Search
Login
Sign Up
Apr 15, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 15, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | April 15, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:36
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander with my little buddy Kelly Biblin, everybody. Hey.
0:19
Losing, losing weight before our eyes. You doing good? You, you feel good? Feeling good. Looking good, too. Oh, thanks, buddy. That's all that matters. What ma- what it matters if I feel good?
0:28
Remember, it's better to- As long as I look good... it's better to look good than to feel good.
0:32
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, we will, uh, we will get into some, uh, baseball best records and worst records a little later on the hour, but we gotta bring in a gentleman, uh, 'cause we have much to talk about with him.
0:43
He is the co-host of not one but two podcasts, The Deep Dive, which he does with his buddy Andy Molitor, Dincic Classic, as we like to call it, and then of course, uh, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher, which now features a daily podcast each and every morning, which is why we have him in hour number two now, not hour number one.
1:00
It's Drew Dincic, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @whale_capper. How you doing, Drew? It's going well. Um, the, uh- [laughs] That's contemplative. Yeah. Nice...
1:12
well, you know, I mean, like, uh, last two weekends, uh, Florida, big national championship. Didn't have any skin on that, so I was kinda, "Eh, whatever." And then, uh, yeah, Rory, big Masters. And while
1:25
it, I, I'm conflicted on that one because, like, watching it was obviously, it was so big for sports in general. It was great for the sport of golf.
1:34
Um, but I was against him, so it's like I, you know, I, I didn't, uh, ultimately have any, uh, positive, uh, financial outcome there. And so you're just like, "Oh, this is great. Great. Wonderful."
1:45
Like two, two time, two, two big sporting events in a row that, yeah, I'm kind of on the sidelines for and just have to, uh, you know, find some, some, uh, reason to care about them.
1:53
But, uh, but the Masters, I, I, you know, I gotta say, that, that Sunday rollercoaster ride with Rory was absolutely wild. Uh- It was unbelievable... um, yeah. Yeah.
2:01
Can, can, do you wanna briefly say, we'll move on from the Masters, but do you wanna briefly tell folks, uh, about the Calcutta, how that went for you? Uh, I mean, there's not much to say. Broke even.
2:10
[laughs] Broke even. Okay. Involved a lot of money- Had some, had-... and a lot of money. Yes. Yeah. Yes. And broke even. That's a, a lot, a lot in, a lot back, and ultimately, uh, nothing happens. Okay.
2:22
So, um, there was a moment though when, uh, we had a, a good percentage of the pot coming back to us- Oh... and then, uh, uh, Luka Oberg, uh, decided to, uh- [laughs]...
2:32
play the 18th hole rec golf style, and I think he puked something like 70K worth of equity- Oh... uh, back into the Patrick Reed bucket as, at the same time, Patrick Reed dunks it on 17. Yeah.
2:44
And Oberg ejects, and it was just like a f- straight one-to-one transfer of all of the profit we had in the pot. So that was lovely. Uh, since we're country clubbing, let's move to tennis for a second. Mm-hmm.
2:55
I was just mentioning to, uh, folks, um, there are signs now that the earth is returning to its axis here on clay. [laughs] You have a, it's going the same way for you. Do you have anything left today?
3:06
Ooh, I don't think I do. Let me take a look. Oh, yeah, of course I do. Uh, I'm against, uh, Skamnore. Uh, Hatchanov plays amazing tennis at Barcelona. Uh, I have him 2-0, uh, and I laid the games against Skamnore. Okay.
3:20
There you go. Drew loves a fate of Skamnore, the author of- [laughs]... the nickname Skamnore. Uh, I still have Gracheva to go today. That's my only favorite, uh, today, but it's, it, it, it's looking good on Clay.
3:31
Clay to the rescue. Uh, to the NFL draft.
3:35
You have not fired away here, and we were just talking off air, 'cause I noticed it this morning too, and I started to bet some, uh, in a faraway place, or just, it appeared on Bookmaker, but, uh, nothing too enticing, right, for you?
3:49
Yeah, I mean, like e- even if I knew I had the nuts in terms of information this year, the, um, the throttle is, uh, is really, really tight, right?
4:00
Like let's say I knew with pure certainty that, uh, some guy was gonna go fifth, right? And his over-under is five and a half, and it's like, okay, well, uh, I can get 200 a click, and it's already minus 250.
4:17
[laughs] It really- So it's like- It's really not that exciting. I get it... all right, so for, for 10 days I'm gonna lock up, uh, you know, what, $50,000 to win 10. You know?
4:29
It's, it's, it's tough, it's tough to really kind of, um, uh, to go that hard, uh, uh, at this point with the fact that number one, a lot of the information is still very, very soft.
4:41
Um, and, uh, you know, the liquidity is just very, very thin. Um, so it's, uh, it's, it's really, um, probably gonna be a very last minute thing if anything at all this year.
4:51
And, uh, I remember last year it was, you know, it's gotten gradually- Yes... less, uh, you know, less, um, uh, you know, lower and lower liquidity year over year.
5:01
Um, so this trend has been coming for a while, so it's not surprising, and I'm not gonna be bellyaching about it because as I look at the board today and I look at the NBA bets I have, there's plenty for me to bet on.
5:11
[laughs] So nobody needs to shed a tear that I'm not getting action here. Yeah. Well, let's- Um, but, uh-... let's get to that. Let's get to that. [laughs] Because, because there is plenty- But yeah, no...
5:19
there's plenty of ways to- This time, this time next week though, let's revisit it- Okay... 'cause, you know, we, we could have, we could, we, limits go up a week of, surely. So we'll, there, there might be some stuff.
5:27
Kelly, if I had a dime for every time you've said to me, "What am I gonna do? Bet 50,000 just to win 10,000?" I'd be so rich. It's insane. It's just a daily problem. Yeah. You know how, you know how it goes.
5:37
Well- Drew, I just wanna go back. You said that the top of the board being pretty soft. Uh, where, where do you think, how many guys do you think are 80% plus locked in?
5:46
Do you have, uh, is there more than Cam Ward at that point? Uh, yeah. Hunter and Carter are two and three I would say almost certainly. You've got- Like people- Okay, so, so Hunter two.
5:56
I guess- You have Carter to the Giants for sure? Oh yeah. Ab- almost certainly. So this- Uh, the, the people, people- So this Shedeur Sanders working out with the Giants is just a smokescreen No.
6:07
They know that he could... His price went from 3rd to, like, 30th. 30th. So now he, he's back in play for them with their second pick, which is why they're doing their homework. Uh, almost certainly.
6:16
Like, this is not a we're not ch- we, we're changing our mind about pick three. This is a maybe we flip-flop and we go up to 31, 32 with the, the Eagles, and we go take Shedeur there, right?
6:28
I think the Browns are thinking that, I think the Giants are thinking that, and I think they should. Because, you know, ultimately, um, both of those situations, both of those quarterback rooms are atrocious.
6:39
And, uh, Sanders at least is, uh, you know, is an, is a, is an upside possibility. Al- al- you know, I don't have a strong opinion of his, you know, his actual football skill.
6:50
Um, but, uh, because he was playing in a nonsense offense with terrible players around him, but- [laughs]... um, outside of Hunter. But the, um, the...
6:58
You know, b- I- right now in a vacuum, I would put Sanders on the Browns, and I think that the likelihood is Eagles, Browns flip-flop 32, 33 so that they can have potential for a fifth-year option if it works out for them.
7:11
So- Okay, I just want-... that's just my general read, and I think the Giants are probably just thinking the same thing.
7:15
Like, maybe, like, what do we need to do to get above the Browns to take him at the end of round one? It has, I think it has virtually nothing to do with, uh, the Giants potentially taking him at three.
7:24
I just, I just wanna stop it because I, y- y- you come with, with a great sense of confidence, and most listeners, if I'm going to represent them for a second, uh, just need to, to have that re- reinforced one more time.
7:36
So what you're saying is at the top of the draft, you are certain, you, you feel confident that it's Ward, Hunter, and then Carter one, two, three, Carter going to the Giants.
7:47
What you are referring to should, with Shedeur Sanders, v- quite confidently it appears to me, is that he may last all the way to the cusp of the second round. That's what you're saying. Absolutely. Okay.
7:59
You, you- Uh, you want, h- here's, here, here, here are the soft evidentiary points, uh, on that, right? The Saints didn't go to his workout.
8:06
Uh, the, um, uh, the Sanders camp, uh, came out and said, "W- we'll go anywhere."
8:12
W- as opposed to, like, we like, we, we're, we're picking a spot for him, they, they changed their tune to, oh, w- w- whatever is the best, best fit for him is fine, right?
8:20
And then he doesn't get invited to the draft, or he, uh, declines the invitation to the draft knowing that, you know, kind of all of those things I think are, are signs pointing to him, uh, sliding at least until, uh, the mid-20s.
8:33
Um, but I think more realistically he's, uh, he's the early 30s.
8:37
Um, and you know, the big question is, you know, does, does a team like the Browns, do they give up assets to go get him in round one so that they have the fifth-year option, or do they just wait and take him 33?
8:48
My guess is that there's a potential for a flip-flop of 32, 33 with the Eagles because the Eagles, to me at least, seem like a team that h- has... They,
8:57
you know, they would want that 33rd pick so that you can really kind of chew on anyone el- you know. That, that's, that's a pretty high leverage pick for day two of the draft, right? Oh.
9:06
When you get a full, uh, you know, 15 hours to negotiate with every team- Mm-hmm...
9:10
who might want the first pick in round two to go get the guy that slid that they, you know, had, you know, had eyes for, um, is pretty powerful.
9:18
So I could see the Eagles just, and the Browns making that, uh, making that move, uh, f- for best of both parties. So last week, or was it the week before? I can't remember now.
9:27
You were very confident that the Browns were gonna end up with Kirk Cousins. You no longer feel that way? They've, they've signed Joe Flacco again. I don't understand it.
9:37
[laughs] I, I didn't understand the Cousins thing either. It was just that everybody who kind of had an inside track was, um, you know, was pretty high confidence on that.
9:46
And, you know, he was in Cleveland f- at a time of year that you would only be there if you were trying to negotiate your spot as their starting quarterback next year, so. Okay. Uh, yeah.
9:56
It seems like, it seems like whatever, uh, kind of soft deal was in place there either fell apart or, um, just ultimately isn't gonna materialize, and so for that reason they signed Flacco, I suppose.
10:06
But, uh, the Browns still don't have a starting quarterback for next year, and you know, I mean, if, if they go with Pickett or Flacco, that's- Kenny Pickett begs to differ with you. [laughs] He just pulled up the quote.
10:16
He begs to differ with you. [laughs] He's there to start. He's not, he's not going there to hang out- No... Drew. Quote, unquote. Well, there's that. Shots fired at the city of Cleveland. Yeah.
10:28
Uh, real quick before we get to the break, because I wanna do NBA series and your projected prices versus the actual moving forward here. Do you have anything in either of the play-in games tonight or tomorrow? Uh, yes.
10:40
I think all four totals are too low. Uh, round robining the overs. Uh, I laid the chalk tonight with the Magic and the Warriors, and I took the points, or took the dogs tomorrow with Dallas and Miami.
10:53
Um, all of this is relatively, um, recreational money. I don't have any major skin in any of these play-in games because they're a little bit chaotic. And honestly, there's a premium on backing the Warriors at seven.
11:05
Like, you have to really, really work hard to make that a fair price. Um, but, uh, I just, I'm, I'm pretty convinced that they have, um, the tools to put, uh, Jaren Jackson Jr.
11:17
in foul trouble in the second quarter, and then at that point, uh, the, uh, the Grizzlies defense rates as, like, a 30th percentile defense, which means the Warriors can kind of pick their number.
11:27
So laid seven with the, uh, with the good guys. So both favorites tonight, both dogs tomorrow, and round robining all the overs tonight. Or all, all four games, I should say. All four games. All four games, pardon me.
11:40
Yeah, the adjustment to the totals is just outrageous. Yeah. They, those adjusted downward. Okay. Uh, NBA series prices projected and actual.
11:48
Looking for value with Drew next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Unlock your winning edge with an unbeatable offer.
12:03
Get full VSiN Pro access to everything we do from now through August 1st for just $59.
12:09
Sign up now, save 50% off the regular monthly price with a daily email recapping all the best bets for VSiN host and guests, exclusive betting splits from DraftKings and Circa sports books complete with trends and analysis to sharpen your game, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app, plus full vsin.com access featuring advanced analytics and pro betting systems.
12:27
Every sport, every edge, one low price. Don't wait. Get full access through August 1st for just $59 at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
12:40
American Airlines going, uh, free Wi-Fi in 2026 for its loyalty, uh, members. How about that? Oh, boy, they will not stop emailing me. They're, they're a load of those.
12:49
It, it's an interesting, uh, business tactic to be like, "Here's how we will get people to..." It, it might, it might actually be a pretty sound one. Free Wi-Fi for everybody who's in our program. Yeah.
12:59
Come, come with- That is a good one... come with us, all things being equal. Um, Drew Dincic kind enough to join us for an, a second segment here on a Numbers Game to talk NBA with us.
13:08
Uh, Drew joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Again, you can follow him @whale_capper, the Deep Dive Podcast, Bet The Edge Podcast, and Deep Dive... Uh, excuse me, Bet The Edge Dailies. Pardon me.
13:18
Or is it Deep Dive Dailies? Wait a minute. I'm, I'm, well, it's Bet The Edge Dailies. Well, we're doing dailies, doing daily stuff with Da- with Andy- Okay...
13:25
on the Deep Dive feed, and, uh, doing daily, uh, videos with Jay that go on the, uh, NBC, uh, um, just the overall player news feed. Man. Um, and other places. Thanks for making time for us, for God's sakes.
13:36
So there's, so there's- Yeah... in everywhere, yeah. Um, before we get to your projected series prices of the established series- Mm-hmm... NBA awards real quick. Um- Yeah...
13:47
what is your read on Defensive Player of the Year? Uh, ask me again in about four weeks. [laughs] There, this is so exceptionally close, I have no way to call it right now.
14:03
Uh, if you said, "Well, you must make a call," I'm gonna call it Mobley by, like, three or four points.
14:10
Um, I think the, uh, the Draymond support that I was expecting, uh, from TNT, 'cause TNT has 10 votes, which is insane. Wow. Um, but the Draymond support from TNT is gonna come through.
14:23
Um, however, there is an anti-Draymond contingent that just is flat out leaving him off ballot.
14:29
[laughs] And so, um, there are, he's-- It turns out, I don't know if you guys know this, turns out Draymond Green's somewhat of a polarizing figure. What? No. [laughs] Yes. Crazy.
14:41
Um, some people have him one, some people have him apparently not top five. Anyway, um, the, um, the, the Mobley support is weak, but it's there.
14:51
Uh, right now after counting 30 votes so far, I think it's exactly 50/50 in terms of first place votes between those two, but more down ballot for support for Mobley. So I think he's gonna take it.
15:02
There's a lot of support for Dort. There's a lot of support for Dyson. Um, and I think it's gonna, it really is gonna take-- We're gonna have, we're gonna have to count every hanging chad.
15:10
That's a, uh, a reference only Gil would get. But- [laughs]... um, we're, we're counting the hanging chads and, uh, we'll, uh, we'll get back to you in a couple weeks. That's a, that's a Bush-Gore Florida thing, correct?
15:20
Bush-Gore Florida hanging chads. That's right. That's right. [laughs] Uh, by the way, for those who don't know, NFL 50 voters for the awards, NBA 100 votes for each award.
15:30
So, and Drew is tracking these actual, you know, the actual voters. What is- Yeah, super, super soft commentary too. Yeah. There's, like, a biz- like, a really...
15:39
Usually the NBA awards are more pr- a little bit more predictable of what the voting bloc is gonna do broadly, and a little bit more kind of long, like, reflection of the season, you know, type of a vote.
15:51
Really k- "We really wanna reward these teams. We'll find a player to give some, some reward, you know, some credit to."
15:56
Like, that's sort of the tone as opposed to the N- NFL, which tends to have, like, "Oh yeah, I watched this game on Christmas and that guy did great, so he's gonna get my vote," right?
16:05
Like, there's a recency bias that's absolutely absurd in the NFL, and there's a, "Surprise, I was wrong about team, player," whatever, that kind of really influences the NFL voting bloc.
16:15
And usually that does not in, you know, kind of trickle into NBA, but that's not the case this year.
16:19
Um, we have a, just a massive amount of recency from what I'm seeing, uh, from, you know, kind of the early stuff that's out there. So it's, it's gonna be a weird year in the NFL. And what about most improved?
16:28
You're, you're saying that, you were saying off air there, there might be a little anti-Cade Cunningham feel? There's a lot of anti-Cade Cunningham.
16:35
Right now your second choice isn't even Cade, it's, it's, it's Zubac came out of the clouds- No... because he had an amazing last week of the season. That's what I'm talking about, the recency bias stuff.
16:43
Like, like, when this market was last open, I think you had to request Zubac to be listed.
16:50
Um, and now, like, he's, uh, you know, second choice behind, uh, D- Dyson Daniels for a lot of, uh, uh, lot of voting ballots that I've seen.
16:58
And what's weird about that is that, like, neither of these guys fit the typical, prototypical mold, which is first time All-Star.
17:04
So, you know, all, all, all of the rules are being broken from what I'm seeing so far in the, uh, uh, in the MI, in the, uh, in the award voting.
17:11
Like, even MVP, there's a lot of people that are just like, "Ah, I'm just gonna go Jokic." And it's like, o- over the guy who has comparable advanced stats on a team that won 18 more games? Excuse me? Right?
17:24
Like, like, or like that defies all logic. I, uh, I'm really shocked. Okay. To the series prices, so the series that have already been established, the three sixes and four fives.
17:35
Um, Knicks four dollar favorite over the Pistons. Pacers right around $2. Lakers right around $2 over the T'Wolves. Pacers obviously against the Bucks.
17:45
And then the Clippers Nuggets has moved to a virtual coin flip after the Nuggets opened as a sizable favorite against the Clippers. Which is the one of the four where your numbers shows the most difference to the actual?
18:01
Uh, it's Clippers-Nuggets. Um, that was the worst opener I've seen in a series price in a long time. Yeah. Um, Nuggets could still win.
18:09
Like, I don't wanna sound overconfident in this, and no one should be going and running out and making a bet based on hearing me talk about this by any stretch of the imagination.
18:17
Um, but, uh, the idea that this is a fair price with the Nuggets favored even currently is, is very, very hard for me to square numerically. Um- By the way, let me just interject... the pro- 'cause we- Yeah. Sure...
18:28
'cause we're showing -135 at DraftKings. I'm staring at a -110, -110 offshore right now. Yeah. I, yeah. E- even that, even that's no, even that's not, not correct in my opinion. I, I have- Oh...
18:39
the Clippers as -158 in the series price. Um- Wow... and it's not even really hard to kind of talk out, like, uh, yeah, we could go a lot of different directions, but here's the problem with the, the Nuggets.
18:51
They have to, they have to play a sixth and a seventh and maybe even an eighth player in this series. All of those options are absolutely poison for them. Um, you can't get away with 48 minutes from your five guys.
19:03
It's just not possible. Um, and even if you did to get away with 48 minutes from your five guys, you still have a defense that is barely better than average.
19:11
Um, the playoff rotation defense that you're getting from this, uh, Clippers team is just out- absolutely outstanding.
19:17
Um, the fact that you could have, uh, Kawhi, Zubac, uh, and Chris Dunn on the floor at the same time is gonna make life absolute hell for, uh, Aaron Gordon in particular.
19:27
Uh, I think they have the right personnel also to turn Jokic into more of a three-point shooter and less of his kind of master facilitator role, which brings out the worst of the Nuggets offensively.
19:36
Uh, and I think even more than just betting series price here for the Clippers, I like some of the exotics.
19:42
I did take a huge bet on the series a- on its own, just because they have a better coach, they have more pieces, they have more combinations.
19:50
Even if they do lose the two first games in Denver, the idea of them being able to adjust, uh, and come up with the right combinations to take advantage of the weaknesses is real.
19:59
Um, opposite is true for this Nuggets team. Um, if they lose one or both of their first two home games, this is like f- you know, this is sweep potential because they just don't have anything that they can do.
20:11
Like, there's no one sitting in the, in the film room who's like, "What if we give Julian Strawther more of a, a, more of a role or responsibility?" [laughs] No. No.
20:18
Like, they, like, there's no answers, uh, to, uh, what you have in terms of personnel on this team that, uh, reasonably puts you in a, uh, competitive series if you drop either of your first two games.
20:29
So I think there's a real world where the Clippers just run this one.
20:32
And, um, honestly, as I'm looking over my shoulder with a big old Oklahoma City to win the West ticket, um, my, my Clippers-Thunder series price is spooky. Like, it's, that's gonna be a series.
20:45
Um, so, uh, feeling a little, um, little bullish on the Clippers in general, and, uh, uh, that, that one I c- I'm still kind of surprised that they gave us plus money prices to get down on Clippers series. Yeah.
20:58
Uh, Thunder-Clippers a potential second round series, uh, in the Western Conference. So, um, besides the Clippers series price- Mm-hmm...
21:07
which I assumed you bet then, uh, strongly, were there any other of the 3645 series bets that you made in any of the game ones in any of those match-ups for Saturday? Uh, the, I'm, I'm a Bucks supporter as well.
21:24
I'm pretty heavy into the Bucks in this series. Um, my fare for this one, if Damian Lillard plays zero minutes the entire series, my fare is Indiana -119.
21:34
Uh, so I like the Bucks series price regardless, and I think it has one directional upside where, surprise, Damian Lillard's playing game one and he's fine.
21:45
Um, and so I think Bucks game one, Bucks series is, uh, is a good play. Um, and, uh, n- not exactly sure why there's so much support for the Pacers, if we're being honest. Interesting.
21:57
And, and any of the game ones then on Saturday? Have you played any of those games? Um, I have, w- well, uh, Lakers, I mean, s- yeah, the Lakers and Minnesota game is a, uh, or series is a tough one.
22:10
I don't think that the series is fair, but I, uh, did not play the Timberwolves in that one.
22:14
Um, I'm waiting for some exotics t- to pop up, and I'm probably gonna play Timberwolves -1.5 games because realistically, if they win that one, they're winning it in six, and I don't see them coming back and winning it in seven.
22:24
Um, and, uh, yeah, for the game ones, Clippers to win outright, I make them small favorites in Denver. Uh, and um, uh, Bucks to win outright, I make that one a pick. Drew, beautiful. Well done. Appreciate it, man.
22:38
Thanks for making the time. Best of luck, you guys. Enjoy the playoffs. You too. Man's got a busy schedule. Thrilled that he makes time for us. There was an earthquake yesterday too. Oh, we should've asked about that.
22:49
And by we, I mean me. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Edge Boost is the first ever bank account built for bettors ensuring all gambling transactions are approved. No usage fees, no minimums.
23:03
Earn cash back rewards, 100% approval for all betting deposits. Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANJ. A-N-G as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet.
23:17
Uh, Kelly Midlan over here to my left, ladies and gentlemen, often makes, uh, some fine points, uh, both on air and then sometimes off air he'll say some stuff.
23:26
And, uh, you pointed out something which I thought was interesting about the, uh, the series price between the Clippers and the Nuggets, which is the one that has moved the most, right? Mm-hmm.
23:36
So it's, it's like a 50 cent move in some spots, right? Based on d- depending on where you're looking. But I'm, I'm staring at a coin flip, right? And it was north of -160 in some spots to begin with. Yep. Um, yet
23:52
what is it that you noticed, sir? Uh, I'm gonna use, I'm trying to use... Okay, I'm gonna use the Westgate in this to, as an example. Westgate has the series price currently at -110 on each side. Mm-hmm.
24:05
Clippers and Nuggets. They opened Nuggets -140 Game one line, open three, Nuggets three has remained Nuggets three That is quite interesting. Yeah.
24:20
Now, now, I, it's, w- w- th- they opened a little later than some of the other books. Mm-hmm.
24:23
Like, I mean, I know there's people, I don't know exactly what price Drew g- Drew got, but I know there's people that got Clippers plus 160 I think is as high as I heard. I got plus 130 when I was able to jump on it.
24:34
Um, but man, that, that is... I, I've kind of been thinking a- that as every seemingly 12 hours that series price continues to tick down, that game one line ain't moving. I do agree with Drew.
24:47
That's one of the worst opener series prices we've seen in a long time. It's ca- it's... I, I mean, I'll kind of echo what he said. I obviously, I have got a lot of Thunder tickets, too.
24:56
If, if they were on the other side of the bracket, Gil, I mean, I'm load, I'm loaded up on Clippers for- Yeah... for this series.
25:03
If they were on the other side of the bracket, though, I, I think the Clippers would be the, they would be that ride or die team for me this playoff.
25:10
So if I'm gonna, they're either gonna win me a lot of money or lose me a lot of money, 'cause I think I'm going to be off, off where the, uh, pricing's at for almost every matchup they have.
25:20
But they, i- and kind of what he said about the Thunder, I have a feeling that I'm gonna see a little bit of value in the Clippers when that series rolls around, and there's nothing I'm gonna be able to do about it.
25:28
That's a, that is a epic. I- if all you NBA hardos are right about the Clippers, that's an epic second round series between the Thunder and the Clippers. I, I think it's potentially Western Conference finals.
25:39
Like, that's the, the two, I think it's potentially the two best teams in the West. Um, and by the way, conversely to what you're saying, same applies for the Warriors. If they were in the harder side of the bracket,
25:50
I wouldn't be nearly as bullish on them. Right. Yes. Right? Same, same exact thing. By the way, that, that, uh, that Clippers,
25:56
oh, that Clippers-Thunder potential second round matchup is sort of akin i- I don't know, we'll, we'll talk to Jake Hahn about this, we'll talk to, um, Mike Somich about this tomorrow, but I believe there's a potential first round series in the NHL.
26:12
What is it, the, uh, the Stars and the, uh, the Avalanche? You have, I believe you have two of the three, um, sort of short shots to win it all who are meeting, who might meet in the first round of the NHL playoffs.
26:25
Oh, really? Yeah. God, NHL- So-... NHL playoffs are great.
26:29
Well, the NHL used to do this, the NHL used to just seed them one through eight in each conference, and then they switched the format to divisional stuff because the, the object was to make the first round series that much more awesome.
26:45
But now they've gotten to the point where they're so awesome that they're gonna knock out one of the favorites. So I don't know if, like, in the end, is, is, do they achieve what they wanted? Yes. Yeah.
26:54
But you, you know, you get this early round series where one Goliath team is donezo. We, we also had, we had a couple people pointing this out on Twitter.
27:03
So the, the Southeastern conf- uh, division winner in the NBA, [laughs] they're all, all the, tho- those teams are stuck in the play-in tournament because they're not doing that in the NBA anymore either.
27:13
You're not, the division winner doesn't get anything, you know, get anything locked in with the standings. So that's why you've got three of those teams in the play-in. Yeah.
27:21
What, and what was it, the Magic- Magic, yeah... Magic are the first team to win a division with a losing record in forever. Yeah, it sure is. Yeah, that sounds right. The NBA, it's fantastic.
27:32
The, um, did you get around to talking Rockets', uh, Rockets-Warriors pricing with him? No, I never got around to that. Okay. So I, actually- No...
27:39
he and I were texting about this yesterday because I heard, um, I believe that Mitch and JVT, JVT was filling in off all the money, and I think they had Jeff Sherman on to talk a, a series price for that,
27:51
uh, projected 175 for the Warriors in that. I- Projec- projected what now? Minus 175 for the Warriors in that matchup. That's what Drew projects that? No, no, no. That's what, that is what Jeff Sherman had.
28:03
I texted Drew, what did he think, and he had minus 150. I had, like, minus 140 was my guess. Yeah, minus 170 sounds way high.
28:12
That sounds high, but, like, it is gonna be one of those ma- like, Warriors are gonna be favored. I'm a Warriors, I know they're gonna be favored.
28:18
I'm a Warriors guy and maybe an anti, you know, Rockets guy to an extent, but even I would say that's ridiculous. Yeah, that, and that's still high.
28:26
Because those two have, because the, the anti-Rockets thing is a little overblown. I mean, like, they are the number two seed. They're pretty good. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. That youth thing can only mean so much at some point.
28:38
I, I think the Warriors should be favored, but not by that much. Um, we get tweets that beat in the book. Martel J, "Just witnessed egregious tipping practice at TGI Fridays.
28:46
Small biscuit breakfast sandwich, 9.99, tap card, and there's options for 10, 20, and other percentages. The 0% was covered by a thank you sticker forcing a tip. I knew zero was there. Guy was pissed."
28:59
[sighs] That's for the crack show. But I, I've, I've seen that before where the zero was covered. Yeah. Jim, Jim Shogren, "Thought you would like this. I had Oberg over Day last round at minus 130.
29:09
He's up five strokes after 16. Three putt 17 for bogey and scuffs it around 18 for a seven, and Dave birdies it and I get a push. Rory's win took the sting out of this though." Well, good for you if you had that. Brutal.
29:21
Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of those, a lot of those stories w- with Oberg and, uh, Shane Lowry. Uh, some ugly, ugly finishes for those two. All right. MLB, uh, this is a Steve Fezzik special.
29:33
He loves this, he loves these kinds of markets and everything that's derivative of these markets.
29:37
But this is, this goes to our thing about the, the ever-increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots in Major League Baseball through the years.
29:44
Fewest regular season wins, you can bet this at, uh, multiple shops, but here are the DraftKings numbers. We are not even one-eighth of the way through the Major League Baseball season. [laughs] We are not.
29:55
But you can still bet on this. Rockies minus 155. The Rockies after last night are three and 13. The White Sox minus 105. Marlins eight to one, everybody else 25 to one or longer.
30:08
By the way, I would just cross out everybody 25 to one or longer, although there are some people Who think that the Pirates might be live So, okay I'm not one of them That was one that I wanted to bring up 'cause this, this, I, I, I kind of seized on this yesterday when you guys were, you and Paul Sporar were talking about the Rockies and just how bad and are they clearly the worst team.
30:29
And man, I remember a lot of people bring that up about the Pirates and I'm like, and we are very, very, very short, short into the season and you'd get 28 to one on that team?
30:38
I- But you still think it's those top three and that's it? Pirates are six and 11. Um, I do. I, I, I think it's the Rockies. I, I think it's properly priced. I don't think there's a bet here.
30:50
By the way, the White Sox are four and 11, not that they're all great. Um, but the Rockies, we talked about a l- we talked a little bit about this yesterday with, uh, with Borchrd.
30:59
And again, I am surprised that the Dodgers are only, quote-unquote, "in the minus 300 ranges" on, on some of these games against the Rockies, although tonight, not really that surprised. But the Rockies are, th- their,
31:12
their b- their run differential right now is on pace to be the worst in the history of baseball. And again, we're not even an eighth of the way through the season.
31:21
I know how the on pace thing works, but they just are at this point. They've scored 43 runs, I believe it is. 43 runs. Two of those games account for 19 of those runs.
31:37
They have, their offense is so bad, they have the worst whiff rate in all of baseball. They have the fewest batted balls in all of baseball.
31:47
I, I could go on, but it, they, they are showing that they could be epically bad. So the Rockies to me are, are cur- are properly priced, and I think that's right.
31:57
As much as people wanna wedge in, and it's betting, right? So I get 28 to one, eight minus 155, so there's a, there's a case to be made for that number, but I'm not betting it.
32:06
I, I, I'll just g- I'm gonna bring up one other team. White Sox. If we had the same conversation three weeks ago, right? Wouldn't we, a lot of our baseball guys would be, "Oh, hammer that White Sox 105."
32:17
No, uh, they would say, I think the most baseball guys would say Rockies, White Sox, Marlins. It's one of those three teams. I don't think anybody ever- Okay... wavered off that, that it was one of those three.
32:26
Marlins have shown to be a little more pesky than those other two so far. As far as most regular season wins, I'm not even gonna, I'm just gonna remove myself from this and go back to Mark Borchrd several segments ago.
32:37
Mark Borchrd said by his projected standings that the NL West is so good that the Dodgers, for his numbers, finish fourth. Now, I'm not saying that's gonna happen, but what I am saying is that might lead to a bet here.
32:51
Because Padres 12 to one, Diamondbacks, I'm, I guarantee you if we put this in front of Mark, he'd say Diamondbacks- Yeah... 20 to one.
33:00
Yeah, I mean, he was high on them preseason and high, remains high on them, so yeah- Yeah... 20 to one.
33:04
So I, I feel like there's more of a bet here than there is in the worst regular season wins, the least regular season wins. You know what, you know what my favorite part was of typing up both of these graphics? Hmm.
33:13
Is that there is a team, I have listed eight teams on most re- on fewest and most, uh, wins. One team is on both. Braves. The Braves. [laughs] Yeah. I noticed that. And I don't think they're gonna win either. Oh, man.
33:25
Yeah. It's interesting, though. All these things, very bettable, except here in Nevada, but we live in a world where this is bettable, which I like. Uh, we'll come back, we'll wrap things up. All of our bets on the show.
33:37
That's after the break, right here on The Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
33:40
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Uh, back on The Numbers Game, live at Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Kelly just discovered a restaurant, uh, in Vegas, and Ortega in his ear goes, "Uh, it's been here 20 years."
34:05
[laughs] I didn't know there was like a, there was like a fancy medieval times here at the Luxor. That's where I, 'cause I, I d- Excalibur. Thank you, Savannah. This is the Tournament of Kings.
34:17
I would love to observe you going to that. Are you kidding me? I would die to go to this. Would you, do you immediately go into the language and you're like, "Good morrow, everybody"? Of course you do.
34:25
[laughs] I w- I want some ale. What, what is it, what's the cup called? What, you know, whatever. Let us feast. That kind of thing? Y- yeah, exactly. No utensils.
34:34
You just get chicken or what- I mean, that's how it was in medieval times back in the day. You should, you should just auction off the Kelly Bidlin experience, and people can just tail you for a day.
34:42
And by tail, I don't mean your bets, I just mean, like, follow you. [laughs] You would go to some of the most random places in Las Vegas that you'd never expect.
34:49
It's time for our G Bank Best Bets of the Day, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSIN. I'm all over the place. I have one remaining tennis bet today. This is in Rouen. I believe that's how you pronounce it.
34:59
Rouen, Rouen? I don't know. France. Uh, Varvara Gracheva, she is French, uh, versus Sone Kartal. She is British, I believe. Uh, Gracheva is the play at minus 125. You might even be able to get a couple pennies better.
35:13
Um, as things, the tide is turning in clay. Looking forward to, uh, to continuing here with the picks. By the way, because these, b- because we're only in Germany and France on the ladies' side, and in Germany and
35:29
Spain on the men's side, these aren't gonna, there's not gonna be a lot of these on the show just because of the time zones. But again, subscribers, vsin.com/picks will get all these. Warriors- Stuttgart.
35:40
Stuttgart, yeah. I do have Iga Swiatek to win Stuttgart. We gave that out yesterday. Um, she has won that tournament twice already. She's going for her third.
35:48
Warriors tonight, dub show, minus the points, courtesy of Carl Sack yesterday on the show. I jumped on it. Warriors minus seven tonight against the Grizzlies.
35:56
And then in the NFL draft, in addition to my, uh, my, uh, Hunter to go second at minus 135, which has, uh, massive CLV at this point, I added for much less, it should be pointed out. That's by far my biggest bet.
36:11
But for much less, total first round running backs under two and a half, minus 186, to Drew's point that what you like... really has a lot of juice, and so these aren't really that exciting.
36:23
Tyler Warren over nine and a half in terms of his draft position, minus 258, I did bet that. Aston Genti over nine and a half draft position, plus 165.
36:33
I just can't imagine that the Raiders are actually gonna pick him sixth. Y'all gonna really do that?
36:41
Um, by the way, just like I can't imagine that a third running back will go in the first round, I could be wrong about both. Yeah.
36:46
And then the last one, uh, which is what I started with today is, I have Matthew Golden as the first wide receiver selected at plus 140, the speedster.
36:54
Um, I personally would draft Tetairoa McMillan over him 100 times out of 100, but according to Max, Golden at plus 140 represents value, so I bet it. What do you got?
37:04
Well, what I got is a real quick, uh, real quick review of Tournament of Kings, and it doesn't look that much better than Medieval Times.
37:11
[laughs] So someone, someone tweet at me and let me know if it is, 'cause that's the only way I'm going, is if it's the Vegas notch up of, uh, Medieval Times. Uh, okay, for bets, Warriors, uh, laying six and a half.
37:21
I'm with you guys tonight. Uh, didn't go... I- it's not big. It's, it's... Yes, I think Drew broke it down well. I think the matchups give Warriors more of an advantage.
37:30
The number, I don't have priced that much more than where it's at now, though. So I, I think six and a half, seven, I'm in on it. It's not huge.
37:37
Tomorrow, Heat-Bulls under 220, uh, for me, and then I am Pacers game one and for the series price.
37:46
I think it was interesting hearing from Drew on what he thinks is gonna happen with Dame, 'cause I have heard very, very different things.
37:51
Uh, when- Drew does come in here with confidence on everything he says, doesn't he? Yeah, and that which- He's like, "Dame is playing," and that's it... we love. Yeah, we love. Yeah.
37:57
But there i- I, I have heard from people that I respect, Damian Lillard, he, he, you will definitely see him and you will definitely not see him. So I- Hmm... I'm interested to see where that, uh, that lands.
38:06
To his point, though, I think that does, that does only move the series price one way, uh, uh, with Dame coming back. Uh, Clippers, I'm all over Clippers plus 130 series price.
38:15
I will play, I'm gonna l- dive into some of those other derivative, uh, markets today.
38:20
Um, I think I'm gonna play the 4-2 exact outcome in that one, uh, Clippers 4-2 over the Nuggets, also looking to laying a game and a half. Will Hill will join us tomorrow.
38:30
I think he has some exact outcomes in some of his NBA series. Yeah, I gotta, I gotta dive into that stuff a little bit more.
38:36
Yesterday I was able to spend a little bit more time making notes, but now I gotta, gotta do the betting, you know? Actually make the bets. The actual bets themselves. Yeah. Yeah. Gotta press submit. Uh, baseball.
38:45
Joe Peta, not, uh, on the show, but kind enough once again to deliver his baseball plays to us. He is on the Mariners minus 114 against the Reds today. He is on the Nationals, Washington Nationals plus 120.
38:59
Nationals at Pittsburgh today. He's on the Blue Jays minus 107. Blue Jays hosting the Braves. You can get that a little better, I think, couple, at least few pennies better today. And then the Mets minus 112.
39:11
They're at Minnesota. All from Joe Peta, kind enough to, uh, provide his baseball picks.
39:17
Mark Borchardt, not to be outdone, has, uh, baseball parlays on the Diamondbacks and the Phillies, a parlay that plays plus 160, that pays plus 160. Didn't he have a straight?
39:26
Didn't I goad him into a straight bet as well? No, I don't know. [laughs] Did you? Yes, I believe I did. I can't remember it offhand, but we'll have to, uh, we'll have to review the tape. [laughs] I'll, I'll text Mark.
39:35
It will be on vsin.com. I believe my exact words were, "Are you just gonna give us parlays for the rest of the year?" [laughs] I remember you asking that. Yeah. So he, he, he conceded.
39:43
Uh, Drew Dincic, who was just with us, Drew has a bevy of picks. Uh, first of all, today and tomorrow he is on the, we'll just do this in one, he's, he's on a, a round robin of all four overs- Yes...
39:57
in the seven-eights and the nine-tens tonight and tomorrow in the NBA.
40:01
Then he is on both favorites tonight in the NBA, uh, the Warriors and the Magic, as pictured right here, and he is on both dogs tomorrow, the Mavericks and the Heat.
40:12
So from the top there, you'll see that represented, all of the overs in all of those respective games, and then the two favorites tonight, the two dogs tomorrow.
40:20
Uh, a- and guys, just keep it right here 'cause I screwed up graphics a little bit.
40:23
He is on Clippers, Clippers series price, and then what you're seeing if you're watching at home, that is the game price for w- for game one. He is on the money line there.
40:33
Um, and then he is also on the Bucks series price and Bucks money line. So they are similar, but I did w- I wanted to make sure that wasn't gonna get thrown out.
40:39
So Bucks series and Bucks game one, and Clippers series and Clippers game one. Correct. Both money line for game one. Gotcha. Gotcha. Um, and I believe that wraps it up for us, does it? Yep. Yep.
40:49
Those are our G Bank official best bets of the day. Every show, every host, every guest, every sport recapped, uh, at the end courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
40:58
And don't forget, uh, G Bank upping the ante once again, uh, with up to a $750 bonus for new G Bank Visa Signature Card customers.
41:06
First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
41:13
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank.
41:26
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Um, in the afterglow of the Masters, did you make any PGA Championship bets? No. Do you have any? No. No. No, I did not.
41:39
Um, I think that odds board's a little rid- And so this is where... Uh, I'm glad you asked this. I wanna, I wanna circle back to Medieval Times, though. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Sure.
41:47
Um, Masters, I think it's great to add bets as you lead up, as you- If you're handicapping golf throughout the beginning of the season, I think you can start to see some value appear on certain golfers.
41:57
I thought that odds board that we put up yesterday was absolutely ridiculous. You had two guys at five to one and then, like s- eight other guys that are sub-20 to one right now.
42:05
I ch- There's nobody I could consider betting right now. Yes, I think Rory McIlroy has a ton of success at Quail Hollow. That would be the only thing I'd be even considering betting, but, uh, nothing for me right now.
42:16
I'll, I'll wait till we get closer. I'm looking up at, at one offshore book, and I see Scotty posted. Yeah. Oh, that'll explain it. It's the RBC Heritage this week. [laughs] It's not the PGA, so that will explain it.
42:28
Uh, about the RBC Heritage, we'll talk about that more tomorrow. Yes. Scottie is the short shot, right around five to one, uh, give or take a few pennies. Then it's Morikawa, the only other player who's in single digits.
42:40
Where are you on Morikawa right now? Love him. Yeah, I, look, look, Collin, Collin made me good money last year. Um, think you just gotta be careful betting outrights on him.
42:49
I, I think that's where he's at, and I think I'm staying away. And look, became, it became this way with Xander Schauffele for a long time until last year.
42:58
I, I need to see it again before I, I, before I get back on Morikawa outrights.
43:02
I, I, look, I, where he rates out is so high for me, I will have no problem going back to top 10s, uh, match-ups, that type of stuff with Morikawa. But outrights right now are not something I'm interested in betting.
43:12
Wow, you gotta shop around for these. We're showing the DraftKings numbers on the RBC Heritage. Scottie Scheffler plus 360, Morikawa in double digits, 11 to one, just ahead of Xander and Ludvig. Um- Ludvig took money.
43:24
Dang it. I was looking at him at, like, 16 to one the other day. You thought about it, didn't do it? Yeah. I mean, eh, do you remember Cable Guy? Did you ever see Cable Guy? Sure.
43:32
I mean, so, like, the, I, like, yes, I wanna go to Medieval Times. It's a good experience just to go, but I really want the, like, how do I rent that thing out just so I can fight someone?
43:42
Like, that guy right out there, I wanna fight Matt Brown, like, with swords and, like, chain mail or something. That's the experience I want. You gotta be, there's, everything's for sale in this town.
43:51
I gotta believe I could buy that experience somewhere. Oh, I'm sure you could. Yeah. I'm gonna make that happen. And you're gonna charge tickets for, to you and Matt Brown and do a duel?
43:59
No, you guys can all come for free. Everybody's invited for free. Wow. 'Cause I'm assuming I have to rent the entire arena or something probably, so. We're totally going.
44:06
You, you really, you, you've made a point to wedge that in there, and you got it in there. Welcome. Yeah, I ki- I, I would say joust is what I'd like to do, but I can't ride- It'll be a joust...
44:14
I can't ride a horse, so that, that seems problematic. [laughs] You gonna learn 'cause you gotta joust. Uh, speaking of Matt Brown, he is next. Stormy in today? I believe Stormy's off today, I believe. Is that the case?
44:24
Uh, Matt Brown hosting Money Moves. I see her. Oh, Stormy's here too. Stormy hosting Money Moves with Matt Brown, coming up on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
