only one of the- It was the only one... that was the only one of besides of the brain dead money line parlays that you could have put in.
29:03
That was the only big favorite that lost. Right, but that'll kill your parlays. Yeah. I mean, and by the way, the parlays, even if you put six of them in, like, it was only, like, a one-to-one payout anyway.
29:12
Oh, sure, sure. Yeah. So it wasn't worth the, uh, the, the risk of one of these teams doing that, and that's what happened. One did. So, so I did a couple of them.
29:20
I didn't include the Cavs because I, I think the Cavs with Mitchell out, I think they were, they were kind of signaling- So you dodged it... kind of signaling a little bit.
29:26
You're right, I dodged it, but, but it is, but you're- The PSA stands... yeah, the PSA stands- Yeah... 'cause you couldn't go, you couldn't go super heavy when I was laying, like, minus 130 on, like, a five-team parlay.
29:37
Uh, East, play in real quick before the playoffs. Any, any shot or any play that you like in either of the two play-in games?
29:43
Yeah, I'm gonna guess you can, you can guess the bet that I made already in the Eastern Conference. Uh, I'm gonna, I'm gonna guess it right now.
29:49
[laughs] The guess is that you, sir, by the way, the East is the second day. The East is on Wednesday, not tomorrow. Yeah. Uh, you took, oh, you took the Hawks plus the points. No, I didn't. I didn't. Oh.
29:59
I didn't, but I would lean that way on- Oh, then you took the Heats, Heat plus the points. No, I did not. Oh, so your teams- I was the opposite. The Sixers. Oh, okay. I laid it against the Heat. All right.
30:06
I laid it against the Heat. This is a new Kelly Bidlin. Yeah, yeah, it is. Uh, but, uh, it, I, I laid it, uh, with the Sixers. Um, I mean, this is big, kind of big question mark with Joel Embiid.
30:14
I did play, what did I play? Three of these, uh, play-in games already. I'm just double checking that. I did play, no, I played two of them, then I played one of the first round games.
30:24
Um, they're all light for me though. I think these play-in game, these play-in match-ups are pretty interesting. I laid four and a half. I said anything below five I was gonna lay with the Sixers.
30:32
But, you know, it can't go too heavy with that 'cause you're kind of a little questionable on what Joel Embiid's true health status is or how, you know.
30:40
He's looked great since he got back from injury, but then he, you know, he got banged up on Friday night, didn't play in that game yesterday, so you're a little bit questionable. You have to be, uh, on where he's at.
30:51
Uh, but I did l- I laid four and a half with that one. I would lean Atlanta with the other one, but that game is so gross. Neither team, neither one of those teams deserve to even be in the playoffs.
30:59
[laughs] I, I don't have much on that one. Okay, let's get to the series real quick.
31:03
Um, obviously two of them are not determined yet, but of the two that are determined, um, you have the f- let's start with the four or five that we just talked about between the Cavaliers and the Magic. Yeah
31:14
As gross as it gets As- It's gonna be one of the lowest... the opposite of the Western Conference is what this series is. The, [laughs] as we warned last week, right? Yes. This could be so one of the worst Eastern...
31:22
Hey, actually, I think s- I think things shook out pretty well for the Eastern Conference playoff, Gil, so it do- it didn't hit the point of, "Oh, God." As good as it could've gotten? Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
31:33
'Cause first round you could have, you could have, like, Celtics-Heat, and you could have Knicks-76ers after the play-in, right?
31:40
But Magic-Cavs, I don't have much, I don't have much on this from a desire-to-watch or a betting perspective. Cavs, by the way, -195 on the series price to Magic, +165 at DraftKings.
31:51
I mean, Donovan Mitchell just still has not looked exactly like the same player since he's returned from injury. I think the Magic are scrappy enough to make this a series. Um, I just don't see.
32:01
I, I would need more than +165 to jump on board with them, though. There's a lot. It's gonna be an interesting series. A lot of pressure on Jamahl Mosley, who had a great regular season, to coach this team.
32:11
You got the bigs on the Cavs. You got a great player in Donovan Mitchell, but they, but Orlando's got Suggs. They've got the, the, they've got the perimeter defenders to give Donovan Mitchell a problem.
32:21
It's all, I think it's gonna come down to big time to what Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner can do, uh, on the offensive side of the ball to keep... Keep, they gotta score. The Magic gotta score to keep up with this.
32:30
And then, [clears throat] pardon me, the 3-6 is the Bucs and the Pacers. The Pacers, I don't wanna say owned the Bucs, but they got the best of them, most famously in the play-in tournament.
32:40
Um, not the play-in tournament, but the in-season tournament, I should say.
32:43
But they won three out of four from the Bucs, and now we have a report on Giannis from Shams, where he's saying it's not a done deal that, uh, Giannis is playing in game one here. Yeah. What was the, uh, in real doubt.
32:54
In real doubt. His status is in real doubt for game one. Bucs are -245 in the series. Pacers +195. Remember, these are best of sevens. It's the opposite of the baseball problem.
33:03
There's too many games for these first rounds.
33:05
[laughs] I mean, this one's gonna be exciting to wa- I, I mean, I hope, I hope Giannis is ba- I hope Giannis is back and healthy for this playoff run so at least we get some entertaining playoffs, because I think the Bucs can do that if Giannis is healthy.
33:20
I can't bet, I can't bet this, though, without knowing Giannis. If you wanna, if you wanna go with the Pacers, I think you could make a solid case.
33:25
They have been playing better recently, but they're still not that same team we saw in November and December. I'm glad we can find the yeast of the small pockets, as you, you... Not as much to bet as, yeah.
33:32
I got a lot more to say about the Magic. West a lot more interesting. Uh, we'll come back. A little hockey break with J. Kahn and more basketball. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:41
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:58
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34:07
New customers bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. That's code V-S-I-N, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book.
34:18
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody, truly. Best listeners in the game, Kelly. Uh, JoeC714, "Hey, Gil, we've had, uh, HawkEye in tennis for years.
34:28
Can't they implement something like that in baseball and be very accurate?" Yes, they can. That's the actual name of it? HawkEye, yeah. HawkEye. HawkEye changed tennis forever, Kelly.
34:38
Like, you remember how McEnroe- Yeah... all that stuff, and Nastase and Connors? I didn't know there was a name. HawkEye. HawkEye, yeah. I like that. Is that what the bees were attacking?
34:47
It, it just made the sport so much... I'm sorry, what? Is that what the bees were attacking at Indian Wells? Uh... Was it the HawkEye system? I think they were attacking humans as well.
34:55
[laughs] I don't know what they were attacking, but they were attacking. Bruce b- Bruce Dobigan, "Friend is working on ABS system in MLB. He says the challenge system is the last hurdle, but thinks it's a go next year."
35:04
Okay. Steven Vegas, "We've seen this type of dominance in golf once before.
35:08
Learning from history, the only thing that can stop Scheffler right now would be a [laughs] okay, a Perkins waitress, an adult star, a poorly placed tree, and a baseball bat on Thanksgiving.
35:17
Hopefully it doesn't come to that." [laughs] Okay. Really, I should probably vet these before I read them.
35:22
Uh, Ben McGovern, "Went to a Las Vegas Aviators game this weekend and saw the new replay system for balls and strikes. It works exactly like the tennis system. It worked great, and it should be at the MLB level ASAP."
35:33
Holy Buckeye. In 1974, yeah, I'm old, Johnny Miller won eight times, completely dominated. So there you go, there's a, there's a comp for Scheffler besides Tiger. Johnny Miller in 1974.
35:45
I mean, yeah, I hear that Jack Nicklaus fella was pretty good, too. Mark Decard, "I found my leak, Gilly, and it is me." [laughs] Hey, man, at least you- At least he admits it. That's right...
35:57
you gotta be honest with yourself.
35:59
[laughs] Uh, Jack Larkin from Sporttrade is showing me the graph of, of, uh, Scottie's endgame, and it did get, at one point it got to four to one for a blip on Saturday, but that was it.
36:10
Other than that, it was right around even money, plus and minus, uh, for most of that tournament. Bill Hooker, "I assume there's a, uh, mandatory retirement age for MLB umpires.
36:20
Why wouldn't MLB tell the union, 'We're paying Angel Hernandez full salary until age whatever, plus a go-away bonus, and he's done'"? Lot of Angel Hernandez tweets, by the way.
36:31
Good friend Shillionaire, "Good morning, guys. Random thought here. I have two young boys to, uh, w- with my wife, so my wife and I will be covered when our kids are old enough.
36:40
However, what do people without children do when their cell phones, uh, with their cell phones when they become janky?" [laughs] You laughed over the punchline. [laughs] Sorry, I was reading ahead. I laughed too hard.
36:52
What do, what do people do with their cell phones when they become janky? That- It's a technical term, I know... I brought that up 24 hours after I first saw that commercial.
36:59
I saw, all it took me was seeing it four times before I was like, "This is the most annoying thing I've ever seen." [laughs] That's great. And finally, uh, there's, there's plenty more, but I wanna get to Jake.
37:07
Jonathan Lindemeyer, "Were you at Proper Eats at Aria Saturday morning, Gil? I was sitting, uh, near the bar working on my baseball model for the day, and you or someone with your glasses and haircut walked by.
37:17
I enjoy the show and podcast, and I appreciate the baseball talk in the spring."
37:21
I'm there a lot, but I was not there Saturday morning, so that's interesting He had one of his, uh, stunt doubles do it That's right, that's what I do. I was like, "Go, go to RN, fake him out."
37:31
Ladies and gentlemen, I don't know if you know this, but with basketball in, uh, playoff mode here, or play-in mode more accurately, and then playoff mode, hockey is doing the same. Ha. Biters.
37:42
NHL has a few more days left in the regular season. We do have one playoff series established, though. Jake Hahn joins us now, uh, to discuss not only that, but a full day of hockey, uh, today.
37:53
He's the co-host of the Point Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL. You can follow him on Twitter @JHahn4 courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Jake? Yeah, happy playoff week, guys.
38:03
I would say the, uh, as somebody that loves golf so much, I, I know Kelly's in the same boat as well, I get a little bit of, uh, post-Masters depression when the tournament's over. You put so much into it, then it ends.
38:14
You wake up on Monday, you gotta go back to work. But I think the best cure for that is, for me, Stanley Cup Playoffs, which start on Saturday.
38:21
I know you guys are, are more of a NBA guys, but hey, I love the NBA playoffs as well. So, a, a great cure for me to wake up today and know that, that's on the slate this week.
38:29
On- only golf question, did you have Scheffler or not? I didn't, but I, I used [laughs]...
38:35
The, the fact that I figured he was gonna win, I, I mean, I guess I could just bet the guy at his, at his number at the end of the day.
38:40
But I didn't do as many outrights for the Masters this year, just with the whole Scottie factor, and went with more of a, a placings angle, and actually did quite well, uh, with the placings.
38:48
So, hey, congrats to anybody that, uh, you know, uh, backed up the, the Brinks truck and, and put a big number down on Scottie. The guy is unbelievable. Um, I do have q- you know, quick thoughts on, on RBC Heritage.
38:58
I know we're a few days away. Um, maybe people are, are too banged over the head with golf. But we do feel like Scheffler probably withdraws from this tournament. Yes. Uh, right, Kelly?
39:07
I don't know if you have any thoughts on this. But to maybe jump in on some numbers that you like now before that happens, uh, Cam Davis, Tom Kim, Harris English, uh, maybe Shane Lowry.
39:17
A few names that stand out to me that if you want to, uh, race to try to grab a, a big number before, uh, Scottie withdraws. It's a great point.
39:24
I was literally just checking last break to see who had odds posted in town, because yes, Scheffler will be at the top of the board. I, I would think so, I would think so, Jake, but I don't, it's Scottie Scheffler.
39:33
Come for the hockey, stay for the golf. That's right. Jake Hahn, everybody. Well done. Um, okay, before we get to tonight's games, what about this one, we, we do have one playoff series that is established.
39:44
Uh, it is in the Western Conference. Uh, nothing can change regarding Winnipeg and Colorado, uh, 'cause they're gonna be two-three in the Central Division.
39:54
Colorado a slight, what is it, -135 favorite on the series price at DraftKings. Do you like anything there? Yeah, and there's still home ice advantage technically to be decided in this matchup.
40:06
And, and I will say there's certain matchups where, okay, yeah, of course you always want home ice advantage, but I think it matters more i- in other seri- situations, and in this one, I, to me, it really does.
40:15
Home ice advantage is going to be crucial this week for these teams trying to lock, lock it up. Now, Winnipeg has the inside track here. They just basically have to take care of their business and it would be theirs.
40:24
But to keep that extra home game away from Colorado, who is fantastic at ball arena, you don't wanna go to altitude if you don't have to.
40:31
So if you can avoid that if you're Winnipeg, I think that gives them a, a bit of an edge in this series. And, uh, Colorado's backing into the playoffs a little bit here, guys. We know what they're capable of.
40:40
We know their high-end talent, but they may have a little bit of a depth issue when they go up against a deeper team like a Winnipeg or a Dallas if they do make it through this series and have to face the Stars in the second round.
40:50
That looks like maybe the deepest team in the entire National Hockey League.
40:54
So I think in terms of, uh, you know, a long-term look on Colorado, I'm a little bit worried about their depth going into, into this, uh, these playoffs.
41:01
And right now I'd, I'd have to lean towards Winnipeg just, uh, with that plus money price and the fact that it looks like they should have home ice advantage. Yeah.
41:08
No, that's the, that's the whole point of it right there.
41:10
So again, for, for those who are, who have the inkling to bet Colorado, do not until you certainly know home ice, and even then, then it's probably accurately priced.
41:19
Uh, right now Winnipeg is Jake's thought at +115, knowing that they quite possibly and maybe probably will have the home, home ice in that series. Okay.
41:27
Tonight, um, full, I don't know if it's a full slate, but it is a hefty slate of hockey. Again, only four days left in the regular season before the playoffs begin. What do you like today, Jake?
41:38
Well, we still have some teams battling for those playoff spots, right? The Islanders have a shot to, to lock up a spot tonight in New Jersey against the Devils.
41:46
So you do have to lay chalk on the road with the Islanders, but I mean, all the motivation is there for them, and that can be tricky.
41:51
You guys know that this time of year in really any sport where you get one team that's playing for everything that, you know, playoff spot on the line, you get another team that's season is over in New Jersey that does have some high-end talent, those can be dangerous teams sometimes, where you're just playing loose and you don't have any sort of pressure.
42:07
I still do trust the Islanders to get this done on the road, though. So I'll lay the, the, the slight favorite price there, uh, with the Islanders. Similar situation, uh, in Pittsburgh tonight as well.
42:16
Penguins, uh, they can't lock up a spot tonight, but they, it's an absolute must-win at this time of the year for the Penguins if they have any shot of making the playoffs.
42:24
They get a Nashville team that's now clinched their playoff spot. They are fighting for seeding, first wild card, second wild card, which should matter. You get a bit of an easier matchup in that first wild card.
42:33
But Pens, everything to play for. Again, short favorite. I, I like the Penguins to, to get it done with the motivation angle tonight. Okay.
42:41
Um, in our final 90 seconds, if someone's landing on hockey right now, Jake, and you know someone is, if they said, "Okay, I wanna make either a bet to win the Stanley Cup, or I wanna make a bet to win the East or the West," what is your favorite bet?
42:54
Give me, give me two. The bet that you would absolutely make if you could only make one, or give me the top two if you could add in a long shot value play as well.
43:03
I think the best value on the board now, guys, it's fluctuated a lot this year. It's actually been fascinating to follow. I don't know how many different teams have been the favorite at one point this year.
43:11
I think it's Carolina right now as we stand. They're on a five-game win streak and, and looking pretty good, but it just, it keeps moving. It, it keeps flip-flopping back and forth.
43:19
I think the best value, and I, I'm seeing this team down around 25 to one in some places right now, is actually the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team that won 11 straight playoff rounds, uh, just a couple years ago.
43:29
Uh, I like Tampa Bay at that number. I think the Atlantic Division side of the bracket i- is wide open. In terms of the teams under 10 to one, uh, I do like the New York Rangers. I, I...
43:38
Carolina's getting a lot of love for good reason, but the Rangers, with a win tonight, and I think they get it against the Ottawa Senators, they get home ice advantage throughout the playoffs.
43:46
They win the President's Trophy, and you're getting them around nine. Maybe if you c- you can find a 10 to one out there.
43:52
Uh, Rangers would be probably my favorite play from the top of the board right now based on a, a bit of a dip in their odds. Rangers nine to one at DraftKings. That-- You like that, nine to one.
44:01
Yeah, I, out, out of the favorites, I think that's the best number right now, especially with the fact that if they win tonight, they lock up home ice advantage throughout, uh, throughout the playoffs. Okay.
44:11
Not mentioned the Vegas Golden Knights in any of that right there. Just wanna point that out for all the Vegas folk.
44:15
Jake is like-- Jake's got that, that shake and that smile of like, "No, there's really-" I wasn't wrong in last year. They won the Cup, so... Yeah. [laughs] Jake Hahn, everybody, @jakehahn for SiriusXM NHL.
44:27
Thank you, Jake. Coming back, NBA Western Conference in our straw poll next. The 82-game preseason is in the books, and it's finally time for the real season.
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46:03
If you didn't catch Sharp Money, here's what you missed. Six titles for UConn in the last 25 years. Just an awesome performance.
46:11
And as soon as that game started, the backcourt of Purdue, while they try, Smith and company, they're the little engine that could. [laughs] They cannot hang with somebody like Stefan Castle and the rest of the crew.
46:23
Castle's gonna be a top five pick c- in this forthcoming draft, the freshman. They, they just can't hang. And we talked about the neutralization from Clingan and Eady. That didn't matter.
46:34
You and I were talking about it early on the pr- earlier on the telephone. It, it was very clear what Dan Hurley had in mind. He can hit threes. They can get out in transition.
46:44
Eady can just get those twos, get the bunny. I don't care if he gets 40 points. He had 37. He had 37, Dustin, and the rest of Purdue had 23. That's not gonna beat many teams like UConn.
46:56
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See everything VSiN has to offer on the NBA at vsin.com/nba. That's vsin.com/nba. So, Paulie, have you had a chance to read the VSiN Daily yet? Yeah, came in at 3 AM. What's Bill doing up that late?
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A Numbers Game
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