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Apr 16, 2024
A Numbers Game | April 16, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 16, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So are those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate it however you're taking us in this morning. It's a numbers game. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedlam.
0:21
What's up? Producer number nine. What's up? So much more than a producer. Live from bar cannon at The D, struggling with apps in Nevada, just getting a bet in right before the show. Well done. [laughs] Thanks, man.
0:31
It ties in perfectly. Let me tell you something about the MGM app. Can we just talk about the MGM app? Oh, it's always an experience in itself.
0:36
Used, used to be a proud sponsor of the show, and I hope one day they'll be a proud sponsor of the show again. But I'll tell you this.
0:41
That app, oh my God, I have to delete it completely from my phone now and re-upload it to make a wager. Yeah, it's silly. I don't know what's going on with that one recently. Okay. All right. But I, I mean,
0:54
we could go on and on. We could go on. None of, none of them are perfect. [laughs] That'll be a, that'll be a theme throughout. Uh, we got a lot to get to, uh, on the show.
1:00
Not only NBA playoffs, uh, with Judensick and the NFL draft with Judensick coming up. Uh, we have added our own NFL draft bets, which we'll get to here momentarily. Uh, it's pretty much draft and NBA focus today.
1:13
Though, uh, we gotta update that Guardians bet, if you know what I mean. Looking pretty good here in the middle of April. Don't wanna get too ahead of ourselves. Uh, but we'll go through that.
1:21
We've got a whole bunch to get to. Um, let me just really start though, again, with vsin.com/picks. Every host on this network, every guest, any sport, they're all at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
1:37
And when it comes to tennis, as you know, when we were doing hard court season, most of it, or much of it, was here in the United States, so I could give out the plays on the show before they actually happened.
1:49
Um, but now that most of the clay court tournaments, not most, all, are in Europe, some of the matches are going to start before the show, some are gonna happen during the show, some are gonna be after.
1:59
Uh, we hit a plus 210 dog overnight on João Fonseca against Lorenzo Sonego. Um, hope everybody got in on that. We do have two ladies matches that have yet to begin.
2:11
Uh, the Egyptian Mayar Sherif will begin the match sometime during the show against Yuan Yue, who is a player that, uh, a Chinese player who we played a lot on hard courts and won with.
2:23
But now on this surface, Sherif is the clay court specialist. It, it's not Yuan's favorite. We got Sherif at plus 110, but here's the deal, she is now in minus money, and this has moved about thirty cents.
2:35
So I'm not-- Depending on where you can find it, uh, if you can play it anywhere below, or minus 110 or below, maybe a couple pennies above that, I would play it. But if it's minus 120 or minus 125, I would not play it.
2:48
And then Jelena Ostapenko, a little later on, got in really short plus money. She's about minus 120, but same thing applies to her.
2:55
If you can get her at, like, minus 110 or below, I would play it on Jelena Ostapenko going up against Linda Nosková. So, uh, the clay court numbers at, at, the hard court season was spectacular.
3:07
We're back up to twenty-six units up, so clay has been sort of spinning the wheels. But we got back to our season high with the Fonseca win overnight.
3:15
Hopefully, the clay court numbers that are now manifesting on the men's side will manifest on the women's side. I have no reason to believe that it won't, but we shall see here with Sherif and Ostapenko. All right.
3:25
NFL draft, Kelly. Yeah. Let's put it this way. I made a conservative bet early. Yesterday, I made the sort of friskier bets. Ooh.
3:34
And I plan on making more conservative bets starting today, so that if my frisky bets just turn out to be crap, then I can still turn a profit. Okay. So first bet I made was at Stations.
3:47
And by the way, shout out to Stations here in town. They were the first book to put up NFL draft props. They did it weeks, plural, ago. They take a bet beyond what others take.
3:59
Um, Caesars and Circa have capped your bets to this point. Stations does not. I made the bet on the Jaguars picking a cornerback in the first round. Picking a cornerback with their first pick, in other words. Cornerback.
4:13
Um, every mock draft, literally one hundred percent of mock drafts that I've seen, have the Jaguars taking one cornerback or another with their pick at seventeen. Could trades bust that up? Sure.
4:29
Trades are the problem with the frisky bets that I made yesterday, which are revolved around two things that are conventional wisdom, mock draft wisdom, um, you know, consensus right now, unlikely to happen.
4:45
So what I did is I have stuck with the Jim Harbaugh. I believe that I need to draft a offensive lineman as a cornerstone of a franchise theme, and I bet Joe Alt to be the number five pick in the draft at plus four fifty.
5:01
Now, I've contended here, ever since we've talked about this, that Harbaugh has said this, and that while he is praising J.J. McCarthy, um, ultimately, if they keep the pick, they will go offensive line.
5:15
Now, most folks have Joe Alt going to the Titans at seven. If a trade happens with the Chargers out of five, I'm screwed right on that one immediately right off the bat. That's why he's plus four fifty.
5:27
But I'm gonna go with that. I'm gonna go with Jim Harbaugh's thoughts, and I took Alt, the number five pick at plus four fifty. I took Rome Odunze as the sixth pick at plus three twenty-five.
5:38
This was a Chris Felica-focused thought, where he, uh, he said he had some intel, uh, that the Giants are really focused on Rome Odunze at number six. [clears throat] So Those are the frisky bets.
5:51
And by the way, then I went to Circa. Circa released theirs yesterday. They have Rome Odunze, uh, draft position under eight and a half. I actually have a worse number that I got yesterday that is available right now.
6:02
I got that at minus 170. The hope being that he either goes to the Giants at six or someone, uh, decides to pick him prior to the, uh, the number eight pick, either who's there already or will do so via trade.
6:14
Um, so those are, again, the, the Jaguars is the conservative bet. The Alt and Odunze plays are the more risky ones.
6:23
And then I believe what my strategy will be here today or tomorrow, Kelly, is that position of Jaguars bet, I may add more to it.
6:30
By the way, I was allowed to bet more on that [laughs] than the, than the, uh, less conservative ones. And I have my eyes focused on a couple other things, uh, specifically Dallas Turner at number eight to Atlanta.
6:45
Um, some variation. I don't know what prop is gonna be best in town, but I'll, I'll sort of do a cross-check for every book that... By the way, we have six books that are offering NFL drafts. Circa joined yesterday.
6:57
Stations was the first. Um, so some, some combination of, of adding to the Jaguars cornerback, Dallas Turner going at eight. B- bets focused around that.
7:08
And, um, one more that I'm gonna ask you about later, 'cause it's a, a deeper dive. I like it. Yeah, the, uh, Dallas Turner bet, I made that, uh, last, end of last week, I believe.
7:19
So n- uh, number eight pick for him, plus 320 I was able to get on that.
7:24
Seeing as Circa here, though, Circa, they, they posted a ton of player draft positions, which is awesome, 'cause you're not getting these almost anywhere else. Yeah. Um, I think what I would play there, I...
7:36
So I play, I played him number eight at plus 320, and then a top 10 pick at minus 115. But I'm looking right here, uh, and they've got him under nine and a half at plus money.
7:46
So at plus 160, under nine and a half, uh, on Dallas Turner. So that's probably a good bet. I might be adding a little bit more to that position. Um, okay, I've got, yeah, early bets I made, Marvin Harrison Jr.
7:59
to the Cardinals, not fourth overall pick, but to the Cardinals, 'cause that was one of the first markets up. Grabbed that minus 170.
8:06
You and I will be going a little bit head-to-head on that number five pick, 'cause I do have Malik Nabers there. Uh, but, you know- And we both could be wrong. We, we both could be wrong. Yeah.
8:12
You and I were texting about this yesterday. Like, I think there's, I think it's very possible that you're talking about the, you know, three, four, five all looking to b- to trade out, right?
8:23
And if, and- Patriots, Cardinals, Chargers... and if that happens, and I think that's the macro thing that I wanna say about this draft.
8:29
I think we all have a sense that Caleb Williams is going one, and, uh, probably Jayden Daniels at two. Some people think Drake May. Whatever. I wish I would've bet it. I wish I would've bet Daniels at two.
8:38
I think he's going two. But I think the, the trouble begins, right, right after that, and then sort of to, of, for lack of a better word, re-solidifies afterwards. I, I agree. Yeah. And I think that those, the, that,
8:52
the reason that I'm getting the plus, the big plus money on the Alts and the Odunze is because it's so confusing there, and no one really knows. Mm-hmm.
8:59
No one has any sense of what's gonna happen, and those trades will blow up everything. Yeah. Um- I, I'm with you, though.
9:04
I mean, on five, if it, if the, if it's still the Chargers, it's, it, it's wide receiver or offensive line. Gotta be. Like, I, I do think that. So I think one of us is winning [laughs] probably. Well, yeah.
9:15
Unless, of course, then they go Odunze, and then, and then we both circled around it and none of us want it. Yeah. I don't- I, yeah, I still think it's Nabers ahead of Odunze, but who knows?
9:25
Uh, there's so many good wide receivers in this, in this draft class. Actually, I just- Think about this... I just added, I added over six and a half wide receivers this morning at plus 190 in the first round.
9:33
Oh, you did? Yeah. Okay. Almost two to one. That, that number's worth it for me, uh, for me to bet. I think there's a ton that... E- every, you're talking about mocks.
9:40
I feel like every mock I see, end of first round, there's a new wide receiver in there from someone that I haven't seen in any other mock draft. Like, it's just incredible.
9:48
Like, the, I, I saw yesterday, like, the, the second kid on Washington being thrown in there at the, at the end of the first round. There's, like, multiple t- multiple college teams that got two wide receivers going.
9:58
It's incredible. Um- And, and for those who have just landed on this show for the first time, it's sort of like [clears throat] with my bets, I, I sort of, uh, hearkening back to the old anti-drug campaign commercial.
10:07
Uh, baseball is my brain. Tennis is my brain on crack. And this is, the NFL draft is some other kind of drug. Right. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah, totally. [laughs] Absolutely.
10:15
Um, yeah, the only other things I bet then, I just grabbed those, uh, those quarterback bets as soon as they were posted here in town.
10:21
So over, I wish I would've hammered the over a lot heavier than I did, uh, at even money, 'cause that's way high, uh, way high now. Um, and then- Spoiler alert, this is what I'm gonna ask you about later. Okay.
10:31
And then under, under four and a half at plus money, so I've got a little, a little free roll on that one. Dallas Turner, eighth I said already, plus 320, top 10 pick, minus 115.
10:40
And then this morning added over six and a half wide receivers plus 190. And Keon Coleman, my guy, under 46 and a half right here at Circa on a draft position.
10:49
Keon Coleman, who, unbeknownst to him, was playing exhibition football all of last year. [laughs] That's, that's, that's right. Um, C.J. Stroud has chimed in on those, this is true, C.J.
10:58
Stroud has chimed in on those who are considering drafting his ex-teammate, Marvin Harrison Jr., and who are supposedly wavering on whether or not to do that, or considering other options. Uh, the C.J.
11:12
Stroud quote this morning was, "Don't be dumb." [laughs] He's like, "You got-" Basically he's like, "You gotta be kidding me." I kind of- "Draft him."
11:19
I kind of feel, like, I was never that guy, Gil, like, for the past two years that was like, "Whoa, Marvin Harrison Jr., he's the greatest thing on planet Earth."
11:26
But, like, I'm just, I'm believing those kind of comments. But that's how- You know what I mean? Like- That's how I feel about Odunze.
11:32
Like, every time you watched him, were you, was there any thought other than this guy is awesome? You know, no, no, I'm saying I didn't have that necessarily- Yeah... when I watched Marvin Harrison. Right.
11:41
But I'm listening to people that are like, "Don't be an idiot. He's the clear-cut number one." Trust in the evaluators, yeah. Drew Dincic's got thoughts. NBA and NFL next
11:58
VSiN, the sports betting network Start your morning with a daily dose of winning strategies, insider tips, and the latest buzz with the free VSiN daily newsletter.
12:06
In today's newsletter The NBA playoffs betting primer is here. Zach Cohen, JVT, myself break it all down for you. Get set for the NBA playoffs. That and more. Let's go.
12:16
Get expert analysis and the latest odds delivered straight to your inbox absolutely free. Visit VSiN.com/newsletter to subscribe. No chance for small talk. Too much to talk about with Drew Dincic.
12:27
He is the co-host, of course, of not only the Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Molator, Dincic Classic, but also new Dincic, NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher, @whale_capper on Twitter.
12:39
Comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Let me just start here, Drew. Um, how smug are you right now that you're gonna win your Go Bear Defensive Player of the Year award?
12:49
It's gonna come home for you, isn't it? [laughs] I think so. Uh, but, uh, not very smug at all, man. I've been just eating hum- humble pie for going on a month and a half now.
12:58
[laughs] Um, I just took, took an absolute bath in the Masters.
13:02
Uh, the-- I finally capitulated, uh, and kind of gave up the, the ghost that the Thunder were gonna win the one seed and bought all of this, uh, Nuggets, uh, um, to win the Northwest, and then they lose to the Spurs in a collapse in the fourth quarter on Friday, and I was just like, "I can't believe what I'm seeing."
13:22
Uh, and, uh, ultimately, um, yeah, there are... I could go on and on. There are so many examples of the way things kind of broke against me.
13:29
If, if, uh, uh, if the Magic had choked that, uh, seemingly im- insurmountable lead to the Heat in the s- in the Southeast, uh, I would have been, uh, like, "Oh, man, I need to take a serious break here." [laughs] Yeah.
13:41
Well, I will say this, that that Spurs Nuggets finish might have been the most unlikely, given the stakes, right- Yeah... that the Nuggets had. Maybe it was the most unlikely stretch of basketball of the entire season.
13:54
So, um- Yeah... you, you can't be blamed necessarily for that. Let, let us begin with the play-in games. Western Conference play-ins tonight. Eastern Conference play-ins tomorrow.
14:04
Uh, tonight we have the, the seven-eight between the Lakers and the Pelicans, where the Pelicans are one and a half point favorites, and then we got the nine-ten, where the Warriors on the road, two-point favorites at Sacramento.
14:16
Any thoughts or bets on these? Yeah, so I will say that the, uh, the later game is the easier one to just kind of file for, for now because I think those are pretty much perfect numbers.
14:26
Uh, they opened that total about four points too high, and it's adjusted to almost exactly where my fare is, so I'm, I'm pretty fine with, uh, you know, Warriors small favorites total in the, uh, low two-twenties.
14:37
Uh, the opening game, uh, that will, you know, give you a date with destiny here. Uh, a win puts you, uh, directly in the crosshairs of the mighty Nuggets.
14:47
Um, yeah, the-- I'm surprised that, uh, the Lakers, uh, don't have as much support as they did on Sunday.
14:53
Uh, that was one of the more interesting kind of individual game markets on Sunday where, um, you know, you saw them head into New Orleans and, you know, the stakes were pretty high for New Orleans in that game obviously, and, uh, the Lakers got bet aggressively into the close, and they ultimately, you know, kind of won going away.
15:10
And, um, if you-- You know, I, I've been paying attention to Lakers and Pelicans a lot down the stretch here just 'cause of various, you know, random bets and, um, I wasn't surprised to see the Lakers have so much support in that market.
15:22
And I actually thought this game was gonna come in closer to a, a pick'em, uh, and, you know, opening betting kind of sh- uh, suggested that.
15:29
But, uh, there's been late Pelicans support here and, um, you know, I, I can make a very soft argument for why a Pelicans number might be a little bit, uh, appealing to people.
15:38
Like, if you're using, uh, the season-long sample where Brandon Ingram was fully available for this team, uh, and you basically had this roster, like, yeah, the, their power rating was better than the Lakers'.
15:48
Uh, they have the home court.
15:49
Uh, like, you know, there, there are definitely ways to get to a fair where the Pelicans are small favorites here, but I, I personally think that the Lakers and the way that, particularly the way that that supporting cast is playing right now and the fact that you have, uh, you know, your key players peaking at the right time, this is, uh, this is a bad matchup for New Orleans.
16:06
And, uh, New Orleans is a little bit of a flawed team. They're a little bit of a sol- solvable team, uh, because they really just...
16:13
they have some structural flaws with the way that they have to use Zion Williamson, and I think ultimately the, um, the matchup that the Lakers bring to the table with, uh, you know, kind of anchoring that defense on Anthony Davis is pretty perfect to stop these guys.
16:26
And it's gonna take, uh, you know, a, a positive shooting performance from the likes of the Trey Murphys of the world and, um, you know, you're gonna need, uh, uh, you know, Herb Jones to just completely and totally take, uh, D'Angelo Russell out of this game if the Pelicans think they're gonna get a win here.
16:42
So, um, yeah, I mean, I, I wouldn't be shocked at all if we see a lot more of like a, a repeat of what we saw on Sunday. Nothing on the Dubs and the Kings? Nothing tonight on that? Yes.
16:51
Well, I have under, but it's not at current market. [laughs] Okay. Okay. All right. Uh, I'm, I'm, I'm holding under two-twenty-six. I don't think this was, uh...
17:02
I, I don't really understand how that one got there, right? So this is a, um,
17:08
um, a rematch, obviously, of last year's, uh, you know, first round playoff series, and that was a f- really, really fun series in so many ways.
17:15
But, uh, that was a full-strength Sacramento Kings team, uh, and in general, it was, uh, just a kind of a wide open just offensive, uh, series to start and then kind of wound down in possessions as they kind of figured each other out.
17:27
And, uh, I ha- I was expecting this one to kind of open in the two-twenty-two range and, uh, opened at two-twenty-eight and a half.
17:34
That's one of the bigger misses I can remember in any kind of like high stakes, uh, market like this. So, um, yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm holding some pretty significant under here. I hope it's a close game.
17:44
I hope the fourth quarter kind of slows down a little bit. And just in general, without the firepower of Kevin Huerter and, um, Malik Monk, the Kings have had to pivot to being a more, uh, defensive-minded team.
17:55
Uh, when they do kind of let things go and just kind of have a little bit more offensive flow, uh, their defense, and particularly in transition, is just h- completely habitable.
18:03
And so, um, you know, for the most part, they've tried to slow things down, uh, and they've tried to just in general get a little bit more defensive coherence, and it's not really working especially well.
18:13
And I think the, uh, Warriors, particularly with, uh, you know, Curry and, uh, and Draymond kind of anchoring offense and defense is, is gonna be a tough, uh, thing for Sacramento to handle in this one.
18:24
And, uh, ultimately, I think, uh, Golden State as a small favorite makes sense to me. But I wouldn't go and, you know, go nuts and lay, lay the points here with Golden State.
18:32
I think they're gonna come through, but I think it'll be a competitive game. Real quick, 'cause we won't have a chance to talk to you beforehand. Uh, tomorrow night's the Eastern Conference play-ins. Yeah.
18:39
Seven-eight, Sixers-Heat, with the Sixers favored by four and a half, then the nine-ten between the Bulls and the Hawks, with the Bulls favored by three. Yeah, I think the, uh, number in Miami-Philly is right.
18:49
Four and a half is, is where I would be at. I played some under there as well, and that's still kind of in range. It's at 206 and a half right now. I bet it to 207 and a half. Um,
18:59
I, I really-- I- I'm just not exactly sure what you're gonna see, uh, from the Miami, uh, bench unit in that one. That's kind of the deciding factor as far as I could tell you.
19:07
The, um, the Sixers', uh, starters have such a clear and obvious advantage over the, uh, Miami starters that, you know, kind of expecting the Sixers to get out to a decent lead.
19:17
Maybe pa- playing Sixers first quarter minus one and a half is, is kind of in the, uh, in the cards here for me.
19:23
But, uh, I think, you know, Philadelphia could take advantage of their match-ups, uh, when Embiid is on the floor, and I think, uh, Miami's gonna really, really need their bench unit to step up to make this game competitive.
19:34
Uh, I think they play it on April fourth, and that was really kind of the tale of the tape there.
19:38
Like, the, uh, the bench unit, kind of anchored by Kevin Love, were able to kind of claw back, uh, some pretty aggressive deficits and make that a competitive game, and I think that's pretty much where Miami sits in this one.
19:48
Um, I w-- you know, their, their best case scenario, can Miami win? Yes. Uh, you know, like, if they're within a bucket and, uh, you know, Jimmy puts his cape on in the fourth quarter, uh, can they steal this one?
19:58
Absolutely.
19:59
Like, there are definitely still some questions about a lot of what Philadelphia's trying to do offensively, um, you know, particularly in the end of game, that they didn't get a chance to work out 'cause they just didn't have Embiid available for the whole second half of the season.
20:10
And I, I think ultimately Miami could, uh, find a way to steal, but they're gonna have to be close, which means the bench is gonna have to close gaps.
20:17
And, uh, so I think kind of watching those minutes, particularly in the first half, and kind of gauging whether Miami's up to the task is gonna be, uh, kind of helpful for making a second half bet there. Okay.
20:27
Hawks-Bulls nothing? Hawks-Bulls, I played the over. 220 is kind of disrespectful. Atlanta's got a very, very, very capable offense, uh, and a very questionable defense.
20:37
Chicago's players in general, like everybody that's in their closing five, I have huge questions about all of their defensive limitations.
20:43
I, I really don't understand how this one's staying under 230, and, uh, that's probably the biggest edge on the board for me I currently-- at current price. Okay.
20:51
Uh, wanna get to the four series that are already lined and that begin on Thursday night. Of the four, two on Thursday, scheduled, uh, two on Friday.
21:01
Of the four that exist, just so we can squeeze in one before the break, which is the one that you have the least thoughts and/or bets on? Uh, I-- least thoughts or bets? Ooh. Uh, probably the Magic and the Cavs.
21:16
Um, I don't think there's a case to be made for the dog there.
21:19
Uh, it's pretty obvious, at least to me, that, uh, kind of the specific-- the, the singular impact of, uh, of a Donovan Mitchell in the series like that is, is gonna be tough for the Magic to match.
21:30
And, uh, the Magic's kind of, uh, struggle, their, their kind of stumble into the close was, uh, it was a tough hang.
21:37
Uh, and the end of se-- end of game, uh, high leverage moments where, you know, basically they gave the ball to Paolo and said, "Hey, man, go do something," and he would have, uh, pretty obvious opportunities to drive, drove halfway down the lane, turned his back on the basket and looking around for anybody, anybody, anybody gonna do anything?
21:54
No?
21:55
Okay, I'll just take a, you know, a last second heave into the clock is just-- It's-- That is, is, you know, kind of classic, like this stuff will doom you, uh, in the playoffs when you were watching it at the end of the regular season.
22:05
And, uh, you know, I, I don't think the Magic has solved anything. I think this is gonna be pretty likely the Cavs, uh, to lose.
22:11
And, uh, you know, close games will tilt in their favor because of Donovan Mitchell particularly.
22:15
And, uh, and then there definitely could be some games where the Cavs are just clicking, particularly at home, and, and the Magic can't answer. All right.
22:22
Cavaliers four and a half point favorites in game one on Thursday in Cleveland. They are minus 185 series favorites, best of seven against the Magic. That's the four-five of the East.
22:32
We'll get to the Suns and the T-Wolves and the Mavericks and the Clippers out West, and that Pacers-Bucks series as well.
22:37
Plus Drew's NFL draft bets, what he's made, what he's looking for, how he feels about the draft, all of that. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:46
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. For a limited time, we're offering two weeks of our exclusive betting splits for free. Just sign up at vsin.com/splits.
23:00
The VSiN betting splits page is updated with DraftKings odds every five minutes, so you can see changes in all the action, find out where the public is betting based on the number of tickets, and where the money does not match the public opinion.
23:08
Then you can check out not just today's action, but future events as well. Take advantage of this limited time offer. Visit vsin.com/splits now to claim your free two-week access to VSiN's betting splits.
23:19
Don't strike out on potential winnings. Visit vsin.com/splits. Start making smarter bets today. Gil Alexander, Kelly Hvidlon, Drew Dincic @whale_capper, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line once again.
23:31
Uh, Deep Dive podcast with Andy Milator, and of course, Bet The Edge with Jay Croucher, NBC Sports Bet The Edge. Great podcast, the both of them. Um, and Drew,
23:42
let us start where we left off because we do have some news where Woj is now pr- uh, reporting, Adrian Wojnarowski, that what was already a lot of doubt about whether Giannis could play in game one of this series against the Pacers for the Bucks, now it is official, Giannis is out of game one of this series for the Bucks against the Pacers, which begins on Friday.
24:02
The Pacers are now, and I see it moving before our very eyes, the Pacers were a one-point favorite when it first happened off air. Now they're a one and a half point favorite in game one of this series.
24:13
Yeah, good old-fashioned price discovery. Uh, but I, I mean, this is late to the party. Um, [laughs] uh, I don't know who honestly thought Giannis was gonna... I mean, I guess I shouldn't say that.
24:24
Like, Giannis is surprised, right?
24:26
Like, there-- his, you know, that title run, uh, he had a hyperextended knee bone bruise thing at one point, and I remember being like, "Well, that's it for him," and he s- comes back two games later and was unbelievable.
24:36
So, uh, he does have some kind of ability to play through, uh, you know, difficult injuries.
24:41
I'm glad for his, you know, future and potential entertainment value of these playoffs that he is sitting out this game because, you know, when the injury first happened it was like, "Oh my gosh, Kevin Durant all over again."
24:54
Uh, you know, c- you, you got a guy that's been carrying the offensive load for a Bucks team for so much of the season and it's, you know, wears him down to the point where you have this non-contact cap thing and it's like, man, that's like, that's the sign.
25:06
Like, that happens, the next, the next time, you know, you push through this, you don't let it heal correctly and it becomes an Achilles, and, uh, I don't want that to happen.
25:13
I would much rather see a healthy and, uh, kind of effective Giannis at least give the Celtics, you know, some sort of challenge in this Eastern Conference playoffs.
25:22
But, um, right now I think it's pretty clear that, uh, you know, bets to be made were on the Pacers for the series, on the Pacers for game one, uh, in the hopes that they can, uh, you know, at a minimum, uh, take home court advantage away from the Bucks in the absence of Giannis, and I think that's a realistic expectation.
25:37
This Pacers team has kind of given a little bit of a short shift in the market, and, you know, I mean, I think that this is common when you have a young team that hasn't played together in the playoffs and people just haven't seen it with their eyes.
25:48
They don't realize that, you know, that there are some pretty dynamic aspects to the offense in particular.
25:53
And, uh, if you have, um, a player like Tyrese Haliburton who, um, you know, people may be, I think, wildly underrating his potential effect on this series in particular, uh, I think is, is kind of the, the key factor here.
26:09
And why, I mean, you know, this isn't even really a very complicated handicap. Tyrese Haliburton started the season as one of the top five players in the NBA, period.
26:17
Like, he was clearly, clearly, uh, taking a huge step forward in the months of, uh, October, November, December. Um, he took the Pacers to the, you know, the in-season tournament finals. Uh, and he was, you know,
26:30
he was specifically engineering offense and, like, you could think back to, oh, I don't know, the semifinal game of the play in tour- of the in-season tournament where they completely un- uh, you know, took apart the Bucks' defense.
26:41
And you say, "Okay, well, like, is that guy, you know, is he still around?" And yes, the answer is yes. He got hurt.
26:47
He, he, uh, had a hamstring injury that caused him to miss, uh, a couple of weeks in the month of January, really threw some cold water on his season.
26:54
He played through the injury as opposed to just resting so that he could be eligible for All NBA and awards.
26:59
And because of that, like his data when he's playing through that injury was miserable, and it makes people kind of, uh, a little bit, uh, I think, underestimate what his impact could be, particularly in this series.
27:09
The Bucks have clear, in my opinion, clear, um, structural issues with their defense and their point of attack defense in particular. Haliburton is gonna take advantage of that early and often in this series.
27:19
And, uh, until and, and if, uh, Giannis comes back, I think the Pacers have a pretty clear advantage just head, heads up here, uh, as currently rostered.
27:27
And so, um, yeah, happy, happy to see the Pacers flip to favorites in this game one. Uh, I think they can win game one, and I think Giannis is unlikely to play game two.
27:36
Uh, so they will probably open as favorites in game two, and if you, uh, you know, if they can, you know, realize their potential and win those two games and take, uh, take this thing two-zero back to Indiana- Jeez...
27:47
um, I don't know what, uh, you know, Giannis is gonna be able to do to save this thing. I think- Series- You know, I th- Series price is down everywhere, right?
27:54
Like, it shouldn't be up anywhere I would imagine, the series price at this point. I'm seeing it taken down. Yeah, I- I would expect, yes. Yeah. I would expect, yeah. Yeah, I would think so. Yeah.
28:01
Like game, game numbers move, and I'm interested to see- Yeah... I mean, Drew, what did this open at Bucks, like minus 250, something like that, 260?
28:08
I mean, what, what is this gonna get down to before [laughs] game one starts? I mean, probably, uh, realistically minus 140 maybe.
28:16
Uh, maybe, I, I, you know, I, I'm guessing, but, but, uh, you know, people are probably digging in right now and really trying hard to figure out, like, at what point do we expect Giannis back.
28:25
My guess, uninformed, uh, you'll see him in game three. Uh, but they may be at a 0-2 disadvantage at that point, and if that's the case then, you know, your series price, why, why bet the Bucks now?
28:36
[laughs] Like, like really why bet the Bucks now period is kind of- Yeah... the, the real question. Oh. Like, is there gonna be resistance, right?
28:42
Like, you need to g- if you're, if you're trying to d- if, if you're doing old, you know, some old-fashioned price discovery, which we'll get into with the draft prices in a minute I'm assuming, um, you know, that, th- I, I don't really know where you're finding resistance for a Bucks series price right now except for the people who went swinging hard on Pacers out of the gate.
28:58
All right. Drew, you're gonna have to stay for another segment, yes? We gotta, we, 'cause we can't fit it all in. Can you do that? [laughs] Is that possible? Sure. All right. Um, [laughs] let's go to the West.
29:06
Um, all right, Phoenix and Minnesota. When, when you and I were talking about, and Kelly, we, we were all talking about, like, what's the series you can't wait for in the playoffs from a price standpoint?
29:15
Here we have a series where the T' Wolves are a, you know, a two-point favorite in game one on Wednesday night, tomorrow night, but they are a series dog. We have one of these situations. How do you view the whole thing?
29:26
Yeah, interesting, another interesting kind of rematch, right? We saw these teams play Sunday, and the Suns took apart the T' Wolves. Um, and then you're like, "Whoa.
29:34
I mean, yeah, that's, the T' Wolves weren't playing very much." You look back in the series and, yes, the Suns took apart the T' Wolves all three times they played them.
29:41
Uh, that's not a good sign, uh, if you're a Timberwolves faithful.
29:45
Uh, and I think ultimately, uh, the key for the Timberwolves is almost certainly they are gonna have to, uh, come up with some wrinkles and changes to their defensive strategy to stop the Suns, uh, early in the series to protect home court.
29:58
And then, uh, if they can take advantage of some of the Suns' issues defensively, particularly in game three or four, uh, then the Timberwolves could, uh, end this thing in five.
30:07
I think it's important for them to try to do that because the longer that this series goes, the more likely it is that you're really kind of playing with fire and that, uh, you're giving, you know, KD and the Suns an opportunity to turn this into a iso ball type of, uh, you know, end of game this close.
30:24
And, uh, and in those situations, the Suns have a pretty clear advantage. And so if this gets to game six, I'm feeling very, very unfavorable as I'm holding a-- if I w- if I would be holding a Timberwolves ticket.
30:36
Uh, if we get to game seven, then you're in, you're in real, real deep trouble because the Timberwolves, they, they have some clunky offensive tendencies, uh, at times, and they're really counting on, uh, Anthony Edwards, who took a huge step forward this season to kind of be the guy, be kind of, you know, kind of guy that carries them in a playoff series.
30:51
And that's possible offensively, particularly against a Suns team that, uh, doesn't defend especially well.
30:56
And I think, um, you know, I think the kind of the n- the- The two kind of bimodal out- you know, outcomes here are the Timberwolves defend home court, get one in Phoenix, and then end this thing early, uh, or this series goes long, and in that case, it's advantage Suns.
31:13
Uh, the fact that the Suns are small favorites is surprising to me because I think, uh, fundamentally, I think the, the game one price is, is correct and, and maybe even a little bit low on Minnesota.
31:23
Uh, so if Minnesota, you know, defends home court here, uh, particularly in game one, uh, you're gonna get a much, much cleaner crack at a Suns series price if that's what you're, you're into.
31:32
Um, and honestly, I would just-- I would say game two probably decides this thing one way or the other. If the Suns win that game, then, you know, it's on.
31:39
Uh, and if Minnesota wins, then there's still a path for them to get this thing done early. So I don't think I'm ultimately gonna take much action on this series either way.
31:48
Um, but I think ult- but I think ultimately I'm betting Timberwolves out of the gate here. Um, they need to come up with ways to defend the, uh, you know, the, the intermediate zone, uh, the long two.
31:59
Uh, the Timberwolves give up those. That's like kind of the one hole in their defense, and that's the one strength of the Suns.
32:05
Uh, but I think that's fixable, and I think, uh, just in general, Timberwolves are being a little bit under, uh, appreciated by market in this first game. It's, it's the same story in the four-five, right?
32:14
The Clippers with home court, one-and-a-half point favorites in game one, but a series dog to the Mavericks. Exact same situation. Exact same situation with one huge caveat.
32:26
The best player for the Clippers might not be 100%. He might not be good to go.
32:29
Uh, we really don't-- I, I really do not love any of the, uh, kind of messaging that the Clippers are doing about, uh, the health and status of, uh, uh, of Mr. Kawhi Leonard.
32:40
And, uh, if you look back at when were the Clippers their best this year, Kawhi Leonard was playing at an MVP level. He was a huge, huge reason why.
32:47
And, uh, if this all of a sudden turns into the Harden and Paul George show against Luka, uh, best of luck to the Clippers.
32:54
Um, I think ultimately the Mavericks are constructed as sort of the ideal playoff roster right now.
32:59
Uh, I have huge positions on the Mavericks in this series, which kind of are in one way getting me off of, um, you know, Western Conference and out- and outright futures that I put on the Clippers in January when they were the best team in basketball.
33:12
But, uh, yeah, the Mavericks look like the, uh, uh, the clearly better team, particularly if Kawhi is limited. All right, we'll come back. We'll review specifically what Drew's bets are.
33:21
We'll just list them, and then we'll move on to the NFL draft, get his thoughts on that. I assume you can stay, Drew. I don't wanna, I don't wanna- Oh, sure. Okay, just making sure. For sure. Yeah.
33:30
Undefeated lifetime on that one still. [laughs] The very poor radio form in the show, uh, ask. More with Drew on the other side. NBA and NFL next.
33:41
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33:59
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34:07
New customers bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly. Nice. That's code V-S-I-N, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. We'll get to tweets. Uh, we'll get to, uh, the Guardian's bet.
34:22
We'll get to a whole bunch of other stuff. Wanna ask Kelly about a, uh-- I'll ask Drew also while he's here about this, uh, NFL prop.
34:28
But, uh, real quick before we get into the NFL draft, can you just-- So then just to clarify for folks, the bets you've made in games, uh, in play-ins, in game ones, and in series thus far are listed. Sure.
34:41
So don't have a bet in Lakers-Pelicans, but I think that should be closer to a pick.
34:46
Uh, I do have an under in Warriors-Kings, but the market has come with me, and right now I don't see a ton of edge on under 222 and a half. Uh, I think the Hawks-Bulls over 220 is the bet of the week.
34:57
Uh, and then, uh, Heat-Sixers is gonna be, uh, that one's gonna be a fourth quarter under, I got a feeling. Um, but, uh, it is gonna depend on the Heat, uh, keeping that one competitive.
35:07
Uh, in the, uh, series price markets, I think the Cavs are correctly a heavy favorite over the Magic.
35:12
Uh, I think the, uh, Suns-Timberwolves is pretty, um, uh, dependent on the Suns getting a win early in that series, and I think Timberwolves are a bet in game one at minus two.
35:22
Uh, I played them at minus two, I shouldn't say. I think they are a bet. I did bet the Timberwolves. Uh, and then Pacers-Bucks, I'm holding Bucks.
35:29
Obviously, I'm, I'm holding Pacers, uh, series price, uh, in the, uh, plus 200 range. I think that if you can get them at plus money, it's a fair play just because we're not gonna see Giannis until game three.
35:38
That's my guess, not inside knowledge. Uh, and I think Pacers, uh, kind of should be correctly the, uh, small favorite in game one. Uh, biggest position series price-wise for me is Mavericks. I bet them several times.
35:51
I think they are better than the Clippers in pretty much every way, and I am very concerned that Kawhi Leonard is not going to be, uh, an especially effective piece of that series.
35:59
All right, Mavericks at minus 130 now, thereabouts on the series price. Okay, NFL draft. Let me start with the question, then we'll get to what you've bet so far, but I wanna start with this question about quarterbacks.
36:09
That always garners the headlines. Uh, the numbers set at four and a half. Everybody has bet the over way up so that it's a prohibitive favorite.
36:17
Have we gotten to the point where the under might represent value now, Drew? Like, are we 100% convinced that either Nix or Penix is going to go in the first round?
36:31
I, I'm not especially convinced of either of those guys. Um, I'm also like-- I, I'm, I'm a little-- I, I guess I'll, I'll be, I'll be-- Let's be totally candid [chuckles] here for a second.
36:41
Uh, I do almost all of my betting offshore. I live in California. Those are, that's the, the, that's the geographic constraint that I'm stuck with.
36:50
Um, the offerings in terms of what you can bet in the draft offshore, particularly and if you wanna get bets of size, are effectively zero. Like, there's, there's no market for me to bet.
37:01
If I wanted to bet the draft, I literally have to just call someone in a legal state who has just, you know, a, an unlocked account [laughs] and try to get them to get down for me.
37:09
And that's maybe where this ends up going, uh, you know, for me if I wanna really have real deal skin in the draft this year.
37:14
Um, but so all that said, like, I would say that the market itself is very, is still wildly, um, immature.
37:21
It's lacking, you know, much, uh, kind of information from the people who have kind of real deal, you know, money to put at stake in this thing.
37:30
And so, um, yeah, I think, uh, you know, there, it's still, things are pretty soft still.
37:35
Um, and I, my op- my specific opinion on the quarterbacks, and this is maybe should be qualified by because I can't really bet into this, I haven't really been working as hard, right?
37:46
Like, if you c- you know, what, what- Yeah... w- I'm not doing this for fun. Right.
37:49
[laughs] Like [laughs] I'm not, I'm not gonna waste my time, like, reading mock drafts if I can't actually, like, y- you know, turn around and utilize that so. Yeah.
37:55
Um, you know, so, but that, all that said, I, I get the sense that there was a huge, huge kind of early momentum for quarterbacks in this, in this market, you know.
38:06
And just in the, in the expectation of quarterbacks going at the top of this draft, particularly with the, uh, when the Vikings made that trade to acquire a second first-round pick. People are like, "Well, there we go.
38:14
Bang, bang, bang, four quarterbacks right at the top. This is how this is gonna go." And it's like, okay, well, that, that made sense to put the puzzle pieces together at that time, but the Vikings haven't made a trade.
38:24
Uh, and you know, you now have this situation where you're counting on the Patriots to take a quarterback if you want a quarterback run.
38:31
You're counting on the Vikings trading up to four or five to take a quarterback if you want a quarterback run, and you're hoping that the likes of the Raiders or the Broncos is gonna do something stupid, uh, and, you know, kind of wildly overdraft a quarterback if you want to get to five.
38:45
So I, yeah, I, I'm, I'm just in general right now kind of a seller, uh, on all of the quarterback speculation. Um, I think if you want to kind of put in pen Caleb Williams at the top, not stopping anyone.
38:57
If you wanna put in kind of heavy pencil Jayden Daniels at, uh, number two, I'm not gonna stop you.
39:02
But, uh, I think at, that's kind of where the certainty ends in terms of who's gonna take a quarterback, uh, and at, uh, and at what price, you know?
39:09
'Cause it, it, all, all of the kind of connecting the dots for other quarterbacks require trades.
39:14
And, you know, these, it hasn't happened, number one, and expecting it to happen on the fly when, you know, these teams are doing all their due diligence on the players that they think are gonna be available in the range that they [laughs] are currently slotted is, you know, it just makes kind of trading in the top 10.
39:28
Like, it's not, it's, it's not that easy. Uh, you know, it's just, there's so much that has to go into it nowadays to have a, an agreement in principle, if not just, it just outright.
39:37
Like, like last year is a good example. Like, the third overall pick got traded, and ultimately there was a soft agreement in place before the draft even started that the Titans were gonna move up to three to take C.J.
39:48
Stroud if he was available. But, uh, you know, the Texans of course take Stroud too, and then that made there be no trade partner for the, uh, Cardinals at three. So the Texans came up to three, right?
39:58
And, like, that ha- it was entirely, like, possible because they, you know, they had, uh, you know, the specific things fell into place that way.
40:05
And, you know, I think ultimately if there are soft agreements for certain players and those players are not available, then yeah, you could see this, this top 10 stay pretty static.
40:14
In which case I think quarterbacks are sliding.
40:17
Uh, and I, I'm kind of most intrigued by what the Vikings do obviously, because it seems like they've pretty clearly kind of connected all of their, or at least, you know, all of the dots are connected to J.J.
40:27
McCarthy for whatever reason. Uh, and, uh, I don't think it's crazy that he's just gonna be available for them at 11.
40:34
Um, so, uh, it's, it's gonna be, uh, you know, kind of Patriots at three is where the fun starts, and, uh, I think all, the fact that teams three, four, and five all have shown interest in trading down is, is notable.
40:46
I, I bring it up because that is how my thinking is right now. Like, I, I... Listen, I've said it a million times on this show, teams justifiably get quarterback crazy on draft day. I get it.
40:58
But I just have a feeling that when push comes to shove here, neither Nix nor Penix is gonna get picked in the first round.
41:04
And I, at least from a betting standpoint, I think the value has completely switched to the under here, and, uh, I s- I smell a bet coming from me for sure on that. It, did you bet anything thus far though, given your...
41:16
By the way, neither Kelly nor I clutched our pearls- [laughs]... uh, when you said that you were betting this offshore, I just have to point that out. Um, but did you- Oh, sure... did you bet anything?
41:23
What did you bet so far? Uh, so okay. So early in the cycle I got a dec- a decent, not nothing to write home about, uh, stake on, uh, over offensive players when it was, like, 19 and a half and 20. Oh, that's right.
41:37
And I thought that was absurd. Yeah.
41:39
Uh, and then late [laughs] in the cycle, uh, a place that we, we, uh, don't wanna rub this in their face, 'cause I, honestly I'm, I'm hemorrhaging money there right now anyway, so they, they, they're getting the better of me.
41:50
But, uh, there was a specific shop that let correlated parlays up for an awfully long time.
41:55
[laughs] And so I got, I came back the other way, and I have, I, I now very, very much would love to see 21 offensive players and 11 defensive players. That would be just chef's kiss, uh, of a first round.
42:06
And I think, uh, you know, you look at who are the risers right now in the bottom half of the first round, I think it's a lot of cornerbacks.
42:13
I think there's potentially some, you know, defensive linemen who, uh, you know, are gonna be targeted by those teams late.
42:19
Uh, and I think some of the, um, you know, kind of early, you know, some of the early mocks that you had consistent names from the offensive line who were hitting the board in the 20s and the, and the early 30s, uh, a lot of those guys look, look like they're sliding right now.
42:32
So I think you could have this shift where more cornerbacks than expected, more defensive linemen expected, fewer offensive linemen than expected.
42:40
Uh, and if, to get the offensive players over right now, you're gonna need five quarterbacks, and you're gonna need somebody to take, uh, take a shot on a wide receiver before, uh, they're, you know, realistically, um, you know, slotted to go.
42:52
So, um, could happen, uh, but I ultimately think that, uh, uh, it, it's set up now well for teams in the bottom half of the draft who have any interest in, you know, kind of getting a blue chip player on defense are gonna have their pick of the litter.
43:05
May that book you, uh, refer to continue to have the opening glitch of allowing us to parlay- [laughs]... correlated NFL draft props each and every year.
43:14
Um, okay, so then, uh, we gotta run, but in, in general you feel like you will have less on this than previous drafts? Is that what I'm getting? As of this moment.
43:23
I mean, the Freeding frenzy at Circa yesterday was hil- was crazy. 'Cause number one, like, you know, credit to them for going to the trouble of price discovery.
43:32
Like, that was good old-fashioned price discovery if you've ever seen it. Yeah. Yeah. And, um, I,
43:37
I w- I, considering what the limits were, I kind of wish there would've been somebody who was available in market wherever they were to just kind of hold some of those prices in place until they were more widely available.
43:48
Um, but, uh, so be it. Uh, uh, the m- moves were hilarious.
43:52
Uh, and, uh, yeah, I think, uh, ultimately what the current looks, the current, uh, numbers at Circa aren't really kinda inspiring me to go, go now, you know, to get on a plane and fly to Vegas, I guess. Okay.
44:03
[laughs] Okay, well said. Drew, thanks for the extra segment. We appreciate it. A lot to get to today with the NBA playoffs and the draft. Thank you, sir. Absolutely. Best of luck in the playoffs, man.
44:11
Drew Dincic @whale_capper. Very transparent, very honest in much of what he said, too. Um, not his greatest stretch of betting, and he's front and center about it. Um, but all it takes is one event to turn it all around.
44:25
That's right. We'll come back. Champions League with Paul Carr on the other side. Kelly and I got more in NFL draft as well.
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