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Apr 16, 2025
A Numbers Game | April 16, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | April 16, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. I'm radio's Gil Alexander. That's radio's Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
0:24
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's happening, man? Not much. How you doing? I'm good. Um, you have play-in fever yet? I do. That was a, uh, heck of a game last night.
0:36
Felt like it went on for seven hours. I gotta talk to you about that game. Uh, we'll, we'll talk about both games here briefly momentarily. More play-in games tonight, the nine, tens tonight.
0:44
Uh, we are jammed with guests today. Jam. Will Hill joins us, host of the Shoulda Been More podcast. Uh, give all his plays, Major League Baseball, NFL Draft, whatever he's betting.
0:55
Always a pleasure to check in with Will.
0:57
JVT, uh, VSiN host, senior NBA analyst, samesies on him, everything he's betting, including not only the NBA play-in games tonight, if he has a play in either of those two ball games, but also, of course, the series, which now we have established series prices for the two sevens as well after last night.
1:14
Bro, he hit a ridiculous player prop bet. Uh, remi- remind me once we get to the Warriors game. Is this the Zach Edey thing? Yeah. The rebounds? 17 plus rebounds he bet. [laughs] Yeah.
1:25
It was- I don't even know what odds he had... it was at 14 w- 'cause, uh, 'cause Brian Musberger was tracking this as well. I happened to be with Brian Musberger last night at Circa.
1:33
He was tracking it as well, 'cause I think he was on it. I think he said it was plus 180. Oh, wow. Okay.
1:39
But it was, it was 14 with five minutes left in the game, and then Zede- Edey just had tremendous, yeah, he soared past it. Uh, Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke, Raheem Palmer from The Ringer today, baby.
1:50
Let's go. Talking NBA with Raheem. And our own Mike Somich. Uh, we don't get to talk to Mike very often, but Mike's got thoughts on multiple sports, maybe even some hockey thoughts. Yeah.
1:59
As the, uh, the NHL playoffs begin this weekend. I love what the NHL does. They finish the regular season tomorrow, and they barely blink, and the playoffs are underway. You know what?
2:09
I was thinking about this yesterday. I actually kind of like the NBA takes this, like, week. L- it allows you to kind of reset, I think for, for the new pe- for the new NBA pe- uh, audience. Yes...
2:19
it allows them to, like- And there is a new NBA audience... yeah, come out of the Masters, get into the play-in games, and then ramp up to the playoffs.
2:26
For us who bet it all the time, it just gives us a little bit of a break to reset and evaluate these series and everything. But your hockey doesn't mess around. [laughs] They're like, "Regular season's over.
2:34
We're starting two days later." I love that. Um, and then, uh, yeah, so the, we are, we are overbooked with guests. Uh, Kelly Bidlin, violation, 15 yards, overbooking of guests. Okay. No, I love it.
2:44
I, I love it actually, 'cause these are tons of great guests today. Uh, let's start with the play-in games last night, the seven-eights. Both favorites win. Both favorites do not cover.
2:52
Warriors do not cover, uh, the spread. They only end up winning by five. We'll start with game one, where it went under, by the way.
3:01
Well, first game went under, second game went over, but the Magic get it done against the Atlanta Hawks. Um, and the Magic do it behind Cole Anthony's fine performance.
3:12
The, the funniest part of that game last night, by the way, the Magic end up winning this by 25. They were up 22. The Hawks got it within three, and then the Magic pulled away to, to win by 25.
3:24
So it was one of those kinds of NBA games, and Trae Young handled it very well at the end of the game with, uh, two consecutive technical fouls where he acted like a seven-year-old.
3:31
Yeah, yeah, it's a perfect description. It was great. Perfect description. He- No, my ball He threw the ball at one ref and then he kept it away from the other. I'm leaving. [laughs] That's right. I'll see you on Friday.
3:42
Cole Anthony and Anthony Black off the bench combined for 42 points, nine assists, seven rebounds on 66% shooting. Th- th- that's pretty good. Yeah.
3:51
The most comical part of this, the play-by-play guy, Brian, uh, Brian Anderson, when Cole Anthony, Cole Anthony had a particularly awesome stretch during the third quarter- Mm...
3:58
of this as they were building the lead back up, and, uh, as they were going to commercial break as the Hawks, or they had to call timeout on one of these Cole Anthony flurries, and I think it was, it ended with a beautiful pass to W- to Wendell Carter for a jam.
4:09
And, uh, Brian Anderson into break goes, [laughs] he goes, "Cole Anthony has arrived." And then there's this pregnant pause, and he goes, "In the play-in tournament." [laughs] I just, out loud I'm laughing.
4:21
I'm like, [laughs] he had to catch himself. Uh, so the Magic advance, and the Magic take on the Boston Celtics in a best of seven, 7-2 series in the East, where the Celtics are huge prohibitive, uh, series favorites.
4:32
And I guess I'll, I'll wrap this one up quickly, up quickly by just asking you,
4:37
uh, season series, Magic actually beat the Celtics two out of three, but in the two games that the Magic won, there was no Tatum in the first, and there was no Tatum, Brown, or Holiday in the second. Yeah.
4:49
And the Celtics beat them by 27 in the game that they did have those guys. Uh, minus 6,000 on the Celtics, 16 to one on the comeback for the Magic. Would, is there any bet here?
5:00
Would you bet the series total over ga- over, over five and a half games is plus 320? So this is either what the market is saying is sweep or gentleman's sweep. Yeah. I, I, I think it's most likely Boston 4-1.
5:13
You know what? I'll go, I'll go more likely 4-2 than 4-0, though. Oh, really? How about that? I'll go, I'll go that.
5:18
The Magic, we've seen this team and this core, uh, give this Boston team some trouble over the past couple years, and the bigger thing to me, Gil, is, uh, Jaylen Brown.
5:27
There, there's some questions about his knee and the health of the knee right now, and, uh, y- y- you know, early in the playoffs with a team that's expected to make a deep run, right, you can be cautious with things like that.
5:38
So even if he's not all that injured, maybe they limit minutes. Maybe there's, uh, you know, a game missed or two from Jaylen Brown. Uh, just something to monitor.
5:47
I wouldn't be rushing to, rushing to bet Boston 4-0, like they're gonna sweep the Magic absolutely no problem. Um, I think last night was a good example of what you can see out of this Orlando team.
5:56
They're gonna play tough on defense.
5:58
They, they're the best team in the league and have been for about the past two seasons of limiting three-point opportunities and limiting three-point success, and we know that's what Boston likes to do and how they win games.
6:09
So- I wouldn't surprise me at all if, if Magic gave them trouble for a game or two, but that, I think realistically that's probably all we're talking.
6:17
Um, I was surprised to see the opening game one line at 13 and a half. Wow. And then it actually got bet up. Yeah. It's like 14 and a half now. Over two touchdowns.
6:26
Celtics, by the way, to win in six, just to fo- follow up your, uh, little, uh, talk there. Six to one. Yeah. Celtics to win in six. And then there's the dub shell.
6:34
The Golden State Warriors, uh, win the seven, eight game out west. Uh, they beat the Grizzlies, but they only beat them by five. Spread was seven in the end, six and a half I think is where it closed.
6:44
Um, Golden State led this by 20 with just under seven minutes left in the second quarter, by 12 at the half, by three after three quarters.
6:54
They actually trailed by a bucket and then by one point early in the fourth, and they really only felt good about things when Steph hit a dagger three with just under a minute left where he faked out Scottie Pippen Jr.
7:06
twice with the splash to put the Warriors up six. By the way, if that's Scottie Pippen Sr., that shot is blocked twice. Yes. Um, just to, just to make a generational call there.
7:16
[laughs] But anyway, the Warriors go- Be, be like your dad. Be better. [laughs] Yeah, be better. Be, be legendary.
7:21
Um, Memphis though did-- it wasn't over though, 'cause Memphis did get a chance to tie the game, uh, getting the ball back down three points with 5.1 seconds left. Was it 5.4 or 5.1?
7:31
Uh, 5.1 here left in the game, and a five-second violation called. Uh, Santi Aldama was, uh, inbounding the ball for Memphis.
7:41
Uh, it didn't feel like a five se- I, I don't know, that whole end of that game, by the way, they call the five-second violation. That was Katie bar the door, and the Warriors win it.
7:49
What a, what a strange f- this was w- whatever the opposite of a classic was- Yeah... is what this was down the stretch of this game because the- Refs had to get involved...
7:58
refs were completely involved, and even if the Warriors got a bunch of calls during the body of the game, the, the final stretch of this game, Draymond was a really weak sixth foul to foul him out.
8:13
Podziemski totally blocked that shot late on the, it was just a beautiful block. Mm-hmm. And then Looney gets bizarrely called for a foul when Moody corralled that rebound and he's on the ground.
8:24
We couldn't even tell watching on the big screen without the audio, like, "What, what are they calling?"
8:29
Um, and then conversely, that five-second violation [laughs] of the Grizzlies felt to me more like a, uh, how can I put this? A 4.6-second violation.
8:38
And even it should be noted that even, you know, the NBA is famous for, "Well, you don't make that call at that point of the game." Yeah. The fact that they even made that call is amazing to me. No, I'm with you.
8:47
It, it is, it is wild, and whether it's NBA or college, right? Whenever you get the, the very loose or tight five-second call, it's, it... Five seconds should always just be five seconds.
8:57
It should never feel like four, it should never feel like seven, Gil, but it happens all the time it feels like. Yeah. It, it, it felt quick.
9:03
But anyway, the Warriors win, and so the Warriors now take on the Houston Rockets in a seven-two that has been really anticip- I, I, I wanna say this. Has there ever been a series where
9:15
you feel like the Warriors, this is the team the Warriors wanted to be matched up against, and maybe the Rockets actually wanted to be matched up against the Warriors also?
9:25
Because there's a case to be made on either side. And the answer to the question of where did this series price end up landing is dubs minus 200. Rockets, the two seed, plus 165 as the dog.
9:39
Uh, let me just say this, for what it's worth, season series, Warriors won the season series three games to two. Uh, they won in November.
9:47
They didn't have, certainly didn't have Butler then, and they didn't have Curry in that game. And the, uh, the Warriors won, you know, 127-121 at Houston. Hield had 27, Kuming had 23.
9:59
Then in December, the Warriors won again. They didn't have Curry or Green, let alone not having Butler then. They won by six. Uh, December at Houston, this was an NBA Cup game.
10:09
Remember there was weird officiating at the end of that game, and Steve Kerr got all angry. Mm-hmm. And Houston ended up winning by a point. Uh, Warriors won again at Houston. Curry and Butler now together in February.
10:20
They won at Houston by seven.
10:22
And then this past week, right, so the Warriors up in the season series three to one, but this last game where the Warriors were soaring, uh, Houston stopped them in their tracks with a 10-point win at Houston, where they held Curry to three points in that game.
10:37
I think it was one of 10 shooting, if I'm not mistaken, from the field. Do you agree with this line, minus 200? No. This is higher than I imagined it would be. It is high.
10:46
I, I, I think the most shocking thing to me about thi- uh, about this opening, Gil, was that we talked to a lot of s- and I t- asked a lot of smart NBA people that w- And we were p- pretty much all in the same range of like minus 140 to minus 170.
11:02
Like, everybody I asked that I respect were in that range. And I saw openers last night.
11:06
There were-- I believe there was an offshore that opened at minus 400 on the Warriors, and then FanDuel was like plus 105 on the Rockets, as low as that. Wait, there was an offshore that opened what?
11:16
Minus 400 on the Warriors. What offshore was that? I don't know. I didn't catch who, I didn't catch who it was. That was quite offshore. Y- yeah, exactly. So I, I was surprised at the wide range o- of, of openers here.
11:26
Um, man, it's an awesome opportunity for, for the Houston Rockets, who are s- a two seed seemingly playing with house money against the Golden State Warriors. Yeah. It is the Warriors though.
11:36
I'm not running a bet either side though. This is- No, it's, it's a little higher than I, and I'm a Warriors guy. It's hi- it's higher than I would've imagined. Yeah.
11:42
Uh, we will of course revisit this m- many times on the show today with our guests, beginning with Will Hill next on the Numbers Game at Beason, the sports betting network.
11:58
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:03
Right now you can check out NBA play-in game previews, Wes Reynolds RBC Heritage picks, and Greg Peterson's MLB best bets.
12:10
And later today, you can check out Steve Makinen's NBA analytics report, Jonathan Davis' NHL best bets, and the Rockets/Warriors 2-7 series out west, preview of that.
12:19
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12:32
Um, we went through a whole bunch of tweets last time this guy was on, and we kinda gave him short shrift. And by we, I mean me, so I'm not gonna do that again.
12:38
Ladies and gentlemen, a full-fledged segment with our buddy Will Hill, the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast and, of course, the star of the Megapod and, uh, Chris Fallica's podcast empire over there at Fox Sports.
12:49
He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @NotThee, that's with two Es, Will Hill. Where you coming to us from today, Will? Cary, North Carolina, Gilly. Beautiful down here.
13:02
Uh, great weather. Had to come here for a, a wedding and just turned it into a little, little mini vacation. We came here a few years ago, too.
13:08
Uh, my wife's side of the family has some, uh, uh, wife's side of the family has some family down here, so, uh, nice. Nice to get away.
13:14
K- it's ki- I guess it's really cold and, uh, like snowy back in Connecticut, so it's gonna be- Might be... a little warm when we get back as, uh, people get the, uh...
13:21
Appreciate getting the weather report here, but yeah, good to, uh, good to get away for a few days, but was able to bring all the equipment, still able to bang out some work, so excited.
13:28
Will's down there trying to get some, uh, lorazepam. He heard there was some down there- [laughs]... after watching White Lotus, so that's why he's there.
13:34
Uh, okay, you have-- We don't know you necessarily as an NBA guy first, but we do know that you bet everything, and you are all in on, on a lot of NBA bets here.
13:43
Walk us through some of these, 'cause I know you have some exact series prices as well that you're looking at. I'll start with Warriors/Rockets. Like you guys, I was surprised.
13:53
I was really surprised this opened $2- or is $2. I was thinking Warriors maybe a slight favorite, maybe $1.30, $1.40, maybe that's a little high. Uh, to see minus 200 i- is surprising.
14:03
Now, part of this, I have some Warriors futures. Part of this is a mini hedge. I like the Rockets plus a game and a half. I just worry from a Warriors standpoint
14:12
that the Rockets have a edge in athleticism, physicality, size, offensive rebounding.
14:19
And how much can Curry and Butler, Draymond, how much can the big three do over the course of a long series and not get worn down and not get beat up?
14:28
You know, if, if there was ever a, a prop on over/under for ejections in a series, [laughs] I would look towards an over here.
14:34
I could see Draymond get thrown out of one of these games, 'cause, uh, Houston is a very physical, very feisty team. Their coach is feisty.
14:41
Their coach was talking trash to Kerr and Curry, telling them, "Hey, stop whining." Uh, so this could get ugly.
14:46
Th- this is, uh, you know, this has been a great rivalry with diff- different iterations of at least the Rockets, which speaks to the Curry and the Warriors, through their, their, their longevity, their ability to, you know, withstand the test of time here.
14:58
Uh, I do think ultimately the Warriors win just because they do have Curry, they do have the experience. I'm gonna go with the rare road team wins game seven, but I, I think this is a tough series.
15:09
I think what helps Golden State, too, is they play on, what, Sunday, and then Wednesday, then Saturday, so there's a little bit of a break here where Golden State could, could use a break. It's an older team.
15:19
They've looked a little gassed down the stretch. So I think taking the Rockets plus one and a half is a nice hedge, and I also, uh, think it's the right side. So I think we're looking at a long series here.
15:29
Rockets plus one and a half, and you, you did say you are taking the rare Warriors to win on the road in seven. That would be around plus 550. That's the price- Yeah... uh, we're showing at DraftKings.
15:40
I, I mean, I have the Warriors, I, I have a nice number on the future, and it's funny how you fall into these sometimes just for, for the wrong reasons.
15:46
I [laughs] thought they were gonna get Durant, and from all accounts, the Warriors agreed to it, the Suns agreed to it, and Durant just squashed it.
15:52
So I have a nice number on the Warriors, so I don't know if I'll double down and add them to winning the series.
15:56
But I, I will take the Rockets plus a game and a half, and, uh, I, I do think this has a ch- a, a good chance here to go seven. And I, like, life on the line, I would still pick the Warriors to, uh, to get through.
16:06
Uh, I did play Boston/Orlando game one. I took the Magic under team total 94 and a half.
16:11
I'm curious what Kelly thinks, 'cause Kelly, I had you on a week or so ago on my podcast, and you said you were looking forward to this series, which I understand. Orlando's giving them fits.
16:19
I just don't know if they can score. Yeah. Outside of Paolo, I mean, Boston just doesn't have anybody they have to double. They can just say, "You know what, Paolo? Shoot the ball 30, 40 times. Do whatever you want.
16:27
W- we're not gonna help off anybody." I know Orlando shot the ball last night and got some outlier performance from, from some of their shooters, but this is an awful shooting team. They're gonna be on the road.
16:37
So I played Orlando team total under 94 and a half game one. It's only up at DraftKings now, so you don't have the ability to shop, but I didn't wanna
16:45
lo- not lock myself into something, and then it moves and opens up, you know, 92 and a half, 93 and a half o- other places, and you miss the 94 and a half. So I did play the team total under 94 and a half.
16:54
What are you talking about? Brian Anderson proclaimed that Cole Anthony arrived in the play-in game. [laughs] I love that part.
17:00
Um, the KD thing, by the way, just to go back to that for a second, you think if you gave him truth serum right now he'd be like, "Man, I wish I went to the Dubs. I wish I went there"? I don't know what he thinks. Yeah.
17:10
I, I mean, he says- Probably true... he, he was such a likable guy early in his caree- His approval rating was through the charts. There was nobody who disliked him.
17:17
You know, you remember he was living with his mom and playing video games, and he wasn't one of these guys that w- was, uh, f- involved with drama.
17:24
He just played basketball, put up his 30 points, and we all, everybody loved him. And his career just really got strange. He got strange. He just, he, he, he always seems unhappy where he, wherever he goes.
17:36
It's like the, uh, the drama, the unhappiness follows him around, whether it's the Warriors, where he was winning and still unhappy. He left OKC, wasn't happy with the Nets, not happy now.
17:45
So I, I, I don't know what he's thinking. Yeah. It's probably the rec- probably the right answer. He's an, he's an odd bird.
17:50
You had an exact, uh, if I'm not mistaken, and I, I think I heard this, in the Pistons series, don't you have an exact, uh, bet as well in that?
17:58
I took Pistons plus 330, and I think for the most part, like I just said, I think the Warriors maybe can break this with their experience and win on the road.
18:04
But for the most part, if you're gonna pick the lower seed to win, they're usually gonna do it in six, uh, exactly because, like, if you're gonna upset the Knicks, barring an injury or whatever, you're not gonna win in four.
18:15
You're not gonna sweep them. You're probably not gonna win in five. It would be hard to win a game seven in Madison Square Garden.
18:19
The sweet spot is winning six, and winning six pays nine to one at DraftKings, plus 850 other places.
18:24
I just think they've got to steal one early, hold serve at home, and put yourself in a position where you can close it out in six at home, and I think they're live here.
18:33
They went three and one against them in the regular season. I know it's dicey trying to take what happened in the regular season and apply it to the postseason. I get that. But I think the Knicks are really good.
18:42
They've got a legitimate star in Cunningham. They're gonna have a really good home court advantage. I think the Knicks are, are certainly flawed defensively. So you know what? Steal one early, hold serve, and
18:53
I, I would say if you like the Pistons, maybe put half your bet on the plus 330 and, and part of your bet on the nine to one, because if they're gonna win, it's very likely that they're gonna win it in six.
19:01
I like that, uh, strategery there. Anything else NBA? I like the home teams tonight.
19:07
I, I think the Heat are getting benefit of the doubt just based on the uniform, the, the, the past history of, oh, it's Heat culture, it's Spoelstra. This is not the same team.
19:16
I mean, they got Adebayo, but they, they don't have much else. Uh, so I, I think the Bulls win that game tonight, especially at home. So I like the Bulls. I know all of these totals come down.
19:25
I, I like the unders early, but when they start to move four or five points, it's hard to still play the unders. Um, and, and I like, I, I like the Kings too. I mean, what...
19:33
The Mavericks, what is their life like day to day, where everywhere they go, they get booed. Everywhere they go- [laughs]... like social media is like, "How did you trade Luka? We hate the GM. We hate everybody."
19:42
Their fans are miserable. That's got to be a miserably, miserable experience to be the Dallas Mavericks.
19:47
Couldn't you sense there being a little, like, one, two, three Cancun with them tonight and just say, "You know what? This has been a disaster of a season. Let's just get the hell out of here"?
19:54
If they get down 10 early, it's, it, it's exit stage left. So I think the Kings roll it home here tonight. I, I, I, I question what kind of effort we're getting here from Dallas in what has been just a disaster.
20:04
It must be a disaster day to day these last couple months. And you remind us with one, two, three Cancun, it's the last playoffs with the TNT crew inside the NBA, man. It's gonna be sad.
20:12
It's gonna be sad this, uh, this postseason. Um, okay. But they're staying, right? They're going to ESPN, I thought. Is, is that a done deal? I thought so. I don't know if that's a- I don't think all of them.
20:23
Yeah, I don't think all of them are going. Yeah, and I don't think it's, uh, it's necessarily intact, but we shall see. Uh, time will tell.
20:30
Um, where are you, real quick, on the NFL draft in what has been a very weird sort of NFL draft run-up in terms of what has been available, what you like being really all that sexy 'cause you have to lay a lot of juice.
20:42
You have-- Do you have any bets thus far? I can't remember the last time I've had this few bets this late in the process, which I'm okay with.
20:50
I mean, you start getting the situation where you're chasing information, and you, you put yourself in a position where you, you...
20:56
It, it's hard to bet every piece of news, so it's kind of been a blessing in disguise that not, not much has been offered.
21:00
The one thing I did add this week, uh, Raiders to draft a defensive lineman with their first pick at 10 to one, just because I, I heard the Bear, I heard Chris Fleek on with you, you know, last week or the week before.
21:11
He's talked about he doesn't buy the idea that Genti is gonna be their pick, and he's odds on to be the Raiders pick, just with how deep the running back class is, how much stuff the Raiders need.
21:20
So if you don't think that Genti's the pick, I just think that there's a chance they go best available player a-and they get a defensive lineman or a linebacker or something like that. Uh, those pay good prices.
21:32
Defensive line pays 10 to one. I think linebacker play- pays, uh, seven to one, like you said.
21:36
There's hasn't been much available, uh, so it, it's hard to sit here and, you know, get into stuff and try to read the tea leaves and stuff when there's not much you can really bet.
21:44
But there's starting to be which team could draft what position, over-unders. A little more has started to pop up offshore, things like that. But, uh, it's just, it's not been the same.
21:54
I don't, I don't know if it'll ever be the same. The books just don't have the- Yeah... appetite to book this stuff. They lose on it. They just, that's how they operate. They take their ball and they go home.
22:00
So I, I don't know. I, I feel like the, uh, the, the draft betting, the toothpaste is out of the tube. I don't know if it's ever gonna be as good as it was. Uh, real quick before you go, any baseball today yet?
22:11
Uh, Blue Jays, Braves under four in the first fri- uh, uh, first five here. Strider is back. He looked great in his rehab outings going against Bass, who's been pretty good. So under four in the first five.
22:21
It's like minus 118, minus 120. You gotta pay a little juice, but I think we get a low-scoring start here, Blue Jays and Braves. Will Hill, everybody. The podcast is called Shoulda Bet More. Um, man is great.
22:32
Man is great at what he does. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it as always. All right, see you guys. Thanks. Will Hill from North Carolina, and not the Will Hill. JVT's got his NBA thoughts. We will get them in volume next.
22:45
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Download Profit X today with code VSIN and earn up to 200 in profit cash over your first month. I usually, uh, end some of these promos by saying check it out. I really mean it. Check it out. It will be worth your time.
23:39
Profit X. Um, Scola Alexander. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. Bo Murphy, "Are you gonna have Mark Borchardt on again for any more parlays soon?"
23:49
And he has the, uh, the Dave Chappelle character that's always, uh, scratching his neck. [laughs] Fiending for something, if you know what I mean. Apparently he hit his Arizona-Philadelphia parlay yesterday.
23:57
Is that what that's about? Yeah. Think so. Sure did. We will. Mark Borchardt, weekly guest here on the show. I can guarantee you Mark will be back. I can guarantee you he'll have parlays. That's right.
24:05
Scola Uh, said, "I believe JVT said plus 750 on the ED prop." We'll get to JVT here momentarily to confirm that on the rebounds prop. JasonH11, uh, said, "Mitch Moss laddered the ED rebound props last night."
24:18
Well, I know, I know the, uh, I know J- well, we're gonna hear from JVT. The text message I received though was it was as high as it would go.
24:26
[laughs] It was 17 plus, so [laughs] Now, that would of course be the Warriors', right, Achilles heel is, is, uh, defending a big man down low. Uh, Fred Courier, "15-yard penalty on overbooking guest.
24:37
Is that an automatic first down?" Yes, automatic first down. Much to the chagrin of the, uh, of the Detroit Lions, it's an automatic first down. Jamie Leyva, "Did I hear a Guy reference this morning, Gil?
24:48
This show is my jam. Have a fantastic day, gentlemen." Yes you did. Thank you. Somebody out there got it. Guy, original album. Debut s- debut album from Guy, 1988, Kelly. Which Guy? Teddy Riley, Aaron Hall.
25:03
Wet Willie Colon. No idea. Can't imagine... By the way, I say Wet Willie Colon and everybody corrects me and says Wet Willie Colón. It's like Bartolo Colón's brother or something.
25:11
Says, uh, "Can't imagine Dubs fans feel great after last night. Jimmy and Steph have to go nuclear to beat a very average Grizzly team with a banged up Morant and Charmin Soft Triple J shooting six of 15."
25:21
I think a lot of people probably feel that way, I have to say. It's an interesting point. Yeah.
25:24
I think you saw Memphis deploy some tactics as well that we're gonna see Houston do even better, where it's, I, I mean, look, it was, it was, hey, we're gonna make [laughs] Jimmy Butler and Steph beat us. They did.
25:36
But, uh, I mean, you got a lot of, you got a lot of guys on the court for Golden State that can't really shoot, and Memphis chose to leave wide open, let Gary Payton shoot all night long.
25:44
And you're gonna see Houston, I think, take that same, uh, uh, same approach. Shrek McPhee doing a, uh, Carlitos Eiga parlay for Stuttgart and Barcelona plus 385. I will not, uh, in any way say that's a bad bet.
25:56
Chad Lee wants to know, "Is a, uh, beating the book investigation in order? Golden State minus 400 series price? Where was that mystery shop?" He said, "The bettors demand an answer." I don't know.
26:06
I got it, I, I just got it texted to me last night. Oh, okay. Sorry about that. Very- Stuttgart... very poor numbers game investigation.
26:12
And Jason, uh, Stark just letting everybody know, or letting Will Hill know, uh, just some light flurries this morning in Connecticut. It was 70 yesterday, though. Uh, JVT joins us, ladies and gentlemen.
26:21
Jonathan Von Tobel, he's our senior NBA analyst, joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line now. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at MeJVT. John, how you doing, man? Uh, pretty good. Pretty good.
26:31
Very excited for the post-season. Saturday's gonna be great.
26:35
Uh, my in-laws come in on Friday, which means I get to pass the buck off of being a child and rearing children, uh, over to said in-laws so I can watch basketball all day. So I'm very excited. [laughs] Yeah.
26:45
I saw John last night. I met his lovely wife and, and, and I said to him, I go, "You know you have two kids back..." He's like, "No, they're taken care of." [laughs] I thought, thought he forgot about 'em momentarily.
26:52
So they're all well taken care of. One watches the other one, right? That's right. Right, John? Isn't that how it works? Correct. Yeah. Four eyes are better than none.
26:57
John, what about that, uh, what about that Warriors-Rockets line?
27:01
And what about the comment made by, by our listener who was like, "Hey, Warriors fans can't feel too good about that," yet they come out there at minus 200, $2 favorites against the Rockets. What say you about that?
27:12
I, so I think it's a little too high. Um, I, I thought this was gonna be, like, minus 150 or so in favor of Golden State.
27:17
I, I do think that there are some flaws with the way the Warriors are constructed that the, the Houston Rockets could take advantage of.
27:23
We've now seen in two straight standalone games, as we kind of knew going into those anyway, uh, I don't know if you guys know this, the Warriors are small. Uh, they are very, very small.
27:31
And Alperen Şengün I think can have a very big series when you're talking about attacking the glass here for Golden State. But they have been dominated on the glass in two consecutive games.
27:41
They have given up high second chance opportunities to both of their last two opponents, and of course the common thread being that there is a very big man at center for both of those teams, and they get another good center here in this series in Alperen Şengün.
27:52
They have Amen Thompson to kind of hound Steph Curry. He did a brilliant job in that game coming up on two weeks now ago, uh, in that match up where the Rockets went out and won that contest against Golden State.
28:02
I, I just think that the Rockets are matched, or match up better and are much more competitive than what the series price would indicate given the flaws.
28:09
And I, I thought Kelly made up a very good point, which is the thing that I actually, I, I voiced when this team first got together and I still think is a thing, which is at any one point you're probably playing, like, three non-shooters, Steph Curry, and then, like, a half a shooter that you gotta respect.
28:22
Yeah. And, and a, and a very good defensive team that is very well coached by Ime Udoka, is going to ri- really try to pick at that scab, if you will, and allow that to happen.
28:32
So it's not that I think the Warriors, uh, are gonna lose this series, but I think that this is a long and tough series for Golden State.
28:38
And I think the probability of the Rockets winning that series is, uh, larger than what the market would indicate.
28:43
So value on the series price, and then subsequently value on, you know, plus one and a half games and two and a half games for the Rockets in this series, too.
28:49
Would you make a bet, and how would you make it, if so, in the Magic-Celtics series? That one not, not so much.
28:56
I, so I, I think this could be one of those series where it's actually somewhat similar to that Indiana series last year for, for the Celtics, right? Where it was just a hard fought sweep for Boston.
29:05
I, I think the Magic are very good on defense. They're a very big team. They're long. They can force turnovers.
29:11
They can guard the Celtics relatively well because they have the comparable size and athleticism to do so and to make this thing into a grind. But guys, like, the math battle is just too much, I think, for Orlando.
29:22
You're talking about a team in the, in Boston that takes a ton of threes, makes a ton of threes. Cel- or Magic are bottom tier in both takes and makes from beyond the arc.
29:30
I just don't think they're gonna be able to keep up, and they walk into each game with a massive deficit to overcome in terms of just average makes per contest. And I think that plays out in a relatively short series.
29:39
You know, in, in a series like this, if you wanted to go Boston in four at, at about, what, what is it? Plus 110 or something like that. I think we, yeah, plus 105 there. Mm. I'm blind without my glasses. Plus 105, yeah.
29:48
Uh, yeah, four, yeah, four and one, uh, there as well. I think that's how you're attacking this thing. I think this is a relatively short series, uh, for the Boston Celtics to get this thing done.
29:56
By the way, back to your Şengün point. I just went over the five games, uh, this year against the Dubs. Double double in the first, 16 and eight in the second, and then the last three, 26 and 10, 10, 13- Yep... 19, 14.
30:09
I, I think the crazy part to think about with this, John, is, is, is not only that we've seen them rolling out the double bigs towards the end of the season, Steven Adams and Şengün on the court at the same time.
30:19
I- it's just, I don't know how much... S- sometimes we think of smaller teams playing bigs off the court, but if you have guys that can't shoot or, or you're okay- Yep...
30:27
leaving open to shoot, fine, they'll, they can roll those bigs out there with- without an issue. So I, it's gonna be really interesting to see how, how these teams ch- choose to match up with each other.
30:37
All right, John- Yeah, and- Oh, go ahead. I'm sorry...
30:38
oh, sorry, I just wanted to point just really quick, and yesterday too, this really good example is, like, if you have a better team in terms of being able to offensive rebound and in terms of being able to generate those second chance opportunities and take advantage of them, you can really make hay.
30:49
Yesterday, guys, the, the Grizzlies grabbed 40% of their missed shots. That's an insane rate- [laughs]...
30:54
when you're talking about that if you look at offensive rebounding rate, and I think the Rockets are really gonna be able to do that.
31:00
And yet if Jimmy the Greek had that column, the old NFL Today column, at the bottom instead of intangibles, he'd have awesomeness, and the Warriors would have a big check mark- Oh, yeah... under awesomeness.
31:08
Jimmy Butler's incredible. Um- Just incredible... anything tonight in the 910s? Yeah, so I did, the only thing I bet is I do have the Bulls money line against, um, against Miami.
31:18
I just think this is a price thing for me. I, I just, I think this should be closer to you assuming that these two teams are equals to one another on a neutral as opposed to assuming the Heat are the better team.
31:28
We have seen nothing since the All-Star break that would indicate that Miami is the better team, and yet when you're looking at one here in a play-in game on the road for Miami, this would indicate that the market thinks that Miami is better.
31:38
I just don't think that's the case. We have seen since that break 17 and 10 for the Chicago Bulls, one of the better cover teams in the NBA over that stretch. Very good defensive rating over that stretch.
31:47
They take a ton of threes as well themselves. I think it's just a matchup that works for them.
31:51
But just from a pure price standpoint, that there was some value in Chicago, so I laid a minus 115 money line, and I think that's the way to play this here tonight.
31:57
All right, and then any series price bets or game one bets in the series that start this weekend?
32:03
Yes, uh, at the risk of this is I've now brought up the Clippers many times and my background has gone dark, so please let's not do this- [laughs]... but I did. Uh, how about this?
32:11
Bet the Clippers, uh, to win the series at plus 130. We have flipped here, uh, at some spots. We're up to minus 120 in others. It's a pick in other spots. I agree with this move.
32:20
I, now I think pick is more apt than, like, upwards of minus 125, so if you're starting to get that, like, plus 110 or something like that on the Nuggets, I do think there's some inherent value there.
32:29
But, but I think the Clippers have been rolling, and I think they match up well. They have Kawhi Leonard obviously playing at a very high level. They have Chris Dunn to guard Jamal Murray.
32:36
Avich Zubac won't be able to shut down Jokic, but what he'll be able to do is work him on offense on the other side of the floor, which will make Jokic have a very, very large workload on his shoulders.
32:46
So I do have the Clippers here to win this series. Also bet over five and a half games in Knicks and Pistons at minus 115. I think that's up to minus 125. I think that's still a fair price to lay.
32:55
I think the Pistons are gonna be very competitive in that series with the Knicks. I think it's gonna be a lot longer than the market initially indicated.
33:00
We're also starting to see some money come in on Detroit, would still say anything over plus 300 is worth playing in an outright series price too for the Detroit Pistons as well.
33:08
And, uh, in that series too, was attracted to Karl-Anthony Towns 12 to one to lead the series in three-point makes. Wow, very thorough.
33:16
As bad as, we'll leave you with this, as, as bad as the Warriors, uh, Rockets line is, Clippers-Nuggets still one of the worst lines you've ever seen opening series price? Oh, yeah, I mean, some spots opened minus 190.
33:28
That was pretty crazy. Yeah, nuts. John, thank you. I appreciate it, sir. Yeah, you got it, guys. By the way, 80 was plus 750 for 17 plus rebounds yesterday. Plus 750, confirmation. Thank you, John. Appreciate that.
33:38
Uh, @meJVT- Nice skin... from Jonathan Von Tobel. Jason Weingarten, all his bets next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
The Sharp Blaze wants you to know that they have an unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros.
34:07
Check them out at sharpplays.com. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
34:15
Um, see that, uh, Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah appearance on Ryan Russillo's show yesterday, courtesy of The Ringer, um, where they talked about Ashton Jeanty- Mm... specifically.
34:28
Um, obviously the, uh, the top of the NFL draft somewhat solidified. Maybe we should go through that exercise real quick. Let, you, you stop me when you think you don't know. Ready? Top of the NFL draft, okay?
34:39
Um, Cam Ward is going to the Titans. Yes. Cam Ward is going to the Titans. Travis Hunter is going to the Browns. Meh, probably. [laughs] Cam Ward is going to the Titans. Travis Hunter is going to the Browns.
34:50
Abdul Carter is going to the Giants. Probably. Ward- I don't know either of those, though... all right, and here's the, here's where I think- I'm not as certain as Drew Dincic is.
34:58
No, Drew Dincic, very confident, very confident. How about this one? Ward, one, to the, to the Titans. Hunter, two, to the Browns. Carter, three, to the Giants. Will Campbell, offensive lineman, four, to the Patriots.
35:11
Yeah, I think that, I actually think that one makes a lot of sense. Then how about Mason Graham, defensive lineman, Michigan, to the Jaguars at five?
35:18
He, he's the, he's the name that's been attached to a team for probably the longest, right? Yeah, yeah. Maybe outside of Cam Ward.
35:25
So with, about Ashton Jeanty, who is, yes, uh, to, to answer your question, w- Ashton Jeanty, who is some think are, is going to the Raiders at six.
35:35
McShay yesterday, I thought it was really, you talk about, like, a strong take. He thinks Jeanty, his quote was, would be a top 10 pick. Remember, his draft position is nine and a half.
35:46
But he said Jeanty would be a top 10 pick in any draft. I was like, "Wow, uh, that's stronger than I've heard- Yeah... anybody on Jeanty." And Daniel Jeremiah backs it up by saying
35:58
he has Jeanty rated as the third-best player on his board, and Tyler Warren, a tight end, keep in mind we're talking about a running back- He, right, yeah... and a tight end. Yeah.
36:08
And Tyler Warren as the seventh-best player on his board. Now, that doesn't mean Jeremiah was very, was, was a lot less,
36:16
I thought he, he was, he was picking his, choosing his words carefully because just because he has them third and seventh doesn't mean they will nev- necessarily get drafted, uh, as such, right?
36:25
Sure, your positional value comes into play. Yes, because Jeremiah's point about Jeanty was, yeah, but if you draft a running back, you want like, like the Lions did with Jahmyr Gibbs, you want your pieces in place. Yes.
36:36
You want your offensive line solidified so that you maximize the already short arc of a career of a running back.
36:42
So I just thought that was an interesting exchange where they're both super high on Jeanty and, in the case of Jeremiah, super high on Warren, and
36:52
w- where, where have we gotten to the point, this makes this draft even more interesting, where we have a running back and a tight end that highly, um, evaluated, yet Will the Raiders have the onions to draft a running back at six when they are not the Lions in terms of their offensive line?
37:07
Yeah, I think. I, I, me- me and you both think they should go elsewhere. We'll see. I, I, that's, I mean, most of the draft experts have ha- have him, I would say, top five, top three on their big boards.
37:16
That's what I've consistently seen. But it's just, it's a running back. It's a running back. Running back. I think that matters.
37:20
I, and I love Ashton Jeanty, but I never, and I've said this before on the show, and I could be way wrong, I never thought he'd be a generational running back in the NFL. Yeah.
37:30
Just based on size, based on level of competition in college. I could be very wrong. Yeah, question, I mean, that's- Could be very wrong... fair, fair questions. By the way, series prices, uh, coming down.
37:38
Warriors, we've seen minus 165 and minus 170 a couple places now, so that makes sense. And how about Clippers? Minus 133 over at BetOnline right now. That is, so that's almost a dollar mistake now. Yeah. Almost.
37:53
A dollar move on that from the, from the Nuggets being 165 in some spots. That's amazing. Uh, Jason Weingarten joins us now from under a cloud of smoke somewhere in Southern California.
38:03
Comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @spreadapedia. What's happening, Jason? Good morning. How's it going? How you doing, man? You betting any, have you made any NFL draft bets?
38:15
No. Um, I have less access to a lot of these props at, uh, offshores, so it has been less of my, uh, p- I've paid less attention to it. It's just not, not really my thing this year.
38:30
To your point, the, the bookmaker, the bets that I made at Bookmaker yesterday, the ones that I added yesterday, they're gone already. They're not even, they're not even up this morning.
38:37
Yeah, 'cause they're d- they, uh, you have shops doing that too, right? Yeah. Post- posting and then- On and off... pulling them down. Yep. So it's, it's super frustrating as well. How about the NBA playoffs?
38:45
I know you're not necessarily an NBA guy, but have you bet anything? I bet the under in the, uh, the Hawks game last night, so I had a little bit of action just mostly for my, uh, my own entertainment.
38:59
I am interested in the Lakers in the first round. I think they get it done against Timberwolves.
39:04
Uh, I'd like to see LeBron make one more run, but uh, you know, I don't, I don't really have any particular insight into the, the NBA playoffs, unfortunately. Just clarifying, not a Lakers fan? Not a Lakers fan?
39:17
No, not a Lakers fan. Okay. Just clarifying. Uh, all right, baseball. What, what do, what do you like today? Uh, [clears throat] um, I like Padres.
39:25
Padres minus 115, Guardians plus 111, and Spencer Strider making his, uh, season debut against Blue Jays. Uh, Braves really need him right now, minus 138 for the Braves today. Uh, I like Strider.
39:41
His last, uh, last tune-up in Triple-A a couple days ago, he had 13 strikeouts in five innings, so, uh, looks like he's ready to go. I think 138, cheap for Strider today.
39:50
Would you, would you put any down on Strider to win? I mean, we're only, we're still in April, right? Anybody can win any award. Are, are you interested in any Strider money for Cy Young, 20 to one, sight unseen?
40:01
Uh, 20 is probably pretty, pretty low. I think you could easily get 25 or 30 if you looked around. I did mention Hunter Green last week. He was still double digits.
40:13
He's the second favorite now down to 370, so kind of happy with what I'm holding there with Hunter Green right now, and uh, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, his number's come down a little bit. He's 12 to one at FanDuel right now.
40:26
So, um, yeah, I don't know.
40:29
I mean, if I was looking for another guy, he'd probably be pretty high on the list of, of guys I, I would, you know, wanna bet, but I have at least three Cy Young tickets right now, so probably- You're good...
40:40
probably mostly [audio glitch] Yeah. Uh, Rockies Dodgers series. I'm a little surprised, I've been saying all week, that it didn't get up to like $4, uh, let alone five, but I, I'm surprised that it didn't get up to $4.
40:52
The run line's coming home both nights, um, was a little more dicey the first night than last night. Should this be an autoplay? By the way, it's only minus 285 on the money line tonight. Should a run line- Yeah...
41:04
bet be a, be a autoplay? Going up a little bit. Uh, see Bobby Miller, I think, making his first start of the season tonight, too.
41:13
Uh, don't really love laying 300 like that, minus 300, on a guy making his first start of the season, even if it is against the Rockies. Uh, I did bet the run line last night.
41:24
I see it's a little pricier tonight, not much. Um, yeah, I mean, if you start making it a habit, you're just gonna bet the Dodgers run line every game. You're, you're probably gonna keep doing it.
41:34
I don't know if it's necessarily any value. It's probably m- you know, probably pretty accurately priced at this point, but, um, it's not gonna stop people from betting it every day, myself included.
41:44
Well, and, and I'm not saying every night. I'm saying every night they play the Rockies at home is what [laughs], is what I'm saying. Just 'cause the Rockies are so offensively anemic.
41:53
It's just, it's historical at this point. Yeah, it's, it's noticeable. Um, it's definitely a thing with the Rockies. They're, uh, they have some problems, but,
42:02
uh, no, I mean, the Dodgers, it's, it's a good bet, you know. They, they're, they're just a, a strong team top to bottom. It, it, uh, it's a really good team. Watch 'em- Any other,
42:12
any other bets in baseball today, or was that it so far? That's it. Uh, I bet a little bit more on Roki Sasaki to win the Rookie of the Year.
42:19
If you've been following the Rookie of the Year race at all, he kinda jumped out to five to one. He drifted out, and now he's back to about plus 230. He's the favorite again.
42:27
It just doesn't seem like anybody in the, uh, the NL Rookie of the Year race has really separated themselves yet, so there's definitely still some value there.
42:36
Uh, the rest of the markets, you see pretty short favorites already, and then, uh, there's Aaron Judge. He's already minus 200 for the, uh, AL MVP, which is a little crazy, but I kinda get it.
42:46
If it's, if it's not Judge, though, and again, it's, it's April 16th for God sakes, right? What's, what's the bet you would make? If I said you must make an AL MVP bet, what is it?
42:56
Man, I'd, I'd have to go farther down the list, you know, probably to the, the outside of the top five or so. I still like Jose Ramirez, 45 to one.
43:05
Um, you know, he's, he's a guy I think fits the profile every year and just never gets kind of the respect he deserves at the end of the day.
43:13
Um, other than that, maybe, maybe Corey Seager, 'cause, you know, I love Corey Seager, but, um, I don't know. Mike Trout? Mike Trout's still almost 20 to one. He's, he's playing pretty well, but I don't know.
43:25
Aaron Judge just got a hold on the, the narrative and it kinda, kinda weird. A team that has surprised you the most in the early going, either to the good or the bad, that you think is most, uh, ripe for regression.
43:38
The Angels have surprised me. They've played better than I expected. They show up and are competing every day. Um, they're actually in second place in the AL, AL West right now, so congratulations to them.
43:51
Um, I think they've been probably one of the teams that has impressed me the most 'cause I expected nothing out of them.
43:56
But, uh, the worst team, I will tell you, I, I said this last time and I'll tell you it again, it's the Pittsburgh Pirates because they're not committed to winning.
44:05
Top to bottom, their organization is staffed by people that aren't committed to winning, and that makes you a loser. And that ma- [laughs] that makes you a loser. Interested in, what was it, 28 to one?
44:15
28 to one for worst record? Yeah, I mean, they can get there.
44:19
They, they really don't have much outside of schemes, um, you know, pitching wise, and they're not, they're not committed to, uh, to getting talent, so sure, I don't mind that. Jason Weingarten, everybody.
44:30
Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. A little RBC Heritage Golf on the other side.
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